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MARCH / APRIL 2016

T H E D I S R U P T I O N R E P O RT

The biggest

transformation
ever

If youre a leader in todays world, whether youre a government leader or a business leader,
you have to focus on the fact that this is the biggest technology transition ever. This digital era
will dwarf whats occurred in the information era and the value of the Internet today. As leaders,
if you dont transform and use this technology differentlyif you dont reinvent yourself, change
your organization structure; if you dont talk about speed of innovationyoure going to get
disrupted. And itll be a brutal disruption, where the majority of companies will not exist in a
meaningful way 10 to 15 years from now.

HOW TO ACHIEVE A SUSTAINABLE DIGITAL EVOLUTION

This digital age is the connectivity of going from a thousand devices connected to the Internet
to 500 billion. It will transform business. It will transform our lives, our healthcare system.
Business models will rise and fall at a tremendous speed. It will create huge opportunities
probably $19 trillion in economic value over the next decade, incremental above what were
seeing today. Thats the size of the US economy, plus some.

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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T H E D I S R U P T I O N R E P O RT

...you either

disrupt or you get


disrupted

MARCH / APRIL 2016

The new era of digital globalization

THE NEW ERA OF DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION

Global flows of trade and finance are flattening, while data flows are soaring

TRADE

FINANCE

DATA

45X

growth in
data flows
20052014

1980

2014

The
new era of digital globalization
Digital technologies are changing how business is done

across borders and broadening participation


Global
flows
of
trade
and
finance
are flattening,
data flows are soaring
Source: Digital Globalization: The
New Era
of Global
Flows, McKinsey
Global Institute,while
March 2016)
SMEs

Large multinationals
Attain
truly also
globalresult
scale with
But
it will
in new
tremendous
markets and suppliers

Useso
digital
platforms to find
disruption. And this is where its
importantwhether
TRADE

customers and suppliers abroad


DATA

FINANCE

theyre
countries or companies, regardless of their sizethat you50M
either
disrupt or you get
on Facebook, 10M on Alibaba,
New strategies for products,
2M on Amazon
assets, organization
disrupted.
Probably 40% of the enterprise customers around the world
will not exist in a

45X

meaningful way ten years from now. When I said that two and three years ago, my CEO
counterparts said, Hey, John, you called the other transitions right, but Igrowth
thinkinthats way too

Startups I think now most CEOs would agree. If they dont change,
Individuals
aggressive.
they
get left behind.
20052014
data flows

>80% of tech-based startups are1980


born global

New2014
ways to work, learn, and
communicate across borders

Foreign customers, financing,

>900M have international

suppliers from day one


connections on social media
Digital technologiesCHANGES
are changing
how business
is done
DIGITAL
GLOBALIZATION
HOW
BUSINESS
IS DONE
across borders and broadening participation

SMEs
Large multinationalsGlobal flows increase economic growth
Attain truly global scale with new
markets and suppliers

10%

New strategies for products,


assets, organization

Startups

Increase in world GDP,


worth $7.8T in 2014

>80% of tech-based startups are


born global

$2.8T
GDP increase from data
flows, larger impact than
goods trade

Use digital platforms to find


customers and suppliers abroad

~50%

50M on Facebook, 10M on Alibaba,


2M on Amazon

Potential GDP boost for some


countries
by increasing
Individuals
participation in
New
ways
global flows to work, learn, and
communicate across borders

Foreign customers, financing,


suppliers from day one

>900M have international


connections on social media

Source: Digital Globalization: The New Era of Global Flows, McKinsey Global Institute, March 2016)

Global flows increase economic growth


2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

10%

Increase in world GDP,

$2.8T

~50%

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GDP increase from data

Potential GDP boost for some

T H E D I S R U P T I O N R E P O RT

MARCH / APRIL 2016

The new era of digital globalization


...technology

will become the

company. This is

about exponential
change

Global flows of trade and finance are flattening, while data flows are soaring
When many people think about this, you want to think about the intelligence of an architecture,
where you can get access to any data, any point and time you want. Its simple to describe, but
it really means youre dealing with intelligent networksa next generation of the Internet, if you
TRADE

FINANCE

DATA

will. But connecting 500 billion devices doesnt get the job done. Its the process change behind
it. So youve got technologies like cloud or mobility and cybersecurity and the Internet of Things
that are very important. Thats actually the easy part.

45X

The hard part is how do you change your organization structure? How
1980

growth in
data flows
do20052014
you change

2014

your

culture to be able to think in terms of outcomes for your customers? Its all about speed of
innovation and changing the way you do business. The majority of companies will be digital

technologies
business
is done
within five Digital
years, yet
the majority of are
their changing
digital effortshow
will fail,
which speaks
to what a CEO has
to do differently.

across borders and broadening participation

SMEs themselves. They


Large
She multinationals
or he has to think much more outside the box. They have to reinvent
Attain
trulyto
global
scale with
have
reinvent
theirnew
company.
markets and suppliers

digital
platforms
to find
Not stay doing the right thing too Use
long,
if you
will. Thats

customers and suppliers abroad

what got companies in trouble in the past. But the rate of change then was much slower.

New strategies for products,


assets,
organization
Today,
youre talking

50M on Facebook, 10M on Alibaba,

2Mfabric
on Amazon
about digitization being an integral part of the
of a companys

business strategy or the way it interfaces its supply chain with its customers. Not enabled by
technologytechnology will become the company. This is about exponential change.

Startups

Individuals

>80% of tech-based startups are


born
global
John
Chambers

New ways to work, learn, and


communicate across borders

Foreign
customers,Companys
financing,
McKinsey&
suppliers from day one

Our Insights

>900M have international


connections on social media

March 2016

GLOBAL FLOWS INCREASE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Global flows increase economic growth

10%

Increase in world GDP,


worth $7.8T in 2014

$2.8T
GDP increase from data
flows, larger impact than
goods trade

~50%

Potential GDP boost for some


countries by increasing
participation in
global flows

Source: Digital Globalization: The New Era of Global Flows, McKinsey Global Institute, March 2016)

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

HOW TO ACHIEVE A SUSTAINABLE DIGITAL EVOLUTION  1


THE NEW ERA OF DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION  2
DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION CHANGES HOW BUSINESS IS DONE  2
GLOBAL FLOWS INCREASE ECONOMIC GROWTH  3
GLOBAL DIGITIZATION

6
The new era of global digitization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
TRADITIONAL FLOWS OF GOODS AND SERVICES HAVE DECLINED  6
THE BIGGEST ONLINE PLATFORMS  7
GLOBALIZATION: THEN VERSUS NOW  9

INTERNET OF THINGS

11
The next industrial revolution: The Internet of Things . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
THE SIZE OF THE INTERNET OF THINGS MARKET 11
How will the Internet of Things impact the financial services sector? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
How will self-driving cars change our way of life? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

DIGITAL BANKING 

19
The epicenter of disruption: FinTech . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
THE FINANCIAL SECTORS MOST DISRUPTED BY FINTECH
OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS19
Neobanksthe banks of the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
TRADITIONAL VS. DIGITAL CAPEX COSTS 21
FinTech is forcing banking to a tipping point . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
FINANCIAL INNOVATION IS AT THE TIPPING POINT IN U.S. AND EU 23
PRIVATE FINTECH COMPANIES CAPITAL DEPLOYED BY SEGMENT 24
Bankings Uber moment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
COMMERCIAL BANK BRANCHES PER 100k ADULTS BY REGION 24
AT THE TIPPING POINT OF FTE REDUCTION (MILLIONS)  25
BLOCKCHAIN POSITIVES AND NEGATIVES  26
ATTRACTIONS OF BLOCKCHAIN OFFERING  27
ATTRACTIONS OF BLOCKCHAIN OFFERING  27
FORMIDABLE CHALLENGERS: MARKETPLACE LENDERS  28

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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iv

TABLE OF CONTENTS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Innovation is not a part of the banks culture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29


Who owns the future of finance? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Will disruptive technology trigger the breakup of the TBTF banks? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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GLOBAL DIGITIZATION

MARCH / APRIL 2016

GLOBAL DIGITIZATION
The new era of global digitization
McKinsey Global Institute wrote:

The rapidly growing flows of international trade and finance that characterized the 20th
century have flattened or declined since 2008.

Exhibit E1
TRADITIONAL
FLOWS OF GOODS AND SERVICES HAVE DECLINED
After 20 years of rapid growth, traditional flows of goods, services, and finance have declined relative to GDP
Flows of goods, services, and finance, 19802014
$ trillion, nominal

All flows as % of GDP

53

49

Finance

46

Services
Goods

37
32

26

24

-14 p.p.

41

23

21

22

24

22 23

24 24

6
5 5 5 6 6
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
1980

1990

27

29

29

32 32

32

35

12

10 11

2000

31

30

17
10 9 10
8 9

41 41

37

21

24

22

26

38 37 39

29 28 28

30

18

13

2007

2014

SOURCE: UNCTAD; IMF Balance of Payments; World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Traditional flows of goods, services, and finance have flattened


two decades,
the worlds
trade indigital
goods (including
finished goods, and
Yet globalization is notFor
moving
into reverse.
Instead
flows arecommodities,
soaringtransmitting
grew roughly twice as fast as global GDP as major multinationals
information, ideas, andintermediate
innovationinputs)
around
the world and broadening participation in the

expanded their supply chains and established new bases of production in countries with
low-cost labor. Global trade in goods soared from 13.8percent of world GDP in 1986 to
26.6percent in 2008 on the eve of the Great Recession. After a sharp decline and shortlived rebound, however, the goods trade has been growing more slowly than world GDP
The world is more interconnected than ever. For the first time in history,
in recent years, puzzling economists and business leaders alike. Some of this decline is
emerging
economies
aresuggests
counterparts
ondemand
more and
thanplummeting
half of global
cyclical.
Our analysis
that weak
prices for commodities
account
for nearly
three-quarters
thethe
decline
in trade.
trade flows,
and
South-South
tradeof is
fastest-growing
type of

global economy.

connection.
But trade in both finished and intermediate manufactured goods has also declined, thanks

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

to several structural forces. The makers of many finished goods are beginning to place less
importance on labor costs and more on speed to market and non-labor costs. As a result,
some production is moving closer to end consumers. Trade is also declining for many
intermediate goods such as chemicals, paper, textile fabrics, and communications and
electrical equipment. This suggests that global value chains may be shortening, at least in
part because of the cost of managing complex, lengthy supply chains.
www.canfieldpress.com
In the decade ahead, the global goods trade may continue to decline relative to world GDP.
At a minimum, it is unlikely to resume rapid growth. Not only are factor costs changing, but
3D printing and other technologies also have the potential to transform howand where

GLOBAL DIGITIZATION

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Digital platforms are key to this new era of globalization. Over the past two decades, the
largest corporations built their own digital platforms to manage suppliers, connect to
customers, and enable internal communication and data sharing for employees around
the world. But a diverse set of public Internet platforms has emerged to connect anyone,
anywhere. These include operating systems, social networks, digital media platforms,
e-commerce websites, and all kinds of online marketplaces. Their use of automation and
While
of goods
financenew
have
lost momentum,
used to
crossalgorithms drives
the flows
marginal
costsand
of adding
interactions
practically
zero, allowing
border
bandwidth
has
grown
45
times
larger
since
2005.
It
is
projected
the biggest platforms to support hundreds of millions of global users (ExhibitE4). Now users
grow
by another
nine times
in the prices,
next fiveand
years
as digitalchoices.
flows This
can more easilytosee
details
on products,
services,
alternative
of
commerce,
information,
searches,
video,
communication,
and
removes some information asymmetries so that markets function more efficiently, although it
intracompany
traffic
to surge.
can disrupt some
intermediaries
in continue
the process.

Exhibit E4

THE BIGGEST ONLINE PLATFORMS

The biggest online platforms have user bases on par with the populations of the worlds

User
on par with populations of worlds biggest countries
biggestbases
countries
Online platforms1

Active users of online platforms vs. country population


Million

Countries2

Facebook

1,590

China

1,372
1,314

India
YouTube

1,000

WhatsApp

1,000
650

WeChat
Alibaba

407

Instagram

400

United States

321

Twitter

320

Skype

300

Amazon

300

Indonesia
Brazil

256
205

1 4Q15 or latest available.


2 2015 population.
SOURCE: Facebook; Twitter; Alibaba; Fortune; Statista; Population Reference Bureau; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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GLOBAL DIGITIZATION

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Digital platforms change the economics of doing business across


borders, bringing down the cost of international interactions and
transactions. They create markets and user communities with global
scale, providing businesses with a huge base of potential customers
and effective ways to reach them.
Small businesses worldwide are becoming micro-multinationals by
using digital platforms such as eBay, Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba
to connect with customers and suppliers in other countries. Even the
smallest enterprises can be born global: 86 percent of tech-based
startups we surveyed report some type of cross-border activity. The
ability of small businesses to reach new markets supports economic
growth everywhere.
Individuals are participating in globalization directly, using digital
platforms to learn, find work, showcase their talent, and build personal
networks. Some 900 million people have international connections on
social media, and 360 million take part in cross-border ecommerce.
Over a decade, global flows have raised world GDP by at least 10
percent; this value totaled $7.8 trillion in 2014 alone. Data flows
now account for a larger share of this impact than global trade in
goods. Global flows generate economic growth primarily by raising
productivity, and countries benefit from both inflows and outflows.
The MGI Connectedness Index offers a comprehensive look at how
countries participate in inflows and outflows of goods, services,
finance, people, and data. Singapore tops the latest rankings, followed
by the Netherlands, the United States, and Germany. China has surged
from No. 25 to No. 7.
Although more nations are participating, global flows remain
concentrated among a small set of leading countries. The gaps
between the leaders and the rest of the world are closing very slowly,
but catch-up growth represents a major opportunity for lagging
countries. Some economies could grow by 50 percent or more over the
long term by accelerating participation.
Many companies grew more complex and inefficient as they expanded
across borders. But digital technologies can tame complexity and
create leaner models for going global. This is a moment for companies
to rethink their organizational structures, products, assets, and
competitors.

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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GLOBAL DIGITIZATION

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Countries cannot afford to shut themselves off from global flows, but narrow export strategies
miss the real value of globalization: the flow of ideas, talent, and inputs that spur innovation
and productivity. Digital globalization makes policy choices even more complex. Value
chains are shifting, new hubs are emerging, and economic activity is being transformed.
This transition creates new openings for countries to carve out profitable roles in the global
economy. Those opportunities will favor locations that build the infrastructure, (Digital
Globalization: The New Era of Global Flows, McKinsey Global Institute, March 2016)
Exhibit E3

Globalization: Then vs. now

GLOBALIZATION: THEN VERSUS NOW

Tangible flows
of physical goods

Flows mainly between


advanced economies

Capital- and laborintensive flows


Transportation
infrastructure is
critical for flows
Multinational
companies
drive flows
Flows mainly of
monetized
transactions
Ideas diffuse slowly
across borders
Innovation flows
from advanced to
emerging economies

McKinsey Global Institute

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

Intangible flows of
data and information

Greater participation by
emerging economies

More knowledgeintensive flows


Digital infrastructure
becomes equally
important
Growing role of
small enterprises
and individuals
More exchanges of
free content and
services
Instant global access
to information

Innovation flows in
both directions

Digital globalization: The new era of global flows

www.canfieldpress.com

GLOBAL DIGITIZATION

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Seeking Alphas Timothy Taylor wrote:

Whats the bottom line on these changes [caused by global digitization]? Its
already true that international trade in goods has shifted away from being
about final products, and instead become more a matter of intermediate
products being shipped along a global production chain. Now, information in
all its forms (design, marketing, managerial expertise) is becoming a bigger
share of the final value of many physical products.
Moreover, a wired world will be more able to buy and sell digital products.
New technologies like 3D printing will make it easier to produce many
physical products on-site, wherever they are needed, by shipping only the
necessary software, rather than the product itself. The greater ease and
cheapness of international communication will presumably strengthen many
person-to-person cross-border ties, which is not just a matter of broadening
ones social life, but also means a greater ability to manage business and
economic relationships over a distance.
Its interesting to speculate on how these shifts in globalization, as it
percolates through economies around the world, will affect attitudes about
globalization. Imagine a situation in which globalization is less about big
companies shipping cars and steel and computers, and more about small
and medium companies shipping non-standard products or services.
And imagine a situation in which globalization becomes less faceless,
because it will be so much easier to communicate with those in other
countries - as well as so much more common to visit in person as a student
or tourist. Changes in how globalization manifests itself seems sure to
shake up how economists, and everyone else, view its costs and benefits.
(SeekingAlpha, Timothy Taylor, 03/23/16)

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10

of Things?
INTERNET OF THINGS

collect and exchange data. Commonly abbreviated IoT.

The IoT Ecosystem

MARCH / APRIL 2016

The IoT ecosystem enables entities


to connect to, and control, their
IoT devices.

Analytics

Analysis

INTERNET OF THINGS

Command/RFI

In the ecosystem, an en.ty uses a


Data Storage
remote (e.g. smartphone, tablet,
etc.) to send a command, or a
request for informa.on, over a
Remote
network to an IoT device. The
device then performs the
command and/or sends
informa.on back over the
network to be analyzed and
IoT Devices
displayed on the remote. There
are mul.ple loca.ons in which
the data generated by the IoT
device
can be analyzed
and
The
Internet
of Things
(IoT), which is often touted as the next Industrial Revolution, consists of a
stored, including the cloud, a
local and
database,
on the remote,
or
vast
growing
network
of connected objects able to collect and exchange data using embedded
locally, on the IoT device itself.
Gateway

The next industrial revolution: The Internet of Things

sensors, which allow businesses,


governments,
and consumers to monitor and control remotely.
Internet
Network

From a productivity, efficiency, and innovation perspective, we believe the IoT, ultimately, will be as
transformative to society as was the Industrial Revolution, wrote BI Intelligences John Greenough

Market Drivers And Barriers

and Jonathan Camhi. By the end of 2020, we project an installed base of 44 billion IoT devices
worldwide, up from 4.2 billion in 2015. 11.2 billion IoT devices will be installed in enterprise settings,
7.7 billion in government settings, and 5 billion in consumer settings. An estimated $6 trillion will
Four Barriers

Four Market Drivers

Security
concerns
Expanded internet
be spent on IoT solutions
over the next five years, which will
lower
operating costs and increase
Privacy concerns

connectivity

Implementation problems
High mobile adoptionand businesses. BI Intelligence
productivity for governments
projects the $6 trillion investment in
Technological

Low-cost sensors
Large IoT investments

fragmentation

IoT will generate $12.6 return on investment over the next decade.

Sizing The Market

41%

24
BILLION

30

CAGR total
IoT devices
installed

25
20
15

There will be 24
billion IoT devices
installed by 2020

10
5

Devices Installed (Billions)

THE SIZE OF THE INTERNET OF THINGS MARKET

2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E


Application
Development
Device Hardware

$6 TRILLION
INVESTED

System Integration

$6 trillion will be invested


on IoT solutions over the
next five years

Amount
Spent
20152020

Data Storage
Security
Connectivity
$0

$1

$2

$3

USD (Trillions)
$14
$12

$8
$6

Total investments over


the next five years will
generate $13 trillion
by 2025

$4

USD (Trillions)

$10

$13
TRILLION ROI

$2
$0
Compound Investment
2015-2020

three entities
using IoT ecosystems
2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rightsThe
reserved.

include businesses, governments and
consumers.

ROI 2015-2025

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11

INTERNET OF THINGS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Today, there are more than 1,211 IoT companies across 22 categories, including IoT city/
infrastructure, home, toys, healthcare, fitness, jewelry, agriculture, trackers and lifestyle and
entertainment. Collectively, Silicon Valley has raised more than $17.4 billion for these IoT startups.

Data monetization is the top IoT revenue driver, but only 8% of businesses are using more than
25% of their IoT data, according to Verizon. The view has been that IoT is a mashup of complex
technologies used only by early adopters, said Mike Lanman, Verizons SVP of IoT and Enterprise
Products. In the past year, weve seen compelling examples of how IoT is being deployed by
a wide-range of enterprises, entrepreneurs, municipalities and developers to address relevant
business, consumer and public needs. Meanwhile, consumers are more willing to try new
technologies and apps that introduce a better way of life. The end result will not only give rise to
thousands of new use cases over the next two years, but will also create an accelerated pipeline for
innovation and a new economy.

Here are the five macrotrends that will dominate the IoT market in the future, according to Verizon:

In an IoT-enabled world, consumers are beginning to understand and


expect that their mobile phones can do more. In 3 to 5 years, consumers
will experience a much higher level of automation in their daily lives,
thanks largely to the ability to engage with IoT applications through a more
simplified interface. Today, 81% of IoT adopters in the public sector believe
that their citizens increasingly expect them to offer enhanced services
from data and IoT
Data monetization will become a required competency in the private
sector. Nearly 50% of businesses expect to be using more than 25%
of their data over the next 2 to 3 years. Data analytics will evolve from
descriptive data collection to a more sophisticated model of predictive
and prescriptive data analytics. As industries seek to derive meaningful
insights to benefit their customers, there will be a paradigm shift from big
data to domain experts with deep understanding of the business products
and/or programs.
Changes in the regulatory landscape will continue to bring ecosystem
partners together to help establish industry standards more quickly. An
example is the Drug Supply Chain Act, which gives drug manufacturers
until late 2017 to implement systems to electronically transfer and store
transaction histories for their prescription drugs including shipment
information across their distribution and supply chain. The law is designed
to thwart counterfeit drugs, which cost the industry $75 billion annually
according to the World Health Organization

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12

INTERNET OF THINGS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Network connectivity, low power devices and IoT platforms will


democratize innovation by creating more tools for developers and enabling
businesses to scale their IoT deployments from millions to billions of
connections more cost-efficiently using 5G, the next-generation of wireless
technology; 5G not only promises to make autonomous solutions such as
cars and robotics a reality, but will also usher in new categories of uses,
such as virtual and augmented reality for IoT deployments.
Security experts are keeping up with the development of technology
by looking to arising threat vectorssome old, some newthat will
impact IoT deployments and ongoing operations. (Business Insider,
John Greenough and Jonathan Camhi, 03/1/16; The Internet of Things:
Examining How the IoT Will Affect the World, John Greenough and
Jonathan Camhi, November 2015; The Internet of Everything 2016, BI
Intelligence, April 2016; Venture Scanner, 04/08/16; State of the Market:
Internet of Things 2016, Verizon, 04/07/16)

How will the Internet of Things impact the financial services sector?
The rapidly growing Internet of Things (IoT) is reshaping the worlds economy and impacting the
financial services industry on data security, the use of sensors and big data analysis. Gartner
projects approximately 25.0 billion IoT sensors will be installed by 2020, creating opportunities for
all industries, including banking. Approximately 33% of the sensors deployed today could be used
by the financial services industry, rising to about 50% by 2020, according to Deloitte Center for
Financial Services.

Today, branch-based IoT applications include video tellers and kiosks, where sensing technology
monitors the customer and takes action on his behalf. Mobile geolocation and beacon technology
can introduce the customer as a pre-quing device to improve service.

Real-time data on consumer spending can provide loan underwriters valuable information to
assess risk. Data on the customers residence, including crime statistics, wise use of water and
electricity and exercise regime will help underwriters profile the applicants responsible behavior
and increase the likelihood of a loan approval at more affordable interest rates.

Connected devices will be widely used in the payments space, as monitors trigger the automatic
order and payment for goods, as needed. Ultimately, handheld scanners or mobile phone apps will
be used to scan bar codes of items placed in a grocery basket, allowing the checkout and payment
process to be streamlined. In 2015, Mastercard introduced the Commerce for Every Device
program, which enables any accessory, wearable, automobile or gadget to become a payment
device. As everything becomes connected, customers will have an unlimited number of options on
how to make payments, as the devices begin to work together seamlessly over time. Technology

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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13

INTERNET OF THINGS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

that allows Internet connected cars to make payments is expected to be rolled out in 2016, after
which it will be expanded to markets in other parts of the world. For the IoT to reach its full potential
in the financial services industry, establishing identity for the devices and ensuring the devices
cybersecurity will be essential. Over the next decade, the way a consumer views financial services
and how his identity is connected to an account will be completely disrupted.

The insurance industry has begun to use sensor to improve customer communication and expedite
insurance claims. Wireless communication from the automobiles computer is helping insurers
collect and analyze behavior data to better assess risk and allow customers to pay on a behavior
e.g., usebasis rather than flat annual premium. Sensors can be used to monitor clients health,
track carbon monoxide levels in the home, monitor water leaks or firesall potentially lowering
insurance premiums and improving the efficiency of the insurance industry and lowering costs to
consumers.

Theres no question that the Internet of Things has a dramatic effect on the way financial services
companies will collect data, how they operate and how they interact with customers, wrote futurist
Richard van Hooijdonk. Succeeding in this era depends on how well these new technologies
are deployed. While the IoT offers new opportunities, it also has the potential to disrupt the
marketplace. It will facilitate the development of new business models and new competitors. In
order for the financial services industry, or any industry for that matter, to yield value from the
Internet of Things, we need to adapt, rethink and address factors such as privacy concerns and
cyber security.

By enabling the collection and exchange of information from objects, the IoT has the potential
to be as broadly transformational to the financial services industry as the Internet itself, said Jim
Eckenrode, executive director of the Deloitte Center for Financial Services

Within the next 10 years, well launch almost 100 billion IoT devices onto the worlds stage, said
Brett King, CEO of Moven. Whether an autonomous, self-driving car driving for Uber, a smart
fridge that orders your groceries, a solar-powered car recharging station that requests a payment
or your automated assistant on your smart device booking your airline or movie tickets, the vast
majority of payment and financial transactions around the globe will be fully automated within a
decade. [T]hese are transactions that dont involve a plastic card, NFC chip or checkbook, and
these are accounts that you wont find listed on the website of a retail bank. The Internet of Things
means the way we think about bank products and services and how we marry an identity with an
account is going to be completely undermined over the next decade. Regulators and bankers
better get ready for a new reality.

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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14

INTERNET OF THINGS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Bradley Leimer, head of innovation at Santander, N.A. said:

The growing IoT opportunity manifests itself in an augmented world


of sensors and connected smart devices that can have a tremendous
implication for financial services. I can eventually see our personal identities
and payment mechanisms become part of this broader information network,
much in the same way the web and smartphone have impacted our daily lives
already.
Our connected home will grow to include an expanding array of security and
home monitoring devices that provide feedback and an improved quality of
life, while transmitting insight to our trusted partners in real time. For banking,
this insight will impact insurance, lending opportunities and even savings
offers.
Our connected businesses will be impacted in areas like trade finance, a
$22 trillion market where embedded sensors can determine the location and
condition of goods shipped, often between previously unconnected parties.
Smaller businesses will be able to ship goods more efficiently on a global
basis as data is disseminated by trusted data providers.
These behavioral changes will impact the way we spend, the way we are
paid, the way we run our businesses, and our interactions with banks. In
addition to efficiencies, Ive long argued that the growing IoT ecosystem
should be embraced by financial players as they help us save the most
valuable commodity of all time. (The IoT and the Disruption of the
Financial Services Industry, 03/01/16; How Financial Services Can Make
IoT Technology Pay Off, Jim Eckenrode, 10/13/15; The Financial Brand, Jim
Marous, 10/20/15)

How will self-driving cars change our way of life?


By 2020, an estimated 10 million self-driving cars will be on the road. This [has the potential to]
dramatically reduce the number of cars on the street, 80% of which have people driving alone in
them, and also a households cost of transportation, which is 18% of their income around $9,000
a year for an asset that they use only 5% of the time, said Robin Chase, the founder and CEO of
Buzzcar, co-founder and former CEO of Zipcar.

The adoption of this revolutionary technology will reverberate throughout the U.S. economy,
dramatically impacting:

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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15

INTERNET OF THINGS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Automakers, suppliers, dealers, auto financiers, auto insurers


Parking lot companies (and land use)
Oil companies
Auto repair companies
Personal injury lawyers
Health insurers
Government gasoline tax revenues
Government licensing fees, traffic tickets, taxes and tolls
Government infrastructure, including roads, bridges, traffic signals, etc.
Collectively, self-driving cars are expected to (i) save 42 lives daily lost daily caused by auto
accidents and $576 million of related damage to autos; (ii) eliminate $14 million paid annually for
speeding tickets; and (iii) reduce daily gasoline consumption by 35% (420,000 barrels).

In its 2015 10-K filing with the SEC, Allstate Insurance warns that automous cars could disrupt their
business model. The company wrote:

Other potential technological changes, such as driverless cars or


technologies that facilitate ride or home sharing could disrupt the demand
for our products from current customers, create coverage issues or impact
the frequency or severity of losses, and we may not be able to respond
effectively.
However it plays out, these vehicles are coming and fast, wrote Joseph Dallegro. Their full
adoption will take decades, but their convenience, cost, safety and other factors will make them
ubiquitous and indispensable. Such as with any technological revolution, the companies that plan
ahead, adjust the fastest and imagine the biggest will survive and thrive. And companies invested
in old technology and practices will need to evolve or risk dying. (Investopedia, Joseph A. Dallegro,
May 2014; Driverless Car Watch, 03/03/16; BusinessInsider, John Greenough, 07/29/15;
AUVSI.org)

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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16

INTERNET OF THINGS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

On LinkedIn, RedFins Glenn Kelman wrote:

Most of what we buy bubble gum, blouses, books, baseballs is destined to last days,
weeks, maybe years. But we think of houses as investments rather than consumable goods
because houses last decades or centuries. Over that time, what makes a house valuable
doesnt change much: well always like plenty of square footage, views, and mostly prefer
living in cities with nearby restaurants, train stations and jobs.
And we love parking. Where we live, work and even eat is shaped by where we can park
our cars. A car has been the pet that Americans insist on accommodating, in numbers ten
times higher than modern parts of Asia like Hong Kong.
But now a change is at hand. Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicts that cars will drive themselves
in two years. Chris Urmson at Google estimates it will take five years. Already Lyft and
Uber have shifted millennials home-buying preferences: who needs a garage, or for that
matter a kitchen or a living room, when transportation, food and even a social life are all
available online and on-demand? This is why, even as urban home prices boom, we see
couples with one car or no cars preferring smaller homes with fewer amenities but a high
Walk Score and nearby transit.
In our lifetimes, and the lifetimes of our mortgages, the self-driving car could change the
shape of the American city even more profoundly. Unlike the cars of today, which are
parked 96% of the time, self-driving cars will be in semi-continuous service except in the
wee hours; well need far fewer cars overall, and those that remain will leave town at night.
A third of urban real estate is devoted to parking garages that could become parks;
there are eight U.S. parking spaces for every car in operation, for as many as two billion
U.S. spaces overall. Thirteen percent of every lot for a typical single-family home is now
dedicated to a garage that could be converted into an office or a mother-in-law apartment;
with the income provided by AirBnB and other property-rental sites, single-family homes
could thus become 13% more affordable. Perhaps a decade from now, architects and
contractors may offer fixed-fee garage-conversion services, in much the same way that old
houses were once converted en masse to use modern furnaces and plumbing.
Self-driving cars will also change homebuyers location preferences. Data from Lyft and
Uber already show that when private transit becomes significantly cheaper, public-transit
use also increases: many carless households replace the car with a mix of private and
public transit. As cars become a service rather than an asset, proximity to bus lines may

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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17

INTERNET OF THINGS

MARCH / APRIL 2016

become less important, but subways and trains that can bypass car traffic altogether will
only grow in popularity.
How should this affect your home-buying decisions today? Perhaps not much; the average
lifespan of a car is 15 years, so it may be 2035 or later before nearly all cars are selfdriving. And well still need at least some parking, not to mention a place for our skis and
lawn-mower.
But our guess is that the future, which usually doesnt come to pass at an even pace,
will happen faster than that; there will be a tipping point, driven in this case by the
overwhelming convenience and safety of self-driving cars, and by the likelihood that only a
small proportion of cars need to be self-driving before real estate prices begin to anticipate
a world where most cars are that way.
Regardless of when you want to prepare for the future, heres our take on what to do about
it:
Dont pay a premium for a garage. Today the same home with or
without a garage costs an extra $50,000 per parking space. A decade
from now self-driving cars will make urban homes with less parking
more attractive.
Do pay a premium for proximity to a subway station or rail station.
Today proximity to transit adds 30% to a homes value. As the number
of partially or completely carless households increases, we believe that
premium will be closer to 50% in a decade.
And last but not least, consider the possibility that a home next to an
unsightly parking garage may one day be situated next to a new park
or a new block of coffee shops and restaurants.
A hundred years ago, the car was the reason that cities became something entirely
different than villages, with sprawl, painful commutes and gated communities. Now the selfdriving car may bring the old idea of a village back to the future. (LinkedIn, Glenn Kelman,
03/30/16)

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

www.canfieldpress.com

18

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

DIGITAL BANKING
The epicenter of disruption: FinTech
The digital revolution in banking has just begun. Today, the industry is in phase one of
this evolution, offering customers high quality web and mobile sites and apps. New digital

6 PwC Global FinTech Report

technologies are reshaping the value proposition of existing financial products and services,
placing up to 28% of banking and payments business and 22% of insurance, asset management
and wealth management services at risk to disintermediation, according to PwC.
1.1 Disruption targets mostly
consumer banking and payments

In consumer and commercial lending, for example, the emergence


of online platforms allows individuals and businesses to lend and
borrow between each other. Lending innovation also manifests
itself in alternative credit models, use of non-traditional data
sources and powerful data analytics to price risks, rapid customercentric lending processes, and lower operating costs.

payments processes, new digital applications that facilitate easier


payments, alternative processing networks and the increased use
of electronic devices to transfer money between accounts.

THE FINANCIAL SECTORS MOST DISRUPTED Disintermediation:


BY FINTECH
FinTechs
most powerful weapon
OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

In keeping with changes already underway, the majority of our


survey participants see consumer banking and fund transfer and
payments as the sectors most likely to be disrupted over the next
five years (see Figure 3).

In recent years, the payments industry has also experienced a


high level of disruption with the surge of new technology-driven

Figure 3: Areas of disruption


Which part of the financial sector is likely to be the most disrupted by FinTech over the next 5 years? All industries

Banking and capital markets

80%

Consumer banking and fund transfers &


payments are likely to be the most disrupted
sectors by 2020

70%

Asset and wealth management

60%

Insurance/Reinsurance

50%

Fund transfer and payments


40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Consumer
banking

Fund transfer &


payments

Investment
& wealth
management

SME banking

Brokerage
services

Property
& casualty
insurance/
Life insurance

Commercial
banking

Insurance
intermediary

Market
operators &
exchanges

Fund
operators

Investment
banking

Reinsurance

Source: PwC Global FinTech Survey 2016

Although a high level of disruption triggered by FinTech is already beginning to reshape the
nature of lending and payment practices, a second wave of disruption is making inroads in
the asset management and insurance sectors, wrote PwC. Annual investments in InsurTech
start-ups has increased fivefold over the past three years, with cumulative funding of InsurTechs
reaching $3.4bn since 2010, based on companies followed in our DeNovo platform. The pace
of change in the global insurance industry is accelerating more quickly than could have been
envisaged. The industry is at a pivotal juncture as it grapples with changing customer behavior,
new technologies and new distribution and business models [including self-directed services,
usage-based insurance, and remote data capture and analytics to evaluate risk etc.). The
investment industry is also being pulled into the vortex of vast technological developments.

Blockchain is a new technology that combines a number of mathematical, cryptographic and


economic principles in order to maintain a database between multiple participants without the
need for any third party validator or reconciliation. In simple terms, it is a secure and distributed
ledger. Our insight is that blockchain represents the next evolutionary jump in business process

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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19

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

optimization technology. Just as Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software allowed functions
and entities within a business to optimize business processes by sharing data and logic within the
enterprise, blockchain will allow entire industries to optimize business processes further by sharing
data between businesses that have different or competing economic objectives. That said, although
the technology shows a lot of promise, several challenges and barriers to adoption remain.
Further, a deep understanding of blockchain and its commercial implications requires knowledge
that intersects various disparate fields and this leads to some uncertainty regarding its potential
applications.

In our view, blockchain technology may result in a radically different competitive future in the
[financial services] industry, where current profit pools are disrupted and redistributed toward the
owners of new, highly efficient blockchain platforms. Not only could there be huge cost savings
through its use in back-office operations but also large gains in transparency that could be very
positive from an audit and regulatory point of view. One particular hot topic is that of smart
contracts contracts that are translated into computer programs and, as such, have the ability to
be self-executing and self-maintaining. This area is just starting to be explored, but its potential for
automating and speeding up manual and costly processes is huge.

Innovation from start-ups in this space is frenetic, with the pace of change so rapid that by the
time print materials go to press they could already be out of date. To put this in perspective, PwCs
Global Blockchain Team has identified more than 700 companies entering this arena. Among them,
150 are worthy to be tracked and 25 will likely emerge as leaders. Distributed ledger technologies
offer FS institutions a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform the industry to their benefit, or
not.

FinTech companies are not just bringing concrete solutions to a morphing consumer base, they
are also empowering customers by providing new services which can be delivered with the use of
technological applications. The rise of digital finance allows consumers to connect to information
anywhere at any time, and digital services can address their needs in a more convenient way than
traditional nine-to-five financial advisors can.

The main impact of FinTech will be the surge of new FS business models, which will create
challenges for both regulators and market players. FS firms should turn away from trying to control
all parts of their value chain and customer experience through traditional business models, and
instead move toward the center of the FinTech ecosystem by leveraging their trusted relationships
with customers and their extensive access to client data. FS players might not recognise the
financial industry in the future, but they will be in the center of it. (Blurred lines: How FinTech is
Shaping Financial Services, PwC, March 2016)

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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20

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Neobanksthe banks of the future


An alternate approach to the traditional bank model is a purely digital delivery of financial services
via online delivery of products and servicesthe so-called neobankan app-only bank that is
springing up across Europe. A successful startup that is using the neobank model is Number26,
a Berlin-based app-only bank launched in January 2015, which was named one of the hottest
4/9/2016

European startups to watch in FinTech50


2016. Since its formation in January 2015, Number
Building a digital-banking business | McKinsey & Company

26 has signed up 160,000 customers and expects to attract 240,000 new customers in 2016
making it the fastest growing bank in Germany. This startup has rebundled financial services
for its customer by forming strategic partnership with other FinTechs, including Barzahlen and

Transferwise.
Number26 is well on its way to creating a borderless bank in Europe, reaching
Exhibit
1
customers in France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Slovakia and Spain, and becoming an essential

financial gateway across Europe.


IT capex and opex is expected to be significantly lower to set up the
digital model versus a traditional operating model.

TRADITIONAL VS. DIGITAL CAPEX COSTS

IT costs,
USD million

IT costs, USD million


Upfront capex incurred

IT maintenance opex plus depreciation


Depreciation

100120

2545

3545
1520
2025

Traditional

Digital

Opex

Traditional

20
~5

~15

Digital

In a Business Insider interview, Number26 CEO and cofounder Valentin Stalf described how his
bank differs from traditional financial institutions:

Sixsuccessfactorstobuilddigital-banking
businesses
What weve been doing is banking as it should be in 2015 and 2016. We try to reimagine
how a bank should work and we tried to build something that is like using Uber or Spotify or
any of these apps you love to use. We said first it should be mobile and secondly, if you use
Basedonourexperiencehelpingmorethan20institutionsevaluate,design,and

it, it shouldnt be something that you hate.


buildnewdigital-bankingbusinesses,wehaveidentifiedsixcriticalsuccessfactors

thatbankswillneedtoaddresstoensureaquickandsuccessfullaunch.

Also, weve spent a lot of time on how can you be more efficient in building or doing
banking in general. If you look at a traditional bank theyve got a big branch network and

1.Focusonwheretherealvalueis

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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21

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

theyre using technology out of the 1980s. We tried to make a backbone, together with the
app that we have, that is much superior to the traditional banks and give you a product at
a free price for the base account and then be much superior in the things we build around
that.
We started with a fairly niche productan account and a card. Now weve gone from
there to a FinTech hub around that where we try to leverage the innovation If you do an
international transfer, it doesnt have to be done like it has been done 30 years ago. Maybe
it can be done through TransferWise. Weve integrated with TransferWise so you can use
it but you dont have to leave the app. Were doing that for savings and investment. Were
planning to do that for consumer credit products in the future.
I dont believe in having three different appsone for credit, one for savings, one for
managing your cards. I think you should have everything you want in one app and get
everything that you need with one click. It makes more sense to build a marketplace the
FinTech hub and lets everyone buy things in one place
Im a strong believer that if you have the best product, obviously you will be superior in
winning customers. We have lower overheads and better engagement with our user, giving
us lower customer acquisition costs, and we have the better offers on the platform in the
future.
I personally think that in the long run the better products will survive. Maybe in the
beginning it will be early adopters but still. Today there is no reason to sign up to an
account that is more expensive and has a worse app.
Today we are the fastest growing retail banking product in Germany, with competition that
puts more than 50 million in marketing every year. I think the time is right now that people
are moving away.
Maybe we dont have to get the non-digital natives. Maybe we start with the digital
nativesthere are around 60 million in Europe. If we win 6 million out of that, 10%, I think
its going to be pretty successful.
Obviously were not going to replace Deutsche Bank but the question is where are the
future customers? Are they with us or are they with Deutsche Bank? (Business Insider,
Oscar Williams-Grut, 04/06/16; Building a Digital-Banking Busines, Sonia Barquin and
Vinayak HV, April 2016)

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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22

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

FinTech is forcing banking to a tipping point


FinTech is changing the world of finance, wrote Citi analysts. In the US and Europe, we are at
a tipping point, especially in consumer banking. The banks have clients and scale but the new
FinTech entrants usually have the innovation edge, especially at the client experience interface.
To remain competitive, banks need to get innovation before the FinTech companies get scale.
In China, by contrast, we are past the tipping point: FinTech companies have both scale and
innovation. India is the next biggest opportunity.

FINANCIAL INNOVATION IS AT THE TIPPING POINT IN U.S. AND EU


THE US AND EUROPE ARE AT THE TIPPING POINT IN TERMS OF FINANCIAL INNOVATION
Impact of digital disruption on US Consumer Banking Revenue
$1,200 billion
$1,050 billion
$870 billion

$850 billion

1.1%

5%

10%

17%

Total banking
consumer revenue
Revenue impact from
digital disruption
Source: Citi Digital Strategy

2015

2017

2020

2023

UK

CHINA IS PAST THE


TIPPING POINT
WITH FINTECH
HAVING
Investments
in financial
technology
haveCOMPANIES
growth exponentially
in the past
decade rising from
US
SIMILAR NUMBER OF CLIENTS AS THE MAJOR BANKS

$1.8 billion in 2010 to $19 billion in 2015 with over 70% of this investment focusing on the

last mile of user experience [e.g., at the point of sale] in the consumer space, they continued.
Although FinTech companies have China
the advantage of new innovation, incumbent financial
institutions still have the upper hand in terms of scale and we have not yet reached the tipping
$5.4

billion
point of digital disruption in either the US or Europe. Given the growth in FinTech investment,
this
$16.6
billion

isnt likelyChina
to continue
is currentlyfor
the long.
biggest Peer-to-Peer (P2P)
lender in the world
Source: Citi Research

$66.9

billion made in the personal and small and medium enterprise


Over 70% of FinTech startups have been

banking space, which accounts for about 50% of the industrys profit pool and a higher proportion
Global

of the sectors equity value, according to Citi.

China also has the largest


e-commerce system
in the world (gross
merchandise volume)

2018

$1,700
billion

$3,000
billion

$672
billion

$1,600
billion

China

Source: eMarketer, Citi Research

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

2015

www.canfieldpress.com

23

Business-to-Consumer (B2C) dominate? Firstly, consumer client behavior has


changed. Smartphones have revolutionized information and content delivery in
MARCH
/ APRIL
2016 across
general and are now becoming important in financial
services
transactions
multiple continents. B2C solutions can "win" new clients with a better experience
whereas Business-to-Business (B2B) solutions need to jump several more hurdles,
including corporate clients' greater product/service customization and corporate
procurement department's focus on safety and supplier risk, all of which increase
switching costs.

DIGITAL BANKING

PRIVATE FINTECH COMPANIES CAPITAL DEPLOYED BY SEGMENT


Figure 2. Capital Deployed in Private FinTech Companies By Segment

Insurance
10%

Figure 3. Capital Deployed in Private FinTech Companies By Business


Area

Large
Investment
Corporate
Banking
3%
4%

Insurance
10%
Savings &
Wealth
10%

Equity
Digital Currency Crowdfunding
3%
2%
Institutional
Tools
3%

Asset
Management &
Wealth
10%

12

Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions


Personal &
SME
73%

Banking's Uber Moment

Payment
March 2016
23%

Lending
46%

Money Transfer
3%

Bank branch levels are forecast to fall


Antony Jenkins, the former CEO of Barclays, talks about banks being at an "Uber
significantly given their high cost, the
moment" and argues that pressure from new technology-based competitors "will
Source:
CBInsights, KPMG,compel
Crunch Base
andtoCiti
Research; Based
on c120
private
companies
CBInsights
FinTech
increased ubiquity of mobile
Internet,
banks
significantly
automate
their
business"
andfrom
"that
the number
of Periodic table Dec 2014; KPMGs top 50 most
prominent FinTech innovators Dec 2015; Valuation based on Crunch Base Total Equity Funding for private companies and exit value for acquired companies
increasing FinTech competition and a
branches and people may decline by as much as 50% over the next years." Mr.
sluggish revenue and profitability
Jenkins may well be right. The consumer banks in the US and Europe are at a
environment
tipping point in terms of branch distribution. Northern Europe has already done a lot

Bankings Uber moment

[FinTech]
willDutch
compel
banks
to
automate
their
business
and that the number of
Nordic and
banks
have
cutsignificantly
total branchPoint
levels
by
50%
from recent
At the
Tipping
inaround
the
West

peak levels.
Wepeople
believe may
that from
2013by
levels
(the lastas
reported
branch/population
branches
and
decline
as much
50% over
the next years, said Barclays CEO
from the World Bank), developed
banks could
branch
numbers
by of the current consumer banking
In the USmarket
and Europe,
onlycut
a very
small
fraction
Only a small fraction ofdata
the consumer
Antony
Jenkins.
Citi
analysts
project
that
the
number
of
bank
branches
will decline another
another
30-50%.
operating
in thedisrupted
developed by
market
with the
wallet
has been
FinTech
so lowest
far. However, this is likely to rise. Greg
banking wallet has been
disrupted
so farDNB,
in already
30% to 50% in developedBaxter,
markets,
largely
driven
byofmobile
banking,
increased
FinTech
ratio, announced
in
late
2015
that
theyInternet
will further
Citi's
Global
Head
Digital
Strategy,
notes that
we are not
even at "the end
the US and Europe branch penetration/population
halve their branch
in revenue
2016. Theand
US banks
have upgrowthparticularly
to now lagged their
competition,
and network
sluggish
profitability
in
a
low
interest
rate and the US.
of the beginning" of the consumer disruption cycle in Western Europe
Nordic and European peers on branch reductions. But with the increased ubiquity of
environment.
Greg's
team
estimates
that
currently
only about
the mobile Internet, increasing
FinTech
competition,
and
a sluggish
revenue
and 1% of North American consumer
revenue
migrated
newindigital
profitability environment, webanking
expect US
banks tohas
follow
their EU to
peers
cutting business models (either at new
entrants or incumbents) but that this will increase to about 10% by 2020 and 17%
branches.

by 2023.
We are in the PER
early stages
the US andBY
European
consumer banking
COMMERCIAL BANK
BRANCHES
100kofADULTS
REGION
Figure 10. Commercial Bank Branches
per 100k
Adultstherefore
By Region we note that this estimate is subject to considerable
disruption
cycle,

forecast risk. However, an open question remains as to whether incumbent banks in


the US and Europe can embrace
innovation, not just talk about Blockchain and
Forecasts
hack-a-thons, before FinTech competitors gain scale and distribution.

40
35
30
25

-33%

20
-45%

15
10

-50%

5
-

2016 Citigroup

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2018 2020
Euro area
East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)
Nordics

2025

United States
Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels)

Source: World Bank, Citi Researech

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

www.canfieldpress.com

Halving Staff Numbers


A reduction in banks' physical networks

As noted by Jonathan Larsen, Global Head of Retail and Mortgages at Citi, the

24

People: Automation Tipping Point


We see another ~30% reduction in staff
during 2015-2025
with a 3%
decline per
DIGITAL
BANKING
year (up from the current 2% decline),
resulting in a 40-45% decline from peak
staffing levels pre-crisis

The future of the branch is about advisory and consultation rather than transaction.
The return on having a physical network is diminishing. Branches and associated
MARCH / APRIL 2016
staff costs make up about 65% of the total retail cost base of a larger bank and a lot
of these costs can be removed via automation. The pace of staff reduction so far
has been gradual (~2% per year or ~11-13% from peak levels per-crisis). We
believe that there could be another ~30% reduction in staff during 2015-2025,
shifting from the recent 2% per year decline to 3% per year, mainly from retail
Citi
expects
the banking
industry
will reduce
staff
an additional
30%result
between
banking
automation.
From
peak staffing
levels
pre-crisis,
this would
in a 2015
40- and 2025. If
45%
decline,system
not farinoffEurope,
from Antony
Jenkins'
the
banking
Japan,
and theforecast.
US operated with the same cost/income ratio as
the best-in-class Nordic region, it would remove $175 billion from their cost base (or 23%) and add
For countries that have gone through more severe financial crisis and consolidation
39% to the pre-tax profit of the banks in 2016, wrote the Citi analysts.
such as Greece, Ireland, and Denmark, recent full time employee (FTE) reduction
ranges between 3%-5% per year. Low interest rates and increased automation are
catalysts for faster full-time employee (FTE) reduction.

AT THE TIPPING POINT OF FTE REDUCTION (MILLIONS)


Figure 114. At the Tipping Point of FTE Reduction (millions)

4.00
3.00

3.26

-40%

2.93

2.89

2.57

1.82

1.80

2.00

-45%

1.00
0.00

US

Europe
Peak

2015

2025

Source: ECB, United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Citi Research estimates

As banks reduce the number of branches,


the number of transaction-based employees
will decline

We are
at anmobile
inflection
pointand
for retail
bankingrevolution
driven by has
automation
The
recent
Internet
smartphone
created and
a game changer in consumer
digitalization. As banks reduce the number of branches, naturally the number of
and SME finance and payments, wrote the analysts. Smartphones in the US and Europe are
transaction based employees such as branch tellers will decline. In the US, the
increasingly
part tellers
of the is
SME
and micro-enterprise
payment
Square
number of bank
already
down 15% from the
peak inspace
2007.(e.g.
As we
notedor
iniZettle). Apple
Pay
and
Android
Pay
debuted
in
2014
and
2015
respectively
and
allow
consumers
the Branch of the Future section (see page 71) in a branch heavy retail bank aroundto make
65% of banks
staff aretablets
doing processing
that could
be automated
in thepayment
long
payments
via phones,
or watches.work
The original
mobile
device based
service,
term. In the
coming in
years,
theasrecent
trend
branch teller staff reduction should
M-PESA,
launched
Kenya
far back
as of
2007.
accelerate (e.g. in the US go up from the 2 percentage point reduction per year
since 2007).
Technology does not just change distribution models and service patterns. It is not just a question
of fewer branches and more apps The definition of financial products themselves may need to
be rethought. John Stumpf, Wells Fargo CEO, noted in late 2015:

Well probably be the last generation to use the term credit card and debit
card. It will probably be debit access and credit access and it will be likely
2016 Citigroup

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

loaded on to a mobile device.

www.canfieldpress.com

25

Blockchain: The Next Big Thing?


A lot of innovation has been focused on the
"last mile"

DIGITAL BANKING

Looking to the long term, the new generation of technology could generate cost
savings as well as extra investment spend. So far a lot of payments innovation has
been focused on the last mile, i.e., the user experience at the point of MARCH
sale. The / APRIL 2016
existing payment infrastructure remains the backbone. But Blockchain technology
could be different. It could replace the current payment rail of centralised clearing
with a distributed ledger for many aspects of financial services, especially in the
B2B world.
[Blockchain
technology]could
replaceitsthe
[banking industrys]
current
payment rail of centralized
Blockchain positives
are based around
characteristics,
including
decentralization,
programmability,
and immutability.
could aspects
also be aofcatalyst
forservices,
the transformation
clearing
with a distributed
ledger forIt many
financial
especially in the B2B
of manywrote
existing
systems
that operate
with a high
degreearound
of robustness
but
world,
the legacy
Citi analysts.
Blockchain
positives
are based
its characteristics
including
may not be the most cost or capital efficient way of doing business. However, there
decentralization, programmability, and immutability. It could also be a catalyst for the transformation
are also considerable negatives associated with the technology, not least that it is
of
many existing
legacyedge"
systems
operate
with a high
robustness
but may not be the
currently
still "bleeding
andthat
lacks
the robustness
of degree
existingofpayment
systems
most
cost
or
capital
efficient
way
of
doing
business.
such as Visa or SWIFT. But even if Blockchain does not end up replacing the core
current financial infrastructure, it may be a catalyst to rethink and re-engineer legacy
systems that could work more efficiently.

BLOCKCHAIN POSITIVES AND NEGATIVES


Figure 135. Blockchain Positives and Negatives
Positives (+)

Decentralization: Direct transfer of digital


assets based on a distributed ledger. Allows
counterparties to transact without the need of
(multiple) intermediaries.
Programmability: Enables pre-programmed
contracts to be executed once agreed
conditions are met (e.g. smart contracts in
insurance/hedging)
Immutability: Maintain an audit trail. that
tracks the ownership of the asset from
origination (e.g. property rights).
Cost/Capital Efficiency: Could be a catalyst
to drive a transformation in existing
processes that would ultimately result in
lower cost and higher capital efficiency from
new business models.

Negatives (-)

Lack of Scale: High marginal cost


relatively to existing systems (e.g. Visa or
SWIFT) because of a lack of scale and
network effects at the moment.
Bleeding Edge: The technology is not
mature relative to the current financial
infrastructure. Robustness for large
volume transactions is yet to be
developed.
Inherently More Costly: A distributed
ledger system is more costly to operate
than a centralized system (higher
computation power required).
Consensus: Without an intermediary, a
super majority is required to reach
consensus. The design of the consensus
mechanism affects transaction speed

Source: Citi Research

. and blockchain technology in the longer


term

What Is Blockchain?

However, there are also considerable negatives associated with the technology, not least of which
is
that it is currently
still bleeding
andthat
lacks
the arobustness
of existing
systems
Blockchain
is a distributed
ledger edge
database
uses
cryptographic
networkpayment
to
provide
single
source of
truth.
allows
untrusting
parties
with common
such
as a
Visa
or SWIFT.
But
evenBlockchain
if Blockchain
does
not end up
replacing
the core current financial
interests to co-create
a permanent,
and transparent
of that could work more
infrastructure,
it may be
a catalyst tounchangeable,
rethink and re-engineer
legacyrecord
systems
exchange and processing without relying on a central authority. In contrast to
efficiently.
traditional payment model where a central clearing is required to transfer money
between the sender and the recipient, Blockchain relies on a distributed ledger and
consensus of the network of processors, i.e. a super majority is required by the
If the Internet is a disruptive platform designed to facilitate the dissemination of information,
servers for a transfer to take place.
then Blockchain technology is a disruptive platform designed to facilitate the exchange of value.
Blockchain has a few clear advantages relative to the current system. First of all, it disintermediates
the middleman. It enables direct transfer of digital assets without the need for an intermediary.
Moreover, since no middleman is required, a Blockchain system has the likely benefit of fast and
low cost settlement. Another promising innovation that leverages the Blockchain is smart contracts
and tokenization. Smart contracts automate and execute pre-agreed conditions once they are met.

2016 Citigroup

And lastly, Blockchain provides irrefutable proof of existence, an important feature to maintain an
audit trail that tracks the ownership of the valuable asset being transferredthis is crucial from a
business and a regulatory perspective.

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

www.canfieldpress.com

26

information, then Blockchain technology is a disruptive platform designed to


facilitate the exchange of value. Blockchain has a few clear advantages relative to
the current system. First of all, it disintermediates the middle man. It enables direct
transfer of digital assets without the need for an intermediary. Moreover, since no
middle man is required, a Blockchain system has the likely benefit of fast and low
MARCH
APRIL the
2016
cost settlement. Blockchain. Another promising innovation
that/ leverages
Blockchain is smart contracts and tokenization. Smart contracts automate and
execute pre-agreed conditions once they are met. And lastly, Blockchain provides
irrefutable proof of existence, an important feature to maintain an audit trail that
tracks the ownership of the valuable asset being transferred this is crucial from a
business and a regulatory perspective.

DIGITAL BANKING

ATTRACTIONS OF BLOCKCHAIN OFFERING


Figure 137. Attractions of Blockchain Offering

Disintermediation

Speed & Efficiency

Automation

Certainty

Enables direct ownership


and transfer of digital
assets without need for an
intermediary

Faster settlement on a
relatively cost effective and
efficient network

Programmability enables
automation of capabilities
on the ledger (e.g. smart
contracts)

Provides irrefutable proof of


existence, proof of process
and proof of provenance

Source: Citi

March 2016

Blockchain technology could be applied more broadly than crypto-currencies. In the currency

2016 Citigroup

Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions

91

space, the Bitcoin rail could be used to facilitate cross border payments or supply chain and
trade finance. Because virtually any type of information can be digitized and placed onto
Blockchain, theoretically
any information
of value could be transferred in the Blockchain world.
Blockchain
Use Cases

The programmability
of Blockchain makes it suitable for smart contracts: a contract that executes
Blockchain technology could be applied more broadly than crypto-currencies. In the

currency space,
the Bitcoin
rail could could
be usedalso
to facilitate
crossfor
border
or
once pre-agreed conditions
are met.
Blockchain
be used
datapayments
management
such as
supply chain and trade finance. Because virtually any type of information can be
digitized and placed onto Blockchain, theoretically any information of value could be
part of Blockchain adoption,
especially
as an
ecosystem
needs toof be
developed
transferred in
the Blockchain
world.
The programmability
Blockchain
makesfor
it the
suitable for smart contracts: a contract that executes once pre-agreed conditions
of the new system. The technology is not industrial grade yet in the view of many in the
are met. Blockchain could also be used for data management such as identity
industry.
management. Determining the optimal Blockchain use case is often the most
challenging part of Blockchain adoption, especially as an ecosystem needs to be
developed for the adoption of the new system. The technology is not industrial
grade yet in the view of many in the banking industry.

identity management. Determining the optimal Blockchain use case is often the most challenging
adoption
banking

ATTRACTIONS OF BLOCKCHAIN OFFERING


Figure 138. Blockchain Is Bigger than Bitcoin

Source: Citi Research

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

In the financial world, Blockchain can be used in a wide range of applications


www.canfieldpress.com
including payments and trade as
seen in Figure 139, even though for many of these
use cases, it could take decades to reach industrial scale.
Cross border payments and remittances can be very successfully adopted in the

27

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Apart from faster processing times and lower borrowing costs (due to branchless model), P2P
lenders help service customer segments that are not ordinarily viable for banks, wrote the
analysts. :On the other hand, lenders enjoy higher returns vs. other traditional bank products and
have the opportunity to diversify their investments (as a single lender can choose to invest in
multiple projects, thereby funding only a part of the whole project and diversifying his risk).

Prominent P2P platforms in the West are Lending Club and Prosper in the US and Zopa in
the UK. They currently account for a miniscule share in the total credit pie (<1% of US and UK
consumer lending), but theyve been growing exponentiallyLending Club and Prosper originated
loans of over $8 billion in 2015 alone.

FORMIDABLE CHALLENGERS: MARKETPLACE LENDERS

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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28

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

The addressable market for P2P lending potentially includes revolving credit card loans, student
loans, and loans to small and medium businesses. We estimate in the US, this market totals
$3.2 trillion, of which $1.3 trillion is held by commercial banks and the rest by non-bank financial
institutions. Citi analyst Mark May estimates the target market for Lending Club and its peers is
about $254 billionaround 8% of total addressable US total consumer credit market.

Given the growth and outlook for the online alternative lending sector, there are a large number
of companies and significant venture capital invested in this space. While there are increasing
institutional money seeking P2P as an alternative asset class, which provide valuable liquid
funding for the platforms, the long-term success of the companies would increasingly be based on
the efficacy of a companys marketing and branding.

The marketplace lenders have only been around for a decade. They are currently benefitting
from a record low interest rate environment that resulted in lenders/investors in search of yield
and drawn them to its marketplace. The borrowers are also enjoying the lower debt servicing cost
in a low rate environment. But the business model is yet to be tested against interest rates and
credit cycles. There is concern that higher rates resulting from Fed tightening could negatively
impact business models levered to consumer credit such as Lending Club. The Fed rate hike in
December 2015 already resulted in a correction in the share price of US P2P lenders.

As it stands currently, the alternative lending space has generally avoided falling subject to
restrictive regulation that would impede alternative lending business models. That said, it is
difficult to rule out increased regulatory burden for Lending Club and similar business models,
especially if the asset class was to exhibit meaningful underperformance or sizeable defaults. We
think likely impacts of increased legislation could include: (1) risk retention requirements, similar
to those made of sponsors of asset-backed securities under Dodd-Frank; (2) minimum capital
requirements to help alternative lending platforms withstand financial shocks, which are required
in the UK; and (3) heightened disclosure and reporting requirements that could become more
burdensome and expensive. (Digital Disruption, Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, March
2016; American Banker, Kevin Wack, 04/08/16)

Innovation is not a part of the banks culture


These banks have to realize that these banks havent innovated in a long time, said Sallie
Krawcheck, CEO of Ellevest. [I]s the last innovation that you saw in consumer banking the ATM
[that was invented 1969]? When I was at these companies [Bank of America], everybody thought
the CDOs-squared were an innovation and they turned out to just be increased risk, wrapped in
complexity. So theyre not great at innovatingits not part of their culture.

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

www.canfieldpress.com

29

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

Its very tough because they have these old proprietary systems and every time we would go
through [a discussion]can we just replace them? Its billions of dollars, huge risks, client data.
And every time you look at ityou know whatwe cant make it work. Its getting to the point
where we have like six guys, who understand the programming on the core code. Im not kidding
Im not kidding. When I was at one of the banks, they were worried about them dyingliterally
worried about them dying.

Youre starting to hear some things that are not just changing around the marginsits like a
radical rethinking of the banking business, said Bloombergs Michael Moore. Theres been talk that
some banks are going to have the client relationships and theyre going to do that solely through
tech and some [banks] are just going to be balance sheets that other banks rent. Theyll just be
these pools of capital that dont have any interaction with the ultimate client. And thats a major shift
in the way that people are thinking about how banks work [in the future]. (Bloomberg Surveillance,
04/04/16)

Who owns the future of finance?


In the 2016 Letter to Shareholders, JPMorgan Chase president Jamie Dimon discussed the
banks efforts to innovate. In FY2015, JPMorgan spent more than $9 billion in technology with
more than 30% dedicated to new investments for the future. The bank employs more than
40,000 technologists, ranging from programmers and analysts to systems engineers and
application designers. JPMorgan operates 31 data centers, 67,000 physical servicers globally
and 29,920 databases. There are many new technologies that I will not discuss here (think
cloud, containerization and virtualization) but which will make every single part of this ecosystem
increasingly more efficient over time, wrote Dimon. The bank has thousands of digital projects
under development to enhance and expand mobile delivery of services to consumers, global
wealth management, commercial banking, small business and commercial term lending.

Dimon addressed the impact of FinTech on the banking industry, writing:

If you look at the banking business over decades, it has always been a huge
user of new technologies. This has been going on my entire career, though
it does appear to be accelerating and coming at us from many different
angles. While many FinTech firms are good at utilizing new technologies, we
should recognize that they are very good at analyzing and fixing business
problems and improving the customer experience (i.e., reducing pain
points). Sometimes they find a way to provide these services more efficiently
and in a less costly manner; for example, cloud services. And sometimes
these services are not less expensive but provide a faster and simplified
experience that customers value and are willing to pay for. You see this in
some FinTech lending and payment services.

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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30

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

It is unquestionable that FinTech will force financial institutions to move more


quickly, and banks, regulators and government policy will need to keep pace.
Services will be rolled out faster, and more of them will be executed on a
mobile device. FinTech has been great at making it easier and often less
expensive for customers and will likely lead to many more people, including
more lower-income people, joining the banking system in the United States
and abroad.
All businesses have clear weak spots, and those weaknesses will be
and should beexploited by competitors. This is how competitive markets
work. One of the areas we spend a lot of time thinking and worrying about
is payments. Part of the payments system is based on archaic, legacy
architecture that is often unfriendly to the customer.
Right now, we are one of the biggest payments companies in the world
(across credit and debit cards, merchant payments, global wire transfers,
etc.). But that has not lulled us into a false sense of securityand we know
we need to continue to innovate aggressively to grow and win in this area.
The trifecta of Chase Paymentech, ChaseNet and Chase Pay, supported by
significant investment in innovation, has us very excited and gives us a great
opportunity to continue to be one of the leading companies in the payments
business.
In conjunction with six partner banks, Chase is launching a P2P solution
with real-time funds availability. The new P2P solution will securely make
real-time funds available through a single consumer-facing brand. Chase
and the partner banks represent 60% of all U.S. consumers with mobile
banking apps. We intend to keep P2P free for consumers, and the network
consortium is open for all banks to join. We are absolutely convinced that the
trifectaChase Paymentech, ChaseNet and Chase Paywill be dramatically
better, cheaper and safer for our customers and our merchants. (Letter to
Shareholders, Jamie Dimon, 04/06/16)
In a Bloomberg interview, Dimon expanded on his thoughts about the disruption thats occurring in
the financial services industry:

[At JPMorgan Chase,] we use technology to make it cheaper, better, and faster for the
client. And then if you have the most flow, you can win. Now, having said that, Silicon
Valley wants to take on this business. They think they see an opening. Other Internet
companies such as Amazon, which have large user bases, may also want to monetize

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

www.canfieldpress.com

31

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

their user data to grow into the lending business. Many payment companies are growing
consumer and SME lending.
Lets look at lending, where theyre using big data for the credit side. And its just credit
data enhanced, by the way, which we do, too. Its nothing mystical. But theyre very good
at reducing the pain points. They can underwrite it quicker usingIm just going to call it
big data, for lack of a better term: Why does it take two weeks? Why cant you do it in 15
minutes?
For example, they might lend to one of our customers whos got a $200,000 JPMorgan
Chase loan, and this person wants to get another $20,000 for a new truck or a piece of
equipment. And what does he do? He goes with them, because he gets it in 15 minutes. If
he goes back to the bank, he may have to go through this whole big long process for that
$20,000.
Can we do something like that? Of course we can. Ive asked our people, Why dont we
just put a revolver on top of our basic loan? Make it easier for the client.
If you ask me, the biggest risk will be in the payment systems. I think the banks are pretty
good at using digital technology to make it easier for customers. We have 23million
customers who bank on their phones now. It will be a challenge for anyone to be better,
faster, cheaper than us. But some people think branchless banks can compete, and that
can prove true in some cases.
For the most part I think those things [e.g., equity, debt, deposit accounts, et cetera] will
still be taking place in the banking system, although some will maybe move on. Im hoping
not the main payment systems and deposit businesses, but its possible someone comes
up with something great.
One of the issues with some of these [FinTech] lenders is going to be, where will their
provider of credit be when theres a crisis? Thats why some of these smarter services,
to support their operations, are courting more permanent capital. They want a source of
longer-term funding that can survive a crisis.
[I]f they become big and significant, theyre going to be regulated, too, eventually. The
government isnt going to say, Were going to regulate banks, but well leave these other
companies alone. I think the regulators want to make sure that they have some form of
regulation on anything systemic. We like our hand. But, you know, honestly, who owns

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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32

DIGITAL BANKING

MARCH / APRIL 2016

the future? Just because you have a good hand today doesnt mean its good tomorrow.
And some of the things were doing may become very disadvantageous at some point.
(Bloomberg Markets, John Micklethwait, 03/01/16)

Will disruptive technology trigger the breakup of the TBTF banks?


In a surprise move, Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve (and former
Goldman Sachs executive), called for the break-up of the Too Big to Fail banks, arguing that the
TBTF institutions have a risk that cant be determined by the Fed and threatens the stability of the
U.S. financial system. On Project Syndicate, Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the IMF
and professor at MIT Sloan School of Management, agreed with Kashkaris call to break up the
TBIF banks, writing:

Kashkaris timing coincides with the arrival of new blockchain technology,


which makes it possible to organize financial transactions in a more
decentralized way. Various versions of this technology are either already
available or currently under development and there is a very real prospect
that this will reduce transaction costs across much of the financial sector.
Most important, blockchain technology has the potential to reduce
substantially, or even eliminate, the value of being a trusted intermediary
such as a large bank.
Kashkari will lead the way to rethinkingand, one hopes, endingthe TBTF problem in traditional
big banks. In a blockchain world, he and his colleagues are likely to work hard to prevent any
variant of TBTF from reappearing. (Project Syndicate, Simon Johnson, 02/29/16)

Technology is upending established workflows and processes in the financial services industry.
Tasks once handled with paper money, bulky computers, and human interaction now are being
completed entirely via digital interfaces, wrote BI Intelligences Evan Bakker. Given how
pervasive financial services are across the globe, the disruption opportunity for FinTech startups
is massive. Startups, some of which have garnered blockbuster investments, are re-imagining
almost every type of financial activity. Meanwhile, the old guard is trying to solve the puzzle the
FinTech revolution presentshow can incumbents benefit from the rise of digital, and how can
they avoid obsolescence? (The FinTech Ecosystem Report, Evan Bakker, 12/17/16)

2016 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved. 

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33

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