Faulting from First Principles

Gregory C. Beroza
Stanford University

2012 IRIS Workshop - Boise, Idaho - June 13-15

Earthquakes as slip on planar faults

(Beroza and Spudich, 1988)

Earthquakes as slip on planar faults

(Beroza and Spudich, 1988)

Back-Projection for Off-Sumatra Earthquake:

Complex Geometry, Deep Centroid

Back-Projec+on Indicates 4 Faults Involved

(Ishii et al , 2005; Hutko, 2009)

(Meng et al, 2012)

Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

Sub-Horizontal Faul+ng; Mul+ply-Connected Rupture; Dehydra+on EmbriGlement?

(Kiser et al, 2011)

Depth-Dependent Faulting

Observed systema+cs of low-frequency vs. high-frequency radia+on

Lay et al. (2012)

Depth-Dependent Faulting

Inferred spa+al varia+on

of fric+onal proper+es.

Lay et al. (2012)

Dynamic Effects of Geometry

Geometry has a strong inuence on

dynamics hanging-wall eect
Kozdon and Dunham (2012)

Effect of Plasticity

(Ma, 2012)

Fault Geometry and High-Frequency Ground Motion

Self-similar surfaces, rough at all scales

(0.1-1 km roughness wavelengths
! 1-10 Hz ground motion)

[Candela et al., 2009]

velocity seismogram

slip

fault friction
off-fault plastic strain
[Dunham et al., 2010]

NGA 2008 GMPEs

PGA

PGV

Relates ground mo/on to magnitude and distance

Up to 19 predic/ve/descrip/ve parameters:
site/soil condi/ons, depth to top of rupture, mechanism,
geometry, hanging wall eect
Stress drop assumed to decrease with earthquake size.

Stress Drop Variability

Baltay (2011)

Earthquake Scaling

Allman and Shearer (2009)

Following Hanks, [1979]

PGA Point Source Model

Parsevals Theorem

a(t) dt =

1
2

a ( ) d

Brune [1970] -2 spectrum

a ( ) = o (2f c ) 2 and f c << f max

Brune stress drop

= 106 Ro f c
aRMS

Random vibration theory

[Vanmarcke and Lai, 1977]

2R (2 ) 2
=
2 106 R

f max
fc

2 f
PGA = aRMS 2ln max
f c

2R (2 ) 2
PGA =
2 106 R

2 f max
f max
2ln

f c
f c

2 f (8.47M )1/ 3
2.86R (2 ) 2 5 / 6

1/ 6
PGA =
Mo
f max 2ln max 1/ 3 o
106 R

2

Following Hanks, [1979]

PGA Point Source Model

Parsevals Theorem

a(t) dt =

1
2

a ( ) d

Brune [1970] -2 spectrum

a ( ) = o (2f c ) 2 and f c << f max

Brune stress drop

= 106 Ro f c
aRMS

Random vibration theory

[Vanmarcke and Lai, 1977]

2R (2 ) 2
=
2 106 R

f max
fc

2 f
PGA = aRMS 2ln max
f c

2R (2 ) 2
PGA =
2 106 R

2 f max
f max
2ln

f c
f c
1/ 5

PGA ~ M o

Only nearest ~30 km of fault contributes to PGA

30 km/ 3 km/s = 10 s = 0.1 Hz
1

3
0.1 Hz = f c = use =2.4 MPa Mw 6.7
8.5MO

PGA Model

SaturaLon eect at M 6.7, consistent with NGA

Simple source models match GMPEs well

Ground Motion Simulations Instead of Data

Olsen et al. (2006)

GroundHow
Motion
to Validate
Simulations
Simulations?
Instead of Data

Olsen et al. (2006)

GroundHow
Motion
to Validate
Simulations
Simulations?
Instead of Data

Deploy seismic stations

Wait for earthquake to test predictions

Olsen et al. (2006)

Alternative:
Using
Ambient-Field
Ground
How
Motion
toValidate
Validate
Simulations
Simulations?
Instead of Data

Olsen et al. (2006)

Alternative: Ground Motion Simulation

Validation with Ambient-Field
Weak coherent ambient
seismic eld recorded at
staLons

Extract impulse response

Convert surface impulse response

to buried double-couple response

Model extended-source response

using the representaLon theorem

Ambient Noise Impulse Responses vs. Earthquake

Depth and Mechanism Correc>ons Improve the Fit

The Dark Ages:

Richter Reading
a Seismogram
Gerber variable scale (adjustable ruler)
used to measure >me precisely.

Earthquake Seismogram

Seismographic Network to Detect

and Locate Earthquakes

Measuring arrival >mes at mul>ple

sta>ons to locate earthquakes.

Mul+ple Earthquakes

A`ershocks in New Zealand

STA/LTA Detector - takes raLo of short-term

average and long-term average signal - maximized
at/near the Lme of the rst arrival.

Earle and Shearer (1994)

Earthquake Swarm
STA/LTA algorithms get overwhelmed
when things get really acLve/interesLng.

The Cocktail Party Problem

The Cocktail Party by Alex Katz

The cocktail party problem refers to the quesLon of how

people hear the person they are talking with, while ignoring
simultaneous background conversaLons and noise.

Cholame
Tremor
LFE Template

Shelly (2010)

Detec>on Algorithm is Powerful (few Type II errors)

LFEs embedded in
data at snr of 0.1
34/36 are detected
Template
detec+on allows us
to follow the
conversa+on

Shelly et al. (2007)

Cholame
Tremor

~540,000 LFEs over 8.5 years in this small area.

~216,000 events in NCSN catalog during that +me.

5 years ago, few CA earthquakes were known deeper than 18 km.

Shelly (2009, 2010) Now we have over half a million that are deeper in one locaJon!

Templates: Scale of the Problem

Good luck Charlie!

Templates: Scale of the Problem

40 samples per second
6 seconds per correlaLon
4.8 x 102 oaLng point ops per correlaLon

Good luck Charlie!

Templates: Scale of the Problem

40 samples per second
6 seconds per correlaLon
4.8 x 102 oaLng point ops per correlaLon
10 lags per second
86,400 seconds/day
365 days/year
Good
l
uck
C
harlie!
10 years digital data
N = 10*86,400*365*10 = 3.1 x 1010 correlaLons

Templates: Scale of the Problem

40 samples per second
6 seconds per correlaLon
4.8 x 102 oaLng point ops per correlaLon
10 lags per second
86,400 seconds/day
365 days/year
Good
l
uck
C
harlie!
10 years digital data
N = 10*86,400*365*10 = 3.1 x 1010 correlaLons
60 channel seismic network

Templates: Scale of the Problem

40 samples per second
6 seconds per correlaLon
4.8 x 102 oaLng point ops per correlaLon
10 lags per second
86,400 seconds/day
365 days/year
Good
l
uck
C
harlie!
10 years digital data
N = 10*86,400*365*10 = 3.1 x 1010 correlaLons
60 channel seismic network

~1015 opera>ons per template

What if we dont have a template?

Example of Blind Source Separa>on
(knowledge of source is limited)
Can s>ll use no>on of looking for similar events
across the network.
Compare everything with everything else.

3 Hours of
LFEs during
tremor in the
Nankai Trough

Brown et al. (2009)

Scale of the Problem

40 samples per second
10 second correlaLon window
8 x 102 oaLng point ops per correlaLon
10 lags per second
86,400 seconds/day
365 days/year
10 years digital data
N = 10*86,400*365*10 = 3.1 x 1010 Lme windows
N(N-1)/2 = 5 x 1020 unique correlaLons
5 x 102 channel seismic network

Scale of the Problem

40 samples per second
10 second correlaLon window
8 x 102 oaLng point ops per correlaLon
10 lags per second
86,400 seconds/day
365 days/year
10 years digital data
N = 10*86,400*365*10 = 3.1 x 1010 Lme windows
N(N-1)/2 = 5 x 1020 unique correlaLons
5 x 102 channel seismic network

1026 opera>ons

Scale of the Problem

40 samples per second
10 second correlaLon window
8 x 102 oaLng point ops per correlaLon
10 lags per second
86,400 seconds/day
365 days/year
Good
l
uck
C
harlie!
10 years digital data
N = 10*86,400*365*10 = 3.1 x 1010 Lme windows
N(N-1)/2 = 5 x 1020 unique correlaLons
5 x 102 channel seismic network

1026 opera>ons

Scale/Poten+al of the Problem

Being clever allows us to reduce by eort by orders of
magnitude, but its s>ll computa>onally imposing.
We need to learn how to make lots of measurements
(capacity) to exploit fully the wealth of data that new
sensor technology will soon deliver.
Huge opportuni>es:
earthquakes real->me network seismology
volcanoes geothermal shale gas
other?

Capability compu>ng. Use of

most powerful supercomputers to
solve the largest and most
demanding problems. Main gure
of merit is Lme to soluLon. A
system is ohen dedicated to
running one problem.

Capacity compu>ng. Use of

smaller and less expensive high-
performance systems to run
parallel problems with more
modest computaLonal
requirements. Main gure of merit
is the cost/performance raLo.
(Graham et al., 2005)

Earthquakes and 21st Century

Low/No Carbon Energy Options

Earthquakes and
Enhanced Geothermal

Earthquakes and Nuclear Power Plants

Kashiwazaki Kariwa

Fukushima Daichi

Earthquakes and Hydro-Electric Power

Koyna Dam

1967 M 6.3 Koyna Earthquake

200 fatali+es
Gupta (2002)

Earthquakes and Shale Gas

The disposal of flowback water (not fracking)

implicated in earthquake triggering.
(Zoback, 2012)

Earthquakes and CO2 Sequestration

(Zoback and Gorelick, 2012)

Earthquakes Impact 21st Century Energy Options

Hydro-Electric
Enhanced Geothermal
Nuclear
Shale Gas
Carbon Dioxide SequestraLon

Conclusions
Seismology is cri>cal to the future of civiliza>on.
We have a lot of data, we will soon have a lot
more. We need to think hard about how to use it.
Doing so will allow us to see earthquakes, and
Earth structure, much more clearly. HPC will be an
important part of this.
It is the best of >mes to be a seismologist.

Greens func>ons between sta>ons opera>ng

asynchronously can be recovered.

Red: recording at all Lmes

Blue: on at t1, o at t2
Black: on at t2, o at t1

Poster #12 explores relevance of this for the 1 in 4 ini>a>ve.

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

Correla>on of Coda of Noise Correla>ons (C3)

5 10 s

10 20 s

(Stehly et al., 2008)

Stability of Virtual Coda for Periods 5 10 s

Black: GFs using data in January June, 2007

Blue: GFs using data in July December, 2007

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

Retrieving Greens FuncLons from Asynchronous Data

R1

R2

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

Retrieving Greens FuncLons from Asynchronous Data

R1

R2

Fiducial network that spans t1 and t2

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

Retrieving Greens FuncLons from Asynchronous Data

R3

R3-R1

R1

R2

Fiducial network that spans t1 and t2

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

Retrieving Greens FuncLons from Asynchronous Data

R3

R3-R1

R1

R3-R2

R2

Fiducial network that spans t1 and t2

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

Retrieving Greens FuncLons from Asynchronous Data

R3

R3-R1

R1

R1-R2

R3-R2

R2

Fiducial network that spans t1 and t2

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

52 ducial staLons

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

Comparison of Synchronous and Asynchronous Greens Func+ons

R1: ADO
R2:

Black: 1-yr noise GF Red: coda GF

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)

Comparison of Synchronous and Asynchronous Greens Func+ons

R1: ADO
R2:

Mean correlaLon
coe. 0.77

Mean correlaLon
coe. 0.77
Mean correlaLon
coe. 0.73
Mean correlaLon
coe. 0.71

Black: 1-yr noise GF Red: coda GF

(Ma and Beroza, 2012)