Vol.

: 291
25th April,2016

Index

MarketView
1 Market View:

The result season has started with bang

CompanyUpdate
2
Last Saturday, we have stated that the market is ready to conquer the 200 dma and the 200 dma is

crossed convincingly during last week. The next trigger for the market is the earnings of quarter four. On
Aroundthe
the basis of global recovery and some steps taken by the government coupled with low commodity
Economy

3
prices, the earnings of quarter four seems to be on the track and even better than expectations. Infosys

and TCS have beaten the expectations of the market. Reliance Industries has also fared well and the
KnowledgeCorner 3
GRM is sustained with positive bias. The expectation from the PSU banks is also quite positive

considering the improved NPA scenario. Private sector banking giant HDFC Bank has also achieved
MutualFund
4
remarkable growth and given a reasonably good guidance.

CommodityCorner5 Considering the monsoon situation and Indian consumption story backed by ongoing government
reforms, it is still a buy on dip market with medium to long term view. The Chinese economy is still a

ForexCorner
6 concern for the world market which may pose temporary hurdles to the world market including emerging
economies. Technically any sustained rise above 7950 will take the market beyond 8000 with strong

ReportCard
7 support at 7600.

ShortTermCallStatus8 K a m a l J h a v e r i

MD- Jhaveri Securities

Editor&Contributor
MargiShah

SpecialContributors
AsheshTrivedi
AdityaNahar

Forsuggestions,feedback
andqueries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com

-1-

Vol.: 291
25th April,2016

Company Update : Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

Financial Basics

Company Basics
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)

538268

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)

10.00
10.41

WONDERLA

P/E (x) (TTM)

37.11

P/BV (x) (TTM)

BETA
RONW (%)

5.51
0.6705
20.00

56.50
2182.90

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Non. Promoters
Public & Others
Govt Holding

% Holding
12.38
4.38
70.99
0.00
9.01
3.25

Valuation : WONDERLA is trading at ` 387. We recommend Accumulate with target price of ` 498 , valuing
stock 30xFY18E EPS of `16.62.The stock currently trades at 32.47x of FY16E, 27.93xof FY17E and 22.98x of FY18E.
Company Overview
Wonderla Holidays is one of the largest operators of amusement parks in India, which owns and operates two parks under
the brand name Wonderla, situated at Kochi , Bangalore, Hyderabad. In FY16, it had a cumulative annual footfall of .
Company has also developed the Wonderla Resort in Bangalore, a Three Star leisure resort, next to its amusement park,
comprising of 84 luxury rooms.
Investment rational
Wonderla Hyderabad- next feather in Wonderla s kitty
'Wonderla', the third theme park from Wonderla Holidays in the country and the first in the State, is built in 50 acres of land
with an investment of Rs. 250 crore. It has 43 attractions, which include 25 land based and 18 water based rides. A reverse
looping roller coaster imported from Netherlands, and space themed flying theatre that is yet to be opened, would be the
major attractions. Management plans to launch a fourth park in Chennai at a cost of Rs. 300 Cr. , that would be their biggest
theme based amusement park.
Strong operating experience - a key requirement as Operator
WHL s management has rich operating experience in operating the park, which is the key requirement for success in this
industry. The first park was opened in Kochi in 2000 and the next one in Bangalore in 2005. Thus, promoters have over 14
years of rich and successful experience in park operations. Amusement parks operate for 365 days from 11am-7pm and alcohol-based beverages are not allowed inside.
Strong competitive advantage- High entry barrier
Development of large amusement parks typically require huge investment involving land acquisition, establishing of
infrastructure and rides, and regular investment in creation of new rides. Due to its highly capital intensive nature, achieving the required footfall becomes highly critical, especially in newly developed parks, in order to break-even. ~250 Cr. capex
is required to established an amusement park .Companies existing parks of Wonderla at Bangalore and Kochi are generating
sufficient revenue and have witnessed steady growth in footfalls over the years.
- 2-

Vol.:
291
25th April,2016

Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :

The trade data showed on 20 April 2016 that India's merchandise exports continue to see decline on year on year basis.
Merchandise exports declined 5.47% to $22.71 billion in March 2016 over March 2015.
On global front, the European Central Bank (ECB) on 21 April 2016, left monetary policy unchanged as expected.
HDFC Banks net profit rose 20.21% to Rs 3374.22 crore on 21.14% rise in total income to Rs 18862.61 crore in Q4
March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The result was announced on 22 April 2016.
TCS reported a 50 basis points decline in its operating profit margin at 27.7% in Q4 March 2016 from 28.2% in Q3
December 2015. On consolidated basis, the company's net profit rose 5% to Rs 6413.12 crore on 4% growth in sales to Rs
28448.61 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q3 December 2015.

Market Eye Week ahead :

On political front, the second part of the budget session of Parliament will commence on Monday, 25 April 2016, after a
month long recess and will conclude on 13 May 2016, during which government hopes to receive support of opposition
parties in passage of key legislations including the Goods & Services Tax (GST) Bill.
The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near
month April 2016 series to May 2016 series.
On global front, US Federal Reserve will hold its next two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, 26 April 2016 and Wednesday,
27 April 2016.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Mon: ABB India, Delta Corp, Tata Sponge, Ultratech Cement earnings
2. Tue: Axis Bank, Biocon, IDFC bank, Maruti Suzuki, GNFC, Rallis India, Snowman logistics earnings

3. Wed: Alembic Pharma, CEAT, Bharti Airtel, Gati, Inox Leisure, Yes bank, Sadbhav Engineering, GDL, Exide industries
earnings

4. Tue-Wed : FOMC two day policy meeting

5. Thur: ACC, Ambuja cements, Dabur India, HCC, Idea Cellular, Tata Elexi, Kajaria Ceramics earnings

6. Fri: Ajanta Pharma, Atul, Everest Industries, ICICI Bank, IDFC, GIC Housing Finance earnings

7. Sat: Federal Bank, Gujarat Ambuja exports earnings

Knowledge Corner :
Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)

Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a well-known method of estimating the price of an asset. The theory assumes an asset's return is
dependent on various macroeconomic, market and security-specific factors.

The APT was a revolutionary model as it helps the user decide whether a security is undervalued or overvalued and so an individual
can profit from the information. APT is also very useful for building portfolios because it allows managers to test whether their portfolios are exposed to certain factors.

- 3-

Vol.: 291
25th April,2016

Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Fund Name

Fund (%)

Sector Weights

Scheme Name

Kotak Select Focus Fund Regular Plan

AMC

Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd

Type

Multi Cap

Category

Open-ended and Equity

Launch Date

September 2009

Fund Manager

Harsha Upadhyaya

Net Assets
(` In crore )

Rs. 4219.5 crore as on Mar 31, 2016

History

2013

2014

2015

2016

NAV (Rs)

14.06

22.19

22.85

22.76

Total Return (%)

6.13

57.87

2.96

-0.37

+/- Nifty 50

-0.63

26.48

7.02

0.22

+/- Nifty 200

1.69

22.34

4.86

0.85

Rank (Fund/Category)

34/73

15/145

81/187

51/191

52 Week High (Rs)

14.08

22.57

24.45

52 Week Low (Rs)

11.67

13.41

21.53

Net Assets (Rs.Cr)

314.02

1290.64

3745.12

Expense Ratio (%)

2.73

2.49

2.21

3870.57
-

Financial

23.98

Construction

12.99

Automobile

11.1

Energy

10.75

Technology

8.76

FMCG

6.42

Healthcare

4.66

Services

3.92

Engineering

3.21

Diversified

2.77

Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation

16.36

Sharpe Ratio

0.89

Beta

1.02
0.92

R-Squared
Alpha

9.82

Composition (%)
Equity

92.92

Debt

6.1

Cash

0.98

Fund Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

Fund Style
Investment Style
Growth

Blend

Value

Medium
Small

Fund
CNX Nify
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-

Capitalization

Large

Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

Vol.: 291
25th April,2016

Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week settled with gains where bullion prices ended with little gains as traders were waited for further clues from on
interest rates from the Federal Reserve while Silver prices reached the 11 month top helped by optimism over Chinese growth, and a break above key
chart resistance. Metal traders continued to digest relatively dovish comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi regarding the likelihood of future easing measures from the central bank. It came after the ECB's Governing Council left its benchmark interest rate for the euro zone at a
record-low of zero and its deposit rate unchanged at Minus0.4%. More critically, Draghi noted that the ECB could continue to hold interest rates at comparative low levels beyond the expiration of a comprehensive 80 billion a month Quantitative Easing program in March, 2017. The decision came days
before the start of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day meeting on April 26-27. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at a targeted range between 0.25 and 0.50%. Elsewhere, factory conditions in the U.S. remain soft
as the PMI Manufacturing Index flash reading for April fell 0.6 to 50.8, sharply below expectations of 52.0. The dollar remained higher against the yen
on speculation the Bank of Japan was considering applying negative rates to its lending program for financial institutions, effectively starting to pay
banks to borrow its cash. The US dollar booked further gains, especially against the yen, after rumors emerged on Friday that the Bank of Japan (BoJ)
could add a negative loan rate to its arsenal next week. Nevertheless, April's flash reading represents its lowest level since the start of the recovery of
global financial markets. Gold demand in India improved this week as jewellery retailers reopened stores after a strike, but the world's second biggest
bullion market remained at a discount to the global benchmark as purchases across the region were curbed by higher prices. They started opening
shops from last week. India's gold imports in March slumped 80.5 percent from a year ago to $973 million, the government said.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 28800 SL 28400 TGT 29500. Silver BUY SILVER @ 39500 SL 38700 TGT 40800-41500

BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Base metals prices last week showed good gains where aluminium headed for the biggest weekly advance in three years followed
by over 5% and 4% gains in copper and lead prices respectively while others too gains on signs of improving demand in China, even as Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. predicted lower prices. Prices also remains supported on speculation that raw-materials demand in China will turn around after years
of concern over worsening economic growth. Data showed a pickup in activity ranging from industrial production to fixed-asset investment in March,
adding evidence that monetary and fiscal easing are having an impact in the Asian nation, the largest metals consumer. The Peoples Bank of China
injected the most funds into the financial system via open-market operations in almost two months. Rising metal prices are due to a higher risk appetite
among market players which can also be seen in rising stock markets and higher oil prices. Prices remains supported as Chinese authorities talked up
growth and added stimulus, presiding over a revival in the property market. Chinas copper concentrate imports surged 34% year-on-year to 4 million
tonnes in the first quarter of 2016, according to China Customs data. The global copper market has recorded a surplus of 120,000 tonnes during January to February this year, as mentioned in the latest metals balances report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS). According to the
recently published metals balances report by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the worldwide zinc market has recorded a marginal surplus
during January to February this year. This is after recording a surplus during the whole year 2015. As per WBMS data, the global zinc market recorded
small surplus of 110 kt during the initial two months of the year from January to February. It should be noted that the worldwide zinc market had reported a surplus of 121 kt during the entire year 2015. Global refined zinc production witnessed decline of 2.8% during the initial two-month period of
2016. In news, creditors of an Australian nickel company owned by embattled politician Clive Palmer voted on Friday to wind up the company and
chase millions of dollars owned to creditors and workers. Nickel inventories have been drawing. China looks the strongest in months and global
stainless steel production has stabilized.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY COPPER @ 328 SL 320 TGT 338-345. BUY ZINC @ 125 SL 122 TGT 129-134. BUY NICKEL @ 600 SL 575 TGT 635660. BUY ALIMINIUM @ 107 SL 104 TGT 112-116. BUY LEAD @ 116 SL 112 TGT 120-124

ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week crude oil prices ended with around 8.82 percent gains as prices notched their third straight week of gains as market sentiment turned more upbeat amid signs a persistent global supply glut may be easing. Strong gasoline consumption in the United States, increasing signs
of declining production around the world and oilfield outages have underpinned a return to investment in the sector. Traders also pointed to strong
crude imports to China in March as supporting prices. Still, some warned that the oil market was still far from balancing supply and demand. Falling
output, especially in the United States, where many producers have reeled from an up to 70 percent oil price rout since mid- 2014, has helped to lift the
market. U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a fifth week in a row to the lowest level since November 2009, oil services company Baker Hughes said. Despite the recent rally, oil markets remain oversupplied as between 1 million and 2 million barrels of crude are being pumped out of the ground every day
in excess of demand, leaving storage tanks around the world filled to the brim with unsold fuel. Russia and Saudi Arabia have since said they would
consider producing more oil if they see sufficient demand. Natural gas had their best week of the year gaining by 11.67 percent on signs that summerlike temperatures in the East will help trim a supply glut. Above-normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 states will rise in the South at the start
of May, stoking demand for the power-plant fuel to run air conditioners. Preliminary pipeline data shows that stockpiles may increase by about 55 billion
cubic feet this week, way lower than the year-earlier gain of 84 billion. A gas surplus to the five-year average has narrowed for two straight weeks from
a four-year high on an unexpectedly chilly start to April. Futures extended gains after the governments midday Global Forecast System showed cooler
weather late next week in the Midwest to the East followed by an unusually warm start to May in the South, adding both heating and cooling demand,
according to Commodity Weather Group LLC. Gas inventories totaled 2.484 trillion cubic feet on April 15, 48.5 percent above the five-year average,
according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 2800 SL 2680 TGT 2950-3080. BUY NATURAL GAS @ 138 SL 130 TGT 145-152

- 5-

Vol.: 291
25th April,2016

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

Market Recap :

The Indian rupee plunged lower in early trades on

Monday, 25 April 2016 on sustained demand for the
US currency from importers.

The domestic currency opened at Rs 66.68 against

the dollar and registered an intraday high and low of
66.65 and 66.73 respectively so far during the day.

In the spot market, the Indian unit was last seen

trading at 66.65.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures

the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted
basket of six major currencies, fell 0.22% to 94.90.

Market Eye Week ahead :

USDINR ended below the primary trend line for the second consecutive week. Prices tested the flat support line
pegged at 66.15 and ended with a hammer like candle. Sustainable rise above the resistance line which is
pegged at 66.90 can trigger some pullback in the counter. However, big upside seems to be unlikely from current
levels as weekly MACD and price structure
both are indicating for further downside and pullback if any
should be used to initiate short positions on rise at 66.80 with SL 67.15 and target 65.20.

USD/INR
Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

USD/INR

65.86

66.2

66.49

66.83

67.12

66.79

66.16

66.53

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

EUR/INR

74.38

74.71

75.12

75.45

75.86

75.54

74.8

75.03

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

GBP/INR

93.84

94.79

95.31

96.26

96.78

95.83

94.36

95.74

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

JPY/INR

58.96

59.55

60.7

61.29

62.44

61.85

60.11

60.14

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

-- 46--

Vol.: 291
25th April,2016

J Street Recommendations Report Card

Nifty last week opened at 7908.15, attained a low at 7842.45 and moved up to 7978.45. Nifty finally closed the week at
7899.30 thereby showed a net rise of 48.85 on week to week basis. If a minor correction or retracement of the rise from
7516 to 7978 is witnessed then traders look for retracement levels of the rise for accumulation. Retracement levels are
placed 7800-7747-7695. Accumulate at retracement levels with a stop loss of 7500, In the event of a breakout and close
above 7979 expect the rally to be witnessed towards the next supply zone of 8217-8336 and In the event of a fall and
close below 7500, the slide can be seen towards 7231 and 6768.

Top Fundamental Stocks

Rec. Date

CMP on Rec.

CMP

Target

Absolute
Return @
CMP

Wonderla Holidays

25/04/2016

387

387

498

0%

Accumulate

Mold-Tek Packaging

04/04/2016

138

150

179

8%

Buy

Jamna Auto

22/02/2016

133

140

181

5%

Buy

MT Educare

1/2/2016

164

173

230

5%

Buy

Garware-Wall Ropes

28/12/2015

425

366

550

-14%

Buy

Welspun syntax

23/11/2015

121

106

223

-12%

Buy

Natco Pharma

2/11/2015

509

478

636

-6%

Buy

SRF

21/09/2015

1140

1357

1374

19%

Buy

Ahluwalia contracts

24/08/2015

235

292

368

24%

Buy

Infinite Computer Sol.

20/07/2015

190

216

255

14%

Buy

Ambika Cotton Mills

18/05/2015

880

867

1149

-1%

Buy

4/5/2015

298

283

430

-5%

Buy

Omkar speciality

16/03/2015

152

184

251

21%

Buy

DHFL

16/02/2015

252

200

368

-21%

Accumulate

TV Today Network

27/01/2015

222

316

337

42%

Buy

M&M

12/1/2015

1238

1327

1452

7%

Buy

Havells India

27/10/2014

274

342

346

25%

Buy

PTC India Fin. Ser.

7/7/2014

39

39

45

1%

Buy

Adani Port

5/7/2014

280

232

347

-17%

Accumulate

Stocks

Sadbhav Engineering

Status

It'snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandhow
muchyoulosewhenyou'rewrong.
- 7-

Vol.: 291
25th April,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

2Mar16

3Mar16

MARUTI

4Mar16

TATASTEEL

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

1785

1825 1805.00 1870.00

1750

TA

3.6

SELL

3650

3580 3615.00 3500.00

3690

TA

3.3

SELL

283

290

286.50 276.00

300

SL

4.7

8Mar16

SRTTRANSFIN BUY

905

923

914.00 945.00

885

TA

3.4

9Mar16

BANKBARODA SELL

140

144

142.00 137.00

148

TA

3.6

10Mar16

RELCAPITAL BUY

374

382

378.00 390.00

360

SL

4.2

11Mar16

SELL

411

418

414.50 404.00

430

SL

4.0

14Mar16

HINDUNILVR BUY

845

858

851.50 875.00

825

TA

2.8

15Mar16

TATAMOTOR BUY

362

368

365.00 376.00

348

TA

3.0

10

16Mar16

HDFC

SELL

1106

1128 1117.00 1080.00

1150

SL

3.8

11

17Mar16

ICICIBANK

BUY

223

233

228.00 240.00

210

TA

5.3

12

18Mar16

INDUSINDBK SELL

900

920

910.00 880.00

942

SL

3.5

13

21Mar16

VOLTAS

BUY

265

270

267.50 276.00

256

TA

3.2

14

22Mar16

INDIACEM

BUY

83

86

84.50

88.00

80

TA

4.1

15

23Mar16

BHEL

BUY

115

118

116.50 120.00

112

SL

3.8

16

28Mar16

TATASTEEL

BUY

314

320

317.00 328.00

304

TA

3.5

17

29Mar16

AXISBANK

SELL

421

428

424.50 411.00

440

SL

3.0

18

30Mar16

CIPLA

SELL

500

510

505.00 490.00

520

SL

2.9

19

31Mar16

BAJAJFINANCE BUY

6750

6860 6805.00 7120.00

6600

TA

4.6

20

4Apr16

HEROMO

BUY

2930

2990 2960.00 3140.00

2850

TA

5.8

21

5Apr16

ORIENTAL

SELL

94

97

95.50

90.00

100

TA

6.1

22

6Apr16

SBIN

SELL

182

186

184.00 174.00

191

SL

3.8

23

7Apr16

UNIONBANK SELL

126

129

127.50 120.00

133

SL

3.4

- 7-

TATAELAXSI BUY

RANGE

AXISBANK

Vol.: 291
25th April,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

24

8Apr16

LT

SELL

1176

25

11Apr16

TCS

SELL

26

12Apr16

MOTHERSUMI BUY

27

13Apr16

ASHOKLEY

28

18Apr16

DHFL

29

STATUS

CMP

%
RETURN

1198 1187.00 1132.00

1230

SL

3.6

2415

2463 2439.00 2375.00

2520

SL

3.2

250

255

252.50 260.00

244

TA

6.8

BUY

110

113

111.50 115.00

107

SL

4.0

BUY

200

205

202.50 210.00

194

OPEN

0.0

20Apr16

SRTTRANSFIN BUY

990

1010 1035.00 1055.00

960

OPEN

0.0

30

21Apr16

HINDUNILVR BUY

894

914

904.00 935.00

860

OPEN

0.0

31

22Apr16

251

255

253.00 261.00

243

OPEN

0.0

ICICIBANK

BUY

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB

18

58.06

SL+EXIT

13

41.94

TOTAL

31

100

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

SL

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

- 7-

Vol.: 291
25th April,2016