Daily Markets Update

5 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Contagion becoming a reality!
Credit crisis all over again... Despite a E110 bn bailout package designed to insulate Greece from the Debt markets for the next 3 years the Euro
still managed to fall below 1.3000 and European sovereign spreads further widened the most in 13 months. Markets are governed by gyrations
in greed and fear and right now markets are scared from the unknown. The unknown right now is if the negative debt spiral hits the Spanish
and Portuguese debt markets. As Spain and Portugal save from austerity measures they will pay in higher borrowing costs eliminating any
possible benefits from the measures. Europe played a very bad poker hand in dealing with the Greek crisis by delaying the aid package to
Greece let's see if they have learned from their mistakes and quickly and swiftly calm markets by offering aid to Spain and Portugal as well.
Price action in the Euro yesterday had one direction, it traded from 1.3216 - 1.2932.
In the US yesterday we saw the USD gain across the board as European divestments were looking for a place to hide and the safest place to be
at the moment is in liquid USD. The US continues to show signs of growth as pending home sales rose 5.3% with a boost to home sales due to
the end of homebuyer tax credits. Factory orders for March came in at 1.3% and durable goods beat expectations and come in at -0.6%. Despite
the positive fundamentals from the US we saw the equity markets close over 2% negative yesterday as global sovereign debt worries have
sparked some flight to safety. USDJPY price action yesterday was between 94.66 - 95.00.
In the UK focus is on the upcoming General election on Thursday as the likely hood of a hung parliament, as per opinion polls, is increasing.
The problem with a 'hung' parliament is that the UK will face difficulties in implementing harsh austerity measures on a timely manner and
may therefore be downgraded by the ratings agencies. UK's budget deficit as it stands is at an alarming 11% almost on par with Greece. The
only pro of the UK economy compared to Greece is that it has the ability to deflate away its debt or to devalue its currency. Yesterday GBP/USD
prices action were between 1.5263 - 1.5089.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 1.2945
Position Strategy: current position SHORT at 1.3182 stop profit 1.3153 target near 1.2682
The EUR/USD's strong break of 1.3114 confirms that recent decline has resumed. The daily bias remains on the downside and further fall
should be seen to 100% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.2682 next. On the upside, above 1.3153 minor resistance will turn
intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 1.3341 resistance and bring fall resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the three wave consolidation from 2008 low of 1.2329 has completed at
1.5143 already and fall from there is resuming whole down trend from 2008 high of 1.6039. We'd expect fall from 1.5143 to break through
1.2329 low eventually. On the upside, break of 1.3692 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain
bearish and the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions
are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at
1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 support, and possibly further to 100%
projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1424. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039
at 1.1209 to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 1.1064
Position Strategy: Current position, LONG at 1.0925 stop at 1.0887 target 1.1200
The USD/CHF's strong break of 1.0923 resistance confirms that recent rally has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise
should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1200 next. On the downside, below 1.0887 minor support will turn
intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.0748 support and bring rally resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the last week's break of 1.0897 affirm the case that medium term rise from
2009 low of 0.9916 is still in progress. Also, note that the sustained trading above medium term falling trend line, light brown line on the chart,
allows affirm the view that whole correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916. We'll now stay bullish as long as
1.0434 support holds and expect the rise from 0.9916 to extend towards 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. However, break of
1.0434 support will mix up the outlook again. Furthermore, we're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further
evidence from the markets before taking a stance.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 1.4325
Position Strategy:
Current position : SHORT at 1.4309 stop 1.4387 target 1.4143 first for 13969 next
Enter LONG if we break 1.4387 with a stop 1.4310 target 1.4466.
No Change, the EUR/CHF continued to stay inside tight range of 1.4294/4386 last week. Bias remains neutral and more choppy & sideway
trading might still be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4292 will argue that rebound from 1.4143 is completed at 1.4465 already and turn
bias to the downside for this support first. On the upside, a move above 1.4386 will suggest that stronger recovery might be seen and another
high above 1.4466 would be seen before corrective rise from 1.4143 completes. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to
1.4557 support turned resistance to limit upside and bring fall resumption sooner or later.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.4135 (2008 low) confirms that whole long term down
trend from 1.6287 has resumed. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside,
break of 1.4557 spike low resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 1.5137
Position Strategy: Current position: SHORT at 1.5120 stop 1. 5210 target near 1.4783, Have taken profit on SHORT position from 1.5283 at
1.5125
Enter LONG if we break 1.5389 with a stop 1.5285 target near 1.5620
The GDP/USD's strong break of 1.5125 confirms that recent decline has resumed. The Break of this last level affirms our view that three waves
consolidation from 1.4783 is completed at 1.5521 already. The daily bias remains on the downside and further fall to retest 1.4783 low. A
break of this last level will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed for 1.4364/37 (200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from
1.6456 at 1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5381 at 1.4337and 76.4% retracement from 1.3500 to 1.6875 at 1.4337).
On the upside, above 1.5210 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long
as 1.5389 resistance holds.
However, note that break of 1.5389 resistance will delay the bearish view and bring another high above 1.5521. But, even in such case, upside
should be limited by 50% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5620 to conclude the consolidation from 1.4783 and finally bring down trend
resumption.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to
down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161
and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will
remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 0.9090
Position Strategy: Current position, SHORT at 0.9131 stop at 0.9274 or target near 0.9004
Enter LONG on a break of 0.9274 with a stop 0.9134 target 0.9404
AUD/USD's fall from 0.9324 extends further to as low as 0.9066 today and the daily bias remains on the downside. As noted before, we still
favor the case that rises from 0.8577 is completed at 0.9380 already, ahead of 0.9404 high. Further decline would be seen, the break of the
0.9134 support have affirm our bearish view and target 0.9004 support now and below. However, a break above 0.9274 minor resistance will
shift focus back to 0.9404 high instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the loss of momentum ahead of 0.9404 resistance is pressing AUD/USD back
to the lower band of the ascending channel support, green line on the chart, now at 0.9261. By the Break of 0.9134 support we also have this
channel taken out deeply, which in turn suggests that a medium term top is already in place. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to
0.8577 support and below to correct the whole rally from 2008 low of 6.008. On the upside, however, decisive break of 0.9404 resistance will
indicate that medium term rally from 0.6008 is still in progress. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with
equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 94.57
Position Strategy: Current position LONG 94.70 stop at 93.82 target near 97.06
Enter SHORT on a break of 92.81 with stop 93.57 target 91.59
No Change, the USD/JPY's break of 94.68 resistance confirms that whole rally from 88.13 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside
and further rise should now be seen to 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06 next. On the downside, below 93.82 minor
support will indicate that a short term top is formed and will bring deeper fall towards 91.59 support instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole down trend form 124.13 is
completed at 84.81 on bullish convergence condition in daily AO and Stochastic. We'd expect stronger rally towards 101.43/65 medium term
resistance zone for confirming this bullish case. On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is
finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in weekly oscillators; the long term
down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone and decisive break there will also
break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place and another rising leg of the sideway
pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 122.66
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 122.33 with stop 123.66 target near 119.64
Enter LONG at 125.95 stop at 124.55 target 127.91
EUR/JPY's break of 122.35 support confirms that fall from 127.88 has resumed. Also, it reaffirms our view that choppy recovery from 119.64 is
merely a correction in the larger decline and has completed at 127.88 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should
now be seen for a retest of 119.64 first. On the upside, above 123.63 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But
outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 125.95 resistance holds.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 112.10 are treated as correction to long term down trend
from 2008 high of 169.96, no doubt. Question is whether such correction is completed at 139.21 already and another rise would still be seen.
The momentum of the rise from 119.64 is not strong enough to confirm the bullish case yet and we'll stay neutral. On the upside, another rise
above 127.91 will reaffirm the bullish case that rise from 112.10 is resuming for another high above 139.21 before completion. On the
downside, break of 121.05 support, however, will revive that case that EUR/JPY has already topped out in medium term at 139.21 and will
pave the wave for another low below 112.10 instead.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (00 low) was completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should
develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10. Second wave from 118.10 might still be in progress but after all,
we'd expect another long term fall to 118.10 and beyond after the third wave starts.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 143.46
Position Strategy:Current position : Flat

Enter LONG at 145.94 stop at 143.3 target 150.68
Enter SHORT on a break 142.99 stop at 142.72 target 139.03/36
No Change, The daily bias in GBP/JPY is still neutral for the moment. As noted before, the rise from 132.13 should have made a short term top
at 145.94 already. More consolidations should be seen below 145.94 in near term. Below 142.99 minor support will bring another falling leg
for support zone of 139.03/36 (50% retracement of 139.03 to 145.94 at 139.03). On the upside, break of 145.94 is needed to confirm rise
resumption to 150.68. Otherwise, outlook will remain neutral first.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger decline
from 2007 high of 251.09, no doubt. Question is on whether such consolidation/correction from 118.81 is completed at 163.05 already. The
structure of the fall from 163.05 to 132.13 is not supporting that it's resuming the down trend. However, rebound from 132.13 is not strong
enough to take it through the weekly long term trend indicator yet (now at 145.09). We are staying neutral for the moment.
On the upside, break of 150.68 resistance will confirm the case that fall from 163.05 is merely a correction to rebound from 118.81. In other
words, the correction from 118.81 is still in progress for another high above 163.05 before completion. On the downside, break of 132.13 will
suggest that price actions from 139.69 are merely three wave consolidation (153.21, 132.13, 145.94) that's skewed downward. In other words,
fall from 163.95 is developing into steep decline for a new low below 118.81.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 1.0254
Position Strategy: Current position Flat Have taken profit on LONG on position from 1.0196 at 1.0254
Enter LONG on a break of 1.0284 stop 1.0195 target 1.0454
Enter SHORT on a break of 1.0012 with stop 1.0112 target 0.9929
The USD/CAD rises to as high as 1.0284 today and met mentioned target of 38.2% retracement of 1.0779 to 0.9929 at 1.0254. The daily bias
remains on the upside and further rally should now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0454. On the downside, below 1.0198 will turn intraday
bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0100 support and bring another rise. However, break of 1.0012 support
will argue that consolidation from 0.9929 might be completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9929. A Break of this last
level will confirm that such down trend has resumed and will target 61.8% projection of 1.1723 to 1.0205 from 1.0779 at 0.9841.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, In the bigger picture, with 1.0779 resistance intact, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in
favor to continue and would probably target 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444. However, note that the structure of
such fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective. Hence, the most bearish case might be that it's the second leg of consolidation that started at
2007 low of 0.9056. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9444 and 0.9056 to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.0779 will in
turn indicate that fall from 1.3063 has completed and will turn outlook bullish for 1.1723 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading
below the long trend indicators now at 1.0153, green line on the chart, again argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from
1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay
neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 1172.4
Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT

Enter SHORT on a break of 1160.7 stop 1170.7 target 1124.3
While gold is losing upside momentum after hitting 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186, there is no clear sign of topping
yet. Further rise could still be seen as long as 1160.7 minor support holds. However, as noted before, we're retreating rise from 1044.5 as the
second wave of a three wave consolidation from 1227.5, we'd expect strong resistance between 1186 and 1227.5 to conclude the rally from
1044.5 and bring another fall. Below 1160.7 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1124.3 support will indicate that rise
from 1044.5 has finished and will turn outlook bearish for another low below 1044.5.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1044.5 so far suggests that it's
the second leg of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 1227.5. At this moment, there is no confirmation that rise from 1044.5 is
completed yet and another rise might still be seen. However, even in that case, strong resistance should be seen above 100% projection of
1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 to complete the rise and bring the another fall to retest 1044.5 before consolidation from 1227.5
completes. Meanwhile, break of 1084.8 support will indicate that the third falling leg has likely started and will then target a new low below
1044 before completing consolidations from 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 82.72
Current position : SHORT at 85.15 stop 82.69 target between 80.53/81.29

Despite retesting 87.09 high briefly, crude oil failed to sustain gain and reversed. Rise from 80.63 should have completed at 87.15. The daily
bias is flipped back to the downside and further fall should be seen towards 80.53/81.26 support zone to extend the consolidation from 87.09.
Though, rise from 69.50 would remain in favor to continue as long as 80.37/53 support zone holds. On the upside, decisive break of 87.15 will
confirm that rise from 69.50 has resumed for 90 psychological level.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole
correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and
should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to
33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled
out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will
be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 1998 low
of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we still
prefer the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between
76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance zone and bring reversal for another low before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Wednesday, April the 5sd, 2010, level 10891.6
Current position SHORT at 10914 stop 11068.7 target 10750 first for 10660/30 next
Enter LONG on a clear break of 11196.65. stop 11065 target 11290 first
Enter SHORT on a break of 10914.15 stop 11068.7 target 10660/30
The Dow is still on a consolidation and perhaps drawing not a double tops pattern on a 4 hours chart. The daily bias is on the downside. On the
down side, by breaking 10914.15 support the trigger for the continuation of the correction for a minimum target at 10750.5 and full target at
10632.2 a level very near of the 38.2% retracement from 9789.9 to 11205.158 at 10657.9. We are now around the 23.6% retracement from
9789.9 to 11205.158 at 10869 and bring some support now a clear bear of this level will target first 10750.5.On the upside, on a clear break of
11196.65 will suggest that the correction is perhaps over and we are heading perhaps for 11290 level next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I of Cycle
wave I of this bull market. The downtrend from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold
the 10% correction, and we are now Major wave 5.Following our count: we are perhaps still in 3 of 5 of I and with the clear of 11135.9 we may
reach 11211.77. For remember Wave I is the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that
may be very profound.
TRACK Since April

RECORD 16th, 2010
Current Closed P&L
Currency Long/Short Open price Price Stop Target Open P&L pips Pips Total P&L pips
EUR/USD Short 1.3182 1.2945 1.3153 1.3064 237 247 484
CHF/USD Long 1.0925 1.1064 1.0887 1.12 139 -34 105
EUR/CHF Short 1.431 1.4325 1.4387 1.4143 -15 -15
GBP/USD Short 1.512 1.5137 1.5210 1.4783 -17 102 85
AUD/USD Short 0.9131 0.909 0.9274 0.9004 41 -145 -104
USD/JPY Long 94.7 94.57 83.82 97.04 -13 161 148
EUR/JPY Short 122.33 122.66 123.66 119.64 -33 -31 -64
GBP/JPY Flat 0 -97 -97
USD/CAD Flat 0 207 207
TOTAL 339 410 749

Current Open P&L
Markets Long/Short Open price Price Stop points Close P&L pts Total P&L pts
Gold Flat 0.00 3.95 3.95
Oil Short 85.15 82.72 83.4 80.53/81.26 2.43 1.71 4.14
Dow Jones Short 10914 10891.6 11068.7 10750 22.40 533.6 556.00
Economic Calendar
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Mar 0.8% -3.3%
01:30 AUD Building Approvals Y/Y Mar 25.6% 34.2%
07:45 EUR Italian PMI Services Apr 56.0 55.3
07:50 EUR French PMI Services Apr F -- 57.8
07:55 EUR German PMI Services Apr F 55.0 55.0
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Apr F 55.5 55.5
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Composite Apr F 57.3 57.3
08:30 GBP PMI Construction Apr 53.2 53.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.1% -0.6%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Mar -0.5% -1.1%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 30) -- -2.9%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr -- -55.0%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Apr 25K -23K
12:30 USD Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks in Boston -- --

Massachusetts
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Apr 56.0 55.4
14:10 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in Richmond -- --

Virginia
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (APR 30) -- 1963K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (APR 30) -- -1240K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (APR 30) -- 2937K
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q1 0.2% -0.1%
22:45 NZD Employment Change Y/Y Q1 -1.1% -2.4%
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q1 7.3% 7.3%
22:45 NZD Participation Rate Q/Q Q1 68.1% 68.1%
23:00 USD Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks in New York City
Thursday, May 6, 2010
-- GBP UK General Election -- --
01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. M/M Mar 0.7% -1.4%
01:30 AUD Retail Sales Ex InflationQ/Q Q1 0.3% 1.1%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar -2125M -1924M
05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales Y/Y Apr -- 37.2%
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Apr 0.8% 0.1%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Apr 1.3% 1.4%
08:30 GBP PMI Services Apr 57.0 56.5
08:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) Apr -- $80M
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders s.a. M/M Mar 1.4% 0.0%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. Y/Y Mar 21.0% 24.5%
11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar -- -0.5%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 P 2.5% 6.9%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P -0.5% -5.9%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 1) 440K 448K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 24) -- 4645K
13:20 USD Fed's Charles Evans Speaks in Chicago Illinois -- --
13:30 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks in Chicago -- --

Illinois
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Apr -- 57.8
14:30 USD ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y Apr -- 9.0%
14:50 USD Fed's Patrick Parkinson in Chicago Illinois -- --
17:00 USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak in St Louis -- --

Missouri
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index Apr -- 48.7
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Apr -- 2.1%
Friday, May 7, 2010
-- GBP New Car Registrations Y/Y Apr -- 26.6%
01:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement --
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. Apr 4.1% 4.1%
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Apr 4.1% 4.2%
06:45 EUR French Trade Balance (EUR) Mar -- -3.6B
06:45 EUR French Central Government Balance (EUR) Mar -- -21.8B
07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Mar 2.8% 3.1%
08:30 GBP PPI Input n.s.a. M/M Apr 1.0% 3.6%
08:30 GBP PPI Input n.s.a. Y/Y Apr 13.1% 10.1%
08:30 GBP PPI Output n.s.a. M/M Apr 0.5% 0.9%
08:30 GBP PPI Output n.s.a. Y/Y Apr 4.8% 5.0%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core n.s.a. M/M Apr 0.3% 0.7%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core n.s.a. Y/Y Apr 3.5% 3.6%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production s.a. M/M Mar 1.5% 0.0%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. 6.4% 5.8%
Y/Y Mar
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr 20.0K 17.9K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 8.2% 8.2%
12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls Apr 180K 162K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Apr 9.7% 9.7%
12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls Apr 90K 123K
12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Apr 15K 17K
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning M/M Apr 0.1% -0.1%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning Y/Y Apr 1.7% 1.8%
12:30 USD Average Weekly Hours Apr 34.1 34.0
16:30 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks in Wilmington -- --

Delaware
17:15 USD Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan Speaks -- --

in Chicago Illinois
19:00 USD Consumer Credit Mar -$3.0B -$11.5B
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Daily Markets Update

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Daily Markets Update

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5 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

Contagion becoming a reality!

Position Strategy:Current position : Flat

Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT

Current position : SHORT at 85.15 stop 82.69 target between 80.53/81.29

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

TRACK Since April

EUR/USD Short 1.3182 1.2945 1.3153 1.3064 237 247 484

CHF/USD Long 1.0925 1.1064 1.0887 1.12 139 -34 105

EUR/CHF Short 1.431 1.4325 1.4387 1.4143 -15 -15

GBP/USD Short 1.512 1.5137 1.5210 1.4783 -17 102 85

AUD/USD Short 0.9131 0.909 0.9274 0.9004 41 -145 -104

USD/JPY Long 94.7 94.57 83.82 97.04 -13 161 148

EUR/JPY Short 122.33 122.66 123.66 119.64 -33 -31 -64

GBP/JPY Flat 0 -97 -97

USD/CAD Flat 0 207 207

TOTAL 339 410 749

Gold Flat 0.00 3.95 3.95

Oil Short 85.15 82.72 83.4 80.53/81.26 2.43 1.71 4.14

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Mar 0.8% -3.3%

01:30 AUD Building Approvals Y/Y Mar 25.6% 34.2%

07:45 EUR Italian PMI Services Apr 56.0 55.3

07:50 EUR French PMI Services Apr F -- 57.8

07:55 EUR German PMI Services Apr F 55.0 55.0

08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Apr F 55.5 55.5

08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Composite Apr F 57.3 57.3

08:30 GBP PMI Construction Apr 53.2 53.1

09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.1% -0.6%

09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Mar -0.5% -1.1%

11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 30) -- -2.9%

11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr -- -55.0%

12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Apr 25K -23K

12:30 USD Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks in Boston -- --

14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Apr 56.0 55.4

14:10 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in Richmond -- --

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (APR 30) -- -1240K

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (APR 30) -- 2937K

22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q1 0.2% -0.1%

22:45 NZD Employment Change Y/Y Q1 -1.1% -2.4%

22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q1 7.3% 7.3%

22:45 NZD Participation Rate Q/Q Q1 68.1% 68.1%

23:00 USD Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks in New York City

Thursday, May 6, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

-- GBP UK General Election -- --

01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. M/M Mar 0.7% -1.4%

01:30 AUD Retail Sales Ex InflationQ/Q Q1 0.3% 1.1%

01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar -2125M -1924M

05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales Y/Y Apr -- 37.2%

07:15 CHF CPI M/M Apr 0.8% 0.1%

07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Apr 1.3% 1.4%

08:30 GBP PMI Services Apr 57.0 56.5

08:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) Apr -- $80M

11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%

12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar -- -0.5%

12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 P 2.5% 6.9%

12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P -0.5% -5.9%

12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 1) 440K 448K

12:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 24) -- 4645K