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The Political Environment can be simply described as the laws and regulations that
business has to follow in order to make sure the business owners do not get
arrested, or have the business fined for noncompliance of some regulation.
Laws are made by politicians - who enact these laws based on the likelihood they
will get re-elected. The political environment is affected and effected by politicians
who in turn are influenced by changes and challenges in the social - cultural
environment (languages, ethnicity, immigration etc.), challenges in the economic
environment (currency exchange rates, corporate activity, unemployment rates)
and also to some extent the geographic environment in terms of how the region is
laid out, rivers, mountains, proximity to other countries, weather, seasons etc.
This includes the political system, the government policies and attitude towards the
business community and the unionism. All these aspects have a bearing on the
strategies adopted by the business firms. The stability of the government also
influences business and related activities to a great extent. It sends a signal of
strength, confidence to various interests groups and investors. Further, ideology of
the political party also influences the business organization and its operations. For
e.g. Coca-Cola, a cold drink widely used even now, had to wind up operations in
India in late seventies. Again the trade union activities also influence the operation
of business enterprises. Most of the labor unions in India are affiliated to various
political parties. Strikes, lockouts and labor disputes etc. also adversely affect the
business operations. However, with the competitive business environment, trade
unions are now showing great maturity and started contributing positively to the
success of the business organization and its operations through workers
participation.
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amongst the scientific, business and intellectual community is that it would be
beneficial, if negotiated properly. Power generation is one area where the deal is
said to have probable benefits. India remains critically deficient in power
generation, with large parts of the country, including metros, suffering from severe
power shortages. This has had a major impact on the growth of small business
units, especially in manufacturing. Since nuclear energy can be used to generate
power, it appears that the deal could help meet the shortage, and thus, presents a
huge opportunity for big business houses. Each major political alliance in India has
its support base comprised of various business houses, and each alliance feels the
pressure to make sure the deal goes through when it is in power, to ensure the
maximum benefit for its support base. Simultaneously, policy changes such as
decentralizing power production, removing subsidies or limiting power theft are
often prevented, as those would enable the entry of other players into the sectors. It
is like a double whammy effect.
Two other areas where the impact of the political-business nexus can be seen are
agriculture and retail. Organized retail presents a massive opportunity for India to
broad base its growth, and help kick start the agriculture sector, with estimates
ranging from $ 500 billion to over $ 1 trillion. A large amount of agricultural
produce in India is wasted each year due to the lack of cold storage, to the tune of
$ 7 billion. Investments, both foreign and domestic, should be welcomed in this
sector, as well as initiatives to promote local small businesses. Yet, the whole
sector has been dominated by big players, who would rather establish consolidated
supply chain which would squeeze prices all along the retail chain.
On a broader governance level, the negative impact of the political business nexus
can be observed. Running for public office in India is an incredibly expensive
proposition and campaign financing remains murky, with virtually no
accountability. This works perfectly to the advantage of the business lobbies, in
exercising control over political parties. The labor market also remains highly
informal and unorganized, as this keeps labor prices cheap. Another good example
is the real estate sector, where acquisition of land for commercial or private
purposes remains incredibly difficult, for businesses which want to establish
themselves. It needs to be pointed out that these phenomena were not the creation
of the big players today, but it works to their benefit today to ensure that the status
quo remains.
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It is entirely likely that the influence of this group would diminish with the passage
of time, and that fears about it would prove unfounded. Yet, in the Indian context,
there needs to be a greater awareness of the dangers posed by such developments,
and how they could impact the overall growth story.
2008-09-24 13:24
There exists a strong relationship between a country’s development
strategy and its political system. Authoritarianism or democracy has an unfailing
influence on the pace of development and justice. Political institutions always
dominate the fate of nations in many ways. The strategy of economic development
pursued by a country is the outcome of its political system, which, in turn also
determines its success or failure.
The rate of economic growth and the level of economic and social development
represent the well-being and prosperity of an economy and political stability
indicates the well-being of its political institutions. When one looks at the
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economy and politics of a country, there arise a number of questions. For example,
what is the role of political institutions in development? Which kind of political
institutions (democracy or dictatorship) help or hinder economic growth and
its’trickle-down’ effect? Is there a trade-off between economic, political and civil
liberties and economic growth? What is the role of income distribution, poverty
alleviation and other social welfare provisions in determining economic
performance?
The conventional economics, somehow, fails to answer these questions mainly
because it is devoid of the role of the state or that of political institutions, which
are treated exogenously in all discussions. The answer can only emerge if the role
of the state is treated endogenously. This is done in what is termed as the ’New
Political Economy’, which is, in fact, a revival of what, at one time back in history,
was known as political economy.
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• Dictatorial regimes lead to poor economic growth (African and Latin
American experience)
As the hypotheses are contradictory and inconsistent, the picture is hazy and no
categorical conclusion can be made. Nonetheless, the fact remains that political
institutions play a crucial and relevant role in the process of economic growth and
development. The way political institutions influence the pace of economic growth
is not something which is quantifiable nor is it a matter of trade-off between
economic and civil liberties and economic growth. It is something, which is not
easy to notice, understand, or explain in concrete terms. It is, in fact, a subtle
relationship, which has to be qualitatively analyzed and that too with great caution.
An attempt to reconcile the first two hypotheses and last two again makes it clear
that both democratic institutions and dictatorial regimes are practiced in different
countries in different ways and it is this variation that makes all the difference to
the attainment of economic growth. Countries can be more democratic or less
democratic in terms of the basic democratic tenets of regular and reasonably free
and fair, multi-party elections and dispensation of economic and civil liberties. It
therefore, follows that in democratic countries, where these two conditions are
partly met, other things being given, the pace of economic growth gets retarded
and where these two conditions are honored and economic growth gets
accelerated. We can make similar statements for dictatorial regimes.
One may use these indices to work out the degree of political stability in different
countries/regions over different periods. This would lead to a number of interesting
hypotheses establishing a link between the indices of political stability and
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economic growth. For example, during the periods of political unrest, or coups, or
change of power, or even intense infighting within the ruling party, the rate of
growth has been seen to slow down and even become negative, essentially through
lower savings and investment rates and also through a lack of vision in the part of
the bureaucracy.
It is now understood that the magnitude of these activities and political instability
reinforce and strengthen each other to quite a great extent with the result that taken
together, they work against the growth process. They require being neutralized,
weakened and counter-acted.
Beyond ’rent-seeking’ and ’directly unproductive activities’, there are two other
explanatory socio-economic factors of political instability that require our
attention. These are poverty and inequality of income distribution. There is a two-
way relation between poverty and political instability in the sense that they lead to
each other and are mutually reinforcing. It is a known fact that poor countries are,
by and large, politically unstable. It is also known that political instability is not
conducive for saving and investment, and thus adversely affects growth efforts,
which in turn, perpetuate poverty. The two-way cause and effect link between the
two traps the economy into an acute vicious circle.
To say that economic growth would lead to equality of income distribution has
became a myth in recent times, though it was an accepted belief during the fifties,
when it was thought that in the initial stages of economic growth, inequalities
would rise, but eventually they would fall. During that era, countries, therefore,
depended on the growth process to attain equality of income distribution. Recent
research suggests that income distribution is a key factor to promote economic
growth. There are two ways, in which this happens. Income distribution influences
growth via its impacts on political stability, and also through other means. For
example, unequal income distribution leads to social unrest, which in turn, creates
demands for changes in the status quo. In such situations, savings and investment
are adversely affected, which imply low growth. Inequality of income distribution
has a dampening effect on economic growth through other means as well. It
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encourages private rent-seeking activities creating distortions in the market-
behavior, which results into poor investment and thus low growth.
It therefore, means that apart from adopting an appropriate macro strategy for
growth with implications for poverty alleviation, employment generation and
social justice, we will have to devise direct programmes targeted at the poor and
the lower income groups and aimed to provide them with entitlements,
employment and (productive) assets, and also to pursue welfare-oriented minimum
needs programmes, which aim at improving the social consumption of essential
goods and services by the poor and the downtrodden, notably in the areas of
health, education, housing, drinking water and also in a number of other areas
through discriminatory pricing and subsidies.
We also have to evolve an optimal mix of new and strong (economic, political,
social, and legal) institutions to provide the necessary support for the promotion of
growth, prosperity, and social justice. For example, a strong legal system, with an
authoritarian regime within the framework of democratic traditions, will play an
important role to provide the required built-in mechanisms to correct distortions
and malfunctioning in the government as and when they occur. Equally important
would be the integrity and political honesty of the people who are at the helm of
political affairs.
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consolidation, deregulations and public sector reforms, to improve main
constraining factors for sovereign ratings of India."
Earlier in January, the decision of the global agency to change the outlook for long
term ratings, which was pegged at BBB, from 'stable' to 'negative' in January
evoked sharp reaction from the Finance Ministry, which questioned the rationale
behind the move.
Credit rating BBB indicates that adverse economic environment could impair the
capacity to meet financial obligations. While 'stable' outlook implies that rating
would remain the same, the 'negative' outlook suggests likelihood of a downgrade.
Standard and Poor's Ogawa further said that in absence of the economic and fiscal
policies of the new UPA government, it would be too early to comment on the
impact of the victory of the coalition at the general elections on India's sovereign
ratings.
The Congress-led UPA, which won over 260 seats in the general elections for the
15th Lok Sabha, is slated to form the government on Friday and come out with a
budget in July which will spell out its economic policies.
Answering question on the weight that rating agency assigns to political stability,
it was said that "highly rated sovereign tends to have a strong and stable political
system and environment and those rated lower tend to have weak or unpredictable
political systems."
However, the relative importance of political stability for our sovereign
consideration could change, depending on the country's situation.
"If the country's political situation is very volatile and current government and
opposition has significantly different views on the economic, fiscal or foreign
exchange rate policies, then political stability is very important for such
sovereigns."
Political factor, Ogawa added, could be less important in case a country has an
acute problem in areas like balance of payments, fiscal deficits, inflation or debt
payments.
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Economy trapped by continued
political instability
The economic recovery is subject to political stability and an environment
conducive to investment and doing business. The Pakistani economy is trapped by
the political scenario and deteriorating law and order in the country. This is
primarily because of the decision from the SC to disqualify the central leadership
of PML (N), Sharif brothers, from taking part in elections by the SC and
imposition of governor’s rule in the largest province of the country by the
president. Furthermore, the attacks made my militants on the Sri Lankan cricket
team in Lahore on 3rd March, 09 has brought the economy in the line of a cross
fire. The damage is two-fold: further erosion in the confidence of investors,
particularly foreign investors, and the government’s inability to resolve political
conflicts and disorder in economic activities.
All this does not auger well for the economy. An economic recovery is subject to
political stability and environment conducive for investment and doing business.
Their political scenario defies both the requisites. Immediate effects of the political
turmoil were visible in the fall of KES 100-share Index by 4.0 per cent with a scare
among foreign and domestic investors. Terrorism coupled with political instability
would create bleak chances of early economic revival; therefore the country might
not be able to meet even the IMF (International Monetary Fund) targets, which
will bring the whole situation back to square one.
Implications of political instability
Pakistan embraced the free market economy regime in the early 90s and has been
managing it since then within the framework of the American model of capitalism,
with substantial support from the IMF, WB (World Bank) and the ADB (Asian
Development Bank) in the form of technical advice and credit inflows. Since 9/11
they have been over enthusiastic to help Pakistan to build a robust economy
because of its strategic geographical location and its commitment to the war
against terrorism, which is now being fought on the country’s soil. Since the 90s
the country has traversed a long way towards building a free market economy by
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taking concrete measures such as privatization of public assets, encouragement of
private investment and strengthening the corporate sector through various fiscal,
monetary and governance measures. Yet, it did not reap the benefits as did some of
the far eastern economies which have various different reasons. Two of them are,
however, conspicuous in different timeframes. During the 90s it was political
instability that obstructed economic growth that averaged to around 3.5 per cent
instead of higher and sustainable economic growth. After the governments change
in 1999, it was political stability, till 2007 sans the vision to structure the economy
on sound economic fundamentals. The economy posted a high economic growth of
more than 7.0 per cent between 2002 and 2007 but it hardly developed capacity to
absorb internal and external shocks for a sustainable high economic growth.
The year 2008 came like a storm with internal and external shocks for the
economy that exposed its weaknesses to the hilt. Fiscal and monetary gains made
during past seven years were lost in the shortest possible time of hardly one year.
Fiscal issues pertaining to fiscal and current account deficits along with monetary
issues of high interest rates on commercial loans, FX reserves, managing high cost
of imports and trade deficit and reducing aggregate demand in the midst of
indiscrete consumer financing emerged as an extremely delicate issue. From 2007
onwards illusive political stability had started giving in to political instability
because of two factors, fully involving the country in the war against terrorism
over a period of six years that fuelled militancy in the country, and the ill
conceived decision on 9 March, 2007 of sacking the sitting chief justice of
Pakistan by the then president for reasons of political expedient.
Political instability coupled with hike in oil and food prices in international market
that touched the highest by mid-2008 and ill conceived expansionary fiscal policy
particularly from November 2007 onwards, quickly eroded macroeconomic
stability that rested on certain illusive parameters like a strong external financial
sector mostly supported by remittances, proceeds of privatization, credit inflows
and lessening of the foreign debt recovery, this was because of rescheduling of
foreign debt of $12.5 billion by the donor countries and agencies. The view point
was that if there had been political stability in the country during 2007 and 2008,
the economy despite some structural flaws would have withstood the pressure of
hiked prices of oil and food in the international market. Perhaps, the government
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too would have not resorted to indiscrete expansionary fiscal policy out of sheer
expediency.
The newly installed government inherited a troubled economy. It had a number of
fiscal and monetary issues to resolve on priority basis. Political stability was sine
qua none for it but ironically this little hard fact did not go well with the two
largest political parties that formed a coalition government at the center, which
lasted hardly a few months. Collapse of the coalition, was the first sign for the
beginning of chronic political instability, it created many doubts in the minds of
business communities. The IMF stepped in November, 2008 to help by injecting
$7.6 billion within 18 months with an initial credit of $3.1 billion in November,
2008. And a number of friendly countries expressed the will to help Pakistan to
overcome the economic crisis. The current political crisis must have raised many
questions among donor and friendly countries about the usefulness of the financial
assistance to a country that is not showing the maturity and ability to put its own
house in order. Wrong signals must have also been sent to foreign investors who
invested more than $2.588 billion during the first seven months of the current
fiscal year, 1.3 per cent higher than the corresponding period of the last fiscal year.
State of economy
The current state of the economy, not withstanding assertion by the government
which is on the road to revival, has a long way to go before it is stable enough to
stand at its own or meet IMF conditionalities. The few points which are of real
concern, which can be addressed only if there is political conflict, resolution and
improvement in the law and order of the country. Theses points are: stubborn
inflation, FX reserves, LSM (large scale manufacturing) and liquidity crunch in the
real estate business. Furthermore, inflation continues to remain stubborn, the SPI
(sensitive price index) recorded an increase of 0.6 per cent to 24.49 per cent for the
week ending on 26 February 09, over the previous week. Food inflation was
pushed up during the second consecutive week, according FBS (Federal Bureau of
Statistics). The core inflation also remained stubborn at around 18.5 per cent. It is
feared that if the current trend in prices persisted it might become difficult to
achieve the target of reducing inflation to 12.0 per cent by the end of the current
fiscal year. The IMF might track back from its inclination of reducing high interest
rate during first economic review held in mid-February, 09.
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The FX reserves have been hovering a little over $10.0 billion since the injection
of inflows from foreign sources like the IMF, WB, ADB, the US, and China. The
government in November 2008 had expressed optimism that with the financial
assistance of friendly countries it would be possible to increase FX reserves to
around $14.0 billion by the end of the current fiscal year. Estimated projection is
unlikely to materialize unless IMF obliges the government to meet its new request,
likely to be made in March for yet another injection of $4.5 billion to meet FX
needs by the end of current fiscal year. Trade deficit has already touched $11.62
billion mark by the end of first eight months of the current fiscal year. An
ambitious programme of privatization for the remaining national assets is on hold
because of domestic political turmoil and violence and liquidity crunch in
international and domestic market.
LSM in general and textile industry in particular have registered negative growth
(the former has registered a negative growth of 5.6 per cent during first five
months of current fiscal year compared to 6.90 per cent growth during
corresponding period of last fiscal year) during first eight months of current fiscal
year compared to the corresponding period of last fiscal year. It has resulted in
laying-off of around one-third work force creating more unemployment. Brokerage
houses have laid-off around work force of around 2000 out of 10000 during past a
few months.
Similarly, slide in real estate and construction business has forced lay-off a large
number of unskilled and semi-skilled work force in the country with the result that
poverty is on the increase. Trend to lay-off workforce is on the increase because of
economic crisis that could worsen further because of political turmoil. One simply
can’t be complacent to state that economic meltdown is a global phenomenon and
there is not much that can be done in these circumstances. The argument will hold
partially but a lot can be done provided political stability is the first priority of
political role players and the government alike.
Conclusion
A shaky economic recovery being executed by managers of the national economy
mostly on borrowed money has got a sever jolt from the recent political crisis and
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militants attacks. Its cost is enormous in terms of the confidence in business
communities, the government and political leadership, a further loss of confidence
of foreign investors. It is high time for political rivals to sit together to provide
political stability for economic recovery which will not be on track even with the
assistance of IMF, WB, ADB and the Friends of Pakistan.
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... And industry
As for the domestic industry, the aviation sector would be hit the hardest by any
increase in oil prices (domestic air fares have already been raised). Air-India and
Indian Airlines may also have to pay a higher insurance cover for flying over the
war-affected areas.
... And interest rates
In case the current level of annual inflation is pushed beyond 5.6 per cent by an
increase in oil prices, there would be upward pressure on the interest rates. Also,
notwithstanding the comfortable $75-billion foreign exchange reserves, any
disturbances in the Forex market can find its echo in the money market (that is, the
interest rates may be pushed up by the Reserve Bank of India). However, the
impact of international events on interest rates is likely to be countered by the
general elections (and polls in some States in late 2003) in 2004; elections usually
prompt the Government to go soft on interest rates. Overall, the prevailing
economic conditions in India do have the potential to cushion much of the possible
adverse consequences of Gulf War II, at least in the short term. But if the conflict
lingers on, a blend of newer political and economic considerations — which are
difficult to predict at the moment — would have to be factored into any impact
analysis.
Iran became the number one country in terms of risk concern for business after the
disputed re-election of president Mahmud Ahmadinejad led to violent protests and
fears of political meltdown.
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According to a monthly survey of the users of Control Risks’ who comprise more
than two thirds of the Fortune 500, interest in Iran surged between May and June.
Before the elections in May the country received only 718 hits on CRF, but this
rose to 5,495 in June, 30 per cent more than received by May’s top country.
The oil and gas sector is likely to be affected by the most significant outbreak of
political instability the country has seen since the early 1980s because it provides
further ammunition for those who have supported additional sanctions against Iran
since the deterioration in Iranian relations with the west in Ahmadinejad first term.
The post-elections unrest attracted even greater interest for a variety of reasons,
ranging from concerns about the safety of travel to the country to questions about
its implications for US President Barack Obama’s plans to attempt to engage Iran
diplomatically and the prospects for the stability or even survival of the regime,
given apparent serious rifts within the political establishment itself over the
election.
China maintained its position at fifth but attracted nearly 30 per cent more hits as a
result of the arrests of four Rio Tinto employees and unrest among Uighur
separatists, which raised new questions about the business climate. The detention
of the Rio Tinto employees was followed by the arrest of a senior executive of
local steelmaker the Shougang Group. This kind of event prompts debate about the
rule of law and the extent to which lines are blurred between the business sphere
and the realms of politics, national interest and security. Information around the
cases remains scarce but some in the business community fear they could
constitute a warning to foreign companies’ employees and will be watching for a
pattern of more aggressive tactics in dealings with foreign companies. Meanwhile,
the eruption of violence between Han and Uighur ethnic groups in Guangdong and
Xinjiang was bloody but should represent a minor concern for most businesses.
Peru and Yemen rose up the risk agenda to enter the top ten in June. Interest in the
former was sparked by the demonstrations in the Amazon region of the country
that turned violent on 7 June, with clashes between demonstrators and the security
forces leaving at least 31 dead, including 22 policemen. The country has
experienced a serious increase in incidents of social unrest over the last two years,
with 238 social conflicts reported in March 2009, up 20 from the previous month
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and just over 50 in August 2007. However, most cases had passed off peacefully,
which highlights the impact of the violence.
Again the oil and gas sector stands to feel the impact, since exploration in the
country has increased considerably over the last two years, with some of these
operations falling in environmentally sensitive areas or close to indigenous
communities, which has led local activists and domestic and international non-
governmental organizations to increase their monitoring of developments.
Growing instability in Yemen, significant for its liquefied natural gas reserves, has
prompted speculation that a ‘perfect storm’ of risks will result in the state’s
collapse. The spike in hits this month was driven by the murder of three foreign
women shortly after they were taken hostage in the north of the country. Tribal
kidnaps of foreigners are common but victims have almost always been treated as
honored guests and released after a short period in captivity.
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uncertainty is not necessarily accompanied by a slowing down of economic
growth.
India is by no means unique among democratic nations in having coalition
governments. This country has borrowed and adapted from the United Kingdom a
form of democracy often called ‘first-past-the-post, winner-takes-all,’ which has its
own set of advantages and disadvantages. In France, which has a system of
proportional representation, and in Germany, which has a combination of
proportional representation and constituency or seat based direct elections,
coalition governments have been more a rule than an exception after the
conclusion of the Second World War in 1945. In both these countries, coalition
governments have not usually brought about political instability.
For instance, there is in Germany a legal provision that an incumbent government
cannot be voted out of power without simultaneously voting in an alternative
government in between general elections. In recent years, for obvious reasons,
many have suggested that India could adopt a similar system to avoid frequent
elections that are expensive to conduct. Those opposed to this suggestion have
argued that even if political instability results in frequent elections having to be
conducted, this is a ‘small price’ to pay to ensure the existence of a vibrant and
dynamic democratic polity. These arguments and counter-arguments came to the
fore in discussions on Indian politics for the simple reason that between May 1996
and October 1999, the country for the first time witnessed three general elections
in quick succession.
If the experience of countries like Germany and France shows that coalitions and
instability do not necessarily go together, Japan and Italy are proof of the fact that
even unstable coalition governments do not automatically result in declining
economic progress. Japan has had a series of coalition governments since 1976,
when the Liberal Democratic Party lost its monopoly on power for the first time
after the Second World War. That certainly did not prevent Japan from marching
swiftly ahead of most of the world to become arguably the strongest economy in
the world after the US, till the slowdown of the 1990s robbed it of some of the
sheen.
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The Italian experience is even more remarkable. In the 50 years since the World
War ended, Italy had an equal number of governments. Thus, governments in Italy
lasted on average barely a year. Yet, Italy today is among the most industrialized
countries in the world. This, if nothing else, should make us wary about drawing
any facile conclusions about the effects of political instability on the economy.
In India, the country’s gross domestic product grew by more than 7% a year, two
years in a row, for the first time during a period of considerable political
instability: GDP went up by 7.3% in 1995-96 and by 8% in 1996-97. Between
April 2005 and March 2008, for the first time in the more than the six-decade-long
history of independent India, the country’s GDP grew by an average of over 9%
each year, three years in succession. The structure of the country’s polity was as
stable or as unstable as it is at present, the difference being that the next general
elections are scheduled to take place on or before April 2009. The months before
any election comprise a period of political acrimony. The situation is no different
this time round.
The final point that needs to be made relates to economic growth itself. An
economy can grow fast but the fruits of this growth can be unevenly distributed
and benefit only a small section of the population. Economic growth has to be
inclusive if it is to yield political dividends. Jobless growth is politically disastrous.
What are the channels of transmission of this kind of shock to the economy?
Essentially there are two kinds of impacts. The direct or first order impacts of this
shock will be the same as what happened in the last Gulf war. In the last Gulf war,
oil prices increased sharply – a concern to all the oil-importing countries, equity
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prices fell sharply, both business- and consumer-confidence were hit as a result of
the uncertainty that in turn depressed capital markets and slowed down economic
growth. Besides, certain sectors also suffered particularly badly including tourism
and aviation industry. The combination of higher oil-prices, weaker confidence
and lower equity prices therefore contributed to slower growth, in the aftermath of
the last Gulf War. We have already seen the similar kind of impact so far in this
Gulf War: the oil price has jumped to its highest level since the last Gulf War. New
records could be broken in the course of this war, if oil supplies are substantially
reduced into the medium or long term. Besides, there is one direct positive impact
that could come from higher defense spending which can offset a part of the
negative knock-on effects and stimulate economic growth. But that cannot be
significant relative to the negative effects.
The second order impact would depend on the outcome of the war and whether the
war achieves its objective of getting rid of weapons of mass destruction and regime
change in Iraq. There are obviously negative impacts of any war. If the war
escalates into a large-scale prolonged conflict, it carries the risk of putting the
global economy in depression. For example, prior to the last Gulf War, the US and
other economies were already weak but the war pushed these economies into
recession. This time since the global economy is already weak; a long-term
uncertainty as a consequence of a prolonged conflict could create a similar
recession.
How the policy makers should respond to this kind of negative shock? In terms of
monetary policy, there is little room for additional easing in the US, as the Fed
funds rate is already at its record low level. Japan being in a deflation trap has little
scope for additional monetary and fiscal stimulus to offset any negative economic
impact of the war. But in the Euro zone given the currency appreciation, and in the
UK, there is some room for further policy easing to counteract any negative shock
coming out of the war.
Higher oil prices will certainly intensify the problem. Japan, China and India are
no exception, since all the three countries are oil importing-countries and they are
mainly dependent on the Middle East for their oil supply. China is the world’s
third- largest consumer of crude, after the US and Japan. It imports one-third of its
oil requirements, 60 percent of which comes from the Middle East. With regard to
the long-term impact on oil prices, it would depend on how badly the oil
infrastructure gets damaged in any kind of extended war and to what extent the oil
supply gets squeezed.
In the short term, this uncertainty in the Middle East will make the oil prices
volatile, but a long-term rise in oil prices is more likely to cut global economic
growth. So the long-term strategy then should be to diversify the source of oil
supply rather than relying heavily on the Middle East. For example, China is
already looking to diversify including Russia as a source of its supply. It is always
a good strategy to diversify, no matter whether it is with regard to the export
markets or the sources of foreign investment or the foreign exchange earnings such
as tourism. Over-dependence on any one source is risky.
In terms of growth effects, despite this negative shock, China and India are more
likely to outperform all of their neighbors. Both are very different economies in the
world. One common characteristic of those two economies is their strong domestic
demand. Although China has been relying on an export-led development strategy
recently, still domestic demand remains quite robust supporting growth.
For India, one major source of foreign exchange comes from non-resident deposits
and, private transfers by Indian residents working abroad, particularly in the
Middle East. If the war spreads beyond Iraq, it is possible that this source of
25
inflows could dry up as it happened in the last Gulf war that aggravated India’s
balance of payments problem giving rise to a crisis in July 1991, although severe
fiscal and external imbalances were the main reason. At that time India just had
under US$4 billion, which is currently over US$74 billion. So India is not likely
to encounter such a crisis this time.
Outside investor confidence is crucial for the capital flow to both China and India,
given the economic arbitrage. For example, although in general China could be a
risky market, the reality is that foreign direct investments have increased over 50%
year-on-year in the first two months of this year at a time when there was a huge
risk of war. This could partly suggest China as a safe heaven at a time of
uncertainty.
In terms of exchange rate effects, China actually benefits from this war uncertainty
in the sense that Chinese Yuan being pegged to the US dollar becomes more
competitive in line with the falling dollar, while Japan is being hit hard by the
dollar weakness that makes the Yen less competitive.
Pessimistic (war goes badly): if the cost of war turns out to be much greater than
anticipated and the West does not find weapons of mass destruction. This would
suggest that there could be continuing global instability with regional
consequences and the recession could get deeper.
The longer the war goes, the more destructive it becomes. In addition, Saddam
Hussein’s best chance of survival is to escalate the conflict beyond Iraq, possibly
by attacking Israel or by portraying the war as an attack on Islam rather than on his
regime.
Intermediate: if war goes well (victory but with significant cost), which means
that the extent of disruption to oil-supply stays within control, and the global
economy gets a boost. Money in the frozen accounts and annual oil revenues of
US$20 billion can be used to rebuild Iraq.
26
Optimistic: if war goes very well (victory with a contained war). This scenario
suggests that the West finds weapons of mass destruction, reinforcing their
rationale for the war. There is a perception that the next move could be after Iran
or North Korea. If something like that happens, we would continue to live in a
world of long- term uncertainty and that in turn would keep the markets range-
bound. Settlement of the Iraq crisis could, by removing ‘geopolitical uncertainties’,
give the global economy time to recover.
ii. If we describe the mater from technical points of views then we will have to
consider the following things:
“taxation
“subsidies
“interest rates
“exchange rates
“public-private partnerships.
28
interfered in the economy by creating state run industries which usually took the
form of public corporations. However, from 1979 onwards we saw an era of
privatization in which industries were sold off to private shareholders to create a
more competitive business environment.
Taxation policy affects business costs. For example, a rise in corporation tax (on
business profits) has the same effect as an increase in costs. Businesses can pass
some of this tax on to consumers in higher prices, but it will also affect the bottom
line. Other business taxes are environmental taxes (e.g. landfill tax), and VAT
(value added tax). VAT is actually passed down the line to the final consumer but
the administration of the VAT system is a cost for business.
Another area of economic policy relates to interest rates. In this country the level
of interest rates is determined by a government appointed group - the Monetary
Policy Committee which meets every month. A rise in interest rates raises the costs
to business of borrowing money, and also causes consumers to reduce expenditure
(leading to a fall in business sales). .
Government spending policy also affects business. For example, if the government
spends more on schools, this will increase the income of businesses that supply
schools with books, equipment etc. .
Legal changes
The government of the day regularly changes laws in line with its political
policies. As a result businesses continually have to respond to changes in the legal
framework.
Examples of legal changes include:
i. the creation of a National Minimum Wage which has recently been extended to
under-18.
ii. The requirement for businesses to cater for disabled people, by building ramps
29
into offices, shops etc.
iii. Providing increasingly tighter protection for consumers to protect them against
unscrupulous business practice.
iv. Creating tighter rules on what constitutes fair competition between businesses.
31
already have the characteristics of a developed country. Its strengths in IT area and
in research and development are evidently more relevant to the U.S. and the E.U.:
India gets much of the outsourced business from them.
In trade negotiations especially, it is important to recognize and leverage the
known strengths and not be carried away by emotional attachments of the past.
More evidence of political factors influencing trade decisions is to be found in the
structure of multilateral trade negotiations. In almost all countries politicians have
to carry key, well-entrenched, domestic constituencies with them before they
negotiate abroad for freer trade. Protection to domestic industry or services is
never given on the basis of economic reasons alone.
It follows that a successful outcome at the WTO, implying freer trade, will
definitely affect one special interest group or the other. That is why politicians
negotiating trade deals have the unenviable task of having to defend their actions
against concerted opposition in specific fields without being able to prove that the
trade pact is for the common, larger good.
Apart from these are the issues connected with the time frame. Most decisions,
such as those in the ministerial text, will be implemented after a long time. In most
democracies, the political horizon cannot possibly stretch beyond five years or so,
hence any talk of abolition of export subsidies for agriculture in 2013 —four years
from now — sounds so far into the future as to be of only academic interest (which
it most certainly is not). Benefits, if any, from the abolition of subsidies on
agricultural products will not be reaped by the present generation of politicians.
This also partly explains why the more difficult portions of the trade agenda have
been shelved into the future instead of being taken up now. These will not become
easier to tackle with the efflux of time but the political costs are such that it is
more expedient to proceed slowly.
32
Parliamentary elections in India resulted in the March inauguration of a coalition
government dominated by the Bhartiya Janta Party, and the National Agenda for
Governance was announced, which referred to reviewing India's nuclear policy
and exercising the option of introducing nuclear weapons. Neighboring Pakistan,
on the other hand, conducted a trial launch of an intermediate-range Ghauri missile
on 6 April. Concerned over the heightening tension in South Asia, Prime Minister
Ryutaro Hashimoto sent a letter to Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee,
calling for India's prudence in regard to its nuclear policy, while the Pakistani
Government was also requested to refrain from any missile or nuclear
development. However, India went ahead with two nuclear tests on 11 and 13 May
respectively.
In the wake of India's nuclear tests, domestic pressure rose in Pakistan to conduct
similar tests. Despite the critical stance taken by the entire international
community toward India's nuclear tests, as shown in the G8 Joint Communiqué
issued at the Birmingham Summit of the Eight on 16 May, and such diplomatic
efforts as Japan's dispatch of a special envoy of the Prime Minister to urge
Pakistan to exercise self-restraint over nuclear testing, Pakistan conducted two
nuclear tests on 28 and 30 May respectively.
The nuclear tests by those two countries not only negatively affected the peace and
stability of the South Asian region, but also posed a serious challenge to the
international nuclear non-proliferation regime centered around the Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT), running counter to those international efforts for nuclear disarmament
toward a world without nuclear weapons. Japan conveyed its position to India and
Pakistan: namely, that it viewed both countries' nuclear tests as intolerable, as well
as regrettable, and therefore was adopting stringent measures such as the
suspension of new grants (excluding emergency and humanitarian assistance and
grassroots grants) and new yen loans.
As for the international forum, the Permanent 5 (P5) Foreign Ministers' Meeting
held in Geneva on 4 June issued a Joint Communiqué. United Nations Security
Council Resolution 1172 (proposed jointly by Japan and a number of other
members) was adopted on 6 June, and a Joint Statement was adopted on 12 June at
the G8 Foreign Ministers' Meeting held in London. This string of declarations and
33
resolutions enumerated the benchmarks the international community was
requesting that both India and Pakistan fulfill, such as the suspension of further
nuclear tests and the adherence to the CTBT by both countries.
In addition, as Japan's initiative, Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi proposed at the
above-mentioned G8 Foreign Ministers' Meeting that a task-force be established to
review the efforts by India and Pakistan with regard to the nuclear non-
proliferation regime and also to consider concrete measures for relieving tensions
and confidence-building between the two countries. This task-force met twice in
London. The Tokyo Forum on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Nuclear
Disarmament was also held in Tokyo in late August, with the second forum in
December in Hiroshima, both jointly hosted by the Japan Institute of International
Affairs and the Hiroshima Peace Institute, with the aim of issuing
recommendations on nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament by key
intellectuals participating from Japan and abroad.
In response to these moves by the international community, India and Pakistan
seemingly changed their stance on nuclear non-proliferation in the desired
direction, with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan announcing in his general
address at the UN General Assembly in September the intention to adhere to the
CTBT before September 1999, while comments by Prime Minister Vajpayee of
India also suggested a forward-looking approach to the conclusion of the CTBT. In
addition, both countries announced their intention to participate in the negotiations
on the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty.
Japan also stressed dialogues with both countries, and State Secretary for Foreign
Affairs Masahiko Komura thus met with Deputy Chairman of the Planning
Commission of India Jaswant Singh during the Ministerial Meeting of the ASEAN
Regional Forum (ARF) at the end of July. Foreign Minister Komura subsequently
held talks with Foreign Minister S. Aziz of Pakistan during the United Nations
General Assembly in September, and when Foreign Minister Aziz met with
Foreign Minister Komura again during his November visit to Japan, he reiterated a
clear commitment, on behalf of Pakistan, to adhere to the CTBT by September
1999 and to bring into law tighter nuclear and missile-related export regulations.
Given these commitments, and the fact that the deterioration of the Pakistani
economy in the wake of the nuclear tests could trigger regional destabilization,
34
Japan announced its support for the financing by international financial institutions
that was necessary for the International Monetary Fund's support program for
Pakistan, and also announced that consideration could be given to partial re-
launching of bilateral economic assistance with regard to Pakistan's commitments.
In the wake of those nuclear tests, the international community also witnessed
reopening of dialogue between India and Pakistan. The tenth South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit in July brought about the
first India-Pakistan Summit talk after their nuclear tests, and the leaders met again
on the occasion of the UN General Assembly in September, agreeing upon
reopening vice-ministerial level consultations. As a result, vice-ministerial level
consultations on the Kashmir issue and peace and security were held in October,
followed by other bilateral vice-ministerial level consultations in regard to
respective areas such as economy and culture.
35
• Provisional suspension of the resumption of Japan-North Korea normalization
talks, of food and other support, and of KEDO progress
• Consideration of measures to increase Japan's own information-gathering
capacity, such as promotion of surveys on the use of visual image satellites.
• Continued research on ballistic missile defense, as well as the early formation
and approval of bills related to the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense
Cooperation
In addition to these measures, on 2 September, Japan also withdrew the permission
which had been granted to North Korea's Air Koryo for nine charter flights
between Pyongyang and Nagoya, and decided not to permit any further chartered
flights. Regarding the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization
(KEDO) as the most realistic and effective framework for preventing North Korea
from developing nuclear weapons, and judging that Japan should not give North
Korea an excuse to resume nuclear weapons development by causing the collapse
of this framework, the Government announced on 21 October that it would reopen
cooperation in KEDO. Japan simultaneously made clear that it would maintain the
above-mentioned measures other than those related to KEDO so as to avoid any
misunderstanding by North Korea.
b) Approach of the international community
Japan's concern over the North Korean missile launch was widely echoed by the
international community. At the request of Japan, the President of the UN Security
Council released a press statement on 15 September. This statement noted the
concern of Security Council members that the action taken by North Korea in
August had harmed the regional fishing industry and maritime freight activities
and run counter to confidence-building among countries of the region;
condemnation was also expressed over the fact that the launch had been conducted
with no prior notification. Moreover, at the 22 September Japan-U.S. Summit
talks, leaders noted that the North Korean missile launch was not only directly
related to Japan's security but was an extremely grave action in terms of the peace
and stability of Northeast Asia. They affirmed that they would use various
occasions to place strong pressure on North Korea not to launch, develop or export
missiles. Two days later, tripartite talks were held among the foreign ministers of
Japan, the United States and the Republic of Korea in regard to the North Korean
36
issue, producing a joint statement. The joint statement leveled clear criticism at
North Korea's missile launch and affirmed the importance of maintaining the
Agreed Framework and KEDO, expressing the resolve of the United States to use
the U.S.-North Korea missile consultations to prevail upon North Korea to suspend
the launching and development of missiles and the export of related materials and
technology. Further, at the Japan-ROK Summit talks on 8 October, both leaders
shared the concern and condemnation expressed by the President of the UN
Security Council, and also agreed that a laissez-faire attitude to North Korean
missile development would impact negatively on the peace and safety of Japan, the
Republic of Korea and the entire Northeast Asian region. At the September
Montreal Assembly of the ICAO and also the October Budapest Plenary Meeting
of the MTCR, members shared concern over North Korean missile-related
activities, with various chairman's statements and resolutions adopted in regard to
the North Korean missile launch.
37
economic crises included the weakness in financial systems, political instability
and psychological factors.
Currency and financial markets later settled down due to the efforts by the Asian
countries themselves and support from various countries, with Japan playing the
central role, as well as from international institutions such as the IMF and the
World Bank. Current account balances and other macroeconomic indicators also
improved to a certain extent, and by late 1998 most countries could be said to have
generally broken free of their currency crises. On the real economy side, however,
there were marked economic slowdowns and unemployment increases, and even
the Philippines, Malaysia, Viet Nam and other Asian countries, which initially had
only been lightly affected, are now feeling the impact.
In terms of the tasks facing these Asian countries, where the biggest challenge at
the outset of the crisis was the defense of currencies, the focus is now shifting to
economic revitalization, structural reform and human resources development,
relief for the socially vulnerable and medium- to long-term currency stability.
Overcoming such challenges will depend first and foremost on the efforts of these
countries themselves, but support from the international community will also be
necessary. Recognizing this, immediately after the outbreak of the crisis, Japan
announced that it would coordinate with the IMF to provide a total of US$19
billion in assistance, and subsequently announced various other support measures,
amounting to an unequaled total of around US$80 billion up until the end of 1998,
and has been steadily implementing them. Japan has been utilizing these funds to
address the challenges as described below.
• Economic revitalization
Capital shortages and a loss of confidence have made it difficult for the Asian
countries to independently implement adequate economic stimulation measures
and employment measures, including the reinstatement of private capital.
Responding to this situation, Japan has announced various assistance policies for
Asia and launched cooperation. For example, in October, Japan announced the
New Miyazawa Initiative, amounting to about US$30 billion, followed by the joint
announcement with the United States of the Asian Growth and Economic
Recovery Initiative at the November APEC Ministerial and Economic Leaders'
Meetings, and then in December the establishment of Special Yen Loans up to 600
38
billion yen over three years as an additional support package contributing to
economic recovery, employment and structural reform in the Asian countries.
• Structural reform and human resources development
While the Asian countries are working on financial system development, including
settlement of private sector debt and non-performing loans, structural adjustment,
development of laws and fostering of industries, they lack the necessary human
resources and know-how. Japan is providing support in this regard through, for
example, the Japan-ASEAN Program for Comprehensive Human Resources
Development, local training for 10,000 personnel and the dispatch of experts to
technical development centers operated jointly by governments and private
sectors.
• Relief for the socially vulnerable
One issue of great concern to all the Asian countries is relief for the socially
vulnerable, who have been the most severely affected by the economic crisis.
Should the destitution of the socially vulnerable trigger social unrest and lead to
political instability, resolution of the economic crisis would be significantly
delayed. Japan noted this risk at a very early stage, and, in addition to such
assistance as rice and medicine, has been actively implementing support measures
for the socially vulnerable using fast-disbursing yen loans.
• Currency stability
The recent crisis resulted in widespread recognition of the problems associated
with speculative currency transactions and other large-scale rapid capital
movements. It has also become clear that the current IMF-centered international
financial system needs reform. In September, Malaysia adopted various emergency
measures, including measures to control exchange rates and regulate capital flows,
seeking to contain the impact of hedge funds and other such instruments. While no
other country in Asia has followed suit, there has been a growing call for enhanced
monitoring of capital movements and some form of hedge fund surveillance and
regulation. Japan is now addressing the urgent task of reform of the international
financial system.
The Asian countries have expressed great appreciation and great expectations for
the massive support provided by Japan in facing the crisis. At the same time, with
similarly strong expectations that the Japanese economy, which comprises two-
39
thirds of Asian GDP, will again become the "leading goose" for the Asian
economy, drawing other regional economies along, it is becoming even more
important that Japan make positive contributions to the development and growth
of the Asian economy.
b) The world economic situation
The 1997 Asian currency and financial crisis subsequently sparked the Russian
financial crisis and spread to emerging markets in Latin America and elsewhere in
1998. This affected not only the Japanese economy but also the economies of the
United States and Europe, raising serious concerns about worldwide deflation.
First of all, in the Russian Federation, plunging crude oil prices led to the
deterioration of economic fundamentals such as maladjustment of the current
account balance and expansion of the fiscal deficit, which in turn seriously
undermined confidence in the banking system. This uncertainty spread through the
entire financial system, including the foreign exchange and stock markets, and in
August, the Russian Government and central bank announced a series of
countermeasures such as effective tolerance for ruble devaluation and freezing of
some foreign debt repayments. The plunge in exchange rates and stock prices
eventually leveled out temporarily, but the failure of consultations with the IMF
left financing on ice, and the Russian economic situation remains bleak.
Struggling with current account and fiscal deficits which left them dependent on
foreign capital even for foreign debt repayments, many Latin American countries
nevertheless experienced massive outflows of capital. For example, Brazil was
placed in a critical position when around US$25 billion in foreign-denominated
capital flowed out of the country over August and September alone. To combat
this situation, the Government announced a succession of different measures, such
as a high-interest policy and a fiscal adjustment program, and the G7, the IMF and
other parties announced support of more than US$41 billion in total (excluding aid
through international institutions, Japan provided US$1.25 billion in bilateral
assistance), avoiding large-scale economic turmoil. However, given its close ties
with the U.S. economy, the destabilization of the Latin American economy has the
potential to rock the world economy as a whole, and Latin American economic
trends will continue to merit close scrutiny.
40
In addition, the economic and financial crises experienced by emerging markets
also affected developed countries, with temporary downturns in stock prices and
other signs of economic slowdown emerging not only in Japan but also in the
United States and Europe. For example, at the end of August, stock prices in the
United States had fallen close to 20% from the mid-July peak, while in late
September the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), a major
hedge fund, became apparent, with economic prospects becoming increasingly
opaque. Developed country governments responded to these signs with concerted
interest rate cuts and other countermeasures.
The recent Asian economic crisis and the subsequent global-scale chain reaction
clearly revealed the weakness of the existing international economic system.
Addressing this will require immediate review of the existing system, not only in
the financial area but also in areas such as trade, investment and development.
Moreover, the economic crisis has not only developed into a political issue in some
countries, causing, for example, changes in political leadership, but has also
impacted particularly heavily on the socially vulnerable in these countries, and
efforts are also needed from a social perspective.
The experience of providing various types of support in the face of the Asian
economic crisis has led Japan to believe that carefully-planned country-specific
responses are vital in terms of avoiding crisis, designing feasible measures for
crisis-hit countries, providing fast and effective international support and
determining the conditionalities which countries receiving support should be
required to meet. Japan is working to contribute to discussions on these matters.
Moreover, while remaining sensitive to the socially vulnerable; technical
cooperation needs to be enhanced in areas such as macroeconomic policy
management, financial technology and fostering of supporting industries.
44
Long story short- In India, Politics is governed by rural population and the leaders
like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi! When it comes to effect of Politics on
doing business in India – it is not all that rosy either...The two main factors are the
corruption and Red tape/ bureaucracy both of which are attributed to the Political
landscape in India. Every time, you bribe a low level government officer, be sure
that some part of that bribe goes to the local corporator and even the ministers.
It may be a proprietary business, a partnership or a corporation, each of them has
to tackle corruption and bureaucracy to a large extent, especially when they are
starting something afresh, involving government approvals and paperwork. They
either survive or succumb.
For small businesses, they have to face local corporators and government officers,
whereas for big corporations or multinationals, it is the leftist political parties and
local lobbies.
Here are some facts about corruption in India:
• India ranks 70 in the corruption index 2006
• In all public services; police are perceived to be the worst, followed by
judiciary
• Bribe Payer Worst performer among 30 countries in Bribe Payer Index
If you are a corporation or a multinational the things just get better, now not only
do you have to deal with corruption but also the politics. Recently there have been
tons of examples of left parties putting hurdles on multinationals entering India.
The one that immediately come to mind is the entry of Wal-Mart in India. Wal-
Mart had to fight an uphill battle for nearly couple of years before it had a tie-up
with Bharti to make an entry. But even after that left parties argued that Wal-Mart
had a “back door entry” in India. The left parties are not only opposed
multinationals coming to India, but also strongly opposes Free Trade and
privatization of public sector companies.
‘India Risk’ denotes perception of the outside world about India – and such
perception may be different from our domestic understanding of what we believe
to be the reality! Different political and economic systems of international markets
impart varying degrees of risk and reward. Risks to international investment
projects are mostly posed by political events. Violent political conflict can have
profound negative effects on foreign direct investment. Unstable governments that
cannot take strong decisions, corruption, inconsistent institutional reforms and
shifts in public policy have a major adverse influence on investment environment.
Government policy can have an enormous impact on investment activities and
investment value. By taxation, regulation, enforcement, litigation, publicity and
even the threat of action, a government erects or lowers barriers, imposes or
relaxes costs, dictates or ratifies standards, relieves or imposes risks of liability —
and thereby — furthers or impedes the course of an investment initiative. This can
affect the future cash flows of a project in that country in a variety of ways. Thus
political developments affect the life and the terminal value of foreign investment.
The international perception of India's riskiness
A look at some snapshots of recent surveys reveals that political stability,
bureaucratic hurdles and the legal environment are the key detriments in
international perception about India.
Political instability
In fact, the very success of democracy itself spells a perceived risk in India.
Consider the hindrances, the politically motivated protests and the Public Interest
Litigations. Not all the political hurdles to privatization have yet been crossed.
Apart from populism, there is an increasing sense of lawlessness that the political
institutions seem not only incapable but also unwilling to contain. At a
fundamental level, these political and democratic institutions have failed to
provide a fair environment and efficient systemic protection to basic human rights
when we look at the horrific events in Gujarat.
Significantly foreign investors may well see Gujarat not as an aberration but as a
confirmation of fears that have helped keep foreign investment in India at
relatively low levels.
Bureaucratic hurdles
The Political and Economic Risk Consultancy also highlighted how the human and
regulatory dimensions of Asian bureaucracy posed major frustrations. Investors
dislike systems with a multitude of rules, where decisions are open to
interpretation by different authorities. Several Asian countries such as China,
India, Indonesia and Vietnam fall into this category. Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia
pose bureaucratic hurdles as well. India has been placed at the bottom of the pile.
A recent FDI audit by AT Kearney supports the same perception. Investors in
particular from the power and utilities and the industrial products sectors cited
bureaucratic hurdles at both the central and the provincial government levels in
approvals as well as subsequent implementation. When considered together with
other investment obstacles that have an impact on the regulatory environment -
including slowdown of the reform process, excessive government involvement in
the economy and corruption – the FDI confidence audit results suggest that India's
regulatory environment is perceived to be the main obstacle for FDI in the country.
The audit surmises: "In the long run, excessive bureaucracy could act as the
47
greatest barrier… by undermining India's capability to materialize investor
interest".
Significantly, the World Bank's World Business Environment Survey finds that in
India managements spend as much as 16 per cent of their time for dealing with
government officials. Despite its ranking on the economic front having improved
considerably from 33 in 2001 to 24, India has slipped down a rank to No. 42 out of
the 49 countries surveyed in the annual World Competitiveness Report. Areas that
have been identified as particularly in need of reform: curbing corruption,
improving the effective implementation of government policies and infrastructure.
In terms of government efficiency, India has slipped rather drastically from 37 in
1998 to 44 this year. India is in the bottom class in terms of assessment on public
finance, the institutional framework, business legislation and education, all areas
that involve government intervention. The lesson to be learnt is consistent: stable
governments and better public policy would go a long way towards putting India
on the world map as a viable investment destination.
The total outstanding foreign investment in the country is declined by three per
cent over the past year. This was mainly due to gradual withdrawal of foreign
companies from power and other infrastructure projects. Lacunae such as the lack
of independent regulators or even dispute settlement mechanisms in existing legal
48
framework have constrained commercialization of infrastructure. Two highly
visible cases of governance failure have been in the electricity and financial
sectors, resulting in an adverse climate for reforms.
While our legal system and an independent and fair judiciary has for long been one
of our hallmarks, systemic delays in judicial process for dispute resolutions have
led to some not unexpected results. Absent means of expeditious legal remedies to
enforce rights behavioral modes and culture develop where there is no respect for
law as the retribution is too late and in the context too little. A market economy
requires a cultural infrastructure of norms – mere laws alone are not adequate. An
efficient justice delivery system can provide powerful impetus to creating an
environment of business behavior, which respects legal obligations.
Public interest litigation, sequential legal proceedings, injunction orders against
implementation of projects, CBI enquiries - lead to a frustrating experience –
strong enough to drive away many investors who can use their money and time
more productively elsewhere.
While the Hon’ble Supreme Court has in a long series of judgments, commencing
in 1995 (Mahadeo Versus Pune Municipal Corporation) and until recently –
December 2001 (Balco Case), has made several observations on the ill effects of
delays caused by injunction orders and limitation on judicial review of economic
policy decisions, the examples of Cogentrix, Narmada Dam and several other
projects in legal quagmire still haunt the investors.
The clear pronouncements made by the Hon’ble Supreme Court in such matters,
do not appear to have percolated down to the other levels of judiciary. Post the
Balco Judgment over a dozen PILs were filed in various High Courts – 8 against
ITDC privatization. There PILs were not dismissed in liming but notices were
issued. Eventually, the Hon’ble Supreme Court in April 2002 transferred to itself
all the PILs against ITDC divestment so that there could be dealt with once for all.
Risk mitigation
49
Foreign investors view India as a very attractive destination in terms of the huge
opportunities that this market (product as well as factor market) offers. But, they
will hold back till their key fears are addressed in the areas of political instability,
bureaucratic inefficiency and ambiguity in regulations are mitigated and there is a
clear movement towards greater reliance on market mechanisms for resource
allocation. The most desirable duty that the government can perform is to put in
place policies that reduce risks, increase returns and ensure safety of investments.
The government can improve private investors' ability to forecast and plan for his
investments and thus reduce perceived riskiness of projects by making relevant
public information available. By encouraging competition, there can be a reduction
in political pressure on governments to intervene in markets. In instances where
monopolies may still be unavoidable, government can reduce risk by establishing
laws and regulations that protect property rights and by enforcing them in a fair
and consistent manner.
50
to the prices charged, as pressure from consumers to keep prices low makes
it difficult to cover costs. It is natural to expect broad popular protest when
prices raise or services deteriorate. Their facilities may become obvious
targets for expressions of other kinds of discontent as well.
• In many cases government-owned companies may be key suppliers to, or
purchasers from, private infrastructure firms. Private infrastructure projects
are particularly prone to receive public criticism and public intervention.
• Infrastructure projects involve typically large investments that require long
gestation periods to bring the projects to revenue stream and thereafter very
long payback periods. The sheer time scale introduces risk of uncertainty
and exposure to changes in circumstances, laws and policy.
• Infrastructure projects are also characterized by high leverage ratios.
Financing of these projects is different from the traditional method of
financing based on the balance sheet support. These projects are often
financed through Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and are structured on a
limited/non-recourse basis. Once investors are committed to projects, they
can pull out only by taking a huge loss. Investors and lenders are typically
unwilling to make investments without adequate and often complex
contractual protection. While negotiation of such contracts is tedious and
costly, enforceability of these contracts although essential, is tough.
Investors are faced with the possibility of changing contractual agreements
or failure by the government to implement such agreements because of
political considerations.
• Arbitration and settlement of disputes tend to be very time consuming and
add to project cost. Infrastructure projects are highly capital-intensive
projects and the costs of delay in resolution of disputes could be extremely
high.
The business literature speaks about socio political risk in many ways. For
example, Weston and Sorge have posited that risk arising from actions of
governments or political forces which interfere with or prevent foreign business
transactions, or change the terms of agreements, or cause the confiscation of
51
wholly or partially foreign owned business property are called socio-political risks.
These arise from the uncertainty of social and political events that affect business,
rather than with the events themselves. Friedmann and Kim define it as business
risk brought by non economic and broad social factors to the business. A socio-
political risk event is any outcome in the host country which if it occurs, would
have a negative impact on the success of the venture and investment flow. So we
can summarize the socio-political risk as foreign investors’ risk or probability of
occurrence of some social and political event (s) that will negatively change the
prospect for the profitability of a given investment in the host country.
Socio-political risk also negatively influences the timing and pricing of the tourism
production process. For example, the tourism destination planned and promoted
with an expected period of launching will not work due to delay in the process of
completion of the facilities. So the huge capital invested by intermediaries in
promoting destinations in international market will go hay wire due to this
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problem. The traffic planning of the airlines will also be largely affected by this
process. Tourism marketing is a circuitry exercise where multiple sectors are
dependent on each other. In a combination they build up a whole tourism product.
The increased expectations of changes and uncertainties in the rules of operation of
airlines diminish reliability, but they would also produce erratic stops and starts in
other tourism investment projects. The economy as a whole would therefore
experience a lack of optimal growth path. Thus, it can be argued that political risk
increases the uncertainty of the environment in which successful foreign tourism
promotion should take place, and hence decrease the incentive to save and invest
in tourism by an individual tourist to a particular country destination.
Any large adjustments in major currencies and global interest rates would have a
significant impact on the economy, though it might not be as big as in other
emerging markets. In a speech at the United Nations last week, Reddy said India,
which began opening up its economy in 1991, had a large stake in the process of
unwinding global imbalances and was willing to play its part in ensuring a
successful outcome .
“While India by itself hardly contributes to the current global financial imbalances,
any large and rapid adjustments in major currencies and related interest rates or
current accounts of trading partners could indirectly, but significantly, impact the
Indian economy,” . Some economists say the United States is responsible for part
of the global imbalances as it consumes too much, running up unsustainable
current account and fiscal deficits, while others charge that China's unfairly low
exchange rate is the problem .
India's economy, Asia's third largest, is mainly driven by domestic demand and the
government restricts foreign investment in government and corporate bonds and in
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the banking sector. The government borrows from the local bond market to fund a
large part of its fiscal deficit and analysts say that helps cushion the economy from
swings in global markets. Indian policy makers are increasingly focusing on
Beijing as China takes over from the United States as the biggest source of imports
for India .
India's bilateral trade with China reached $13.6 billion in 2004. China and Hong
Kong together accounted for 9 percent of India's total foreign trade; although the
United States and the euro zone are India's largest trading partners. Reddy said
India was likely to maintain a modest, sustainable current account deficit in the
near future. India's current account registered a $5.4 billion deficit -- nearly 0.9
percent of gross domestic product — in the fiscal year to March 2005, the first
shortfall in four years.
What’s new today is a crucial and growing gap between the willingness of
corporate executives to accept rising levels of political risk in search of greater
economic rewards and their ability to adequately protect business performance and
economic value by managing this risk in a consistent, efficient, and systematic
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manner. By integrating political risk into your firm’s investment decisions and
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) processes you can better understand your
global exposures and balance the company’s risk appetite against achievement of
corporate objectives.
High oil prices have also contributed to the high global macroeconomic
imbalances. Oil exporters have built up huge surpluses in their current account.
This has exacerbated the phenomenon of excess savings in some countries
feeding the deficits in others. Other than the oil producing nations several
Asian countries have accumulated savings far in excess of their immediate
investment needs. Effectively they were funding investment avenues in
developed countries, notably the U.S. There is no way such a major imbalance
between global savings and investment will remain forever. Some stage it has to
unwind. The consequences for the global economy will be profound and painful
unless there is an unprecedented degree of co-operation and understanding
among central banks and governments of different countries in synchronizing
their respective policies.
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For emerging market economies (EMEs) the global imbalances have deep
implications. Dr. Y. V. Reddy, the Reserve Bank of India Governor, pointed out
that EMEs are not a homogenous lot. Neither their contribution to the global
imbalance nor the consequences they will face when it winds down can be
discussed as if they are part of one group with identical economic and political
characteristics.
The Government of India does not depend on the international capital market
for financing the fiscal deficit. A limited amount of external resources is
provided by bilateral and multilateral agencies. Although there could be a
spillover effect of global developments on domestic interest rates, the critical
factor to be watched would be a possible rise in domestic nominal interest rates.
Cost of government borrowing will go up. Global volatility will however affect
the RBI's balance sheet adversely. Reserve management will take a hit as
currency values fluctuate violently. Then there is the interest rate risk arising
out of the Bank's holding of fixed income securities.
Corporate in India might have to pay more. Spreads can widen abruptly due to a
shift in investor confidence in the international markets. Those companies that
have borrowed at variable rates will naturally suffer more compared to those,
which have taken loans on a fixed rate basis. As a rule, corporates that have
heeded sound advice, including from the RBI, its hedge against currency and
interest rate risks will come out better. Banks in India will naturally face the
consequences of the macroeconomic imbalance. Their exposure to international
markets is limited in a traditional sense. Their deposit base is predominately in
rupees. Their investment in foreign currency stocks is insignificant. Nor can
they — because of regulatory rules — borrow freely in foreign currency.
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The Impact of Political Change and
How to Protect Your Business against
It
Political risk insurance cannot be a panacea for every conceivable political risk
that can confront an international trader or investor. But in a world filled with
political change, obtaining political risk insurance can make the difference
between operating a profitable business and making a costly mistake.
Consider the impact that political change has had on us all. The Islamic Salvation
Front, which is fighting for political change against the government of Algeria, is
an organization few North Americans had ever heard of before the end of 1999.
Yet this group, which has been fighting the Algerian government for decades,
apparently decided to export its version of political change to the United States by
attempting to smuggle bomb-making equipment into the United States around the
New Year. The actions of perhaps three or four individuals from this organization
had a huge impact on the New Year’s celebration plans of tens of millions of
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people. In tandem with the expected (but unrealized) Y2K impact, about 70
percent of Americans decided to stay home on New Year's Eve. The incident also
underscores the need for closer scrutiny of Canadian immigration practices, which
is sure to have an impact on the manner in which Canadians and Americans can
cross each other's borders in the future.
Consider what impact Turkey's accession to the European Union may have on
Europe and beyond in the coming decade. For decades, Turkey has tried to join the
European Union (and previously, the EEC), but strenuous objections from Greece
and other members kept it from succeeding. Germany, for example, has long
expressed concern about the impact that Turkish immigrants have had on the
composition of the country's ethnic composition. Now it appears that Turkey will
soon become an E.U. member. Turks will have the right to travel freely throughout
the European Union (as all other E.U. members do), but Turkey is Europe's only
primarily Muslim nation. There will undoubtedly be a corresponding rise in the
influence of Islam in European life and, because the United States has close ties to
European politics, economics, and culture, what impacts Europe, could impact the
United States.
What about the Panama Canal? When President Carter granted ownership of the
Canal to Panama in 1978, which imagined that in 1999, when ownership was
transferred, a Hong Kong company (Hutchison Whampoa) would spread enough
money around the power brokers in Panama City to buy itself control over the
ports at both ends of the canal. As a result, some argue, Chinese political influence
has a strong foothold in Central America. In granting the concession to operate the
ports to Hutchison, Panama, which has no national army, has virtually assured that
U.S. military influence will be present in Panama for decades to come. This, in
turn, will impact how future U.S. military budgets are allocated and how tax
dollars are spent.
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The impact of political change on businesses is no less significant than it is on
individuals—perhaps even more so. At stake are trillions of dollars of revenues
derived from trading and investing abroad. For a business, the political risks
associated with political change are multifaceted. For instance, the question of
whether China is admitted to the World Trade Organization certainly has an
implied impact on U.S. consumers (cheaper imported goods), but consider what is
at stake for businesses operating in or with China. If China is admitted, businesses
operating in and with China will be given a new level playing field. Suddenly,
China will have to play by everyone else's rule, rather than its own. However, if
China is not admitted to the WTO, there is likely to be a backlash against foreign-
owned businesses. China could make them pay for failure to secure its place in the
organization. If the U.S. Congress fails to approve the entry, U.S. businesses could
endure serious hardships. New laws restricting access to the Chinese market by
U.S. investors could be one result.
For international traders, political risks are every bit as real. Imagine exporting
goods to a government buyer only to discover after the fact that it doesn't pay its
bills or the United Nation has just imposed an embargo on the country or your own
government has just cancelled your export license. Wrongful calling of on-demand
guaranties (for bid bonds, performance bonds, or advance payment guaranties) by
governments happens all the time. Political change only accentuates the political
risks inherent in trading abroad.
The key test for whether a risk can be covered by political risk insurance is
determining whether the occurrence was caused by a government action (a
"political" risk) or was the result of a commercial risk. Insurers make a distinction
between the two types of risk because a political risk is presumably not within the
control of the trader or investor, and a commercial risk is. For example, a provider
of electricity should be able to determine the nature of market demand for
electricity and a realistic price for providing it. A loss derived from inaccurately
assessing market demand or a realistic price for electricity is a commercial risk the
power provider accepts by engaging in a project. However, it may not be within
the provider's control to be able to ensure that the supply of coal required to
operate the plant remains uninterrupted or that the government doesn't arbitrarily
change the tariff arrangement between the provider and the national power
company. Usually, answering the simple question of whether an action was in an
insured's control or a government's control will answer the question of whether a
risk can be covered by political risk insurance.
Since more businesses are trading and investing abroad than ever before, it is
important that they realize that protection against government-inspired risks is
available and that increasingly more underwriters are providing the coverage.
Political risk insurance cannot be a panacea for every conceivable political risk
that can confront an international trader or investor. But in a world filled with
political change, obtaining political risk insurance can make the difference
between operating a profitable business and making a costly mistake.
Opinions expressed in Expert Commentary articles are those of the author and are
not necessarily held by the author's employer or IRMI. This article does not
purport to provide legal, accounting, or other professional advice or opinion. If
such advice is needed, consult with your attorney, accountant, or other qualified
adviser.
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