Urban Transport in China

– Challenges and Catching up with

Reference Countries
The views expressed in this paper are the views of
the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the
views or policies of the Asian Development Bank
(ADB), or its Board of Directors or the
governments they represent. ADB does not
guarantee the source, originality, accuracy, Dr. WU Hongyang
completeness or reliability of any statement,
information, data, finding, interpretation, advice,
opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any
representation concerning the same.

Deputy Director, Associate Professor

China Urban Sustainable Transport Research Centre
China Academy of Transportation Sciences, MOT, PRC

February 26, 2010 1

This presentation:

¾ 1. Background

¾ 2. Main Challenges

¾ 3. Conclusions

2
1. Background
Questions?

„ How to identify urban transport development

level?

„ Is urban transport efficient to combat climate

change in China?

„ What is the priority for future urban transport

faced on combating climate change?

3
1. Background

“Benchmarking” was deigned as a tool:

„ to provide an important reference for decision

makers, planners, and operators
„ to monitor and evaluate sustainability of urban
transport on its quality and efficiency
„ to improve sustainable transport systems at local,
regional, national levels

Where is China? 4
2. Main Challenges
2.1 Economy
2.2 Urbanization
2.3 Motorization
2.4 Modal Split
2.5 Travel Behavior
2.6 Affordability
2.7 Energy Consumption
2.8 Traffic Safety

5
2.1. Economic growth
100000

41796 36601 43561 46280

24430 34661 41480

17228 34279
27169
22480 20240
GDP Per Capita（US $） 18164
10000 11145 11489 10937
8801 9840

6153
2367 4457
3603
1928
2520
2054
1693
1000 634 956
784 830
358
294 448
381 388

Chi na I ndi a Sout h Kor ea Pol and U. S. Japan

100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 2008
Year

Country China South Korea Poland Japan India U.S.

Increasing Rate of GDP per Capita
9.8 9.8 7.3 5.9 4.6 4.4
Challenge 1: While
from 1985-2008（%）
the GDP per capita growth of China is the
How many years should be taken to
highest,
reach the the
level of the related overall
country
-
GDP22per capita
15 is much
30 less than -25 that of 31
in 2008 if the present growth
remaindeveloped
9.8% increase per year.countries, 20-40 years are needed to catch up these
How many years should be taken to How many years should be taken to
countries
reach the
in 2008 if the present growth
with the- continually
level of the related country
31 growth
20 rate
41 by
reach 9.8% or in7%
the level of China 2008 if
the present growth remain 4.6% 6
43
remain 7% increase per year. (year) increase per year. (year)
2.2. Urbanization
90. 0

78. 2 79. 6 81. 0

80. 0
75. 4 79. 1
77. 3
73. 8 72. 5
70. 0 71. 6
70. 2 71. 0
66. 0
64. 6 65. 2 70. 0
60. 0 63. 1
70. 0 57. 0
60. 0
50. 0 49. 1
44. 8 44.46.97
50. 0 43. 0 36. 2 43. 9
40.
40.00 29. 0 36. 2
% 26. 4
30. 0 29. 0
30. 0 26. 4 29. 0
20. 0 27. 7
25. 5 26. 6
10.
20.00
0. 01990 1995 2000 2006
1990 1995 2000 2007 2020 2050
Chi na I ndi a Republ i c of Kor ea Eur ope
Year Wor l d
Challenge 2:NorChina t h Amer i ca
hasJapan
experienced the rapidest urbanization in
F orm e r
Cojust
u ntry a decade
B rita in and F rana cehalf, GIfe rmthis
an y trend
U S Acontinues, we will Ja pan expect
C hina
U . S .S . R.
70% in1 72050,
Ye ar 20-1 840
which1800-1 90 0
will 1reach
785-1 8 65
the1860-
2008 1900
level of urbanization
1920- 1 950 1925- 1955
in
1981 -2003
developed countries
P er iod 1 2 0 Ye ars 100 Ye ar s 8 0 Yea rs 4 0 Ye ars 30 Ye ar s 30 Ye ar s 7 ar s
22 Ye
 2.3. Motorization 1000 0. 6% 779 0. 7% 813
708 575 0. 6% 595
1. 7% 593
446 572
2. 9% 307 3. 9% 385

Number of automobile（per 1000 people）

375
4. 0% 322
255
6. 6%
117 115
100
16. 7% 5. 2%
85

27 7. 9%
2009:>50
25 11. 5% 230
3
12
12
10
9. 9% 4. 3%
9

3 7. 8%

Chi na Tur k ey I ndi a Sout h Kor ea

Pol and U. S. Fr anc e J apan
1
1985 2000 2006
Ye a r

Country China South Korea Poland Japan India U.S.

Annual Increasing Rate of Number
Challenge 3: The overall12.9number
10.2
of automobile（ per 1000 people） 6.8 of automobile
2.2 per6.8thousand 0.7
from 1985-2006 （ % ）
people in china is much less than that of developed countries.
How many years should be taken to
reach the level of the related country
-
However, with rapid
in 2006 if the present growth economic
27
development,
29 33
recent-1020-30 years37
remain 10.2% increase per year.
will be the rapid increasing stage.
How many years should be taken to
reach the level of the related country
How many years should be taken to
reach the level of China in 2006 if
in 2006 if the present growth - 19 20 23 the present growth remain 6.8% 826
remain 15% increase per year. increase per year. (year)
2.4. Modal Split
Share of walk,bicycle and public transport

London 87.0
New York 86.0
Tokyo 71.0

Copenhagen 69.0
Maseilles 68.0

Paris 63.0

Beijing 57.5

Changsha 73.0

Ningbo 83.6

Wuhan 84.3

Yinchuan 84.8
ShenYang 86.9

Hefei 86.9
Challenge 4: Chinese citizens prefer to sustainable transport modes 87.8
(such as
Nanjing
walk, use a bicycle, or public transport). However, there are growing
50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0
challenges to keep these trends in place, and priority the proposed modal
split (Public transport 30%, Bicycle 30%, % and walk 30%), namely the
9
increase in demand and use of private cars.
2.4. Modal Split
Modal Split in Changsha
the trip structure of Changsha（%）

70.3% 51.3%
2007 45.2 3.5 24.3 14.8 12.2

81.9% 43.8%

2002 39.17 17.02 25.71 3.97 14.13

84.8% 28.4%

1998 48.4 23.2 13.2 3.9 11.3

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

wal ki ng bi cycl e publ i c t r ansi t car ot her s 10

2.4. Modal Split
M o d a l S p lit in B e ijin g （ % ）

2007 3 2 .6 3 4 .5 2 3 .0 9 .9

2005 2 9 .8 2 9 .8 3 0 .3 1 0 .1

2000 2 6 .5 2 3 .2 3 8 .5 1 1 .8

0 20 40 60 80 100

Ca r Pu b l i c Tr a n s p o r t Cy c l i n g Ot h e r s
Speed Speed
Cost Cost
Comfort Comfort
Key
Punctuality Punctuality
Factors

11
2.5. Travel Behavior
30 2.5
25
25

Accepted Distance
Speed “door to door” speed
25 2.0
Cost 2.0
Average Travel

Cost(Yuan/km)
20 18
Speed (km/h)

Distance: 3.5-9.3
1.5
15
15
10 10 1.0
10
5 0.6
0.5
5
0.1 0.3
0.0 0.1 0.0
0 0.0
Wal k Bus Bi cycl e BRT Rai l Car Taxi
Tr ansi t
Travel Mode

Challenge 5: As people’s living wages and incomes increase, we should

encourage them, the most cost effective, environmentally friendly and ideal
method
Survey fromof 10
travel for most
Central Chinese
cities, citizens is using bus transit or bicycle, not
2006-2007 12
private car.
2.6. Affordability
Commuter Percentage of Commuter Percentage of Commuter
Mode Expenditure per Expenditure in disposable Expenditure in total income (for
Month (Yuan) income (for urban resident) rural resident)
Walk 0 0% 0%
8%:
Bicycle 0 0% 0%
International
Bus 66 5% Experience 14%
BRT 66 5% 14%
Rail Transit 132-264 8-17% 28-56%
Car 138-368 9-23% 29-77%
Taxi 462-1228 29%-78% 97%-258%

Challenge 6: Affordability is a key factor in choosing modes of transport, the

government should balance all factors to meet the various needs of all
transport users (include urban and rural resident)
13
2.7. Energy Consumption
450
Gasol i ne Consumpt i on per 1000
400
350
peopl e ( Uni t : Ton)

300

250
200

150

100
50

0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year

Bei j i ng Chi na Tokyo Japan Seoul Kor ea

B eijing C hina South K orea Japan
A verage Increasing rate from
2000-2005
14.9% 12.5% 2.6% 1.6%
B eijing: N um ber of years to reach
the current level w ith 14.9% _ _ 3 8
increase per year. (year)
C hina: N um ber of years to reach
the current level w ith 12.5% _ _ 12 18
increase per year. (year) 14
CO2 Emission in Chinese Transport, Storage and
Post (TSP) and Private Car (PC)
450,000,000

400,000,000

350,000,000

300,000,000
tCO2-eq

250,000,000

200,000,000

150,000,000

100,000,000

50,000,000

-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

CO2 Emissions of 'TSP' (ton) CO2 Emissions of 'PC' (ton)

Challenge 7: Gasoline consumption per capita has entered into a high

increasing stage in Chinese cities. However, Limited energy supply and
CO2 emission require us to encourage the development of high energy-
efficient and alternative fuel transport systems 15
2.8. Traffic Safety
16.09.00 14.2 8.10
13.7
14.0
8.00 Preson
12.07.00 10.8 10.8
6.00
10.05.00
6 8.4
Average Level：8.1
3.92 7.7
8.04.00 3.42 3.17 6.3 6.2 5.9
6.03.00 4.8 2.1
1.79
1.50 4.0 3.7
1.02 0.95
4.02.00 0.88

2.01.00
0.00
0.0 ce

h a n ce
Gu ho u o lan d

ou n
Ji n eden
g q g ary

m
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ik Japa
Ha ouGr ee
nn s

nm State

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g s Fr a
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ng
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an
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g
C h ing

Ku itedu
t ra q

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Challenge 8: High traffic accidents require strengthening of traffic safety

Death Rate per 10,000 motor vehicles (person)
management to diminish mortality rates from 8.1 to 2.1.
16
3. Conclusions
„ Recommendation for the future

Infrastructure Transport Equality

Strategic
Priorities
Public Transport Energy efficient

Safety
TDM & security

17
3. Conclusions
„ Too slow and too fast planning should be avoided.
Traffic Safety

Energy Comsuption

Affordability

Dangerous Planning
Travel Behavior area to be avoided !

Dangerous Planning Modal Split

area to be avoided !
Motorization

Urbanization

Economic growth
18
 Thank you for your
attention!
Dr.WU Hongyang
Deputy Director
China Urban Sustainable Transport Research Centre
China Academy of Transportation Sciences,
Ministry of Transport, P.R.China
Email: wuhy82@163.com
Tel: +86-10-58278509 Fax: +86-10-58278509
19
Cell phone:+86-13581651129