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The role of quantitative techniques in decision making

process (/free-management-essays/role-in-quantitativetechniques-decision-making.php)
Abstract:Thesecondhalfofthe20thcenturyhasbeenmarkedbyrapidadvancesofresearchmethodsinrealproblem
solving,withrapidprogressoftheinformationtechnologyandimportantstructuralandinstitutionalchangesthatshapeda
newlandscapeofthecorporateandeconomicenvironmenttowardsglobalizationofmarketsandtrade.Inthatprocess
thecontributionthatquantitativetechniquescanmaketomanagementdecisionmakingissignificant.
Keywords:quantitativetechniques,models,analysis,decision.

Introduction
Inthebusinessworld,andinfact,inpracticallyeveryaspectofdailyliving,quantitativetechniquesareusedtoassistin
decisionmaking.Inordertoworkeffectivelyinamodernbusinessorganisation,whethertheorganisationisaprivate
commercialcompany,agovernmentagency,astateindustryorwhatever,managersmustbeabletousequantitative
techniquesinaconfidentandreliablemanner.Accountantsmakedecisionsbasedontheinformationrelatingtothe
financialstateoforganization.Economistsmakedecisionbasedontheinformationrelatingtotheeconomicframeworkin
whichtheorganizationoperates.Marketingstaffmakedecisionsbasedoncustomerresponsetoproductanddesign.
Personnelmanagersmakedecisionsbasedontheinformationrelatingtothelevelsofemploymentintheorganization,
andsoon.Suchinformationisincreasinglyquantitativeanditisapparentthatmanagersneedaworkingknowledgeof
theproceduresandtechniquesappropriateforanalyzingandevaluatingsuchinformation.Suchanalysisandcertainly
thebusinessevaluationcannotbedelegatedtothespecialiststatisticianormathematician,who,adeptthoughtheymight
beatsophisticatednumericalanalysiswillfrequentlyhavelittleoverallunderstandingofthebusinessrelevanceofsuch
analysis.
Theimportanceofquantitativemethodsformanagers
Thequantitativemethodscontaintwocomponentparts,thequantitativeandmethod,withasymmetricalattentiontothe
quantitativeterm.
Speakingaboutmethod,interestisfocuseduponthesocalledScientificMethod.Scienceisthemasteringofthingsof
therealworld,byknowledgeaboutthetruth.Thetermmethoddrivestodialogueonmethodologyinsciencewhichis
clouded,asthephrasescientificmethodisusedintwodifferentways.Theoneisverygeneral,asaprocessofimproving
understanding.Althoughvague,itisconsideredasapowerfuldefinition,sinceitleavesroomforcriticizingdogmatic
clingingtobeliefsandprejudices,orappreciatingcarefulandsystematicreasoningaboutempiricalevidence.Theotheris
thetraditionalsense,andsupportsthatthereisauniquestandardmethod,whichiscentraltoidentityofthescience.In
effect,scientificprogressrequiresmanymethods,sothereisnotauniquestandardmethod,thoughtaughtasa
straightforwardtestinghypothesesderivedfromtheoriesinordertotestthosetheories.Themoreacceptabledefinitionof
scientificmethodisaprocessbywhichscientists,collectivelyandovertime,endeavourtoconstructanaccurate(thatis
reliable,consistentandnonarbitrary)representationoftherealworld.Thepopularhypotheticdeductivestandard
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methodisexcludingconsiderationoftheprocessofdiscoveryinscience.Rather,researchisdefinedasapenetrating
processoflearningandunderstandingthesubstanceofactualthingsandfacts,byuseofdifferentmethods.The
researchprocessincorporatesformulationofaresearchissueandconstructionofaconceptualframework,byusingall
availableinformationsources.
Thequantitativemethodshaveanumberofattributes,suchas:theyemploymeasurabledatatoreachcomparableand
usefulresults,assumealternativeplansforachievingobjectives,plandata,concerningobservationscollection,
configurationandelaborationbystatisticalandeconometricstochasticmethods,checkdatareliability,choose
appropriatesamplingmethod,usecarefullytheestimatesoftheparametersforforecastingandplanningpurposes,etc.
sincetheyderivefromexpostdataconcerningpast.
Inanincreasinglycomplexbusinessenvironmentmanagershavetograpplewithaproblemsandissueswhichrange
fromtherelativelytrivialtothestrategic.Insuchanenvironmentthequantitativetechniqueshaveanimportantrole.Itis
obviousthatlifeforanymanagerinanyorganizationisbecomingincreasinglydifficultandcomplex.Althoughthereare
manyfactorscontributingtothis,figure1illustratessomeofthemajorpressuresmakingdecisionmakingincreasingly
problematic.Organizationsfindthemselvesoperatinginanincreasinglycomplexenvironment.Changesingovernment
policy,privatization,increasinginvolvementoftheEuropeanUnioncontributetothiscomplexity.Atthesametime,
organizationsfaceincreasingcompetitionfrombothhomeandabroad.
Becauseoftheincreasingcomplexityofthebusinessenvironmentinwhichorganizationshavetofunction,the
informationneedsofamanagerbecomemorecomplexanddemandingalso.Thetimeavailabletoamanagertoasses,
analyseandreacttoaproblemoropportunityismuchreduced.Managersandtheirsupportinginformationsystemsneed
totakefast,andhopefullyappropriate,decisions.Finally,toaddtotheproblems,theconsequencesoftakingwrong
decisionsbecomemoreseriousandcostly.Enteringthewrongmarkets,producingthewrongproductsorproviding
inappropriateserviceswillhavemajorandbigconsequencesfororganizations.
Allofthisimpliesthatanythingwhichcanhelpthemanagerofanorganizationinfacinguptothispressuresand
difficultiesinthedecisionmakingprocessmustbeseriouslyconsidered.Quantitativetechniquesprovideinformation
aboutasituationorproblemandadifferentwaytoexaminingthatsituationthatmaywellhelp.Naturallysuchquantitative
analysiswillproduceinformationthatmustbeassessedandusedinconjunctionwithothersources.Businessproblem
aretackledfromthequantitativeperspective.Thedecisionsthatmustbemadelieatthecentreodtheprocess.These
willbestronglyinfluencedbythechosenorganisatonsstrategywithregardtoitsfuturedirection,prioritiesandactivities.
[4,pg.2]Beforereachingadecisionmanyfactorsandinformationmustbeconsidered.Also,techniqueshavepotentially
importantroletoplayinhelpingadecisionbuttheyarenotsufficientbythemselves.Thisisillustratedinfigure2.A
businesssituationmustbeexaminedfrombothaquantitativeandaqualitativeperspective.Informationandanalysis
fromboththeseperspectivesneedtobebroughttogether,assessedandactedupon.
Wecandefinequantitativetechniqueslikemathematicalandstatisticalmodelswhicharedescribingadiversearrayof
variablesrelationship,andtheyaredesignedtoassistmanagerswithmanagementproblemsolvinganddecisionmaking.
Therearemanyofmathematicalandstatisticaltechniqueswhichcanbeusedtohelpdecisionmakingbymanagersofall
typesofbusinessorganization:largeorsmall,privatesector,publicsector,profitoriented,manufacturing,orservice
sector.Statisticsisdefinedastheprocessofcollectingasample,organizing,analyzingandinterpretingdata.The
numericvalueswhichrepresentthecharacteristicsanalyzedinthisprocessarealsoreferredtoasstatistics.However,in
statisticsweareapplyingnumericalwayofexploration,andmethodofanalysisandsynthesispopulationofnumerical
datadependontheirnatureandextrapolationpurpose.[2,pg.1]Wheninformationrelatedtoaparticulargroupis
desired,anditisimpossibleorimpracticaltoobtainthisinformation,asampleorsubsetofthegroupisobtainedandthe
informationofinterestisdetermined.Collecteddataaretherowmaterialwhichbytreatmentshouldtransformintouseful
quantitativemeasures.[2,pg.19]Thequantitativemodels
Thetransformationofdataintoinformation,alsocalledinformationanalysis,wassupportedbymanagementinformation
systemprocesses.Adequatemodelshelpdevelopquantitativetechniquesinabusinesscontext.Modelsaresimplified
depictionsofrealityandoftentaketheformofanequationorsetofequationsthatdescribesomeeconomicsetting.In
economictheorymodelsaredeterministic.[3,pg.36]Modelscomeinavarietyofformsinbusiness:theyarenotjust
quantitative.Ascalemodelmightbeconstructedofanewofficedevelopment,afinancialmodelmaybedevelopedto
assestheimpactofbudgetchangesonproduct/servicedeliverythemarketingdepartmentmaydevelopamodelin
termsofassessingcustomerresponsetoproductchanges.However,anymodel,nomatterwhatitsformorpurpose,has
onedistinctivefeature:itisanattempttorepresentasituationinasimplifiedform.Whichmodelwillbeadequate

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dependsonpurposeofinvestigationandanalysis.[5,pg.104]Manyoperationalproblemsanddecisionmakinghave
beenbasedonresearchthatdealswithapplicationofmodelorquantitativetechniques.Therearefundamentallyfour
reasonswhyquantitativetechniquesareusedbymanagers:
1. Modelsforcemanagerstobeexplicitaboutobjectives.
2. Modelsforcemanagerstoidentifyandrecordthetypesofdecisions
(decisionvariables)thatinfluenceobjectives.
3. Modelsforcemanagerstoidentifyandrecordpertinentinteractionsandtradeoffbetweendecisionvariables.
4. Modelsforcemanagerstorecordconstraints(limitations)onthevaluesthatvariablesmayassume.
Inquantitativedecisionmakingproblems,differentkindsofformalmathematicalandothertypesofmodelshavebeen
implemented.Allorganizationsinbusinessusemanyquantitativemethodologies,includingnetworkanalysis,forecasting
(regression,pathanalysis,andtimeseries),costbenefitanalysis,optimization(linearprogramming,assignment,and
transportation),sensitivityanalysis,significancetesting,simulation,benchmarking,andtotalqualitymanagement.
Moreover,decisionsupportsystemsandcomputersbasedonthisprogrammedtechniquesareincreasinglybeingused
forenhancingorganizationscapabilities.Recently,therehavebeenrelativelyrapidadvancesintheuseoflargeamounts
ofdataandinthedevelopmentofnewtechniquesfortheiranalysis.
Insomecasesdecisionmakersfacedwithcomplexproblemscannotfind,andperhapsshouldnotseek,thebestpossible
solutions.Qualitativeanalysisisbasedprimarilyonthemanagersjudgmentandexperienceitincludesmanagers
conceptualandinterpersonalabilitytounderstandthatbehavioraltechniqueshelptosolveproblems.Qualitativeanalysis
isconsideredmoreasanartthanascience.Ifthemanagerhashadlittleexperiencewithnoroutineproblems,orifa
problemissufficientlycomplex,thenaquantitativeanalysismightbeaveryimportantconsiderationforthemanagers
finaldecisionmaking.
Quantitativeanalysisconcentratesonthefacts,data,orquantitativeaspectsassociatedwithproblems.Amanagers
educationalandtechnicalknowledgeofquantitativeprocedureshelptoenhancethedecisionmakingprocess.The
managerwhoisknowledgeableinquantitativedecisionmakingproceduresisinamuchbetterpositiontocompareand
evaluatethequalitativeandquantitativesourcesofinformation,orultimately,tocombinealternativestomakethebest
possibledecisions.
Atpresent,seatofthepants,reactivemanagerialstylesarealreadyonthewane,andincreasedemphasisisbeing
placedon"scientific"analysisandplanning.Uptodateexperienceisstillinvaluable,butitmustbeusedwithgreater
discipline.Analysisisnowmorerigorous,andcomputerspermitmorealternativestobeanalyzedingreaterdepth.But,
mostimportant,formalplanningisbeingusedasabasisforaction,notmerelyforproformaexercises.Onahigherand
moreconceptuallevel,quantitativeanalysisisfacilitatingcommunicationwhereitneverexistedbefore.Whenaproblem
hasbeenstatedquantitatively,onecanoftenseethatitisstructurallysimilartootherproblems(perhapsfromcompletely
differentareas)which,onthesurface,appeartobequitedifferent.Andonceacommonstructurehasbeenidentified,
insightsandpredictionscanbetransferredfromonesituationtoanotherthequantitativeapproachcanactuallyfoster
communication.
Thusitisnotnecessaryorevendesirableformodernmanagerstobeskilledpractitionersofquantitativeanalysis.But
theyfrequentlylackeventheabilitytorecognizetherighttoolordatawhentheyseethem,letalonetheabilitytofocuson
thebasicstructureofaproblemratherthanitssituationaluniqueness.Yettheymustbeabletodosoiftheyaretodo
morethangenerateelegantnonsense.Managersmustlearnwhatthevarioustoolsaredesignedtodoandwhatthe
limitsoftheircapabilitiesare.Theymustbeabletounderstandwhatstaffspecialistsareattemptingtoachievebya
particularanalysisandtodiscusstheappropriatenessofalternativeproceduressensibly(whichalsorequiresthe
developmentofadditionalvocabulary).Theymustfullyunderstandthevariablesamodelwillandwillnotconsiderandbe
abletoevaluatewhethertherelationshipsamongthevariablesaresensible.Managerscannotuseananalyticaltool
wiselyunlesstheyfullycomprehendtheunderlyingassumptions,whattheanalysisachieves,whatcompromisesthe
modelmakeswithreality,andhowitsconclusionsaretobeadaptedtochangingcircumstancesandintangible
considerations.Allofthisrequiresamorethoroughknowledgeofoperationsthanofmathematics.
Thedecisionmakingprocess

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Mainturningpointsinthepaceoftheuseofquantitativemethodsarementioned:thescientificmanagementrevolutionof
theearly90sinlastcentury,initiatedbyFredericTaylor,thesocalledKeynesianrevolution,theOperationalResearch
originatedduringtheSecondWorldWar,followedbypostwardevelopmentsofquantitativemethodsfordecision
making,notablythesimplexmethodforsolvinglinearprogrammingproblemsandmanymoremethodological
developments.Ascomplexityrose,attentionmovedtothedynamicinterfaceamongprocessesinachaintooffera
definiteoutput.Ineffect,itis(re)locatedinthethinkingoflogisticsandtheSupplychainmanagement,extendedmore
recentlytothebusinessprocessreengineering.[7,pg.11]Processescontainactivitiesandarerelatedamongeach
otherforspecificends.Theprocessingofrealproblemssolvinginvolvesthefollowingsteps:
1)Identificationofcorporateenvironmentanduncertainconditions
2)ExistenceofIndependentManagementUnits
3)Integratedapproachofactualsituations
4)ImplementationofScientificApproach
Processingisprimarilyamatterofunderstandingthatthenewrealityisexogenouslygiven,irreversibleandoneway
pace.Openmindedcost/benefitanalysisovercomeshesitationandpostponementandproducessynergyeffectsindue
course,whereasthecostofinactionmaybeinsuperablyhigherthantheactionnow.Criticalrolehasthetimingforthe
problemofcompetitivenessinanuncertainenvironment,incorporatingtheprobabilitydistributionsofthevariables
consideredintotheanalysis.Decisionmakingunderuncertaintyconditionsisananalyticframeworkofsearchingfor:
a)Optimalstrategies,asactsfromallpossiblecoursesofaction,choicesundercontrolofthedecisionmaker.
b)Variouspossibleoutcomes,statesofnatureoreventstobeidentified,beyondthecontrolofthedecisionmaker.
c)Determinationofthepayofffunctionbydescribingdifferentcombinationsofactsandeventsandtheresulting
consequences,thepayoffresultingfromtheithstrategyandthejthevent.Apayoffisaconditionalvaluea
conditionalprofit,lossor,maybe,aconditionalcost.Inbuildingupapayoffmatrix,thealternativecoursesofactionand
thepossibleoutcomes(events)mustbeclearlydetermined.
Thetradeoffsamongdecisionsunderuncertainty,withincost/benefitanalysis,usesanumberofbasicprinciples,as
partsofthedecisionmatrix:
theLaplacePrinciple(highestmeanvalueorlowestaveragecost),theMaximinorMinimaxPrinciple(choiceofthe
maximumfromasetofstrategieswithminimumpayoffs,adoptedbypessimisticdecisionmakers.Whilesuchaprinciple
hasthelogicofensuringthatdecisionmakersareinthebestpossiblepositioniftheworsthappens,theprincipledoes
obviouslyignorethepotentiallylargerprofitcontributionsthatcanbemadebyotherdecisions)
theMaximaxorMiniminPrinciple(choiceofthemaximumfromstrategieswiththehighestpayoffs,adoptedbyoptimistic
decisionmakers.Ingeneral,forthisprinciple,decisionmakersdeterminethemaximumpayoffforeachdecisionand
thenchoosethelargestofthese.Thisprinciplehastheadvantageoffocusingonthebestpossibleoutcome.)
theHurwiczPrinciple(choicesomewherebetweentheextremepessimismofthemaximinandtheextremeoptimismof
themaximaxprinciple)
theSavagePrinciple(choiceofactionthatminimizesthemaximumopportunitylossesfromthesocalledregrettable)
theMaximumLikelihoodPrinciple(consideringfirsttheeventthatismostlikelytooccurandchoiceofthecourseof
actionwhichhasthemaximumconditionalpayoff.)
theBayesianDecisionRule(anextensionoftheoptimalstrategychoicebycalculationoftheexpectedpayoffsbyusing
posteriorprobabilities,asadditionalinformationabouteventsisacquired)
theExpectationPrinciple(theoptimalchoicerepresentsthestrategywiththehighestexpectedpayoffs,calculatedby
multiplyingthepayoffvalueswiththeirrespectiveprobabilitiesandaddinguptheseproducts).
Thechoiceindecisionmakingunderriskconditionsdependsonaseriesofobjectiveandsubjectivefactors,tomentiona
few:information,enoughknowledgeoftechnologypossibilities,attitudesagainstrisk,etc.Justfasterandcheaperdata
communicationisnotenoughforgainingcompetitiveadvantage.Decisionsupportsystems,analyticalinformation

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technologyanddecisiontreesarehelpfulindecisionmaking.Themethodsforcreatingandanalysingmodels,
incorporatingmultiplescenariosandmoreexplicittreatmentofuncertainty,involvetwooverlappingdisciplines:stochastic
programmingandarelativelynewfieldofstrategyanalysiscalledscenarioplanning.
Therisksoferrorsinestimatesandpredictivepowerofthescientificmethodsarehigherinphasesofstructuralchanges
toadjustinanirreversiblenewworldaroundus.Scientificmethodsaimatassistingtheadjustmentprocessthatisa
matterofphilosophyandconceptualframeworke.g.themanagementthatservesthefundamentaleconomicaxiom,by
eliminatingthemisconceptionsandcoordinatingeffectivemobilizationoftotalavailableresources.
Testinghypothesesleadstoeitherconfirmationorrejectionofahypothesis.Theories,whichcannotbetested,because,
theyhavenoobservableramifications,donotqualifyasscientifictheories.Ifthepredictionsarefoundtobein
disagreementwithnewexperimentalresults,thetheorymaybediscardedasadescriptiontoreality,butitmaycontinue
tobeapplicablewithinalimitedrangeofmeasurableparameters.

Conclusions
Toaneverincreasingextent,modernmanagementisadoptingandapplyingquantitativetechniquestoaidintheprocess
ofdecisionmaking.Theintelligentuseoftheappropriatetoolscanreduceanotherwisehighlycomplexproblemtooneof
manageabledimensions.Thecollectionofthesetechniqueshasbecomelooselyknownas"decisiontheory,"although
therecertainlyisnosuchthingasanintegratedtheoryofhowtomakedecisions.Nevertheless,onewouldseriously
underestimatetheultimateimpactthesemethodsaregoingtohaveiftheyareviewedasnothingmorethanahandfulof
toolsthataresometimesusedtosolveparticulartypesofproblems.Indeed,thereisagrowingbodyofopinionthat
believesthatthegreatestimpactofthequantitativeapproachwillnotbeintheareaofproblemsolving,butwillratherbe
onproblemformulation.Itwillradicallyalterthewaymanagersthinkabouttheirproblemshowtheysizethemup,gain
newinsights,relatethemtootherproblems,communicatewithotherpeopleaboutthem,andgatherinformationfor
solvingthem.Thusquantitativeanalysiscouldhaveaprofoundeffectonthe"art"ofmanagement.
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