Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
4/25/2016
SYRIA - Is The US Going To War With Syria Over A Natural Gas Pipeline? ......................................................................................... 322
SYRIA - Why Did Obama Choose Syria? ................................................................................................................................................ 325
SYRIA - Syria "Welcomes" Larger Russia Presence............................................................................................................................... 326
SYRIA - This has the Earmarks of the Kennedy Ear "Cuban Missile" Crisis .......................................................................................... 327
SYRIA - Syrian War You Are Not Being Told About ................................................................................................................................ 329
SYRIA - 25 Quotes ................................................................................................................................................................................... 330
SYRIA - What Coalition? .......................................................................................................................................................................... 333
SYRIA - US Supporting Fully an "Al Qaeda Operation" .......................................................................................................................... 335
SYRIA - Decision Already Taken to Bomb Syria ..................................................................................................................................... 337
SYRIA - Market Patterns Before and Immediately After Conflict Begins ................................................................................................ 345
SOUTH CHINA SEA TERRITORIAL PROBLEMS ......................................................................................................................................... 347
CHINA SEA - Why China Wants Control of The South China Sea In 10 Charts .................................................................................... 348
CHINA SEA - "Strongly Dissatisfied" China Warns US "Accident" Is "Highly Likely" In South China Sea ............................................. 354
CHINA SEA - PLA Officer: China Must Establish South China Sea ADIZ; Will "Fight ............................................................................ 355
IRAN ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 358
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 358
IRAN A Mistake of Historic Proportion! Bibi Netanyanhu ................................................................................................................... 358
IRAN NBC Special Report: Nuclear Agreement Reached With Iran .................................................................................................... 361
YEMEN ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 362
CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 362
YEMEN Strategic Position .................................................................................................................................................................... 362
YEMEN al-Houthis and Saleh Concentrations ..................................................................................................................................... 363
YEMEN The Decisive Storm Coalition ............................................................................................................................................... 363
YEMEN Global Oil Chokepoints ........................................................................................................................................................... 364
YEMEN Middle Eastern Oil Production & Chokepoints ........................................................................................................................ 364
YEMEN Chinese Import Countries & Oil Routes .................................................................................................................................. 366
YEMEN Major Crude Oil Trade Flows in the South China Sea ............................................................................................................ 367
YEMEN Regional Territorial Claims in the South China Sea ............................................................................................................... 368
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 369
YEMEN Risk of World War between NATO and Russia on Ukraine Escalation as Yemen Bombed for Third Day .......................... 369
YEMEN Yemen Ground Invasion by Saudi, Egyptian Troops Imminent .............................................................................................. 371
YEMEN Middle East Proxy War: Presenting The Massive "Decisive Storm" Coalition ....................................................................... 374
YEMEN Saudi Arabia Imposes Naval Blockade on Red Sea Strait, Deploys 150,000 Troops ........................................................... 375
YEMEN Another Middle East War Breaks Out: Saudis Begin Bombing Yemen, US Military Taking Action ....................................... 377
YEMEN Presenting The Theater Of War; Who Controls Yemen? ....................................................................................................... 382
YEMEN US-Armed Rebels Force Yemen President To Flee Country As Saudis Prepare For War ................................................... 384
UKRAINE EAST/WEST CONFLICT The New Colder War ..................................................................................................................... 389
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ..................................................................................................................................................................... 390
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 396
NEW-COLD WAR - "They Should Be Met By Force" - US General Warns Russia Future Fly-Bys "Won't End Well For You" ............. 396
UKRAINE - Putin Is Becoming A "Vulture" Bond Investor ....................................................................................................................... 397
UKRAINE - West Further Infuriates & Antagonizes Russia with Debt Restructuring Pressures ............................................................ 398
UKRAINE - Congress Approves Funding for Ukraine Arms Shipments.................................................................................................. 402
UKRAINE - US Taxpayers to Fund Ukraine Bailout via Bond Guarantee ............................................................................................... 406
UKRAINE - Congress Approves Funding for Ukraine Arms .................................................................................................................... 407
UKRAINE - White House Explains Where Your $1.3 Billion Went In Ukraine ........................................................................... 410
UKRAINE - Putin Says Attempts To Tip Nuclear Balance Don't Scare Russia, Moscow Will Uncover "Schemes" ............................... 413
UKRAINE - Putin Security Council Slams Obama Attempts at "New World Order" ............................................................................... 414
UKRAINE- A Russian Viewpoint .......................................................................................................................................................... 416
UKRAINE- This Is What Is Really Taking Place Behind The Scenes Of The Second US-Russian Cold War....................... 430
HENRY KISSINGER CALLS FOR NEW WORLD ORDER (NWO) ................................................................................................................ 467
KISSINGER- Henry Kissingers World Order ............................................................................................................................................. 467
CENTRAL BANKS - The $100 Trillion Reason Why Central Banks Are Terrified of Debt Deflation .......................................................... 837
CENTRAL BANKS - The year of Dollar Danger for the world ..................................................................................................................... 839
CENTRAL BANKS - Commodities, Inflation Breakevens and Yield Curve Sending Clear Warnings ........................................................ 844
CENTRAL BANKS Economic policies are diverging in the developed world as deflation looms ............................................................ 848
CENTRAL BANKS Central banks can't raise growth potential, says ECB's Weidmann ......................................................................... 850
CENTRAL BANKS Axel Merks 2014 Outlook.......................................................................................................................................... 851
CENTRAL BANKS - Japan May Eclipse China Again, as Largest Holder of US Treasuries ..................................................................... 854
CENTRAL BANKS - Austerity Now Officially Dead Public Policy ............................................................................................................... 855
CENTRAL BANKS - A Serious Shortage of Quality Collateral - A $10T US Problem Over 10 Years ....................................................... 856
CENTRAL BANKS - Global Balance Sheet Expansion ............................................................................................................................... 858
WAR ON CASH ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 863
WAR ON CASH Elliott Waves Report on the War on Cash .................................................................................................................. 863
WAR ON CASH The "War On Cash" Migrates To Switzerland ............................................................................................................... 868
WAR ON CASH Chase Joins the War on Cash ....................................................................................................................................... 871
WAR ON CASH Largest Bank In America Joins War On Cash ............................................................................................................... 873
WAR ON CASH Citigroup's Gold "Expert" Demands A Cash Ban .......................................................................................................... 875
SWISS PEG ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 879
SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure First Central Bank To Lose Control .................................................................................................... 880
SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure The Financial System Broke Last Week ............................................................................................ 882
SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure Keynesian Contral Banking is Destroying Money & Markets ............................................................ 883
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 887
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Insider Says Central Banks Making it Up as They Go! ....................................................................... 887
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS 2007 Redux: Total public and private debt levels are 30pc higher in the advanced economies ........ 888
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Polish Pension Confiscation: Coming to a Theater near You .......................................................... 891
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Global Tax Overhaul ............................................................................................................................ 893
BOE - UK ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 894
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 894
UK Sterling/ US Dollar Exchange Rate after UK Super Thursday ......................................................................................................... 894
UK Dissent within BOE Set to Continue ................................................................................................................................................... 894
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 895
UK - Neutral Report Leaves BOE on Track for February Liftoff .................................................................................................................. 895
UK - Did The Bank Of England Just Admit Financial Markets Aren't "Real"? ............................................................................................. 897
UK - BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls .......................................................................................................... 898
UK - Mark Carney and "Flexible Inflation Targeting" ................................................................................................................................... 899
FED - US ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 901
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 902
NEW-CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Trend Changes versus S&P 500 .................................................................................................... 902
NEW-CHARTS Fed May Potentially Hike Rates When Liquidity Conditions Are Negative ..................................................................... 902
NEW-CHARTS Fed Tightening Periods versus US and World GDP Growth .......................................................................................... 903
NEW-CHARTS Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Trend Changes ........................................................................................................... 903
NEW-CHARTS Long Term Rates Fell in the Last Tightening Cycle ........................................................................................................ 904
NEW-CHARTS Markets have been Pricing in a Fed Rate Liftoff Since 2009 ......................................................................................... 904
NEW-CHARTS Long Term Trend of 10Y UST ......................................................................................................................................... 904
NEW-CHARTS Likely Policy Support Levels by the Federal Reserve for a Falling S&P ........................................................................ 905
CHARTS Inflation Expectations versus Fed QE Easing Operations ....................................................................................................... 906
CHARTS Depth of US Treasury Markets Has Declined from Recent Highs ........................................................................................... 906
CHARTS China Dumping US Treasuries as Chinese Forex Reserves Fall ............................................................................................ 907
CHARTS US Defenses Down ................................................................................................................................................................... 908
CHARTS September Rate Hike Forecast History .................................................................................................................................... 909
CHARTS Only One Thing Can Stop the Fed from a September Rate Hike Emerging Market Weakness .......................................... 909
CHARTS Feds QE History versus UST 10 Year Yields .......................................................................................................................... 910
CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Growth ....................................................................................................................................................... 910
CHARTS June 2015 Fed Rates Hikes Diminish....................................................................................................................................... 910
CHARTS Inflation Expectations 1 Yr, 5010Yr, 5Yr/5Yr ......................................................................................................................... 911
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 912
US MONETARY Why We Have Low Level Equilibria............................................................................................................................ 912
US MONETARY Crashing Inflation Expectations Suggest Imminent Launch Of QE4 ............................................................................. 914
US MONETARY Why Goldman Is Confident the Fed Will Wait To Hike Until December (At Least) ...................................................... 915
US MONETARY Forget Rate Hikes: Bridgewater Says QE4 Is Next; Warns World Is Approaching End of Debt Supercycle .............. 917
US MONETARY What Options Are Saying About A Possible September Rate Hike ............................................................................. 918
US MONETARY The Fed Is Scared To Raise Rates, Ron Paul Warns "Everything Is Too Vulnerable" ................................................ 920
US MONETARY Hilsenrath Warns Fed Is Out Of Ammo, "Policy Makers Resorting To Backup, Backup Plans" .................................. 921
US MONETARY China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless ................................................................. 923
US MONETARY Fed Goes Looking For Evidence of Broken Treasury Market, Decides Everything Is Fine ......................................... 928
US MONETARY The Fed Is Out Of Options, "QE Is All It Can Do Here" Art Cashin Predicts ................................................................ 933
US MONETARY - Humphrey Hawkins Testimony - Yellen Secures More Flexibility for 'Patient' Fed ....................................................... 933
US MONETARY - Audit the Fed Yellens Testimony ................................................................................................................................ 936
US MONETARY - Criticism by Architect of Japanese Quantitative Easing of Fed Policy .......................................................................... 945
US MONETARY - CAPITAL DISTORTION - Global Acceptance of the Bernankean Theory .................................................................... 948
US MONETARY - FINANCIAL REPRESSION - The Suspension of Price Discovery................................................................................ 951
US MONETARY - The Fed is stuck in a QE Trap ....................................................................................................................................... 954
US MONETARY - 2nd Worst Decade In US Growth in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) .................................................................. 956
US MONETARY - Mathematically, The Fed Can Only Fail......................................................................................................................... 958
US MONETARY - QE Standing Between Inflated Equity Markets and A Recession ................................................................................. 964
US MONETARY - QE Programs versus S&P 500 Movements .................................................................................................................. 965
US MONETARY - BAML Warns If The US Economy Does Not Significantly Accelerate Now, It Never Will............................................. 967
CHARTS Euro-Area Money Supply, Private Sector Lending Growth .................................................................................................... 1058
CHARTS Euro-Area 10 Yr Sovereign Bond Yields ................................................................................................................................ 1059
CHARTS Slovenia May BE the Next EU Debt Hotspot .......................................................................................................................... 1059
CHARTS Spain & Portugal NPL ............................................................................................................................................................. 1060
CHARTS ECBs Turn to Expand Its Balance Sheet ............................................................................................................................... 1061
CHARTS ECBs Balance Sheet Contracted Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................................. 1061
CHARTS Expect Major ECB Policy Announcement in Q2 2014 ............................................................................................................ 1062
CHARTS ECB Set to Stay on Hold as Inflation Seen Lower ................................................................................................................. 1063
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1064
EU MONETARY - Draghi Failed: European Inflation Expectations Slide To Pre-QE Level ..................................................................... 1065
EU MONETARY - NIRP Is A Flawed Economic Concept ......................................................................................................................... 1066
EU MONETARY - NIRP ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1068
EU MONETARY NIRP - Yield scarce as the world turns negative ........................................................................................................ 1072
EU MONETARY - Draghi Key Statements ................................................................................................................................................ 1075
EU MONETARY - Draghi throws ECB door open to money printing as global prospects dim ................................................................. 1076
EU MONETARY - Economic Recovery Too Weak for ECB to Avoid New Action .................................................................................... 1078
EU MONETARY - Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points toward QE ......................................................................................................... 1080
EU MONETARY - EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases To Drive Euro Down .......................................................................... 1082
MACRO MONETARY INFLATION ................................................................................................................................................................... 1084
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1084
NEW-CHARTS US 5Y5Y Forward Swap ................................................................................................................................................... 1084
CHARTS The Fall of Hyperinflation & the Rise of Deflation ...................................................................................................................... 1084
CHARTS Falling US Consumer Price Index .............................................................................................................................................. 1085
CHARTS Global Consumer Prices are Rising Significantly ....................................................................................................................... 1086
CHARTS Global Country Inflation Rates ................................................................................................................................................ 1086
CHARTS Two Worlds if Inflation EM and DM ..................................................................................................................................... 1086
CHARTS Developed Country Inflation Rates ......................................................................................................................................... 1088
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1089
INFLATION Martin Armstrongs Explanation of Monetary Inflation ........................................................................................................ 1089
INFLATION - Asset & Property inflation means shops have to pay higher rents with higher product prices ........................................... 1091
EMERGING MARKETS - Asia, BRIC, Emerging Markets Crater IBM Earnings .................................................................................. 1303
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted .............................................................................................................................. 1305
EMERGING MARKETS - Increasing Liquidity Problems In Selected Markets .................................................................................. 1306
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 1312
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 1317
EMERGING MARKETS - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ................................................... 1321
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain ........................................ 1324
CHINAs CREDIT GROWTH Reverses Direction ............................................................................................................................................. 1327
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1327
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1328
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Reserves Have Fallen Steadily Since the Completion of US TAPER ............................................ 1328
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Reserve Total and Monthly Change ................................................................................................ 1328
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Bank Asset Growth Dwarfs Developed Economies Central Banks .......................................................... 1329
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Official GDP Growth Rate Continues to Fall .............................................................................................. 1331
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 1331
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Inflation Rate versus Real Interest Rate .................................................................................................... 1332
CHINA LIQUIDITY Bank Loan Growth ................................................................................................................................................... 1332
CHINA LIQUIDITY Policy Rate, RRR and Loan Growth ........................................................................................................................ 1333
CHINA LIQUIDITY Declining Private Sector Fixed Asset Investment ................................................................................................... 1333
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Third of Chinese GDP Now Goes to Repay Interest and Principle on Existing Loans ............................................ 1334
CHINA LIQUIDITY Infrastructure Investment Offsets Weak Real Estate .............................................................................................. 1335
CHINA LIQUIDITY Shadow Banks Step Back Into Light ....................................................................................................................... 1335
CHINA LIQUIDITY Hopes that Credit Growth Will Spur Property Sales ................................................................................................ 1336
CHINA LIQUIDITY Transport, Construction Data Point to Slower Growth ............................................................................................ 1336
CHINA LIQUIDITY Little Impetus for Turnaround in Investor Sentiment ............................................................................................... 1337
CHINA LIQUIDITY Industrial Output & Exports Continue to Trend the Wrong Way ............................................................................. 1338
CHINA LIQUIDITY GDP Growth Trend .................................................................................................................................................. 1338
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1340
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Injects Massive $60 Billion Liquidity - Most In 3 Years; China Stocks, Yuan Drop ............................ 1340
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY - "China 2016 Is US 2008" Felix Zulauf Warns "The Outcome of A Major Yuan Devaluation Would Be
Disastrous" ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1342
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY - Pressures on the Yuan Held in Check by Reserve Currency Depletion ........................................................ 1346
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Hugh Hendry - Why China's Biggest Bear, Became One Of Its Biggest Bulls ........................................................ 1348
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Three Reasons China May Cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio ............................................................................ 1352
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Reverses Direction and Begins Easing .................................................................................................................... 1354
CHINA LIQUIDITY - One Rate Cut Probably Not Sufficient to Sustain China's Growth ........................................................................... 1355
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Troubling Signs of Deflation in China ....................................................................................................................... 1356
CHINA LIQUIDITY - The Next Phase of Chinas Financial Deepening .................................................................................................... 1358
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Steady decline in private sector activity ................................................................................................................... 1359
CHINA LIQUIDITY - China Credit Risk Overshadows Outlook for Emerging Equities ............................................................................. 1360
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Easy Money Wont Solve Chinas Hard Problems .............................................................................................. 1363
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Housing Bubble Restricting PBOC Actions ........................................................................................................ 1365
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Squeezing Banks towards Reducing Speculative Risk .......................................................................... 1368
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Overnight Repo at 25% .......................................................................................................................................... 1369
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Red Flags ................................................................................................................................................................. 1370
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Credit Fueled Growth ............................................................................................................................................... 1373
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Shadow Banking System Showing Signs of Implosion ..................................................................................... 1378
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Wants to Hold the Line on Explosive Credit Expansion through A Liquidity Squeeze ...................... 1381
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Potentially De-Stabilizing Cash Crunch ............................................................................................................... 1383
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Chinese Liquidity Pump Unplugged .................................................................................................................... 1384
CURRENCY WARS BACK ON Rate Wars Reversed With Un-Taper ............................................................................................................. 1386
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1386
NEW-CURRENCY WARS Falling US$ PEGS of Oil Exporter Nations ................................................................................................. 1386
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1386
NEW-CURRENCY WARS - Square Holes and Currency Pegs ................................................................................................................ 1386
NEW-CURRENCY WARS - Pegs under pressure - Currency pegs are still in fashion, but some are creaking ...................................... 1390
NEW-CURRENCY WARS - Another Petro-State Throws In the Towel: The Last Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin .................................... 1393
NEW-CURRENCY WARS - A Currency War That Few Economists And Analysts Notice, Much Less Understand ............................... 1394
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1398
CURRENCY WARS - A Major Shift............................................................................................................................................................... 1398
BATTLEFIELD - Combatants & Belligerents ................................................................................................................................................. 1403
BATTLEFIIELD - The Race to Debase ......................................................................................................................................................... 1404
JAPAN - The Destabilizing Agent .................................................................................................................................................................. 1406
EUROPE - Euro Exposed .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1406
ARGENTINA - Here we Go Again! ................................................................................................................................................................ 1408
VENEZUELLA - Bad Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1409
BRAZIL - No One Wants to Listen ................................................................................................................................................................. 1409
SWITZERLAND - No Choice ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1409
SINGAPORE - Hot Money ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1410
UK- Pound Joins War .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1411
PRIOR REPORT UPDATES & EDITIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 1412
US$ RESERVE STATUS & ERODING INFLUENCE.......................................................................................................................................... 1412
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED DE=DOLLARIZATION ............................................................................................................................ 1412
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1416
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Countries that have joined the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ............................................... 1416
RESEARCH - Draghi signaled additional monetary easing is likely to materialize - Possibly by September .......................................... 1917
RESEARCH - Germany close to recession as ECB admits recovery is weak.......................................................................................... 1919
RESEARCH - Merkel's Third Chancellorship Challenges .................................................................................................................... 1920
RESEARCH - German Election - Merkel Begins Hunt for Coalition Partners........................................................................................... 1924
RESEARCH - Europe's Shadow Economy: As Big As Germany.............................................................................................................. 1925
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1929
GERMANY - Anti Euro AfD Party May Cost Merkel in Critical September Election ......................................................................... 1930
GERMANY - The Euro Crisis Escalation over Cyprus May Politically Cripple Merkel ..................................................................... 1931
GERMANY - Call for End of "Coercive Euro Association" ........................................................................................................................ 1933
IBERIAN PENINSULA LEFT BLOC ASCENDING AGAINST PORTUGALS SOCIALISTS ........................................................................... 1935
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1935
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains Debt-to-GDP ................................................................................................................................................. 1935
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains & Portugals Unemployment Rate June 2015 Seasonally Adjusted ......................................................... 1935
CHARTS - SPAIN Spanish Industrial Production Output +1.0% MM, +2.9% YY ................................................................................... 1935
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Share of Lower Skilled Workers ....................................................................................................................... 1936
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Non-Performing Loans...................................................................................................................................... 1937
CHARTS - SPAIN 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.5% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1938
CHARTS - SPAIN 10 Year Bond Yield At 2.37% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................. 1938
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Yields Hit Low After BES Bailout ..................................................................................................................... 1939
CHARTS - PORTUGAL - Deficit Problem ................................................................................................................................................. 1940
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1941
NEW-RESEARCH - Did Austerity Really Win Out in Portugal? ........................................................................................................... 1941
RESEARCH - Spain's Economic Recovery Is "One Big Lie" ............................................................................................................... 1941
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................... 1945
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................... 1948
RESEARCH - Presidential Warning Spikes Yields To 8 Months Highs .............................................................................................. 1952
RESEARCH - Clear Signs of Desperation In Spain from a Growing Collateral Contagion .............................................................. 1954
RESEARCH - The Spanish Government's 'Bad Bank' Scam .............................................................................................................. 1955
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1957
IBERIA - Credit Downgrades - At Precipice of "Non Investment Grade" .................................................................................................. 1957
IBERIA - Regional Bailout Bailouts a Massive Problem ...................................................................................................................... 1958
IBERIA - NPL Going Ballistic .................................................................................................................................................................. 1959
IBERIA - Spanish Funding Problem ....................................................................................................................................................... 1960
IBERIA - The Giant Spanish Housing Bubble, Now Beginning to Implode ............................................................................................... 1965
IBERIA - Mal-Investment Coming Home to Roost..................................................................................................................................... 1967
IBERIA - Now a Capital Investment Problem ............................................................................................................................................ 1970
IBERIA - Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support ............................................................................................................................ 1971
CHINA: CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, FALLING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT & NOW US TREASURY SALES ................... 1980
CHINA .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1980
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1980
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Hot Money Flows ............................................................................................................................................. 1980
NEW-CHARTS Capital Outflows and Falling Foreign Direct Investment ............................................................................................... 1981
NEW-CHARTS Exchange Rates & Foreign Exchange Reserves .......................................................................................................... 1981
NEW-CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings v-China FX Reserves ....................................................................................... 1982
NEW-CHARTS Belgiums US Treasury Holdings .................................................................................................................................. 1982
NEW-CHARTS China Containerized Freight Index ............................................................................................................................... 1983
NEW-CHARTS China Fiscal Spending Y-o-Y Increase ......................................................................................................................... 1983
NEW-CHARTS GDP Growth Steady At 6.9% in Q3 2015 ..................................................................................................................... 1984
NEW-CHARTS Debt Fueled But Not Much Growth ............................................................................................................................... 1984
NEW-CHARTS Chinese New Loan Breakdown ..................................................................................................................................... 1985
NEW-CHARTS CAI Suggests China Economic Activity Below Reported GDP .................................................................................... 1985
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Bank NPLs Are Gradually Rising Every Quarter ............................................................................................ 1986
NEW-CHARTS A Tale of Two Economies ............................................................................................................................................. 1986
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Investment Share of GDP Higher than Ever in Japan or Korea ...................................................................... 1988
NEW-CHARTS China Treasury Holding Have Peaked But US Commercial Banks Taking Uo the Slack ............................................ 1989
NEW-CHARTS China 2014 Labor Force Declines First Time in at Least Two Decades ...................................................................... 1989
NEW-CHARTS Ponzi Finance: Chinese Firms Are Issuing More Debt Just to Pay Interest ................................................................. 1990
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Global Trade Index 2001 ............................................................................................................................. 1990
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Imports Exports ........................................................................................................................................... 1992
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Economic Weakness Wider Deeper In September ...................................................................................... 1993
CHARTS Sinking Li Keqiamg Index Contrasts With Stable GDP .......................................................................................................... 1994
CHARTS China is the Undisputed Engine of Global Growth ................................................................................................................. 1995
CHARTS China Has Been Consuming Mind-Boggling Amounts of Raw Materials ............................................................................... 1995
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment & Consumption in China Y-o-Y Growth ........................................................................................ 1996
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment Rises Least Since 2000 ................................................................................................................... 1997
CHARTS Economic Indicators Point to Lower Growth than the Headline Figures ................................................................................ 1997
CHARTS Gains of Real Estate Development Investment 1/10th of 2010 Pace ..................................................................................... 1998
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................................... 1998
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China for Chinas Domestic Use as a % of GDP ..................................................................................... 1999
CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings vs China FX Reserves ................................................................................................. 2000
CHARTS Breakdown of Chinese Imports ............................................................................................................................................... 2001
CHARTS Chinese Imports Slow to 5 Year Low...................................................................................................................................... 2002
CHARTS Chinas Increasing Substitution of Imports for Made in China Products .............................................................................. 2002
CHARTS Developing Economies Exposure to Chinese Domestic Demand ......................................................................................... 2003
CHARTS Chinas GDP Monthly Tracker and Target .............................................................................................................................. 2004
CHARTS China Matters Less for US Consumers than for Stock Investors ........................................................................................... 2004
CHARTS Monthly Change in Foreign Reserves .................................................................................................................................... 2005
CHARTS Monthly FX Purchases ............................................................................................................................................................ 2006
CHARTS Chinas Estimated Productivity Growth Based on IP & Employment Shifts ........................................................................... 2006
CHARTS Shanghai Composite Index Profits% Y-o-Y ......................................................................................................................... 2007
CHARTS Corporate & Household Debt as % GDP ................................................................................................................................ 2007
CHARTS Weak Yuan Supported Much of 21-Year Export Rise to U.S. ................................................................................................ 2008
CHARTS Outstanding Balance of Margin Finance Shanghai Composite ........................................................................................... 2009
CHARTS Currency Rout Goes Global as Risk Seen of 50% Loss ........................................................................................................ 2009
CHARTS Yuan Trading Band ................................................................................................................................................................. 2010
CHARTS Historical Yuan FX Pattern...................................................................................................................................................... 2011
CHARTS China Plans to Spend Billions on Infrastructure in Pakistan .................................................................................................. 2012
CHARTS Chinas Proposed Silk Road Routes....................................................................................................................................... 2013
CHARTS China Activity Proxy & Official GDP........................................................................................................................................ 2014
CHARTS China Relaxes Commercial Bank Reserves ........................................................................................................................... 2015
CHARTS Chinese Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................................................ 2015
CHARTS Chinese Hot Money Flows ...................................................................................................................................................... 2016
CHARTS Falling Chinese Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 2016
CHARTS Commodity Prices % Change Since July 2014 ...................................................................................................................... 2017
CHARTS Chinese Steel Demand, Iron Ore ............................................................................................................................................ 2017
CHARTS Chinese Rail Freight ............................................................................................................................................................... 2018
CHARTS Chinese Bank Assets versus US Bank Assets ....................................................................................................................... 2019
CHARTS Chinese Leverage and Underlying Nominal GDP .................................................................................................................. 2019
CHARTS Measures of Real & Nominal GDP Growth in China .............................................................................................................. 2020
CHARTS Chinese Total Debt & Breakdown........................................................................................................................................... 2020
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts .......................................................................................................................... 2021
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts-2 ....................................................................................................................... 2022
CHARTS Plummeting Chinese Consumer Confidence .......................................................................................................................... 2022
CHARTS Chinese PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2023
CHARTS Chinese Exports versus Taiwan-Korea-Japan ....................................................................................................................... 2024
CHARTS - Falling Chinese Industrial Profits ............................................................................................................................................. 2025
CHARTS - Something Up (or rather down) with Chinese Currency? ....................................................................................................... 2025
CHARTS - Rising Margin Debt/Market Cap Ratio Suggests Liquidity m& Credit Risks ........................................................................... 2026
CHARTS - Corporate Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................. 2026
CHARTS - New Retail Stock Trading Accounts ........................................................................................................................................ 2027
CHARTS - Credit Growth 30% Above Trend for Private Sector Debt to GDP .......................................................................................... 2027
CHARTS - Falling Foreign Currency Reserves ......................................................................................................................................... 2028
CHARTS - 2 Year Yield Goes Negative .................................................................................................................................................... 2029
CHARTS - China Used More Cement in Last 3 Years than US in Entire 20th Century ............................................................................ 2029
CHARTS - China Real Activity Indicators Steel, Cement & Electricity ................................................................................................... 2030
CHARTS - Chinese Coal Consumption Falls ............................................................................................................................................ 2031
CHARTS - Chinese Y-o-Y Outstanding Credit & M2 ................................................................................................................................. 2031
CHARTS - Chinas Bank Reserve Requirement Ratio .............................................................................................................................. 2031
CHARTS - New Stock Market Trading Accounts ...................................................................................................................................... 2032
CHARTS Yuan Falls as Economy Weakens .......................................................................................................................................... 2033
CHARTS Yuans Currency Basket Composition .................................................................................................................................... 2033
CHARTS Yuan Diverges From Currency Basket ................................................................................................................................... 2034
CHARTS Industrial Output A Concern.................................................................................................................................................... 2034
CHARTS China On A Path Since 2008 That Historically Leads to A Currency Crisis........................................................................... 2035
CHARTS Borrowing Costs for Firms Remain High ................................................................................................................................ 2036
CHARTS Chinas Q1 GDP Deflator Falls to Zero .................................................................................................................................. 2037
CHARTS - Credit is Running Well Ahead of Economic Growth ................................................................................................................ 2038
CHARTS Productivity is Slumping As Debt Levels Soar........................................................................................................................ 2038
CHARTS Chinas Gross Fixed Capital Formation Problem ................................................................................................................... 2038
CHARTS Chinese Investment Peaking .................................................................................................................................................. 2039
CHARTS China Equity Flows ................................................................................................................................................................. 2040
CHARTS Credit Accumulation Rate Growth Comparisons ................................................................................................................. 2040
CHARTS Chinese Credit Growth ............................................................................................................................................................ 2041
CHARTS 5 Year Debt Growth versus GDP ............................................................................................................................................ 2041
CHARTS 5 Year Credit Growth .............................................................................................................................................................. 2042
CHARTS Growth Propensity of Credit Growth..................................................................................................................................... 2043
CHARTS Chinas Bad Loans - NPL........................................................................................................................................................ 2044
CHARTS Slowing Steel Consumption .................................................................................................................................................... 2045
CHARTS Shadow Banking System ........................................................................................................................................................ 2045
CHARTS Dramatic Chinese Housing Slowdown ................................................................................................................................... 2047
CHARTS - CHINA - A Global Slowdown on the Verge of Contraction...................................................................................................... 2048
CHARTS - CHINA - Chinese Credit Market .............................................................................................................................................. 2049
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2050
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI-2 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2051
CHARTS - CHINA - GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2052
CHARTS - CHINA Industrial Output ....................................................................................................................................................... 2053
CHARTS - CHINA - Urban Fixed Asset Investment .................................................................................................................................. 2054
CHARTS - CHINA Retail Sales .............................................................................................................................................................. 2055
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2056
NEW-CHINA "China Is A Monumental Doomsday Machine" Stockman Warns .................................................................................... 2056
NEW-CHINA China Faces Capital Flight Punishment ........................................................................................................................... 2059
NEW-CHINA China's Credit Conundrum................................................................................................................................................ 2063
CHINA China's Economy Continues To Crumble As Key Data Is Worst In 15 Years ........................................................................... 2065
CHINA China Outflows Said To Surpass A Staggering $300 Billion in Under Three Months ............................................................... 2068
CHINA China FX Reserve Drop Is Collateral Damage from Yuan Fall .................................................................................................. 2071
CHINA This Isn't 1994: China and That First U.S. Rate Hike ................................................................................................................ 2073
CHINA Expect Regional Ripples, Not Global Waves, From China Selloff ............................................................................................. 2075
CHINA China Risks Downward Spiral of Falling Markets, Growth......................................................................................................... 2076
CHINA China to the Rescue ................................................................................................................................................................... 2078
CHINA Yuan Devaluation Helps Attain U.S. Monetary Tightening Without Fed Rate Hikes ................................................................. 2079
CHINA Devaluation Promises to Boost Exports, But Adds Stability Risk .............................................................................................. 2081
CHINA Risk of a Vicious Circle on Market, Profit Declines .................................................................................................................... 2083
JAPAN Paul Krugman Is "Really, Really Worried" That He Might Have Screwed Up Japan ........................................................ 2130
JAPAN S&P Downgrades Japan from AA- To A+ On Doubts Abenomics Will Work - Full Text .................................................. 2133
JAPAN Elderly Japanese Population Hits New Record - Demographic Death-Rattle Continues ................................................ 2135
JAPAN Bank Of Japan Buying Power Runs Dry: "If They Don't Increase Now, It's Going To Be A Shock!" ............................. 2139
JAPAN Abe Ratings Crash to Record Lows, Japan Lowers Minimum Voting Age ....................................................................... 2141
JAPAN Japan Now Spends 43% Of Tax Revenue To Fund Interest On Debt ................................................................................. 2144
JAPAN Japan Still the Worlds Top Credit? ....................................................................................................................................... 2145
JAPAN Bank of Japan Relaxing All-Out Approach to Hitting Inflation Target ........................................................................................ 2146
JAPAN Japanese trading firms to cut investments, sell assets ...................................................................................................... 2147
JAPAN The BOJ Ups The Ante ............................................................................................................................................................ 2149
JAPAN Is Japan Kaput? ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2150
JAPAN - Pace of 60 to 70 trillion yen a year May Become "Open Ended" ............................................................................................... 2153
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 2155
JAPAN - 3 Arrows of ABE-nomics Not Working ........................................................................................................................................ 2158
JAPAN - Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................................. 2160
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 2161
JAPAN - Japan bond market liquidity dries up as BoJ holding crosses 200tn........................................................................................ 2163
JAPAN - Abe Approval Rating Plunges ................................................................................................................................................. 2165
JAPAN - What the Japanese been Buying ............................................................................................................................................. 2166
JAPAN - Japan May Matter More Than Tapering .................................................................................................................................. 2168
JAPAN - Japan Finances Worse than at Wars End ............................................................................................................................. 2171
JAPAN - BOJ: "The days of constructive ambiguity is over! ......................................................................................................... 2172
JAPAN - Abenomics Third Arrow Growth Strategy Underwhelms .......................................................................................................... 2173
JAPAN - 2nd ABE-nomics $200B Stimulus Package Approved ......................................................................................................... 2175
JAPAN - Worlds Biggest Pension Fund Sees Japan Fail on ABE-nomics' 2% Inflation Goal ....................................................... 2176
JAPAN - The Abe-nomics Failure ........................................................................................................................................................... 2179
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT & KEY NOTES .......................................................................................................................................... 2181
JAPAN - What You Need to Know............................................................................................................................................................. 2183
JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ..................................................................................................................... 2186
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% of GDP in 5 Years .................................................................................................................................. 2186
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history ........................................................................................ 2190
JAPAN - How Japan's National Debt Grew ............................................................................................................................................... 2191
JAPAN - ABE-nomics About Lowering Real Interest Rates ................................................................................................................ 2192
JAPAN - Japanese Bonds Have Lost Their Ability to Price Risk ........................................................................................................ 2193
JAPAN - Japanese Structural Problems a "Canary" for Western Developed Economies ................................................................ 2197
JAPAN - Shinzo Abe Hasn't the Stomach for the Heavy Lifting Needed to Accompany ABE-nomics........................................... 2199
JAPAN - A Credit Squeeze Leads Deflationary Leg Down .................................................................................................................. 2202
JAPAN - Some Japanese Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ............................................................................................................. 2203
JAPAN - The ABE (Asset Bubble Evaluator) Index ............................................................................................................................... 2205
JAPAN - Regional Risk-Reward ................................................................................................................................................................ 2206
JAPAN - Now the Frontrunner of Outright Monetization. .................................................................................................................... 2207
JAPAN - Yen Devaluation ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2208
JAPAN - New Bank of Japan Policy - 2% Inflation in 2 Years ............................................................................................................. 2209
JAPAN - Appoints BOJ Governor Firmly Committed to Printing Money ........................................................................................... 2211
MONETARY POLICY GLOBAL SLOW DOWN FORCES FED TO HOLD ON RATE INCREASE ......................................................... 2589
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2589
NEW-CHARTS: US Monetary Base Growth versus S&P 500 ...................................................................................................................... 2590
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- US Dollar Index ................................................................................................................................................ 2590
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................................................... 2591
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 PE Ratio ............................................................................................................................................ 2591
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................................................ 2592
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- HYG .................................................................................................................................................................. 2593
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD .................................................................................................................................................................. 2594
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD .................................................................................................................................................................. 2594
NEW-CHARTS: Feds US PCE Y-o-Y ........................................................................................................................................................... 2595
NEW-CHARTS: US Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................................... 2595
NEW-CHARTS: US Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................................... 2596
NEW-CHARTS: US Durable Goods New Orders ......................................................................................................................................... 2596
CHARTS: US Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption .......................................................................... 2597
CHARTS: Velocity of Money Shows Transmission System Broken ............................................................................................................. 2597
CHARTS: Interest Rates Reflect Economic Growth & Inflation .................................................................................................................... 2598
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Change versus S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 2598
CHARTS: Fed Policy Initiatives versus S&P 500 Actions ............................................................................................................................. 2599
CHARTS: Total US Credit Old versus New Series .................................................................................................................................... 2599
CHARTS: Banks Treasuries Stash Boosts Case for Fed Delay .................................................................................................................. 2600
CHARTS: US Treasuries Purchased by Domestic Mutual Funds ................................................................................................................ 2600
CHARTS: Total Debt and Loans versus US GDP ......................................................................................................................................... 2601
CHARTS: Credit Markets Instruments All Sectors- Liability Levels ........................................................................................................... 2601
CORE CHARTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2602
QUANTITATIVE EASING .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2602
NEW-CORE: QE Stages versus US Treasury Market .............................................................................................................................. 2602
NEW-CORE: QE Stages versus US Equity Market................................................................................................................................... 2602
NEW-CORE: QE Correlation with US Equity Market ................................................................................................................................ 2603
NEW-CORE: US Monetary Base Growth Correlation with US Equity Market .......................................................................................... 2603
NEW-CORE: QE Correlation with Global Growth Barometer & S&P 500 ................................................................................................ 2604
NEW-CORE: Expect Exponential Growth in the Fed Balance Sheet ....................................................................................................... 2604
NEW-CORE: Total Assets Held by the Federal Reserve .......................................................................................................................... 2606
NEW-CORE: Exponential Growth in US Credit a Requirement ................................................................................................................ 2606
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2607
NEW-RESEARCH BEN BERNANKE: What tools does the Fed have left? Part 1: Negative interest rates ............................................. 2607
NEW-RESEARCH BEN BERNANKE: What tools does the Fed have left? Part 2: Targeting longer-term interest rates ........................ 2613
NEW-RESERCH Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating The Economy ................................................................................... 2616
FISCAL POLICY RECIPE FOR COLLAPSE: RISING MILITARY & SOCIAL WELFARE SPENDING ................................................... 2618
FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 2620
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2620
FINANCING The Debt Ceiling Debt Limit is Likely to Fall in November ..................................................................................................... 2620
FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .............................................................. 2620
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ........................................................................... 2621
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ........................................................................... 2621
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change ........................................................................................................ 2622
FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 2622
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 2623
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2624
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 2625
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 2625
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 2626
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Tipping Points
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Abstraction
Global Macro
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US Economy
Technical Analysis
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Fundamental Analysis
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Commentary
Thesis
Conclusions
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