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5

Making Connections:

Mathematical Modelling

With Exponential and

Logarithmic Equations

northern Ontario a popular summer vacation destination. Every year, millions

of Ontarians go there to enjoy summer life in the peaceful setting of a cottage,

a campground, or a small town.

Suppose you live and work in northern Ontario as an urban planner. As towns

grow, you will need to pose and solve a variety of problems such as the following.

These and other related problems may require applying and solving exponential

and logarithmic equations.

Careful planning and development can ensure that the natural beauty of our

northern landscape is preserved, while meeting the needs of a growing population.

in northern Ontario. You have been assigned to perform some urban

planning for this friendly community.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 393

Example 1 Select and Apply a Mathematical Model

The population of Decimal Point has been steadily growing for several

decades. The table gives the population at 5-year intervals, beginning in

1920, the year the town’s population reached 1000.

0 1000

5 1100

10 1180

15 1250

20 1380

25 1500

30 1600

b) Construct a quadratic model to ﬁt the data.

c) Construct an exponential model to ﬁt the data.

d) Which model is better, and why?

e) Suppose that it is decided that a recreation centre should be built once the

town’s population reaches 5000. When should the recreation centre be built?

Solution

Method 1: Use a Graphing Calculator

a) Clear all equations and Stat Plots from the calculator. Enter the data in

lists L1 and L2 using the list editor.

Turn Plot1 on. From the Zoom menu, choose 9:ZoomStat to display the

scatter plot.

b) Use quadratic regression to determine a quadratic equation of best ﬁt, CONNECTIONS

and store it as a function, Y1, by following these steps: Your calculator may display a

• Press o. value for r 2, which is called the

• Choose CALC, and then select 5:QuadReg. coefficient of determination.

It indicates how close the data

• Press O 1 for [L1], followed by G.

points lie to the curve of the

• Press O 2 for [L2], followed by G. model. The closer r 2 is to 1,

• Press s. Cursor over to Y-VARS. Select 1:Function and press e. the better the fit. You will learn

more about the coefficient of

determination if you study

data management.

Technology Tip s

If r does not automatically appear:

2

The equation of the curve of best ﬁt is approximately

• Press a v to quickly

y ⫽ 0.15x2 ⫹15.4x ⫹ 1006, where y is the population after x years. scroll to the items beginning

c) To determine an exponential equation of best ﬁt, follow the same steps with the letter D.

as above, except choose 0:ExpReg instead of 5:QuadReg. Store the • Choose Diagnostics On.

exponential equation of best ﬁt in Y2. • Press e twice.

You may need to repeat the

regression step to see r 2. This

can be done quickly by using

O e for [ENTRY]

until the regression command

appears, and then pressing e.

P ⫽ 1006(1.016)t, where P is the population after t years.

The value of r showing on the

d) Note that both regression analyses yield equations with very high values screen represents the correlation

of r 2, suggesting that both models ﬁt the given data well. To examine the coefficient, which measures the

scatter plot and both model graphs, press x to open the graph editor. strength and direction of the

Then, ensure that Plot1, Y1, and Y2 are all highlighted. For clarity, the relationship between x and y.

line style of one of the functions can be altered (e.g., made thick).

Press f to see how well the two curves ﬁt the given data.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 395

It appears that either model ﬁts the data equally well, since the functions

are virtually indistinguishable. Are these models equally valid? Zoom out

to see how the models extrapolate beyond the given data.

Zoom out once:

Technology Tip s What meaning does the part of the graph to the left of the origin have?

When you press r, the Do you think this a valid part of the domain for this problem? Zoom out

cursor will trace the points of the again, and then use the ZoomBox operation to explore this region. Use

scatter plot, the function Y1, or the TRACE operation to track the coordinates of each model.

the function Y2. You can toggle

between these by using the up

and down cursor keys. Use the

left and right cursor keys to

trace along a function graph

or set of points.

This model suggests that the population of the town was actually once

larger than it was in year zero, and then decreased and increased again.

This contradicts the given information in the problem, which states that

the town’s population had been growing for several decades.

The exponential model gives a more reasonable description of the

population trend before year zero due to its nature of continuous growth.

Therefore, the exponential model is better for describing this trend.

®

a) Open a new collection and enter the data into a Case Table.

Create a scatter plot of Year versus Population.

Technology Tip s

To create this New Graph:

• Click and drag the graph icon

from the menu at the top.

• Click and drag the Year attribute

onto the horizontal axis.

• Click and drag the Population

attribute onto the vertical axis.

• Click and drag three sliders from the menu at the top. Label them a,

b, and c.

• Click on the graph. From the Graph menu, choose Plot Function.

• Enter the function a*Year^2 ⫹ b*Year ⫹ c and click on OK.

Adjust the sliders until a curve of best ﬁt is obtained. Hint: What should

the approximate value of c be (think about when x ⫽ 0)?

Technology Tip s

You can adjust the scales of

the sliders by placing the

cursor in various locations and

then clicking and dragging.

Experiment with this, noting

the various hand positions that

appear and what they allow

you to do.

P ⫽ 0.15t2 ⫹ 15.5t ⫹ 1006, where P is the population after t years.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 397

c) An exponential equation can be written in terms of any base. Therefore,

it is possible to determine an equation to model the population, P, of this

town as a function of time, t, in years, in terms of its initial population,

1000, and its doubling period, d:

_t

P ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 d

Create a dynamic exponential model with a single slider, d. Adjust d until

the curve of best ﬁt is obtained.

t

_

equation of the curve of best ﬁt is approximately P ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 43.5 .

d) Note that both models ﬁt the data well. To see how well they perform

for extrapolation, adjust the axes of each graph.

e) Use either exponential algebraic model to determine when the recreation

centre should be built for Decimal Point by solving for t when P ⫽ 5000.

t

_

P ⫽ 1006(1.016)t P ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 43.5

t

_

5000 ⫽ 1006(1.16)t 5000 ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 43.5 Divide both sides by 1000.

t

_

5000 ⬟ 1.016t

_ Divide both sides by 1006. 5 ⫽ 2 43.5

1006 t

_

log 5 ⫽ log (2 43.5 ) Take the common

log (5000

_

1006 )

⬟ log(1.016)t logarithm of both sides.

(

log _5000

1006 ) Apply the power law of

logarithms and divide

log 5 ⫽ _(

t

43.5 )

log 2 Apply the power law

of logarithms.

__ ⬟t

log 1.016 both sides by log 1.016.

t ⬟ 101 Use a calculator to 43.5 _ ⫽ t 43.5 and divide both

log 2 sides by log 2.

evaluate.

approximately 101 years after the population of Decimal Point reached

1000. Because the population reached 1000 in 1920, the recreation

centre should be built in the year 2021.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 399

Example 1 illustrates the important distinction between curve-ﬁtting and modelling.

A well-ﬁt curve may be useful for interpolating a given data set, but such a

model may break down when extrapolated to describe past or future trends.

which ﬁnancial revenues exceed expenses. How should the town’s funds be

invested in order to earn the best rate of return?

investment with initial principal P is A ⫽ P(1 ⫹ i)n, where i is the interest

rate per compounding period, in decimal form, and n is the number of

compounding periods.

Decimal Point has a surplus of $50 000 to invest to build a recreation centre.

The two best investment options are described in the table.

1

Interest Rate 6 _ % compounded annually 6% compounded semi-annually

4

2% of initial principal penalty if

Conditions none

withdrawn before 10 years

of time, t, in years, for each investment.

b) Which of these investment options will allow the town to double its

money faster?

c) Illustrate how these relationships compare, graphically.

d) If the town needs $80 000 to begin building the recreation centre, how

soon can work begin, and which investment option should be chosen?

Solution

a) Determine the number of compounding periods and the interest rate per

compounding period for each investment. Then, substitute these values

into the algebraic model. Use a table to organize the information.

Number of compounding

n⫽t n ⫽ 2t

periods, n

Interest rate per 1 6% per year ⫼ 2 periods per year

6 _ % per year ⫽ 0.0625

compounding period, i 4 ⫽ 0.03

b) To determine how long it will take for each investment to double in value,

substitute A ⫽ 100 000 and solve for t.

A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625) t

100 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.03)2t

100 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t 2 ⫽ (1.03)2t

Take the common logarithm

2 ⫽ (1.0625)t log 2 ⫽ log (1.03)2t

of both sides.

Take the common

log 2 ⫽ log (1.0625)t logarithm of both sides. log 2 ⫽ 2t log 1.03 Use the power law of logarithms.

log 2 ⫽ t log 1.0625 Use the power law of log 2

logarithms. t ⫽ __ Divide both sides by 2 log 1.03.

2 log 1.03

log 2

t ⫽ __ Divide both sides by

t ⬟ 11.7

log 1.0625 log 1.0625.

approximately 11.7 years to double in value.

The Lakeland investment will take

approximately 11.4 years to double in value.

Therefore, the Lakeland Savings Bond will allow the town to double its

money slightly faster.

c) The two investment relationships can be compared graphically using

graphing software.

Northern Equity Mutual Fund and that both are functions of x,

measured in tens of thousands of dollars ($10 000).

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 401

d) The graph indicates that both accounts will reach $80 000 after about

8 years. The Lakeland account earns interest faster, but is it the best

choice for preparing to build the recreation centre? The penalty for

early withdrawal must be considered.

The exponential model can be adjusted for withdrawals that happen

within the ﬁrst 10 years by subtracting 2% of the initial principal.

The adjusted equation becomes

A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t ⫺ 0.02(50 000)

or A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t ⫺ 1000.

Applying a vertical shift to the original amount function can reveal the

effect of this penalty.

The function q(x) represents the adjusted amount function for the

Lakeland account. It is unclear from the graph which account will reach

$80 000 ﬁrst. Apply algebraic reasoning to decide.

Lakeland Savings Bond (penalty adjusted)

A ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t ⫺ 1000

80 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t ⫺ 1000

81 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.0625)t Add 1000 to both sides.

1.62 ⫽ (1.0625) t

Divide both sides by 50 000.

log 1.62 ⫽ log (1.0625) t

Take the common logarithm of both sides.

log 1.62 ⫽ t log 1.0625

log 1.62

t ⫽ __

log 1.0625

⬟ 7.96

The Lakeland account will reach $80 000 in value after 7.96 years, after

adjusting for the early withdrawal penalty.

Northern Equity Mutual Fund

A ⫽ 50 000(1.03)2t

80 000 ⫽ 50 000(1.03)2t

1.6 ⫽ 1.032t

log 1.6 ⫽ log (1.03)2t Take the common logarithm of both sides.

log 1.6 ⫽ 2t log 1.03

log 1.6

t ⫽ __

2 log 1.03

⬟ 7.95

The Northern Equity account will reach $80 000 in value after 7.95 years.

Since the time difference between these two accounts is so small, it does Reasoning and Proving

Representing Selecting Tools

not really matter which one is chosen, from a purely ﬁnancial perspective.

Other factors may be considered, such as the additional ﬂexibility Problem Solving

afforded by the Northern Equity account. If the township ﬁnds itself in Connecting Reflecting

Communicating

a deﬁcit situation (where expenses exceed revenues), for example, and if

some of the money in reserve is required for other, more urgent, purposes,

then the Northern Equity account may be preferable.

>

Different technology tools and strategies can be used to construct

mathematical models that describe real situations.

A good mathematical model

• is useful for both interpolating and extrapolating from given data in

order to make predictions

• can be used, in conjunction with other considerations, to aid in

decision making

Exponential and logarithmic equations often appear in contexts that

involve continuous growth or decay.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 403

Communicate Your Understanding

C1 Refer to Example 1. Two regression models were proposed and one

was found to be better.

a) What was the basis for rejecting the quadratic model?

b) Consider a linear model for the data. Is it possible to construct a

line that ﬁts the given data reasonably well?

c) Would a linear model be valid for extrapolation purposes?

Explain why or why not.

C2 Explain the difference between curve-ﬁtting and mathematical

modelling. Identify any advantages either procedure has over the other.

C3 Refer to Example 2. Suppose that instead of an early withdrawal

penalty, the investment agency provids a bonus of 2% of the principal

if it is not withdrawn before 10 years have elapsed. How could this be

reﬂected using a transformation, and when will it apply?

A Practise

For help with questions 1 to 3, refer to Example 1. 3. Refer to the two exponential models developed

1. Plans for Decimal Point call for a highway in Example 1:

t

_

off-ramp to be built once the town’s population P ⫽ 1006(1.016)t P ⫽ 1000 ⫻ 2 43.5

reaches 6500. When should the off-ramp be built?

a) Use both models to predict

2. The town historian is writing a newspaper article i) the town’s population after 100 years

about a time when Decimal Point’s population

ii) how long it will take for the town’s

was only 100. Estimate when this was.

population to reach 20 000

b) Do these models generate predictions that

are identical, quite close, or completely

different? How would you account for

any discrepancies?

For help with questions 4 and 5, refer to Example 2. 5. Suppose two other investment options are

4. Suppose that the Reasoning and Proving available for Decimal Point’s reserve fund:

Lakeland Savings Representing Selecting Tools

Muskoka

Bond group waives Problem Solving Investment Rural Ontario Guaranteed

the early withdrawal Connecting Reflecting Option Investment Group Certificate

1

penalty. How might Communicating

Interest 6 _ % compounded 6% compounded

2

this affect the Rate semi-annually monthly

investment decision for the town?

1% of initial principal

Provide detailed information. Conditions no penalty penalty if withdrawn

before 10 years

considered? Justify your reasoning.

6. Use Technology The table gives the surface 8. Refer to question 7. Suppose that a penalty

area of seawater covered by an oil spill as a for early withdrawal of 5% of the initial

function of time. investment is applied if the withdrawal occurs

within the ﬁrst 4 years.

Time (min) Surface Area (m2)

a) Write an equation for the adjusted value of

0 0

the investment as a function of time.

1 2

2 4

b) Describe the effect this adjustment would

3 7

have on the graph of the original function.

4 11 9. Use Technology

5 14

a) Prepare a cup of Reasoning and Proving

6 29 Representing Selecting Tools

hot liquid, such as

coffee, tea, or hot Problem Solving

a) Create a scatter plot of surface area versus

water. Carefully Connecting Reflecting

time. Describe the shape of the curve. Communicating

place the cup

b) Perform the following types of regression on a stable surface in a room at normal

to model the data: room temperature.

i) linear b) Record the temperature of the liquid as it

ii) quadratic cools, in a table like the one shown. Collect

iii) exponential (omit time 0 for this several data points.

regression)

Record the equation for the line or curve Time (min) Temperature (°C)

of best ﬁt in each case. 0

2

c) Assuming that the spill is spreading

4

isotropically (equally in all directions),

which model do you think makes the

most sense for t ⱖ 0? Explain why.

c) Create a scatter plot of temperature versus

d) Use the model that you chose in part c) time. Describe the shape of the curve.

to predict

d) Create the following models for the data,

i) the size of the oil spill after 10 min using regression:

ii) the length of time it will take for the i) quadratic

spill to reach a diameter of 30 m

ii) exponential

e) Describe any assumptions you must make.

Record the equation for each model.

7. A $1000 investment earns 8% interest, e) Which of these is the better model? Justify

compounded quarterly. your choice.

a) Write an equation for the value of the f) Use the model that you chose in part e) to

investment as a function of time, in years. estimate how long it will take for the liquid

b) Determine the value of the investment after to cool to

4 years. i) 40°C

c) How long will it take for the investment to ii) 30°C

double in value?

iii) 0°C

Justify your answers and state any

assumptions you must make.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 405

10. Chapter Problem Decimal Point is hosting ✓Achievement Check

Summer-Fest: a large outdoor concert to

celebrate the start of summer. The headline 11. Use Technology The table shows the population

act is a rising rock group from Australia. growth of rabbits living in a warren.

Live, from Australia:

0 16

Koalarox!

1 18

Featuring

2 21

Rocco Rox on lead guitar! 3 24

Boom Boom Biff on drums! 4 32

When: July 1, 8:00 p.m. 5 37

6 41

Where: Integer Island

7 50

is responsible for setting various acoustic and A warren is a den where rabbits live.

electronic instruments to ensure a rich and

balanced sound. The difference in two sound

a) Create a scatter plot of rabbit population

levels, 1 and 2, in decibels, is given by the

()

versus time.

I

logarithmic equation 2 ⫺ 1 ⫽ 10 log _2 , b) Perform the following types of regression to

I I1

where _2 is the ratio of their intensities. model the data:

I1 i) linear

a) Biff’s drum kit is miked to produce a sound

ii) quadratic

level of 150 dB for the outdoor venue. The

maximum output of Rocco’s normal electric iii) exponential

guitar ampliﬁer is 120 dB. What is the ratio Record the equation for the line or curve of

of the intensities of these instruments? best ﬁt in each case.

Explain why Rocco’s signal needs to be c) Assuming that the rabbit population had

boosted by a concert ampliﬁer. been steadily growing for several months

b) After a few heavier songs, the band plans before the collection of data, which model

to slow things down a bit with a couple of best ﬁts the situation, and why?

power ballads. This means that Rocco will d) Use the model to predict when the population

switch to his acoustic guitar, which is only will reach 100.

one ten-thousandth as loud as his normally e) Do you think this trend will continue

ampliﬁed electric guitar. By what factor indeﬁnitely? Explain why or why not.

should the sound crew reduce Biff’s drums to

balance them with Rocco’s acoustic guitar?

CONNECTIONS

You first compared sound levels using the decibel scale in Chapter 6.

Refer to Section 6.5.

C Extend and Challenge

12. a) Find some data on the Internet, or elsewhere, 14. Use your data from question 13. A piecewise

that could be modelled by one or more of linear function is a function made up of two

the following: or more connected line segments. Could the

• a line of best ﬁt data be modelled using a piecewise linear

function? If so, do so. If not, explain why not.

• a quadratic curve of best ﬁt

• an exponential curve of best ﬁt 15. Math Contest A cyclist rides her bicycle

1 uphill, _

over a route that is _ 1 level, and _

1

b) Describe the nature of the data. 3 3 3

c) Use Technology Perform regression analysis downhill. If she covers the uphill part of the

for each type of curve. Record the equation route at a rate of 16 km/h, and the level part at

in each case. How well does each line or a rate of 24 km/h, what rate would she have to

curve ﬁt the data? travel during the downhill part of the route in

order to average 24 km/h for the entire route?

d) Which is the best model and why?

e) Pose and solve two problems based on the 16. Math Contest A circle with radius √ 2 is

data and your best model. centred at the point (0, 0) on a Cartesian

plane. What is the area of the smaller segment

13. Use Technology

cut from the circle by the chord from (⫺1, 1)

a) Find some data on the Internet, or elsewhere, to (1, 1)?

that could be modelled by a logistic curve.

17. Math Contest The quantities x, y, and z are

b) Describe the nature of the data. z

positive, and xy ⫽ _ . If x is increased by 50%,

c) Perform logistical regression analysis. 4

Record the equation. How well does each and y is decreased by 25%, by what percent is

line or curve ﬁt the data? z increased or decreased?

e) Pose and solve two problems based on the

data and your best model.

CONNECTIONS

Certain types of growth phenomena follow a pattern that can be modelled by a logistic function, y

c

which takes the form f(x) ⫽ __ , where a, b, and c are constants related to the conditions

1 ⫹ ae⫺bx

of the phenomenon, and e is a special irrational number, like π. Its value is approximately 2.718.

The logistic curve is sometimes called the S-curve because of its shape.

Logistic functions occur in diverse areas, such as biology, environmental studies, and business,

0 x

in situations where resources for growth are limited and/or where conditions for growth vary over time.

Go to www.mcgrawhill.ca/links/functions12 and follow the links to learn more about logistic functions

and logistic curves.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 407

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