ChangeinEstimatesRatingTarget

Coal
India Ltd

At inflexion point
TheoverhangofGovernmentsFollowonPublicOffer(FPO),thePresidential
directivetosignFSAswithpowerproducersandlowermarketlinkedprices
have resulted in Coal India underperforming the indices over the last one
year. We believe the impact of the above is already factored in the
underperformance of the stock. Realisations under eauction sales and
washed coal sales are near their bottom, and any increase in global coal
prices would lead to higher realisations for CIL. The recent price hikes
announcedbythecompanyindicatesitsabilitytopassontheincreasedcosts
tomaintainprofitability.Withadividendyieldof4.9%(dividendexpectedto
increaseyoy),downsideforthestockwouldbelimited.Earningsareexpected
toimproveFY15onwardsonthebackofhighervolumes,marginalincreasein
eauctionpricesandpricehikestakenbythecompanyduringtheyear.Atthe
CMP, company trades at 5.2x FY15 EV/EBIDTA, lower than its historical
averageof7.8x.Wevaluethecompanyat6.5xFY15EV/EBIDTAandarriveat
apricetargetofRs323.

Recent price hikes to offset cost increase

Rating:
Target:

CMP:

Upside:

Offtake growth expected at 3% yoy in FY14E

Sector:

Financialsummary

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

December30,2013

FY14E
706,805
3.5
171,957
24.3
165,959
(4.4)
26.3
10.8
3.3
6.6
32.3
47.4

Metals & Mining

Sector view:

Neutral

Sensex:

21,194

52Weekh/l(Rs):

374/238

Marketcap(Rscr):

178,563

6mAvgvol(000Nos):

2,739

Bloombergcode:

COALIB

BSEcode:

533278

NSEcode:

COALINDIA

FV(Rs):

10

PriceasonDec27,2013

Companyratinggrid
LowHigh
1

EarningsGrowth

CashFlow

B/SStrength

Valuationappeal

Risk

Sharepricetrend

CoalIndiamanagedtoproduce274.7mntons(+3.7%yoy)andofftakestood
at 298.6mn tons (2% yoy) for the period AprilNovember 13. This is below
managementguidanceduetofewoneoffslikehightemperatureinQ1FY14
and Cyclone Phailin in Q3 FY14. We expect CIL to end the year with a
productionvolumegrowthof3.9%yoyandanofftakevolumegrowthof3%
yoyto480mntons.Weestimateproductiongrowthtopickuponthebackof
commissioningofnewminesfromH2FY15.
FY13
683,027
9.4
180,836
26.5
173,563
17.4
27.5
10.3
3.7
6.5
39.0
54.7

Rs323
Rs283
14.2%

CILhaswitnessedanincreaseincostsduetothederegulationofdieseland
anincreaseinemployeecosts.Tomitigatetheincreaseincosts,CILoverthe
last one year has announced price rationalization exercises, thereby
protectingmargins.Onaccountofthepricehikesandanincreaseinvolumes,
we expect EBIDTA/ton to increase from Rs318/ton in FY14 to Rs377/ton in
FY15.ThehikeindicatesCILsabilitytoincreasepricestoprotectitsmargins
andcontradictsthemarketsreservationsaboutitspricingpower.

Y/e31Mar(Rsm)
Revenues
yoygrowth(%)
Operatingprofit
OPM(%)
ReportedPAT
yoygrowth(%)
EPS(Rs)
P/E(x)
Price/Book(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
RoE(%)
RoCE(%)

BUY

FY15E
754,914
6.8
201,991
26.8
190,659
14.9
30.2
9.4
2.9
5.2
32.8
48.3

FY16E
794,190
5.2
217,305
27.4
205,939
8.0
32.6
8.7
2.5
4.5
31.0
46.0

CoalIndia

120

Sensex

100
80
60
40
Dec12

Apr13

Aug13

Dec13

Shareholdingpattern
Promoters

Institutions

Others

100 %

50

Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13

Research Analyst:

TarangBhanushali
research@indiainfoline.com

CompanyReport

Coal India Ltd

CIL to miss its coal offtake target of 492mn tons in FY14

Coal India managed to report a strong volume growth of 6.1% in FY13 after
registering flat volumes in the previous two years. The strong sales volume
growth was largely led by liquidation of inventory on the back of higher
availability of railway rakes and a 3.8% yoy increase in production. The
company has guided for a production target at 482mn tons and offtake at
492mntonsinFY14onexpectationsofhigherrakeavailability.Webelievethe
companywouldcontinuetomissbothitstargetasH1FY14volumeswerenot
encouraging.

CoalIndiamanagedtoproduce200.5mntonsandofftakeforthehalfstoodat
224.4mntonsinH1FY14.CoalIndiasproductionanddispatchgrewby4.7%
yoy and 4.5% yoy, respectively, in H1 FY14 and are lower than the target
productionanddispatchby2.9%and1.2%.CoalproductioninQ1FY14washit
due to restriction on movement of explosives, high temperature in May and
earlyarrivalofmonsoons.CoalproductioninMayfellonaccountofreduced
working hours imposed by the Odisha state government due to a heat wave
during the month. This impact was offset to some extent by the strong
performance in Q2 FY14. Production in Q2 FY14 jumped by 10% yoy and
dispatchgrowthtooremainedstrongat7.2%yoy.However,numbershavenot
beenencouragingoverthelasttwomonths.
Monthlycoalproductionvolumeshasbeenlower
thantargetforthefirstsixmonthsofFY14
60

FY13

FY14

FY14target

(mntons)

CILhasguidedforaproductiontarget
at482mntonsandofftakeat492mn
tonsinFY14onexpectationsof
higherrakeavailability

CoalIndiasproductionanddispatch
grewby4.7%yoyand4.5%yoy,
respectively,inH1FY14andare
lowerthanthetargetproductionand
dispatchby2.9%and1.2%

Dispatcheshavebeen3.8%lowerthanthetargetfor
theperiodAprNov13
50

FY13

FY14

FY14target

(mntons)

50
40
40
30
30

20

20
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

Production in October was lower by 2.3% yoy to 35mn tons and dispatches
declined sharply by 8% yoy to 38.8mn tons. The company had suffered
productionlossinOctoberduetoCyclonePhailin,whichaffectedthekeycoal
producing states of Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal. Though production
growth resumed in November to 4.3% yoy, dispatches degrew by 1.8% yoy.
Overall production growth for the period AprilNovember 13 stands at 3.7%
yoyat274.7mntonsandthatofsalesstandsat2%yoyat298.6mntonsover
thesameperiod.

Overallproductiongrowthforthe
periodAprilNovember13standsat
3.7%yoyat274.7mntonsandthatof
salesstandsat2%yoyat298.6mn
tonsoverthesameperiod

Coal India Ltd

Withthecompanymissingitstargetforthefirsteightmonths,CILhasreduced
its production target for FY14 from 482mn tons to 475mn tons. But we still
expect CIL to miss its new production growth target of 5% yoy and offtake
targetof5.7%yoyforFY14.Weexpectcoalproductiontoincreaseby3.9%yoy
to 470mn tons against the companys target of 475mn tons and offtake to
increase by 3.1% yoy to 480mn tons against the target of 492mn tons. The
companyhasalreadyliquidatedcoalinventoryof23.9mntonsinthefirsteight
months and hence the jump from liquidation of coal would be lower for the
restoftheyear.
Productiontogrowto3.9%yoyto470mntonsin
FY14
500

Weexpectcoalproductionto
increaseby3.9%yoyto470mntons
againstthecompanystargetof
475mntonsandofftaketoincrease
by3.1%yoyto480mntonsagainst
thetargetof492mntons

Offtaketoincreaseby3.1%yoyto480mntons
550
(mntons)

(mntons)
500

450
450
400
400
350

350

300

300
FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14E

FY15E

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14E FY15E FY16E

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

Increase in realisations restricted by lower e-auction prices

CoalIndiasaveragerealisationtoppedoutinQ4FY12andhasbeendeclining
overthelastoneyeardespitethepricehikestakeninQ4FY12.Thedeclinein
ASPshasbeenlargelyduetothedeclineinpricesofeauctionandwashedcoal
prices. With a sharp correction in international thermal coal prices, prices of
CoalIndiasmarketlinkedsaleshavedeclined.Eauctionpriceshavegradually
declinedfromRs2,852/toninQ4FY12toRs2,307/toninQ4FY13.Washedcoal
prices too have been lower on a yoy basis. Adjusted for yearend incentives
frompowercompanies,ASPshavedeclinedby5%overthelastoneyear.FY13
realisationswerehigherby3.1%yoyagainstthe10%pricehiketakenforFSA
sales.

CoalIndiahaswitnessedanincreaseincostsduetothederegulationofdiesel.
Asaresult,thecompanyinMay13hasannouncedanincreaseinitsprices.It
also decided to rationalise its prices according to the market conditions. The
companyincreasedpricesoflowestgrade(G17)coal,withGrossCalorificValue
(GCV) between 2,200Kcal/Kg and 2,500Kcal/Kg, by 11.1% from existing
Rs360/tontoRs400/ton.PricesofGrade6coal,withGCVbetween5,500and
5,800Kcal/Kg, were increased 10.3% from Rs1,450/ton to Rs1,600/ton. For
premiumgradeorhighgradecoaltherewillbeareductioninpricesby12.5%.
As a result of this rationalisation, average price realisation would increase by
4.7%andwouldaddRs25bntothecompanysrevenueinFY14.

FY13realisationswerehigherby3.1%
yoyagainstthe10%pricehiketaken
forFSAsales

Coal India Ltd

Further in December, the company increased prices for coal produced by its
Subsidiary, Western Coal Fields (WCL) and revised prices of raw noncoking
coal sizing charges and rapid loading charges. CIL currently charges Rs39
77/tonforsizingandRs20/tonforusageofrapidloadingsystem.CILhashiked
thesechargesbyRs1225/tonforsizingandRs6/tonforrapidloading.Dueto
this revision, CIL will earn additional revenue of approximately Rs1.97bn for
thebalanceperiodofFY14.Inaddition,WCLhashikeditspricesby10%.This
willbeapplicableforthermalcoalofbandG6toG17underthegrosscalorific
value(GCV)mechanism.Duetothisincrease,WCLwillearnadditionalrevenue
of ~Rs1.4bn for the balance period of FY14. These hikes are likely aimed at
neutralizing the impact of costlier fuel. The impact of the above hikes, when
annualized,couldfurtheradd~1.7%toCILrevenues.
ASPincreasecurtailedat0.3%yoyinFY14Edueto
weakmarketlinkedrealisations
1,600

(Rs/ton)

ASPtoppedoutinQ4FY12duetohighereauction
pricesandincentivesfortheyear
1,600

1,700

WCLhashikeditspricesby10%,due
tothisincrease,itwillearnadditional
revenueof~Rs1.4bnforthebalance
periodofFY14

(Rs/ton)

1,550

1,500

1,500

1,400
1,450

1,300
1,200

1,400

1,100

1,350

1,000

1,300

900

Q2FY14

Q1FY14

FY14E FY15E FY16E

Q4FY13

FY13

Q3FY13

FY12

Q2FY13

FY11

Q1FY13

FY10

Q4FY12

FY09

Q3FY12

700

Q2FY12

1,250

800

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

The impact of the above rationalisation exercise on overall ASPs would be

lowered by a decline in its eauction sales. We believe that eauction and
washed coal prices would continue to remain weak in the near term. In our
view, global coal prices are likely to remain in a narrow range from current
levels and therefore, eauction coal prices should witness a similar trend.
Though a significant decline in eauction ASPs from current levels is unlikely,
wedonotexpectanyupwardmovementtoo.Eauctionpricesdeclined2%yoy
inFY13andweexpectittodeclinefurtherby14.5%yoytoRs2,175/toninFY14
beforeaminorreboundof2%inFY15.Wealsoexpectbeneficiatedcoalprices
todeclineby5%yoyinFY14andthenreboundby2%inFY15.Asaresultofthe
above, ASPs for Coal India would increase marginally by 0.3% in FY14 to
Rs1,473/tonand3.5%inFY15toRs1,525/ton.

ASPsforCoalIndiawouldincrease
marginallyby0.3%inFY14to
Rs1,473/tonand3.5%inFY15to
Rs1,525/ton

Coal India Ltd

Share of market linked sales volume to decline

Overthelastoneyear,CoalIndiahasreduceditseauctionsalesvolumeand
has been more focused on meeting the requirements of power companies.
Shareofeauctionsalesoftotalsalesvolumedeclinedfrom11.8%inFY12to
10.6%inFY13.Themanagementhasguidedforflatgrowthineauctionsales
at4850mntonsinFY14,reducingtheshareto10.2%.Thegrowthinwashed
coalsales,whichhasbeenstagnantoverthelastfewyears,witnesseda16.5%
yoydeclineinFY13.Weexpectgrowthinsalesofbeneficiatedcoaltobeflat
over the next two years at 14mn tons and its share to reduce from 3.9% in
FY12to2.8%inFY15.

%shareoftotalvolumes

Volume

(%)

14

12

2
FY16E

FY15E

16

FY14E

5
(%)

FY13

10

FY16E

10

FY15E

20

FY14E

11

FY13

30

FY12

12

FY11

40

FY10

13

FY09

50

%shareoftotalvolumes

(mntons)

FY11

(mntons)

18

FY10

14

FY09

Volume

60

washedcoalsalesvolumetoremainflatoverthe
nexttwoyears

FY12

Eauctionvolumestoremainstagnantdueto
increaseinsuppliestopowercompanies

Themanagementhasguidedforflat
growthineauctionsalesat4850mn
tonsinFY14,reducingtheshareto
10.2%.

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

Signing of new FSAs would reduce incentives in the near term

To increase the investments and a revival of the power sector, a Presidential

DirectivewasissuedbytheMinistrytoCILon17thJune13forsigningofFSAs
foratotalcapacityof78,000MWduringtheremainingfouryearsof12thPlan
subjecttofulfillmentofallformalities.Actualcoalsupplieswould,however,be
availablewhentherequiredlongtermPowerPurchaseAgreements(PPAs)are
tiedup.Supplyofdomesticcoaltotheseprojectshasbeenrestrictedto65%,
65%,67%and75%duringthesefouryears,keepinginviewtheavailabilityof
coal.TomeetitsbalanceFSAobligations,CILmayimportcoalandsupplythe
same to the willing power plants on cost plus basis. Power plants may also
directlyimportcoalthemselves,iftheysoopt.

CILhadkeptadeadlineof31stAugust13tosigntheFSAswiththeconcerned
parties. However, with pressure from the Government it continued to sign
FSAsafterthat.Outofthetotal173FSAspending,157FSAshavebeensigned
so far for a capacity of 71,145MW, in addition to FSAs signed in respect of
power plants commissioned before 31st March 09. The company has been
focused on supplying coal to power plants to boost power production in the
country.ThecumulativeofftaketothepowersectorduringtheperiodApril
Sept13stoodat195mntons.

Coal India Ltd

Supplyofcoaltopowercompanies
Year
FY11
FY12
FY13
H1FY14

Committedqty
underFSA(mntons)
334.5
344.4
375.8
222.8

Despatched Achievement
(mntons)
(%)
304.2
91
312.1
91
344.4
92
194.5
87

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

Coal India earns incentives from power companies for supplying coal more
than the trigger level of the annual contracted amount. According to the old
formatforFSA,CILiseligibleforincentivesifitsuppliesmorethan90%ofthe
annual contracted quantity and under the new format, prepared in 2012, CIL
will be eligible for incentives if it supplies more than 80% of the contracted
quantity. Over the last two years, CIL has managed to collect Rs10bn in FY12
andRs13bninFY13asincentivesfromthepowerplayers.Incentivesaccounted
for6.8%ofPATinFY12and7.5%ofPATinFY13.CoalIndiassupplyhasalready
been lower than the target set in H1 FY14 at 87%, which is below the 92%
achieved in FY13. We believe going ahead incentives would reduce as the
threshold limit to earn incentives would be quite high compared to the
previoustwoyears.

CoalIndiassupplyhasalreadybeen
lowerthanthetargetsetinH1FY14
at87%,whichisbelowthe92%
achievedinFY13.

EBIDTA/ton to jump yoy in FY15E

CILscostshaverisensharplyoverthelastoneyearduetoanincreaseindiesel
costs and contractual mining costs. Diesel costs have jumped as the
Government has deregulated bulk diesel sales. Stores and spares per ton of
coalsoldjumped6%yoyinFY13andisexpectedtoincreasefurtherby9%yoy
inFY14.WeexpectdieselpriceforbulkbuyerstoincreasemarginallyinFY15
andexpectstorescostpertontoincreaseby4%yoy.Contractualexpensestoo
increasedby14%inFY13andweexpectittobehigherby10%yoyinFY14and
5%yoyeachoverthenexttwoyears.
StoresandcontractualexpensestojumpinFY14

170

Stores

Employeeheadcountwouldcontinuetoreduce
overthenextthreeyearsduetoretirement
425,000

Contractual

(Rs/ton)

150

400,000

130

375,000

110

350,000

90
325,000
70
300,000

50

275,000

30
FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14E

FY15E

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14E FY15E FY16E

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

Coal India Ltd

The impact of higher wage cost would be marginally offset by an increase in

salesvolume.Weexpectcostspertontoincreaseby4.1%yoytoRs1,155/ton
inFY14andremainflatinFY15.EBIDTA/tonisexpectedtodeclineyoyinFY14
as the impact of price hikes taken by CIL would be offset by lower market
linked sales revenue, lower incentives from power players and an increase in
costs.WeexpectEBIDTA/tontodeclinetoRs318/toninFY14andthentojump
toRs377/toninFY15.Theincreaseinmarginsisonaccountofthefullimpact
ofthepricehikesannouncedandhighervolumes.
Costspertontoincrease4.1%yoyinFY14dueto
highdieselcosts
1,200

Costperton

yoychng
(%)

(Rs/ton)

1,100

30

1,000
900

20

300

(Rs/ton)

250

200

150

(5)

800

400
350

10

WeexpectEBIDTA/tontodeclineto
Rs318/toninFY14andthentojump
toRs377/toninFY15

Impactofhighercostswouldbemarginallyoffset
bythepricehikesannounced;butEBIDTA/tonto
decline12%yoyinFY14E

25
15

100

(10)
(15)

FY15E

FY14E

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09

700

50

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14E

FY15E

FY16E

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

Debtor days to peak out in Q3 FY14

CILs debtor days have been constantly rising over the last four years due to
delayinpaymentsfromdebtriddenpowercompanies.Debtorsfurtherjumped
inH1FY14duetothealtercationbetweenCILandNTPCoverthequalityofthe
coal. Debtor days increased from 25 days in FY11 to 56 days in FY13 and are
expected to rise further in FY14. Debtors increased from Rs34bn in FY11 to
Rs105bn in FY13 and further to Rs113bn in Q2 FY14. To counter the rising
debtors CIL has started to recover from its major debtors. CIL has started
deducting up to 1525% of the upfront payments for new supplies by its
consumerstorecoverthedues.Asaresult,totaloutstandinghascomedown
fromahighofaboutRs130bninAugust13to~Rs110bninNovember13.The
companyexpectstoreducethetotaloutstandingtoRs90bnbyendFY14.We
expectdebtorstoaccountforRs113bnbyendFY14andtodecreasemarginally
overthenexttwoyears.

Totaloutstandinghascomedown
fromahighofaboutRs130bnin
August13to~Rs110bninNovember
13.Thecompanyexpectstoreduce
thetotaloutstandingtoRs90bnby
endFY14

Coal India Ltd

Negatives priced in; Valuations attractive

Coal India has underperformed the indices over the last year due to the
overhang of Governments Follow on Public Offer (FPO), the presidential
directive to sign FSAs with power producers and lower market linked prices.
We believe the impact of the above is already factored in the
underperformanceofthestock.CILhaswitnessedanincreaseincostsdueto
thederegulationofdieselandanincreaseinemployeecosts.Tomitigatethe
increaseincostsCILoverthelastoneyearhasannouncedpricerationalization
exercise,therebyprotectingmargins.Onaccountofthepricehikesannounced
and the increase in volumes, we expect EBIDTA/ton to increase from
Rs318/ton in FY14 to Rs382/ton in FY15. The hike indicates CILs ability to
increasepricestoprotectitsmarginsandcontradictsthemarketsreservations
aboutitspricingpower.

CIL managed to produce 274.7mn tons (+3.7% yoy) and offtake stood at
298.6mntons(2%yoy)fortheperiodAprilNovember13.Thishasbeenbelow
the management guidance due to few oneoffs like high temperature and
Cyclone Phailin. We expect CIL to end the year with a production volume
growthof 3.9%yoyandanofftakevolumegrowthof3%yoyto480mntons.
We estimate production growth to pick up on the back of commissioning of
newminesfromH2FY15.

Realisationsundereauctionsalesandwashedcoalsalesareneartheirbottom,
andanyincreaseinglobalcoalpriceswouldleadtohigherrealisationsforCIL.
The recent price hikes announced by the company indicates the companys
abilitytopassontheincreasedcoststomaintainprofitability.Withadividend
yield of 4.9% (dividend expected to increase yoy), downside for the stock
wouldbelimited.EarningsareexpectedtoimproveFY15onwardsontheback
ofhighervolumes,marginalincreaseineauctionpricesandpricehikestaken
by the company during the year. At the CMP, company trades at 5.2x FY15
EV/EBIDTA,lowerthanitshistoricalaverageof7.8x.Wevaluethecompanyat
6.5xFY15EV/EBIDTAandarriveatapricetargetofRs323.

Tradingbelowitsaverage1yearforwardEV/EBIDTA
EV/EBIDTA(x)

14

TomitigatetheincreaseincostsCIL
overthelastoneyearhasannounced
pricerationalizationexercise,thereby
protectingmargins

Weestimateproductiongrowthto
pickuponthebackofcommissioning
ofnewminesfromH2FY15

Realisationsundereauctionsales
andwashedcoalsalesareneartheir
bottom,andanyincreaseinglobal
coalpriceswouldleadtohigher
realisationsforCIL

Withadividendyieldof4.9%
(dividendexpectedtoincreaseyoy),
downsideforthestockwouldbe
limited.

AverageEV/EBIDTA(x)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Nov10

Apr11

Sep11

Mar12

Aug12

Jan13

Jul13

Dec13

Source:Company,IndiaInfolineResearch

Coal India Ltd

Financials

Incomestatement
Y/e31Mar(Rsmn)
Revenue
Operatingprofit
Depreciation
Interestexpense
Otherincome
Profitbeforetax
Taxes
Adj.profit
Exceptionalitems
Netprofit

Keyratios
FY13
683,027
180,836
(18,130)
(452)
87,467
249,722
(76,227)
173,495
69
173,563

FY14E
706,805
171,957
(20,012)
(461)
96,216
247,700
(81,741)
165,959
0
165,959

FY15E
FY16E
754,914 794,190
201,991 217,305
(22,037) (24,215)
(470)
(479)
105,083 114,761
284,566 307,371
(93,907) (101,432)
190,659 205,939
0
0
190,659 205,939

Y/e31Mar
Growthmatrix(%)
Revenuegrowth
Opprofitgrowth
EBITgrowth
Netprofitgrowth

Profitabilityratios(%)
OPM
EBITmargin
Netprofitmargin
RoCE
RoNW
RoA

Pershareratios
EPS
Dividendpershare
CashEPS
Bookvaluepershare

Valuationratios
P/E
P/CEPS
P/B
EV/EBIDTA

Payout(%)
Dividendpayout
Taxpayout

Liquidityratios
Debtordays
Inventorydays
Creditordays

Balancesheet
Y/e31Mar(Rsmn)
Equitycapital
Reserves
Networth
Minorityinterest
Debt
Totalliabilities

Fixedassets
Investments
Defftaxliab(net)
Networkingcapital
Inventories
Sundrydebtors
Othercurrentassets
Sundrycreditors
Othercurrentliabilities
Cash
Totalassets

FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
63,164
63,164
63,164
63,164
421,556 479,134 557,733 642,631
484,720 542,298 620,897 705,794
636
636
636
636
10,778
8,778
6,778
4,778
496,134 551,712 628,311 711,208

169,617 179,601 192,564 203,348

23,950
23,950
23,950
23,950
22,550
22,550
22,550
22,550
(342,343) (339,598) (345,841) (347,868)
56,178
49,414
52,777
55,523
104,802 113,873 103,380
97,883
216,190 223,716 238,944 251,375
(203,601) (210,689) (225,029) (236,737)
(515,913) (515,913) (515,913) (515,913)
622,360 665,209 735,088 809,228
496,134 551,712 628,311 711,208

Cashflowstatement
Y/e31Mar(Rsmn)
Profitbeforetax
Depreciation
Taxpaid
Workingcapital
Operatingcashflow
Capitalexpenditure
Freecashflow
Equityraised
Investments
Debtfinancing/
disposal
Dividendspaid
Otheritems
Netincash

FY13
249,722
18,130
(76,227)
(16,477)
175,148
(24,310)
150,837
11,625
(4,136)

FY14E
247,700
20,012
(81,741)
(2,745)
183,227
(29,996)
153,230
(0)

FY15E
FY16E
284,566
307,371
22,037
24,215
(93,907) (101,432)
6,243
2,028
218,939
232,181
(35,000) (35,000)
183,939
197,181

(2,555)
(2,000)
(2,000)
(2,000)
(104,999) (108,381) (112,061) (121,041)
(10,441)

40,332
42,849
69,879
74,140

FY13

9.4
15.4
17.8
18.1

FY14E

3.5
(4.9)
(0.8)
(4.3)

26.5
36.6
25.4
54.7
39.0
15.2

24.3
35.1
23.5
47.4
32.3
13.3

27.5
14.0
30.3
76.7

32.6
16.1
36.4
111.7

9.4
7.3
2.9
5.2

65.3
33.0

56
30
109

30.2
14.9
33.7
98.3

10.8
8.3
3.3
6.6

60.5
30.5

27.4
38.8
25.9
46.0
31.0
14.5

26.8
37.8
25.3
48.3
32.8
14.4

26.3
14.5
29.4
85.9

10.3
8.1
3.7
6.5

FY16E

5.2
7.6
8.0
8.0

FY15E

6.8
17.5
14.9
14.9

8.7
6.7
2.5
4.5

58.8
33.0

58.8
33.0

59
26
109

50
26
109

45
26
109

FY14E
0.67
1.00
0.35
0.57
2.43
32.3

FY15E
0.67
1.00
0.38
0.57
2.28
32.8

FY16E
0.67
1.00
0.39
0.56
2.14
31.0

DuPontAnalysis
Y/e31Mar
Taxburden(x)
Interestburden(x)
EBITmargin(x)
Assetturnover(x)
Financialleverage(x)
RoE(%)

FY13
0.69
1.00
0.37
0.60
2.57
39.0

Recommendationparametersforfundamentalreports:
BuyAbsolutereturnofover+10%
MarketPerformerAbsolutereturnbetween10%to+10%
SellAbsolutereturnbelow10%

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