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7.

5
Making Connections:
Mathematical Modelling
With Exponential and
Logarithmic Equations

Countless freshwater lakes, lush forests, and breathtaking landscapes make


northern Ontario a popular summer vacation destination. Every year, millions
of Ontarians go there to enjoy summer life in the peaceful setting of a cottage,
a campground, or a small town.

Suppose you live and work in northern Ontario as an urban planner. As towns
grow, you will need to pose and solve a variety of problems such as the following.

• How much commercial development should be encouraged or permitted?

• When and where should a highway off-ramp be built?

• Which natural landscapes should be left undisturbed?

These and other related problems may require applying and solving exponential
and logarithmic equations.

Careful planning and development can ensure that the natural beauty of our
northern landscape is preserved, while meeting the needs of a growing population.

Take a journey now to Decimal Point, a fictional town located somewhere


in northern Ontario. You have been assigned to perform some urban
planning for this friendly community.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 393
Example 1 Select and Apply a Mathematical Model
The population of Decimal Point has been steadily growing for several
decades. The table gives the population at 5-year intervals, beginning in
1920, the year the town’s population reached 1000.

Time (years) Population


0 1000
5 1100
10 1180
15 1250
20 1380
25 1500
30 1600

a) Create a scatter plot to illustrate this growth trend.


b) Construct a quadratic model to fit the data.
c) Construct an exponential model to fit the data.
d) Which model is better, and why?
e) Suppose that it is decided that a recreation centre should be built once the
town’s population reaches 5000. When should the recreation centre be built?

Solution
Method 1: Use a Graphing Calculator
a) Clear all equations and Stat Plots from the calculator. Enter the data in
lists L1 and L2 using the list editor.

Turn Plot1 on. From the Zoom menu, choose 9:ZoomStat to display the
scatter plot.

394 MHR • Advanced Functions • Chapter 7


b) Use quadratic regression to determine a quadratic equation of best fit, CONNECTIONS
and store it as a function, Y1, by following these steps: Your calculator may display a
• Press o. value for r 2, which is called the
• Choose CALC, and then select 5:QuadReg. coefficient of determination.
It indicates how close the data
• Press O 1 for [L1], followed by G.
points lie to the curve of the
• Press O 2 for [L2], followed by G. model. The closer r 2 is to 1,
• Press s. Cursor over to Y-VARS. Select 1:Function and press e. the better the fit. You will learn
more about the coefficient of
determination if you study
data management.

Technology Tip s
If r does not automatically appear:
2

• Press O 0 for [CATALOG].


The equation of the curve of best fit is approximately
• Press a v to quickly
y ⫽ 0.15x2 ⫹15.4x ⫹ 1006, where y is the population after x years. scroll to the items beginning
c) To determine an exponential equation of best fit, follow the same steps with the letter D.
as above, except choose 0:ExpReg instead of 5:QuadReg. Store the • Choose Diagnostics On.
exponential equation of best fit in Y2. • Press e twice.
You may need to repeat the
regression step to see r 2. This
can be done quickly by using
O e for [ENTRY]
until the regression command
appears, and then pressing e.

The equation of the exponential curve of best fit is approximately CONNECTIONS


P ⫽ 1006(1.016)t, where P is the population after t years.
The value of r showing on the
d) Note that both regression analyses yield equations with very high values screen represents the correlation
of r 2, suggesting that both models fit the given data well. To examine the coefficient, which measures the
scatter plot and both model graphs, press x to open the graph editor. strength and direction of the
Then, ensure that Plot1, Y1, and Y2 are all highlighted. For clarity, the relationship between x and y.
line style of one of the functions can be altered (e.g., made thick).

Press f to see how well the two curves fit the given data.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 395
It appears that either model fits the data equally well, since the functions
are virtually indistinguishable. Are these models equally valid? Zoom out
to see how the models extrapolate beyond the given data.
Zoom out once:

The models appear to diverge here.

Technology Tip s What meaning does the part of the graph to the left of the origin have?
When you press r, the Do you think this a valid part of the domain for this problem? Zoom out
cursor will trace the points of the again, and then use the ZoomBox operation to explore this region. Use
scatter plot, the function Y1, or the TRACE operation to track the coordinates of each model.
the function Y2. You can toggle
between these by using the up
and down cursor keys. Use the
left and right cursor keys to
trace along a function graph
or set of points.

An anomaly occurs when extrapolating the quadratic model back in time.


This model suggests that the population of the town was actually once
larger than it was in year zero, and then decreased and increased again.
This contradicts the given information in the problem, which states that
the town’s population had been growing for several decades.
The exponential model gives a more reasonable description of the
population trend before year zero due to its nature of continuous growth.
Therefore, the exponential model is better for describing this trend.

Method 2: Use Fathom


®
a) Open a new collection and enter the data into a Case Table.

396 MHR • Advanced Functions • Chapter 7


Create a scatter plot of Year versus Population.

Technology Tip s
To create this New Graph:
• Click and drag the graph icon
from the menu at the top.
• Click and drag the Year attribute
onto the horizontal axis.
• Click and drag the Population
attribute onto the vertical axis.

b) Create a dynamic quadratic model by following these steps:


• Click and drag three sliders from the menu at the top. Label them a,
b, and c.
• Click on the graph. From the Graph menu, choose Plot Function.
• Enter the function a*Year^2 ⫹ b*Year ⫹ c and click on OK.
Adjust the sliders until a curve of best fit is obtained. Hint: What should
the approximate value of c be (think about when x ⫽ 0)?

Technology Tip s
You can adjust the scales of
the sliders by placing the
cursor in various locations and
then clicking and dragging.
Experiment with this, noting
the various hand positions that
appear and what they allow
you to do.

The quadratic curve of best fit is given approximately by


P ⫽ 0.15t2 ⫹ 15.5t ⫹ 1006, where P is the population after t years.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 397
c) An exponential equation can be written in terms of any base. Therefore,
it is possible to determine an equation to model the population, P, of this
town as a function of time, t, in years, in terms of its initial population,
1000, and its doubling period, d:
_t
P ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 d
Create a dynamic exponential model with a single slider, d. Adjust d until
the curve of best fit is obtained.

The doubling period is approximately 43.5 years. The exponential


t
_
equation of the curve of best fit is approximately P ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 43.5 .

d) Note that both models fit the data well. To see how well they perform
for extrapolation, adjust the axes of each graph.

398 MHR • Advanced Functions • Chapter 7


e) Use either exponential algebraic model to determine when the recreation
centre should be built for Decimal Point by solving for t when P ⫽ 5000.
t
_
P ⫽ 1006(1.016)t P ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 43.5
t
_
5000 ⫽ 1006(1.16)t 5000 ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 43.5 Divide both sides by 1000.
t
_
5000 ⬟ 1.016t
_ Divide both sides by 1006. 5 ⫽ 2 43.5
1006 t
_
log 5 ⫽ log (2 43.5 ) Take the common
log (5000
_
1006 )
⬟ log(1.016)t logarithm of both sides.

(
log _5000
1006 ) Apply the power law of
logarithms and divide
log 5 ⫽ _(
t
43.5 )
log 2 Apply the power law
of logarithms.
__ ⬟t
log 1.016 both sides by log 1.016.

( )log 5 Multiply both sides by


t ⬟ 101 Use a calculator to 43.5 _ ⫽ t 43.5 and divide both
log 2 sides by log 2.
evaluate.

t ⬟ 101 Use a calculator to evaluate.

Both models indicate that the recreation centre should be built


approximately 101 years after the population of Decimal Point reached
1000. Because the population reached 1000 in 1920, the recreation
centre should be built in the year 2021.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 399
Example 1 illustrates the important distinction between curve-fitting and modelling.
A well-fit curve may be useful for interpolating a given data set, but such a
model may break down when extrapolated to describe past or future trends.

The town of Decimal Point is enjoying a fiscal surplus, a pleasant situation in


which financial revenues exceed expenses. How should the town’s funds be
invested in order to earn the best rate of return?

The compound interest formula modelling the future amount, A, of an


investment with initial principal P is A ⫽ P(1 ⫹ i)n, where i is the interest
rate per compounding period, in decimal form, and n is the number of
compounding periods.

Example 2 Investment Optimization


Decimal Point has a surplus of $50 000 to invest to build a recreation centre.
The two best investment options are described in the table.

Investment Option Lakeland Savings Bond Northern Equity Mutual Fund


1
Interest Rate 6 _ % compounded annually 6% compounded semi-annually
4
2% of initial principal penalty if
Conditions none
withdrawn before 10 years

a) Construct an algebraic model that gives the amount, A, as a function


of time, t, in years, for each investment.
b) Which of these investment options will allow the town to double its
money faster?
c) Illustrate how these relationships compare, graphically.
d) If the town needs $80 000 to begin building the recreation centre, how
soon can work begin, and which investment option should be chosen?

Solution
a) Determine the number of compounding periods and the interest rate per
compounding period for each investment. Then, substitute these values
into the algebraic model. Use a table to organize the information.

Lakeland Savings Bond Northern Equity Mutual Fund


Number of compounding
n⫽t n ⫽ 2t
periods, n
Interest rate per 1 6% per year ⫼ 2 periods per year
6 _ % per year ⫽ 0.0625
compounding period, i 4 ⫽ 0.03

A ⴝ P(1 ⫹ i)n A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t A ⫽ 50 000(1.03)2t

400 MHR • Advanced Functions • Chapter 7


b) To determine how long it will take for each investment to double in value,
substitute A ⫽ 100 000 and solve for t.

Lakeland Savings Bond Northern Equity Mutual Fund


A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625) t
100 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.03)2t
100 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t 2 ⫽ (1.03)2t
Take the common logarithm
2 ⫽ (1.0625)t log 2 ⫽ log (1.03)2t
of both sides.
Take the common
log 2 ⫽ log (1.0625)t logarithm of both sides. log 2 ⫽ 2t log 1.03 Use the power law of logarithms.
log 2 ⫽ t log 1.0625 Use the power law of log 2
logarithms. t ⫽ __ Divide both sides by 2 log 1.03.
2 log 1.03
log 2
t ⫽ __ Divide both sides by
t ⬟ 11.7
log 1.0625 log 1.0625.

⬟ 11.4 The Northern Equity investment will take


approximately 11.7 years to double in value.
The Lakeland investment will take
approximately 11.4 years to double in value.

Therefore, the Lakeland Savings Bond will allow the town to double its
money slightly faster.
c) The two investment relationships can be compared graphically using
graphing software.

Note that f(x) corresponds to Lakeland Savings Bond and g(x) to


Northern Equity Mutual Fund and that both are functions of x,
measured in tens of thousands of dollars ($10 000).

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 401
d) The graph indicates that both accounts will reach $80 000 after about
8 years. The Lakeland account earns interest faster, but is it the best
choice for preparing to build the recreation centre? The penalty for
early withdrawal must be considered.
The exponential model can be adjusted for withdrawals that happen
within the first 10 years by subtracting 2% of the initial principal.
The adjusted equation becomes
A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t ⫺ 0.02(50 000)

2% penalty for early withdrawal


or A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t ⫺ 1000.
Applying a vertical shift to the original amount function can reveal the
effect of this penalty.

The function q(x) represents the adjusted amount function for the
Lakeland account. It is unclear from the graph which account will reach
$80 000 first. Apply algebraic reasoning to decide.

Substitute A ⫽ 80 000 and solve for t.


Lakeland Savings Bond (penalty adjusted)
A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t ⫺ 1000
80 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t ⫺ 1000
81 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t Add 1000 to both sides.
1.62 ⫽ (1.0625) t
Divide both sides by 50 000.
log 1.62 ⫽ log (1.0625) t
Take the common logarithm of both sides.
log 1.62 ⫽ t log 1.0625
log 1.62
t ⫽ __
log 1.0625
⬟ 7.96

402 MHR • Advanced Functions • Chapter 7


The Lakeland account will reach $80 000 in value after 7.96 years, after
adjusting for the early withdrawal penalty.
Northern Equity Mutual Fund
A ⫽ 50 000(1.03)2t
80 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.03)2t
1.6 ⫽ 1.032t
log 1.6 ⫽ log (1.03)2t Take the common logarithm of both sides.
log 1.6 ⫽ 2t log 1.03
log 1.6
t ⫽ __
2 log 1.03
⬟ 7.95
The Northern Equity account will reach $80 000 in value after 7.95 years.

Since the time difference between these two accounts is so small, it does Reasoning and Proving
Representing Selecting Tools
not really matter which one is chosen, from a purely financial perspective.
Other factors may be considered, such as the additional flexibility Problem Solving

afforded by the Northern Equity account. If the township finds itself in Connecting Reflecting
Communicating
a deficit situation (where expenses exceed revenues), for example, and if
some of the money in reserve is required for other, more urgent, purposes,
then the Northern Equity account may be preferable.

< KEY CONCEPTS


>
Different technology tools and strategies can be used to construct
mathematical models that describe real situations.
A good mathematical model
• is useful for both interpolating and extrapolating from given data in
order to make predictions
• can be used, in conjunction with other considerations, to aid in
decision making
Exponential and logarithmic equations often appear in contexts that
involve continuous growth or decay.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 403
Communicate Your Understanding
C1 Refer to Example 1. Two regression models were proposed and one
was found to be better.
a) What was the basis for rejecting the quadratic model?
b) Consider a linear model for the data. Is it possible to construct a
line that fits the given data reasonably well?
c) Would a linear model be valid for extrapolation purposes?
Explain why or why not.
C2 Explain the difference between curve-fitting and mathematical
modelling. Identify any advantages either procedure has over the other.
C3 Refer to Example 2. Suppose that instead of an early withdrawal
penalty, the investment agency provids a bonus of 2% of the principal
if it is not withdrawn before 10 years have elapsed. How could this be
reflected using a transformation, and when will it apply?

A Practise
For help with questions 1 to 3, refer to Example 1. 3. Refer to the two exponential models developed
1. Plans for Decimal Point call for a highway in Example 1:
t
_
off-ramp to be built once the town’s population P ⫽ 1006(1.016)t P ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 43.5
reaches 6500. When should the off-ramp be built?
a) Use both models to predict
2. The town historian is writing a newspaper article i) the town’s population after 100 years
about a time when Decimal Point’s population
ii) how long it will take for the town’s
was only 100. Estimate when this was.
population to reach 20 000
b) Do these models generate predictions that
are identical, quite close, or completely
different? How would you account for
any discrepancies?

B Connect and Apply


For help with questions 4 and 5, refer to Example 2. 5. Suppose two other investment options are
4. Suppose that the Reasoning and Proving available for Decimal Point’s reserve fund:
Lakeland Savings Representing Selecting Tools
Muskoka
Bond group waives Problem Solving Investment Rural Ontario Guaranteed
the early withdrawal Connecting Reflecting Option Investment Group Certificate
1
penalty. How might Communicating
Interest 6 _ % compounded 6% compounded
2
this affect the Rate semi-annually monthly
investment decision for the town?
1% of initial principal
Provide detailed information. Conditions no penalty penalty if withdrawn
before 10 years

Should either of these investments be


considered? Justify your reasoning.

404 MHR • Advanced Functions • Chapter 7


6. Use Technology The table gives the surface 8. Refer to question 7. Suppose that a penalty
area of seawater covered by an oil spill as a for early withdrawal of 5% of the initial
function of time. investment is applied if the withdrawal occurs
within the first 4 years.
Time (min) Surface Area (m2)
a) Write an equation for the adjusted value of
0 0
the investment as a function of time.
1 2
2 4
b) Describe the effect this adjustment would
3 7
have on the graph of the original function.
4 11 9. Use Technology
5 14
a) Prepare a cup of Reasoning and Proving
6 29 Representing Selecting Tools
hot liquid, such as
coffee, tea, or hot Problem Solving
a) Create a scatter plot of surface area versus
water. Carefully Connecting Reflecting
time. Describe the shape of the curve. Communicating
place the cup
b) Perform the following types of regression on a stable surface in a room at normal
to model the data: room temperature.
i) linear b) Record the temperature of the liquid as it
ii) quadratic cools, in a table like the one shown. Collect
iii) exponential (omit time 0 for this several data points.
regression)
Record the equation for the line or curve Time (min) Temperature (°C)
of best fit in each case. 0
2
c) Assuming that the spill is spreading
4
isotropically (equally in all directions),
which model do you think makes the
most sense for t ⱖ 0? Explain why.
c) Create a scatter plot of temperature versus
d) Use the model that you chose in part c) time. Describe the shape of the curve.
to predict
d) Create the following models for the data,
i) the size of the oil spill after 10 min using regression:
ii) the length of time it will take for the i) quadratic
spill to reach a diameter of 30 m
ii) exponential
e) Describe any assumptions you must make.
Record the equation for each model.
7. A $1000 investment earns 8% interest, e) Which of these is the better model? Justify
compounded quarterly. your choice.
a) Write an equation for the value of the f) Use the model that you chose in part e) to
investment as a function of time, in years. estimate how long it will take for the liquid
b) Determine the value of the investment after to cool to
4 years. i) 40°C
c) How long will it take for the investment to ii) 30°C
double in value?
iii) 0°C
Justify your answers and state any
assumptions you must make.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 405
10. Chapter Problem Decimal Point is hosting ✓Achievement Check
Summer-Fest: a large outdoor concert to
celebrate the start of summer. The headline 11. Use Technology The table shows the population
act is a rising rock group from Australia. growth of rabbits living in a warren.

Time (months) Number of Rabbits


Live, from Australia:
0 16
Koalarox!
1 18
Featuring
2 21
Rocco Rox on lead guitar! 3 24
Boom Boom Biff on drums! 4 32
When: July 1, 8:00 p.m. 5 37
6 41
Where: Integer Island
7 50

During sound checks, the band’s sound crew CONNECTIONS


is responsible for setting various acoustic and A warren is a den where rabbits live.
electronic instruments to ensure a rich and
balanced sound. The difference in two sound
a) Create a scatter plot of rabbit population
levels, ␤1 and ␤2, in decibels, is given by the

()
versus time.
I
logarithmic equation ␤2 ⫺ ␤1 ⫽ 10 log _2 , b) Perform the following types of regression to
I I1
where _2 is the ratio of their intensities. model the data:
I1 i) linear
a) Biff’s drum kit is miked to produce a sound
ii) quadratic
level of 150 dB for the outdoor venue. The
maximum output of Rocco’s normal electric iii) exponential
guitar amplifier is 120 dB. What is the ratio Record the equation for the line or curve of
of the intensities of these instruments? best fit in each case.
Explain why Rocco’s signal needs to be c) Assuming that the rabbit population had
boosted by a concert amplifier. been steadily growing for several months
b) After a few heavier songs, the band plans before the collection of data, which model
to slow things down a bit with a couple of best fits the situation, and why?
power ballads. This means that Rocco will d) Use the model to predict when the population
switch to his acoustic guitar, which is only will reach 100.
one ten-thousandth as loud as his normally e) Do you think this trend will continue
amplified electric guitar. By what factor indefinitely? Explain why or why not.
should the sound crew reduce Biff’s drums to
balance them with Rocco’s acoustic guitar?

CONNECTIONS
You first compared sound levels using the decibel scale in Chapter 6.
Refer to Section 6.5.

406 MHR • Advanced Functions • Chapter 7


C Extend and Challenge
12. a) Find some data on the Internet, or elsewhere, 14. Use your data from question 13. A piecewise
that could be modelled by one or more of linear function is a function made up of two
the following: or more connected line segments. Could the
• a line of best fit data be modelled using a piecewise linear
function? If so, do so. If not, explain why not.
• a quadratic curve of best fit
• an exponential curve of best fit 15. Math Contest A cyclist rides her bicycle
1 uphill, _
over a route that is _ 1 level, and _
1
b) Describe the nature of the data. 3 3 3
c) Use Technology Perform regression analysis downhill. If she covers the uphill part of the
for each type of curve. Record the equation route at a rate of 16 km/h, and the level part at
in each case. How well does each line or a rate of 24 km/h, what rate would she have to
curve fit the data? travel during the downhill part of the route in
order to average 24 km/h for the entire route?
d) Which is the best model and why?
e) Pose and solve two problems based on the 16. Math Contest A circle with radius √ 2 is
data and your best model. centred at the point (0, 0) on a Cartesian
plane. What is the area of the smaller segment
13. Use Technology
cut from the circle by the chord from (⫺1, 1)
a) Find some data on the Internet, or elsewhere, to (1, 1)?
that could be modelled by a logistic curve.
17. Math Contest The quantities x, y, and z are
b) Describe the nature of the data. z
positive, and xy ⫽ _ . If x is increased by 50%,
c) Perform logistical regression analysis. 4
Record the equation. How well does each and y is decreased by 25%, by what percent is
line or curve fit the data? z increased or decreased?

d) Which is the best model and why?


e) Pose and solve two problems based on the
data and your best model.

CONNECTIONS
Certain types of growth phenomena follow a pattern that can be modelled by a logistic function, y
c
which takes the form f(x) ⫽ __ , where a, b, and c are constants related to the conditions
1 ⫹ ae⫺bx
of the phenomenon, and e is a special irrational number, like π. Its value is approximately 2.718.
The logistic curve is sometimes called the S-curve because of its shape.
Logistic functions occur in diverse areas, such as biology, environmental studies, and business,
0 x
in situations where resources for growth are limited and/or where conditions for growth vary over time.
Go to www.mcgrawhill.ca/links/functions12 and follow the links to learn more about logistic functions
and logistic curves.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 407