UNOSAT Climate Service

Drought Monitoring

Weekly Update
18 Feb 2016

Weekly Update Report no. 01

18 Feb 2016

Geneva, Switzerland

UNOSAT Contact:
Email: unosat@unitar.org
T: +41 22 767 4020 (UNOSAT Operations)
24/7 hotline: +41 76 487 4998

Postal Address:
UNITAR UNOSAT, IEH
Chemin des Anmones 11,
CH-1219, Genve, Suisse

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Drought Monitoring | Weekly Update Report no. 01 | 18 February 2016

Drought Monitoring in Southern Africa

(Feb 01 Feb08, 2016)

Overview
Southern African countries are facing severe drought conditions with significant decrease in cropland due to
potential El Nino effects in the region with over 14 million people directly or indirectly affected (Source: WFP).
About 70% of total population in the region depend on agriculture and it has been estimated that close to 30
million people are at a risk for food insecurity. With the request from UN OCHA-ROSA (Regional Office for
Southern Africa), UNITAR-UNOSAT is monitoring the situation with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) anomaly. The analysis was conducted from Feb 01 Feb 08, 2016.
Area of interest primarily includes the following countries: Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique,
Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
Exposure estimates of population (from WorldPOP) and agricultural land (from ESAs GlobLandCover) based on Normalized
Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies from MODIS data (Source: NASA/GSFC/GIMMS)

2.4

8.4

Million hectares of agricultural land potentially

affected by severe drought conditions

Million people living in open areas potentially

affected by severe drought

IMPORTANT NOTE: It is possible that the population exposure has been underestimated as NDVI anomalies
are direct representation of changes in vegetation conditions and might not include urban settlements. So the
estimate indicates the population living directly on the land that is under potential severe drought conditions.

Changes in vegetation conditions

Time Period: Feb 01 2016 Feb 08 2016
Analysis: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly shows the areas with above or below
normal vegetation conditions compared to a ten year average of the same time period (2001-2011). NDVI
anomaly is generally used as an indicator for drought related conditions. 8-day NDVI composite data was
acquired from Terra (MODIS) at 250m resolution. Negative NDVI values classified as "Below Normal" indicate
potential increase of drought conditions, values "Above Normal" (positive NDVI values) usually indicate
unusual rainfall while values around zero or "Normal" indicate no change.
Results: Map below shows the NDVI anomaly of eleven countries in Southern Africa. Preliminary analysis
shows that the most affected are Mozambique, Swaziland, Zimbabwe and southern Madagascar. In terms of
ratio of population affected, Mozambique and Swaziland has the most number of people affected. Mozambique
and Zimbabwe has the most number of affected agricultural lands

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Drought Monitoring | Weekly Update Report no. 01 | 18 February 2016

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Drought Monitoring | Weekly Update Report no. 01 | 18 February 2016

Population Exposure to Potential Drought Conditions

Potential population exposure to NDVI anomaly was calculated by estimating number of people living within
defined NDVI anomaly classes that showed severe negative changes. WorldPOP dataset (population
distribution) at 1km resolution was aggregated to estimate the affected population. Please note that these
estimates shows the population living directly on the affected land, and it might not take into consideration the
settlement areas. Heavy cloud cover in many countries might also have led to underestimation of the values.

Country

Population exposure to
Potential Drought Conditions

Total Population

Mozambique

1,543,179

23,612,121

Angola

648,873

19,033,764

Zimbabwe

602,622

13,063,103

Madagascar

544,251

20,831,055

Zambia

458,164

13,195,794

Malawi

393,136

14,822,853

Swaziland

246,242

1,192,674

Lesotho

72,664

2,014,891

Namibia
Total

14,388
8,397,069

2,269,648
163,170,729

Table 1 shows the population living directly on the areas potentially under severe drought conditions

Agricultural Land Exposure to Potential Drought Conditions

Agricultural land exposure to NDVI anomaly was calculated by estimating cropland area within defined NDVI
anomaly classes. ESAs GlobCover at 300m resolution was utilized to extract cropland data.

Country

Agricultural Land Exposure to

Potential Drought Conditions (ha)

Total Agricultural
Land(ha)

Mozambique

987,738

14,005,341

Zimbabwe

186,636

8,438,484

Madagascar

176,928

2,044,475

Zambia

90,438

4,412,611

Angola

71,431

10,039,317

Swaziland

67,307

451,018

Malawi

41,855

2,736,027

Namibia

14,741

3,112,103

Lesotho
Total

5,648
1,642,721

817,795
46,057,172

Table 2 shows the potential drought affected agricultural lands

Summary
Preliminary analysis shows very severe changes in vegetation conditions, especially in Mozambique,
Swaziland, and Lesotho, parts of Zimbabwe and south of Madagascar. This assessment has not yet
been validated in the field. Please send feedback/questions to UNITAR-UNOSAT.
___________________________________________

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Drought Monitoring | Weekly Update Report no. 01 | 18 February 2016

This document is part of an ongoing climate services project of UNITAR-UNOSAT. Info at:
http://www.unitar.org/unosat/ in support of international humanitarian assistance and created to respond to the
needs of UN agencies and their partners.
UNOSAT Contact:
Email: unosat@unitar.org
T: +41 22 767 4020 (UNOSAT Operations)
24/7 hotline: +41 76 487 4998

Postal Address:
UNITAR UNOSAT, IEH
Chemin des Anmones 11,
CH-1219, Genve, Suisse

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