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Cycles
Third Quarter 2015 Analysis
November 2015
Physical Market Cycle Analysis of All Five Major Property Types in More Than 50 MSAs.
International turmoil, slow European Union and Asian economic growth along with weak demand for oil have not harmed the moderate
growth in the U.S. economy as more jobs are being created. The consumer confidence index continues to improve and consumer demand
continues to grow. The result is that moderate demand growth has also continued in all property types. The strong dollar has slowed U.S.
exports and moderated manufacturing employment growth, but import growth is fueling demand for warehouse space along with higher
internet sales.
Office occupancies improved 0.2% in 3Q15, and rents grew 1.2% for the quarter and 4.3% annually.
Industrial occupancies improved 0.1% in 3Q15, but rents grew 1.2% for the quarter and 5.4% annually.
Apartment occupancies were flat in 3Q15, but rents grew 1.2% for the quarter and 4.2% annually.
Retail occupancy improved 0.1% in 3Q15, and rents grew 0.7% for the quarter and 2.7% annually.
Hotel occupancies improved 0.1% in 3Q15, and room rates declined 0.3% for the quarter and increased 2.1% annually.
Phase 2 Expansion
Retail 1st Tier Regional Mall
Hotel Full-Service
Hotel Ltd. Service
Industrial Warehouse
Apartment
Health Facility
Retail Power Center+1
10
11
9
8
Office Downtown+1
7
6
1
12
13
LT Average Occupancy
14
15
16
Office Suburban
Phase 1 Recovery
Phase 4 Recession
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The cycle monitor analyzes occupancy movements in five property types in more than 50 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
Market cycle analysis should enhance investment-decision capabilities for investors and operators. The five property type cycle charts
summarize almost 300 individual models that analyze occupancy levels and rental growth rates to provide the foundation for
long-term investment success. Real estate markets are cyclical due to the lagged relationship between demand and supply for physical
space. The long-term occupancy average is different for each market and each property type. Long-term occupancy average is a key
factor in determining rental growth rates a key factor that affects real estate returns.
Rental growth rates can be characterized in different parts of the market cycle, as shown below.
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OFFICE
The national office market occupancy level improved 0.2% in 3Q15, and was up 0.6% year-over-year to a seven-year high. Almost 30
million square feet were absorbed in 3Q15. San Jose, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and San Diego led with 2.1 million square feet of
absorption each. Completions were barely more than half demand growth at just more than 16 million square feet with New York,
Dallas, Houston and Seattle leading the pack. Average national rents were up 1.2% in 3Q15 and rents were up 4.3% year-over-year,
more than double the rate of inflation.
Ft. Lauderdale
Hartford
Kansas City
Memphis
Richmond
St. Louis
Albuquerque
Chicago
East Bay
Long Island
Norfolk
N. New Jersey
Stamford
Wash DC
Wilmington
Atlanta
Columbus
Denver
Jacksonville
Minneapolis
Orlando
Palm Beach
Sacramento
Seattle
Austin+1
San Francisco
San Jose+1
Charlotte
10
9
6
3
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Houston
Los Angeles
Milwaukee
Orange County
San Antonio
5
Baltimore
Boston
Detroit
Indianapolis
Las Vegas+1
New Orleans
Oklahoma City
Philadelphia+1
Phoenix+1
San Diego
Tampa
NATION+1
12
8
7
11
Dallas FW
New York
Miami+1
Pittsburgh
Portland
Riverside
13
LT Average Occupancy
Honolulu
Nashville
Raleigh-Durham+1
Salt Lake
14
15
16
Note: The 11-largest office markets make up 50% of the total square footage of office space we monitor. Thus, the
11-largest office markets are in bold italic type to help distinguish how the weighted national average is affected.
Markets that have moved since the previous quarter are now shown with a + or - symbol next to the market name and the number of positions the market has moved is
also shown, i.e., +1, +2 or -1, -2. Markets do not always go through smooth forward-cycle movements and can regress, or move backward in their cycle position when
occupancy levels reverse their usual direction. This can happen when the marginal rate of change in demand increases (or declines) faster than originally estimated or if
supply growth is stronger (or weaker) than originally estimated.
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INDUSTRIAL
Industrial occupancies improved 0.1% in 3Q15, and were up 0.5% year-over-year. Absorption was approximately 50 million square
feet with the logistics warehouse sector capturing 38 million square feet of the total. Chicago led the pack in absorption while Los
Angeles was the highest occupancy market at approximately 99%. Completions were slightly higher than absorption, led by the Inland
Empire at more than 22 million square feet, but the national vacancy average still declined. Landlords continue to push rents making
industrial the best performing property type. The industrial national average rent index increased 1.2% in 3Q15 and was up 5.4%
year-over-year.
Atlanta+2
Charlotte
Kansas City+1
Nashville
Pittsburgh
Portland
Raleigh-Durham+1
Seattle
Boston
Detroit+1
Ft. Lauderdale+1
New Orleans+2
New York
N. New Jersey
Orlando+1
San Antonio
St. Louis
Tampa
NATION
East Bay
Richmond+2
Sacramento
Wash DC
Austin
Chicago+1
Cincinnati
Columbus+1
Honolulu
Indianapolis
Las Vegas+1
Miami
Minneapolis
Palm Beach
Salt Lake
San Diego
San Jose
10
Denver
Houston+3
Los Angeles
Riverside+1
Dallas FW+1
San Francisco+1
11
12
8
7
Norfolk
Orange County
2
Stamford
6
4
5
Baltimore
Hartford
Long Island
Oklahoma City
Philadelphia
Phoenix
13
LT Average Occupancy
14
15
Cleveland
Jacksonville+1
Memphis+1
Milwaukee
16
Note: The 12-largest industrial markets make up 50% of the total square footage of industrial space we monitor. Thus, the 12-largest
industrial markets are in bold italic type to help distinguish how the weighted national average is affected.
Markets that have moved since the previous quarter are shown with a + or - symbol next to the market name and the number of positions the market has moved is also
shown, e.g., +1, +2 or -1, -2. Markets do not always go through smooth forward-cycle movements and can regress, or move backward in their cycle position when
occupancy levels reverse their usual direction. This can happen when the marginal rate of change in demand increases (or declines) faster than originally estimated or if
supply growth is stronger (or weaker) than originally estimated.
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APARTMENT
The national apartment occupancy average was flat in 3Q15, and improved only 0.1% year-over-year as most markets were at their
cyclical peak. We have been talking about overbuilding for more than a year, but the demand for apartments has been surprisingly
robust, due to the strong hiring of the Millennial generation, providing them with the ability to move to independent living quarters.
Downtowns have both the majority of demand and construction, but rental prices are high, pushing many Millennials out to less
expensive or smaller units. Many downtown markets are now seeing construction of sub-500 square foot apartments that can rent at
sub-$1,000 rents per month. San Francisco and San Jose markets have rents 40% above their 2007 market peaks, while Las Vegas is the
only market that has not yet returned to previous peak rents. Average national apartment rent growth slowed to 1.2% in 3Q15 and was
up 4.2% year-over-year.
10
9
New Orleans
N. New Jersey
Orange County
Orlando
Palm Beach-1
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Pittsburgh
Portland
Raleigh-Durham-1
Riverside
Sacramento
Salt Lake-1
San Antonio
San Francisco
San Jose
St. Louis
Wash DC-1
NATION
11
12
LT Average Occupancy
Stamford
Tampa
14
6
1
Atlanta
Boston
Charlotte
Cincinnati+1
Denver
Hartford
Houston
Norfolk
13
Memphis+1
Nashville-1
New York
Oklahoma City
Richmond
San Diego
Seattle+1
15
16
Note: The 10-largest apartment markets make up 50% of the total square footage of multifamily space we monitor. Thus, the 10-largest
apartment markets are in bold italic type to help distinguish how the weighted national average is affected.
Markets that have moved since the previous quarter are shown with a + or - symbol next to the market name and the number of positions the market has moved is also
shown, e.g., +1, +2 or -1, -2. Markets do not always go through smooth forward-cycle movements and can regress, or move backward in their cycle position when
occupancy levels reverse their usual direction. This can happen when the marginal rate of change in demand increases (or declines) faster than originally estimated or if
supply growth is stronger (or weaker) than originally estimated.
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RETAIL
Retail occupancies were up 0.1% in 3Q15, and were up 0.5% year-over-year. Retailers are taking a new tactic with Black Friday sales
promotions throughout the month of November to try to broaden their sales. The results of this new strategy are yet to be seen.
Occupancies improved enough in 19 markets to move them forward in their cycle position. Even though the national occupancy
increase was moderate, it was enough to move the national average forward to point #8 the cost feasible rent level point on the
cycle. Downtown retail has seen the strongest demand as retailers target the millennial generation growth. National average retail rents
increased 0.7% in 3Q15 and were up 2.7% year-over-year.
Charlotte+2
Dallas FW +1
Ft. Lauderdale+1
Hartford+1
Indianapolis
Nashville+1
N. New Jersey+1
New Orleans
San Antonio+1
Cleveland
Detroit
Jacksonville
Memphis
Milwaukee
Norfolk
Orange County
Philadelphia
Riverside
Denver+1
Los Angeles+1
Orlando+1
Portland+1
Seattle
Oklahoma City
St. Louis
Chicago
Columbus
Sacramento
Stamford
11
12
8
7
10
Boston
Honolulu
New York
Raleigh-Durham
San Francisco
6
3
Austin
Baltimore+2
East Bay+1
Houston+2
Miami
Minneapolis+1
Pittsburgh
Salt Lake
San Diego+1
San Jose
Wash DC
Atlanta+1
Cincinnati
Kansas City+2
Las Vegas+1
Phoenix+1
Richmond
13
LT Average Occupancy
Long Island
Palm Beach+1
Tampa
NATION+1
14
15
16
Note: The 15-largest retail markets make up 50% of the total square footage of retail space we monitor. Thus, the
15-largest retail markets are in bold italic type to help distinguish how the weighted national average is affected.
Markets that have moved since the previous quarter are shown with a + or - symbol next to the market name and the number of positions the market has moved is also
shown, e.g., +1, +2 or -1, -2. Markets do not always go through smooth forward-cycle movements and can regress, or move backward in their cycle position when
occupancy levels reverse their usual direction. This can happen when the marginal rate of change in demand increases (or declines) faster than originally estimated or if
supply growth is stronger (or weaker) than originally estimated.
-7-
HOTEL
Hotel occupancies increased an average of 0.1% in 3Q15, and were up 1.5% year-over-year. Room demand growth moderated slightly
in the third quarter which many consider a seasonal and cyclical trend. The increased use of Airbnb.com is moderating occupancy
growth and putting pressure on hotels to keep room rates competitive. Many new hotels are also now online, creating additional new
and competitive supply. National average hotel room rates declined 0.3% in 3Q15, but were up 2.1% year-over-year.
Kansas City
Orange County
Richmond
Riverside+2
Sacramento+1
Cincinnati
Norfolk
6
2
Austin+1
Pittsburgh+1
12
13
Milwaukee+2
LT Average Occupancy
Columbus
Hartford
Stamford
11
8
7
10
Boston
Chicago+2
Denver+1
Honolulu
Houston
Long Island-1
Miami
Minneapolis+1
Nashville+1
New York
Palm Beach
Portland
San Jose+1
Seattle+1
14
15
Cleveland+1
Indianapolis
Memphis
Oklahoma City
Raleigh-Durham
Salt Lake
St. Louis
16
Note: The 14-largest hotel markets make up 50% of the total square footage of hotel space that we monitor. Thus, the
14-largest hotel markets are in boldface italics to help distinguish how the weighted national average is affected.
Markets that have moved since the previous quarter are shown with a + or - symbol next to the market name and the number of positions the market has moved is also
shown, e.g., +1, +2 or -1, -2. Markets do not always go through smooth forward-cycle movements and can regress, or move backward in their cycle position when
occupancy levels reverse their usual direction. This can happen when the marginal rate of change in demand increases (or declines) faster than originally estimated or if
supply growth is stronger (or weaker) than originally estimated.
-8-
Occupancy
Demand/Supply
Equilibrium
-Demand growth continues
-New construction begins
(Parallel Expectations)
-Space difficult
to find
-Rents rise rapidly
toward new
construction levels
-New demand
confirmed
Excess space absorbed
(Parallel Expectations)
-New demand not
confirmed in
marketplace
(Mixed Expectations)
Time
or negative
demand growth
-Construction
starts slow but
completions
push vacancies
higher
Physical
Market Cycle
Characteristics
This research currently monitors five property types in more than 50 major markets. We gather data from numerous sources to evaluate and forecast
market movements. The market cycle model we developed looks at the interaction of supply and demand to estimate future vacancy and rental rates.
Our individual market models are combined to create a national average model for all U.S. markets. This model examines the current cycle locations
for each property type and can be used for asset allocation and acquisition decisions.
-9-