Ans. to question no.

1(i)
Year

Net Sales($)

Net sales($) + ID(Y)

Coded Year(t)

2002

50600

50851

2003

67300

67551

2004

80800

81051

2005

98100

98351

2006

124400

124651

2007

156700

156951

2008

201400

201651

2009

227300

227551

2010

256300

256551

2011

280900

281151

10

Coefficie
nts

Standa
rd
Error

t Stat

5617.66
7

8377.1
82

27093.3
3

1350.1
05

Interce
pt
X
Variabl
e1

P-value

Lower
95%

Upper
95%

Lower
95.0%

Upper
95.0%

0.6705
91

0.5213
66

13700.
1

24935.
48

13700.
1

24935.
48

20.067
57

3.97E08

23979.
99

30206.
68

23979.
99

30206.
68

Interpret the equation:

Y= a + b(t)
=5617.667+27093.33(t)

a=5617.667: The trend line intercepts the Y axis at 5617.667 that is the estimated sales for base
year (t=0) is 5617.667 thousand Dollar.
b=27093.33: If time is increased by one year the net sales will be increased by 27093.33
thousand Dollar.

Estimated Sales for 2016:

Y= a + b(t)
=5617.667+27093.33(15)

=412017.617

Ans. to question no.1(ii)

Plot net sales and fit trend line:

Plote of Net sales and Trend Line

300000
250000
200000
Net sales

Net sales+id(Y)

150000

Linear (Net sales+id(Y))

100000
50000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year

Interpretation of graph:
Here, we have drawn the scatter plot of net sales against year, we can observe that net sales is
increasing with the increase in time.

Ans. to question no.2(i)

Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Imports of
Chemical
Products(thousand
s of tons)
124
175
306
524
714
1052
1638
2463
3358
4181
5388
8027
10587
13537

Log Y
2.574031268
2.629409599
2.745855195
2.889301703
2.984527313
3.114944416
3.276231958
3.433609843
3.557386882
3.646599752
3.751202095
3.917925422
4.034949147
4.139501275

Coded
Year(t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

2.392715

Standa
rd
Error
0.0161
13

t Stat
148.49
36

Pvalue
5.84E21

Lower
95%
2.3576
07

Upper
95%
2.4278
22

Lower
95.0%
2.3576
07

Upper
95.0%
2.4278
22

0.12569

0.0018
92

66.418
22

9E-17

0.1215
67

0.1298
13

0.1215
67

0.1298
13

Coefficie
nts
Interce
pt
X
Variable
1

Import+ id
375
426
557
775
965
1303
1889
2714
3609
4432
5639
8278
10838
13788

Ans. to question no.2(ii)

Geometric Mean(GM) = b-1

= 1.335642-1 = 0.335642
So, the annual rate of increase (0.335642 * 100)% = 33.5642%

Interpretation:

Imports of chemical product increased by 33.5642% annually, that is the annual average growth
rate of Imports of Chemical Products.

Ans. to question no.2(iii)

Estimate imports for the year 2018:
Log Y= log a + log b (t)
Log Y= 2.392715 + 0.12569(24)
Log Y= Anti log (5.409275) = 256613.697
The Imports of Chemical Products for 2018 is 256613.697 (thousands of tons)

Ans. to question no.3(i)

year
quarter
2004 winter
spring

four
production quarter
production +id
total
90
341
85
56
102
115

spring

89

summer

61

fall

110

2006 winter

165

416

1.069784
4

343.75

0.989090
9

351

0.888888
9

359.875

1.003126
1

367.125

1.133129

357.25

361
1450

342.125

344.75

312
1429

341

1.035190
6

342.75

340
1379

0.909966
7

341.5

366
1371

337.375
340.5

353
1366

2005 winter

specific
seasonal
index

334.25

307
1362

fall

centered
moving
average

336
1337

summer

four
quarter
moving
averag
e

362.5

1487
spring

110

361
1625

summer

98
248

2007 winter

201

spring

142

summer

110

fall

274

2008 winter

251

spring

165

summer

125

fall

305

2009 winter

241

spring

158

summer

132

fall

299

2010 winter

265

458.625

0.907059
1

461.25

0.815176
2

459.125

1.210999
2

459.125

1.071603
6

459.25

0.890582
5

461.5

0.829902
5

467.875

1.175527
7

472.5

1.092063
5

471.25

516
1895

452.875

1.108473
6

464.5

550
1885

1.171548
1

458.5

383
1858

448.125

460

409
1834

0.822323
5

458.25

492
1840

439

460

556
1833

0.915017
5

462.5

376
1840

429.5

454.75

416
1850

1.064155
4

451

502
1819

424.75

445.25

525
1804

1.190220
6

432.75

361
1781

419.25

426.25

393
1731

410.75

0.849665
2

423.25

452
1705

0.928020
6

415.25

499
1693

389
406.25

349
1661

fall

371.75

473.75

spring

185

436
1929

summer

142

fall

333

2011 winter

282

spring

175

summer

157

1936

484

1951

487.75

533
426

fall

350

2012 winter

290

spring

201

summer

187

438

fall

400

651

Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total

Winter
1.069784
1.133129
1.064155
1.108474
1.071604
1.092063
1.09699
1.072881
8.70908

Table 2
Spring
0.989090909
0.928020566
0.915017462
0.907059144
0.890582471
0.912133891
0.869609594
0.878949927
7.290463965

485.875

1.09699

489.875

0.869609
6

493

0.827586
2

497.25

1.208647
6

504.25

1.072880
5

514.25

0.878949
9

508

452
2082

1.203503
3

500.5

541
2032

485.25

494

601
2002

0.811354
8

492

408
1976

484.375
486.5

584

1968

0.912133
9

482.25

393
1946

478

520.5

Summer
0.90996665
0.88888889
0.84966525
0.82232346
0.81517615
0.82990249
0.81135484
0.82758621

Fall
1.035191
1.003126
1.190221
1.171548
1.210999
1.175528
1.203503
1.208648

6.75486394

9.198763

Mean
Adj. mean
Seasonal index

1.088635
1.09023
109.023

0.911307996
0.912643559
91.26435589

0.84435799
0.84559544
84.5595438

1.149845
1.151531
115.1531

3.994146
4

Correction Factor = 1.00146555

Interpretation of seasonal Index:

Winter =109:
The production of pine lumber during winter season was 9.0% higher than annual average production.
Spring = 91.3:
The production of pine lumber during spring season was 8.7% lower than annual average production.
Summer = 84.6:
The production of pine lumber during spring season was 15.4% lower than annual average production.
Fall =115.2:
The production of pine lumber during fall season was 15.2% higher than annual average production.

Ans. to question no.3(ii)

Year
2004

2005

Quarter
Winter

Production
90

Production
+ ID
341

Spring

85

336

Summer

56

307

Fall
Winter
Spring

102
115
89

353
366
340

Seasonal
index
1.09023
0.91264
4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1
1.09023
0.91264

Deseasonlizes
Production (Y)
312.777908

Coded
quarter(T)
1

368.161257

363.057777

306.548532
335.708839
372.544129

4
5
6

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Summer

61

312

Fall
Winter

110
165

361
416

Spring

110

361

Summer

98

349

Fall
Winter

248
201

499
452

Spring

142

393

Summer

110

361

Fall
Winter

274
251

525
502

Spring

165

416

Summer

125

376

Fall
Winter

305
241

556
492

Spring

158

409

Summer

132

383

Fall
Winter

299
256

550
507

Spring

185

436

Summer

142

393

Fall
Winter

333
282

584
533

Spring

175

426

Summer

157

408

Fall
Winter

350
290

601
541

4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1
1.09023
0.91264
4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1
1.09023
0.91264
4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1
1.09023
0.91264
4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1
1.09023
0.91264
4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1
1.09023
0.91264
4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1
1.09023
0.91264
4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1
1.09023

368.97077

313.495808
381.570703

8
9

395.554208

10

412.726919

11

433.33631
414.591244

12
13

430.617185

14

426.918103

15

455.914956
460.453107

16
17

455.818699

18

444.657082

19

482.835649
451.280735

20
21

448.148673

22

452.935273

23

477.625192
465.039294

24
25

477.73306

26

464.761259

27

507.151113
488.887463

28
29

466.77588

30

482.500238

31

521.914073
496.225361

32
33

Spring

201

452

Summer

187

438

Fall

400

651

Coefficie
nts

Intercep
t
X
Variable
1

0.91264
4
0.84559
5
1.15153
1

495.264548

34

517.978197

35

565.334545

36

Standa
rd Error
8.2412
333.8906
7

t Stat
40.514
46

Pvalue
2.3E30

Lower
95%
317.14
23

Upper
95%
350.63
89

Lower
95.0%
317.14
23

Upper
95.0%
350.63
89

0.3884
25

14.286
34

6.23E16

4.7598
02

6.3385
53

4.7598
02

6.3385
53

5.549178

Project the production for 2019:

Year

2019

Quarter

Coded
Quarter

Estimated
Production

Seasonal
Index

Forecasted
Production

Winter

61

672.39044

1.09023

733.06053

Spring

62

677.93961

0.912644

618.71722

Summer

63

683.48879

0.845595

577.955

Fall

64

689.03797

1.151531

793.44827

Ans. to question no.3(iii)

Plot the original data:

700
600
500
400
Production+ ID

Deseasonalizes Production (Y)

300
200
100
0

Interpretation of graph:
The deseasonalize data has less fluctuation than the original data.