Data for building regression:

Factors GDP Agriculture and Allied secto

Year
At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore)
1970-71
209842.98
1971-72
205903.46
1972-73
195570.24
1973-74
209655.02
1974-75
206461.23
1975-76
233073.63
1976-77
219606.21
1977-78
241646.45
1978-79
247210.37
1979-80
215630.01
1980-81
243420.90
1981-82
254622.33
1982-83
253907.26
1983-84
279605.15
1984-85
284037.15
1985-86
284929.80
1986-87
283763.06
1987-88
279257.48
1988-89
322932.36
1989-90
326772.53
1990-91
339892.76
1991-92
333256.39
1992-93
355421.30
1993-94
367230.91
1994-95
384549.44
1995-96
381875.38
1996-97
419758.56
Data for forecasting & regression:
1997-98
409039.06
1998-99
434892.19
1999-00
446515.30
2000-01
445402.59
2001-02
473248.49
2002-03
438966.26
2003-04
482676.52
2004-05
482910.17
2005-06
511113.98
2006-07
531315.45

Tractors Sales Time- S

Tractors Sales Time- S

AGRICULTURE & ALLIED SECTOR

Institutional Rural Credit
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares) Long Term (in billlion Rs)
33880
5.22
33675
6.38
34465
7.92
35318
9.85
36689
11.50
38538
17.72
38847
21.60
40562
25.20
42489
29.08
43053
35.68
42932
42.89
43934
48.43
44453
59.95
46249
71.85
46262
86.70
46128
103.77
47723
116.45
46826
137.42
50808
152.39
51313
181.60
52134
193.13
53432
207.23
54744
225.76
56135
240.37
58035
263.78
58062
282.27
61409
309.11

62271
65341
66247
64183
66109
61722
65176
66298
67968
70493

Tractors Sales Time- Series

329.50
338.86
497.24
373.02
452.34
542.24
704.54
862.59
1079.88
1324.77

Tractors Sales Time- Series

Rainfall
Tractors
Annual (mm) Sales
92.6
15760
127.8
16575
120.9
18354
151.2
19875
124.4
26578
148.0
32765
95.6
33473
167.4
39667
117.8
51428
142.4
58027
92.4
68087
86.6
83301
111.5
63714
119.7
74238
92.0
80263
161.4
78232
152.7
77889
160.7
90510
87.7
106250
89.4
117300
165.3
137123
106.8
146800
112.0
146770
134.9
139072
130.9
164075
123.9
191200
130.9
228612

167.0
157.0
141.0
66.4
125.8
77.6
120.5
119.2
136.4
100.8

253276
256558
260762
237189
215005
165702
191677
247531
290546
352781

Check for Collinearity:

GDP Agriculture and Allied sector

GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION
Institutional Rural Credit
Annual Rainfall

GDP Agriculture and Allied secto

1

From the above collinearity table, we get to know that factors- GDP, Gross are
correlated to each other. Therefore, we can run regression with only one

GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATIONInstitutional Rural CreditAnnual Rainfall

0.9784348241
0.9825617815 0.0197360004
1
0.9648101376 0.0111788643
1 0.0503492988
1

- GDP, Gross area under irrigaton & Institutional rural credit are highly
on with only one factor among these three and the annual rainfall.

l Rainfall

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9761805924
R Square
0.9529285489
Adjusted R Square
0.949005928
Standard Error
12896.01952731
Observations
27

Regression using factor

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
2 80802604135.1 40401302068
24 3991375671.57 166307319.65
26 84793979806.7

Coefficients
Intercept
39960.49672733
Institutional Rural Credi 572.0504063365
Annual Rainfall
-127.903507655

Standard Error
t Stat
12548.3060018 3.184533173
25.9534372783 22.041412095
97.7961991988 -1.307857654

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Sales
1 31102.73503954
2 27264.11004143
3 29027.60187001
4 26256.18287229
5 30627.8800479
6 31167.51079465
7 40089.21017237
8 32965.11978554
9 41528.68934182
10 42157.79573533
11 52677.45454777
12 56588.45414327
13 59993.67748366
14 65752.26855629
15 77790.14425243
16 78678.54125733
17 87044.90092628
18 98017.56988591
19 115918.1205276
20 132410.2769337
21 129298.1418877

Residuals
-15342.7350395
-10689.1100414
-10673.60187
-6381.18287229
-4049.8800479
1597.48920535
-6616.21017237
6701.88021446
9899.31065818
15869.2042647
15409.5454522
26712.5458567
3720.32251634
8485.73144371
2472.85574757
-446.54125733
-9155.90092628
-7507.56988591
-9668.12052759
-15110.2769337
7824.8581123

Annual

Long Term (in

22 144846.4078149
23 154781.4036045
24 160210.0697158
25 174113.3837587
26 185585.9203255
27 200044.4286779

1953.59218513
-8011.40360448
-21138.0697158
-10038.3837587
5614.07967454
28567.5713221

ession using factors- Institutional Rural Credit and Annual Rainfall.

F
Significance F
242.93159287 1.183290E-016

P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
0.003987124 14062.066019 65858.927435 14062.066019
1.95188E-017 518.48514447 625.6156682 518.48514447
0.2033111226 -329.74494251 73.937927204 -329.74494251

Annual (mm) Residual Plot

Long Term (in billlion Rs) Residual Plot

Upper 95.0%
65858.927435
625.6156682
73.937927204

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.9741572254
0.9489822999
0.9447308249
13425.71201356
27

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

2
24
26

Coefficients
Intercept
-228432.660146
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares 6.9613727891
Rainfall Annual (mm)
-43.3900890989

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Sales
1 3400.727698316
2 446.3151402694
3 6245.191258445
4 10868.52254786
5 21575.41902957
6 33422.99121389
7 37847.6960745
8 46671.04201052
9 62237.75579443
10 65096.57385565
11 66423.75220311
12 73650.71025457
13 76183.24951355
14 88330.07631218
15 89622.47962647
16 85678.38348927
17 97159.26686305
18 90567.79475844
19 121455.4577089
20 124897.1878159
21 127319.1671132

22 138893.3492057
23 147801.0418417
24 156490.678351
25 169890.8470067
26 170382.5346957
27 193379.7886173

Regression using factors- Gross Area under irrigation and Annual Rai

SS
MS
F
Significance F
80467985973 40233992986 223.21248453 3.109213E-016
4325993833.71 180249743.07
84793979806.7
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
19738.0270946 -11.573226597 2.63511E-011 -269169.94588 -187695.37442
0.3294870183 21.127912186 5.13857E-017 6.281345006 7.6414005723
101.690312291 -0.4266885224 0.6734093896 -253.26857837 166.48840017

GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares) Residual Plot

Residuals
12359.2723017
16128.6848597
12108.8087416
9006.47745214
5002.58097043
-657.99121389
-4374.6960745
-7004.04201052
-10809.7557944
-7069.57385565
1663.24779689
9650.28974543
-12469.2495136
-14092.0763122
-9359.47962647
-7446.38348927
-19270.2668631
-57.7947584358
-15205.4577089
-7597.1878159
9803.83288685

Annual (mm) Residual Plot

7906.65079431
-1031.04184168
-17418.678351
-5815.84700666
20817.4653043
35232.2113827

r irrigation and Annual Rainfall.

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-269169.94588 -187695.37442
6.281345006 7.6414005723
-253.26857837 166.48840017

res) Residual Plot

al Plot

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9741635832
R Square
0.9489946869
Adjusted R Square
0.9447442441
Standard Error
13424.08204459
Observations
27
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
2 80469036316.9
24 4324943489.76
26 84793979806.7

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept
-149598.605552 17080.4388752
GDP- Agricultural & Allied activiti
0.8643826045 0.0409066459
Rainfall Annual (mm)
-61.7810175675 101.691419857

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Sales
1 26065.09456053
2 20485.14818062
3 11979.57865059
4 22282.25745432
5 21177.32851039
6 42722.59680192
7 34318.9180686
8 48934.23826911
9 56807.93743036
10 27990.61052359
11 55101.61641988
12 65142.27134222
13 62985.8312696
14 84692.03443062
15 90234.31222529
16 86718.30319528
17 86247.28549306
18 81858.49220113
19 124120.317606
20 127334.6621579
21 133986.381632

Residuals
-10305.0945605
-3910.14818062
6374.42134941
-2407.25745432
5400.67148961
-9957.59680192
-845.918068602
-9267.23826911
-5379.93743036
30036.3894764
12985.3835801
18158.7286578
728.168730399
-10454.0344306
-9971.31222529
-8486.30319528
-8358.28549306
8651.50779887
-17870.317606
-10034.6621579
3136.61836805

22 131864.2116978
23 150701.9090472
24 159495.1432923
25 174712.109169
26 172833.1578698
27 205146.2525009

14935.7883022
-3931.90904724
-20423.1432923
-10637.109169
18366.8421302
23465.7474991

Regression using factors- GDP & Annual Rainfall.

MS
F
Significance F
40234518158 223.26960759 3.100166E-016
180205978.74

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
-8.7584755079 6.12280E-009 -184850.89878 -114346.31233 -184850.89878
21.130615482 5.12359E-017 0.7799554369 0.9488097721 0.7799554369
-0.6075342212 0.5492022802 -271.66179274 148.09975761 -271.66179274

Annual (mm) Residual Plot

At 1999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore) Residual Plot

infall.

Upper 95.0%
-114346.31233
0.9488097721
148.09975761

lot

sidual Plot

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9744607451
R Square
0.9495737438
Adjusted R Square
0.9475566935
Standard Error
13077.98601013
Observations
27

In all the three MLR, p-va

running single factor linea

Tracto

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
1 80518136854.6 80518136855
25 4275842952.03 171033718.08
26 84793979806.7

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
Intercept
24288.80750722 3777.4018228 6.430030123
Institutional Rural Credi 570.3413798686 26.2862656127 21.697314798

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Sales
1 27265.98951014
2 27927.58551079
3 28805.91123578
4 29906.67009893
5 30847.73337571
6 34395.2567585
7 36608.18131239
8 38661.41027991
9 40874.3348338
10 44638.58794094
11 48750.74928979
12 51910.44053426
13 58480.77323035
14 65267.83565079
15 73737.40514184
16 83473.13249619
17 90705.06119293
18 102665.1199288
19 111203.1303854
20 127862.8020914
21 134438.8382013
22 142480.6516574

Residuals
-11505.9895101
-11352.5855108
-10451.9112358
-10031.6700989
-4269.73337571
-1630.2567585
-3135.18131239
1005.58972009
10553.6651662
13388.4120591
19336.2507102
31390.5594657
5233.22676965
8970.16434921
6525.59485816
-5241.13249619
-12816.0611929
-12155.1199288
-4953.13038541
-10562.8020914
2684.16179875
4319.3483426

Long Term (in

23 153049.0774264
24 161381.7649863
25 174733.456689
26 185279.0688027
27 200587.0314384

-6279.07742637
-22309.7649862
-10658.456689
5920.93119725
28024.9685616

the three MLR, p-value for Annual Rainfall factor is more than 0.05, hence rejected. On
ing single factor linear regression:
Tractor Sales = 24288.81 + 570.35* Institutional Rural Credit

F
Significance F
470.77346945 9.822514E-018

P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
9.85544E-007 16509.102824 32068.512191 16509.102824 32068.512191
9.82251E-018 516.20380243 624.47895731 516.20380243 624.47895731

Long Term (in billlion Rs) Residual Plot

jected. On

Tractor Sales = 24288.81 + 570.35* Institutional Rura

Year
1970-71
1971-72
1972-73
1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1976-77
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97

Tractors Actual
Institutional Rural CreditSales
5.22
15760
6.38
16575
7.92
18354
9.85
19875
11.50
26578
17.72
32765
21.60
33473
25.20
39667
29.08
51428
35.68
58027
42.89
68087
48.43
83301
59.95
63714
71.85
74238
86.70
80263
103.77
78232
116.45
77889
137.42
90510
152.39
106250
181.60
117300
193.13
137123
207.23
146800
225.76
146770
240.37
139072
263.78
164075
282.27
191200
309.11
228612

Forecast Calculations:
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07

329.50
338.86
497.24
373.02
452.34
542.24
704.54
862.59
1079.88
1324.77

253276
256558
260762
237189
215005
165702
191677
247531
290546
352781

288.81 + 570.35* Institutional Rural Credit

Tractors Forcasted Sales

27266
27928
28806
29907
30848
34395
36608
38662
40875
44639
48751
51911
58481
65268
73738
83474
90706
102666
111204
127864
134441
142482
153051
161384
174736
185282
200590

212219
217558
307890
237041
282281
333555
426123
516267
640198
779871

Error
E=X-A
41057
39000
-47128
148
-67276
-167853
-234446
-268736
-349652
-427090

|E|
41057
39000
47128
148
67276
167853
234446
268736
349652
427090

|E|/A
MAPE
0.162103 65.4423
0.152014
0.18073
0.000625
0.312904
1.012984
1.223132
1.085666
1.203432
1.210639

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.9739585625
0.9485952815
0.9465390928
13204.257889
27

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
25
26

Coefficients
Intercept
-233739.19632
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATION('000 hectares6.9598011713

In all the three MLR, p-value for Annual Rainfall factor is more than 0.05, h
single factor linear regression:

Tractor Sales = -233739.2 + 6.96* Area under Irriga

SS
MS
F
Significance F
80435169146.8 80435169147 461.33667773 1.249561E-017
4358810659.84 174352426.39
84793979806.7
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
15074.3395837 -15.505766937 2.47372E-014 -264785.37985 -202693.01279
0.3240319549 21.478749445 1.24956E-017 6.2924448678 7.6271574747

l factor is more than 0.05, hence rejected. On running

9.2 + 6.96* Area under Irrigation

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-264785.37985 -202693.01279
6.2924448678 7.6271574747

Tractor Sales = -233739.2 + 6.96* Area under

Year
1970-71
1971-72
1972-73
1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1976-77
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97

Tractors Actual
GROSS AREA UNDER IRRIGATIONSales
33880
15760
33675
16575
34465
18354
35318
19875
36689
26578
38538
32765
38847
33473
40562
39667
42489
51428
43053
58027
42932
68087
43934
83301
44453
63714
46249
74238
46262
80263
46128
78232
47723
77889
46826
90510
50808
106250
51313
117300
52134
137123
53432
146800
54744
146770
56135
139072
58035
164075
58062
191200
61409
228612

Forecast Calculations:
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06

62271
65341
66247
64183
66109
61722
65176
66298
67968

253276
256558
260762
237189
215005
165702
191677
247531
290546

2006-07

70493

352781

3739.2 + 6.96* Area under Irrigation

Tractors Forcasted Sales

2066
639
6137
12074
21616
34485
36636
48572
61984
65910
65068
72041
75654
88154
88244
87312
98413
92170
119884
123399
129113
138148
147279
156960
170184
170372
193669

199668
221032
227341
212972
226381
195845
219886
227697
239318

Error
E=X-A
53608
35526
33421
24217
-11376
-30143
-28209
19834
51228

|E|
53608
35526
33421
24217
11376
30143
28209
19834
51228

|E|/A
MAPE
0.211658 14.90647
0.138472
0.128169
0.102101
0.052912
0.181909
0.147171
0.080129
0.176317

256891

95890

95890 0.271811

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9737608907
R Square
0.9482102723
Adjusted R Square
0.9461386832
Standard Error
13253.614036
Observations
27

In all the three MLR, p-value for

single factor linear regression:

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

df

SS
MS
1 80402522681.2 80402522681
25 4391457125.45
175658285
26 84793979806.7

Intercept
GDP

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
-157119.23927 11619.2855258 -13.5222806
0.8638921217 0.0403793194 21.394420056

Tractor Sales =

the three MLR, p-value for Annual Rainfall factor is more than 0.05, hence rejected. On running
e factor linear regression:
Tractor Sales = -157119 + 0.864* GDP(Agricultural & Allied Activities)

F
Significance F
457.72120952 1.371977E-017

P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
5.32846E-013 -181049.60577 -133188.87278 -181049.60577 -133188.87278
1.37198E-017 0.7807293566 0.9470548869 0.7807293566 0.9470548869

ected. On running

s)

Tractor Sales = -157119 + 0.864* GDP(Agricultural &

Year
1970-71
1971-72
1972-73
1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1976-77
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97

Tractors Actual
GDP Agriculture and Allied sectoSales
209842.98
15760
205903.46
16575
195570.24
18354
209655.02
19875
206461.23
26578
233073.63
32765
219606.21
33473
241646.45
39667
247210.37
51428
215630.01
58027
243420.90
68087
254622.33
83301
253907.26
63714
279605.15
74238
284037.15
80263
284929.80
78232
283763.06
77889
279257.48
90510
322932.36
106250
326772.53
117300
339892.76
137123
333256.39
146800
355421.30
146770
367230.91
139072
384549.44
164075
381875.38
191200
419758.56
228612

Forecast Calculations:
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06

409039.06
434892.19
446515.30
445402.59
473248.49
438966.26
482676.52
482910.17
511113.98

253276
256558
260762
237189
215005
165702
191677
247531
290546

2006-07

531315.45

352781

0.864* GDP(Agricultural & Allied Activities)

Tractors Forcasted Sales

24185
20782
11854
24023
21263
44257
32621
51664
56471
29185
53197
62875
62257
84460
88289
89060
88052
84159
121895
125212
136548
130815
149965
160169
175132
172821
205552

196291
218628
228670
227709
251768
222148
259914
260115
284483

Error
E=X-A
56985
37930
32092
9480
-36763
-56446
-68237
-12584
6063

|E|
56985
37930
32092
9480
36763
56446
68237
12584
6063

|E|/A
MAPE
0.224993 16.1933
0.147842
0.123069
0.039969
0.170985
0.340647
0.355997
0.05084
0.020866

301938

50843

50843 0.144122