COMPANY UPDATE

8 MAR 2016

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

BUY
INDUSTRY

OIL & GAS

CMP (as on 4 Mar 2016)

Rs 748

Target Price

Rs 850

Nifty

7,485

Sensex

24,646

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg

HPCL IN

No. of Shares (mn)

339

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn)

253/3,783

6m avg traded value (Rs mn)

1,014

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low

Rs 991/556
3M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

(10.3)

(2.1)

16.3

Relative (%)

(6.9)

(1.1)

32.7

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters

51.11

FIs & Local MFs

14.85

FIIs

19.40

Public & Others

14.64

Source : BSE

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334
Deepak Kolhe
deepak.kolhe@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7316

Strong present, perfect future

At its recent analyst meet, HPCL updated about its
(1) Strategies that resulted in operational
outperformance and (2) Aggressive capex plans of Rs
450bn over FY16-20.
HPCL improved the marketing profitability
(contributes ~85% to standalone EBITDA) and gained
market share by focusing on automation, einfrastructure, network planning, customer loyalty
programmes and higher share of lubes.
During FY14-16, EBITDA will be ~55% higher than
FY11-13. With lower crude prices reducing interest
cost by 42%, APAT will grow ~137% in the period.
HPCL is investing Rs 450bn over FY16-20 (Rs 300bn in
standalone) to add refining capacities, improve GRM,
and set up new businesses (LNG and E&P). With a
healthy OCF (~Rs 65bn p.a.) and net D/E of ~0.5x in
FY16E, funding will not be a concern. Most of the
capex is value accretive and will provide a stream of
triggers for the stock hear-on.
We believe in the near term, benefits from lower
crude in terms of balance sheet healing and lower
subsidy under-recovery are priced-in. The only
trigger left is the marketing margin expansion.
However, there may not be a linear increase in
margins owing to political compulsions and the
governments directive to increase ethanol blending.
We maintain our estimates and TP. Our SOTP target
for HPCL is Rs 850 (~4.7x FY18E EV/EBITDA for
standalone business and Rs 190/sh from
investments). Maintain BUY.

Takeaways from the analyst meet

Marketing outperformance: HPCLs volume CAGR

over FY10-15 was 4.9% vs. OMCs average of 3.3%.

Leading in Lubes: HPCLs 9MFY16 lube sales were

339k MT the largest among OMCs. HPCL gained
~4% market share among PSUs.

HMEL-Bhatinda: HPCLs Bhatinda JV will generate

+ve PAT in FY16 vs. losses of Rs 8.3bn in FY15.

Aggressive capex plans: HPCL plans to invest ~Rs

450bn over FY16-20 (consolidated) vs. current run
rate of ~Rs 45bn.
Standalone refining (Rs 210bn): (1) Capacity
expansion from 14.8 to 24.5 mtpa, (2) Residue
upgrade, and (3) To be BS VI ready.
Standalone marketing (Rs 90bn): Focus on
market share, productivity and automation.
Joint ventures (Rs 140bn): (1) 5 mtpa LNG
terminal, (2) HMEL refinery expansion from 9
to 11.25 mtpa, and (3) E&P opportunity.
Financial Summary (Standalone)
(Rs bn)
Net Sales
EBITDA
APAT
AEPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)

FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

2,233.5 2,066.3 1,687.2 1,456.9 1,535.1
52.3
56.7
63.5
62.1
62.8
17.7
27.3
28.8
29.3
30.6
52.4
80.6
85.0
86.6
90.3
14.3
9.3
8.8
8.7
8.3
8.6
6.4
5.4
5.1
4.9
12.4
17.6
17.0
15.6
14.7

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters

HPCL : COMPANY UPDATE

Benefits from declining gross under recovery

Benefits from marketing margins expansion

HPCLs gross UR will remain muted at ~Rs 65bn.

Government receivables will fall to ~Rs 17bn.

HPCL will benefit most from diesel decontrol.

Marketing segment contributes ~85% to EBITDA.

HPCL Gross UR
Govt Receivables

Marketing Margin (Rs/t)

5,500

Rs bn

300

60
40

Diesel Margins (Rs/l) RHS

Rs /l

Rs /t

5,000

1.6

4,000

FY11

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Reducing debt and lowering interest cost

Improvement in return ratio

Lower government receivables have led to sharp

reduction in total debt to ~Rs 150bn.
Total interest cost will halve to Rs 5bn.
Total Debt

Dividend yield will be ~4%.

We expect RoE/RoCE to remain strong, led by
strong profit growth.

Interest Cost RHS

RoE

Rs bn

Rs bn

FY18E

1.0
FY17E

2,500

FY18E

FY17E

FY16E

FY15

FY14

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

1.2

FY16E

3,000
FY15

100

1.4

3,500

FY14

20

FY13

200

300

25
20

250
200

15

150

10

20

RoIC

Dividend Yield

15
10

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

FY18E

FY17E

FY16E

FY15

FY14

FY13

FY18E

FY17E

FY16E

FY15

FY14

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY12

50

FY11

100

FY10

350

2.0
1.8

4,500

FY12

400

Govt share in UR
Receivables/Govt share (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 2

HPCL : COMPANY UPDATE

2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5

1,400
59.7
67.4
75.1
82.8
90.5

62
64
66
68
70

25
83.3
84.9
86.6
88.2
89.8

Crude price (USD/bbl)

35
45
55
83.3
83.3
83.3
84.9
84.9
84.9
86.6
86.6
86.6
88.2
88.2
88.2
89.8
89.8
89.8

Source : HDFC sec Inst Research

2,050
85.1
92.8
100.4
108.1
115.8
65
83.3
84.9
86.6
88.2
89.8

GRM ($/bbl)

FY18E EPS Sensitivity

Diesel Margin (Rs/KL)
1,540
1,694
1,863
65.2
71.2
77.8
72.9
78.9
85.5
80.6
86.6
93.2
88.3
94.3
100.9
95.9
101.9
108.6

INR-USD$

INR-US$

GRM ($/bbl)

FY17E EPS Sensitivity

2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5

1,400
56.6
64.3
72.0
79.7
87.4

Diesel Margin (Rs/KL)

1,694 1,863 2,000
68.2
74.9
80.3
75.9
82.6
88.0
83.6
90.3
95.7
91.3
98.0
103.3
99.0
105.6 111.0

62
64
66
68
70

30
87.0
88.6
90.3
91.9
93.5

Crude price (USD/bbl)

40
50
60
87.0
87.0
87.0
88.6
88.6
88.6
90.3
90.3
90.3
91.9
91.9
91.9
93.5
93.5
93.5

2,050
82.2
89.9
97.6
105.3
113.0
70
87.0
88.6
90.3
91.9
93.5

Source : HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 3

HPCL : COMPANY UPDATE

Assumptions

We expect diesels marketing

margin to increase by 10%/yr

Refining Business
Throughput (mnT)
GRM (US$/bbl)
Marketing Business
Total Sales (mnT)
YoY Gr (%)
Diesel Volume (mn T)
Diesel Volume Gr (%)
Petrol Volume Gr (%)
Diesel's Margin (Rs/l)
Macro
INR-US$
Crude Price (US$/bbl)
Total Sector UR (Rs bn)
HPCL gross UR (Rs bn)
HPCL net UR (Rs bn)

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

16.2
2.9

15.8
2.1

15.5
3.4

16.2
2.8

16.2
3.8

16.2
3.5

16.2
3.5

29.5
9.1
14.2
15.3
7.5
1.4

30.3
2.8
15.5
8.7
5.2
1.4

31.0
2.1
16.0
3.3
8.6
1.4

32.0
3.3
15.8
(0.9)
13.1
1.4

32.7
2.2
16.2
2.5
4.0
1.5

33.1
1.1
16.4
1.1
1.3
1.7

33.4
1.2
16.6
1.1
1.3
1.9

47.9
114.5
1,385
304
0.1

54.5
110.0
1,610
362
2.1

60.5
107.8
1,399
325
4.8

61.2
90.5
723
164
5.5

65.8
47.0
180
41
0.6

66.0
45.0
207
47
0.7

66.0
50.0
362
82
1.2

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Change In Estimates
No change in estimates

(Rs bn)
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (Rs/sh)

FY17E Old
1,456.9
62.13
29.32
86.6

FY17E New
1,456.9
62.13
29.32
86.6

% ch
-

FY18E Old
1,535.1
62.77
30.57
90.3

FY18E New
1,535.1
62.77
30.57
90.3

% ch
-

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 4

HPCL : COMPANY UPDATE

Valuation (Based on FY18)

Business

Value
(Rs bn)

Value
(Rs/sh)

2.5
5.0
7.0

20
265
13
(74)
224

58
784
38
(219)
661

EV/EBIDTA on FY18E
EV/EBIDTA on FY18E
EV/EBIDTA on FY18E
As on Mar-17E

0.75
1.00

21
48

47
143
190
850

25% discount to CMP

1x BV

EBITDA (Rs bn) Multiple

Standalone
Refining
Marketing
Pipeline
Standalone net Debt
Standalone Equity Value
Investments
Traded investments
Non traded investments
Investments Equity Value
Value per share

7.83
53.10
1.84

Valuation basis

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Peer Valuations

ONGC
RIL
GAIL
IGL
Petronet LNG*
BPCL
HPCL
IOC

Mcap
(Rs bn)
1,717
3,257
433
75
183
589
253
944

CMP
(Rs/sh)
201
1,006
341
534
244
815
748
389

Rating
BUY
BUY
NEU
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY

TP
(Rs/sh)
210
1155
380
610
305
925
850
465

EPS (Rs/sh)
FY16E FY17E FY18E
16.6
15.9
20.0
83.9
95.2
112.9
15.9
24.5
31.3
30.1
32.8
38.4
12.1
16.5
23.5
75.3
75.8
82.6
85.0
86.6
90.3
40.7
41.1
55.8

FY16E
12.1
12.0
21.5
17.7
20.2
10.8
8.8
9.6

P/E (x)
FY17E
12.6
10.6
13.9
16.3
14.8
10.8
8.7
9.5

FY18E
10.0
8.9
10.9
13.9
10.4
9.9
8.3
7.0

FY16E
1.1
1.4
1.4
3.1
2.9
2.3
1.4
1.3

P/BV (x)
FY17E
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.7
2.5
2.0
1.3
1.2

FY18E
1.0
1.1
1.2
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.2
1.0

FY16E
9.6
11.9
6.8
18.7
15.0
22.5
17.0
13.8

ROE (%)
FY17E
8.8
12.2
9.9
17.7
18.0
19.8
15.6
12.7

FY18E
10.6
13.0
11.7
18.1
21.9
19.0
14.7
15.8

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, * Consolidated

Page | 5

HPCL : COMPANY UPDATE

Standalone Income Statement

(Rs bn)
Revenues
Growth (%)
Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
Operating Expenses
EBIDTA
EBIDTA Margin (%)
Growth (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Other Income
Interest
Exceptional items
PBT
Tax
RPAT
APAT
Growth (%)
AEPS

FY14
2,233.52
8.0
2,065.26
20.30
95.65
52.30
2.3
43.1
22.02
30.29
9.82
13.36
0.58
27.32
8.82
18.51
17.75
115.0
52.4

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Standalone Balance Sheet

FY15
2,066.26
(7.5)
1,891.86
24.15
93.59
56.67
2.7
8.3
19.79
36.88
11.68
7.07
(0.04)
41.45
14.21
27.24
27.30
53.8
80.6

FY16E
1,687.23
(18.3)
1,500.55
25.84
97.33
63.51
3.8
12.1
26.18
37.33
11.80
5.86
43.27
14.50
28.78
28.78
5.4
85.0

FY17E
1,456.86
(13.7)
1,265.86
27.65
101.22
62.13
4.3
(2.2)
26.61
35.52
14.04
5.48
44.09
14.77
29.32
29.32
1.9
86.6

FY18E
1,535.13
5.4
1,337.51
29.58
105.27
62.77
4.1
1.0
28.59
34.18
16.74
4.95
45.97
15.40
30.57
30.57
4.3
90.3

(Rs bn)
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital
Reserves
Total Shareholders Funds
Long- term Debt
Short-term Debt
Total Debt
Deferred Taxes
Long-term Provisions &
Others
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block
CWIP
LT Investments
LT Loans & Advances
Other non-current assets
Total Non-current Assets
Inventories
Debtors
Cash & Equivalents
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
TOTAL APPLICATION OF
FUNDS

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

3.39
146.73
150.12
155.55
163.77
319.32
39.08

3.39
156.83
160.22
148.56
22.00
170.56
41.04

3.39
175.42
178.81
148.56
15.50
164.06
41.04

3.39
194.36
197.75
143.56
5.50
149.06
41.04

3.39
214.07
217.46
128.56
5.50
134.06
41.04

77.95

88.74

101.22

115.58

132.10

586.47

460.55

485.13

503.42

524.65

259.12
45.86
57.36
15.76
1.46
379.55
187.68
54.66
51.59
106.45
400.38
108.86
84.59
193.46
206.92

290.63
34.74
58.68
14.30
1.17
399.51
129.72
36.03
53.91
56.33
275.99
89.36
125.60
214.95
61.04

304.45
34.74
58.68
14.30
1.17
413.33
127.29
37.00
58.63
56.33
279.25
81.86
125.60
207.46
71.80

317.84
34.74
58.68
14.30
1.17
426.72
109.91
31.95
74.79
56.33
272.98
70.68
125.60
196.28
76.70

329.24
54.74
58.68
14.30
1.17
458.13
115.82
33.66
60.79
56.33
266.60
74.48
125.60
200.08
66.53

586.47

460.55

485.13

503.42

524.65

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 6

HPCL : COMPANY UPDATE

Standalone Cash Flow

(Rs bn)
Reported PAT
Non-operating & EO items
PAT from Operations
Depreciation
Interest expenses
Working Capital Change
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a )
Capex
Free cash flow (FCF)
Investments
Other Income
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b )
Debt Issuance
Interest expenses
FCFE
Share capital Issuance
Dividend
Others
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c )
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c)
EO Items
Closing Cash & Equivalents
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Standalone Key Ratios

FY14
FY15 FY16E
17.34
27.33
28.78
6.19
7.86
7.90
11.15
19.47
20.87
22.02
19.79
26.18
13.36
7.07
5.86
20.09 168.24
6.45
66.63 214.57
59.35
(48.50) (45.73) (40.00)
18.12 168.84
19.35
25.30
(1.32)
6.58
7.83
7.90
(16.62) (39.22) (32.10)
(5.27) (148.76)
(6.50)
(13.36)
(7.07)
(5.86)
(0.51)
13.01
7.00
(6.14)
(9.71) (10.18)
1.66
(7.53)
(23.11) (173.06) (22.54)
26.89
2.29
4.72
(0.39)
0.03
51.59
53.91
58.63

FY17E
29.32
9.41
19.91
26.61
5.48
25.61
77.61
(40.00)
37.61
9.41
(30.59)
(15.00)
(5.48)
17.13
(10.38)
(30.86)
16.16
74.79

FY18E
30.57
11.22
19.35
28.59
4.95
12.70
65.59
(60.00)
5.59
11.22
(48.78)
(15.00)
(4.95)
(14.36)
(10.86)
(30.81)
(14.00)
60.79

PROFITABILITY %
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
APAT margin
RoE
Core RoCE
RoCE
EFFICIENCY
Tax rate %
Fixed Asset turnover (x)
Inventory (days)
Debtor (days)
Other current assets (days)
Payables (days)
Other Curr Liab & Prov (days)
Cash conversion cycle (days)
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)
Net D/E
Interest coverage
PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs)
CEPS (Rs)
DPS (Rs)
BV (Rs)
VALUATION
P/E (x)
P/Cash EPS (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Revenue (x)
OCF/EV (%)
FCFF/EV (%)
FCFE/M CAP (%)
Dividend Yield (%)

FY14

FY15 FY16E

2.3
1.4
0.8
12.4
4.5
4.6

2.7
1.8
1.3
17.6
6.1
6.1

3.8
2.2
1.7
17.0
7.2
6.9

4.3
2.4
2.0
15.6
6.6
6.7

4.1
2.2
2.0
14.7
6.1
6.6

33.0
5.7
31
9
17
18
14
25
3.8
1.3
2.3

34.2
4.6
23
6
10
16
22
1
1.9
0.7
5.2

33.5
3.4
28
8
12
18
27
3
1.4
0.5
6.4

33.5
2.7
28
8
14
18
31
0
1.0
0.3
6.5

33.5
2.7
28
8
13
18
30
1
0.8
0.2
6.9

52.4
117.4
15.5
443.3
14.3
6.4
1.7
8.6
0.2
14.8
4.0
(0.2)
2.1

80.6
85.0
139.1 162.3
24.5
25.7
473.1 528.1
9.3
5.4
1.6
6.4
0.2
59.1
46.5
5.1
3.3

8.8
4.6
1.4
5.4
0.2
17.2
5.6
2.8
3.4

FY17E FY18E

86.6 90.3
165.2 174.7
26.2 27.4
584.0 642.2
8.7
4.5
1.3
5.1
0.2
24.7
12.0
6.8
3.5

8.3
4.3
1.2
4.9
0.2
21.4
1.8
(5.7)
3.7

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 7

HPCL : COMPANY UPDATE

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
HPCL

1,100

Date
19-Mar-15
1-Jun-15
12-Aug-15
8-Oct-15
10-Nov-15
6-Jan-16
13-Feb-16
8-Mar-16

TP

1,000
900
800
700
600
500

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

400

CMP
652
675
882
789
734
882
690
748

Reco
BUY
BUY
NEU
BUY
BUY
NEU
BUY
BUY

Target
740
850
930
930
850
850
850
850

Rating Definitions
BUY
: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL
: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Page | 8

HPCL : COMPANY UPDATE

Disclosure:
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