{Article} Chinas ties with India and Pakistan

Written by {ga=khalid-rahman}

The Pakistan leg of President Xi Jinpings visit to South Asia has been postponed and new
dates of the visit will be worked out between Beijing and Islamabad in days ahead. However,
there is little doubt that the mutually agreed postponement of this visit, which could have
jump-started implementation of several important projects in the pipeline will not adversely
affect the overall close and deep rooted relationship between China and Pakistan. All the
projects agreed under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (SPEC) will continue to move ahead
irrespective of the rescheduling of the visit.

As is known, despite the postponement of the visit to Pakistan Xi Jinpings visit to India would
take place as per schedule. Such a development, in the context of triangular relationship, a few
years back, could have been viewed as an extraordinary move by many, and for some may
even today; yet, given the long standing and deep-rooted ties between China and Pakistan
there now seems a clear realization that Sino-India relations should not necessarily be seen
through the prism of Sino-Pakistan relations. The relations are neither dependent upon, nor
directed towards any other contact or the relationship Islamabad and Beijing may have, or
develop, with any other nation. Earlier, in 2013, the Chinese Prime Minister had also opted to
visit India before Pakistan during his maiden trip abroad.

Moreover the global scenario is changing. The paradigm of either one is friend or enemy which
once used to be the main denominator in countries relations is now timeworn. Trade and
economic relations are gaining greater significance and all countries now prefer to interact with
each other even despite political differences. Add to it, in the backdrop of the Chinese
approach, under its reform process, towards its foreign relations, it would be seen as quite
rational that Beijing and Delhi are increasing their interactions. In fact Xis visit to India will be
seen with keen interest in Pakistan.

The fast-expanding economic cooperation between China and other South Asian countries,
particularly India, may be expected to have a welcome impact on the overall strategic
environment of the region. Chinese engagement in the region provides a balance in an
otherwise imbalanced scenario where even all countries together do not match the Indian size,
which is regarded as one of the factors that has also kept SAARC practically suspended. As the
economic interdependence will increase, and so will Chinese influence in South Asia, it may,
with the passage of timer, pave the way for SAARC to explore its potentials. Similarly, it may be
hoped in Pakistan that situation, in the long-run, would emerge where Beijing may play a role for
lowering of tensions, if not resolution, over long-standing issues not only between China and
India themselves but also between Islamabad and Delhi. Thus, as a whole, the cementing of
commercial ties between China and India need not be seen as a concern in Pakistan.

1/2

{Article} Chinas ties with India and Pakistan

Written by {ga=khalid-rahman}

Importantly both the Chinese and Indian leaders have just started their respective tenures of
government and are expected to continue for five, or even more, years in office. While Chinese
focus on trade and economy is quite well known, Modis India, in the backdrop of his election
campaign, is also seen as giving a major stress to economic progress. Such a scenario puts
Pakistan into an important position. Increased connectivity in the wake of SPEC together with
Silk Road Economic Belt would open huge opportunities in the region for India as well; yet these
can only be exploited in a scenario where India and Pakistan may enter into a better working
relationship. In the same context the two initiatives, SPEC and SREB, are linked with
Afghanistan where, until now, regional countries have not been able to come up with any
combined initiative and Pakistan remains uncomfortable on any move that gives India a greater
role under the US led agenda. In view of the amount of trust deficit that prevails in Pakistan for
any American- led agenda and the amount of trust that exists - both in the government and
among the people - in Pakistan about any Chinese led initiative one may anticipate increased
chances for regional countries cooperation in Afghanistan in the coming years.

Terrorism, WoT, and the discourse related to it, is another important area that might get
positively effected in any improved scenario in China-India-Pakistan three-way relationship. The
rising number of cases of violence in recent days in Xinjiang have raised the significance of
cooperation between China and Pakistan in this regard. Importantly, however, while it is
possible for China and Pakistan to talk this, rather, difficult subject in a cordial and trusted
environment, it has not been an easy case for Pakistan and India to talk about it. While
terrorism cannot be justified in any scenario, Chinese engagement, in and around, may help
lessen the tensions between two South Asian countries and to continue a sustainable and
peaceful dialogue process even on such a challenging issue.

Beyond bilateral and regional, there is an important global dimension as well. Notably in the
overall power balance in the Asian continent, India is perceived both within and outside as a
counter force to China. Its support for the US backed, or under a mutually agreed, agenda in the
Indian Ocean, provocative position and involvement in the affairs of South China Sea and
uncalled-for diplomatic gestures towards Japan are not something that observers in Beijing
would be missing. Thus while economic cooperation may be touching the new heights, the deep
rooted sense of rivalry, if not efforts aimed at outright containment of China, is also there. In
such a situation, it is advisable that while economic cooperation and win-win situation must be
keenly looked forward, the outstanding contentious issues must not also be side tracked; not
only between China and India but also between India and other countries of the region. Any
cooperative effort or even results achieved in the absence of a comprehensive approach cannot
thus be sustainable.

2/2