FINSOC Presents: CFA Financial Modelling Workshop

ASB G24 | Thursday 14th May, 1-2pm

2015 Semester 1 | James Beckett

Table of Contents
Introduction to FINSOC
Welcome to Microsoft Excel
General Excel Tips
Excel Shortcuts
Absolute Referencing
Basic Functions
Navigating the Spreadsheet
Charts
Autofilter
Index and Match
Vlookup
Pivot Tables
Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Example

Key
=

use these cells as a guide for where to put your answers or formulas

2015 Semester 1 | James Beckett

What is FINSOC?

FINSOC is a student society whose mission is to help students find the right career path and
aid them in pursing opportunities in the financial services industry
What does FINSOC do?
FINSOC Universities

A society for Australian university students studying

Finance & Banking. We help students to find the right
career path and.make valuable collections to allow them to
prosper
We operate across three universities: ...UNSW, ANU and
Sydney University
At UNSW we are an Arc affiliated ...organisation that will
be running events ...throughout 2015 so keep an eye out
for ...us!

Our Sponsors

ht career path and to

Welcome to Microsoft Excel

If this is the first time you have used Excel, this workshop will get you up and running.
Spreadsheets are incredibly versatile and widely used by companies, organisations, universities an

What is a spreadsheet?

A spreadsheet is essentially an enormous sophisticated calculator which can help you manage lo
Each little rectangle is called a "cell" which can be used to store numbers, text, dates, times and
Each cell has a name for it: by calling it the column letter first, then the row number.

This cell is called B16

The entire sheet you see is called a worksheet (the name of this Worksheet is "Introduction to E
The entire file consists of many worksheets and is called a workbook (this name of this workbook

Why are spreadsheets useful?

The power of a spreadsheet is that it automatically calculates things for you.
As an example, if we have the dimensions of a rectangle and wish to work out the area we can wo
Length
Width
Area

10
5

and running.
nisations, universities and just about everyone.

can help you manage lots of data.

, text, dates, times and much, much more.
ow number.

et is "Introduction to Excel")
name of this workbook is "Financial Modelling Workshop")

k out the area we can work out its area:

General Tips for Financial Modelling in Microsoft

Keep everything neat and tidy - use a sensible font such as Arial or Calibri
Make sure your model is well formatted
Consider using a cover page for the model

Try to learn and use keyboard shortcuts in Excel. In particular, learn the cell navigatio

Consider using colour-coding and having a legend in the model. This will make your model eas
is auditing it. A commonly used colour coded system is:
Legend
Formulas
Links to other worksheets

Hardcodes
Key inputs

Some DOs and DO NOTs of EXCEL

DO NOT DO THIS O
DO NOT put hardcodes (i.e. specific
amounts) in cells

DO NOT have long formulas in cells.

Break up formulas into manageable
pieces

DO turn off gridlines in before

submitting models for review. The
option for this under the View tab in
the EXCEL ribbon

Page 12

DO THIS P

g in Microsoft Excel

earn the cell navigation keyboard shortcuts. This will improve your efficiency

will make your model easier to follow for anyone who

O THIS P

Page 13

Excel Shortcuts
Throughout this spreadsheet, keyboard shortcuts will be expressed in two different ways.
1) "Key 1 + Key 2"
For example, the keyboard shortcut to 'copy' something is "Ctrl + C".
This means that both the control button and the 'C' button are pressed simultaneously.
2) "Key 1, Key 2, Key 3, ..."

For example, to use paste special, we can press "Alt, E, S, V". This means that the Alt key is presse
followed by the 'S' key, followed by the 'V' key.

Useful Excel Shortcuts

Here is a list of Microsoft Excel shortcuts. Particularly important shortcuts are in red.
Formatting shortcuts

Tab navigation

Bold
Italic
Underline
Format Box
Clear cell
Outline border
Remove border
Insert a comment
Copy
Paste
Paste Special
Cut
Repeat
Undo
Delete cells

Move/ Copy a tab

Change tab name
Moving to left/right tabs
New tab

CTRL + B
CTRL + I
CTRL + U
CTRL + 1
ALT + E + A + A
SHIFT + CTRL + &
SHIFT + CTRL + _
SHIFT + F2
CTRL + C
CTRL + V
ALT, E, S
CTRL + X
CTRL + Y
CTRL + Z
CTRL + Minus sign

Workbook navigation shortcuts

Freeze pane
New workbook
Print
Open workbook
Save workbook
Activate menu bar
Min / Restore Ribbon
Print preview
Close program

ALT + W + F
CTRL + N
CTRL + P
CTRL + O (CTRL + F12)
CTRL + S
ALT or F10
CTRL + F1
CTRL + F2
ALT + F4

Data editing shortcuts when inside cell

Highlight within cells
Anchor Fix Cells

SHIFT + Arrow keys

F4

Page 14

Row/column shortcuts
Select column
Select row
Add row
Add column
Fit column width

Data editing shortcuts

Select All
Fill Down
Fill right
Find
Replace
Edit cells
Start a formula
Insert AutoSum formula

Cell navigation shortcuts

Go to end of a range of cells
Select a cell range
Highlight range
Move to cell A1
Move to cell above
Move to cell to the right
Move to cell to the left

o different ways.

multaneously.
that the Alt key is pressed, followed by the 'E' key,

are in red.

ALT, H, O, M
ALT, H, O, R
CTRL + Pg Up/Down
SHIFT + F11

shortcuts
CTRL + Space
Shift + Space
Alt, I, R
Alt, I, C
ALT + H + O + I

g shortcuts
CTRL + A
CTRL + D
CTRL + R
CTRL + F
CTRL + H
F2
= (equal sign)
ALT + +

ion shortcuts

range of cells

CTRL + Arrow
SHIFT + Arrow
SHIFT + CTRL + Arrow
CTRL + Home
SHIFT + ENTER
TAB
SHIFT + TAB

Page 15

Absolute Referencing
This is a simple example demonstrating absolute/relative referencing.

Forecasted Revenue
2015
Revenue
growth rate

5.00%

1,000

2016

2017

2018

1,050

STEP 1
Take a look at the formula in cell E10, it says "=D10*(1+C10)".
If you go to cell E10, and press F2 on your keyboard, you should notice that you are able to edit

In this formula, move your cursor over "C10".Try pressing F4 a few times. You should see dollar s
parts of the cell reference. Try to press F4 until you see this: "$C$10".
STEP 2
In the bottom right hand corner of the active cell, you should notice there's a square box. If you
mouse, it changes to a plus sign.
This is the fill handle. If you drag a cell reference using the fill handle or copy a cell, the formul
on the referencing.

Now, move your cursor back to cell E10, and use the fill handle to drag across to cell I10. Notice
change?

This is an absolute reference. When we move across columns, any column reference with a dolla
change.
STEP 3

We have similar results for row references. Try changing the formula in cell D4 to say "=C$10". T
paste into cell E11.

5 x 5 Multiplication Table
As another example, we let us create a 5 by 5 multiplication table.
Go to cell C41. Then use the fill handle to drag across to cell G41 to create the top row.
Similarly, for column C, copy G41 down to C45
Finally, copy cell C41, to fill the entire 5 by 5 Times Table

1
2
3

1
1

4
5

2019

2020

tice that you are able to edit the formula.

imes. You should see dollar signs ..appearing in front of

".

there's a square box. If you hover over ..this with your

dle or copy a cell, the formula that is copied ..depends

drag across to cell I10. Notice how the ..formula didn't

column reference with a dollar sign in front ..of it won't

a in cell D4 to say "=C$10". Then copy cell ..E10 and

create the top row.

Basic Functions (IF, COUNT, SUM, COUNTIF, SUM

Let's look at the example below. We want to identify how many technology stocks there are:
Company
Apple
Rio Tinto
Ebay
Total

Industry
Technology
Resources
Technology

IF

# of companies sur

Now, go to cell F12, and press "Alt + =". This is the autosum function. It guesses that you want
column above it. Press enter. We can see that there are 2 technology companies.
Now let's count how many companies we surveyed. Here, we use the COUNTA function. Type ..
cell J12 above. This can be used to count cells with text in them.
Note that the answer is 5 and not 6, and it didn't count the blank cells.
To count cells with numbers in them, use the "COUNT" function instead of the COUNTA function
We can also count the number of technology companies using the SUMIF and COUNTIF functions:

Using the COUNTIF function:

Using the SUMIF function:

2
0

Counts the number of cells that contain the word "Tec

Here, we are looking at cells that contain the word ap
summing the cells that correspond to these (in the ran

OUNTIF, SUMIF)

ogy stocks there are:

# of companies surveyed

n. It guesses that you want to sum the ...numbers in the

ompanies.
e COUNTA function. Type ..."=COUNTA(D8:D13)" into

ad of the COUNTA function.

F and COUNTIF functions:

that contain the word "Technology"

s that contain the word apple (i.e. Range E9:E11) &
espond to these (in the range F9:F11)

Navigating the Spread Sheet

Go to cell C12. Hold down "Shift + RightArrowKey" and stop at around cell I12.
Now press "Ctrl + R". The formula from Cell C12 copies Right across the highlighted cells.
Now go to cell C12. Hold down "Shift + DownArrowKey" and stop around cell C26.
This time, press "Ctrl + D". The formula from cell C12 copies Down the highlighted cells.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Now go to cell A1.

Hold down "Ctrl" & press the up/down arrow keys. You quickly move to the top & bottom of the co
Go back to cell C12 again.
Hold down "Ctrl" and press the left/right arrow keys. You quickly move to the right and left of the r
You can quickly switch between sheets by pressing "Ctrl + PgUp" or "Ctrl + PgDn"

e highlighted cells.
d cell C26.
highlighted cells.

the top & bottom of the column of data.

o the right and left of the row of data.

rl + PgDn"

Charts
Interest
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%

NPV
116.47
-2.42
-117.16
-227.94
-334.94

Year
2000
2001
2003
2004
2006

Interest Rate
2%
10%
7%
3%
6%

STEP 1

Let's plot the NPV against interest rates. Here's a quick way to plot the data: Try selecting cells C8

If the default type of chart doesn't suit you, you can right click on the plot area and select 'Change
You can also right click on the plot area and choose 'Select Data' if the data didn't come out the w

The graph background, borders and other settings can be changed by right clicking on the plot ar
You can format the appearance and colour of the data plotted by right clicking on one of the data
Series'.
You can also format the appearance of the axes by right clicking on the x/y-axis and selecting 'For
Try playing around with the different options!

STEP 2
For the second table, it would be more appropriate to use a scatterplot, since the years aren't con
Go to the 'Insert' tab. In the 'Charts' section, we have a number of different charts we can pick fro

Highlight cells E7:G12, then click on 'Scatter' or "Alt, N, D, Enter". Choose the second option in the
In this new chart, we can see that the temperature data is skewing the graph, so we'll plot it on a
Select the graph, then click on the 'Format' tab.
Under 'Current Selection', click on the dropdown menu, and select 'Series "Temperature"', then 'Fo
Under 'Series Options', click 'Secondary Axis', then 'Close'.

Temperature
30
31
28
29
25

lot the data: Try selecting cells C8:C12 and pressing "Alt, N, C, Enter".

n the plot area and select 'Change Chart Type'.

' if the data didn't come out the way you expected.

ed by right clicking on the plot area and selecting 'Format Plot Area'.
y right clicking on one of the data points and selecting 'Format Data
on the x/y-axis and selecting 'Format Axis'.

terplot, since the years aren't consecutive.

of different charts we can pick from.

". Choose the second option in the first row.

ng the graph, so we'll plot it on a secondary axis.

ct 'Series "Temperature"', then 'Format Selection'.

Autofilter

This
a simple
demonstrating
and
sorting.
Noteisthat
we've example
used "freeze
panes" (Alt,autofiltering
W, F) here so
the
top row doesn't disappear if you scroll

First, try to calculate the PE ratio for this list of companies in column F (F15:F26) using what was t
column!
Select cells B13:F25.
Press "Alt, D, F, F" to activate the autofilter. (It can also be found in the menus. Check the help fil
Now we can filter out various pieces of information.
Net Income ($)
841,879
448,741
583,063
563,778
585,081
822,830
377,348
776,463
747,187
819,776
890,378
648,891

Company
Juan in a Million
Wok and Roll
Oooh Girl Salon
A Salt and Battery
Hairanoia
Pho King Way
Frisky Business
Curl Up & Dye
Wok This Way
Hair We Are
Git-Yo Chicken
Smoothies

Industry
Food
Food
Hair and Beauty
Food
Hair and Beauty
Food
Hair and Beauty
Hair and Beauty
Food
Hair and Beauty
Food
Food

Market Cap ($m)

3.2
4.4
3.5
3.2
4.8
2.5
2.9
3.2
1.2
3.6
3.3
4.0

For example, lets look at only Hair and Beauty companies

In cell M1, press "Alt + DownArrowKey". This opens the autofilter menu.
Now
sort be
by options
Net Income.
Lets
open to
the
sorting menu
from cell B15.
Therelets
should
to sort
largest
smallest,
or ascending/descending.

When you've finished using the filter, don't forget to unfilter your data!
If you have a filter activated, you can press "Alt, D, F, F" from anywhere on your current sheet to

disappear if you scroll down!

F26) using what was taught in prior worksheets. Remember to lock the entries in this

nus. Check the help file.)

P/E

n your current sheet to remove the filter.

Index and Match

Given an array of data, the index function can be used to return the data at a certain row and colu
Suppose we have the following quarterly earnings data. Try to write a formula to look up revenue
functions.
Year & Quarter
2000 1
2000 2
2000 3
2000 4
2001 1
2001 2
2001 3
2001 4
2002 1
2002 2
2002 3
2002 4
2003 1
2003 2
2003 3
2003 4

Year
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003

Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Revenue ($m)
32
35
30
27
34
28
28
32
30
20
33
20
30
31
26
25

a certain row and column reference.

ula to look up revenue for Q3 2003 using the Index and Match

VLookup

Vlookup is another way to lookup data in a table. Though Vlookup seems like an easier lookup fun
flexible tool than Index and match.
The Vlookup function has 4 inputs.

The first is the data you want to look up. This should be a unique identifier (e.g. Student number a
The second input is the range you want to search and the third is the column of the range that yo

The fourth input is whether you want the match to be exact or not. When comparing data from ye
an exact match.
Try to write a lookup function using Vlookup to try and find the revenue for Q4 in the year 2001.
Year & Quarter
2000 1
2000 2
2000 3
2000 4
2001 1
2001 2
2001 3
2001 4
2002 1
2002 2
2002 3
2002 4
2003 1
2003 2
2003 3
2003 4

Year Quarter
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003

Revenue ($m)
1
32
2
35
3
30
4
27
1
34
2
28
3
28
4
32
1
30
2
20
3
33
4
20
1
30
2
31
3
26
4
25

2001 4

like an easier lookup function to master, it is a less

r (e.g. Student number as in the example above)

umn of the range that you want to return.
comparing data from year to year, you generally want

or Q4 in the year 2001.

Pivot Tables
In Excel 07 or later, create a pivot table by selecting the data (columns B:G), then going to
PivotTable' on the 'Insert' tab
Once you've done that, select the location that you want the pivot table to appear in
either on this sheet or a new worksheet, and click 'Ok'.
Note: If you're opening a spreadsheet that you've downloaded from the internet,
make sure that you choose to save it somewhere rather than just 'opening' it.

ID

Length Expenditure Age Income

58
2
454
25
100
2
434
25
701
2
375
26
35
2
514
26
76
2
407
27
681
2
425
28
50
2
384
29
99
2
407
29
719
2
453
29
146
2
479
30
766
2
442
30
182
2
396
30
849
7
1480
30
695
2
315
31
111
3
738
31
825
2
443
32
159
2
504
32
784
2
463
32
742
7
1756
32
45
2
396
33
672
2
366
33
713
2
350
33
801
2
372
34
135
3
750
34
760
3
686
34
843
7
1268
34
648
2
344
35
64
2
528
35
101
2
507
35
689
2
400
35

People
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0

Exp/day
4
4
2
4
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
4
2
2
4
3
5
5
2
2
2
2
4
4
4
2
2
4
4
4

227
217
187.5
257
203.5
212.5
192
203.5
226.5
239.5
221
198
211.42857143
157.5
246
221.5
252
231.5
250.85714286
198
183
175
186
250
228.66666667
181.14285714
172
264
253.5
200

731
540
1261
495
457
890
412
306
266
348
622
707
512
153
1096
430
1055
554
754
8
1031
907
240
324
170
406
1114
365
448
571
300
660
813
229
383
465
1090
341
414
1049
1
624
589
630
750

2
2
2
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
2
2
2
7
7
7
2
2
7
7
7
7
7
2
7
7
7
7
4
7
2
2
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
2
2
5
7
7

381
517
577
1254
1610
2022
2502
1714
1815
2017
1659
363
539
578
1474
2060
2287
514
429
1624
1307
1468
2082
1890
427
1729
1475
1468
2033
1010
1180
477
520
1037
1483
1346
1533
1901
2129
3232
602
455
942
1548
1409

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
36
36
36
36
37
37
37
37
37
37
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
39
39
39
39
39
40
40
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
42
42
42
42
42

0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

4
4
4
2
4
4
6
2
4
4
4
2
5
6
3
5
5
3
3
2
2
4
6
6
4
2
2
4
4
2
2
4
4
2
3
3
3
5
5
5
4
4
2
2
2

190.5
258.5
288.5
179.14285714
230
288.85714286
357.42857143
244.85714286
259.28571429
288.14285714
237
181.5
269.5
289
210.57142857
294.28571429
326.71428571
257
214.5
232
186.71428571
209.71428571
297.42857143
270
213.5
247
210.71428571
209.71428571
290.42857143
252.5
168.57142857
238.5
260
148.14285714
211.85714286
192.28571429
219
271.57142857
304.14285714
461.71428571
301
227.5
188.4
221.14285714
201.28571429

943
277
235
1149
164
211
123
6
318
400
361
442
536
565
478
253
878
654
807
294
377
1002
607
335
957
32
70
542
1266
736
583
223
937
459
896
117
394
1102
1061
88
200
477
913
176
10

7
7
7
2
2
3
6
7
7
7
7
7
2
3
7
7
7
2
2
7
7
7
7
7
7
2
2
2
2
3
5
6
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
2
2
7
7
2
3

1193
1687
2152
509
391
574
1315
1676
1613
1484
1530
2101
450
527
1356
2146
2368
331
446
1360
1542
1406
1788
1972
2202
362
346
603
455
681
977
926
1539
1547
1594
1110
1535
1284
2006
308
396
1703
1926
411
605

42
42
42
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
44
44
44
44
44
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
47
47
47
47
48
48
48
48
49
49

1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1

2
4
6
4
5
3
2
2
2
2
4
4
4
2
2
5
5
2
4
3
3
3
4
5
5
2
2
4
4
4
2
2
2
4
4
2
2
2
4
2
3
2
3
4
3

170.42857143
241
307.42857143
254.5
195.5
191.33333333
219.16666667
239.42857143
230.42857143
212
218.57142857
300.14285714
225
175.66666667
193.71428571
306.57142857
338.28571429
165.5
223
194.28571429
220.28571429
200.85714286
255.42857143
281.71428571
314.57142857
181
173
301.5
227.5
227
195.4
154.33333333
219.85714286
221
227.71428571
185
219.28571429
183.42857143
286.57142857
154
198
243.28571429
275.14285714
205.5
201.66666667

601
371
955
28
218
1120
819
778
579
931
1014
972
44
666
198
1137
390
471
866
82
595
636
284
990
949
130
683
725
795
1200
212
837
489
1073
538
772
925
1008
259
613
889

4
7
7
2
6
7
2
2
4
7
7
7
2
2
2
2
6
7
7
2
3
7
7
7
7
2
2
2
2
2
4
4
7
7
2
2
7
7
7
7
7

862
2130
2506
375
964
1718
415
532
813
1591
1758
1504
337
305
454
604
1362
1940
1894
394
670
1498
1628
1674
2585
470
505
484
478
594
666
606
1600
1880
433
550
1644
1670
1515
1721
1721

49
49
49
50
50
50
51
51
51
51
51
51
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
53
53
53
53
53
53
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
55
55
55
55
55
55
55

1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1

2
4
6
2
2
2
4
6
2
2
2
4
2
2
4
5
2
3
6
2
2
2
4
4
6
3
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
4
4
6
2
3
4
4
4

215.5
304.28571429
358
187.5
160.66666667
245.42857143
207.5
266
203.25
227.28571429
251.14285714
214.85714286
168.5
152.5
227
302
227
277.14285714
270.57142857
197
223.33333333
214
232.57142857
239.14285714
369.28571429
235
252.5
242
239
297
166.5
151.5
228.57142857
268.57142857
216.5
275
234.85714286
238.57142857
216.42857143
245.85714286
245.85714286

B:G), then going to

to appear in

internet,

Sensitivity Analysis
We are going to do this from scratch in the workshop.

G8 Education Discounted Cash Flow Model

(in thousands, fiscal year ending June 31)
Key assumptions
WACC assumptions

Key Assumptions

Debt / total capital:

Pre-tax cost of debt:
Post-tax cost of debt:

30%
6.50%
4.55%

Terminal growth rate:

Risk free rate:

Market risk premium:
:
Cost of equity:

3.84%
6.0%
1.40
12.24%

Case names
Case no.
Case no.
Case no.

WACC

9.93%

Selected case:

Sensitivity Analysis
2.50%

Marginal tax rate:

30.00%

1
2
3

WA
CC

Downside
Base
Aggressive

$1.33
9.43%
9.68%
9.93%
10.18%
10.43%

Terminal growth rate

2.25%

Discounted Cash Flow Model

Sales
Other sales
Total revenue
Operating exp.
EBITDA
Depreciation
Amortisation
EBIT
Tax 30%
NOPAT
Add depreciation
Add amortisation
Capex:
Net Acq.
Increase NWC
FCFF
PV of cash flows
NPV

Less net debt

Equity value

Historical Period
FY07A
3,266
60
3,326
(3,329)
-4
-67
-75
-146
44
(102)
67
75
(1,608)
0
0
-1,568

FY08A
30,412
523
30,935
(31,326)
-391
-508
-192
-1,091
327
(763)
508
192
(666)
(11,914)
2,995.5
-9,648

FY09A
33,215
165
33,380
(32,062)
1,318
-593
-184
541
-162
378
593
184
(728)
(384)
3,712.9
3,756

FY10A
65,249
796
66,045
(57,394)
8,652
-993
-144
7,515
-2255
5,261
993
144
(913)
(11,713)
10,648.3
4,420

FY11A
134,157
6,841
140,997
(119,457)
21,540
-1,711
0
19,829
-5949
13,881
1,711
0
(2,249)
(35,803)
14,084.7
-8,376

Forecast period
FY12E
177,717
0
177,717
-158,245
19,472
-2,266
0
17,206
-5162
12,044
2,266
0
(3,669)
(62,800)
14648
-37,510

FY13E
234,567
0
234,567
-208,866
25,701
-2,991
0
22,710
-6813
15,897
2,991
0
(4,083)
(5,000)
15234
25,039

FY14E
244,026
0
244,026
-217,289
26,738
-3,112
0
23,626
-7088
16,538
3,112
0
(4,273)
0
15843
31,220

0 -34121.04543 20718.415863 23498.917125

Shares outstanding
Share price

Margin and growth rates analysis

YOY historical growth rates
Sales growth (%):
Other sales growth (%):
Total revenue growth (%):
Operating exp. growth (%):
EBITDA growth (%):
Depreciation growth (%):
Amortisation growth (%):
EBIT growth (%):
NOPAT growth (%):
Capex: growth (%):
Net Acq. growth (%):
Increase NWC growth (%):

FY07A

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

FY08A

FY09A

FY10A

FY11A

FY12E

FY13E

FY14E

FY08A

FY09A

FY10A

FY11A

FY12E

FY13E

FY14E

10-12

11-12

831%
778%
830%
841%
10288%
656%
155%
647%
647%
-59%
nm
nm

9%
-68%
8%
2%
-437%
17%
-4%
-150%
-150%
9%
-97%
24%

96%
382%
98%
79%
557%
67%
-22%
1290%
1290%
25%
2948%
187%

106%
759%
113%
108%
149%
72%
-100%
164%
164%
146%
206%
32%

32%
-100%
26%
32%
-10%
32%
nm
-13%
-13%
63%
75%
4%

32%
nm
32%
32%
32%
32%
nm
32%
32%
11%
-92%
4%

4%
nm
4%
4%
4%
4%
nm
4%
4%
5%
-100%
4%

Margins
Operating exp. / Sales (%):
EBITDA / Sales (%):
Depreciation / Sales (%):
Amortisation / Sales (%):
EBIT / Sales (%):
NOPAT / Sales (%):
Capex: / Sales (%):
Net Acq. / Sales (%):
Increase NWC / Sales (%):

FY07A

101.94%
-0.12%
2.06%
2.30%
-4.47%
-3.13%
49.23%
0.00%
0.00%

103.01%
-1.29%
1.67%
0.63%
-3.59%
-2.51%
2.19%
39.18%
9.85%

96.53%
3.97%
1.79%
0.55%
1.63%
1.14%
2.19%
1.16%
11.18%

87.96%
13.26%
1.52%
0.22%
11.52%
8.06%
1.40%
17.95%
16.32%

89.04%
16.06%
1.28%
0.00%
14.78%
10.35%
1.68%
26.69%
10.50%

Averages
Sales growth (%):
Operating exp. / Sales (%):
Depreciation / Sales (%):

07-12
215%
95.70%
1.66%

Arithmetic average
08-12
09-12
215%
61%
94.13%
91.18%
1.56%
1.53%

78%
88.50%
1.40%

69%
89.04%
1.28%

91.33%
8.67%
1.31%
0.00%
7.37%
5.16%
2.12%
36.24%
8.45%

91.33%
8.67%
1.31%
0.00%
7.37%
5.16%
1.79%
2.19%
6.66%

91.33%
8.67%
1.31%
0.00%
7.37%
5.16%
1.80%
0.00%
6.66%

Model assumptions
Downside case
Sales
Other sales
Total revenue
Operating exp.
EBITDA
Depreciation
Amortisation
EBIT
Tax 30%
NOPAT
Add depreciation
Add amortisation
Capex:
Net Acq.
Increase NWC
FCFF
PV of cash flows

FY07A
3,266
60
3,326
(3,329)
-4
-67
-75
-146
44
-102
67
75
(1,608)
0
-1,568

FY08A
30,412
523
30,935
(31,326)
-391
-508
-192
-1,091
327
-763
508
192
(666)
(11,914)
2,995.5
-9,648

FY09A
33,215
165
33,380
(32,062)
1,318
-593
-184
541
-162
378
593
184
(728)
(384)
3,712.9
3,756

FY10A
65,249
796
66,045
(57,394)
8,652
-993
-144
7,515
-2255
5,261
993
144
(913)
(11,713)
10,648.3
4,420

FY11A
134,157
6,841
140,997
(119,457)
21,540
-1,711
0
19,829
-5949
13,881
1,711
0
(2,249)
(35,803)
14,084.7
-8,376

FY12E
173,274
0
173,274
(158,245)
15,029
-2,266
0
12,763
-3829
8,934
2,266
0
-3,669
-62,800
14,648
-40,620
-36,950

FY13E
228,703
0
228,703
(208,866)
19,837
-2,991
0
16,846
-5054
11,792
2,991
0
-4,083
-5,000
15,234
20,934
17,322

FY14E
237,926
0
237,926
(217,289)
20,637
-3,112
0
17,525
-5258
12,268
3,112
0
-4,273
0
15,843
26,949
20,285

FY07A
3,266
60
3,326
(3,329)
-4
-67
-75
-146
44
(102)
67
75
(1,608)
0

FY08A
30,412
523
30,935
(31,326)
-391
-508
-192
-1,091
327
(763)
508
192
(666)
(11,914)

FY09A
33,215
165
33,380
(32,062)
1,318
-593
-184
541
-162
378
593
184
(728)
(384)

FY10A
65,249
796
66,045
(57,394)
8,652
-993
-144
7,515
-2255
5,261
993
144
(913)
(11,713)

FY11A
134,157
6,841
140,997
(119,457)
21,540
-1,711
0
19,829
-5949
13,881
1,711
0
(2,249)
(35,803)

FY12E
177,717
0
177,717
(158,245)
19,472
-2,266
0
17,206
-5162
12,044
2,266
0
(3,669)
(62,800.0)

FY13E
234,567
0
234,567
(208,866)
25,701
-2,991
0
22,710
-6813
15,897
2,991
0
(4,083)
(5,000.0)

FY14E
244,026
0
244,026
(217,289)
26,738
-3,112
0
23,626
-7088
16,538
3,112
0
(4,273)
0

Base case
Sales
Other sales
Total revenue
Operating exp.
EBITDA
Depreciation
Amortisation
EBIT
Tax 30%
NOPAT
Add depreciation
Add amortisation
Capex:
Net Acq.

Increase NWC
FCFF
PV of cash flows

0
-1,568

2,995.5
-9,648

3,712.9
3,756

10,648.3
4,420

14,084.7
-8,376

14,648.1
-37,510
-34,121

15,234.0
25,039
20,718

15,843.4
31,220
23,499

FY07A
3,266
60
3,326
(3,329)
-4
-67
-75
-146
44
(102)
67
75
(1,608)
0
0
-1,568

FY08A
30,412
523
30,935
(31,326)
-391
-508
-192
-1,091
327
(763)
508
192
(666)
(11,914)
2,995.5
-9,648

FY09A
33,215
165
33,380
(32,062)
1,318
-593
-184
541
-162
378
593
184
(728)
(384)
3,712.9
3,756

FY10A
65,249
796
66,045
(57,394)
8,652
-993
-144
7,515
-2255
5,261
993
144
(913)
(11,713)
10,648.3
4,420

FY11A
134,157
6,841
140,997
(119,457)
21,540
-1,711
0
19,829
-5949
13,881
1,711
0
(2,249)
(35,803)
14,084.7
-8,376

FY12E
195,488
0
195,488
(174,069)

FY13E
258,024
0
258,024
(229,752)

FY14E
268,429
0
268,429
(239,018)

21,419

28,271

29,411

-2,266
0

-2,991
0

-3,112
0

19,153

25,280

26,300

-5746

-7584

-7890

13,407
2,266
0
(3,669)
(62,800.0)
14,648.1
-36,147

17,696
2,991
0
(4,083)
(5,000.0)
15,234.0
26,838

18,410
3,112
0
(4,273)
0.0
15,843.4
33,092

-32,881

22,207

24,908

NPV

Aggressive case
Sales
Other sales
Total revenue
Operating exp.
EBITDA
Depreciation
Amortisation
EBIT
0.3A
NOPAT
Add depreciation
Add amortisation
Capex:
Net Acq.
Increase NWC
FCFF
PV of cash flows

minal growth rate

2.50%

2.75%

FY15E
253,867
0
253,867
-226,051
27,816
-3,237
0
24,579
-7374
17,205
3,237
0
(4,273)
0
16477
32,646

FY16E
264,105
0
264,105
-235,167
28,938
-3,368
0
25,570
-7671
17,899
3,368
0
(4,273)
0
17136
34,130

TV
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
477,529

22352.131395 21256.426215 297412.66331

351,118
22,271
328,846

246800

$1.33

FY15E

FY15E

4%
nm
4%
4%
4%
4%
nm
4%
4%
0%
nm
4%

91.33%
8.67%
1.31%
0.00%
7.37%
5.16%
1.73%
0.00%
6.66%

FY16E

FY16E

4%
nm
4%
4%
4%
4%
nm
4%
4%
0%
nm
4%

91.33%
8.67%
1.31%
0.00%
7.37%
5.16%
1.66%
0.00%
6.65%

TV

TV

FY15E
247,521
0
247,521
(226,051)
21,469
-3,237
0
18,232
-5470
12,762
3,237
0
-4,273
0
16,477
28,203
19,310

FY16E
257,502
0
257,502
(235,167)
22,335
-3,368
0
18,967
-5690
13,277
3,368
0
-4,273
0
17,136
29,508
18,378

TV

FY15E
253,867
0
253,867
(226,051)
27,816
-3,237
0
24,579
-7374
17,205
3,237
0
(4,273)
0

FY16E
264,105
0
264,105
(235,167)
28,938
-3,368
0
25,570
-7671
17,899
3,368
0
(4,273)
0

TV

412,862
233,903

16,477.1
32,646
22,352

17,136.2
34,130
21,256

477,529
297,413

351,118

FY15E
279,254
0
279,254
(248,657)

FY16E
290,515
0
290,515
(258,684)

30,597

31,831

-3,237
0

-3,368
0

27,360

28,464

-8208

-8539

19,152
3,237
0
(4,273)
0.0
16,477.1
34,593

19,925
3,368
0
(4,273)
0.0
17,136.2
36,155

23,685

22,518

TV

505,871
315,064