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Gas based generation
Yasir Altaf
Natasha Bhan
Power generation deficit in India is immense and growing. Recognizing the need to bridge the demand supply
gap for sustaining the India economic growth story, government is seeking to add large scale capacity. In
such a scenario, the only way to carbon neutrality while achieving energy security is to expand
through renewable energy (RE). India has abundant renewable energy potential in both wind and
solar supported by one of the largest programmes in the world for deploying these resources.
The RE capacity addition has increased from 4 GW in 2002‐03 to 15 GW currently. The development
of wind energy has been at the forefront of all the renewable action and has achieved a CAGR of 25
percent over the last five years. In addition, the recent launch of Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar
Mission (JNNSM) to bring 22 GW of solar power by 2022 testifies India’s priority of catapulting the
status of RE from a peripheral role to that of a significant source of electricity generation.
Higher shares of RE, particularly wind and solar, in the generation mix increases the need for flexible
back‐up or higher reserves on the generators to cover for intermittency and unpredictable
production. Intermittency and unpredictable generation in wind and solar arises mainly due to their
inherent nature and high probability of forecasting errors. A reliable grid operation requires load
generation balance. Hence backup reserves are needed because of the intermittency and
unpredictable nature of wind and solar to meet any unserved demand. In practice, this can be
achieved by adequate installed capacity not operating at full load. However, India has been under
double digit shortages in both peak and energy for about a decade now. Thus the planning and
operational philosophy carries negligible reserve margins for generation outages and zero reserves
for uncertainty around RE production. This makes the situation worse as the Loss of Load Probability
(LOLP) increases with the addition of more RE.
Moreover, all the conventional capacity addition in India is skewed towards only the base load
energy. So the impact of RE integration could aggravate LOLP in medium to long term. Large hydro
plants with storage can meet this unserved demand. However, given the high capital cost coupled
with long gestation periods and extensive environmental requirements, this potential is unlikely to
be realized in quick time. The other option that can play a key supplemental role to meet this
volatile demand is gas based generation such as CCs and CTs. These plants with higher flexibility,
quick response, and minimum turndown can be emphasized for future resource additions to
accommodate higher levels of wind and solar generation without sacrificing grid reliability and
security.
This paper intends to highlight the impact that intermittent and unpredictable generation sources,
such as wind and solar, can have on the addition of gas based capacity and gas demand in India.
Through a case study of countries that have high penetration levels of wind and solar in their
system, the paper will assess the new incremental demand for gas in India. The paper would
provide useful insights for developing higher gas based capacity to support the renewable energy
mission.