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Outcome variables
We defined mortality as in-hospital death occurring
within 30 days of the surgery. We did not identify deaths
that might have occurred following discharge but within
this 30-day window.
We evaluated postoperative morbidity only in the
multicenter cohort since the single-center cohort did not
identify the date of the morbid event. We defined postoperative morbidity as myocardial infarction, congestive
heart failure, arrhythmia, or infection (bacteremia, pneumonia, or deep wound infection) that occurred within 30
days of surgery. Myocardial infarction was defined by use
of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study criteria,
which are widely used in epidemiologic studies of myocardial infarction.13 We defined congestive heart failure
as a physician diagnosis of congestive heart failure or a
chest radiograph interpreted as new congestive heart failure in combination with treatment with diuretics, digoxin, or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor. We
defined arrhythmia as ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation, new-onset atrial fibrillation, or Mobitz
type II or complete heart block requiring parenteral drug
treatment, pacer, or cardioversion. We defined bacteremia as a positive blood culture for an organism other
than that usually considered a contaminant (e.g., Staphylococcus epidermidis). We defined pneumonia as a new
pulmonary infiltrate on the chest radiograph and new
Data collection
All data were collected from information recorded in the
medical charts by trained abstractors by use of explicit
abstraction instruments. These data included demographic information, past medical histories, preoperative
physical assessment, laboratory results, surgery that was
performed, and postoperative morbid events.
Preoperative Hb was the last value recorded prior to
surgery. The lowest postoperative Hb was the lowest
value recorded through the fourth week following surgery. In the single-hospital database the lowest postoperative Hb was recorded through the time of discharge
which was greater than 30 days for five patients. In patients with an outcome, the postoperative Hb level used
was the last value prior to death or the first morbid event.
In patients without an outcome, the postoperative Hb
used was the lowest postoperative value.
We collected information on many comorbid conditions. This included histories of cancer, diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, angina
pectoris, and congestive heart failure. Angina was defined
as a history of chest pain brought on by exertion or emotion or that was relieved by rest or nitroglycerin or a
history of angina noted in the medical chart. Congestive
heart failure was defined as a history of congestive heart
failure noted in the medical chart or a history of orthopnea, paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea, or pulmonary
edema. We created a combined category of cardiovascular disease that included history of angina, congestive
heart failure, myocardial infarction, or peripheral vascular disease. A modification of the Acute Physiology and
Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, which is
predictive of in-hospital mortality for critically ill patients
was created.14 We excluded the Hb component of this
calculation because the Hb level was the primary variable
of interest. We classified surgical procedure in three
ways: 1) by primary system, for example, neurosurgery; 2)
as aortic, intrathoracic, intraperitoneal, or other which
has been previously shown to be an independent predictor of outcome;15 and 3) emergency operation. We recorded the type of anesthesia used and the clinical center
where the patient underwent surgery.
Statistical analysis
A descriptive analysis calculating the mortality and combined mortality or morbidity outcome by Hb levels (in
gram increments) with 95-percent Cis was performed.
We assessed the relationship between Hb level and outcome by use of the Cochran-Armitage Trend test.16 We
evaluated the linearity of the relationship between Hb
and outcome by testing the significance of a quadratic
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RESULTS
Study population
Of the 2083 consecutive patients from the two study cohorts, 300 (14.4%) patients had postoperative Hb levels
8 g per dL or less. There were 263 patients from the multicenter cohort and 37 from the single-hospital cohort.
The study population was predominantly female (70.3%)
and the mean age was 57 years (SD, 17.7, range, 18-90).
Of the 300 patients, 123 (41%) had preoperative Hb levels
less than 8 g per dL. Table 1 displays the patient characteristics by gram increments of lowest recorded Hb. The
majority of surgeries were aortic, intrathoracic, or intra-
peritoneal (65.3%) and were performed with general anesthesia (85.0%). Emergency operations accounted for
19.0 percent of the total. Table 2 characterizes the surgical procedure and associated mortality.
Female
Age (years)
18-59
60-74
75
History of cancer
Diabetes
History of hypertension
History of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Angina
Congestive heart failure
Cardiovascular disease
Intraperitoneal, intrathoracic, or aortic procedure
Emergency operation
General anesthesia
* Data reported as number (%).
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1.1-2.0
(n = 7)
6 (85.7)
7.1-8.0
(n = 99)
74 (74.7)
4 (57.1)
2 (28.6)
1 (14.3)
0
1 (14.3)
2 (28.6)
0
2 (28.6)
1 (14.3)
2 (28.6)
5 (71.4)
2 (28.6)
7 (100)
13 (54.2)
8 (33.3)
3 (12.5)
2 (8.3)
3 (12.5)
11 (45.8)
2 (8.3)
2 (8.3)
3 (12.5)
5 (20.8)
16 (66.7)
12 (50.0)
19 (79.2)
56 (56.6)
28 (28.3)
15 (15.2)
20 (20.2)
17 (17.2)
40 (40.4)
1 (1.0)
3 (3.0)
10 (10.1)
17 (17.2)
64 (64.6)
8 (8.1)
87 (87.9)
11 (39.3)
13 (46.4)
4 (14.3)
4 (14.3)
10 (35.7)
9 (32.1)
2 (7.1)
2 (7.1)
3 (10.7)
8 (28.6)
18 (64.3)
6 (21.4)
27 (96.4)
17 (53.1)
8 (25.0)
7 (21.9)
6 (18.8)
10 (31.3)
16 (50.0)
1 (3.1)
4 (12.5)
7 (21.9)
12 (37.5)
19 (59.4)
9 (28.1)
25 (78.1)
30 (55.6)
13 (24.1)
11 (20.4)
8 (14.8)
13 (24.1)
22 (40.7)
2 (3.7)
8 (14.8)
7 (13.0)
14 (25.9)
37 (68.5)
12 (22.2)
46 (85.2)
28 (50.0)
20 (35.7)
8 (14.3)
13 (23.2)
11 (19.6)
24 (42.9)
1 (1.8)
4 (7.1)
4 (7.1)
12 (21.4)
37 (66.1)
8 (14.3)
44 (78.6)
Number (%)
3 (1.0%)
35 (11.7%)
116 (8.7%)
52 (17.3%)
6 (2.0%)
6 (2.0%)
33 (11.0%)
5 (1.7%)
4 (1.3%)
40 (13.3%)
Mortality
(number [%])
1 (33.3%)
6 (17.1%)
20 (17.2%)
6 (11.5%)
2 (33.3%)
1 (16.7%)
2 (6.1%)
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
10 (25.0%)
196 (65.3%)
57 (19.0%)
34 (17.4%)
13 (22.8%)
DISCUSSION
We describe the mortality and morbidity in the largest
consecutive series (n = 300) in the published literature of
patients, with postoperative Hb levels 8 g per dL, who
declined blood transfusion for religious reasons. We
demonstrate that mortality rises as Hb falls. The odds of
death increase 2.5 times for each gram decrement in
postoperative Hb level. Interestingly, no deaths occurred
in 99 patients with postoperative Hb levels between 7.1
and 8.0 g per dL. The upper 95-percent CI is compatible
with a rate of death no greater than 3.7 percent. However,
the morbidity rate was significant, 9.4 percent (95% CI,
4.4-17.0%).
The study also found that mortality and morbidity
rose sharply below postoperative Hb level of 5 to 6 g per
dL. These results are consistent with an analysis of case
reports in humans. Furthermore, studies in young volunteers undergoing isovolemic hemodilution to a Hb level
of 5 g per dL suggest that most will tolerate this blood
level, although transient, asymptomatic electrocardiogram changes were found in 5 of 87 subjects.19,20 These
results are consistent with animal data as well.
We were unable to identify in the literature any other
consecutive series of patients who decline blood transfusion. An analysis of case reports involving Jehovahs Witnesses from 1970 through early 1993 found 61 reports of
patients with Hb levels 8 g per dL.10 Death occurred in
79 percent of patients and anemia was the designated
cause in nearly half of the patients. Nearly all of these
deaths occurred in patients with Hb levels 5 g/dL. We
chose not to try to classify the cause of death in this study
population because it may be inaccurate. There are several case reports since 1993 of medical and surgical patients surviving with Hb levels of 2.0 to 5.0 g per dL, often
with use of such extreme measures as hypotensive anesthesia, hypothermia, muscle paralysis, and sedation.21-26
Increased cardiac output, decreased peripheral vascular resistance, and increased release of oxygen by RBCs
are physiologic changes that occur in response to anemia.27-35 There are conflicting data regarding the level of
anemia of which these physiologic changes occur. Some
studies suggest that cardiac output rises when the Hb
level is in the range of 9 to 10 g per dL,36 while other data
suggest that the Hb level must be below 7 or 8 g per dL for
these changes to occur.19,37,38 It is likely that compensation begins at different Hb levels depending on age, comorbidity, volume status, and medications. Results from
this analysis suggest inadequate compensation at very
low blood counts.
Prior studies in animals and humans suggest that the
presence of cardiovascular disease increases the risk associated with anemia. In healthy animals, electrocardiograph changes consistent with ischemia are seen at Hb
below 5 g per dL, while lactate production, depressed
ventricular function, and deaths have been observed at
Hb levels of 3 g per dL or lower.39-41 However, in dogs
with experimentally induced coronary stenosis varying
from 50 to 80 percent, ST segment changes and/or locally
depressed cardiac function occurred at Hb levels in the
range of 7 to 10 g per dL.42 This finding in animals was
confirmed in the previous analysis of these data which
showed an interaction between preoperative Hb level
and cardiovascular disease. We did not replicate the findings of an interaction between cardiovascular disease and
Hb level.12,43-45 While the trend was consistent with prior
analyses, this study had far fewer subjects and therefore
less power to identify an association.
This study has several other limitations. First, it is
possible that we have not adequately controlled for differences between patients with different Hb levels despite adjusting for multiple factors including age, cardioVolume 42, July 2002 TRANSFUSION
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CARSON ET AL.
Postoperative
Hb (g/dL)
1.1-2.0
2.1-3.0
3.1-4.0
4.1-5.0
5.1-6.0
6.1-7.0
7.1-8.0
Total study
population
7
24
28
32
54
56
99
30-day in-hospital
mortality*
7 (100)
13 (54.2)
7 (25.0)
11 (34.4)
5 (9.3)
5 (8.9)
0 (0)
No cardiovascular disease
(n = 230)
30-day in-hospital
Number
mortality, n (%)
5
5 (100)
19
10 (52.6)
20
2 (10.0)
20
4 (20.0)
40
3 (7.5)
44
5 (11.4)
82
0 (0)
Cardiovascular disease
(n = 70)
30-day in-hospital
Number
mortality*
2
2 (100)
5
3 (60.0)
8
5 (62.5)
12
7 (58.3)
14
2 (14.3)
12
0 (0)
17
0 (0)
Postoperative
Hb (g/dL)
1.1-2.0
2.1-3.0
3.1-4.0
4.1-5.0
5.1-6.0
6.1-7.0
7.1-8.0
Total study
population
4
12
19
26
49
50
96
30-day in-hospital
mortality and/or morbidity
4 (100)
11 (91.7)
10 (52.6)
15 (57.7)
14 (28.6)
11 (22.0)
9 (9.4)
No cardiovascular disease
(n = 199)
30-day in-hospital
Number
mortality and/or morbidity
2
2 (100)
9
8 (88.9)
14
6 (42.9)
18
9 (50.0)
34
8 (23.5)
40
9 (22.5)
82
8 (9.8)
Cardiovascular disease
(n = 57)
30-day in-hospital
Number
mortality and/or morbidity
2
2 (100)
3
3 (100)
5
4 (80.0)
8
6 (75.0)
15
6 (40.0)
10
2 (20.0)
14
1 (7.1)
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