International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Volume 7, Issue 1, Jan-Feb 2016, pp. 337-357, Article ID: IJCIET_07_01_028

Available online at
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=7&IType=1
Journal Impact Factor (2016): 9.7820 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com
ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316
IAEME Publication

A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR OZONE

UPLIFTING IN OBSTRUCTION PRONE
ENVIRONMENT
Terry Henshaw
Africa Center of Excellence, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers state, Nigeria
Ify L. Nwaogazie
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
Vincent Weli
Department of Geography and Environmental Science,
University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
ABSTRACT
A model for predicting uplifting of ozone gas in obstruction prone areas is
developed. The model is dependent on ground level temperature, four metre
height temperature, wind speed and solar radiationand the obstruction used in
this research is an existing four metre fence wall. With data points established
both inside and outside the fence wall, and four metre height above the ground
level of the inside and outside positions, data were collected for five days at
two hour intervals. The Buckinghams -method of dimensional analysis was
adopted to develop this model and collated field measurements were used to
calibrate the model through regression. Results show that the model
developed for Ozone uplifting attained a correlation coefficient of
0.996.Verification of the model showed a correlation coefficient of 0.905 and
a mean square error (MSE) of 0.0007 between the predicted and observed
ozone concentration. Detailed statistical sensitivity analysis carried out
showed temperature as the most important meteorological parameter and
solar radiation as the least important in case of pollutant uplifting.
Verification of the modified model without the solar radiation term showed a
correlation coefficient of 0.905 and a MSE of 0.0007 between the predicted
and observed ozone concentrations and this confirmed solar radiation as the
least important meteorological parameter in obstruction environment.NO 2,
SO2 and TSP showed poor correlation coefficients of 0.03, 0.45 and 6.2,
respectively when uplifting models were calibrated and verified for them, they
also showed statistically that ground level temperature is the most significant

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Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

meteorological parameter for pollutant uplifting in obstruction prone

environment.
Key words: Uplifting, Obstruction, Ozone, Air, Pollutant, Predictive model
Cite this Article: Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli, A
Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment,
International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 7(1), 2016, pp.
337-357.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=7&IType=1

1. INTRODUCTION
Air pollution models have generally failed to accurately predict concentration of
pollutants (Lolymer, 2011). Most of these failures have been attributed to
environmental conditions for which these models were not developed to handle.
Literature has recorded different models which have been developed for different
environmental configuration. Some of these models have shown improvement when
compared to Gaussian models (Henricheen, 1986; Stull, 1988).
Most of the existing air pollution models can be classified as follows :(i)Those
that have incorporated wind speed and vertical eddy diffusivity as a power function of
vertical height (Seinfeld, 1986; Lin and Hildemann, 1996); (ii) Those that have
incorporated wind speed as a function of height and eddy diffusivity as a function of
downwind distance (Sharan and modani, 2006); (iii) Models that have incorporated
wind speed as a function of vertical height and vertical eddy diffusivity as a function
of both vertical height and downwind distance from the source (Sharan and Kumar,
2009); and (iv) Models that have incorporated low wind and unbounded region
(Anikender and Goyal, 2013).Obstructions from artificial and natural facilities have
also been attributed to failures of dispersion models in predicting pollutant
concentration. These obstructions impede the flow from the direction of the source.
Works have been carried out on different aspects of obstruction to pollutant
dispersion.
Works of Zhao-Lin and others (2011) considered street canyons as the obstruction
and concentrated on the effect on uneven heights of buildings given that earlier works
had considered even heights. Works of Yucong and others (2014) also considered
street canyons but tried to use different street canyon configurations. Flow pattern
inside the street canyon has been studied to be controlled by flow wind velocity,
building shapes, atmospheric instability and height of building (Xie and others, 2005;
Niachou and others, 2008; Hang and others, 2010; Baik and others, 2000; Ahmad and
others, 2005). As a result of these obstructions poor air quality has been recorded at
pedestrian levels. Air recirculation has been seen to be the major reason why
pollutants do not move in the wind ward direction (Depaul and Sheih, 1986;
Oke,1988).Many methods have been used to investigate obstruction of pollutants
dispersion where mostly street canyons have been used as the obstruction. These
widely used methods are the in-situ measurements (Depaul and Sheih, 1986; Kumar
and others, 2009; Li and others, 2007) and the computational fluid dynamic (CFD)
simulations (Baik and others, 2000; Yang and shao, 2008; Murena and others, 2009;
Gu and others, 2010; Balczo and others, 2009).Works of Harisankar and Paruthuraj
(2010) used a hill slope as the obstruction to flow and results also showed pollutant
recirculation but at the summit of the hill and this grows intense with steeper slopes.

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

Left out of literature is a model to predict the concentration of pollutant at a height

above ground level in obstruction prone areas and a sensitivity analysis to see which
meteorological parameter plays the major role in vertical uplifting of pollutants in
obstruction environments as it is obvious that wind speed is the major meteorological
parameter responsible fordispersing air pollutants in non-obstruction environments
(Andrej and others, 2015; Seinfeld, 1986).
Xie and others (2005) observed the effect of solar radiation on pollutant dispersion
in street canyons. They observed that the heating of the earths surface causes some
sort of buoyancy force which helps to disperse pollutants by reducing pollutant
concentration in street canyons. Works of Henshaw and others (2015) have observed
surface solar radiation as high as 1220 W/m2which is capable of heating the earths
surface to as high as 39 0C in the southern part of Nigeria and this can be used to an
advantage in case of obstruction to wind direction.
The pollutant used to demonstrate this effect of uplifting is the ozone gas. Ground
level Ozone is a secondary pollutant formed from nitrogen oxides and VOCs in the
presence of sunlight, it is colorless and the impact to health on exposure is that it
affects the human respiratory system especially the lungs. The World Bank group in
1998 has generalized short term concentrations to be within 300 800 g/m3 in urban
regions.
This work addresses the problem by using a 4 metre wall within a high activity
area as the obstruction in the windward direction and considering meteorological
parameters like wind speed, solar radiation and temperatures using the dimensional
analysis approach.
The use of the Buckinghams -method in Dimensional Analysis has been
recorded in literature as a means of deriving empirical models wherein calibrations
are done with experimental data or field measurements via the linear or multiple
regression analysis (Afangideh, 2008).
This work is aimed at developing a model which is capable of predicting ozone
concentration above ground level in obstruction prone areas where the obstruction is
in the direction of the wind. The obstruction used in this work is a four metre fence
wall within a high activity area. The proposed model is dependent of ground level
temperature, four metre height temperature, solar radiation and wind speed.

2. MATERIALS AND METHOD

2.1. Study Area
The study area for this work is the section of Choba Park, one of the three campuses
of the University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria. The exact location of Choba Park where
measurements were made is within the small exit gate of the park. This section of
Choba Park comprises of high commercial activities with respect to small kiosk for
sale of snacks and business centers that do printing/photocopying jobs and sales of
stationeries, etc. With the insufficiency in power supply these business own
generators which are always left on when the central power supply is unavailable.
Mostly students and lecturers do business in these areas and most of these business
centers have been observed to run till 8.00 pm. Outside the Choba park premises is
the Choba junction which is one of the busiest junctions in Port Harcourt because it
serves as an exit towards the western region of Nigeria. Figures 1 and 2 represent the
study area; Choba park (Figure 1) and enlarged position of pollutant measurement
(Figure 2)

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Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

Figure 1 Study area showing observation point and weather station point

Figure 2 Study area showing details of the observation point

2.2. Measuring Equipment

The Equipment used for this work are as listed in Table 1
Table1 List of Equipment used for Ozone uplifting modeling
S/N
1
2
3
4

Equipment
Military compass
Weather station
Solar radiation meter
Aeroqual gas monitor

Number
1
1
1
4

Purpose
To determine the direction of the poles
To measure meteorological parameters
To measure solar radiation
To measure pollutant gases

2.3. Procedure
A total of four locations were established for observation of ozone gas. Two of these
locations are inside the Choba park premises by the fence and the other two outside
the park premises by the fence. Both inside and outside locations comprise of ground
and a four metre height point. The weather station was installed at 10 metres from the
ground level. The observation of ozone was carried out for five days with a time
interval of two hours. The solar radiation was measured hourly from sun rise at about
6.00 am to 9.00 pm for the 5-day duration.

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

2.4. Model Formulation and Development

The technique used for model development is the Buckinghams -method and the
various parameters considered are presented in Table 2 with their corresponding
symbols and dimensions.
Table 2 Proposed model parameters for Ozone uplifting modeling
S/N

Variable

Symbol

1
2
3
4
5

Height
Wind speed
Solar radiation
Temperature at ground level
Temperature at four metre height above
ground
Pollutant concentration at ground level

H
v
I
TGL
TH

Dimensions
LMT
L
LT-1
MT-3

CGL

ML-3

Pollutant concentration at four metre height

above ground

CH

ML-3

6
7

Let the pollutant concentration, CH be a function of the six parameters listed in

Table 2, viz
CH = f (H, v, I, TH, TGL, CGL) ..Equation (1)

Where number of variables n = 7; m = number of standard units=4; and Number

of s according to Buckingham theory = n-m(7-4=3)
Thus, Equation (1) can be rewritten as:
) = 0.Equation (2)

F(

Selecting the repeating variables as H, v, I, and CGL, the - models become:

= (H, v, I,CGL,CH) .......Equation (3)
= (H, v, I,CGL,CGL)..Equation (4)
= (H, v, I,TGL,TH) ...Equation (5)

As a typical example,
is evaluated by substituting the applicable dimensions
(from Table 1) to Equation (3), to obtain Equation (6):
=

.Equation (6)

By relating the constants a, b, and c to Length, L; Mass, M; Time, T and

Temperature, the resulting three simultaneous Equations were solved with the
following results: a=0,b=3,c=-1 and d=0, respectively. Thus, Equation (6) becomes:
=

.. Equation (7)

Adopting similar procedure we obtain the following results for Equations (4) and (5),
respectively
=

Equation (8)

...Equation (9)

Thus, Equation (2) can be rewritten as

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Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

.Equation (10)

=
or
=

Equation (11)

Let
Y=

; x1 =

and x2 =

That is, Y=

or
Ln Y = a Ln

+ b Ln

+ K..Equation (12)

2.5. Model Calibration

Using multiply regression software on Microsoft excel, the model (Equation 12) was
developed for prediction of O3 at four metre height above ground level. Table 3
presents field data from the observation of Ozone concentrations and estimation of x 1,
x2 and Y as in Equation (12). Table 4 presents a modified version of Table 3 by
striking out all zeros, Table 5 shows the regression analysis summary and the
calibrated model for the prediction of O3 pollutant at 4 metre above ground height as
per Equation (12)

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

Table 3 Input Data Table

S/N

DAY

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

MON

TUE

WED

THUR

FRI

TEMP
@ GL
25
28
31
34
37
33
29
27
26
25
28
31
34
37
33
29
27
26
24
27
30
35
30
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
36
30
29
27
26
26
24
27
36
30
31
32
29

TEMP
@ 4m
29
28
32
31
34
33
28
26
26
29
28
32
31
34
33
28
26
26
24
27
30
33
29
26
26
26
25
24
25
26
26
28
29
26
26
25
23
26
29
35
36
32
30

SR

WS

CGL

C4M

x1

x2

Lnx1

Lnx2

LnY

0
280
350.9
413.8
1220
600
14
0
0
0
280
350.9
413.8
1220
600
14
0
0
0
240.6
151.2
1025
83
37.8
12.4
0
0
0
14.1
21.9
102
250
170.1
16
0
0
0
60.2
341
1092
639
422.5
79.2

0
4.8
9.7
8
11.3
12.9
4.8
1.6
1.6
0
4.8
9.7
8
11.3
12.9
4.8
1.6
1.6
1.6
4.8
4.8
6.4
12.9
6.4
1.6
0
0
0
0
1.6
0
4.8
3.2
1.6
0
1.6
0
0
1.6
0
4.8
3.2
1.6

0
0
0.26
0
0
0
0.01
0
0.28
0.3
0.26
0.25
0.37
0.31
0.34
0.29
0.27
0.29
0.25
0.25
0.28
0.29
0.39
0.3
0.3
0.21
0.25
0.26
0.31
0.3
0.3
0.33
0.27
0.25
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.38
0.3
0.37
0.43
0.36
0.33

0
0.28
0.28
0.32
0
0.25
0.02
0.32
0
0.27
0.28
0.3
0.4
0.32
0.35
0.35
0.29
0.3
0.24
0.25
0.29
0.25
0.4
0.29
0.29
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.31
0.27
0.27
0.36
0.29
0.26
0.27
0.29
0.3
0.31
0.38
0.4
0.46
0.36
0.35

#DIV/0!
0
0.676247
0
0
0
0.078994
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.102693
0.650237
0.457806
0.366638
1.216457
2.290834
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.114913
0.2048
0.074168
10.08685
2.080508
0.099097
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0
0.05611
0
0.145981
0.052013
0.064
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0
0.003604
0
0.07442
0.027921
0.017067

1.16
1
1.032258
0.911765
0.918919
1
0.965517
0.962963
1
1.16
1
1.032258
0.911765
0.918919
1
0.965517
0.962963
1
1
1
1
0.942857
0.966667
0.962963
0.962963
1
0.961538
0.96
1
1.04
0.722222
0.933333
1
0.962963
1
0.961538
0.958333
0.962963
0.805556
1.166667
1.16129
1
1.034483

#DIV/0!
0.110592
0.728266
0.39594
0
0.894454
0.157989
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.110592
0.780285
0.494925
0.378465
1.252235
2.7648
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.114913
0.212114
0.063938
10.34549
2.011158
0.095794
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0
0.050499
0
0.159252
0.055865
0.06656
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0
0.004564
0
0.079612
0.027921
0.018101

#DIV/0!
#NUM!
-0.3912
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
-2.53838
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
-2.27602
-0.43042
-0.78131
-1.00338
0.195943
0.828916
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
-2.16358
-1.58572
-2.60143
2.311233
0.732612
-2.31166
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#NUM!
-2.88045
#NUM!
-1.92428
-2.95627
-2.74887
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#NUM!
-5.62584
#NUM!
-2.59803
-3.57839
-4.07063

0.14842
0
0.03175
-0.0924
-0.0846
0
-0.0351
-0.0377
0
0.14842
0
0.03175
-0.0924
-0.0846
0
-0.0351
-0.0377
0
0
0
0
-0.0588
-0.0339
-0.0377
-0.0377
0
-0.0392
-0.0408
0
0.03922
-0.3254
-0.069
0
-0.0377
0
-0.0392
-0.0426
-0.0377
-0.2162
0.15415
0.14953
0
0.0339

#DIV/0!
-2.20191
-0.31709
-0.92649
#NUM!
-0.11154
-1.84523
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
-2.20191
-0.2481
-0.70335
-0.97163
0.22493
1.016968
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
-2.16358
-1.55063
-2.74985
2.336551
0.698711
-2.34556
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#NUM!
-2.98581
#NUM!
-1.83726
-2.88481
-2.70965
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#NUM!
-5.38946
#NUM!
-2.53059
-3.57839
-4.01179

SR- Solar Radiation; WS-Wind Speed; CGL Pollutant Concentration At Ground Level;
C4M- Pollutant Concentration At Four Metre Height Level

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Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

Table 4 Modified Input Data Table
TEMP
@ GL

S/N

TEMP
@ 4m

SR

WS

PGL

P4M

X1

X2

LnX1

LnX2

LnY

31

32

350.9

9.7

0.26

0.28

0.67625

1.032

0.728266

-0.3912

0.031749

-0.31709

29

28

14

4.8

0.01

0.02

0.07899

0.966

0.157989

-2.5384

-0.03509

-1.84523

28

28

280

4.8

0.26

0.28

0.10269

0.110592

-2.276

-2.20191

31

32

350.9

9.7

0.25

0.3

0.65024

1.032

0.780285

-0.4304

0.031749

-0.2481

34

31

413.8

0.37

0.4

0.45781

0.912

0.494925

-0.7813

-0.09237

-0.70335

37

34

1220

11.3

0.31

0.32

0.36664

0.919

0.378465

-1.0034

-0.08456

-0.97163

33

33

600

12.9

0.34

0.35

1.21646

1.252235

0.19594

0.22493

29

28

14

4.8

0.29

0.35

2.29083

0.966

2.7648

0.82892

-0.03509

1.016968

27

27

240.6

4.8

0.25

0.25

0.11491

0.114913

-2.1636

-2.16358

10

30

30

151.2

4.8

0.28

0.29

0.2048

0.212114

-1.5857

-1.55063

11

35

33

1025

6.4

0.29

0.25

0.07417

0.943

0.063938

-2.6014

-0.05884

-2.74985

12

30

29

83

12.9

0.39

0.4

10.0869

0.967

10.34549

2.31123

-0.0339

2.336551

13

27

26

37.8

6.4

0.3

0.29

2.08051

0.963

2.011158

0.73261

-0.03774

0.698711

14

27

26

12.4

1.6

0.3

0.29

0.0991

0.963

0.095794

-2.3117

-0.03774

-2.34556

15

25

26

21.9

1.6

0.3

0.27

0.05611

1.04

0.050499

-2.8804

0.039221

-2.98581

16

30

28

250

4.8

0.33

0.36

0.14598

0.933

0.159252

-1.9243

-0.06899

-1.83726

17

29

29

170.1

3.2

0.27

0.29

0.05201

0.055865

-2.9563

-2.88481

18

27

26

16

1.6

0.25

0.26

0.064

0.963

0.06656

-2.7489

-0.03774

-2.70965

19

36

29

341

1.6

0.3

0.38

0.0036

0.806

0.004564

-5.6258

-0.21622

-5.38946

20

31

36

639

4.8

0.43

0.46

0.07442

1.161

0.079612

-2.598

0.149532

-2.53059

21

32

32

422.5

3.2

0.36

0.36

0.02792

0.027921

-3.5784

-3.57839

22

29

30

79.2

1.6

0.33

0.35

0.01707

1.034

0.018101

-4.0706

0.033902

-4.01179

Table 5 Results from Multiple Regression analysis

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.996011
0.992037
0.991199
0.168763
22

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

df
2
19
21

SS
67.41776
0.54114
67.9589

Intercept
LnX1
LnX2

Coefficients
0.055953
0.993589
-0.38145

Standard
Error
0.051002
0.020575
0.548898

MS
33.70888
0.028481

F
1183.555

Significance
F
1.15E-20

t Stat
1.097082
48.29019
-0.69493

P-value
0.286316
2.4E-21
0.495509

Lower 95%
-0.05079
0.950524
-1.5303

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344

Upper
95%
0.162702
1.036653
0.767409

Lower
95.0%
-0.05079
0.950524
-1.5303

Upper
95.0%
0.162702
1.036653
0.767409

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

From Table 5, the parameters of Equation (12) are thus, substituted to yield
Equation (13) as:
Equation (13a)

OR
Equation (13b)

Substituting the terms of Equation (11) into Equation (13) yields Equation (14) as:
Equation (14a)

OR
..

Equation (14b)

Equation (14c)

OR
Equation (15)

2.5. Model Verification

The model was verified by plotting the observed against predicted ozones (See Figure
3) and the correlation coefficient was obtained together with the mean square error
(MSE). Table 6 shows observed and predicted Ozones with differences in error.
Table 6 Observed and predicted Ozone concentrations
S/N

OBSERVED

PREDICTED
0.272334763

DIFF IN
ERROR
5.88E-05

PERCENTAGE
ERROR (%)
0.02098425

0.28

0.02

0.010893837

8.29E-05

0.414611

0.28

0.279004013

9.92E-07

0.000354282

0.3

0.261926201

0.001449614

0.483204667

0.4

0.407361415

5.42E-05

0.0135476

0.32

0.340771576

0.000431458

0.134830625

0.35

0.359114913

8.31E-05

0.0237376

0.35

0.30917434

0.001666734

0.476209714

0.25

0.268079786

0.000326879

0.1307516

10

0.29

0.299139094

8.35E-05

0.028801034

11

0.25

0.318925135

0.004750674

1.9002696

12

0.4

0.411666754

0.000136113

0.03402825

13

0.29

0.320356599

0.000921523

0.317766552

14

0.29

0.326670352

0.001344715

0.463694828

15

0.27

0.318378615

0.00234049

0.866848148

16

0.36

0.362744786

7.53E-06

0.002092736

17

0.29

0.291001258

1.00E-06

0.000345697

18

0.26

0.272989405

0.000168725

0.064894231

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Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

S/N

OBSERVED

PREDICTED
0.35719472

DIFF IN
ERROR
0.000520081

PERCENTAGE
ERROR (%)
0.136863421

19

0.38

20

0.46

0.436747523

0.000540678

0.117538696

21

0.36

0.38955228

0.000873337

0.242593611

22

0.35

0.353615691

1.31E-05

0.0037352

Estimating the Mean Square Error (MSE)

The Computation of MSE value is obtained via Equation (15), viz:
.

MSE =

Equation (16)

predicted concentration.

where N is number of observations

MSE = 0.000720732
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

y = 0.9436x + 0.025
R = 0.9059

Linear (PREDICTED)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

observed concentration.

Figure 3 Plot of observed against predicted Ozone concentration

2.7. Sensitivity Analysis

A sensitivity analysis was carried out to estimate the significance of each
meteorological parameter to the model developed as Equation (15). Table 7 presents
wind speed, ground level temperature, four metre height temperature and solar
radiation as they relate to ground level ozone and four metre height ozone
concentrations. Tables 8,9,10 and 11 present regression summaries of the significance
of each of the meteorological parameters related to pollutant uplifting.
Table 7 Field meteorological parameters with ozone concentrations
0
280

TEMP
@ GL
25
28

TEMP
@ 4M
29
28

9.7
8

350.9
413.8

31
34

5
6

11.3
12.9

1220
600

4.8

1.6

9
10
11

S/N

WS

SR

1
2

0
4.8

PGL

P4M

0
0

0
0.28

3
4

32
31

0.26
0

0.28
0.32

37
33

34
33

0
0

0
0.25

14

29

28

0.01

0.02

27

26

0.32

1.6

26

26

0.28

0
4.8

0
280

25
28

29
28

0.3
0.26

0.27
0.28

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

350.9
413.8

TEMP
@ GL
31
34

TEMP
@ 4M
32
31

11.3
12.9

1220
600

37
33

16
17

4.8
1.6

14
0

18
19

1.6
1.6

20
21

S/N

WS

SR

12
13

9.7
8

PGL

P4M

0.25
0.37

0.3
0.4

14
15

34
33

0.31
0.34

0.32
0.35

29
27

28
26

0.29
0.27

0.35
0.29

0
0

26
24

26
24

0.29
0.25

0.3
0.24

4.8
4.8

240.6
151.2

27
30

27
30

0.25
0.28

0.25
0.29

22
23

6.4
12.9

1025
83

35
30

33
29

0.29
0.39

0.25
0.4

24
25

6.4
1.6

37.8
12.4

27
27

26
26

0.3
0.3

0.29
0.29

26

26

26

0.21

0.27

27

26

25

0.25

0.26

28

25

24

0.26

0.27

29
30

0
1.6

14.1
21.9

25
25

25
26

0.31
0.3

0.31
0.27

31
32

102

36

26

0.3

0.27

4.8

250

30

28

0.33

0.36

33
34

3.2
1.6

170.1
16

29
27

29
26

0.27
0.25

0.29
0.26

35
36

0
1.6

0
0

26
26

26
25

0.23
0.22

0.27
0.29

37
38

0
0

0
60.2

24
27

23
26

0.22
0.38

0.3
0.31

39
40

1.6
0

341
1092

36
30

29
35

0.3
0.37

0.38
0.4

41
42

4.8
3.2

639
422.5

31
32

36
32

0.43
0.36

0.46
0.36

43

1.6

79.2

29

30

0.33

0.35

Table 8 Regression summary of significance of wind speed to Ozone uplifting

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.612107
R Square
0.374675
Adjusted R
Square
0.3434087
Standard Error
0.0819884
Observations
43
ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

df
2
40
42

SS
0.161106757
0.268883941
0.429990698

Intercept
WS
PGL

Coefficients
0.1371951
0.0034904
0.5203211

Standard
Error
0.032979952
0.003124896
0.106927182

MS
0.080553
0.006722

F
11.98337

Significance
F
8.36E-05

t Stat
4.159956
1.11697
4.866126

P-value
0.000164
0.270672
1.81E-05

Lower 95%
0.07054
-0.00283
0.304213

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Upper
95%
0.20385
0.009806
0.736429

Lower
95.0%
0.07054
-0.00283
0.304213

Upper
95.0%
0.20385
0.009806
0.736429

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Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

Table 9 Regression summary of significance of solar radiation to Ozone uplifting
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.6017704

R Square
Adjusted R
Square

0.3621276

Standard Error

0.0828069

Observations

43

0.3302339

ANOVA
df

SS

MS

Significance F

Regression

0.155711484

0.077855742

11.35423

0.000124359

Residual

40

0.274279214

0.00685698

Total

42

0.429990698

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper
95%

Lower
95.0%

Upper
95.0%

Intercept

0.1487193

0.030675323

4.848173089

1.92E-05

0.086722135

0.210716

0.086722

0.210716

SR

2.441E-05

3.6961E-05

0.660493418

0.512723

-5.02885E-05

9.91E-05

-5E-05

9.91E-05

PGL

0.5059721

0.107212431

4.719341636

2.88E-05

0.289287684

0.722656

0.289288

0.722656

Table 10 Regression summary of significance of wind speed to Ozone uplifting

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.615835

R Square

0.379252

Adjusted R Square

0.348215

Standard Error

0.081688

Observations

43

ANOVA
df

SS

MS

Significance
F

Regression

0.163075

0.081538

12.21922

7.22E-05

Residual

40

0.266916

0.006673

Total

42

0.429991

Coefficients

Standard
Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper
95%

Lower
95.0%

Upper
95.0%

Intercept

0.032137

0.102542

0.313402

0.755604

-0.17511

0.239381

-0.17511

0.239381

TEMP @ GL

0.004215

0.003384

1.245708

0.220119

-0.00262

0.011054

-0.00262

0.011054

PGL

0.506045

0.105763

4.784682

2.35E-05

0.292289

0.719801

0.292289

0.719801

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

Table 11 Regression summary of significance of temperature at four metre height to Ozone
uplifting
8
Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.613032

R Square

0.375808

Adjusted R Square

0.344598

Standard Error

0.081914

Observations

43

ANOVA
df

SS

MS

Significance F

Regression

0.161594

0.080797

12.04142

8.06E-05

Residual

40

0.268397

0.00671

Total

42

0.429991

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper
95%

Lower
95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

0.030771

0.111589

0.275749

0.784161

-0.19476

0.2563

-0.19476

0.2563

TEMP @ 4m

0.004393

0.00382

1.149997

0.256974

-0.00333

0.012113

-0.00333

0.012113

PGL

0.500585

0.10616

4.715383

2.92E-05

0.286028

0.715142

0.286028

0.715142

2.8. Modified Equation and Verification

Equation (15) is rewritten by removing the solar radiation parameter (See Equation
17). Table 12 shows new values of observed and predicted ozone values and these are
used to estimate correlation coefficient by plotting observed against predicted ozone
concentrations.
Equation (17)

Table 12 Observed and predicted Ozone concentrations

POINTS

OBSERVED

PREDICTED

DIFF IN ERROR

0.28

0.262292523

0.000313555

PERCENTAGE ERROR
(%)
0.111983929

0.02

0.010711075

8.63E-05

0.4314205

0.28

0.269104971

0.000118702

0.042393571

0.3

0.252267773

0.002278366

0.759455333

0.4

0.391925614

6.52E-05

0.016298925

0.32

0.325594238

3.13E-05

0.009779844

0.35

0.344685261

2.82E-05

0.008070429

0.35

0.303987423

0.002117157

0.604902

0.25

0.25881985

7.78E-05

0.03111592

10

0.29

0.289667698

1.10E-07

3.80776E-05

11

0.25

0.305061216

0.003031738

1.2126952

12

0.4

0.400168211

2.83E-08

7.0737E-06

13

0.29

0.31298273

0.000528206

0.18214

14

0.29

0.321439907

0.000988468

0.340851034

15

0.27

0.31214063

0.001775833

0.657715926

16

0.36

0.350128921

9.74E-05

0.027066167

17

0.29

0.281574824

7.10E-05

0.024477103

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predicted

Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

POINTS

OBSERVED

PREDICTED

DIFF IN ERROR

18

0.26

0.268179872

6.69E-05

PERCENTAGE ERROR
(%)
0.025734731

19

0.38

0.344086428

0.001289785

0.339417105

20

0.46

0.419029294

0.001678599

0.364912826

21

0.36

0.374741314

0.000217306

0.060362778

22

0.35

0.343841902

3.79E-05

0.010834914

0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

y = 0.9436x + 0.025
R = 0.9059

Linear (PREDICTED)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

observed

Figure 4 Plot of observed against predicted Ozone concentration

3. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
The development of a model to predict ozone concentration in obstruction prone areas
is presented as Equation (15). The model developed is obtained via dimensional
analysis and the multiple linear regression was employed to calibrate it. This model
achieves a correlation coefficient of 0.996 and shows a very high significance in the
x1 term made of wind speed, ground level ozone concentration and solar radiation.
Verification of the model shows a correlation coefficient of 0.905 and MSE of 0.0007
when the observed concentrations were plotted against the predicted.
The maximum ozone gas measured from the Choba study area was 0.45mg/m and
this lies within the range for urban areas (0.3mg/m 3 0.8mg/m3) as stated by the
World Bank group in 1998.
Detailed sensitivity analysis on individual meteorological parameters was carried
out to evaluate the significance of each parameter on the uplifting of ozone. A
summary of the results of significance is presented on Table 13. Because of the
sensitivity in variation of air pollution concentrations 20% level of significance was
selected for critical value of t-statistic. Temperature at ground level is the most
significant meteorological parameter in pollutant uplifting. Though it has been
established that thermal effects result mainly from the variation of solar heating of the
ground (Xie, 2005), surprisingly solar radiation shows no significance in pollutant
uplifting. This is because the process of heating takes time and so the time a high
solar radiation is measured would be different from the time pollutants start showing
significant uplifting (See Figure 5).

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

Table 13 Results of Significance.
Parameter
Wind speed
Solar radiation
Temperature at ground level
Temperature at 4 m height

t-statistic
1.11697
0.66049
1.245708

t-critical (t.80)
0.858
0.858
0.858
0.858

1.149997

comment
Significant
Non-Significant
Significant
Significant

0.45

1400

0.4

1200

0.35

1000

0.3
0.25

800

0.2

600

0.15

400

0.1

SIGNIFICAN
SOLAR RADIATION

OZONE CONCENTRATION

SAMPLE DAY RECORD

GROUND LEVEL OZONE

FOUR METRE OZONE
SOLAR RADIATION

200

0.05
0

0
1

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS

Figure 6 Plot showing solar radiation against ground level and four metre height ozone

With the information obtained from Table 13, Equation (15) is rewritten with
solar radiation removed and the verification of the modified model shows no
reduction in the correlation coefficient which further confirms the irrelevance of solar
radiation in the developed model.
Figures 6 and 7 show a plot of the concentrations of ozone at ground level and
four metre height measured on the field with corresponding wind speed and ground
level temperatures. In agreement with the modeling carried out, peak values of wind
speed and temperatures are associated with ground level uplifting (the case where the
4 metre height ozone concentrations are greater than the ground level concentrations).
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

14
12
10
8
6
4
2

wind speed

ozone conct.

S/N
1
2
3
4

OZONE CONC. GL
OZONE CONC. @ 4M
WIND SPEED

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

sampling number

Figure 6 Field observations of average wind speed, ground and four metre height ozone
concentrations

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0.5

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

ozone conct.

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

ground level temp.

Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

OZONE CONC. GL
OZONE CONC. @ 4M

temp. @ GL

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

sampling number

Figure 7 Field observations of ground level temperature, ground and four metre height Ozone
concentrations

High temperatures and wind speed have been seen to facilitate vertical uplifting of
ozone and this agrees with works of Xie (2015), which considered heating of the
earths surfaces with small velocities of 1 & 2 m/s. In this work higher wind velocities
and temperatures have shown increased pollutant uplifting (See to Figures 6 & 7).
Other measured pollutants also confirmed temperature as the most important
meteorological variable in pollutant uplifting when their significance are considered
in relation to pollutant uplifting (See Table 14).
Table 14 T-statistic for other pollutants on relating the significance of pollutant uplifting
S/N

VARIABLES

Temperature @ ground level

NO
CO
t-statistic values
2.226274
-1.76596

TSP

t-critical (t.80)

0.858
1.41408

Lastly, efforts to calibrate the general model (Equation 11) for other pollutants
like NO2, CO and TSP measured from the study area failed to produce high
correlation coefficients (See Figures 8-10 and Table 15). This may be taken as an
unexplained variation which can be attributed to the fact that ozone is a secondary
pollutant and can be formed hundreds of kilometers from the source of
emission(World Bank group, 1998) and primary pollutants do not have this property.
The other measured pollutants still show trends of pollutant uplifting during periods
of high temperature and wind speed (See Figures 11 -16).

OBSERVED VERSUS PREDICTED TSP

PREDICTEDTSP

800
y = 0.5606x + 98.591
R = 0.2345

600
400
200
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

OBSERVED TSP

Figure 8 Comparison of observed and predicted TSP

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

OBSERVED VERSUS PREDICTED CO

14

PREDICTED CO

12
10

y = -0.2187x + 7.7625
R = 0.036

8
6
4
2
0
0

10

12

14

OBSERVED CO

Figure 9 Comparison of observed and predicted CO

OBSERVED VERSUS PREDICTED NO2

PREDICTED NO2

0.25
0.2
y = 0.6825x + 0.0333
R = 0.3362

0.15
0.1

0.05
0
0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

OBSERVED NO2

40

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

TEMP/CONCT

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

CONCT.

Figure 10 Comparison of observed and predicted NO2

GL TEMP
4 M CO POLLUTANT
GL CO POLLUTANT

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

SAMPLE NUMBER

Figure 11 Field observations of ground level temperature, ground and four metre height CO
concentrations

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20

100

18

90

16

80

14

70

12

60

10

50

40

30

20

10

CO CONCT.

CO CONCT/ WS

Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

WS
4 M CO CONCT
GL CO CONCT

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

SAMPLE NUMBER

Figure 12 Field observations of average wind speed, ground and four metre height CO
concentrations
14

2.5

12

1.5

NO2 CONCT.

WS

10
WS
GL NO2
CONCT.
4 M NO2
CONCT.

4
0.5

2
0

0
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

SAMPLE NUMBER

Figure 13 Field observations of average wind speed, ground and four metre height NO2
concentrations
40

2.5

35

TEMP

25

1.5

20
1

15
10

0.5

NO2 CONCT.

30

GL TEMP.

GL NO2 CONCT
4 M NO2 CONCT.

5
0

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

SAMPLE NUMBER

Figure 14 Field observations of ground level temperature, ground and four metre height NO2
concentrations

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A Predictive Model For Ozone Uplifting In Obstruction Prone Environment

1600

14

1400

12
10

1000

800
6

600

WS

TSP CONCT.

1200

GL TSP CONCT.
4 M TSP CONCT.

400

WS

200
0

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

SAMPLE NUMBER

1600

40

1400

35

1200

30

1000

25

800

20

600

15

400

10

200

GL TEMP.

TSP CONCT.

Figure 15 Field observations of average wind speed, ground and four meter height TSP
concentrations

GL TSP
4 M TSP CONCT.
GL TEMP

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

SAMPLE NUMBER

Figure 16 Field observations of ground level temperature, ground and four metre height TSP
concentrations

4. CONCLUSION
From the research carried out, the following conclusions can be drawn;
1. A model has been developed and calibrated for predicting ozone uplifting from
ground level to a maximum of four metre height. The model yielded a correlation
coefficient of 0.996.
2. The process of pollutant uplifting is generally facilitated by ground level temperature
and wind speed velocity.
3. The most important meteorological parameter during ozone uplifting has been
established statistically through test of significance to be ground level Temperature

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Terry Henshaw, Ify L. Nwaogazie and Vincent Weli

4. NO2, CO and TSP also show similar trend in uplifting as temperature remains the
most important variable.
5. Solar radiation though responsible for heating the earths surface is found to have a
negligible effect in the developed model.
6. The maximum amount of ozone measured from the study area (0.45 mg/m3) lies
within the WHO range for urban ozone which is 0.30.8 mg/m3.
7. The property of ozone that makes it form hundreds of kilometers away from any
source is suspected to be the reason why it is the most responsive pollutant in
calibrating the uplifting model.

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