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Market Welcomes

Agriculture

Infrastructure

UNION BUDGET 2016-17


Fiscal Discipline

Rural Development

Skill Development

A Balanced Approach

For Private Circulation Only

Markets have given a Thumbs-Up to the Union Budget which was extremely comprehensive & covered nearly every
part of the economy such as Infrastructure, agriculture, rural, housing, health insurance, markets. What has supported
this up move is also the fact the lot of perceived negatives such as tinkering with LTCG or super-rich tax or basic excise
hike have not made it into the final budget draft. Crucial take-away is that the government is focused on the quality of
fiscal deficit and stuck to their target of 3.9% (FY16) & 3.5% (FY17).

Budget
ANALYSIS

Issue Theme
Pg. 1-6

1st March-2016 to 31st March-2016

Company Analysis
Pg. 12-16

VALU

B U YE

Value Buy
Pg. 17-19

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From The MDs Desk


The Budget has given necessary trigger to the market
Union Budget is one of the most awaited events for the Indian economy and the honorable Finance Minister, Mr Arun Jaitley
announced the 2nd Union Budget of the Modi Government. Government has been under extreme pressure as it has faced
criticism for failing to provide adequate relief to rural India reeling under the impact of two back-to-back droughts. Thus the
budget presented in the parliament was more rural India focused compared to the urban India.
The budget revolved around 9 themes agriculture, social programs, rural development, education (emphasis on skill
development), infrastructure, financial reforms, policy reforms (emphasis on ease of doing business), fiscal discipline, and
tax reforms.
We believe that, the budget is neither very reformist nor very dull. The finance minister has delivered a balance budget
which has long term solutions of many issues.
As the market was down around 25% from its peak and many scripts were down by more than 50% in last three months, a
trigger was required for buying. An aggressive short covering coupled with delivery buying has happened in last few days. As
far as PSU Banks are concerned, RBI has allowed PSU banks to show their real estate holdings as tier-1 capital subject to
certain conditions. This move sparked the rally in PSU banks as the sector was oversold and closed to their long term
support zone.
Technically, the world market, the commodity market and even Indian markets have formed a medium term bottom. The FIIs
have aggressively sold emerging market equities including in India in last couple of months. Whenever there is turnaround in
world market, India will be first to recover with credible sustainability.
Turnaround in Earnings is still a question for the market. The chances of rate cut and bigger rural sector outlay in budget will
provide the platform for turnaround in corporate earnings.
Globally, the consensus is building in USA that the fed may not raise the rates in March considering the fluctuation in
economic data. Any stimulus by ECB is also providing support to the equity market. Looking at these international situations
and possibility of passing some important bills, Indian market looks positive from medium term perspective.
Technically, any sustainable rise above 7550-7600 may provide the platform to scale 8000. The important supports are
7400-7250.

Kamlesh Jhaveri ( MD )
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.

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Budget
ANALYSIS
Post Budget Analysis: 2016-17
Managing the trio Consumption + Investment + Fiscal Discipline : A Balance Budget

Issue Theme

The Union Budget for 2016-17 lays down the governments long term growth agenda for the country, emphasizing structural
changes and improvements across segments that would transform the nation and its economy.
The Union Budget has signaled the government's intention to remain responsible to fiscal targets, while being mindful of
investment and consumption challenges to the Indian economy. Sticking to the 3.5% fiscal deficit target for FY17 has been a
positive. In the budget, an inclusive growth strategy has been adopted with the farm and rural sector, social sector,
infrastructure sector, employment generation and recapitalization of the banks along with the vulnerable sections (rural
economy ) being priority areas for expenditure for the government.
Rural Consumption Boost

Meaningful Infrastructure

` 35984 Cr. allotted for agriculture sector

` 19000 Cr. for Gram Sadak Yojana

Fiscal Discipline
Fiscal deficit targets 2015-16 (RE)
at 3.9% and 2016-17 (Budget

` 17000 Cr. for irrigation projects

` 9000 crores for Swach Bharat Mission

` 9 Lakh Cr. Agriculture Credit Target

` 97000 Crores for Roads

` 38500 Cr. for MANREGA, highest ever

` Total Outlay on Roads

Estimate) at 3.5%.
Revenue Deficit reduced to 2.5%
in 2015-16 (RE) from 2.8%
Plan expenditure of `5.50 lakh
Cr. / Non-Plan expenditure of `14.28

` 2.87 Lakh corers to be spent on Villages in total

` 2.18 Lk Cr. on Railways

lakh Cr.

We believe that the finance minister has chosen and taken right steps in Union Budget. In the face of threatening global
financial problems, the Budget provides credibility, a steady course for steering the economy and welcome improvements in
tax administration. However, what will go wrong on his agenda and perception is the weak global economy. If external
macro condition will weaken further what it was today, may incorrect his assumption.
Foreign investors withdrawn billions out of India in the current panic markets. They will be reassured by Jaitley's trio
measures. This fiscal ( stick to deficit target of 3.5%) prudence opens the way for interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of
India .

Conclusion
The Budget abstained from imposing any long-term capital gains tax and increasing service tax, which were much
anticipated by the market. In that sense, it's a positive. Moreover, the Budget should be taken positively by consumption,
agriculture, financial and infrastructure oriented sectors. On the flip side, the Budget may be viewed negatively by the
automobile sector. However, a revival in consumption augurs well from a long-term perspective. Though there's no major
surprise, the Budget should be taken positively by both equity and the bond markets. As the event is behind us, the market
should now focus on cues from global markets and incremental economic data and corporate earnings.

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Budget
ANALYSIS
Post Budget Analysis: 2016-17
Post Budget Analysis : Major Trends

Issue Theme

Fiscal Deficit Target


Expected to have fiscal deficit target range
FY17 fiscal deficit target at 3.5% of GDP
FY16 fiscal deficit pegged at 3.9% of GDP
Prudence lies in adhering to fiscal targets

FY17 Revenue and Expenditure Estimates in Fy17


FY17 total expenditure 19.78 trillion rupee / FY17 total spend at 19.78 trillion rupees
FY17 non-plan expenditure 14.3 trillion rupees
FY17 plan expenditure 5.5 trillion rupee
Total resources to states in FY17 at 996 billion rupees
To scrap plan, non-plan expenditure distinction
To do away with plan, non-plan classification of spending
Plan allocation to stress on rural, infra, social sectors
The union Budget with an aim to boost investment in Agriculture, Social Sector, Infrastructure and employment generation
on the one hand and simultaneously sticking to the fiscal consolidation path. This is substantiated by a huge 15.3% jump in
plan outlay and 9% increase in non plan outlay in 2016-17. Besides additional allocation to meet the obligations of 7th pay
commission recommendation and implementation of one rank one pension (OROP) in Defence have also been provided.

Summary of Accounts
` in Cr.

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16 (RE)

FY17(BE)

Revenue Receipts

879,232

1,014,724

1,101,472

1,206,084

1,377,022

Capital Receipts

582,152

563,894

562,201

579,307

601,038

Total Receipts

1,410,372

1,578,618

1,663,673

1,785,391

1,978,060

Revenue Expenditure

1,243,514

1,371,772

1,466,992

1,547,673

1,731,037

166,858

187,675

196,681

237,718

247,023

1,410,372

1,559,447

1,663,673

1,785,391

1,978,060

Revenue Deficit

365,896

357,048

365,519

341,589

354,015

Fiscal Deficit

490,597

502,858

510,725

535,090

533,904

Primary Deficit

177,428

128,604

108,281

92,469

41,234

Capital Expenditure
Total Expenditure

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Budget
ANALYSIS
Post Budget Analysis: 2016-17

Issue Theme

Infrastructure

Outlook: Positive

Increased allocation for roads, railways and urban development 24% increase in budgetary allocation for roads,12%
increase for metro projects, 13% increase for railways
Increased allocation for ports and shipping - 24% increase in budgetary allocation for sugar mela project , 70% increase
in allocation for inland water transport
` 800cr allocated towards the Sagarmala & National Waterways Project
Stocks to watch : Sadbhav Engineering, PNC Infratech ,NCC,MBL infra

Media

Outlook: Positive

Service tax increased from 14.5% to 15.0% owing to levy of 0.5% towards Krishi Kalyan cess
Basic Customs Duty on wood chips and particles used in manufacture of paper and news prints reduced from 5% to nil.
Stocks to watch : Dish TV, Den Networks

Capital Goods

Outlook: Positive

Higher capital outlay towards the defense sector (up 6.9% yoy to ` 69,705cr)
Higher allocation towards Ministry of Urban Development (focus on Metro, Smart Cities, AMRUT; up 34% yoy to
`24,523cr)
Higher allocation of ` 8,500cr towards the Rural Electrification program
12.5% CVD levied on Road Construction Equipments
Stocks to watch : BEL,L&T, Bharat forge,BEML

FMCG

Outlook: Neutral

Increase in excise duty on cigarettes by 10%


Increase in excise duty on mineral water and aerated water containing added sugar
Cumulative allocation of ` 87,765cr for rural development activities and MGNREGA
Stocks to watch : ITC, VST Industries, and Godfrey Phillips.

Metals & Mining

Outlook: Neutral

Custom duty on zinc alloys increased from 5% to 7.5%


Export duty on iron ore lumps (below 58% Fe content) reduced to nil from 30%
Basic custom duty increased on primary aluminium from 5% to 7.5%
Stocks to watch : Hindalco, Nalco, Vedanta

Cement

Outlook: Positive

Reduction in basic custom duty for coal, lignite, etc. increase in clean environment cess on inputs such as coal, lignute on
the cement input costs
100% deduction of profits from development of housing projects & exemption of service tax on development of
affordable housing
Stocks to watch : UltraTech, Prism Cement

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Budget
ANALYSIS
Post Budget Analysis: 2016-17
Pharmaceuticals

Outlook: Negative

Weighted deductions for R&D proposed to be revised to 150% from April 1, 2017 and 100% from April 1, 2020.
Tax rate of 10% (as against 35%) on income from worldwide exploitation of patents developed and registered in India.
3,000 stores under Prime Ministers Jan Aushadhi Yojana will be opened during 2016-17.
Stocks to watch : Sun Pharma, Dishman Pharma, Lupin, and Cadila Healthcare

Real Estate

Outlook: Positive

100% deduction for profits to an undertaking in housing project for flats upto 30 sq. metres in four metro cities and 60 sq.
metres in other cities, approved during June 2016 to March 2019 and completed in three years
Deduction for additional interest of Rs.50,000 per annum for loans up to Rs.35 lakh sanctioned in 2016-17 for first time
home buyers, where house cost does not exceed Rs.50 lakh
Stocks to watch : DLF, Prestige Estates

Banking & Financial Services

Outlook: Neutral

Capital infusion of Rs. 25000 Cr. in PSU banks in 2016-17.


Allocation of Rs. 250 bn towards recapitalization of PSBs.
Debt recovery tribunals will be strengthened.
Government owned general insurance companies to be listed
Foreign investments will be allowed in the insurance and pension sectors in automatic route up to 49%

Aviation

Outlook: Negative

Service tax on services provided by assessing bo diesem panelled centrally reduced from 14.0% to nil
Tools and tool kits for maintenance, repair, and overhauling of aircraft have been exempted from excise duty
Stocks to watch : Interglobe Aviation, Spice Jet and Jet Airways

Automobile

Outlook: Positive

Introduction of infrastructure cess:


1% for small Petrol/LPG/CNG cars;
2.5% for small diesel cars;
4% for mid-size, large cars and SUVs
1% luxury tax on cars costing Rs. 10 lakh or more
Central Government to work in coordination with States towards abolition of permit regime thereby resulting into
liberalization of passenger road transport segment
Stocks to watch : Ashok Leyland, Eicher motors, Bajaj Auto and Tata motors

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Issue Theme

Tax rebate of 10% on earnings from global patent filings.

Budget
ANALYSIS
Post Budget Analysis: 2016-17

Issue Theme

Oil & Gas

Outlook: Negative

The exemptions from customs duties on specified goods imported for petroleum exploration
Oil Industries Development cess reduced from Rs.4,500 per tonne to 20% ad valorem
Withdrawal of deduction u/s 80-IB of Income-tax Act for production of mineral oil and natural gas
Stocks to watch : ONGC, Cairn India

Education

Outlook: Positive

Allocation of ` 1,804cr for skill development


Service tax on services provided by assessing bodies empanelled centrally reduced from 14.0% to nil
Stocks to watch : MT Educare and NIIT

Logistics

Outlook: Positive

Basic custom duty on refrigerated containers reduced from 10% to 5% and excise duty on the same reduced from 12.5%
to 6%.
Stocks to watch : Snowman Logistics, Gati and Navkar Corp

Chemicals

Outlook: Positive

Basic custom duty on electrolysers, membranes and their parts required by caustic soda/potash units (using membrane
cell technology) reduced from 2.5% to nil.
Stocks to watch : Tata Chemicals

Information Technology

Outlook: Negative

An additional tax at the rate of 10% of gross amount of dividend will be payable by the recipients receiving dividend in
excess of `10 lakh per annum
Most IT companies are cash rich and are hence prospective candidates for high dividend payouts. Investors in these
companies subject to receipt of dividend in excess of the said amount will be impacted.
Stocks to watch : Budget is Negative for the sector

Telecom

Outlook: Negative

The government expects revenue receipts of `98,995cr in FY2017 from the telecom sector by way of spectrum receipts
Telecom companies could be compelled to bid aggressively which could lead to further deterioration in their financial
positions
Stocks to watch : The Budget is Negative for the Telecom sector.

Power

Outlook: Negative

Clean Environment Cess increased from `200/ton to ` 400/ton


Stocks to watch : Negative for power producers such as NTPC, JSW Energy etc.
Note : Our Stocks To Watch section is not our stocks recommendation. We have mention those stocks which are likely to get benefits /
disadvantages from Govt.s moves in the budget in broader sense. Kindly, contact Research Dept. for stock recommendations.

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Railway
BUDGET
Railway Budget Update
Passenger Centric and Optimistic but implementation is Key

The railways have continued to focus on capacity expansion and improving the services. The plan outlay has been hiked by
21% to `1.21 lakh Cr. for FY2017. The railways has focused on improving customer services, while also laid down the plan
for reorganizing, restructuring and rejuvenation of the Indian Railways.
Performance
The railways have exhibited sharp slippages from FY2016 targets. The freight loading target is revised down to 1107 million
tonnes for FY2016 from budgeted level of 1186 million tonnes. The estimate for gross traffic receipts is scaled down sharply
to ` 1.68 lakh Cr. from 1.84 lakh Cr.
Meanwhile, the operating ratio is showing improvement from 91.3% in FY2015 to 90% in FY2016, but it has overshoot the
budgeted level of 88.5%.
Budget Estimates 2016-17
1) Gross Traffic Receipts estimated to rise 10.1% to ` 1,84,820 Cr. 2) Passenger earnings growth has been pegged at 12.4
% to ` 51,012 Cr. 3) The freight traffic is pegged at incremental traffic of 50 million tonnes. Goods earnings is accordingly
proposed at ` 1,17,933 Cr. 4) Railways are preparing a Plan size of `1,21,000 Cr. in 2016-17. 5) Targets Operating Ratio
(OR) - 92%, restrict growth of Ordinary Working Expenses by 11.6% after building in immediate impact of 7th PC
Investments and Resources
As per investments proposed under 5-year plans (FY2015-19), Railways envisage capex of ` 8.5 lakh cr, translating to
yearly run-rate of `1.7 lakh Cr. Capital outlay budgeted for FY2017 stands at ` 1.17 lakh cr, much lower than the `1.7 lakh
cr/year target set under the 5-year plan.
However, if we compare FY2017 budgeted numbers, to that of revised FY2016 numbers, than capex outlay has increased
by 42.3% (vs 40% increase in FY2016 revised budgeted numbers in comparison to FY2015 actual).

Some Stocks from Rail budget


Key Initiatives

Key Initiatives

Company Name

Company Name

50% more electrification

KEC International, Kalpataru


Power Transmisson, Siemens

Wifi Services

D-Link, Smart Link

No hike in freight charges

Coal India, Ultratech Cement

Elevated Rail Corridors

L&T, HCC, NCC, Gammon


Infra, Simplex Infrastructure

Locomotive Factories for


` 40,000 Cr.

BHEL, BEML

Cold Storages on rail land

Snowman Logistics

CCTV for Surveillance

ZICOM

Multi model logistic park

Gateway Distriparks
Navkar Corp

Three new freight corridors

COCOR and Gateway

17000 bio toilets in trains

Sahyadri Industries,
Stone India

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Railway Budget Update

Overview
Indian Railway has presented a Railway Budget 2016-17 maintaining status quo on passenger fare rates and freight rates.

Ceramic Sector
Global Ceramic Tiles Industry
Research Inc. Demand for ceramic tiles has been driven by the growing construction and infrastructure industry, mainly in
the Asian economies of china, India and Indonesia. However, volatility in raw material prices and tightening of regulatory
guidelines to address growing environmental concerns have increased the production costs for ceramic tiles
manufacturers.
With the introduction of modern technology in designing and manufacturing, the market new verticals have emerged such
as 3D tiles, Germ-free tiles and designer tiles. Floor tiles are expected to be the fastest growing segment of the ceramic tiles
market growing at an estimated CAGR of 9.4% over the next five years. The wall tiles segment is expected to lose its pole
position to floor tiles by 2018. Government of India and china have increased spending on infrastructure improvement,
which is expected to promote the demand for residential and commercial structures and boost ceramic tiles market in the
coming years.

Indian ceramic Industry


India remains one of the fastest growing ceramic tiles market in the world. Indias share in the global ceramic tiles production
is continuously increasing and has reached 6.3% in 2013 from 5.7% in 2009.
India has not grown much in terms of exports of ceramic tiles and currently consists of less than 0.5% of the global market.
As per ICCTAS, in the year 2014 India has exported ceramic tiles of around USD 441 million. India exports ceramics to
markets across Europe, Asia, US and Africa and the key export markets are UAE, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia.
A significant portion of the tiles manufacturers sales is to the institutional segment comprising builders and dealers. while
the rest is direct sales to the end consumers also called the replacement market. The replacement market constitutes 15%20% of the total tiles market In India compared with around 75% in western countries.
The organized segment makes up approximately 50% of the sector and the top eight manufacturers constitute over 75% of
the organized market.
7050
6050
5050

6000

170
150
130

Top 10 Countries by production of


Ceramic Tiles (Million Square Meters)

110

4050

90

3050

70

2050

50

1050

903 825

425 420 410 382 360 315 230

160

150

Ceramic Tiles importing Nations


( Million Square Meters)

121
96

84

83 80

68

65

53

30

50

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Sector Update

Global ceramic tiles market is expected to reach USD 125.32 billion by 2020, according to a new study by Grand View

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Ceramic Sector
Morbi development.structural shift towards organized players
Morbi (Gujarat) is a hub of ceramic tile manufacturers in India with 500 manufacturing units. The region produces 65-70% of
key raw materials like various types of clay, red and black soil, minerals (including calcite and wollastonite) with frits and
glazes readily available either locally or from neighboring Rajasthan. It is also cost effective since Gujarat State Petroleum
Corporation (GSPC) has installed industrial gasoline in the region.
Also, since beginning of FY14, Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) restricted cargo handling at the Navlakhi port
(which handles 60% of coal for the ceramic industry), leading to a severe shortage of coal. Moreover, post the closure, Morbi
players have to bring coal from Kandla and Mundra ports where transportation cost is higher by 50%. Consequently,
unorganized players had to shift back to gas fired furnaces and the cost parity enjoyed by unorganized players went away.
Hence, these developments were structurally positive for organized players and provided a level playing field to them.

Growth drivers
Urbanization rate
Indias urban population has grown 2.47% annually over the last decade, making it the most rapidly urbanizing country.
Indias urban population is expected to increase from 32% today to 40% by 2020, strengthening the prospect s for tile
manufacturers.
Country
Per capita consumption
(square meter)

Brazil

China

Europe

India

Indonesia

Iran

Russia

Vietnam

4.0

3.1

5.5

0.5

1.0

4.8

1.1

3.7

Urbanisation Rate (%)

45.0

40.0

40.0
35.0
30.0
23.3

25.0
20.0

18.0

31.2

32.0

2011

2011

27.8

25.7

19.9

15.0
10.0
5.0
1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2020E

By 2030, India is likely to emerge as the worlds largest middle class consumer market with aggregate consumer spends of
nearly US$13 trillion. Nuclear families are the overwhelming norm in India with 70% of households comprising just one
married couple, driving the need for quality housing.

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Sector Update

the total ceramic products in the country. One of the key reasons behind Morbi being the ceramic city is easy availability of

Ceramic Sector

Sector Update

Low per capita consumption


India currently has one of the lowest per capita consumption of 0.5 sqm as against the world average of 1.4 sqm Hence,
there is a great scope of growth for the ceramic industry in India.

Government initiatives
The new government has initiated a number of ambitious projects such as 100 smart cities, housing for all by 2022 and
swachh Bharat Abhyaan. several policy initiatives taken by the government to help the real estate and housing sector
includes the amendment of the FDI policy , setting up of real estate investment trusts, increase in deduction limit on housing
loan, relaxed norms for issuing term bonds by banks for financing affordable housing etc. would act as a big push in demand
for the ceramics industry in India over the coming years.

Change in demographics
The youth population in India is fast growing and it is estimated that by 2020 India will be the worlds youngest country. This
would lead to a shift in preference from low cost products from unorganized players to high end branded ceramic products.
this would lead to better growth prospects for the organized ceramic industry.

Rapid growth
India is witnessing a growing middle class population. This budding middle class population would act as a key growth driver
for the ceramic industry in India. 89 million consuming class households and 45 million first time aspirer households in India
will be a major thrust for the housing sector in the next decade.

Increase in disposable income


Rapid industrialization and associated growth in income will propel the income level of India to those currently enjoyed by
global middle income countries, will boost the industry growth. With rising disposable income in India the demand for
replacement market for ceramic tiles is expected to further increase.
The per capita disposable income has grown at 13% CAGR in the last decade to ` 74920 in 2013-14. India has a young
population with an average age of 24 years, leading to higher disposable incomes in the hands of those with aspirations for a
better lifestyle and stylish interiors.

Falling interest rates


With the falling interest rates and falling inflation, RBI may further ease the repo rate. This would lead to higher demand for
the real estate sector and for the ceramic tiles industry.

Swachh Bharat mission likely to boost the demand of ceramic industry


The swachh Bharat campaign launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have a positive impact on the Indian
ceramic industry as the initiative is likely to generate demand for tiles and sanitary ware. The ceramic sector in India saw a
dip in growth last fiscal due to overall economic scenario and lesser than expected investment in construction sector. the
new government at the Centre is focusing on infrastructure sector, which will boost construction and eventually help
ceramic sector.

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Ceramic Sector
Opportunities in the ceramic tiles market in India
Buyers are increasingly looking beyond the functionality of ease, hygiene and maintenance

and competing for

Use of nano technology helps in increasing the shelf lives and strength of tiles by making them resistant to dirt and
bacteria. These tiles are gaining popularity in areas where hygiene is important, such as hospitals, labs and food
processing units, among others.
Usage of eco-friendly tiles is expected to increase as consumers become more environment-conscious. Recycled ecofriendly tiles are usually made from natural and renewable substances.
Construction of new houses driven by rising income levels have increased tile usage in the residential construction and
the commercial real estate verticals. Large companies are increasingly focusing on the retail front, which will enable
them to earn higher margins.
Verified tiles, comprising nearly 50% of the ceramic tiles market, have witnessed a robust growth in the last five years due
to their high durability and easy maintenance.

Preferred stocks
Asian Granito India Ltd. (AGL)
AGL has emerged as one of Indias largest groups, with a global footprint across 50 countries. Its capacity has grown 40 fold
in a span of just 14 years, it is Indias fastest growing Ceramic Tile, Vitrified Tile , Marble and Quartz Company and among the
worlds 50 most profitable Ceramic tile Companies.
AGL has an extensive marketing and distribution network which comprises of more than 4000 Dealers and Sub-Dealers and
more than 75 Exclusive Dealer Showrooms covering each and every state of the country, this helps the company to promote
its range of products to the consumers.
Kajaria ceramics Ltd.
Kajaria Ceramics is the largest manufacturer of ceramic/vitrified tiles in India. It has an annual aggregate capacity of 68.60
mn. sq. meters, distributed across nine plants - Sikandrabad in Uttar Pradesh, Gailpur & Malootana in Rajasthan, five plants
in Gujarat and one at Vijayawada in Andhra Pradesh.
Kajaria's the manufacturing units are equipped with cutting edge modern technology. Intense automation, robotic car
application and a zero chance for human error are few reasons for Kajaria to be the number one in the industry.
Company
Name

Kajaria
Ceramics
Asian
Granito

FV (`)

CMP* (`)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

D/E Ratio
(x)

ROCE (%)

RONW (%)

PBIDTM
(%)

CFO (` in Cr.)

2.00

898.20

33.23

9.63

0.38

33.91

29.11

14.73

180.27

10.00

112.55

17.13

0.88

0.71

8.45

4.71

6.52

104.21

( Source: Capitaline )

CMP* as on 29/02/2016

10

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Sector Update

aesthetically appealing tiles in order to reflect their individualistic lifestyles.

Get
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90%

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For Limited Period Only*

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Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.


Company Basics

CMP : ` 133

TGT : ` 181

ROI : 36%

Investment Rationale
Company Overview
Jamna Auto Industries Limited is the largest manufacturer of Tapered Leaf and
Parabolic Springs for Commercial Vehicles (CVs) in India. It has been a trusted and
preferred supplier of Leaf and Parabolic Springs to all major CV manufacturers.
JAI is the only Indian company to provide a complete range of automotive suspension

Financial Basics
5.00
7.41
17.48
5.17
1.3666
11.63%

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)
P/E (x) (TTM)
P/BV (x) (TTM)
BETA
RONW (%)

solution for commercial vehicles. The company has attained leadership in conventional
spring suspension products in home market and now the company is developing new
technology in suspension system and target new market segments (including the
aftermarket and exports).
(Suspension : Suspension is the system that connects a vehicle to its wheels and
allows relative motion between the two.)

Product Portfolio
JAI has tied up with Ridewell Corporation of USA to manufacture Air Suspension, Bogie
Suspension and Lift Axles in India. Ridewell has more than 42 patents for various
Share Holding Pattern
Holder's Name

% Holding

suspension products and is considered a leader in this field.

Foreign

0.52

Multi-Leaf Springs
JAI is the market leader in Multi-leaf Springs with a domestic OEM volume share of

Institutions

2.89

64%. Company is manufacturing a comprehensive range of Multi-leaf Springs ranging

Promoters

46.45

from 3Kg to 200 Kg.

Govt. Holding

0.00

Public & Others

50.14

Parabolic Sprigs
JAI was among the first to introduce Parabolic Springs in India and currently market

Non Promoter
Corp. Hold.

0.00

leader in the market. Parabolic technology improves the ride comfort, gives much better
vehicle life and costs less.

Valuations
JAMNA AUTO is trading at `133. We
recommend Buy with target price
of `181,valuing stocks 20xFY18E
EPS of `9.07.The stock currently
trades at 17.60x of FY16E, 16.12x of
FY17E and 14.66x of FY18E.

Air Suspension
JAI launched its air suspension in FY13 and has begun supplying to leading players like
SML Isuzu.
Lift Axle
JAI introduced Lift Axles in FY13 and is already supplying this product to Ashok Leyland.

Investment Horizon : 12 to 15 Months

12

www.jhaveritrade.com

Company Analysis

BSE ID
520051
NSE Symbol
JAMNAAUTO
Group
B
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
39.74
MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)
1030.03

Buy

Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.

Company Analysis

Investment rational
Commercial Vehicles move towards recovery in FY15
Indian CV sales, including exports sales, reduced its decline to 1.3% in FY15, after a steep fall of -18.7% in FY14, with
signs of recovery in the domestic CV segment and strong growth in CV exports to reach 700,743 units as per SIAM.
Domestic CV sales narrowed down its de-growth to 2.8% in the year after falling down 20.2% in FY14. Amongst CV subsegments Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV) showed robust growth while the Light Commercial Vehicle
(LCV) continued to experience slowdown. CV exports rebounded back to positive growth territory reporting 11.3% growth
in FY15. The CV exports have grown at 5-year CAGR of 13.8% generating a healthy 12.2% share of CV production in
FY15. Consistent growth in the auto component exports is an indication of growing credibility of India made components.
Export CV Sales
1,000,000

92,258

800,000
600,000

Domestic CV Sales

YoY Growth
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%

80,027

74,043

77,050

45,009

85,782

10.00%
0.00%

400,000
200,000

582,721

684,905

809,499

793,211

632,851

614,961

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

-10.00%
-20.00%
-30.00%

( Source: Company )

M&HCV-fastest growing amongst all automotive segments


The Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV) sub segment, including export sales, bounced back to robust growth
of 17.4% YoY in FY15 after two years of decline. This was presence of MNC players, the industry will place increased
importance on technologically advanced and value added products. Also, the aftermarket will be an important growth and
profitability driver for the industry with customers preference for quality branded products.

India is becoming global manufacturing hub continues


India is fast becoming a global manufacturing hub for leading OEMs across the world. Major global CV giants such as
Daimler, Man Trucks, Navistar, Volvo, and Hino have entered into Indian market attracted by the low CV penetration and
strong growth potential. Global CV majors like Daimler Motors and Scania Motors have already committed in India. These
OEMs have a strong focus towards localization initiatives that bodes well for the auto component sector.
Year

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

CV Production

760,735.00

923,136.00

832,649.00

699,035.00

697,083.00

YoY Growth (%)

34%

22.10%

-10.40%

-16.00%

-0.30%

( Source: Company )

13

www.jhaveritrade.com

Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.


JAL is a leader in spring manufacturer in India
JAI is one of the world's leading players in automobile suspension solutions and

amongst the world's top three

company is Supplying to Global and Domestic Commercial Vehicle Original Equipment Manufacturers with a successful
track record of consistently delivering best in class quality.

Highest market Share among Indian spring manufacturer


Company

Jamna Auto

Toyo

Friends Auto

Soni

Agya Auto

Vikrant

Others

Market Share

66%

14%

7%

3%

3%

3%

4%

( Source: Company )

Strong distribution network and marquee clients portfolios


Jamna has built up a strong dealer network, through its subsidiary - Jai Suspension Systems LLP (JSS LLP), all over the
country to support growing domestic After Market demand. The company sells springs under the "JAI" brand in the After
Market and its products command premium.
The company is consistently improving aftermarket network to penetrate new markets. JAI has a significant network with
tie-ups with more than 1,310 primary distributors to supply products to more than 5,500 dealers. During the year, revenue
from new markets also increased.

Domestic Customers

International Customers

AMW

Renault Nissan

GM

Ashok Leyland

SML ISUZU

ISUZU

Bharat Benz

Tata Motors

UD Trucks

Force

VOLVO

Kamat Benz

VL Commercial Vehicles

( Source: Company )
Project Lakshya : Medium term strategy that focuses on value creation
The Company aims to achieve a de-risked business model, higher returns and consistent shareholder payouts as a part of
the Lakshya mission.
During the year, To achive this goal, JALs export sales grew to reach `10.80 Cr. Realizing the potential in the exports market,
company is investing in the capacity at Hosur near Banglore, primarily to cater to demand for new generation products and
exports. The facility with a capacity of 30,000 MTPA is expected to be operational by Q1 FY17.
Product De-risking

Diversifying Markets

Operational Goals 33% Revenue from New Products 33% Revenue from New Market
Financial Goals

33% ROCE

33% Divided Payout

Maximizing Efficiency
33% Break Even Point
Net Block to be funded by net worth

( Source: Company )

14

www.jhaveritrade.com

Company Analysis

manufacturers of Multileaf springs with a growing presence in Parabolic Springs, Lift Axles and Air Suspensions. The

Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.

Company Analysis

Strategically located Plant Close to customer and exports hubs


Ropar
SML - ISUZU
Pant Nagar
TATA Motors | Ashok Leyland

Alwar
Ashok Leyland
Indore
VECV | Force Motors
MTI
Bhuj
AMW

Lucknow
TATA Motors

JAI - Pantnagar
JAI - Yamuna Nagar
JAI - Gwalior
JAI - Bhuj

Pune
TATA Motors

JAI - Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
TATA Motors

JAI - Pune

Bangalore
Volve

Chennai
Ashok Leyland

Ashok Leyland
Kamaz Vectra
Leyland Nissan
Scania

JAI - Hosur

Bharat Benz ( Diamler )

JAI - Chennai

Renault Nissan
Ford India
ISUZU

OEM Plants
JAI Existing Plants

All major truck manufacturer uses JAIs products


Domestic Customers

Exports Customers

( Source: Company & JSL Research )

15

www.jhaveritrade.com

Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.


Key Financials
Equity Paid Up
Networth
Capital Employed
Total Debt
Gross Block (Excl. Reval. Res.)
Net Working Capital ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Assets ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Liabilities and Provisions ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Total Assets/Liabilities (excl Reval & W.off)
Gross Sales
Net Sales
Other Income
Value Of Output
Cost of Production
Selling Cost
PBIDT
PBDT
PBIT
PBT
PAT after Minority Interest & P/L Associate Company

in Cr )

FY 12
39.4
152.6
341.23
182.74
363.96
19.27
316.32
297.05
638.28
1204.27
1119.65
1.97
1128.48
980.51
39.37
102.19
83.37
70.04
51.22
42.19

FY 13
39.5
171
344.1
166.19
463.25
16.25
277.81
261.55
605.66
1055.76
980.15
2.34
991.18
858.19
36.39
87.85
61.11
58.9
32.16
27.73

FY 14
39.5
179.86
311.14
125.28
467.06
16.96
250.41
233.45
544.59
893.83
833.3
22.27
817.19
775.35
31.27
66.69
42.62
40.78
16.71
13.84

FY 15
39.62
196.42
266.03
64.28
478.6
-23.61
208.28
231.9
497.93
1185.22
1095.01
2.01
1105
993.64
34.71
96.5
78.48
65.4
47.38
29.38

FY 12
1.10
0.40
0.80
3.51
9.91
9.27
3.85
3.72
8.49
16.80
15.39

FY 13
1.06
0.27
0.73
2.55
7.88
8.96
3.08
2.20
8.32
13.66
10.90

FY 14
0.82
0.25
0.76
1.92
7.69
8.31
2.73
1.03
5.68
6.15
0.47

FY 15
0.50
0.24
0.81
2.51
11.30
14.39
4.11
3.63
8.14
18.54
11.60

Ratio Analysis
Consolidated Key Financials
Debt-Equity Ratio (x)
Current Ratio (x)
Fixed Assets Ratio (x)
Inventory Ratio (x)
Debtors Ratio (x)
Total Asset Turnover Ratio (x)
Interest Cover Ratio (x)
PBIDTM (%)
APATM (%)
ROCE (%)
RONW (%)

16

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Company Analysis

Consolidated Key Financials

(`

VALU
E

BUY

Open Fundamental Calls

Company

Fundamental Stocks
Current
Reco

52 Week

Absolute Return (%)

CMP*( ` )
High (`)

Low (`)

3M

6M

12M

Face
Value
(`)

Market
P/BV
Cap
(` in Cr) (x)

P/E
(x)

Dividend Yield
%

Auto Ancillaries
Jamna Auto Inds

Buy

134

156

88

22% 23% 22%

1016

5.17

17.25

0.86

Suprajit Engg.

Hold

137

152

111

-4%

1%

1618

6.72

21.17

0.70

-7%

Automobile
Ashok Leyland

Hold

92

100

64

-1%

-3%

35%

25385

7.28

28.59

0.50

M&M

Hold

1237

1442

1091

-4%

-6%

-1%

75071

2.90

26.21

0.99

Maruti Suzuki

Hold

3521

4790

3386

-24% -23% -1%

105347

4.33

33.06

0.72

Banks
ICICI Bank

Buy

198

362

189

-26% -33% -40%

111607

1.32

9.50

2.60

Bank of Baroda

Hold

139

216

109

-17% -30% -24%

30634

0.70

8.13

2.32

City Union Bank

Hold

84

106

78

-4% -13% -15%

4935

1.83

11.65

1.33

DCB Bank

Hold

74

151

68

-11% -46% -34%

10

2051

1.33

10.91

0.00

17451

9.60

50.07

1.07

Capital Goods
6%

Havells India

Hold

281

322

235

TD Power Sys.

Buy

229

414

225

-19% -18% -40%

10

749

1.52

38.98

1.17

Inox Wind

Buy

237

494

217

-36% -39% NA!

10

5090

3.66

14.11

0.00

Carborundum Uni.

Buy

165

200

150

-5%

-3% -11%

3107

2.86

23.44

0.76

Thermax

Hold

758

1318

716

-14% -26% -39%

8999

4.19

45.52

0.93

-30% -31% -38%

10

3323

2.06

26.95

0.84

-2%

-3%

10

77288

4.06

34.80

0.32

2%

4%

Cement
J K Cements

Hold

455

745

425

UltraTech Cem.

Hold

2923

3398

2531

6%

Finance
Dewan Hsg. Fin.

Buy

150

285

140

-30% -38% -39%

10

4411

0.95

6.28

1.83

Repco Home Fin

Hold

596

785

555

-13% -21% -12%

10

3629

4.47

25.44

0.26

PTC India Fin

Buy

32

67

30

-22% -29% -46%

10

1813

1.26

5.06

3.10

Infrastructure
Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1150

1894

1016

-15% -34% -31%

105271

2.57

23.80

1.43

Adani Ports

Buy

206

375

169

-24% -44% -37%

42289

3.93

16.18

0.54

Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

184

221

143

0%

3378

1.82

32.64

0.72

7%

17

23%

www.jhaveritrade.com

VALU
E

BUY

Fundamental Stocks
Company

Current
Reco

52 Week

Absolute Return (%)

CMP*( ` )
Low (`)

3M

6M

12M

Market
P/BV
Cap
(` in Cr) (x)

P/E
(x)

Dividend Yield
%

Logistics
Gateway Distr.

Hold

209

455

206

-38% -38% -52%

10

2262

2.45

17.15

3.36

Allcargo Logistics

Hold

153

218

128

-22% -2%

-8%

3712

1.95

14.02

0.68

VRL Logistics

Buy

315

479

261

-24% -15% NA

10

2847

6.02

26.78

1.20

Torrent Pharma.

Buy

1350

1718

1030

-12% -18% 21%

22143

8.89

13.94

0.86

Sun Pharma. Inds.

Hold

882

1201

704

19% -6%

-3%

209650

8.18

47.63

0.34

Granules India

Buy

110

164

75

-27% -15% 38%

2258

4.84

20.97

0.45

Ahluwalia Contr.

Buy

230

303

188

-16% -10% -1%

1519

4.51

23.71

0.00

J Kumar Infra

Hold

297

449

253

-20% -23% 14%

2136

1.78

21.27

0.60

Pharmaceuticals

Realty

Textiles
Garware-Wall Rop

Buy

309

437

166

-13% -5% 53%

10

660

2.13

15.74

0.99

SRF

Buy

1092

1499

875

-14% -14% 18%

10

6195

2.73

16.54

0.93

AYM Syntex

Buy

97

163

87

-15% -29% NA

10

381

2.60

8.18

0.10

Ambika Cotton

Buy

778

1149

518

-11% -8% 47%

10

450

1.49

9.35

1.83

Nitin Spinners

Buy

57

108

26

-4% -25% 88%

10

244

1.46

5.41

1.88

CARE

Hold

912

1806

900

-31% -26% -44%

10

2673

6.96

35.63

8.57

Century Ply.

Buy

148

262

136

-17% -16% -30%

3267

8.43

23.45

1.36

MT Educare

Buy

148

200

96

12%

2%

29%

10

565

4.49

17.40

1.87

Interglobe Aviat

Buy

820

1395

698

-28% NA

NA

10

29191

17.18 14.69

0.00

Radico Khaitan

Hold

102

131

79

-16% 9%

18%

1330

1.62

17.26

0.80

Bharat Forge

Buy

787

1363

720

-9% -36% -39%

17858

5.19

25.67

0.98

Omkar Spl.Chem.

Hold

151

250

129

-22% -23% -7%

10

306

1.81

9.56

1.01

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

230

385

206

-27% -31% -26%

3928

2.56

28.03

0.31

Eveready Inds.

Hold

222

375

192

-21% -31% 10%

1585

2.54

32.64

0.00

Inox Leisure

Buy

206

276

145

-8% -14% 16%

10

1909

2.69

31.36

0.00

Prabhat Dairy

Buy

94

169

90

-32% NA

NA

10

887

1.38

37.99

0.05

Infinite Comp

Hold

201

323

122

-7%

6%

7%

10

763

0.97

7.55

0.00

Liberty Shoes

Buy

147

310

125

-27% -36% -51%

10

239

1.64

14.09

1.07

T.V. Today Netw.

Hold

314

350

165

17% 40% 26%

1875

4.17

23.65

0.48

Hitech Plast

Hold

157

221

81

39% 48% 31%

10

221

1.90

20.76

0.62

Torrent Power

Buy

223

247

137

19% 28% 30%

10

10754

1.64

11.01

0.66

HPCL

Hold

677

991

556

-15% -21% 12%

10

21794

1.60

16.68

3.81

Miscellaneous

CMP* as on 22/02/2016

18

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Open Fundamental Calls

High (`)

Face
Value
(`)

JSL Top Mutual Fund Picks

Mutual Fund Picks

Scheme Name

Axis Focused 25 Fund

NAV*
NAV*
1 Year
Launch
(Div)
(growth)
(%)
Date
Top Equity Diversified Funds

3 Year
(%)

5 Year
(%)

Since Inc

13.58

15.05

-16.67

8.97

NA

11.82

127.79

515.91

-8.20

27.86

22.12

17.87

8.69

8.69

-13.45

NA

NA

-12.40

10-Jun-10

11.09

14.78

-15.86

12.08

8.64

7.07

Franklin India Prima Plus

29-Sep-94

32.41

389.45

-11.10

16.63

13.79

18.64

Birla sun life 95 fund

10-Feb-95

121.62

504.22

-10.82

13.80

11.37

20.47

DSP BR balanced fund

27-May-99

20.84

96.99

-9.11

11.98

9.34

14.52

Franklin India balance fund

10-Dec-99

29-Jun-12

BSL MNC Fund

27-Dec-99

BSL Manufacturing Equity Fund

3-Feb-15

DSP BR Focus 25 Fund

Top Balanced Funds

19.77

82.95

-7.61

15.16

12.33

13.93

ICICI Prudential Balance Advantage fund 30-Dec-06

13.92

23.57

-7.09

11.59

12.27

9.81

L&T India Prudence fund

15.75

17.81

-7.25

16.89

12.91

12.1

7-Feb-11

Mid Cap Funds


DSP BR Micro Cap Fund

14-Jun-07

21.92

36.10

-4.32

31.71

21.23

15.89

Franklin India Smaller Co Fund

13-Jan-06

20.23

34.56

-8.62

28.07

21.49

13.03

ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund

16-Aug-04

27.63

97.50

-15.01

20.80

16.70

21.83

Kotak Emerging Equity Fund

30-Mar-07

17.51

22.57

-11.29

20.90

17.14

9.56

19.22

27.04

-7.21

27.21

22.41

19.30

Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund

9-Jul-10

Top Saving Funds


BSL Tax Relief'96 Fund

10-Mar-08

119.10

19.00

-12.48

18.77

12.80

8.55

Religare Invesco Tax plan

29-Dec-06

15.31

30.17

-16.01

16.08

13.21

12.81

-11.97

23.42

18.82

17.50

Axis long term equity fund

29-Dec-09

17.66

27.01

IDFC tax advantage

26-Dec-08

13.11

32.59

-16.63

14.34

12.03

17.91

Franklin India Taxshield

10-Apr-99

35.26

372.06

-11.66

16.28

13.8

23.88

Conservative Funds
Franklin India Dynamic PE Ratio Fund

31-Oct-03

34.49

58.70

-4.35

8.82

8.51

15.44

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan

31-Oct-02

17.85

158.83

-17.95

11.46

9.25

23.06

Principal Smart Equity Fund

16-Dec-10

14.01

15.48

-7.25

11.46

10.11

8.77

-12.89

11.14

9.82

7.89

-6.09

NA

NA

1.13

Religare Invesco Dynamic Equity Fund

04-Oct-07

15.94

18.93

IDFC Dynamic Equity Fund

10-Oct-14

9.97

10.16

MIP Funds
HDFC Monthly Income Plan LTP

NA

33.33

-3.85

8.14

8.28

10.39

28-Sep-00

NA

42.92

-0.57

9.68

9.52

9.91

IDFC Monthly Income Plan

25-Feb-10

NA

16.45

-0.10

8.21

9.48

8.64

Reliance Monthly Income Plan

12-Jan-04

NA

32.81

-1.81

9.00

9.23

10.29

ICICI Pru MIP-25

30-Mar-04

NA

29.88

-1.43

9.58

9.49

9.62

FT India MIP

26-Dec-03

NAV* as on 25/02/2016

19

www.jhaveritrade.com

Selected Macro Economic Indicators


Total Foreign Exchange Reserves (US $ Billion)
352.09

352.00

352.50
351.1

352.04

351.48

351.83

350.36

350.00

350.36
349.15

348.93

348.00

347.20

347.56

15-Jan-16

22-Jan-16

346.78

346.00
344.00
342.00

4-Dec-15

11-Dec-15

18-Dec-15

25-Dec-15

1-Jan-16

8-Jan-16

29-Jan-16

5-Feb-16

12-Feb-16 19-Feb-16

26-Feb-16

Import & Export (in US $ Million)


45000
35704

40000
32152

35000

35794
35704

32690

35794

33068

32209

30937

28220

33961
29796

28714

30000

21075

22297

20014

21408

21720

21272

23143

21274

22263

21998

15000

23884

23776

20000

21826

25000

10000
Jan-15 Feb-14 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

12

Index of Industrial Production (%)

9.81

10
8

6.26
4.81

6
4
2

4.24

2.83

4.34

3.01

3.57

2.48

3.84
2.51

0
-2
-3.2

-4
Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

20

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

-1.34
Nov-15

Dec-15

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Macro Economic Indicators

354.00

Selected Macro Economic Indicators


Consumer Price Index (%)
8

Macro Economic Indicators

6.72

6.3

5.86

4.98

5.79

5.37

5.11

6.10

6.32

5.74

6.32

5.14

5.17
4.37

4.12

5.91

4.35

4
3

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Wholesale Price Index (%)

-0.28
0

-0.9
-1

-1.28

-0.73

-2
-1.17

-3

-2.33

-1.99

-2.13

-2.2

-2.43

-4

-3.79

-5

-3.81
-4.85

-6
Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

FII (in Billion)

Aug-15

-4.54

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

DII (in Billion)

200
150

129

121

115

117 115

100

86

120

67

53

50

17

123

103

85

63

0
-50
-100

-58

-79

-14

-33

-65

-28
-71

-150

-122

-200
Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Jul-15

21

-169
Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15 Dec-15

Jan-16

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JSL Classroom - Gross Domestic Product


What is GDP ?
Gross domestic product is the broadest quantitative measure of the nations total activity. GDP measures the monetary
time. GDP is composed of goods and services produced for sale in the market and also includes some non market
production. Calculating GDP by adding up expenditure is called as expenditure approach.
GDP = C + I + G+ (X-M)
Where, C = personal consumption expenditure
I = gross private investment
G = Government spending
(XM) = Net exports
Nominal GDP and Real GDP
Real GDP is a measure of the value of economic output adjusted for the price changes (i.e. inflation or deflation). It is Also
known as constant dollar GDP. Nominal GDP measures market value of final goods produced in a geographical region,
usually a country.
Why GDP is important ?
GDP enables policymakers and central banks to judge whether the economy is contracting or expanding. GDP helps the
investors to manage their portfolios by providing them guidance about the state of the economy.
Calculation of GDP provides with the general health of the economy. A negative GDP growth represent bad signals for the
economy. Economists analyze GDP to find out whether the economy is in recession, depression or boom.
What are the implications of the GDP growth rate ?
The GDP growth rate reflects the change in the inflation adjusted GDP from one period to the next and therefore GDP
indicates how fast or slow the economy is growing. If the country is producing more, then additional workers are employed,
more services and manufacturing products are consumed, and potentially more profits are generated for shareholders.
Hence, stock prices have reason to increase. A negative GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters is one of the factors
used to determine that the economy is in a recession.

GDP at Constant Prices (%)

Releasing Time
Government releases the GDP data quarterly with the
time lag of three months.
(Note : base year changed to 2011-12, change from GDP
at factor cost to GDP at market price)
(Source : Central Statistics Office)

22

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JSL Classroom

value of final goods and servicesthat is, those that are bought by the final user-produced in a country in a given period of

JSL Ideal Portfolio ( Diversified Equity )


Objective of Ideal Portfolio :

Ideal Portfolio

The objective of this portfolio is to generate long term capital appreciation by investing in concentrated portfolio of large cap
and growth oriented mid cap companies. This will help to generate meaningful wealth for Investors from Equity Market.
Stock Selection Methodology : Based on various fundamental parameters and valuation check along with certain themes
like Cyclical, Bottom Up, Sector specific, Policy Initiative/ push , Evergreen.
Key Risks : Macro economic / political condition and systematic risk, corporate performance risk
Stock

Weights
Weights

Sector

Suggestions

Price**

CMP*

Target

Potential Upside

Maruti Suzuki

Automobile

7%

Accumulate

4550

3520

5200

48%

KEC International

Capital Goods

5%

Accumulate

136

102

180

76%

Bharat Forge

Casting and Forgins

8%

Accumulate

868

786

1200

53%

Ultratech Cement

Cement

7%

Buy

2835

2923

3400

16%

Diwan Housing Finance

Housing Finance

8%

Buy

252

150

368

145%

Sun Pharma

Pharma

7%

Accumulate

831

882

1041

18%

Inox Wind

Power

8%

Buy

388

236

488

107%

Torrent Power

Power

8%

Buy

185

223

234

5%

State Bank of India

PSU Banks

7%

Accumulate

228

164

325

98%

Axis Bank

Public Bank

7%

Accumulate

454

397

620

56%

VRL Logistics

Logistics

5%

Buy

381

314

457

46%

Torrent Pharma

Pharma

8%

Buy

1555

223

1840

725%

Ashoka Buidcon

Infrastructure

5%

Buy

161

183

205

12%

Ahluwali Contracts

Infrastructure

5%

Buy

235

229

368

61%

Everday Industries

Consumer Non-Durable

5%

Accumulate

209

214

287

34%

Comparative Portfolio Returns


Particulars
Ideal Portfolio Return
Value Buy (100%)
CNX Small Cap

Return Since Inception

Return Since Inception

Particulars

-14.70%

Nifty

-22%
-20.98%

-9%

Sensex

-9.07%

CNX Mid Cap

-12.15%

Notes : *CMP as on 22/02/2016., Price ** on recommendation , Return since inception indicates from 1st Jan

Investment Horizon : 9-12 Months

23

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JSL Ideal Portfolio ( Small Cap )


Objective of Ideal Portfolio :
The aim is to generate long term capital appreciation from a portfolio that is not part of the leading stocks by market
a smaller base.
Stock Selection Methodology : Based on various valuation parameters and finding out early stage companies based on
sound business model and available at cheap valuation
Key Risks : Small-cap stocks are not tracked closely by market/ equity analysts and that is why the real value of good
small-cap stocks can remain undiscovered for long. This makes investing in them risky. The risk associated with large cap
funds also associated with small cap ( see last page). Small companies are relatively weak in terms of governance, dividend
policies and professionalism of the board. This makes them risky.
Stock

Sector

Weights

Suggestions

CMP*

Target

Potential Upside

AYM Syntex

Textile

10%

Accumulate

97

223

129%

Good Year

Tyre

10%

Accumulate

477

868

82%

KPR Mills

Textile

10%

Accumulate

653

1120

72%

KRBL

Food Processing

10%

Accumulate

188

360

91%

Garwale Wall Ropes

Textile

10%

Accumulate

308

550

79%

Smartlink Network

IT- Hardware

10%

Accumulate

87

156

79%

MPS

Printing

10%

Accumulate

630

1150

83%

MT Educare

Education

10%

Accumulate

148

220

49%

Shaily Engineering Plastics

Capital Goods

10%

Accumulate

513

890

73%

Ambika Cotton Mills Ltd.

Textile

10%

Accumulate

778

1149

48%

Small Cap Portfolio Allocation

Diversified Equity Portfolio Allocation


Power

16%

Pharmaceuticals

15%

Banks

14%

Infrastructure

10%

Casting and Forgings

Textile

30%

Computer - Hardware

10%

Education

10%

8%

Food Processing

10%

Housing Finance

8%

Pharmaceuticals

10%

Automobile

7%

Printing and Stationery

10%

Cement

7%

Capital Goods

5%

Retail

10%

Consumer Non-Durable

5%

Tyre

10%

Logistics

5%

Notes : *CMP as on 22/02/2016.

Investment Horizon : 18 - 24 Months

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Ideal Portfolio

capitalization. The aim is to include and invests in companies that have immense growth potential as they are operating on

Monthly Technical Picks

Monthly Technical Picks - Equity

SBI

APOLLOHOSP

We have detected positional buying in Supertrend on SBI in daily


charts. The stock has been beaten down badly and now after two
weeks of consolidation it has risen with volumes. The past 2 weeks
volume is higher than average weekly volume of stock. All other
momentum indicators like directional moving index are suggesting
possible up move in stock. Any decline should be used to buy the
stock.

We have detected an ascending continuation triangle chart pattern


formed on Apollo hospital charts. Its a bullish signal with good volume.
The increasingly higher highs within this pattern tells us that buyers
are more aggressive than sellers, confirmed by a breakout through a
resistance level with positive directional moving index crossover.

BUY BTWN 175-180 TGT 215 SL 158

BUY BTWN 1480-1500 TGT 1640 SL 1400

IBULHSGFIN

HDFC

We have detected a "Top Triangle" chart pattern formed on Indiabulls


Housing Finance. The price seems to have reached a top, showing
signs of reversal as it have broken downward after a period of
consolidation. A Top Triangle shows two converging trend lines as
prices reach lower highs and higher lows. Volume diminishes as the
price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow ranges
reflecting uncertainty in the market direction. Then well before the
triangle reaches its apex, the price breaks down below the lower trend
line with a noticeable increase in volume, confirming this bearish
pattern as a reversal of the prior uptrend.

We have detected that stock is in lower top & lower bottom formation
from previous few weeks. HDFC has made a low of 1011 and has
technically bounced back and came back to touch its 200 EMA
around 1180 levels in Daily charts. This rise in stock should be used to
sell.

SELL BTWN 650-670 TGT 570-550 SL 710

SELL BTWN 1160-1180 TGT 1100 SL 1200

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Monthly Technical Picks - Currency

GBP INR

Improved oil and commodity prices and pick-up in US economic data


has changed the sentiment to risk-on. Dollar has weakened against
commodity currencies and the Rupee has gained against Dollar on
buoyant equity markets following the Union Budget. OMO buyback
and expectations of mid-term policy rate cut by RBI has changed bond
market sentiment to positive. We expect the USD-INR to in a range of
Rs 64.20-69.20

EUR INR

The pair is in monthly consolidation as Average directional moving


index (ADX) is below 20 on monthly charts. Long term trend line
support is at 73.10 levels for month of March. We expect pair to move
in range and have support at 73.10 on downside and resistance at 78
on upside.

Monthly Technical Picks

The IMF has predicted strong growth from India over the next two
fiscal years, boosting INR and weakening GBP in long term. After a
confident Indian 2016 Budget, with the Rupee (INR) strengthening
against the British Pound (GBP). Although the initial flurry of Brexit
debate has subsided the pound to rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate
has remained on a softer footing so far this week, in spite of some
stronger UK data. The GBP INR pair will be range bound with strong
support at 91.50 and strong resistance at 105 levels.

USD INR

JPY INR

Japanese Yen is expected to trade sideways in short term as optimism


seen in the Asian markets will further act as a negative factor for the
Japanese Yen as investors prefer to place risky bets. For a medium to
long term horizon, we suggest buy on declines in pair as it has huge
support at 56.90 levels which is 100 EMA.The upside target remains
at 62-64 levels.

26

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Monthly Technical Outlook - Index


Nifty

Monthly Technical Outlook

The index opened at 7589, made a high of 7600, made a low of 6825 and closed the month at 6987. Last month we had
clearly mentioned that Nifty is in medium downtrend and is taking supports at long term trend line at 7550. We had also
clearly mentioned that once the trend line is broken, Nifty will find monthly cluster support at 6700-7200. Nifty touched low of
6825 in January. Directional moving index has already given negative crossover which confirms the downtrend. Nifty will
give some technical bounce back as its oversold and retracement can be seen up to 7200-7350-7420-7480 levels.
Downside support is at 6850-6700 levels. Positive trend will only began if nifty manages to close above 7550 on weekly
basis.

Bank Nifty
The index opened at 15547, made a high of 15565, made a low of 13407 and closed the month at 13946.Last month we had
clearly mentioned that Banknifty is in medium term downtrend. Earlier monthly support was 16100 levels where Banknifty
was continuously taking support from past 4 months. It had broken that support and we had mentioned last month
momentum of sell will rise on break of 15760 levels. Banknifty made low of 13760 in February. Next Monthly cluster support
comes at 13200-12000 levels. We advise to buy on declines with huge support at 13200 levels for targets of 14500-1510015500 levels.

27

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Monthly Technical Outlook - Commodity

Energy
Last week, crude oil prices ended with over 5% gains driven by disruptions to crude supplies and Wall Street's gains from
U.S. economic data. In international market prices turned negative soon after the release of weekly U.S. oil rig data by
industry firm Baker Hughes that showed a 10th weekly drop in the rig count. The data was positive to oil, but traders and
investors chose to lock in profits. Oil was up from the start of the week after data showing a slide in shale crude output and
strong gasoline demand in the United States. Also bolstering prices was a meeting scheduled for mid-March by at least four
major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, to discuss a production freeze at January's highs. On Friday, the market initially
surged on news that pipeline outages in Iraq and Nigeria will remove more than 800,000 barrels of crude per day from global
supply for at least two weeks. The disruptions should offset recent increases to supply from Iran. Investors on Friday
continued to react to comments from Eulogio Del Pino, a day after the Venezuelan oil minister reiterated that OPEC will host
a meeting next month to discuss a potential production freeze among a group of major exporters. The summit, Del Pino, told
broadcast network Telesur, will include 10 nations, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Qatar. The aforementioned trio, as
well as Venezuela, agreed in principle to an agreement last week, in which the four nations have pledged to limit their
production this year to levels reached in January. While natural gas prices ended with over 6% losses as concerns about the
heavily oversupplied market continued to keep pressure on prices. Warmer-than-average temperatures have cut demand
for natural gas as an indoor-heating fuel, forcing producers to keep more gas in storage. Natural-gas inventories fell by 117
billion cubic feet of natural gas in the week ended Feb. 19, the Energy Information Administration said Thursday, less than
the 138-bcf decline expected. Stockpiles as of Feb. 19 stood 29% above the five-year average for this time of year. Weather
forecasts for the next two weeks continue to call for moderate heating demand. Market participants have long expected the
start of U.S. natural-gas exports to boost the market, as the domestic glut could be absorbed by overseas demand. But a glut
of natural gas around the world has pushed down international prices and made U.S. liquefied natural gas less competitive.
Meanwhile, updated weather forecasts called for mild weather in the U.S. northeast through the first week of March.
Recommendation
BUY CRUDE OIL @ 2150 SL 2000 TGT 2280-2400. SELL NAT.GAS @ 125 SL 132 TGT 116-108

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Monthly Technical Picks

Bullion
Last week bullion prices ended with losses where gold prices dropped by over half percent losses and silver prices dropped
by more than 3% slipped as the dollar and global shares rose, but fund buying persisted as investors expected a G20
summit would produce little in the way of a coordinated stimulus program. Prices have largely remained in consolidation
after stretching into a high at 1263 earlier in the month. U.S. Commerce Department report showed that the economy
expanded at a 1% rate in the fourth quarter, up from an estimate of 0.7% growth last month. Concerns that a slowing global
economy could eventually push the United States into recession eased as data showed U.S. economic growth slowed less
than expected in the fourth quarter. Financial leaders from G20 nations gathered in Shanghai against a backdrop of
worsening economic conditions and a lack of wider consensus on how to fix the problems. Worries about the strength of the
U.S. economy, and the pace of further rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve, continue to provide support for the metal.
Since the start of the year, tumbling Chinese stock markets have also stoked demand for gold, as fears about the strength of
the worlds second-largest economy fueled haven buying. But those fears have cooled as economic data and markets there
have stabilized in recent weeks. Gold demand in Asia remained subdued this week as buyers were sceptical about the
sustainability of the recent price rally, with the Indian market falling to record discounts as consumers postponed purchases
in ex pectation of a cut in the import tax. Asian buyers have curbed purchases since mid-January as spot gold prices have
spiked to a one-year high amid a tumble in global stocks that stoked demand for the safe-haven metal. A stronger-thanexpected revision to U.S. 4Q GDP and a pickup in the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Feds preferred gauge
of inflation, fueled strength in the greenback as market participants repriced expectations for higher rates from the central
bank. Fed fund futures inched up on the back of the release, pricing a 30% chance of a 25basis point hike at the June policy
meeting. Looking ahead to next week, traders will be closely eyeing U.S. pending home sales, ISM data and the allimportant February Non-Farm Payrolls report. With this weeks uptick in PCE, a stronger print on the employment report
could further bring-in interest rate expectations as the central bank looks to achieve its dual mandate of fostering maximum
employment & price stability (i.e. 2% inflation).
Recommendation
BUY GOLD @ 29200 SL 28980 TGT 29800-30200. BUY SILVER ON DROP @ 35500 SL 34700 TGT 36500-37800

Plan your Investments


We love knowing what is cooking at our neighbours place. Some might even point out and say we are more interested what

Financial Planning

is happening next door than in our lives. Some of us are also forced to become engineers because Sharma Ji ka beta is an
engineer. Nobody asked if Sharma Ji ka beta if he wanted to be an engineer and nobody asked you either. Hate it or love it,
you dealt with four years of it. You lived someone elses plans and with every passing year you realized maybe you could
have some things differently. A plan tailor made for you, to suit your needs and passions.
That is the drawback of going along with someone elses plans. It simply is not designed to cater you our needs. Nobody
understands your needs better than you! Your investment plans are connected to your current income, your financial or life
goals and your personal circumstances. Your age and the conditions around you determine how you will go forward with
your investments. How do you create your own financial plan?

Assessing Your Current Situation


Current Age & Your Investment Options
Age is one of the determinants of your investments. Young investors invest differently from middle aged or old investors. The
former goes for high risk instruments because of the long investment period ahead of them. Aged or middle aged investors
have to keep incline towards moderate to less risky investment products due to the gradual shortening of their investment
horizon.
Current Financial Situation
Another factor that determines your investments are your current income. Your current income and expenses determine
how much you will be able to save and invest. It is imperative that the transition from savings to investments has to happen
otherwise the money remains stagnant and deprived of its potential. Young investors who have just started earning may
invest small amounts compared to experienced investors who has been working and investing for a longer period of time.
Risk profile
This determines the amount of risk you wish to take on your investments. A young investor could be wary of risk while an
experienced investor may take high calculated risk. Calculated risk in equities often lead to higher returns. However, it poses
the threat of loss as well. This may push some investors to take risk and some prefer not to. Risk profiling allows you to
understand the kind of investor you are and the extent to which you allow your exposure to equity investments to generate
desired and superior returns.

Inclining Investments to Your Goals


Start Investments for Goals
Blindly investing will not reap you any benefits because there is no motivation or intrinsic factor to keep investing. If your
goals are aligned to the ongoing investments, it provides a sense of direction. For example, you have been investing in an
Equity Linked Savings Scheme or ELSS fund and suddenly because of a salary hike your taxes have also increased. The
goal of an ELSS fund is to save on taxes and an increased investment in the ongoing fund fulfils the goal of tax saving.

29

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Plan your Investments


Hence, you aligned your investments with your personal goal.

value of investment is only to the extent it enables you to fulfill your goals. Intermediate goals are ten to twelve years usually
for child education where once the fees have been paid you need not keep investing for the same
goal. Some goals are long term and lifelong, like retirement goals. You have to keep investing for your retirement to maintain
the same standard of living and cover medical expenses. Hence, the time of investment determines the amount you will
need to put in every month or all at once.
Emergency & Liquid Funds
Time and emergency waits for none. It is only wise to be prepared for any kind of emergency that may befall you or your
family members, if you are the only bread earner. Investors often make short term investments in Mutual Fund Liquid Funds
for emergency funds and stay invested rather than letting the sum stagnant in a bank account.
Apart from emergency requirements, you may also decide on the ratio of liquid assets to investments. For example - If
you want a part of your investments to be liquid then you cannot invest in ELSS Funds as it has a lock in period of three years.

Creating & Monitoring Your Plans


Deciding upon Diversification
Allocating your assets further within an asset class is called diversification. Diversification is done to regulate risk in a
portfolio. Your investments will be in moderate risk equity options like Balanced Funds, Diversified Funds and if you are a low
risk taker you will invest in Large Cap Mutual Funds.
Consulting a Financial Advisor
You may not understand the process of investment as well as you would like to. It does require a certain amount of time and
effort which you may not have or do not want to give. This may result in lack of information or misinformation both of which
could be fatal to your investments. A financial advisor is supposed to give you neutral investment advice based on your
investment needs and income. Having a financial advisor makes the task of investing much easier and hassle free. Some
advisors may charge for services that he or she is offering but it is a small price to pay for the convenience you are availing.
Time Frame for Reviewing
Kick starting the process of investing is an immensely satisfying one. However, you have to take some personal interest in to
this process. However, a quick glance once in six months or annually will assure you that your investments are still in track.
You also have to make some more investments or watch the average performers. Thus, set a time period within which you
will monitor your portfolio and keep boosting your investments.
Deciding upon Your Asset Allocation
There are various classes of assets and deciding upon the ratio of investments in those asset classes your future returns are
determined in the long run. Investing in a mixed set of asset classes is a risk regulating factor for your investments. Your age

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Financial Planning

Timeline for Goals


The why of an investment determines the reason for your investment. Most of the reasons or goals are time bound and the

Plan your Investments

Financial Planning

and the degree of risk you wish to take determine your asset allocation.
Asset Allocations at various life stages
Life Stage

Investment Mantra

21-30 years
Aggressive Investment
Young
Low Surplus
Investor

31- 40 years
Moderately Aggressive Investment
Increasing Surplus
Young
Investor

41- 50 years
Matured
Investors

51- 60 years
Seasoned
Investors

60 onwards
Retired
Investors

Moderate risk in
investments
Peak of Income
leading to
increase in surplus
Safe Investment
Options
Looking to generate
income
Safe Investment
Options
Withdrawal of invt
to generate steady
income

H: High Risk Taker

Investment
Horizon

> 15 Years

> 10 years

> 10 years

> 10 years

> 5 years

M: Moderate Risk Taker

Asset Allocations
Risk
Equity Funds

Debt Funds

Cash

85%

10%

5%

75%

20%

5%

65%

30%

5%

75%

20%

5%

65%

30%

5%

55%

40%

5%

65%

30%

5%

55%

40%

5%

45%

50%

5%

55%

35%

10%

45%

45%

10%

35%

55%

10%

40%

45%

15%

30%

50%

20%

20%

55%

25%

C: Conservative Risk Taker

The table above shows the various asset allocation possibilities depending on the age and risk profile. One can also see
how different the asset allocation for a 20 year old is compared to the asset allocation of a 45 year old investor.

Conclusion
Investment is an individualistic activity that needs to be carried out in a manner that is best suitable for you. You cannot allow
the noise of other investors to determine your investments. A financial plan needs to be made depending on who you are
professionally, how much you earn and what are your future goals and if all your investments have been done with that
objective. If you wish to get some guidance getting professional advice is the wise way to go. Your plans determine your
investments.

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Date
Tue Mar 1

Wed Mar 2
Thu Mar 3

Fri Mar 4

Mon Mar 7
Tue Mar 8

Wed Mar 9

Thu Mar 10

Fri Mar 11

Sat Mar 12
Mon Mar 14
Tue Mar 15

Time in IST Currency


6:30am
CNY
CNY
7:15am
CNY
1:45pm
EUR
2:25pm
EUR
3:30pm
EUR
8:30pm
USD
1:30pm
EUR
6:45pm
USD
9:00pm
USD
7:15am
CNY
7:00pm
USD
USD
8:30pm
USD
USD
2:40pm
EUR
7:00pm
USD
USD
USD
USD
12:30pm
EUR
3:00pm
EUR
8:30pm
USD
1:30am
USD
12:30pm
EUR
2:30pm
EUR
3:30pm
EUR
8:30pm
USD
12:00pm
EUR
1:15pm
EUR
9:00pm
USD
11:31pm
USD
7:00am
CNY
CNY
6:15pm
EUR
7:00pm
EUR
USD
8:30pm
USD
12:30am
USD
12:30pm
EUR
7:00pm
USD
8:30pm
USD
11:00am
CNY
CNY
CNY
3:30pm
EUR
6:00pm
USD
7:30pm
USD
6:00pm
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
7:30pm
USD

Country/Event
Manufacturing PMI
Non-Manufacturing PMI
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Spanish Manufacturing PMI
German Unemployment Change
Unemployment Rate
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Spanish Unemployment Change
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Crude Oil Inventories
Caixin Services PMI
Unemployment Claims
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Factory Orders m/m
Retail PMI
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change
Trade Balance
Unemployment Rate
German Factory Orders m/m
Sentix Investor Confidence
Labor Market Conditions Index m/m
Consumer Credit m/m
German Industrial Production m/m
Italian Industrial Production m/m
Revised GDP q/q
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
French Industrial Production m/m
Crude Oil Inventories
10-y Bond Auction
CPI y/y
PPI y/y
Minimum Bid Rate
ECB Press Conference
Unemployment Claims
JOLTS Job Openings
Federal Budget Balance
German Final CPI m/m
Import Prices m/m
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Industrial Production y/y
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
Retail Sales y/y
Industrial Production m/m
Import Prices m/m
NAHB Housing Market Index
Core Retail Sales m/m
PPI m/m
Retail Sales m/m
Core PPI m/m
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Business Inventories m/m

Date
Wed Mar 16

Thu Mar 17

Fri Mar 18
Mon Mar 21

Tue Mar 22

Wed Mar 23
Thu Mar 24

Fri Mar 25

Mon Mar 28

Tue Mar 29

Wed Mar 30
Thu Mar 31

Time in IST Currency


6:00pm
USD
USD
USD
USD
6:45pm
USD
USD
8:00pm
USD
11:30pm
USD
USD
USD
12:00am
USD
3:30pm
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
6:00pm
USD
USD
8:00pm
USD
12:30pm
EUR
6:00pm
USD
1:30pm
EUR
2:00pm
EUR
EUR
2:30pm
EUR
EUR
7:30pm
USD
3:30pm
EUR
EUR
6:30pm
USD
8:30pm
EUR
2:30pm
EUR
6:30pm
CNY
8:00pm
USD
3:45pm
EUR
6:00pm
USD
USD
USD
6:00pm
USD
USD
7:30pm
USD
USD
6:00pm
USD
USD
USD
USD
7:30pm
USD
11:30am
EUR
12:30pm
EUR
1:25pm
EUR
1:30pm
EUR
7:30pm
USD
All Day
EUR
5:45pm
USD
8:00pm
USD
2:30pm
EUR
EUR
5:00pm
EUR
6:00pm
USD
7:15pm
USD

Country/Event
Building Permits
CPI m/m
Core CPI m/m
Housing Starts
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Economic Projections
FOMC Statement
Federal Funds Rate
FOMC Press Conference
Final CPI y/y
Final Core CPI y/y
Italian Retail Sales m/m
Trade Balance
Unemployment Claims
Current Account
Natural Gas Storage
German PPI m/m
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
French Flash Services PMI
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
German Flash Services PMI
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
Existing Home Sales
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
ZEW Economic Sentiment
HPI m/m
Consumer Confidence
German Ifo Business Climate
CB Leading Index m/m
Crude Oil Inventories
Targeted LTRO
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders m/m
Final GDP q/q
Final GDP Price Index q/q
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Goods Trade Balance
Personal Spending m/m
Personal Income m/m
Pending Home Sales m/m
German Retail Sales m/m
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
German Unemployment Change
M3 Money Supply y/y
CB Consumer Confidence
German Prelim CPI m/m
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Crude Oil Inventories
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Unemployment Claims
Chicago PMI

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DISCLAIMER : Trading and Investment decision taken on your consultation are solely at the discretion of the traders/investors.We are not liable for any loss, which occur as a result of our recommendations. This document has
been prepared on the of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable.
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