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Volatility Handbook
An Explanation of Basic Concepts, Strategies for Hedging and
Enhancing Portfolio Return, and Compilation of Selected Prior
Volatility Research
James J. Hosker
1.212.526.7460
jjhosker@lehman.com
Amit Dholakia
1.212.526.0885
amit.dholokia@lehman.com
February 2002
http://www.lehman.com
I. Introduction to Volatility
II. Volatility Concepts and Terminology
III. Trading Volatility
IV. Derivatives Trading Regulation and Market Structure
Volatility Handbook
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
Table of Contents
Derivatives: The Key to Risk Management ......................................................
................................ ...................... 2
Definitions
Defi nitions of Volatility ................................................................
................................ ...............................................
................................ ............... 6
Historical Volatility ........................................................................................... 6
Implied Volatility .............................................................................................. 6
Option Premiums: Paying for Potential ................................................................. 7
Single Stock and Equity Index Derivatives:
Derivatives: Futures and Options ........................... 8
Description of Equity Index Futures...................................................................... 8
Description of Equity Options ............................................................................ 9
Factors Affecting Option Pricing ....................................................................... 10
Comparison of Futures and Options ................................................................. 11
Interpreting Implied Volatility ................................................................
................................ .....................................
................................ ..... 14
Term Structure of Implied Volatility .................................................................... 14
Strike Structure (or Skew) of Implied Volatility...................................................... 15
Real-Time Implied Volatility Market Indicators...................................................... 19
Volatility Cones ............................................................................................. 21
Option Strategies to Trade Volatility ............................................................
................................ ............................ 24
New Developments in Equity Derivatives: The Excha
Exchange
nge Traded Fund (ETF) .......... 28
Investment Strategies Using Exchange-Traded Funds ............................................ 28
Conclusion ................................................................................................... 35
List of Available ETFs on Selected Indices.......................................................... 36
CostCost -Effective Trading: A Look at NasdaqNasdaq-100 Derivative Products ..................... 39
Market and Exchange Details ................................................................
................................ ....................................
................................ .... 44
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Definitions of Volatility
Historical Volatility
In statistical terms, volatility is defined as the standard deviation of expected returns. It
reflects the degree to which an assets value changes relative to its mean over a given
number of observations.
attempts to quantify an assets price fluctuation over a given time frame in the past.
Realized volatility is calculated according to the following formula:
n
Realized Volatility =
(X
- M )2
i =1
n -1
where: Xi = observation
M = sample mean
n = number of observations
Realized volatility aims to analyze historical price fluctuation to anticipate future
performance.
Implied Volatility
Implied volatility is a forward-looking measure of the expected volatility level that is
implicit in option prices. An option-pricing model, such as the Black-Scholes model, can
determine a theoretical price for an option using other parameters to characterize the
underlying asset. The calculated price can be used to determine a theoretical level of
option implied volatility.
Volatility has value. An option on a highly volatile underlying security will tend to have a
high implied volatility as well. High volatility in the underlying asset is desirable to an
option buyer, because the option has a greater likelihood of expiring in-the-money, but
the buyer will have to pay for this volatility in the form of a higher premium. Conversely,
the rich premium associated with options on a volatile asset may be desirable to an
option seller who looks to absorb the premium by selling the option, thereby trading on a
view that volatility will eventually decrease.
While historical volatility is calculated based on an assets prior price fluctuations,
implied volatility, which gauges the markets perception of a contracts volatility, attempts
to quantify a range for an assets future volatility. Examining the sensitivity of implied
volatility to changes in option expiration and strike price provide valuable insights for
structuring an option strategy. Term structure, or implied volatility examined over short- to
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
long-term expirations, reveals the option markets expectations for volatility going
forward. As mentioned above, a highly volatile underlying asset has a greater
Term and Strike Structure of
Implied Volatility
premium will be higher than it would have been if the underlying stock were less volatile.
We use the following conventions to refer to option strike prices throughout this document: ATM = at-themoney, ITM = in-the-money, OTM = out-of-the-money
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
some exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but are not commonly offered for individual
Futures Roll or Calendar Spread
(r q) * T
F0 = S0 * e(r q) * T
where
Equity index futures are particularly effective tools to hedge risk in diversified portfolios.
Assuming that the maturity of the futures contract is the same as the duration of the
required hedge, the optimal amount of futures contracts needed to hedge depends on
three criteria: the dollar amount of the portfolio, the portfolio beta relative to the market
and the dollar amount of assets that underlies each futures contract. Generally, a portfolio
with a higher beta will require more futures contracts to hedge.
2
3
As defined in: Hull, John C., Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, 4th Edition, 2000. Prentice-Hall
Inc.
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Volatility Handbook
4
As defined in: Hull, John C., Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, 4th Edition, 2000. Prentice-Hall
Inc.
5
IBID
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Volatility Handbook
Change in option price resulting from an incremental change in the price of the
underlying asset. An options delta is a function of the underlying asset price and the
option strike price
price. Delta is positive for long call options and negative for long put
options.
Gamma (G
(G)
Change in option price resulting from an incremental change in Delta. Measures the
sensitivity (or convexity) of delta relative to the change in the underlying asset
price. The value of Gamma is higher for at-the-money, short-dated options.
Theta (Q
(Q)
Vega (V)
Change in option price with respect to volatility of the underlying asset value.
Vega increases as time to expiration increases and is higher for at-the-money strikes.
Rho (R
( R)
Change in option price resulting from an incremental change in the riskrisk- free
financing rate. Rho is positive for long call options and negative for long put options.
Source: Options, Futures and Other Derivatives 4th Edition by John C. Hull
Within the equity universe, dividends paid out by an underlying stock or index, which
lower the asset price on the ex-dividend date, have a negative effect on the value of call
options and a positive effect on the value of put options. The following table summarizes
the effects of each parameter on the option price (or option premium).
European Call
European Put
American Call
American Put
Strike Price
Time to Expiration
Underlying Asset
Volatility
+
+
+
+
+
Risk-free Financing
Rate
Underlying Asset
Price
Dividends
th
In most cases, increasing the time to expiration will increase the premium of European
calls and puts, due to higher time value, but the dividend payment, which can lower the
stock price, makes the overall effect ambiguous. The early exercise feature of American
options makes the possibility of dividend payment immaterial, as the holder would simply
exercise prior to the scheduled payment date.
10
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Volatility Handbook
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Volatility Handbook
A ssetP rice at
M aturity
A ssetP rice at
M aturity
D eliveryP rice
D elivery P rice
O ption
P rem ium P aid
Strike P rice
P lus P rem ium
Strike P rice
P lus P rem ium
O ption
P rem ium P aid
Strike P rice
M inus P rem ium
Strike P rice
M inus P rem ium
It is evident that options offer investors more flexible ways to limit downside risk while
maintaining upside profit potential. In Section 3, we discuss the benefits of options
strategies that use combinations of calls and puts to translate market and volatility views
into trading positions.
12
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Volatility Handbook
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Volatility Handbook
indication of the markets volatility expectations. Figure 4 shows the daily implied
volatility of 3-month, 6-month and 1-year option contracts on the S&P 500 in 2001. The
3-month contract in Figure 4 shows the greatest variability, while the 1-year contract is
the least variable, suggesting the tendency of implied volatility to revert to its mean value
over the long term. Intuitively, long-term mean reversion is an appropriate characteristic of
implied volatility. Implied volatility forecasts become less accurate as the time frame for
the forecast increases. While even short-term volatility forecasts cannot account for all
possible driving factors, uncertainty is large enough to eliminate any forecasting
accuracy for longer-term implied volatility. Conventionally, the best possible estimate for
longer-term implied volatility is its average value over time.
3-mth
6-mth
1-yr
30.0%
27.5%
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
14
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9/
2/
01
10
/2
/0
1
11
/2
/0
1
12
/2
/0
1
8/
2/
01
7/
2/
01
6/
2/
01
5/
2/
01
4/
2/
01
3/
2/
01
2/
2/
01
1/
2/
01
15.0%
Volatility Handbook
The following graph shows the term structure of S&P 500 implied volatility over the short
and long terms. We examine only atat -thethe- money (ATM) strikes, keeping the option
delta at each strike level constant to isolate the effects of term structure.
Mathematically, term structure differentials measure the slope at any point along the term
Term structure differentials
measure the slope at any
point along the curve.
structure curve, and can indicate changes in the option markets expectations for volatility
over the long and short term. For example, if the market begins to expect increased
volatility in the S&P 500 in the near term, the implied volatility of 1-month and 3-month
contracts will rise relative to longer-term contracts. If expectations are that volatility will not
rise beyond a few months, the term structure might be flatter for longer-dated contracts.
Expectations of higher near-term implied volatility will cause the term structure differential
between 1-year and 3-month implied volatility (shown in the lower table in Figure 5) to
decrease.
35%
30%
Current
Avg
SD
SD Units
Postive/Negative Slope
25%
0.7%
1.1%
2.0%
-0.18
Normal
Current
Avg
SD
SD Units
Postive/Negative Slope
-0.2%
1.4%
1.7%
-0.97
Fairly Negative
20%
15%
10%
1-Yr
2-Yr
3-Yr
Current
One Month Ago 16.4% 20.2% 20.4% 20.6% 21.0% 20.9% 21.1% 21.5% 22.2%
3-Yr Avg +2 SD 27.6% 26.9% 26.9% 27.1% 27.3% 27.9% 28.5% 29.5% 30.1%
3-Yr Avg -2 SD
which results in various levels of implied volatility that is observable in the market for any
given option contract. The divergence in implied volatility levels allows us to reasonably
Graph shows a snapshot of term structure as of Feb 5, 2002. For a daily update of global index term
structure, contact your Lehman Brothers sales representative.
February 2002
15
Volatility Handbook
infer that the options market, while relying on some theoretical pricing model as a starting
point, does not consider that model to be completely efficient.
Strike structure of single stock
options.
The general shape of implied volatility skew, often called a volatility smile, indicates the
markets belief that large movements in stock price occur with more regularity than a
theoretical pricing model would predict, making OTM options more valuable.
Consequently, implied volatility of some single stock options that follow this pattern is
lowest for the ATM strikes, and increases as strikes are set further out-of-the-money on
both the call and put side, since large price movements are also almost equally likely in
8
either direction. Figure 6 shows the generic strike structure of implied volatility, which
has an equal likelihood of large price movements in either direction.
For single stocks, implied
volatility increases for further
OTM strike prices. The
volatility smile shape shows
that option markets believe
large stock movements are
likely events, which makes
OTM options valuable, and
that price movements are
almost equally likely to occur
in either direction (strike
structure is similar for single
stock call and put options).
Figure 6: Strike Structure of Implied Volatility for Single Stocks (Volatility Smile)
ATM Strike
Implied Volatility
7
8
Natenberg, Sheldon, Option Volatility and Pricing, 1994. McGraw-Hill & Co.
The volatility smile effect is observed only for some single stocks and is not a feature of index options,
which exhibit negative skew. We compare and contrast index option skew patterns with the smile
pattern in the following pages.
16
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Volatility Handbook
Implied volatility strike structure for equity index options usually does not follow the same
pattern as described above for some individual stock options, due to subtle differences in
the way the market views the likelihood of large price swings occurring for stocks versus
indices. As Figure 7 illustrates, equity index options exhibit a downward sloping strike
Strike structure of equity index
options
structure that is highest for the OTM strikes and decreases as the strike prices move
inin-thethe-money. This strike structure pattern is known as negative skew, which shows an
underlying market belief that a price swing to the downside is much more likely than to
the upside. We define strike prices as a percentage of the underlying asset value
(thereby making the 100% strike equivalent to the ATM strike).
35%
30%
25%
Current
Avg
SD
SD Units
Steep/Flat Indicator
5.7%
5.1%
1.1%
0.54
Fairly Steep
20%
15%
10%
80% Strike
90% Strike
100% Strike
110% Strike
120% Strike
Current
31.6%
25.9%
20.2%
16.9%
14.2%
29.6%
24.2%
19.1%
15.9%
13.2%
30.8%
25.2%
20.4%
17.3%
16.2%
3-Yr Avg +2 SD
38.6%
32.6%
26.9%
22.6%
21.2%
3-Yr Avg -2 SD
26.1%
21.6%
17.6%
14.8%
13.2%
Avg
SD
SD Units
Steep/Flat Indicator
6.6%
8.1%
2.7%
-0.56
Fairly Flat
likely to swing down than up., but why? Two reasons have been offered :
n Stock markets and sectors have a larger downside correlation than upside
correlation (i.e., stocks tend to drop together in falling markets more often than
they increase together in rising markets)
Graph shows a snapshot of 3-month strike structure as of Feb 5, 2002. For a daily update of global
index strike structure, contact your Lehman Brothers sales representative.
10
Natenberg, Sheldon, Option Volatility and Pricing, 1994. McGraw-Hill & Co.
February 2002
17
Volatility Handbook
n Stock index options are very commonly used to hedge long equity portfolios,
making demand for put options much higher than call demand, and consequently
raising index put premiums relative to call premiums. Asymmetrically high put
demand and put premiums will skew put implied volatility to the downside for
index options.
We explore the arguments for greater index downside skew:
Extensive prior research has suggested an asymmetric correlation in equity sector returns
11
during bull and bear markets. Specifically, sector correlation is higher during periods of
12
negative return , which leads to different volatility implications for single stocks and
indices. Figure 8 plots the average downside and upside inter-sector correlation for nine
13
market sectors
and the S&P 500 index option implied volatility from October 1995 to
October 2001.
Figure 8: Average Sector Index Downside and Upside Correlations from October
1995 to October 2001
Market
Downside
Ups ide
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
7/27/01
10/27/01
4/27/01
1/27/01
7/27/00
10/27/00
4/27/00
1/27/00
10/27/99
7/27/99
4/27/99
1/27/99
7/27/98
10/27/98
4/27/98
1/27/98
7/27/97
10/27/97
4/27/97
1/27/97
7/27/96
10/27/96
4/27/96
1/27/96
10/27/95
0.2
As we stated in our earlier analysis, the graph in Figure 8 suggests that average upside
and downside sector correlation move together except in periods of low or high option
implied volatility, such as October 1997 and August 1998 (Southeast Asian Crisis and
Russian debt crisis respectively), when downside correlation spikes.
11
See Longin F. and B. Solnik, 2001, Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets, Journal of
Finance, 56, 649-676.
12
13
See Not All Momentum Sectors are Created Equal, in November 12, 2001, issue of The Outlook.
From a prior analysis conducted on November 12, 2001. The nine sector indices are Banks (BKX),
Biotechnology (BTK), Consumer Staples (CMR), Cyclicals (CYC), Pharmaceuticals (DRG), High
Technology (MSH), Semiconductor (SOX), Broker/Dealer (XBD) and Utilities (UTY). Our analysis used a
22-day period (calendar month) to calculate inter-sector correlation. The average inter-sector correlation is
a 22-day moving average of the 36 pair-wise inter-sector correlations.
18
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Volatility Handbook
Indices exhibit asymmetric return distributions that are historically skewed to the negative
tail. Furthermore, these distributions also have a higher level of kurtosis than exhibited by
a normal distribution.
14
kurtosis imply that indices, as empirical research would suggest, have more downside
risk than a single stock. The discrepancy between index and single stock option strike
structure volatility occurs on the put side, precisely because of the greater index tendency
for downside moves. This perceived asymmetric downside index tendency raises the
value of OTM index puts and lowers the value of ITM puts. Single stock ITM puts have
similar premiums to OTM puts, because markets perceive single stocks to have a
relatively equal chance of moving significantly up or down.
While term structure is useful in identifying the ideal time horizon to execute a strategy,
skew can help identify the appropriate strike prices based on market expectation of
relative volatility. For example, the strike structure in Figure 7 drops more steeply from the
OTM strikes leading up to the ATM strike than it does after, which indicates that the
market expects higher volatility (and higher premiums) on that portion of the skew curve.
Real-Time Implied Volatility Market Indicators
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) offers real-time indices that track shortterm index implied volatility on the S&P 100 (OEX) and the Nasdaq-100 (NDX).
VIX Index (shows implied volatility of S&P 100)
15
The VIX was developed in 1993 as an indicator of market implied volatility, and is often
regarded by technical analysts as a contrary market indicator, meaning it moves
inversely with the market. Since it measures implied volatility, VIX increases as the market
declines (showing higher implied volatility) and vice versa. Low VIX levels signify low
implied volatility and relatively complacent markets. Extremely high VIX levels indicate
high anxiety, risk and uncertainty in the options market and generally coincide with a
continued decline in stock prices.
16
Similar to the VIX, the VXN Index gauges implied volatility on the Nasdaq-100,
providing investors with a real-time volatility barometer for the technology universe.
Compared to the VIX, which tracks the relatively more stable S&P 100 index, the VXN
shows the higher implied volatility inherent in technology stocks.
14
Kurtosis measures how much of a distributions variability lies at the extremes (i.e., the thickness of the
tails).
15
The VIX index replicates the payoff of a hypothetical ATM option expiring in 30 days. The option is
composed of eight puts and calls on the underlying OEX weighted by time to expiration and the ATM
strike price.
16
Uses NDX options and the same construction methodology as the VIX.
February 2002
19
Volatility Handbook
swings, but of the implied risk associated with the stock market.
As mentioned before,
sector risk (and hence market risk) has an asymmetric negative bias, which means that
market declines are associated with higher overall levels of risk and higher implied
volatilities. For evidence of rising implied volatility in risky markets, we can look no further
than the VIX and VXN spike in Figure 9 caused by the additional risk that the events of
September 11 injected into the markets. Put option implied volatility is the most likely to
rise in a falling market as investors seek protection; the spike in put activity also causes
premiums to rise.
90.0
80.0
70.0
Volatility (%)
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
1
9/
2/
01
10
/2
/0
1
11
/2
/0
1
12
/2
/0
1
1/
2/
02
2/
2/
02
VIX Level
8/
2/
0
7/
2/
0
6/
2/
0
5/
2/
0
4/
2/
0
1/
2/
0
1
2/
2/
01
3/
2/
01
0.0
VXN Level
(ETF).
The QQV Index (quoted on the American Stock Exchange) was developed in
September 2000 to track the implied volatility of options on the QQQ. The methodology
is similar to that used by the CBOE in calculating the VIX and VXN.
20
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17
18
Volatility Handbook
Volatility Cones
Just as term and strike structure display market perceptions of implied volatility, volatility
cones show technical and momentum trends in historical volatility over time. The volatility
cone in Figure 10 condenses implied and realized index volatility data, and shows nearterm volatility spread trends to make an effective trading tool.
Figure 10: S&P 500 Implied and Realized Volatility Cone and Near-term Volatility
19
Spreads
A volatility cone is useful in
identifying trading
opportunities caused by
discrepancies in realized and
implied volatility levels.
45%
40%
35%
30%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
20%
10%
Vol Sprd
3-Yr Avg Vol Sprd -2 SD
Near-ATM Impl Vol
20%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
15%
0%
10%
1-Yr
2-Yr
3-Yr
Min Realized
Max Realized
Avg Realized
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Current Realized 17.6% 16.4% 15.8% 17.0% 19.6% 18.7% 20.8% 21.4% 20.5%
Current Implied
19
Graph provides a snapshot of S&P 500 historical and implied volatility as of February 6, 2002.
Contact your Lehman Brothers Sales Representative for current levels.
February 2002
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Volatility Handbook
22
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Volatility Handbook
the value of a stock or index over a given time period in the future? These could
be fundamental factors or technical/momentum driven factors.
n Current and Future Volatility Levels: How high or low are current implied and
realized volatility levels relative to each other? How high is current realized
volatility relative to past levels of realized volatility?
In Figure 11 below, we show appropriate option strategies to implement various views
on underlying asset price movement and volatility levels.
Buy Calls
Buy Straddles or
Strangles
Buy Puts
Long-Short Strategies
Sell Puts
Sell Straddles or
Strangles
Sell Calls
Expect
Decreased
Volatility
Source: Lehman Brothers
The basic strategies outlined above can be combined to capitalize on current market
conditions. We outline the mechanics of the basic strategies and possible combinations
to profit from expected market and volatility movements in Figure 12.
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Volatility Handbook
Strategy Components
Possible Uses
Buy Calls
Buying Calls
Sell Calls
Call
Overwriting
Buy Puts
Buying Puts
Sell Puts
Selling Puts
Call Debit
Spreads
Call Credit
Spread
Put Debit
Spreads
Put Credit
Spread
Long Straddle
Short Straddle
Long Strangle
Short Strangle
Collar
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Volatility Handbook
Buying OTM Options: Strike price should be set at a level where the investor believes
the premium paid is worth the potential upside and the probability that it will be reached.
Sell OTM Options: Strike price should be set at the investors optimal trade-off between
current income and protection. Defensive-minded investors will likely opt to collect a
lower premium by selling a further OTM option in return for the added protection
provided by the higher strike.
We provide graphical illustrations of the payoffs of the basic options strategies described
above in Figure 13.
26
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Volatility Handbook
Long Straddle
Short Straddle
Long Strangle
Short Strangle
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Volatility Handbook
20
An ETF is a hybrid security that is traded on an exchange, like a single stock, but
provides the returns from owning a portfolio of stocks.
either an entire market (such as the S&P 500, or the Nasdaq-100, Russell 3000, the
FTSE 100 etc.), a sector or industry of the market (Internet, Telecommunication, Financial
services, Energy, Technology, Real Estate, etc.) or even a selected basket of stocks.
Although the current ETFs track or replicate well-known market indices, plans are under
way to introduce ETFs that represent any actively traded portfolio of stocks.
Brief History of ETFs
ETFs have grown in popularity since their origin in 1993. The first ETF, called Standard
and Poors Depository Receipts (SPDRs, known
21
the S&P 500 index much like a mutual fund. With a current estimated asset base of
about $20 billion, it has more than 100 million shares outstanding. By far the dominant
ETF on the market today, SPDRs have more than 40% of the market share of all ETF
assets, and institutions own nearly 40% of SPDR shares.
Another widely popular ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 index and trades under the ticker
22
Currently, the
QQQs have two-thirds the assets of SPDRs (approximately $11 billion) but trade nearly
twice the average daily dollar volume of the latter. On average, QQQs traded slightly
over 70 million shares a day in 2001, making them one of the most liquid securities
traded on any exchange.
Investment Strategies Using Exchange-Traded Funds
ETF enabled investment
strategy
Part of the excitement surrounding the introduction of ETFs is due to the facilitation of new
investment strategies they make possible. It is a well known fact that asset allocation
decisions are significant determinants of superior investment performance.
ETFs that
represent aggregated units of the market (sectors, styles, sizes, etc.) are ideally suited to
implement asset allocation decisions. In what follows, we establish the need for asset
allocation strategies to achieve superior returns and to forecast asset returns In addition
to asset allocation, we list potential investment strategies executed efficiently with ETFs.
ETFs and Futures Contracts
Equity asset managers that are benchmarked to a major index have alternative methods
of investment to achieve the performance of their benchmark. The obvious approach is
to own the stocks in the benchmark index in a portfolio that is weighted according to the
benchmark's weighting methodology.
20
See Exchange-Traded Funds: Where the Market is a Stock, September 15, 2000 publication by
Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives & Quantitative Research.
21
22
28
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Volatility Handbook
Couple the cash management issues with changes in the benchmark from
reconstitutions and M&A activity and things can get pretty complicated. Fortunately, for
some index managers, they have the ability to use other methods to obtain performance
exposure to his or her benchmark. Namely, the fund manager can use futures contracts,
exchange traded funds and options to make his job more efficient. However, many
index managers are prohibited by the fund's bylaws from trading in derivative products.
For these managers, ETFs are a non-derivative solution.
Because of their lower transaction costs and minimal margin requirements, equity index
futures can play an important role for the index manager.
requires exposure to a benchmark index can make the appropriate investment in the
futures contract. Then the asset manager can either roll into the next futures contract as
time passes or let the position expire and invest in the actual stocks. Historically, the
futures contract was ideal for obtaining index exposure for extended periods of time,
however more recent times have seen the cost of holding a futures position for an
extended period of time become more costly.
This cost is called the calendar spread and is measured as the annualized spread of the
roll cost of closing the near futures contract and opening a position in the next futures
contract versus the current risk free rate. If the calendar spread trades at fair value the
roll cost is zero. If the calendar spread is trading over the fair value the investor incurs
roll cost, however, the calendar spread can trade cheap which is a benefit. Figure 14
illustrates that the calendar spread trade has generally traded rich since 1995.
Aug-99
Aug-98
Aug-97
Aug-96
Aug-95
Aug-94
Aug-93
Aug-92
Aug-91
Aug-90
Aug-89
Aug-88
Aug-87
- 3 .5
February 2002
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Volatility Handbook
Our analysis looks at the costs that an investor would incur for both products if the
investor were to hold the investment for one year. The breakdown of the costs is as
follows:
ETFc = C + B/As + AF
Fut c = C + B/As + R r
Where:
C = Commission cost (round trip or buy + sell)
B/As = Impact cost reflected as the bid/ask spread
AF = Advisor fee for the ETF
Rr = Roll cost
The costs that are common to both the ETF and the futures contract are commissions and
the bid/ask spread. However, these costs are very different for each product. It is well
known that the commission cost associated with futures contracts are very low when
compared to the notional size of a transaction. We use an estimate of $15 a contract,
which currently amounts to 0.4 basis points. Commissions for the ETF are higher, we
assume a rate of 6 cents per share, or currently 4 basis points. The bid/ask spread also
favors the futures contract. For our analysis we use a bid/ask spread of 0.5 index
points, or in terms of dollars, 0.5 multiplied by $250 (or $125 per contract or 4 basis
points). The bid/ask spread for the ETF is 10 cents, or 8 basis points. The figures used
for both commissions and the bid/ask spreads are provided by Lehman Brothers trading
desk.
The unique cost to each product is where the separation occurs. The unique cost of the
ETF is the advisor fee and the unique cost of the future is the roll cost.
The ETF is a managed trust for which the investment advisor of the trust charges a fee.
This fee is typically comprised of management fees, distribution fees and other fees. The
S&P 500 exchange traded funds have the lowest fees of all existing ETFs. The advisor
fee charged by the iShares S&P 500 index fund is 9 basis points, and the S&P 500
SPDR carries a fee of 12 basis points. We use the lower of the two fees for our cost
analysis.
The cost of holding a future for any length of time that requires the contract holder to
enter into a calendar spread trade. The roll cost is the premium an investor pays for
selling the futures contract that is closest to maturity while simultaneously buying the futures
contract with the next-closest maturity. Investors that were long June 2001 S&P 500
futures contracts and wanted to continue holding a long position in S&P 500 futures
contracts had to roll into the September 2001 contracts by executing a calendar spread
trade prior to the expiration of the June 2001 contract.
30
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
Figure 15 shows the scenario of an investor with a one-year holding period. We use
100 futures contracts to establish the notional amount of this trade to be roughly $30
million. The comparison shows a dramatic difference in cost for a buy and hold investor.
The roll cost of the future dominates the analysis, and tilts the scales in favor of the ETF.
However, the roll cost is not a certain cost. The roll cost of 25 basis points used in this
analysis is the average daily roll cost in the four weeks leading up to contract expiration
as measured in the last four quarters. The roll cost is a variable, and could even be
negative under certain market conditions.
250,103
$30,462,545
6 cents a share or $15,006
Bid/Ask Spread
Management Fees
N/A
Roll Cost
Total Cost for One
Year Holding Period
Total Cost/Notional
N/A
67,432
0.31%
0.22%
Position
Notional Amount ($)
Cost Category
Annual Commission
February 2002
31
Volatility Handbook
Symbol
QQQ
66,112
Biotech HOLDRs
BBH
8,243
Semiconductor HOLDRs
SMH
2,809
OIH
1,176
OEF
713
Pharmaceutical HOLDRs
PPH
243
Internet HOLDRs
HHH
238
IAH
96
Telecommunications HOLDRs
TTH
94
IWM
88
VTI
83
IWO
81
Wireless HOLDRs
WMH
55
IIH
42
RKH
27
Utilities HOLDRs
UTH
24
Retail HOLDRs
RTH
24
BHH
24
IWB
20
MKH
18
FEF
10
EKH
IWN
strategy is not the strategy of choice if one is very bullish. It is often a strategy employed
by asset managers who are mandated to invest in a class of stocks that are neutral or
under-performing.
32
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
0%
15
0%
14
13
0%
12
0%
11
0%
10
%
90
%
80
%
70
%
60
%
50
0%
Lon g Q s
Equity P ric e
Source: Lehman Brothers
600%
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
400%
300%
200%
100%
Ju
l-0
1
pr
-0
01
A
nJa
ct
-0
0
l-0
Ju
pr
-0
00
Ja
n-
9
ct
-9
0%
9
l-9
Ju
500%
S hort Interes t
February 2002
33
Volatility Handbook
S ho rt Inte re s t
400%
300%
200%
S h o rt In te re s t R a tio
1
Ju
l- 0
1
pr
-0
01
nJa
-0
ct
O
l- 0
Ju
0
pr
-0
00
n-
Ja
ct
-9
100%
0%
l- 9
Ju
600%
500%
S P Y S h o rt In te re s t
The put overwrite strategy is very similar to the call overwrite strategy, but differs in one
way: the investor is bearish and holds a short position in the ETF (the underlying). The
investor writes put options against the ETF short position and expects to collect the
premium if the ETF price is above the written puts strike price when the option expires.
The only scenario in this strategy that will under-perform the simple short position is when
the ETF price falls below the strike price of the written put option, less the collected
premium. Figure 20 illustrates the profit and loss scenario at expiration. Otherwise, the
put overwrite strategy will outperform a simple short position.
Equity P ric e
Source: Lehman Brothers
34
February 2002
0%
12
0%
11
0%
10
%
90
80
S h ort Q s
Volatility Handbook
Conclusion
Presuming returns can be forecast, ETFs are a cost-efficient way to implement strategies
or views at the sector level. Prior to the creation of ETFs, investment managers had to
trade in portfolios of securities to gain exposure to the relevant size, style or sectors. This
caused higher transaction costboth in trading and management of those portfoliosin
the implementation of active asset allocation strategies. We highlighted the major
benefits of ETFs: lower transaction costs, breadth of asset class coverage, transparency
in pricing and liquidity.
We also presented a list of potential investment strategies for which the ETFs would
prove to be ideal instrument of execution. For these reasons, we believe ETFs are likely
to show increasing acceptance globally in the near future. The impending introduction of
ETFs in the world of actively managed funds (and hedge funds) can only increase their
acceptance and broad appeal as an instrument of asset allocation strategies. Below we
provide lists of index ETFs available by asset class, sector and geographic region.
February 2002
35
Volatility Handbook
Figure 21: List of Currently Available ETFs Related to Style (Growth/Value) Asset Class
Ticker Name
Avg
Outstanding
Assets (m) Bid/Ask
Shares (m)
Spread
Average
Dollar
Volume
Inception
Date
0.95
1,246,375
5/26/00 0.25%
86.30
0.50%
Advisor Fee
IVE
0.70
43.99
0.74%
1,981,290
5/26/00 0.18%
IJK
IJJ
IJT
36.44
0.40%
269,892
7/28/00 0.25%
IJS
0.25
19.32
0.68%
109,023
7/28/00 0.25%
0.20
17.54
0.65%
302,457
7/28/00 0.25%
14.37
0.68%
256,443
7/28/00 0.25%
5/26/00 0.20%
0.50
44.77
0.53%
1,464,657
0.45
25.84
0.83%
1,628,253
5/26/00 0.20%
0.35
29.12
0.81%
3,596,446
7/28/00 0.25%
0.35
37.71
0.59%
588,526
7/28/00 0.25%
0.25
17.72
0.58%
28,616
7/28/00 0.25%
0.25
18.35
0.68%
22,258
8/4/00
0.25%
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Average Bid/Ask Spread and average dollar volume is calculated over the last 30 days. Additionally, outliers are
eliminated from the average calculation. All funds mentioned above are managed by Barclays Global Advisors Ltd.
Figure 22: Currently available ETFs related to size (large/medium/small) asset class
Avg
Outstanding
Assets (m) Bid/Ask
Shares (m)
Spread
Average Dollar
Dollar
Volume
Inception
Date
0.50%
660,989,952
1/29/93
0.12%
0.82%
1,644,067,456 3/10/99
0.18%
55,934,068
5/4/95
0.25%
Ticker
Name
SPY
118.92
17,957
QQQ
MDY
IVV
DIA
IWB
IJH
Nasdaq-100 Shares
128.95
12,677
2,704
0.98%
IWM
IJR
IWV
IYY
Advisor Fee
11.85
1,788
0.30%
37,165,872
5/19/00
0.09%
13.75
1,534
0.18%
75,368,688
1/20/98
0.18%
3.40
274
0.56%
520,743
5/19/00
0.15%
2.30
247
0.45%
7,339,662
5/26/00
0.20%
2.25
238
0.51%
9,733,797
5/26/00
0.20%
0.40
44
0.44%
1,296,404
5/26/00
0.20%
0.40
33
0.58%
762,961
5/26/00
0.20%
0.15
11
0.67%
737,789
6/16/00
0.20%
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Average Bid/Ask Spread and average dollar volume is calculated for the last 30 days. Additionally, outliers are
eliminated from the average calculation. All funds mentioned above are managed by Barclays Global Advisors Ltd.
36
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
Avg
Outstanding
Assets (m) Bid/Ask
Shares (m)
Spread
Average Dollar
Inception Date FUND ADVISOR
Volume
Advisor
Fee
BBH
XLK
HHH
BHH
PPH
BDH
TTH
XLF
IIH
IAH
XLE
XLP
SMH
IYW
XLB
IYF
XLY
XLU
RKH
XLI
XLV
IYV
IYG
UTH
IYZ
IYE
IDU
IYJ
IYH
IYR
IYD
IYC
IYK
IYM
10.38
25.70
7.61
14.77
6.27
6.03
7.83
16.35
7.43
3.30
9.80
10.40
2.14
1.05
5.65
1.35
4.05
3.10
0.84
2.75
2.70
1.05
0.70
0.58
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.45
0.40
0.30
0.45
0.25
0.30
0.25
112,064,984
11,043,542
52,551,772
11,136,547
7,261,594
8,282,052
8,634,823
5,920,272
6,709,044
6,079,403
5,938,700
3,120,345
51,862,336
612,775
1,079,652
991,326
1,836,920
1,302,966
2,223,733
1,183,489
998,868
1,388,982
258,837
1,812,575
211,264
363,807
507,014
85,491
788,298
3,117,377
4,338
8,940
17,833
8,971
*
0.28%
*
*
*
*
*
0.28%
*
*
0.28%
0.28%
*
0.60%
0.28%
0.60%
0.28%
0.28%
*
0.28%
0.28%
0.60%
0.60%
*
0.60%
0.60%
0.60%
0.60%
0.60%
0.60%
0.60%
0.60%
0.60%
0.60%
2,004
1,425
876
735
590
568
514
457
438
343
319
250
206
140
113
111
103
88
87
86
82
81
66
60
37
32
32
29
25
22
17
15
12
9
1.46%
1.40%
1.35%
1.24%
0.54%
0.53%
1.03%
1.80%
1.18%
0.56%
1.62%
1.99%
0.72%
0.48%
2.39%
0.71%
1.79%
1.72%
0.64%
1.60%
1.63%
0.87%
0.62%
0.67%
1.07%
1.19%
0.87%
0.97%
0.91%
0.85%
1.52%
1.01%
1.41%
1.81%
11/23/99
12/31/98
9/23/99
2/24/00
2/1/00
4/6/00
2/1/00
12/22/98
2/25/00
2/25/00
12/22/98
12/22/98
5/5/00
5/19/00
12/22/98
5/31/00
12/22/98
12/22/98
6/23/00
12/22/98
12/22/98
5/19/00
6/21/00
6/23/00
5/26/00
6/16/00
6/20/00
7/14/00
6/16/00
6/19/00
7/28/00
6/28/00
6/16/00
6/20/00
Merrill Lynch
State Street Global Advisors
Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch
State Street Global Advisors
Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch
State Street Global Advisors
State Street Global Advisors
Merrill Lynch
Barclays Global Advisors
State Street Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
State Street Global Advisors
State Street Global Advisors
Merrill Lynch
State Street Global Advisors
State Street Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Merrill Lynch
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Barclays Global Advisors
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Average Bid/Ask Spread and average dollar volume is calculated for the last 30 days. Additionally, outliers are eliminated from the average calculation.
Note: Expenses for HOLDRS: The Bank of New York as trustee and custodian for the HOLDRS may charge a custody fee of $2 per round lot per quarter. With
respect to the aggregate custody fee payable in any calendar year, the trustee will waive that portion of the fee which exceeds the total cash dividends and other
cash distributions received.
February 2002
37
Volatility Handbook
Figure 24: List of Currently Available ETFs Related to Country or Global Region
Ticker
Name
Avg
Average
Outstanding
Assets (m) Bid/Ask Dollar
Shares (m)
Spread Volume
Inception
Date
Fund Advisor
Advisor
Advisor Fee
IEV
0.20
16
0.61%
1,067,087
7/28/00
0.60%
EZU
0.55
42
0.58%
693,432
7/31/00
0.84%
EUN2
7.00
324
0.46%
276,324
4/11/00
Merrill Lynch
0.50%
EUN1
1.10
49
0.48%
108,065
4/11/00
Merrill Lynch
0.50%
EWJ
57.00
787
2.50%
4,302,639
3/18/96
0.84%
0.40%
ISF ln
10.20
158
0.59%
1,512,126
4/28/00
EWG
7.50
154
1.84%
1,372,600
3/18/96
0.84%
EWQ
3.60
96
1.62%
1,099,664
3/18/96
0.84%
EWC
1.10
18
2.11%
873,722
3/18/96
0.84%
EWU
7.80
144
2.42%
711,731
3/18/96
0.84%
EWH
80
3.08%
640,669
3/18/96
0.84%
EWS
11.70
90
4.72%
562,150
3/18/96
0.84%
EWI
2.25
50
1.76%
523,445
3/18/96
0.84%
EWW
2.40
39
2.74%
518,112
3/18/96
0.84%
EWM
16.73
100
5.51%
390,791
3/18/96
0.84%
EWL
2.88
45
2.85%
355,278
3/18/96
0.84%
0.84%
EWD
0.98
23
1.82%
228,864
3/18/96
EWN
1.30
31
2.29%
228,518
3/18/96
0.84%
EWY
0.75
15
1.03%
207,283
5/12/00
0.84%
EWP
1.65
40
1.83%
207,000
3/18/96
0.84%
EWA
6.20
62
4.01%
202,788
3/18/96
0.84%
EWK
1.00
13
3.37%
143,816
3/18/96
0.84%
EWO
1.40
11
5.60%
66,634
3/18/96
0.84%
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Average Bid/Ask Spread and average dollar volume is calculated for the last 30 days. Additionally, outliers are eliminated from the average
calculation
38
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
February 2002
39
Volatility Handbook
on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), which follows slightly different market
hours than the AMEX and other exchanges.
23
MNX Call MNX options are offered on the CBOE, have $5 strike price intervals. and
typically have a bid-ask spread slightly higher than that of the NDX option.
NDX Option
MNX Option
Number of Expirations
Nearest three
months plus Mar-JunSep-Dec qtrly cycle
Exercise Type
American
European
European
Exchange
AMEX
CBOE
CBOE
86
29
80
150,000
25,000
25,000
$1
$50
$5
23
Trading hours for options on the CBOE are 8:30 a.m. to 3:15 p.m. Chicago time (one hour behind
Eastern Std Time). QQQ Options, which trade on the AMEX, have trading hours of 9:30 a.m. to 4:15
p.m. EST.
24
Average spread is calculated from daily closing bid and ask prices in 2001. Spread is shown in basis
points as a fraction of the ATM strike price.
25
The combined NDX and MNX option position limit is 25,000 contracts on the same side of the market,
with no more than 15,000 contracts in the near-term series. 10 MNX options are equivalent to one fullvalue NDX option. Exemptions may be obtained for certain public customers and proprietary accounts of
member organizations. The position limit for QQQ options will be reduced to 75,000 in February 2002.
26
40
February 2002
For NDX options, the two nearest expirations have trading increments of $25 and all others are $50.
Volatility Handbook
In Figure 26 below, we use actual option contracts on the NDX, MNX and QQQ to
compare the transaction costs associated with a hypothetical trade. The strike prices and
premiums listed are not current and used for indicative purposes only. We examine the
March 2002 option for each series.
Option
Option
Premium
Mkt Value
of one
Contract
No. of contracts
needed for $30
million notional
exposure
BidBid- Ask
Spread
Cost
Commission
Total Cost
Total Cost on
Notional Amt
( in bps)27
QQQ Mar
40 Call
$3
$300
7500
$88,214
$22,500
$110,714
37
NDX Mar
1660 Call
$113.50
$11350
188
$240,712
$563
$241,275
80
MNX Mar
160 Call
$10.81
$1081
1875
$259,152
$5,625
$264,777
88
27
Shows the total transaction cost as a fraction of the notional amount purchased, in this case, the
hypothetical amount chosen is $30,000,000.
February 2002
41
Volatility Handbook
42
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
February 2002
43
Volatility Handbook
month codes for futures and listed options. Often a number will follow the month letter.
This number represents the year of expiration.
Futures
Code
March
June
September
December
Month
Jan
F eb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Calls
Puts
44
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
The settlement value for options on futures at expiration is based on the opening prices
for the quarterly expirations (March, June, September and December). For all other
months, the settlement value is determined as of the closing price.
OEX options expire using the last reported sales price in the primary market of each
component stock on the last business day before the expiration date (usually expiration
week Fridays close) or on the day the exercise notice is properly submitted if exercised
before expiration.
The National Over-the-Counter (OTC) Index options use the closing prices of the last
trading day before expiration as a settlement price(usually the expiration weeks Friday
close). Some sector options also use the closing rather than opening price including, XCI,
XOI, XAU and UTY.
28
28
XCI: AMEX Computer Technology Index, XOI: AMEX Oil Index, XAU: Philadelphia Gold and Silver
Index, UTY: Philadelphia Utility Index
February 2002
45
Volatility Handbook
46
February 2002
Volatility Handbook
Margin Limits
Ini: 5000
Ini: 4000
Speculator
Ini: 4688
500
Ini: 3750
Speculator
Ini: 13500
500
RD__ / RD__
Ini: 9600
500
Sec: 10000
Sec: 9600
Sec: 9600
Speculator
Ini: 15525
Sec: 11500
Hedger
Ini: 11500
NASDAQ
100
9:30 16:00
ND__ / ND__
Sec: 11500
Speculator
Ini: 22275
Sec: 16500
Hedger
Ini: 16500
250
ND__ / ND__
Sec: 16500
Speculator
Ini: 15000
Sec: 12000
Hedger
Ini: 12000
Same as S&P 500 Same as S&P 500
250
ND__ / ND__
Sec: 12000
Speculator
Ini: 8348
Sec: 6750
Hedger
Ini: 6750
DJIA
(INDU / .DJI)
ND__ / ND__
Sec: 10000
Hedger
RL__ / RL__
S&P/BARRA Value
(IVX / .SZX)
Sec: 3750
Speculator
Ini: 9600
NasdaqNasdaq- 100
(NDX / .NDX)
Sec: 3750
Hedger
Ini: 10000
Russell 2000
(RIY / .RUI)
Sec: 4000
Hedger
MD__ / MD__
Russell 1000
(RTY / .RUT)
Sec: 4000
Hedger
ES__ / ES__
S&P MidMid- Cap 400
(MID / .MID)
Speculator
NYSE
9:30 16:00
7:20 15:15
10
Sec: 6750
Speculator
Ini: 6000
Sec: 5000
Hedger
Ini: 5000
Sec: 5000
Source: Bloomberg
* - On the last business day of each calendar quarter, settlement prices are based on sampling the 3:05 PM (Chicago time) cash index values. CME stock index
futures and options will close at 3:05 PM (Chicago time) on such days. Please note that regular settlement procedures will be observed on all other trading days
apart from the last business day of each calendar quarter. All domestic stock index futures and options, including the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap 400, S&P?BARRA
Growth and Value Indices, E-Mini S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, E-Mini Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 Markets.
February 2002
47
Volatility Handbook
48
February 2002
New York
745 Seventh Avenue
New York, NY 10019 USA
1.212.526.7000
London
One Broadgate
London EC2M 7HA England
44.20.7256.4275
Tokyo
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Minato-ku Tokyo 107 Japan
813.5571.7357
Hong Kong
One Pacific Place
88 Queensway, Hong Kong
852.2869.3000
This material has been prepared and/or issued by Lehman Brothers Inc., member SIPC, and/or one of its affiliates (Lehman Brothers) and has been approved
by Lehman Brothers International (Europe), regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority, in connection with its distribution in the European Economic Area.
This material is distributed in Japan by Lehman Brothers Japan Inc., and in Hong Kong by Lehman Brothers Asia Limited. This material is distributed in Australia by
Lehman Brothers Australia Pty Limited, and in Singapore by Lehman Brothers Inc., Singapore Branch. This document is for information purposes only and it should
not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned in it. No part of this document may be
reproduced in any manner without the written permission of Lehman Brothers. We do not represent that this information, including any third-party information, is
accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. It is provided with the understanding that Lehman Brothers is not acting in a fiduciary capacity.
Opinions expressed herein reflect the opinion of Lehman Brothers and are subject to change without notice. The products mentioned in this document may not be
eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. If an investor has any doubts about product suitability, he
should consult his Lehman Brothers representative. The value and the income produced by products may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than he
invested. Value and income may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
results. If a product is income-producing, part of the capital invested may be used to pay that income. Lehman Brothers may make a market or deal as principal
in the securities mentioned in this document or in options, futures, or other derivatives based thereon. In addition, Lehman Brothers, its shareholders, directors,
officers and/or employees, may from time to time have long or short positions in such securities or in options, futures, or other derivative instruments based
thereon. One or more directors, officers, and/or employees of Lehman Brothers may be a director of the issuer of the securities mentioned in this document.
Lehman Brothers may have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for any issuer mentioned in this document within the last three years, or may,
from time to time, perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from any company mentioned in this
document. 2002 Lehman Brothers. All rights reserved.
Additional information is available on request. Please contact a Lehman Brothers entity in your home jurisdiction.
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