Parks, Recreation and Sport Committee

09 March 2016

Item 14

Auckland Cemeteries Capacity and Demand Update

File No.: CP2016/03451

Purpose
1.

This report provides further detailed update on the future demand for burials for the
Auckland region and highlights the future required levels of provision in Auckland
Cemeteries to meet the projected demand.

Executive Summary
2.

An analysis of the spatial alignment of facility capacity and demand has been undertaken to
provide an evidence base around where and when gaps in provision will occur. This will then
inform priorities for the investment plan for cemeteries for the current Long Term Plan (LTP)
and beyond.

3.

Overall, there is ample capacity in the Auckland region from Council and privately owned
cemeteries for body burials, but shortages are starting to appear. In Aucklands west there
are fewer than 2000 plots remaining. In the Central area, the number of plots at Council
cemeteries is very low; however the private sector provides supply in this area. In the South
there is good public capacity for burials, mostly from Manukau Memorial Gardens (MMG).
North Shore Memorial Park (NSMP) currently has limited capacity, but expansion plans have
commenced that will provide the North with at least 20 years further capacity. In addition
there is a high level of private capacity in the North to supplement public cemeteries.

4.

Several of Auckland Councils cemeteries are expected to reach full capacity within the next
10 years. These include Waikumete Cemetery (WC) which has only 1700 burial plots and
689 ash plots remaining, and Warkworth which is nearly full.

5.

Table 5: Cemetery closures

Low

Waikumete
2024
Manukau
Beyond 2048
North Shore
Beyond 2048
Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2016

Medium

High

2021
2041
2043-2048

2020
2036
2037

6.

Aucklands body burial capacity is currently 40,236 body burial plots, or 62,839 if the major
private cemetery capacity is included. However, these are concentrated in the north and
south of Auckland, while central and west Auckland have more limited capacity. In addition
to this, Auckland Council could potentially add to its cemetery capacity by expanding
Waikumete, or acquiring additional land for cemetery purposes.

7.

Auckland currently experiences around 8000 deaths per annum. As the population grows
and ages, the number of deaths is projected to reach just over 12,000 per year by 2038. The
analysis suggests that over the next 30 years Council cemeteries will need to provide
between 30,000 and as high as 60,000 body burial plots.

8.

A number of investment options were modelled to meet projected demand. These will be
addressed in a separate confidential report.

Recommendation/s
That the Parks, Recreation and Sport Committee:
a)

approve in principle continued work on optimising burial space within existing burial
areas at Waikumete Cemetery and consideration of the applicability of these
concepts at other cemeteries.

b)

note a restriction on pre-purchase of burial plots at Waikumete Cemetery in order to

extend the operational capacity of the site.

c)

note that specific acquisitions will be addressed in a separate report.

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Parks, Recreation and Sport Committee

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Item 14

Comments
9.

Auckland Council owns and operates 53 cemeteries, covering a total land area of 289
hectares. Of these cemeteries 30 have capacity remaining for further body burials. The
cemeteries range in size and services available. There are three hub cemeteries MMG,
WC and NSMP which deliver 80% of total council administered burials.

10.

As the number of people living and working within the Auckland Region continues to grow
there will be increased pressure on the burial and cremation services offered through the
Auckland Council cemeteries. As populations become more urban and people move to the
city from rural areas, pressure for those services provided by the three hub cemeteries in
particular will also increase. Whilst there are other independent providers within the region,
Council has a statutory requirement under the Burial and Cremation Act 1964 to ensure that
sufficient burial space is planned and provided across the region, by both council managed
and independently run cemeteries.

11.

It is anticipated that as traditional independent cemeteries reach their capacity there will be a
greater reliance on Council cemeteries to provide burial services into the future. Church
cemeteries are no longer investing in new land for burial development, and the high cost of
land in Auckland is a barrier for new independent providers wanting to set up a cemetery.
Supply Analysis

12.

The study included the 30 active Auckland Council cemeteries as well as the three largest
privately owned cemeteries in the region. The existing and potential supply of body burial
plots at each of the three council operated hub cemeteries and the three major private
cemeteries was assessed.

13.

The supply analysis considered both body and ash burial plots. Ash burials can be
established quickly; can fit into existing gardens or be placed on private lots. As a result ash
burial plots tend to be developed on a just in time basis. Although cremation is now more
popular than body burials, there are more body burials each year than ash burials in public
cemeteries. Each body burial also takes up more physical space and requires more
surrounding infrastructure (for example drainage and paths). For these reasons body burial
plots were the primary focus of the overall study.

14.

Aucklands total cemetery capacity is shown in table 1. Given there are around 1500 public
body burial plots required per year, there appears to be sufficient overall supply for the next
few decades.

15.

Table 1: Current Available Capacity, 2014

Burial capacity
(Council and private)
Body burials
Ash burials
Central
3,820
5,289
North
33,481
3,181
West
1,707
689
South
23,888
2,196
Total
62,839
11,355
Source: Information provided by Auckland Council.
16.

Burial capacity
(Council only)
Body burials
Ash burials
460
249
14,181
3,181
1,707
689
23,888
2,196
40,236
6,315

However, in Aucklands west there are less than 2,000 burial plots and 739 ash plots
available. In the central sector, the number of plots available for burials is under 500;
however the private sector is able to provide supply in this area. In the south there is
significant public capacity for burials, mostly from MMG. The additional capacity expected at
NSMP within the next 3 years is included in these figures, providing significant public
capacity in the north as well.

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17.

The Councils cemetery network has the capacity to develop almost 30,000 additional burial
plots at the existing cemeteries in Manukau and Waikumete. When potential expansion at
private sites is included burial capacity is increased by 57,300.
Future Supply Options

18.

Waikumete Cemetery has 43 hectares of additional open space some of which could be
potentially allocated for future capacity. The Waikumete Cemetery Reserve Management
Plan recommends protection of the area with the highest ecological values and a gradual
use of up to 18 hectares for interments, but formal planning approval has not been granted.
This area consists of 10.25 hectares that would be relatively easy to develop; generating an
additional 12,300 body burial plots and 3,075 ash plots. The topography of the remaining
7.75 hectares may constrain full development.

19.

A number of other options to increase supply in the future were analysed and specific
acquisition proposals will be addressed in a separate report.
Demand Forecasting

20.

Demand for public cemetery space is determined by four main factors the number of
people who die, their location, the methods of interment and the proportion who choose to
be buried in council owned cemeteries. As the population grows, the number of deaths
increases. Demographics, preference and supply factors can all impact on how the number
of deaths translates to demand for public cemetery space.

21.

The following table provides an overview of the key assumptions that have been used as
part of the demand forecasting.
Table 3: Summary of Demand assumptions

Projected
population
and death
rates

Interment
options

Council
cemeteries
22.

Low
Medium
High
NZ.stats - Low
NZ.stats - Medium
NZ.stats - High series
series
series
The number of people who die in Auckland is assumed to be equal
to the number of people who are buried, cremated or otherwise
disposed of.
It is assumed that the number of people who die in Auckland and
are interred or disposed of in other parts of New Zealand is equal to
the number of people who die in other parts of New Zealand and
are interred or disposed of in Auckland.
25% body burials

30% body burials

35% body burials

Preferences for body burials or cremations by ethnicity are

expected to remain unchanged over time and are not assumed to
be price sensitive. They have been adjusted by ethnicity group for
the low and high scenarios.
80 % of body burials are assumed to use double depth plots
50% public
55% public
60-90% public
cemeteries
cemeteries
cemeteries

Places with high population levels or high population growth are not necessarily the places
which experience the highest rates of death. In fact the opposite can be true. Younger
people with a lower risk of death are more likely to live in the high density inner city, or move
to newly-developed areas on the outskirts. This is shown in Figure 1, which maps the
forecasted growth in population between 2018 and 2038, along with the expected number of
deaths. Some of the areas expecting the greatest increase in population are expected to
have very few deaths.

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09 March 2016
Figure 1: Population increase and total deaths, 2018-2038

24.

Areas such as Albany, Hobsonville, Massey and central Auckland are forecast to show high
levels of population growth, but the highest number of deaths is forecast near Orewa. The
well-established North Shore shows little forecast population growth over the next 20 years,
but a considerable number of deaths.

25.

Table 4 shows the assumed preferences for interment of each major ethnic background
under high, medium and low scenarios. These figures are not specific calculations, as these
do not exist, but they reflect the general preferences of each cultural background and certain
known approximate proportions, based on Census and Auckland Cemetery sample data.

Item 14

23.

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26.

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Parks, Recreation and Sport Committee

09 March 2016

Table 4: Assumptions regarding interment preferences

High scenario
European/other
Maori
Asian
Pacific

Double depth
28%
13%
80%
13%
80%

Body burials
Single depth
7%
6%
10%
6%
10%

Total
35%
19%
90%
19%
90%

Cremation/
other
65%
81%
10%
81%
10%

Medium scenario
European/other
Maori
Asian
Pacific

24%
9%
76%
9%
76%

6%
5%
8%
7%
8%

30%
14%
84%
16%
84%

70%
86%
16%
84%
16%

Low scenario
European/other
Maori
Asian
Pacific

20%
7%
65%
5%
65%

5%
3%
10%
5%
10%

25%
10%
75%
10%
75%

75%
90%
25%
90%
25%

Source: SGS Economics and Planning 2016

27.

Figure 2 presents the compounded burial plot requirements out to 2043. The analysis
suggests that over the next 30 years Council cemeteries will need to provide between
30,000 and as high as 60,000 body burial plots.

28.

Figure 2: Council Burial Plots Required, Auckland, 2013-43

70,000

Total public burial plots

60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2013

2018

2023
Low

2028
Medium

2033

2038

2043

High

Source: SGS projections, 2016

Network Alignment
29.

To support future cemetery network planning a detailed analysis of body burial plot supply
and demand alignment has been completed. The assessment compares the medium and
high demand scenarios to existing available burial plot supply at Auckland Council operated
cemeteries.

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30.

Auckland as a whole can expect to have sufficient capacity to 2043 and beyond. The
capacity is concentrated in the north and south, which are expected to have good capacity
beyond 2043. Without further development, the west of Auckland is expected to run out of
capacity in around 2021, as the only major cemetery there is Waikumete. The central
regions demand is already exceeding its public capacity; which is being met by Purewa.

31.

Figure 3 shows the availability of cemetery plots and the sources of demand. The three
major public cemeteries Waikumete, Manukau and North Shore, plus most of the smaller
cemeteries are shown with teal dots. This indicates that they have sufficient capacity to meet
the demand from their catchments for burial plots between 2013 and 2018.

32.

Figure 3: Demand and supply alignment of body burial plots, Medium Scenario, 2013-2018

Source: SGS Economics and Planning 2016

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33.

Figure 4 shows that by 2018, some of the smaller cemeteries reach capacity, in particular
Warkworth and Kaipara Flats in the north. However, there is still sufficient capacity for
burials in other nearby cemeteries to service demand. Between 2018 and 2023, Waikumete
reaches capacity. The outermost areas of its catchment are identified as unserviced (no
cemetery within a 30 minute drive). Those located within the Auckland metro area can
access North Shore or Manukau instead, but Karekare is left unserviced, marked as a small
red dot on the west coast. This constrained capacity will increase the required travel times
for people whose families live in west and north Auckland, as they will have to drive further
(although still less than 30 minutes) to visit the deceased. It also means that North Shore
and Manukau will fill up more quickly as their role expands.

34.

Figure 4: Demand and supply alignment of Body burial plots, Medium Scenario, 2018-2023

Source: SGS Economics and Planning 2016

35.

More of the smaller cemeteries have reached capacity by 2023-28, as shown in figure 5.
Army Bay on the east coast and South Head on the west coast no longer have an active
cemetery within 30 minutes drive, as Wainui, Helensville and Kaukapakapa reach capacity.
In the south, Papakura South also reaches capacity; however there are other cemeteries in
the area that are able to absorb demand and no areas are identified as unserviced in the
south. Most significantly, Waikumete has no capacity in this period.

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36.

Figure 1: Demand and supply alignment of Body burial plots, Medium Scenario, 2023-2028

Source: SGS Economics and Planning 2016

37.

No significant capacity changes occur between 2028 and 2033, and between 2033 and
2038, as shown in figure 6 and figure 7 respectively. Around this time, Purewa is forecast to
reach capacity and close. As a result, people in central Auckland who would have otherwise
been buried in Purewa will be buried in Manukau or North Shore, increasing the number of
burials those cemeteries will have to accommodate each year.

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38.

Figure 6: Demand and supply alignment of Body burial plots, Base Scenario - Medium,
2028-2033

Source: SGS Economics and Planning 2016

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39.

Figure 7: Demand and supply alignment of Body burial plots, Base Scenario - Medium,
2033-2038

Source: SGS Economics and Planning 2016

40.

MMG reaches capacity in around 2041. It only has sufficient capacity to inter part of the
burials demanded between 2038 and 2043, and as a result Bucklands and Eastern
Beaches, Laingholm and Armour Bay will be unserviced. This means that beyond 2040 the
most populous areas of Aucklands south will be unserviced. This will put significant
pressure on NSMP and the smaller cemeteries south of Auckland such as Ararimu, although
North Shore will still have capacity at 2043.

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41.

Figure 8: Demand and supply alignment of Body burial plots, Base Scenario - Medium,
2038-2043

Source: SGS Economics and Planning 2016

42.

A number of major cemeteries are projected to close over the next 30 years due to reaching
capacity. This will have potentially significant impacts on Aucklands cemetery network. In
some cases, this will mean that people will have to drive long distances to access their
nearest cemetery. Table 5 shows the projected year of cemetery closure under low, medium
and high demand scenarios.

43.

Table 5: Cemetery closures

Low

Waikumete
2024
Manukau
Beyond 2048
North Shore
Beyond 2048
Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2016

Auckland Cemeteries Capacity and Demand Update

Medium

High

2021
2041
2043-2048

2020
2036
2037

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Investment Recommendations
44.

To address long term demand requirements a number of supply options have been
investigated. Each option involves the expansion of an existing cemetery, or the acquisition
of privately owned land for cemetery use. When planning for future burial requirements it is
prudent to take a cautious approach, and as such the high demand scenario was used as
the basis of these options.

45.

After testing a number of scenarios recommendations have been made based on options
that leave the least number of areas unserviced. Cemetery development including consents,
planning and infrastructure can take 6-7 years to complete, so ideally these options should
be considered well in advance of exhaustion of existing capacity. Rapidly rising land prices
in Auckland also make early investment more prudent.

46.

The most preferred option is to expand Waikumete even if only partially possible.
Waikumetes relatively central location means that it can service most of the more densely
populated areas of Auckland. Of all the options, it is the one that leaves the fewest number
of areas unserviced under a high demand scenario in 2043. The expansion will need to
commence within 3 years to ensure new plots are available before the cemetery exhausts
capacity in its general burial areas. It should be noted that this is a very short timeframe to
complete the expansion, particularly given that it is subject to the outcome of a Unitary Plan
hearing, which has yet to be determined by the Independent Hearings Panel.

47.

To extend the life of current burial areas at Waikumete a project is being undertaken to
source proposals to intensify development within the existing burial areas. Any proposals
must meet planning and heritage requirements, be acceptable to the public and provide
good value. Results from this project are expected by mid 2016.

48.

If Waikumete is not available for expansion, Auckland will need to consider two options to
increase burial capacity, as the location of the other options further north and south of
Auckland means that no other single option will be able to provide for the central areas.
Additionally, Waikumete alone may not provide sufficient capacity for burials much beyond
the 2040s if demand is high, and therefore other expansion options will need to be
considered.

Consideration
Local board views and implications
49.

Local Boards will receive a copy of this report for their information. A number of Local
Boards have specifically requested information regarding the capacity available within their
Local Board area. This is addressed within the analysis that has been completed, and will
be presented to the Local Boards for their information and feedback.

50.

Responsibility for decisions relating to Auckland Cemeteries rests with the governing body,
although Local Boards will be kept informed.

Mori impact statement

51.

The matters raised here are of critical interest to mana whenua.

52.

Te Ao Mori will be considered in preparing a cemetery investment plan, including three key
areas, Te Reo Mori (Mori language), tikanga Mori (protocols and customs) and Te Tiriti o
Waitangi (the Treaty of Waitangi). Together, these three areas will provide a broad overview,
and a better understanding of Mori culture and Mori realities for the delivery of cemetery
and cremation services.

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53.

A number of cemeteries provide urupa areas within cemeteries for Mori and tikanga Mori
is provided for. A Whi Tapu Mori Komiti has been in place since 1996 at Waikumete
Cemetery to oversee the operation of the Whi Tapu Mori area. Consultation was
undertaken for the development of the Cemeteries and Crematoria Bylaw 2014 / Te Ture Rohe mo g Whi Tapu me ng WhareTahu Tuppaku 2014 and Cemeteries and
Crematoria Code of Practice 2014 / Arataki Tikanga mo ng Whi Tapu me ng Whare
Tahu Tuppaku 2014. The Code of Practice, in particular, provides for Te Ao Mori.

Implementation
54.

It would be ideal if the most preferred option, expanding Waikumete, could occur in the next
3-4 years before the site runs out of capacity. This would reduce the disruption from closing
and reopening the cemetery and its support facilities.

55.

To support keeping Waikumete open for long enough to plan and implement any expansion,
restrictions should be placed on pre-need sales of burial plots. While this will impact on the
financial position of Waikumete, it will ensure the remaining plots are reserved for immediate
use until there are either more plots developed on site or an alternative site has been
purchased.

56.

The results of the current procurement exercise may also provide some additional
development opportunities within existing burial areas to extend the supply at Waikumete.

57.

Other expansion options, whether chosen as alternatives or complements to Waikumetes

expansion, would allow for a longer development timeframe. The expansion at North Shore
and the existing capacity at Manukau will provide for sufficient capacity for most areas until
at least the 2030s.

58.

Further expansions or acquisitions need not be finalised immediately to meet current

demand. However, the long term planning requirements of these recommendations should
be considered to ensure that currently available expansion areas are not taken over for other
purposes. Large areas of flat, easily developed land are attractive for other purposes and if
their acquisition is not secured then finding alternative suitable sites that do not leave large
areas of Auckland unserviced will become increasingly difficult.

Attachments
There are no attachments for this report.

Signatories
Author

Catherine Moore - Manager Auckland Cemeteries

Authorisers

Mace Ward - General Manager Parks, Sports and Recreation

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Item 14

Parks, Recreation and Sport Committee

09 March 2016