Ao

Y
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001

X1
820
810
830
850
900
890
930
960
1120
1050
1200
1400
1550
1670
1820
2060
2090
2200
2560
2800
3200
3100

X2
1100
1150
1140
1160
1100
1250
1200
1220
1230
1400
1350
1370
1320
1300
1280
1250
1230
1200
1150
1100
1050
1400

X3
20
23
26
29
30
27
35
20
40
32
39
40
52
58
60
75
72
80
73
94
88
76

a)
60
62
65
61
64
63
62
69
70
65
70
90
92
85
84
89
93
95
108
88
93
95

b)

X1
820
810
830

X2
1100
1150
1140

20
23
26

850
900
890
930
960
1120
1050
1200
1400
1550
1670
1820
2060
2090
2200
2560
2800
3200
3100
Y

1160
1100
1250
1200
1220
1230
1400
1350
1370
1320
1300
1280
1250
1230
1200
1150
1100
1050
1400
X1

820
810
830
850
900
890
930
960
1120
1050
1200
1400
1550
1670
1820
2060
2090
2200
2560
2800
3200
3100

29
30
27
35
20
40
32
39
40
52
58
60
75
72
80
73
94
88
76
X3

1100
1150
1140
1160
1100
1250
1200
1220
1230
1400
1350
1370
1320
1300
1280
1250
1230
1200
1150
1100
1050
1400

60
62
65
61
64
63
62
69
70
65
70
90
92
85
84
89
93
95
108
88
93
95

c)

Modelo Y vs X2
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.9504552
Coeficiente d 0.90336509
R^2 ajustado 0.89853334
Error tpico
250.678451
Observacione
22
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
1 11748792.6 11748792.6 186.964535 1.3101E-011
Residuos
20 1256793.72 62839.6858
Total
21 13005586.4
Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%
Intercepcin
39.925291 124.819103 0.31986523 0.75238792 -220.442795
Variable X 1 31.1585341 2.27875377 13.6734975 1.3101E-011 26.405137

Modeo Y vs X1,X2,X3
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.95457992
Coeficiente d 0.91122281
R^2 ajustado 0.89642662
Error tpico
253.267464
Observacione
22
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
3
11850987
3950329 61.5849315 1.1579E-009
Residuos
18 1154599.35 64144.4085
Total
21 13005586.4

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

Coeficientes
-293.990707
-0.13770257
25.9442813
9.71303394

Modelo Y vs X1,X2

Error tpico
694.798392
0.58603443
4.823312
7.85205336

Estadstico t
-0.42313096
-0.23497352
5.37893492
1.2370056

Probabilidad
0.67721208
0.81688161
4.1190E-005
0.23198126

Inferior 95%
-1753.70796
-1.36891522
15.8108788
-6.78351801

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.95061867
Coeficiente d 0.90367585
R^2 ajustado 0.89353647
Error tpico
256.776785
Observacione
22

SCE(q)
SCE(p)
CME(p)

1252752.03
1154599.35
64144.4085

Fparcial

1.53018284

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2 11752834.3 5876417.17 89.1253208 2.2156E-010
Residuos
19 1252752.03 65934.3172
Total
21 13005586.4
Coeficientes
Intercepcin -128.253863
Variable X 1 0.13619989
Variable X 2 31.1854893

Error tpico Estadstico t

691.204252 -0.18555132
0.55011192 0.24758579
2.33672739 13.345797

Modelo Y vs X1,X3
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.8766548
Coeficiente d 0.76852364
R^2 ajustado 0.74415771
Error tpico
398.053536
Observacione
22

Probabilidad
0.85476314
0.80711074
4.2179E-011

SCE(q)
SCE(p)
CME(p)

3010485.73
1154599.35
64144.4085

Fparcial

28.9329408

Inferior 95%
-1574.96099
-1.01519758
26.2946627

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2 9995100.63 4997550.32 31.5409089 9.1794E-007
Residuos
19 3010485.73 158446.617
Total
21 13005586.4
Coeficientes
Intercepcin -554.23432
Variable X 1 -1.24892933
Variable X 2 46.8147421

Modelo Y vs. X2,X3

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.95443727
Coeficiente d 0.9109505

Error tpico
1089.34485
0.86192665
5.89700729

Estadstico t
-0.50877766
-1.44899723
7.93872889

Probabilidad Inferior 95%

0.61676531 -2834.2593
0.16364277 -3.05296255
1.8783E-007 34.472164

SCE(q)
SCE(p)
CME(p)

1158140.93
1154599.35
64144.4085

Fparcial

0.05521255 MENOR F PARCIAL

R^2 ajustado 0.90157687

Error tpico
246.89023
Observacione
22

F tabla

4.41387342 X1 sale del modelo.

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2 11847445.4 5923722.72 97.1822416 1.0507E-010
Residuos
19 1158140.93 60954.7858
Total
21 13005586.4
Coeficientes
Intercepcin -427.856369
Variable X 1 26.3438096
Variable X 2 9.01592075

Error tpico
387.704812
4.40002307
7.08694907

Estadstico t
-1.10356218
5.98719806
1.27218647

Probabilidad
0.28356447
9.2267E-006
0.21865714

Inferior 95%
-1239.33187
17.1344555
-5.81723414

Metodo todas las regresiones posibles (Desde MINITAB)

Modelos con 1 variable

Mayor R^2
Modelos con 2 variables
Mayor R^2
Modelo con 3 variables
R^2

Entre todos los modelos (distint

R^2 Aj
Cp Mallows
Mejor Modelo entonces:

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
300.293377 -220.442795 300.293377
35.9119311 26.405137 35.9119311

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
1165.72655 -1753.70796 1165.72655
1.09351008 -1.36891522 1.09351008
36.0776838 15.8108788 36.0776838
26.2095859 -6.78351801 26.2095859

X2
820
810
830
850
900
890
930
960
1120
1050
1200
1400
1550
1670
1820
2060
2090
2200
2560
2800
3200
3100

20
23
26
29
30
27
35
20
40
32
39
40
52
58
60
75
72
80
73
94
88
76

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
1318.45326 -1574.96099 1318.45326
1.28759737 -1.01519758 1.28759737
36.0763159 26.2946627 36.0763159

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
1725.79066 -2834.2593 1725.79066
0.55510389 -3.05296255 0.55510389
59.1573202 34.472164 59.1573202

NOR F PARCIAL

sale del modelo.

crtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
383.619129 -1239.33187 383.619129
35.5531638 17.1344555 35.5531638
23.8490756 -5.81723414 23.8490756

delos con 1 variable

Y vs X2

90.3

delos con 2 variables

Y vs X2,X3

91.1

delo con 3 variables

91.1

re todos los modelos (distinto nmero de variables)

90.2 Y vs X2,X3
2.1 Y vs X2,X3 p
Y vs X2,X3

X1
1100
1150
1140
1160
1100
1250
1200
1220
1230
1400
1350
1370
1320
1300
1280
1250
1230
1200
1150
1100
1050
1400

Modelo Y vs X2,X1
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.95061867
Coeficiente d 0.90367585
R^2 ajustado 0.89353647
Error tpico
256.776785
Observacione
22
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresin
2 11752834.3 5876417.17
Residuos
19 1252752.03 65934.3172
Total
21 13005586.4

b0
b1
b2

Coeficientes
-128.253863
31.1854893
0.13619989

SCE(p)
SCE(q)
CME(p)

1252752.03
1256793.72
65934.3172

Fparcial
Ftabla

0.06129872
4.38074969

Error tpico Estadstico t

691.204252 -0.18555132
2.33672739 13.345797
0.55011192 0.24758579

La variable candidata para entrar en el modelo es X3, por tener un may

F
Valor crtico de F
89.1253208 2.2156E-010

Probabilidad
0.85476314
4.2179E-011
0.80711074

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
-1574.96099 1318.45326 -1574.96099 1318.45326
26.2946627 36.0763159 26.2946627 36.0763159
-1.01519758 1.28759737 -1.01519758 1.28759737

elo es X3, por tener un mayor Fparcial, sin embargo la dcima no es significativa, por lo que no entra ningun

X2
820
810
830
850
900
890
930
960
1120
1050
1200
1400
1550
1670
1820
2060
2090
2200
2560
2800
3200
3100

X3
20
23
26
29
30
27
35
20
40
32
39
40
52
58
60
75
72
80
73
94
88
76

60
62
65
61
64
63
62
69
70
65
70
90
92
85
84
89
93
95
108
88
93
95

, por lo que no entra ninguna de las dos al modelo

Modelo Y vs X2,X3
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.95443727
Coeficiente d 0.9109505
R^2 ajustado 0.90157687
Error tpico
246.89023
Observacione
22
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
2
Residuos
19
Total
21
Coeficientes
Intercepcin -427.856369
Variable X 1 26.3438096
Variable X 2 9.01592075
1158140.93
1256793.72
SCE(p)
60954.7858
SCE(q)
CME(p)
Fparcial
Ftabla

1.61845842
4.38074969

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
11847445.4 5923722.72 97.1822416 1.0507E-010
1158140.93 60954.7858
13005586.4
Error tpico
387.704812
4.40002307
7.08694907

Estadstico t
-1.10356218
5.98719806
1.27218647

Probabilidad
0.28356447
9.2267E-006
0.21865714

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

-1239.33187 383.619129 -1239.33187
17.1344555 35.5531638 17.1344555
-5.81723414 23.8490756 -5.81723414

Superior 95,0%
383.619129
35.5531638
23.8490756

Y
400
401
450
455
463
478
500
501
587
599
93
91
100
140
200
245
380
355
360
390
391

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

X1
200
205
210
220
225
230
240
245
250
270
80
85
105
110
115
120
125
130
140
145
190

X2
120
140
144
152
140
137
145
175
189
191
55
70
74
80
84
79
90
98
95
108
135

a)
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de
Coeficiente d
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observacione
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

dsticas de la regresin
0.93117545
0.86708772
0.85231969
60.3848402
21

LISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
2 428179.889 214089.944 58.7138321 1.2945E-008
18 65633.9207 3646.32893
20 493813.81
Coeficientes
-67.4556675
1.43787605
1.50407844

Error tpico
42.3999244
0.90530265
1.37623857

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

-1.59093839 0.12903271 -156.534603 21.6232681
1.58828216 0.12963278 -0.46409424 3.33984635
1.09289077 0.2888533 -1.38729151 4.39544839

lisis de los residuales

Pronstico para Y Residuos
Residuos estndares
Residuos^2
400.608956 -0.60895622 -0.01063009 0.37082768
437.879905 -36.8799053 -0.64378466 1360.12742
451.085599 -1.08559935 -0.01895049 1.17852595
477.496987 -22.4969874 -0.39271292 506.114443
466.637426 -3.6374264 -0.06349581 13.2308708
469.314571 8.68542865 0.15161497 75.4366709
495.725959 4.27404058 0.0746087 18.2674229
548.037693 -47.0376929 -0.82110148 2212.54456
576.284171 10.7158286 0.18705813 114.828983
608.049849 -9.04984933 -0.15797639 81.899773
130.298731 -37.2987311 -0.65109578 1391.19534
160.049288 -69.0492879 -1.20534127 4767.80417
194.823123 -94.8231228 -1.65525564 8991.42462
211.036974 -71.0369737 -1.2400388 5046.25163
224.242668 -24.2426677 -0.42318594 587.706939
223.911656 21.0883442 0.3681233 444.718261
247.645899 132.354101 2.31040559 17517.6081
266.867907 88.1320933 1.5384554 7767.26586
276.734432 83.2655681 1.45350414 6933.15482
303.476832 86.523168 1.5103696 7486.25861
408.791372 -17.7913723 -0.31057055 316.532928

Residuos^3
-0.22581782
-50161.3703
-1.27940701
-11386.0503
-48.1263188
655.199823
78.0757069
-104072.991
1230.48771
-741.180606
-51889.8208
-329213.483
-852594.96
-358470.445
-14247.5841
9378.37175
2318527.27
684545.4
577293.075
647734.812
-5631.55517

Residuos^4
0.13751317
1849946.59
1.38892342
256151.83
175.055942
5690.69132
333.69874
4895353.41
13185.6954
6707.57281
1935424.47
22731956.6
80845716.6
25464655.5
345399.446
197774.332
306866592
60330419
48068635.8
56044068
100193.095

SUMA

65633.9207 2460983.62

609958381

Residuos Estudentizados
-0.01063009
0
-0.64378466
0
-0.01895049
0
-0.39271292
0
-0.06349581
0
0.15161497
0
0.0746087
0
-0.82110148
0
0.18705813
0
-0.15797639
0
-0.65109578
0
-1.20534127
0
-1.65525564
0
-1.2400388
0
-0.42318594
0
0.3681233
0
2.31040559
1 ATIPICA
1.5384554
0
1.45350414
0
1.5103696
0
-0.31057055
0

Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0%
-156.534603 21.6232681
-0.46409424 3.33984635
-1.38729151 4.39544839

b)
SUMA(e^2)
SUMA(e^3)
SUMA(e^4)

S
K
JB
X^2

65633.9207
2460983.62
609958381

^2
3
4

3281.69604
117189.696
29045637.2

0.62336426
2.69702023
1.44036266
5.99146455
Se Acepta H0, el error se distribuye normal

2.10092204

desv est

Matriz de proyeccin
0.192 0.053 0.048 0.038
0.053 0.061 0.064 0.069
0.048 0.064 0.067 0.073
0.038 0.069 0.073 0.082
0.167 0.065 0.064 0.061
0.221 0.065 0.061 0.054
0.211 0.07 0.068 0.063
-0.01 0.082 0.091 0.11
-0.1 0.088 0.102 0.13
0 0.093 0.104 0.126
0.052 0.006
0 -0.02
-0.04 0.012 0.009 0.004
0.036 0.018 0.012 0.002
0.014 0.021 0.017 0.01
0.009 0.023 0.02 0.014
0.079 0.022 0.016 0.004
0.016 0.028 0.025 0.02
-0.02 0.031 0.031 0.031
0.059 0.032 0.029 0.022
-0.02 0.038 0.039 0.041
0.01 0.057 0.06 0.067

57.286089

0.167
0.065
0.064
0.061
0.159
0.201
0.198
0.034
-0.03
0.051
0.011
-0.06
0.009
0
-0.01
0.048
0.003
-0.02
0.042
-0.02
0.026

0.221
0.065
0.061
0.054
0.201
0.264
0.256
0.006
-0.09
0.025
0.019
-0.09
0.01
-0.01
-0.02
0.064
-0.01
-0.05
0.049
-0.04
0.01

0.211
0.07
0.068
0.063
0.198
0.256
0.251
0.024
-0.06
0.046
0.003
-0.09
0
-0.02
-0.02
0.052
-0.01
-0.05
0.042
-0.04
0.017

-0.01
0.082
0.091
0.11
0.034
0.006
0.024
0.171
0.234
0.196
-0.07
0
-0.03
-0.01
0.002
-0.04
0.01
0.04
0
0.057
0.092

-0.1
0.088
0.102
0.13
-0.03
-0.09
-0.06
0.234
0.357
0.26
-0.1
0.035
-0.04
0
0.01
-0.07
0.016
0.074
-0.02
0.094
0.123

0
0.093
0.104
0.126
0.051
0.025
0.046
0.196
0.26
0.229
-0.1
-0.03
-0.05
-0.03
-0.02
-0.05
-0.01
0.026
-0.01
0.048
0.098

0.052
0.006
0
-0.02
0.011
0.019
0.003
-0.07
-0.1
-0.1
0.177
0.142
0.138
0.125
0.116
0.13
0.105
0.087
0.097
0.067
0.014

-0.04
0.012
0.009
0.004
-0.06
-0.09
-0.09
0
0.035
-0.03
0.142
0.181
0.124
0.128
0.125
0.089
0.112
0.124
0.077
0.108
0.047

0.036
0.018
0.012
0.002
0.009
0.01
0
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
0.138
0.124
0.112
0.105
0.1
0.102
0.091
0.083
0.081
0.068
0.028

0.014
0.021
0.017
0.01
0
-0.01
-0.02
-0.01
0
-0.03
0.125
0.128
0.105
0.103
0.099
0.089
0.09
0.089
0.074
0.077
0.037

0.009
0.023
0.02
0.014
-0.01
-0.02
-0.02
0.002
0.01
-0.02
0.116
0.125
0.1
0.099
0.096
0.083
0.088
0.089
0.071
0.078
0.04

0.079
0.022
0.016
0.004
0.048
0.064
0.052
-0.04
-0.07
-0.05
0.13
0.089
0.102
0.089
0.083
0.105
0.077
0.058
0.081
0.046
0.019

0.016
0.028
0.025
0.02
0.003
-0.01
-0.01
0.01
0.016
-0.01
0.105
0.112
0.091
0.09
0.088
0.077
0.081
0.082
0.067
0.072
0.041

-0.02
0.031
0.031
0.031
-0.02
-0.05
-0.05
0.04
0.074
0.026
0.087
0.124
0.083
0.089
0.089
0.058
0.082
0.095
0.058
0.088
0.056

0.059
0.032
0.029
0.022
0.042
0.049
0.042
0
-0.02
-0.01
0.097
0.077
0.081
0.074
0.071
0.081
0.067
0.058
0.067
0.05
0.032

-0.02
0.038
0.039
0.041
-0.02
-0.04
-0.04
0.057
0.094
0.048
0.067
0.108
0.068
0.077
0.078
0.046
0.072
0.088
0.05
0.084
0.06

0.01
0.057
0.06
0.067
0.026
0.01
0.017
0.092
0.123
0.098
0.014
0.047
0.028
0.037
0.04
0.019
0.041
0.056
0.032
0.06
0.066

mii
0.192
0.061
0.067
0.082
0.159
0.264
0.251
0.171
0.357
0.229
0.177
0.181
0.112
0.103
0.096
0.105
0.081
0.095
0.067
0.084
0.066

0.5 Dcook
0.21052632 3.52189326
0 1.49422E-005
0
0
0 0.0130170127
0
0
0 1.24492E-005
0
0
0 0.0067807167
0
0
0 0.000408281
0
0
0 0.0050336623
0
0
0 0.001121559
0
0
0 0.0757066542
0
0
0 0.0135756433
0
0
0 0.0043268616
0
0
0 0.0496921748
0
0
0 0.1758016715
0
0
0 0.1753581215
0
0
0 0.0884311789
0
0
0 0.0094720348
0
0
0 0.0080332825
0
0
0 0.2298236693
1
0
0 0.1239661124
0
0
0 0.0730122108
0
0
0 0.1024086539
0
0
0 0.0032753016
0
0
No hay obs influyentes