PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚 技术分析
RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每周技术观点 2010 年 4 月 26 日
MARKET DATELINE

原产品和外汇
原产品有望在本周发动技术反弹…

主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （原

图 1∶轻质原油期货（周线图）
油）

♦ 与其纪录另一根阴烛，美国轻质原油期货期货（US Light
Sweet Crude oil）期货却在上周初触底于 80.53 美元的低
点后，便反转向上形成一根阳烛。

♦ 该阳烛也成功阻止该原产品直线下挫至 78 美元的扶持线。

♦ 虽然周线随机指标（stochastic oscillators）重新发出“卖
出”讯号，但上周的复苏走势却点燃了原油将在近期出现一
轮技术反弹的希望。

♦ 假如买盘动力进一步复苏，原油或将在本周上挑近日的
87.09 美元高点和 87 美元主要阻力线。

♦ 一旦超越 87 美元关口，这将会重振短期展望，并将目标放
在下一道位于 100 美元的阻力。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

图 2∶原棕油期货（周线图）

♦ 在 跟 进 抛 压 动 力 下 ， 原 棕 油 期 货 （ CPO ） 上 周 初 跌 破 了
2,500 令吉关键支持水平。

♦ 虽然原棕油一度下挫至 2,455 令吉低点，但它却在较后稳健

地复苏，并以一根阳烛收 2,540 令吉。结果，这使它成功避
开直接跌穿 2,500 令吉强力扶持线。

♦ 不单这样，动力指标已发出一个“双买”讯号，显示本周将出
现更强的推动力。

♦ 换言之，它必须站稳于 2,500 令吉水平以上，以保持正面。

否则，更多“卖出”讯号的出现将重新引来空方。

♦ 当前阻力水平位于 10 周移动评级线（即 2,583 令吉），至

于接下来的支持点则是 40 周移动平均线（即 2,414 令
吉）。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

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特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶令吉兑美元（周线图） 令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）/ US$（美元）

♦ 令人惊讶的是，令吉兑美元图表上周无法确认“倒锤头线”
（inverted hammer）的形成。相反地，它在上周一再取
得另一根“倒锤头线”。

♦ 该蜡烛形态建议，经过前数周的跌势后，美元兑令吉可望发
动反弹。

♦ 随机指标维持在“极度超卖区”，至于 14 周强弱指 标
（14-week RSI）则无法在上周展开任何反弹。

♦ 从技术观点看来，之前买入令吉的动力已失去动力，至于美
元的购兴也尚未大力开始。

♦ 这导致该货币处于十字口，至于阻力则在 3.29，而较低的
支持点则是 3.07。

图 4∶日元兑美元（周线图） 日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 在早前连续取得两根利淡阴烛后，日元兑美元图表便在上周
以一根“看涨吞没型态”（bullish engulfing）掉头反转。

♦ 有关迅速的反弹带动了该货币重返至 60 周移动平均线（即
（即 93.3）以上，使到美元的短期展望再次转俏。

♦ 尽管如此，基于动力解读好坏参半，因此其力度也可能转为
呆滞。

♦ 从图表看来，该货币应会在近日的 94.69 高点和 95.5 图表

障碍线面对强大阻力。

♦ 一旦丢失 95.5 关口，这意味着日元兑美元将在近期内进一

步回软至 101。

♦ 该货币的当前支撑水平为 60 周移动平均线和下降趋势阻力
线（DRL）（即 90）。

图 5∶欧元兑美元（周线图） 欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 与其往下滑落至 0.73 关口，欧元兑美元却在上周记录了一

根阳烛，显示出欧元再度出现卖压。这也意味着美元获得看
俏。

♦ 随着短期动力指标上周再度往上转高，美元兑欧元有望在本
周进一步转强。

♦ 假如美元有能力超越上周的 0.757 高点，那么它将会向上挑

战 0.77 水平。

♦ 其强稳扶持点位于 0.73 水平，接下来则是 21 周移动平均

线（即 0.719）。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
图 6∶美元指数（周线图）
♦ 在重新跌破 81 阻力水平后，美元指数（DXY）便在上周逆
转劣势，而重新回升至该阻力线以上。

♦ 该指数再度纪录另一根阳烛，显示本周可望出现跟进买气。

♦ 从图表上看来，假如它能够守住 81 以上，那么买盘将会增
加，从而带动它在近期内重新试叩之前的 82.52 高点。

♦ 可是，由于动力解读好坏参半，因此其升势力度应会受到美
元的卖压所冲淡。

♦ 在突破该近期高点后，它将会面对位于 85 的更强阻力，至
于接下来的扶持点则落在 21 周移动平均线（即 79.58）。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
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be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
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manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

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