0 Votes +0 Votes -

3 vues9 pagesApr 13, 2016

© © All Rights Reserved

DOC, PDF, TXT ou lisez en ligne sur Scribd

© All Rights Reserved

3 vues

© All Rights Reserved

- AP Statistics Problems #09
- Chapter 04
- (6) Random Variables and PMF
- Lecture 08 - Probability
- Uvar Samples
- Assignment Individu 2 Jwp
- PPT Render Ch 2
- 19ProbablityDistributionsF5 Binomial
- Experiments Binomial 1 and Geometric
- G T07 GHSG (Final Version)
- Vassarstats - Subchapter 15a - The Friedman Test
- Tutorial Part 1( May 2014)
- Task(1) Obhoyaronno envisions a Bangladesh where people recognize the intrinsic value of animals and consistently make choices that demonstrate compassion and respect. The organization strives to establish themselves as a credible nationwide non-profit organization, composed of a network of committed, compassionate and trustworthy individuals and institutions that initiates and leads in the promotion of welfare of all animals. Obhoyaronno envisions a Bangladesh where people recognize the intrinsic value of animals and consistently make choices that demonstrate compassion and respect. The organization strives to establish themselves as a credible nationwide non-profit organization, composed of a network of committed, compassionate and trustworthy individuals and institutions that initiates and leads in the promotion of welfare of all animals. Obhoyaronno envisions a Bangladesh where people recognize the intrinsic value of animals and consistently make choices that demonstrate compassi
- Probability G.M.F
- Hyper Geometric
- stat-8
- GATE Civil Engineering 2015_Morning Paper With Solutions
- ch05
- section6_5
- Slides

Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 9

To create a discrete probability distribution we pretty much just list everything that could

possibly happen along with the probability of them happening. We make two rows. The

first row is labeled with an x and the row underneath that is labeled with P(x) (which

means the probability of x). Next to the x we list everything that could possibly happen.

Then, next to the P(x) we list the probability of it happening.

Heres a simple example. Lets pretend that there are 10 kids on a playground. There

are four 6 year-olds, five 8 year-olds, and one 9 year-old. Lets also pretend that we are

going to select one of the kids at random. The distribution that describes their ages would

look like this:

X

P(x)

6

4/10

8

5/10

9

1/10

Note that in this case, x represents the students ages and P(x) represents that probability

of x being picked.

Heres another example. Lets say that we were going to flip a coin twice. Construct

the probability distribution for the number of heads that could be flipped.

In order to get the answer we first have to think about everything that could possibly

happen. If a coin is flipped twice there are only four possible outcomes (assuming that

the coin wont land on its side). The four possible outcomes are: HH, HT, TH, TT.

Thats it. Nothing else could occur. We can see that there is a chance of getting two

heads. There is a 2/4 (or ) chance of getting exactly one head and there is 1/4 chance of

getting zero heads.

So if I really flipped a coin twice how many heads would I get? Nobody can answer that

question without being able to see the future, but what we can say is that there will either

be zero heads, or one head, or two heads. One of those three thing has to happen.

Therefore, my probability distribution looks like this:

X

P(x)

A couple of things:

1) In the above example, fractions are used in the P(x) row. This is often the case, but

decimals may also be used in some cases.

2) Notice that if you add up all the numbers in the P(x) row it equals one. Is this always

the case? Yes. Hopefully you can see why.

Mean of a Discrete Probability Distribution:

The mean of a probability distribution is the same as the expected value of the

distribution. You should remember this. The terms will often be used interchangeably.

In order to calculate the mean (or expected value) of a discrete probability distribution we

use the following formula:

E(x)= = x P (x )

In the above formula E(x) denotes expected value

The formula itself is simple to work with. It simply tells us to multiply all the columns

and then add everything up.

Example: Find the expected value of the distribution of the ages of the children at the

playground (from above).

X

P(x)

6

4/10

8

5/10

9

1/10

So we have:

E(x) =

x P(x)

Therefore the mean of the distribution (or the expected value) is 7.3 years.

Variance and Standard Deviation of Discrete Probability Distributions:

The formula for calculating the variance of a discrete probability distribution is the

following:

2 ( x ) 2 P ( x)

*This formula can be found on page 262 of your text about a third of the way down the

page. This is the formula that I recommend using. The formula found in the brown box

on page 262 can also be used.

*In order to use the formula for variance, we must first calculate the mean.

*As always, the standard deviation is the square root of the variance.

Example: Find the variance and the square root of the distribution of the childrens ages

at the playground.

X

P(x)

6

4/10

8

5/10

9

1/10

Recall that the mean of this distribution is 7.3. Now, using the above formula we have:

2 (6 7.3) 2 (4 / 10) (8 7.3) 2 (5 / 10) (9 7.3) 2 (1 / 10) 1.21

Expected Value has many useful applications. Lets look at one here:

Lets play a game. We are going to use an ordinary deck of 52 cards. I will allow you to

pick one card at random from the deck. (No peeking). The following rules apply:

1) If you pick an Ace I will give you $3

2) If you pick a face card (King, Queen, or Jack) I will give you $2

3) If you pick anything else you must give me 75 cents

Now for the big question. Do you want to play the game?

First of all what does your gut tell you? Is it smart to play this game or should you walk

away? In order to answer the question we need to find the expected value of our

winnings/losings. Heres how its done.

First we need to set up our discrete probability distribution. Ask yourself How many

different things could possibly happen? The answer in this case is three. You will either

win $3, win $2 or lose $0.75. Nothing else is possible. So when we set up our probability

distribution we have this.

X

P(x)

-0.75

But we need to complete the table. In order to do so ask yourself What is the probability

that I will win $3? Since there are 52 cards in a deck and 4 of them are aces, then the

probability of winning $3 is 4/52.

What is the probability of winning $2? There are 12 face cards in a deck (4 kings, 4

queens, and 4 jacks). So the probability of winning $2 is 12/52.

What is the probability of losing 75 cents? The answer to that question is 36/52. There

are 4 aces and 12 face cards so there are 36 other cards.

Now the probability distribution looks like this:

X

P(x)

3

4/52

2

12/52

-0.75

36/52

If you understand what we have so far, the rest is the easy part. We need to calculate the

expected value of this distribution. In doing so, we have:

E(x) = (3)(4/52) + (2)(12/52) + (-.0.75)(36/52)

.173

The expected value comes out to be .173, or approximately 17 cents. Notice that this

number is positive. This means that if you were to play this game many times you would

make, on average, 17 cents every time you played. So the answer to the question is yes.

If someone were to offer you a chance to play this game, you should take it because the

odds are in your favor.

In the previous example we said that we would want to play the game because the

expected value came out to be a positive number. If you were to figure out the expected

value of some games offered at casinos (roulette, blackjack, craps, etc.) do you think that

the expected value will be positive or negative?

Youd better believe that it would come out to be negative. Thats why casinos make lots

of money. The games are stacked in their favor.

Example: Lets play a game similar to the one above. In this case, however, well make

the pay outs as follows:

If you pick an Ace you get $5

If you pick a King you get $4.50

If you pick anything else you must pay me $1

Do you want to play the game?

Ill leave the work for you but if you do it correctly the expected value comes out to be

About -.115 or approximately -12 cents. You wouldnt want to play this game.

The binomial distribution is a special kind of discrete probability distribution. It is only

applicable in certain situations. Four criteria must be met:

1) There must be a fixed number of trials

2) Each trial must have two possible outcomes. One is called a success the other is

called a failure.

3) Each trial must be independent

4) The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial

Examples of a binomial experiment:

A. Flipping a coin ten times.

B. Answering 15 true/false questions by guessing

C. Answering 20 multiple choice questions by guessing

D. A basketball player shooting 12 foul shots

C may have surprised you. Because it is a multiple choice test students often think that

there are more than two possible outcomes. But really, were only interested in whether

the answer was correct or incorrect. So the problem can be looked at as a binomial

problem.

In a moment well examine the formula and notation and so forth, but before proceeding,

make certain that you understand that the formula only applies when you have a binomial

situation.

The binomial formula is made up of several symbols. Youll need to make sure that you

know these.

p

q

n

x

The probability of failure

The total number of trials

The number that were working with in a specific example

P( x)

n!

p x q n x

( n x)! x!

probability that he will make exactly 8?

The first thing you need to ask yourself is Is this a binomial problem? Lets see.

1) Is there a fixed number of trials? Yes. Hes taking ten shots.

2) Are there two possible outcomes? Yes. Hell either make the shot or miss it.

3) Is each trial independent? People sometimes argue about this one, but yes the events

are independent.

4) Is the probability of success must remain the same for each trial? Yes.

So it is a binomial problem. Because of this, we can use the binomial formula to solve it.

The formula looks scary, but it is easier than it looks.

Step one: Identify all your variables.

p = .75, q = .25, n= 10, x = 8

Step Two: Write down the binomial formula.

P( x)

n!

p x q n x

( n x)! x!

P( x)

10!

(.75) 8 (.25)108

(10 8)!8!

P(x)

.28157

There is about a 28% chance that the player will make exactly 8 out of his 10 shots.

Example: Another basketball player makes 72% of his foul shots. He takes 12 foul

shots. What is the probability that he will make exactly 7?

The math is left to you, but the answer comes out to be about .137 or around 14%.

Example: A person is going to roll a die 8 times. What is the probability that she will

get exactly two 4s.

This is a binomial experiment. Even though a die has six sides, really we can break the

problem down into two outcomes. Your either going to roll a 4 or your not going to

roll a 4.

p = 1/6 q= 5/6 n= 8 x = 2

Step Two: Write down the binomial formula.

P( x)

n!

p x q n x

( n x)! x!

P( x)

8!

(1 / 6) 2 (5 / 6) 8 2

(8 2)!2!

P(x)

.260

If you roll a die 8 times. Theres about a 26% chance youll end up rolling a 4 exactly

twice.

The binomial table: Open you book to page 768. Youre looking at a table of the

binomial distribution. It actually continues on for a few pages. Some binomial problems

are commonly found and somebody actually already figured out the answers and put

them in this table. All you need to do is know how to read the table, which is actually

quite simple. The bad news is that you cant use this table for every problem. The best

way for you to figure out how to use this table is with an example. So here we go.

Example: 20% of the people in a certain city are retired. If we randomly select 14

people in the city, what is the probability that exactly 3 of them will be retired?

Were going to use the table to get our answer. First we need to identify our variables:

p = .20 q = .80 n = 14 x = 3

Now from this point we could use the binomial formula if we wanted to, but its much

easier to use the table.

Step One: Find the correct n in the left most column.

In this example you actually need to turn to page 770 to find where n is 14.

Step Two: In the x column put your left index finger on the correct x.

Step Three: Put your right index finger on the correct p in the top row

In this case your right finger should be where p is .2

Step Four: Slide your fingers together.

The answer is .250. Which is the same answer you would have gotten had you worked

through the formula (but using the table is a lot easier).

*The good news is that the table makes life a lot easier. The bad news is that you cant

always use it. Theres two reason why not.

1) The table only goes up to n = 20. So if you have a problem with more than 20 trials

you cant use the table.

2) Only certain values of p are listed. Look across the top row. If p = .2 we can use the

table, but if p = .21 we cant.

The bottom line is that the table is great in that it makes life a lot easier, but it only works

in certain cases. If you are given a problem and you can use the table you definitely

should do so.

One last example: 20% of the people in a certain city are retired. If we randomly select

14 people in the city, what is the probability that at most 2 of them will be retired?

This problem is very similar to our last one but with one major difference. Look where it

says at most 2. The phrase at most 2 is another way of saying 2 or less. So in order

to get the answer we need to find the probability of getting two, the probability of getting

one and the probability of getting zero. Then we add them up.

Using the table we have:

P(2) = .250

P(1) = .154

P(0) = .044

So therefore the probability of at most 2 is .250 + .154 + .044 = .448

*Hopefully, youre understanding this stuff. Now you should go and do a zillion practice

problems.

Problems:

1) Find the expected value of the following probability distribution:

X

5

10

12

P(x) .20

.35

.45

2) Find the standard deviation of the following probability distribution:

X

5

10

12

P(x) .20

.35

.45

3) A game is played with a deck of cards using the following rules. You are allowed

to randomly select one card. If the card is red you get $3. If the card is a black

king you will get $25. If you pick anything else you must pay $4. Is it wise to

play this game? Explain.

4) Assume that 21% of the population plays video games every day. If 17 people are

randomly selected, what is the probability that exactly 6 of them play video games

daily?

- AP Statistics Problems #09Transféré parldlewis
- Chapter 04Transféré parHillary Wooden
- (6) Random Variables and PMFTransféré parASClabISB
- Lecture 08 - ProbabilityTransféré parisurueranda
- Uvar SamplesTransféré par13sandip
- Assignment Individu 2 JwpTransféré parMageswary Rajagopal
- PPT Render Ch 2Transféré parJen Quiambao
- 19ProbablityDistributionsF5 BinomialTransféré parFaZz Baa
- Experiments Binomial 1 and GeometricTransféré parGiang Nguyễn Trường
- G T07 GHSG (Final Version)Transféré parboxerxx7
- Vassarstats - Subchapter 15a - The Friedman TestTransféré parJohn Vosovichjs
- Tutorial Part 1( May 2014)Transféré parEvan Chin
- Task(1) Obhoyaronno envisions a Bangladesh where people recognize the intrinsic value of animals and consistently make choices that demonstrate compassion and respect. The organization strives to establish themselves as a credible nationwide non-profit organization, composed of a network of committed, compassionate and trustworthy individuals and institutions that initiates and leads in the promotion of welfare of all animals. Obhoyaronno envisions a Bangladesh where people recognize the intrinsic value of animals and consistently make choices that demonstrate compassion and respect. The organization strives to establish themselves as a credible nationwide non-profit organization, composed of a network of committed, compassionate and trustworthy individuals and institutions that initiates and leads in the promotion of welfare of all animals. Obhoyaronno envisions a Bangladesh where people recognize the intrinsic value of animals and consistently make choices that demonstrate compassiTransféré parIsmail Shoaib
- Probability G.M.FTransféré parClaudio Amaury C. Jiménez
- Hyper GeometricTransféré parChinyeaka John Onam
- stat-8Transféré parMiller Yamson
- GATE Civil Engineering 2015_Morning Paper With SolutionsTransféré parkishanrwt
- ch05Transféré parHRish Bhimber
- section6_5Transféré parChandrachuda Sharma
- SlidesTransféré parayesha ameed
- Boas the Measuremnet of Variable Quantities ([1906])Transféré parMarcelo Silvano de Camargo
- Basic r Poisson SimulationTransféré parkaliman2010
- AssTransféré parTanmaiy Bhateja
- Digital Color Cameras - Spectral ResponseTransféré parJorge Leandro
- Spectral Subtraction Based on Minimum StatisticsTransféré partension1117
- 3. Probability DistributionTransféré parIbrahim Hashim
- Math - 10 Steps - Final FormatTransféré parTrisha Cabral
- MATH - 10 STEPS - FINAL FORMAT.docxTransféré parTrisha Cabral
- GOVPUB-C13-bd61ca79afcafb19c48490fcc9e066ac.pdfTransféré parkilmaster
- FRR 2016-1 Modelling the Effect of Fluctuation in Nonlinear Systems Using Variance AlgebraTransféré parHugo Hernández

- Comparison of Psychological Variables within different positions of players of the state Junior boys ball Badminton players of ManipurTransféré parInternational Organization of Scientific Research (IOSR)
- AnnTropMedPublicHealth_2017_10_6_1537_222665Transféré parKenneth Gascon Jermice
- Meena RambocosTransféré parNikitha Anne
- STAT501 Complex SurveyTransféré parPercy Soto Becerra
- artikel s ap 8Transféré parpartayuda
- Norms for the Visual Object and Space Perception Battery-AbbreviatedTransféré parLaura Dap
- AK09Transféré parKhaled Saif Al-hakimi
- Part 2 Rothart Empirical Research MethodsTransféré parjulile
- Advanced AI Bias Variance Tradeoff ReportTransféré parHaftamu Brhan
- Atenuasi Sesar Campbell Bozorgnia 2008Transféré parUnwanus Sa'adah
- distribusi_frekuensi_1Transféré parabu_ali59
- Normal Distribution - Wikipedia, The Free EncyclopediaTransféré parLieu Dinh Phung
- An Insight in Statistical TechniquesTransféré parRodrigo Chang
- RM2Transféré parAnonymous KS0gHX
- 20185644444444444Transféré parAnonymous Z1fnzQk
- Linux Guide3Transféré parlina
- Chapter 1 Introduction to Statistics for EngineersTransféré parEngid
- Cluster Analysis Using SPSSTransféré parroi_marketing
- 000 MacrosTransféré parRiko Aditama
- Abraira, Vargas - 1999 - Generalization of the Kappa Coefficient for Ordinal Categorical Data, Multiple Observers and Incomplete DesignsTransféré parAndré Luiz Lima
- Quick Stata GuideTransféré parHoo Suk Ha
- Langerak,_Hultink_&_Robben.pdfTransféré parChrist Hernandez
- 2040 W16 T2 W SolutionsTransféré parMO
- Baskin.enright.2004.Intervention.studies.on.Forgiveness.a.meta AnalysisTransféré parAdina Solomon
- Detailed SyllabusTransféré parGajendra Singh
- StatisticsTransféré parSushant Patil
- MB0040 MQP Answer KeysTransféré parajeet
- thorndike1995.pdfTransféré parWidad Fethallah
- 22290Transféré parAndersonHaydar
- fb0c38a8-fghjconcrete-magazine-free-movement.pdfTransféré parMohit Rajai

## Bien plus que des documents.

Découvrez tout ce que Scribd a à offrir, dont les livres et les livres audio des principaux éditeurs.

Annulez à tout moment.