The early years

Articles
Fifty years of civil aero
gas turbines

Civil aviation has grown because of the discovery and development of the gas turbine.
The underlying principles of the gas turbine
were described in British Patent Number
1833 "A method for rising inflammable air for
the purposes of producing motion and facilitating metallurgical operations". This patent
was taken out by John Barber in 1791, about
the time of the French Revolution. It took
some 150 years before the principles
described by Barber were turned into products by Frank Whittle and others, illustrating
how wide the gap often is between an idea and
a working prototype.
Prior to Frank Whittle's work, many
attempts had been made to demonstrate a gas
turbine producing positive power. Among
these was the attempt of the Norwegian,
Aegidius Elling (1903), whose machine had a
rotor design similar to that of Sir Frank
Whittle. The German, Stolze (1900-1904)
had a gas turbine which incorporated a multistage axial compressor and a multi-stage axial
turbine, but the machine apparently never
rotated. The German, Holzwarth (19061908) had a two-stage Curtis turbine built by
the Swiss, Koerting (1903-1913). The French
duo, Armengaud and Lemale (1903-1905)
had an internal combustion gas turbine which
had a radial compressor and a single stage
impulse turbine wheel. This project apparently did result in excess power, but also included
the injection of steam. The project was abandoned in 1909 when Armengaud died. The
American, Stanford Moss (1903-1904) had a
design very similar to those of the French.
This project was also abandoned. During this
period, a number of patents were registered,
and a considerable experimental activity was

Riti Singh

The author
Riti Singh is Professor of Gas Turbine Engineering,
Department of Propulsion, Power and Automotive
Engineering, the School of Mechanical Engineering,
Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford, UK
Abstract
Based on a lecture prepared as part of the celebration of
Cranfield University's 50th anniversary. After briefly
reviewing the early years, including Cranfield University's
entry into this technology, discusses the nature of this
industry, Some of the technology drivers, including environmental concerns, are examined to provide a background against which the development and the future of
the industry can be considered. This is followed by a brief
survey of some of the possible new civil aero gas turbine
applications over the next 50 years, both the very likely
and somecuriosities.Finally,the changes that are likely to
occur within the industry as a result of wider economic and
political trends are considered, as well as the implications
for those working within the industry. The development of
the civil aero gas turbine has contributed, in large measure, to today's, US$ 300 billion civil aviation industry and
is rightly seen as one of mankind's major engineering
achievements. A single paper cannot do justice to this
industry.

While the views expressed in this paper are my

own, I am greatly indebted to many colleagues in
industry, research establishments and universities,
both nationally and internationally. Cranfield
benefits from its privileged association with many
airforces and airlines, as well as our important links
with the manufacturing industry and research
associations. It is the tasks which we undertake for
our sponsors that give us the opportunity to develop our professional interests.
Among the many who have helped me in the
preparation of this paper, I would specially like to
offer thanks to Mr Alec Collins, Mr Derek Cook,
Mr James Berry, Mr Peter J. Johnston and Mr
Dean Roberts. I would like to acknowledge the
generous assistance of Rolls-Royce on this, and
many other occasions.

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology

Volume 68 Number 4 1996 pp 3-19
MCBUniversityPress ISSN 0002-2667

Fifty years of civil aero gas turbines

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology

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Volume 68 Number 4 1996 3-19

under way. It was the Norwegian, Elling, who

is credited with having run, in 1903, the
world's first gas turbine to give excess power.
These early attempts, though important in
the subsequent successful development of the
gas turbine, failed to establish an industry.
The gas turbine industry today is over 50
years old and many see it as a "sunset industry". It will later be argued that the gas turbine
"revolution" continues.
The gas turbine is one of three major
"prime movers", the others being steam
turbines and piston engines. Nearly all industrial activity and transportation relies on
power from prime movers. The inherent high
power-to-weight ratio available from gas
turbines, ensured that gas turbines would first
find their niche and then gain supremacy in
aerospace applications.
Sir Frank Whittle, born in 1907, already as
a young man in the 1920s, had the vision of
aircraft flying above the weather. This vision
led him to the jet engine, a variant of the gas
turbine. Frank Whittle took out his patent,
British Patent No. 347,206 in January, 1930.
Whittle's first jet engine ran on 12th April
1937. Whittle was then just 30 years old.
Whittle combined scientific genius with engineering talent and great design insight. These
characteristics gave him the confidence to
persist in the face of opposition and lack of
recognition. Another of Whittle's undoubted
strengths was his training and education.
Whittle himself says that: "I must point out
that a factor which contributed greatly to the
work has been the very fine training I have
received in the Royal Air Force. Of my 21
years service, I have spent ten years under
training, mostly engineering. In this, I regard
myself as having been very fortunate, and I
hope that the outcome will do something to
suggest that such a degree of training should
not be as exceptional in the future as in the
present."
The magnitude of his achievement can
perhaps be appreciated by recognizing that
the world's three major "prime manufacturers" of gas turbines, namely Rolls-Royce,
Pratt and Whitney and General Electric all
started their gas turbine business based on
Whittle's W2/700 gas turbine.
The W2/700 was used by Rolls-Royce to
launch the Welland, which was followed by the
Derwent, Nene and Tay. Pratt and Whitney
entered gas turbines soon after the Second
4

form the basis of their J42. General Electric's

first gas turbine, the 1 -A, from which the J31
was derived, was based directly on Whittle's
W2/700 gas turbine. Whittle's early, simple
engine eventually resulted in today's large and
complex industry. Indeed, Whittle recalls
showing Lord Hives, of Rolls-Royce, his engine
and stressing the simplicity of his engine, only
to hear Lord Hives comment: 'We'll soon
design the bloody simplicity out of it!"

The Cranfield connection

In November 1941, the Ministry of Aircraft
Production established the Gas Turbine
Collaboration Committee. Whittle states: "Dr
H. Roxbee Cox, who was the official of the
Ministry of Aircraft Production and had been
closely associated with gas turbine development from early 1940, was primarily responsible for the formation of this committee, and
was its chairman from its formation until he
became chairman and managing director of
Powerjets Ltd in 1944." Powerjets undertook
the research and development of Whittle's
engines, and Whittle acknowledges the very
considerable contribution of Dr H. Roxbee
Cox.
The advances in aircraft design, and particularly the advent of the jet engine during the
Second World War, led the British Government to consider the formation of an elite
"College of Aeronautics" to help the British
aircraft industry to refocus its technology after
the war. The committee that studied this need
was headed by Roy Fedden and included Dr
H. Roxbee Cox. Dr Roxbee Cox was a member of the original Board of Governors of the
College of Aeronautics set up at Cranfield in
1946 as a result of the Fedden Report.
Dr Roxbee Cox later received a life peerage, becoming the Lord Kings Norton of
Wootton Underwood. He is Cranfield University's first and only Chancellor.
Cranfield has therefore the proud tradition
of having been involved with gas turbine
technology from the very beginnings of the
university. Today, Cranfield has one of the
largest university-based gas turbine activities
anywhere, spanning research in materials and
coatings; compressors; combustors and turbines; gas turbine performance; diagnostics;
life-cycle costing; design and simulation
covering both aero and land-based gas turbines. Cranfield's gas turbine research and
postgraduate and continuing professional

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development courses are held in high esteem

both nationally and internationally.

turbine, followed by the early civil jet-powered

aircraft, such as the Comet and the Boeing
707. T h e early 1970s saw the introduction of
the supersonic civil airliner, the Concorde,
powered by the Olympus 593 jet engine. The
Anglo-French Concorde was an important
example of international collaborative programmes which were to become increasingly
important for both military and civil gas
turbines. The early 1970s also saw the launch
of the wide-bodied aircraft: the Boeing 747,
the DC10, and the Lockheed L1011. The
Boeing 747, in particular, marked the start of
the mass civil air transport market, with
leisure travel becoming more important than
business travel.
An important measure for the success of an
aeroplane is its revenue-earning capacity or
productivity, defined by the seat miles available per year.
The improvement in engine technology
over this period has increased the aircraft
productivity of aeroplanes such that an aeroplane purchased in 1950 would have a productivity of about 20 per cent of that of the
Tristar L1011. Large aircraft, such as the
Boeing 747-300 and Boeing 747-400 have
productivities of about 160 per cent of that of
the Tristar (see Figure 1). These benefits have
resulted very substantially, because of the
improvements in gas turbine technology.

The nature of the industry

The launch of a large, civil gas turbine
requires between US$ 500 million-2,500
million. The cumulative cash flow becomes
positive, typically between 15 and 25 years
after the initial investment. The risks are so
large that many famous engineering companies have either not survived or had to become
absorbed into other larger, surviving gas
turbine companies. In the UK, companies
such as Blackburn, Napier, Bristol, Armstrong-Siddeley and De Havilland, all proud
engineering names, have not survived as
independent gas turbine companies, though
many of them are part of today's Rolls-Royce.
One may well ask, why do major corporations
take such long-term risks and exposure, and
why do some of the world's best engineers and
managers put their own reputations, and that
of their organizations, in potential jeopardy?
Besides the obvious importance of gas
turbines for military applications, the total
global market for power systems is very large
indeed. For the period 1991-2000, the total
power systems market (excluding nuclear,
hydro, distribution and transmission) is estimated to be US$ 814 billion. The market for
power generation is beginning to exceed the
combined market for civil and military aero
gas turbines. However, much of the technology is generated within the aero gas turbine
research environment.
While the "primes" (GE, Pratt and Whitney and Rolls-Royce) are increasingly driven
by commercial criteria, the importance of gas
turbine technology is such that many governments in the newly developed countries, and
indeed, in the developed countries, are willing
to heavily subsidize this industry. This is
substantially because of the improvement in
the technology and manufacturing infrastructure that has followed national investments in
gas turbines. Even though the barriers to
entry into gas turbine manufacture are high,
new companies have and will continue to
attempt to break the Anglo-American dominance within this field.
Within civil aero gas turbines, the last 50
years has seen enormous changes. The early
1950s saw the introduction of the first commercial gas turbine powered aircraft, the
Viscount, powered by the Dart Turboprop gas

Some technology drivers

Prior to a brief consideration of the changes in
gas turbine technology which have delivered
the advances in improving civil aircraft, it may
be useful to consider how aero gas turbines

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work. For this purpose, Whittle's W2/700

engine (see Figure 2), which formed the basis
of the launch of the gas turbine activity of the
three primes, is used as an example. Incidentally, as part of Cranfield University's 50th
Anniversary, Cranfield University ran a
Whittle W2/700 gas turbine in February
1996. This engine had been an exhibition
engine at Cranfield University since the early
1950s, and had not run for over 40 years.
The major components of the Whittle
W2/700 gas turbine consist of a compressor, a
combustor, a turbine and a propulsion nozzle.
The function of the machine, when used as a
jet engine, is to increase the pressure at the
exit from the turbine that drives the compressor. This increase in pressure can be used
either to propel the gases leaving the turbine
through a propulsion nozzle, generating
thrust, or alternately, to produce shaft power
by the expansion of these gases past a turbine.

In Whittle's jet engine, "a power turbine" is

not included, as the engine is a pure jet
engine. A very large proportion of the total
power which a gas turbine generates is
required internally within the engine to compress the air. For Whittle's gas turbine, the
power required to drive the compressor was
about 3,000 hp. If the exhaust gas power,
which produced, a "static thrust" of about
1,400 lbf force, were converted to shaft
power, then the shaft power would have been
1,700 hp. This is very much less than the
power required to drive the compressor. As a
consequence, Whittle's gas turbine, and all
gas turbines, are very susceptible to small
changes in the efficiencies of the major components such as compressors and turbines,
and pressure losses between intakes, diffusers,
combustors and nozzles. Relatively small
changes in component efficiency can render
an engine wholly uncompetitive. If the compressor and turbine efficiencies of the Whittle
gas turbine were reduced by 15 per cent, then
the Whittle gas turbine would have failed to
self-sustain itself, and would of course have
failed to produce any net output.
A modern gas turbine, as promised by
Lord Hives, is much more complicated.
The heart of the engine is the "core",
where further compression, after the fan,
combustion and expansion, takes place. The
turbines within the core have to produce
work, not only to drive the compressors
within the core, but also the "fan" which
compresses the bypass air. The specific fuel
consumption of an aero gas turbine is
inversely proportional to the propulsive
efficiency multiplied by the thermal efficiency. High propulsive efficiency requires high
bypass ratio, while high thermal efficiency
requires a high overall pressure ratio, high
component efficiencies and high turbine
entry temperature.
It is the energy extracted from the core
which provides the power to drive the fan,
and hence allows the realization of a high
bypass ratio engine. The "core specific
power" is crucial both in reducing engine
weight and in providing energy to drive the
higher bypass ratio fans that lead to higher
propulsive efficiency. Over the past 50 years,
the core specific power has risen by at least a
factor of five over the early engines of
Whittle. Theoretically, there is a considerable improvement yet to come, and high
temperature, high performance
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demonstration programmes have shown that

the core power can be increased to factors of
eight to ten in relation to the early engines.
Core power is principally a function of turbine rotor inlet temperature. An absolute
limit to specific core power would be reached
when the turbine rotor inlet temperature
reaches the limit of the maximum or "stoichiometric" temperature that results when
air is burnt with hydrocarbon aviation fuels.
This temperature is about 2,600K. In practice, it may be necessary to limit maximum
turbine rotor inlet temperature to a value
somewhere between 2,000K and 2,100K,
because beyond these temperatures, the
production of the combustion-generated
pollutant, NOx rises rapidly (see Figures 4
and 5).

The increase in core specific output has

been hard won by very large investments in
high temperature technology, covering both
the materials capability and turbine vane and
blade cooling. From the early engines, which
had a turbine entry temperature at take-off, of
about l,000K, we have today's advanced
turbofans operating with take-off turbine
entry temperatures of about 1,700K.
Demonstration engines have been run at
temperatures in excess of 2,100K. Material
capability improvement alone accounts for
some 300K in approximately 50 years, averaging about a modest 6K per year, in spite of
very large investment. In the early 1960s,
cooled blade technology was introduced
which has allowed an increase of a further
400K, averaging about 12K per year. The
increase in core specific power benefits the
economics of the aircraft first by reducing the
weight of the engine, and then by increasing
the propulsive efficiency of the power plant
because of the possibilities of increasing
bypass ratio.
The overall efficiency of a gas turbine
propulsion unit is defined as the useful thrust
work divided by the heat input (see Figure 6).
The useful thrust work equals the product of
the thrust and aircraft velocity. The overall
efficiency is the product of the core thermal
efficiency and the propulsive efficiency. The
core thermal efficiency is defined as the
power produced by the core divided by the
heat added, and the propulsive efficiency is
defined as the thrust multiplied by the aircraft velocity divided by core power. The

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early turbo-jets achieved overall efficiencies

of about 20 per cent. Low bypass ratio
engines, which became available in the early
1960s, improved propulsive efficiency, and
hence overall efficiency, to about 25 per cent.
Current high bypass ratio turbofans, because
of both improvements in core thermal efficiency and propulsive efficiency, achieve
overall efficiencies of 35 per cent. Ultra high
bypass ratio engines such as the advanced
ducted propulsor and prop fan may be able to
achieve even higher overall efficiencies, in the
region of 50 per cent perhaps sometime
during the next 25 years. It needs to be
noted, however, that as bypass ratios are
increased, the engine drag and weight
increase. These increases can offset much of
the potential improvement offered by
improvements in propulsive efficiency.
Substantial improvements have also been
achieved in component efficiencies, sometimes expressed as "polytropic efficiencies".
The thermal efficiencies of current engines in
service is approximately 45 per cent, based on
polytropic efficiencies of 88 per cent at cruise
conditions. From now and during the early
part of the next century, it is likely that
engines will enter service with thermal efficiencies approaching 50 per cent, based on
polytropic efficiencies of 92 per cent and
increases in cycle pressure ratio and turbine
entry temperature. During the second quarter
of the twenty-first century, thermal efficiencies of 55 per cent may be realized. This
implies component polytropic efficiencies of
94 per cent and cruise turbine entry tempera-

tures between l,600K and 1,800K (see Figures 7 and 8).

Over the last 50 years, the cumulative effect
of component, cycle and propulsive efficiencies has been an improvement of about 50 per
cent, averaging approximately 1 per cent per
year. The improvement in component, cycle
and propulsive efficiency taken over the whole
period is approximately equal. However, the
introduction of high bypass ratio turbofans
1970s saw a dramatic improvement in propulsive efficiency.
Cycle efficiency has improved steadily over
the years, as improved blade and disc materials became available, along with the application of blade cooling technology allowing
designs of higher pressure ratio and higher
turbine entry temperatures to be realized.
While component efficiencies saw some
improvement in the early years, much of the
improvement in component efficiencies came
after the late 1970s, when large powerful
computers and very advanced test facilities
allowed the aerodynamics of these components to be explored in detail.
An example of improvements in component efficiencies is the "wide chord" fan
blade. The realization of the wide chord fan
blade required improvements in aerodynamic
design techniques based on the detailed
understanding of the flow about the blade, an
innovative mechanical design, research into
the manufacturing techniques necessary to
manufacture a hollow wide chord fan blade,
and improvements in the prediction methods
associated with the mechanical integrity of the
blade.
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The redesign, by Rolls-Royce, of the

RB211 "clappered" blade by a wide chord
blade with improved boundary layer separation control and an improved outlet guide
vane reduced the estimated component loss
from 12 per cent to 8 per cent, improving the
fan blade polytropic efficiency from 88 per
cent to 92 per cent (as shown in Figure 9).
This design had to be backed up by advances
in manufacturing technology such that the
skin of the hollow titanium blade could be
supported off a super-plastically formed rib.
The resulting design proved superior both
aerodynamically and in terms of its ability to
resist bird-strike. The change to the wide
chord blade resulted in very substantial
improvements, first to Rolls-Royce's RB211
family of engines, and subsequently to other
engines. This is a good example of an innovative design and sustained investment in appropriate technologies, resulting in a competitive
advantage.
The temperatures and forces associated
with gas turbine related machinery are very
high indeed. As an example, a single high
pressure turbine blade has a centrifugal force
equivalent to the weight of a heavy truck, and
produces the power output of ten times higher
than a family car. If released at the root while
moving vertically upwards, and if no restraining forces were placed in the path of the
released blade, the energy contained within
the blade would propel it some 10 kilometres
high. The local gas temperature about this
blade, which carries these high loads and
produces this large power output, can be as
much as 200K higher than the melting point
of the high temperature alloy used to manufacture the blade.

It is the very large investment in research

and development undertaken over many years
that has delivered today's high efficiency, high
bypass turbofans and today's cost efficient
aircraft. In spite of the pressures to reduce
weight and improve efficiency by the use of
very high pressures, stress levels and temperatures, the civil aero gas turbine industry has
had an excellent record in terms of safety.
Additionally, engine lives have increased
substantially, and "in-flight shutdown rates"
have been reduced progressively.

Environmental concerns
Noise
During the 1960s, the level of noise around
airports became progressively less acceptable.
Much of the world's fleet was based on pure
jet aircraft, and jet noise increases very rapidly
as the exhaust gas jet velocity is increased.
Airport noise is sometimes expressed as an
integrated exposure indicator based on noise
and movement, and noise and index number
contours are used to estimate airport noise
exposure. In the early 1970s, the advent of the
high bypass ratio turbofan substantially
reduced the noise from the fleet such that by
the mid-1980s, the world fleet comprised
approximately 50 per cent high bypass turbofans. Many of the earlier low bypass ratio
engines are being progressively replaced by
modern high bypass ratio turbofans, and this
will further reduce noise levels from aero gas
turbines. By the time the 600-800 seater
aircraft come into service in the first quarter
of the next century, it is likely that aircraft
noise will begin to approach, or even exceed
engine noise, a concept that would have
seemed strange in the 1970s and 1980s.
Combustion generated pollutants
Concern for the environment, in recent years,
has begun to focus much more on combustion
generated pollutants. Current legislation is
concerned with the landing and take-off cycle,
which includes taxi in and out (26 minutes) at
very low power, final approach (4 minutes) at
low power, take-off (0.7 minutes) at maximum power, and climb (2.2 minutes) at high
power.
Smoke (soot) as a pollutant for civil aero
gas turbines has very nearly been eliminated
because of improvements in fuel air preparation. This is an area where Cranfield
University has for many years made a
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substantial research contribution, and continues to do so.

Unburnt hydrocarbons and carbon
monoxide are pollutants that are produced at
low power. There have already been substantial reductions in the level of unburnt hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide as measured by
the landing and take-off cycle defined by the
International Civil Aviation Organization
(ICAO).
Oxides of nitrogen are produced at high
power settings. As engine technology has
improved, both the pressure ratio and turbine
entry temperature have been progressively
increased. Consequently, it appears that the
reduction in oxides of nitrogen has been
modest when compared with earlier engines.
However, the application of a constant level of
combustor technology would have resulted in
a substantial increase in the level of NOx
produced.
Current legislation as formulated by ICAO
does not define any limits for cruise NOx.
Whilst there is no evidence that civil subsonic
aircraft are likely to damage the ozone layer,
the possibility needs to be explored. The level
of oxides of nitrogen released by civil aircraft
are very small when compared to the oxides of
nitrogen produced by industry, power generation and ground transport. However, NOx
generated by aero engines is released at high
altitude, and in that important regard, differs
from NOx produced at ground level, at least
as far as considerations regarding the ozone
layer are concerned.
One of the studies underway at Cranfield
University seeks to quantify the amount of
NOx generated by an aircraft flying a particular route, and how this NOx mixes within the
earth's atmosphere. This "systems approach"
includes a model of an aircraft, a model of an
appropriate aero gas turbine, the combustor
technology employed, and the aircraft flight
management. The systems approach integrates all the above issues in a computer
simulation of the aircraft, engine, combustor
and the flight route. The computer
programme is initially being used to study
flights of a Boeing 747-400 for long ranges
such as London to Tokyo. The NOx generated during the flight is distributed along an
emissions track between London and Tokyo.
The average number of flights per day are
used to establish the level of NOx emitted per
day. The atmospheric model then calculates
the mixing of the NOx, both in terms of lati-

tude and longitude, and latitude and pressure

(or altitude). This integrated approach allows
"scenario studies" to be undertaken to identify appropriate engine configurations and
cycles, including the effect of engine degradation, on cruise NOx emissions.
Engines that are optimized for take-off
NOx, the only circumstance currently covered by ICAO legislation, are not necessarily
the best in terms of cruise NOx. It is very
likely that the cruise NOx will prove to be the
more important parameter, particularly for
aircraft flying very long ranges. As the aircraft
flies, the fuel already burnt makes the aircraft
lighter, and the most efficient way to fly the
aircraft is to fly it at progressively higher altitudes as more fuel has been burnt. Therefore,
very long range aircraft, for example, flying
from Tokyo to London, often fly at relatively
high altitudes towards the end of their flight,
precisely when they are near the North Pole
where the ozone layer is closest to the earth's
surface.
Such studies will contribute to our understanding of the interplay between the various
technologies and help with the formulation of
appropriate legislation. In particular, such
studies need to be undertaken prior to the
design definition and launch of the next generation of the civil supersonic transport, as
this aircraft is likely to fly substantially within
the earth's ozone layer.
Over the last 15 years, the gas turbine
industry has made a very large investment in
developing the technology necessary to
reduce combustion generated pollutant emissions. All the engine manufacturers have
developed their combustors to meet the
increasingly tighter emissions legislation, and
are working on technologies to meet future
changes in the emissions legislation that will
come into force in the year 2008. Cranfield
University has a world class combustion
research team with capabilities in modelling
and advanced laser diagnostics, technology
and test facilities unique within the university
sector. While the university works with many
major users and manufacturers, its "University Technology Centre in Gas Turbine Combustion" is supported by Rolls-Royce. The
ultra-low NOx technologies developed by
Rolls-Royce have demonstrated NOx emission levels at one-tenth the current conventional technology, and were tested at Cranfield (see Figure 10).
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Ultra-low emissions combustors will be necessary if civil supersonic transport aircraft,

flying within the earth's ozone layer, are ever
to become a reality. Cranfield has been
involved in a major research programme, on
ultra low NOx combustors for a future civil
supersonic transport aircraft, for the New
Energy Development Organization (NEDO)
of Japan.

The development and future of the civil

aero gas turbine industry
The world airline industry is a $300 billion
business and accounts for between 0.5-1 per
cent of the Western world's GDP. The supporting civil aero engine industry has sales
today of some $15 billion' per annum. The
four aero engines that power the Boeing 747
"Jumbo Jet" are priced at some $7 million
each and represent about 20 per cent of the.
aircraft purchase price. This is a cyclic capital
industry, and its fortunes relate to the growth
in the world economy.
The growth of the air travel business has
been dramatic. Since 1946 the airline industry
has averaged a compound annual growth rate
of 10.4 per cent per annum. Over the last 25
years the industry has grown at 6.6 per cent
per annum. This growth in world air travel is
driven by two factors, the growth of the world
economy (i.e. affordability), and the costs of
travel.
The growth of people's wealth has been a
significant impetus to airline growth. As
economies recovered after the Second World
War and world trade was freed up, the
demand for fast, safe and economic travel

created a demand for air transport. In the last

20 years, prices have reduced to such an
extent that a large industry has built up
around the leisure air travel sector. Some
observers suggest that the industry is maturing. It is true that overall growth rates are
slowing down. However, in 1990, on average
a UK or USA citizen took at least one air trip
per year. For countries like Brazil, Mexico
and Indonesia, one person in ten took a trip.
For China and India, the ratio is one person in
75. Clearly, there is much growth potential for
this industry from the demand side of the
equation.
That the real cost of travel has reduced is
illustrated by the change of airline yields.
"Yield" as used by the airline industry is
defined as the revenue generated per passenger mile, or unit fares. In 1946, it would have
cost 4,000 for a return flight across the
Atlantic in 1996 economics, today it can be
done at 5 per cent of the cost. The early yield
reductions were principally a result of
improvements in technology in both the
airframe and engine. Aircraft have also
become much more productive through a
combination of larger capacity and range
capability brought about by advances in
technology discussed earlier, mainly improvements in overall efficiency, in specific power
and cost of ownership.
More recently, the airlines have utilized
information technology to develop sophisticated customer reservation systems and socalled "yield management systems". The end
result is that on average, aircraft now fly fuller
and the economic benefits can be shared with
the fare-paying customer. Industry forecasters predict that yields will reduce at 1 per
cent per annum for the next 20 years. This
affects the engine manufacturers in two ways.
First, the engine needs to be designed to burn
less fuel and cost less to maintain. Second,
the price for the powerplant will be expected
to decrease. If the engine manufacturers
cannot deliver these essentials, then the
forecast of five to six per cent per annum
annual growth rate for the airline industry
will be jeopardized.
One of the greatest drivers of technological
innovation is competition. Incidentally, even
though the civil aero gas turbine industry can
rightly be thought of as a mature industry, this
does not result in identical designs, as is readily apparent if the engines of the three primes
(GE, PW and RR) for the Boeing 777 are
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compared in even the most cursory way. The

civil aero engine sector is intensely competitive. One of the reasons for this is the structure of the market. The three prime manufacturers have to sell their products to the three
aircraft manufacturers in the first instance.
Increasingly, over the years, aircraft have been
made available with a choice of engine manufacturer. Where the market size is big enough,
all three engine manufacturers will have an
engine available. The aircraft manufacturers
and the airlines have benefited from this
competition. The airlines have low prices for
their powerplants and this feeds through to
reduced fares. As a result, the overall industry
grows which benefits the airframers. An
example of this is the competition between the
Airbus A340 and the Boeing 777. The Boeing
777 is available with a choice of three engines,
and intense competition between the engine
manufacturers has driven prices down. This
helped Boeing win several competitions over
the Airbus A340, which has only one engine
supplier (CFM 56-5).
The downside to this state of affairs is that
there may be too much competition in the
engine sector. There are recent examples of
engines being given "free" to airlines by certain engine manufacturers. It is difficult to see
how profits can be made in the long term, if
this sales tactic continues, even with the large
aftermarket business generated by jet engines.
The problem is compounded by the trend to
two powerplants per airframe, even on large
aircraft. Engine unit volumes will grow slower
as a result.
In the longer term, economic realities will
catch up with the engine industry. An outcome may be that at best there will be two
engine manufacturers per aircraft type. This
does not mean that only two manufacturers
will survive. Partnerships are likely to develop
whereby two primes will collaborate in certain
sectors. An example of this is the International Aero Engines' collaboration between RollsRoyce and Pratt and Whitney (with other
partners) to produce a 25,0001b thrust engine
for the 150 seater aircraft sector. A very recent
example (May 1996) was the surprise
announcement made by GE and Pratt and
Whitney that they had agreed to the joint
development of a 320-374kN (72,000-84,000
lbf) turbofan for the Boeing 747x. Boeing's
statement that the 747x will be offered with a
choice of engines, implies no exclusivity as

the yet to be launched A340 - 600. The only

other credible engine for the Boeing 747x
would be an optimized Rolls-Royce Trent
800.
A lot of interest in the aero engine industry
is focused on the headline grabbing original
equipment sales successes of the major aero
engine manufacturers. For instance, the
recent multi-billion dollar order from Singapore International Airlines for Rolls-Royce
engines hit the national news. However, the
improvements in the in-service operations of
engines are having a fundamental impact on
the industry. First, engines are getting more
reliable. This is measured by "in-flight shut
down rates". The very high reliability of
current engines is the reason for the move to
two powerplants per aircraft, even for extended range operations over water.
Another issue of more long-term consequence is the expected trend in engine "life on
wing". This is the average time an engine will
stay on an aircraft before being removed for a
service. When an engine is removed, it is
usually stripped down and worn parts are
replaced. This provides the basis for the
engine manufacturers' aftermarket, a high
profit margin business which is forecast to
grow with the total engine fleet. However,
with the steadily improving life of aero
engines, it could be that an engine will not
require a major service for the duration of the
aircraft's 25 year life. Consider that in 50
years' time, the oldest engine in use will not
have entered service until 25 years from now.
The result could be the partial or complete
loss of the engine manufacturers' aftermarket
business. Companies would have to make
compensating higher profits on the original
equipment sale. More interestingly, the loss of
the aftermarket revenues based on decades of
prime incumbency eliminates a major market
entry barrier. Perhaps this is when a new wave
of companies will gain entry into the business.
The risks are high in the aero engine business. Technical, commercial and geo-political
considerations all impact the industry. Technical risks have progressively been reduced by
the use of "common cores", "demonstrators",
"technology on the shelf", validated design
methods and databases, computational fluid
mechanics and finite element computer techniques along with improvements in quality
assurance. Players, smaller than the primes,
may choose to reduce risk by becoming "specialist companies", such as Fiat in gearboxes,
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IHI in shafts and, perhaps, M T U in low

pressure turbines.
The issue that dominates business plans is
the large research and development costs for
producing new engines. The new engine
produced by General Electric for the Boeing
777 cost over $2 billion. Even for an organization as big as GE, this is a large exposure.
Companies have therefore endeavoured to
spread this exposure by sharing engine programmes with other companies. By reducing
the bill for each programme, the primes can
participate in more sectors and therefore
spread the risk of a technical or market failure.
However, one has to observe that this strategy
has not, so far at least, made partner companies very rich. The major European collaborators, state owned SNECMA of France and
M T U of Germany (part of Daimler-Benz
Aerospace) are both in serious financial difficulties and both have rather impatient owners.
One of the problems for these companies is
that they do not have a large spare parts base
unlike the primes who have been in the industry since its inception in the 1940s.
Recently, engine companies have been
signing long-term aftermarket agreements
with airline customers. Instead of the airline
repairing and overhauling an engine, the
manufacturer does it. The engine company
becomes more of a service provider than a
supplier of spare parts. The manufacturer
charges the airline for his powerplant usage
(i.e. usually by flying hour). This has the
advantage for the airline that their cash flows
are much more predictable with this type of
deal. This also applies to the engine manufacturer. This means that the engine manufacturer has secured more of the revenues associated with the product. The next step may be
that the supply of the powerplant itself is
wrapped into such deals. The engine manufacturer becomes very similar to a utility a
provider of power. However, this has the
problem that the engine manufacturer has to
carry a large financing burden to fund the
supply of the engine. Perhaps financing intermediaries will enter this field as has been the
case within the aircraft supply sector.
Political realities mean that the engine
companies have had to place work into countries where they wish to sell jet engines. There
was a trend in the 1980s to sign up partners to
an engine programme who could secure
enough political influence to ensure an airline
order from the partner's home country. This

strategy has had a rather patchy track record

recently as the primes have attempted to
neutralize a competitor's position with an
alliance of their own. A good example of this
is in Japan where the indigenous manufacturers have multi-relationships with the three
primes. An additional issue is that home
governments appear to have less control over
the buying decisions of their domestic airlines.
This appears to be the case as a country
matures economically. The movement by
governments to privatize their airlines has
exacerbated the situation. Offset and countertrade will continue to be used tactically, but
the trend is away from choosing partners
solely for industrial positioning reasons.

Application and design changes over the

next 50 years
"Nothing is certain, not even that" (Albert
Einstein). It is perhaps unwise to speculate
too far into the future, but the level of investment that is required in this industry ensures
that the next two or three developments are
identifiable a decade or two prior to their
launch.
The growth in passenger traffic on some
long-range routes, particularly associated with
flights to Asia Pacific from Europe and the
USA, has identified the need for a very large
passenger aircraft. These aircraft are anticipated to carry between 600 and 800 passengers over a range of 8,000 nautical miles. The
aircraft are likely to use four large turbofans,
each producing a thrust in excess of 100,000
lbf. The current engines for the Boeing 777,
namely the Pratt and Whitney PW4084, the
General Electric GE90, and the Rolls-Royce
Trent 800, would with some development
meet the specification for this very large aircraft. The limited market for such aircraft
may make it unlikely that all three engines
would be certified and offered by the airframe
manufacturer.
Somewhere towards the end of the first
quarter of the next century may see the
launch of a civil supersonic transport. The
engine used for this "Concorde replacement"
aircraft will nearly certainly be a variable cycle
engine to give low noise at take-off, combined
with high cruise specific thrust. The take-off
mode would have a high bypass ratio to
reduce jet velocity and hence noise, with the
engine reverting back to a cycle not dissimilar
to that of Concorde's Olympus 593 engine for
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about the additional installation nacelle and

interference drag penalties, and the weight of
the low pressure system, namely the turbines,
to drive the large, low speed fan, the weight of
the fan, and the size and performance of the
reduction gear. Fuel prices to date, and forecast fuel prices, are low and have reduced the
market case for this development.
We may eventually see an "all-electric gas
turbine". The power produced by the turbines in this engine would drive electric generators. The electric generator would, via
electric motors, drive the engine's fan and the
intermediate and high pressure compressors,
at their desired speeds and in their appropriate locations. The engine rotors would be
supported by electro-magnetic bearings,
removing the need for oil systems. It would be
possible to maintain the balance of the various
rotors by measuring any out of balance forces
and compensating these with varying electromagnetic fields applied to the electro-magnetic bearings. All engine and aircraft systems
would be electrical, leading to simplification
and weight reduction. It would be possible for
engines to "share" components such that a
loss in turbine output in one engine could be
compensated by sharing the turbine output
from other engines within the aircraft. Such
designs would also allow, if necessary, the
separation of the gas generator from the fan.
Finally, if in the future, the industry were to
move towards wholly laminar flow aircraft
(involving boundary layer suction), then a
distributed electrical gas turbine would give
the flexibility necessary to contemplate such a
design. The likely benefits from the combination of a very low drag aircraft and an allelectric gas turbine could be very substantial
indeed (see Figure 13).

supersonic cruise. Ultra-low, NOx combustor

technology will be an essential requirement
for this development (see Figure 11).
If the new, very large passenger aircraft
were unable to support more than one or two
engine manufacturers, the civil supersonic
passenger aircraft market will be such that
there is probably going to be room for only
one aircraft and engine. This will require
collaboration on an international basis, possibly involving all the current major airframe
and engine companies along with a number of
emerging players. This aircraft and engine will
provide technology and manufacturing experience at the forefront when it is launched,
and Europe's experience with the Concorde
places it in a position to obtain an appropriate
share in this milestone project.
Ultra-high bypass ratio engines or alternatively, propfans have been studied for some
time. It is clear that such engines could
improve the fuel consumption over the best
conventional turbofan technology by about 10
per cent (see Figure 12). Concerns remain

Design curiosities
Two unusual personal design offerings are
included. They are the "lift fan driven by a
single rotor double-pass turbine" and the
"two combustor variable cycle aero gas turbine" (see Figure 14). It continues to be
important to explore new design concepts,
particularly within universities who wish to
have an interest in the whole product and not
solely in individual component technologies.
The lift fan single rotor double-pass turbine
The concept is directed towards a very high
thrust to weight-ratio lift fan. If realized, the
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low pressure turbine, they operate at an

equilibrium temperature defined by these
two temperatures, the velocities within the
rotor, and the relative time spent within each
of the two partial admission stages. This
would allow the selection of a combustor exit
temperature, such that the turbine rotor did
not require any cooling, even though the
high pressure-stage operated at relatively
high turbine entry temperatures. While the
efficiency of the doublepass turbine would
be lower than that of conventional turbines,
the lift fan would be used only for the short
time period required for vertical take-off and
landing.

lift fan could be buried within a wing because

it has an unusually short length. The relatively
few parts associated with this lift fan engine
should result in a low-cost solution.
The unusual aspect of this proposal is that
the lift fan is driven by a double-pass tip
turbine. The double-pass tip turbine is
designed such that the static pressure at the
inlet and exit is essentially the same, for both
the stages. This allows two partial admission
turbines to be designed sharing the same
circumference. The "high pressure turbine" is
formed by the first sector of the whole turbine, the "low pressure turbine" being formed
by the remainder of the circumference.
As the rotor blades experience both the
high temperature gases of the high pressure
turbine, and the low temperature gases of the

The "two combustor variable cycle aero gas

turbine"
As aero gas turbine designers seek solutions
where the duty of the gas turbine is very different during different parts of the operating
regime, variable cycle aero gas turbines either
offer substantial advantages over fixed geometry machines, or provide the only possible
solution. The introduction of variable geometry within the hot section of the gas turbine to
achieve variable cycle operation is viewed with
trepidation because of lifting, weight and cost
implications.
An alternative approach would be to have a
second combustor following the high-pressure
turbine, which would now sit between the first
combustor and the second combustor (see
Figure 15). This design would allow the
variation of the volume flow to the high pressure turbine and the intermediate (or low
pressure) turbine by varying the exit temperatures from each of the two combustors.
Hence, a variable geometry engine could be
achieved without introducing any mechanical
features within the hot section to vary the
engine cycle. This concept has the added
advantage that by burning within two combustors, the maximum temperatures reached

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would be lower than a conventional single

combustor design, and would hence result in
lower levels of oxides of nitrogen. This concept has not been examined in detail.

Concluding remarks
The wider economic and political trends will
continue to influence the airlines and manufacturers. Historically, we have seen the primacy of the nation state. There were "flag"
carriers and national champion manufacturers. The trend to a more liberal world trading
regime has inevitably had an impact on the
industry. Some observers say we will see large
regional power blocs, while others foresee
nations fragmenting into local ethnic or religious areas.
Within the airline industry, we have seen
cross-border alliances and even ownership of
foreign carriers. The major engine companies,
until recently, have not made significant
strategic moves outside their home countries.
Essentially, the securing of partners at an
engine programme level was enough for
national positioning reasons. More recently,
the engine manufacturers have been more
ambitious. Pratt and Whitney was at one time
considering an equity exchange with MTU.
General Electric has said it would consider
purchasing a stake in SNECMA if the company is ever privatized. However, it is RollsRoyce that has made the most significant
strategic initiatives with its German jointventure company with BMW AG, and the
recent acquisition of the US-based Allison
Engine Company.
All the three primes would argue that they
consider such strategic actions make financial
sense, but there are likely to be three other
imperatives. First, primes fear that the world
may consolidate into protectionist regional
power blocs. To produce business cases with
adequate rates of return, engine programmes
have to be sold on a global scale. Therefore, a
presence in each region is important to minimize the risk of exclusion from key markets.
Second, government support for engine
technology development is not global but
national primes wish to secure as much state
aid for their programmes as possible. This can
only be guaranteed by ownership of the
indigenous manufacturer. Finally, a stake in
the home manufacturer may open lobbying
opportunities to secure sales from the countries airlines. The effect of relationships at the

16

engine programme level can often be weakened by indigenous manufacturers allying

with competitors in another thrust sector. To
overcome this, the primes could opt for control of the company.
In the long term, one could imagine the
primes becoming more and more fragmented.
The corporate "brain" may reside in the
current home country. However, research and
development could be done in another country and manufacturing in yet another. The
company would optimize its operation using
the criteria of a country's competitive advantage, i.e. funding availability, factor conditions and market potential. The downside to
this vision is that corporate "experience" is
likely to be lost as programmes are shunted to
the best economic environment. This is an
important issue, since the industry's knowhow is highly biased towards "learning-bydoing" rather than fundamental
breakthroughs in technology, as in the pharmaceutical industry.
As "learning-by-doing" becomes increasingly more difficult in tomorrow's new global
environment, the importance of replacing
this with the very best education which
encompasses all aspects of the relevant gas
turbine technologies, including design, will
prove a challenge. Sir Frank Whittle's observations about the contribution of his own
education and training, will be ever more
relevant in the future. Those engineers aspiring to be the future leaders within this industry will require an understanding of the competitive business issues and be able to work
with international teams dispersed sometimes over many countries.
The capability to deliver to agreed and ever
tighter, timescales will be a necessary discipline. The time to launch a new aero-gas
turbine has been historically longer than that
required to launch a new aircraft. In order to
reduce their risk, aeroengine manufacturers
have been reorganizing the period from a
commitment to an engine, to certification, to
bring this time in line with the time required
for the launch of an aircraft. The ability to
manage the process in the shortest possible
timescale will prove to be of very significant
commercial advantage. The timely completion of the various phases towards certification create the opportunity to review the
implications of the design on the product lifecycle costs and competitiveness, reducing
much of the risk.

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The ability to create collaborations that tap

into the knowledge of customers, suppliers
and others on a global basis will be one of the
skills to cultivate. The organization and participation in networks that tap new knowledge
to create value, and international relationships
that add to this value, will be among the new
competences that engineers on the way to the
top will need to acquire.
Engineers aspiring to manage this industry
will need personal qualities such as integrity
and openness, co-operation and team spirit,
commitment and ability to work under pressure. As the risks associated with the technology used are reduced, the ability to innovate
conceptually, in design, product life-cycle and
business definition will become more important. Such skills and attitudes are anchored in
the confidence which experience and education have to provide.
There will be very few universities with
either the background, or perhaps the interest
to invest in such a difficult and specialized
task of educating people at this level. Such
programmes will thrive when supported by
world class organizations, who see the investment in their future technology leaders as
crucial to their success, and a "shared learning environment" as part of that investment.
The delivery of such programmes was at the
heart of Cranfield's mission at its inception,
and will remain a challenge into the future.
The primes will source their research,
design, development and manufacture on a
global basis, from those who have earned the
reputation of being able to deliver cost competitive, quality input to a complex international organization. The globalization of this
industry will have many consequences for
suppliers and others who relate to this industry. Those organizations that do not have the
culture to be world class, or are unable or
unwilling to invest to become world class, will
at best become marginal players within this
industry. There will be much greater opportunities for fewer organizations associated
with this industry, working within a global
environment.
Successful suppliers will have a wide and
deep understanding of the industry, and will
need to be able to deliver integrated systems'
solutions. They will need the knowledge and
judgement to identify to clear niche winning
strategies, and the courage to invest to deliver
their long-term ambitions. These observations apply equally to universities who may

wish to influence and share the challenges,

rewards and risks of this industry into the
future.

Note on references
This paper is based on personal views. Much
of the material is either not yet available in
referenced papers, or is not in the public
domain. Nonetheless some references are
included together with related literature.

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14 Dryden, R.L., Executive Vice President Boeing

30 Lister, D.H., DRA Royal Aerospace Establishment.
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19 Harrington, L.F., Vice President General Manager of

the MD-11/Dc-10 Douglas Aircraft Company, "How
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"The UK in the global economy technology towards
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Industry, "How the manufacturers view the future",
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24 Jamieson, J.B., "Twenty first century aero-engine
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27 Kapor,L.,Vice President & General Manager

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42 Price, J.D., Airbus Industrie, "Airframe engine
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43 Ridgway, S., Customer Services Director Virgin
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Financial Times Conferences, World Aerospace and
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future demand the engine-builder's view", Financial
Times ConferencesWorld Aerospace and Air
Transport. September 1994.

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46 Rowe, B.H., "Remembrances and perspectives:

5 decades with aero engines", 39th R.J. Mitchell
Lecture, The Royal Aeronautical Society, March 1995. 60
47 The Rolls-Royce Magazine, "50 years of jet engines",
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19

Professor Riti Singh is the Head of the

Department of Propulsion, Power and
Automotive Engineering in the School of
Mechanical Engineering at Cranfield.
Prior to his arrival at Cranfield he occupied
very senior engineering positions in RollsRoyce, Asea-Stal in Sweden and Kongsberg in Norway. He also heads the Gas
Turbine Technology Centre at Cranfield.
Gas turbine engineering is one of the
most successful manufacturing fields for
Britain. It is one of the largest British
export sectors, currently exceeding US$ 3
billion per year. The UK has produced
thousands of gas turbine engines for the
world's power utilities, airlines, air forces,
navies, oil and gas companies.
Cranfield serves this high technology
industry in three ways. First, it provides
advanced post-graduate programmes.
Second, it offers an extensive short-course
programme for engineers and technologists in international organizations. Third,
it carries out research on industrially relevant scales. This university-based gas
turbine activity has served customers from
over 50 countries, and it is arguably the
largest of its kind in the world. In the opinion of the editor, Cranfield houses the
"Rolls-Royce" of gas turbine teaching in
the UK.