Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 16

METODO GUMBEL

ORDEN

PRECIPITACION
MAXIMA

18
19

41.52
33.06
31.47
30.31
27.56
27.05
26.04
25.97
25.46
24.96
20.90
20.62
20.62
20.47
20.40
20.25
19.96
18.37
15.26

MEDIA

24.75

DESV.ST.

6.25

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

LOG( Pmax)

1.618
1.519
1.498
1.482
1.440
1.432
1.416
1.414
1.406
1.397
1.320
1.314
1.314
1.311
1.310
1.307
1.300
1.264
1.184
1.381
0.104

T(aos)
2
5
10
25
50
100
200
500
1000

P
0.5000
0.2000
0.1000
0.0400
0.0200
0.0100
0.0050
0.0020
0.0010

KT
-0.1478
0.9186
1.6247
2.5169
3.1787
3.8357
4.4902
5.3538
6.0065

P max
23.826
30.492
34.905
40.481
44.617
48.723
52.815
58.212
62.291

Coeficientes para las relaciones a la lluvia de duracin 24 horas

0.30

0.39

0.46

0.52

Fuente: D. F. Campos A., 1978

Duraciones, en horas
5
6
0.57

0.61

12

18

24

0.68

0.80

0.91

1.00

Precipitaciones mximas para diferentes tiempos de duracin de lluvias

Tiempo de
Duracin

Cociente

2 aos

5 aos

Precipitacin mxima Pd (mm) por tiempos de duracin


10 aos
25 aos
50 aos
100 aos
200 aos

24 hr
18 hr

X24
X18 = 91%

23.8262
21.6818

30.4917
27.7474

34.9048
31.7634

40.4808
36.8376

44.6174
40.6019

48.7235
44.3384

52.8146
48.0613

58.2120
52.9729

12 hr
8 hr

X12 = 80%
X8 = 68%

19.0610
16.2018

24.3934
20.7343

27.9239
23.7353

32.3847
27.5270

35.6940
30.3399

38.9788
33.1320

42.2517
35.9139

46.5696
39.5841

6 hr
5 hr

X6 = 61%
X5 = 57%

14.5340
13.5809

18.5999
17.3803

21.2919
19.8958

24.6933
23.0741

27.2166
25.4319

29.7213
27.7724

32.2169
30.1043

35.5093
33.1808

4 hr
3 hr

X4 = 52%
X3 = 46%

12.3896
10.9601

15.8557
14.0262

18.1505
16.0562

21.0500
18.6212

23.2011
20.5240

25.3362
22.4128

27.4636
24.2947

30.2702
26.7775

2 hr

X2 = 39%

9.2922

11.8918

13.6129

15.7875

17.4008

19.0022

20.5977

22.7027

1 hr

X1 = 30%

7.1479

9.1475

10.4714

12.1443

13.3852

14.6170

15.8444

17.4636

500 aos

1000 aos
62.2912
56.6850
49.8330
42.3580
37.9976
35.5060
32.3914
28.6540
24.2936
18.6874

Intensidades de lluvia a partir de Pd, segn Duracin de precipitacin y Frecuencia de la misma

Tiempo de duracin
Hr
min

2 aos

5 aos

Intensidad de la lluvia (mm /hr) segn el Periodo de Retorno


10 aos
25 aos
50 aos
100 aos
200 aos

24 hr

1440

0.9928

1.2705

1.4544

1.6867

1.8591

2.0301

2.2006

2.4255

18 hr

1080

1.2045

1.5415

1.7646

2.0465

2.2557

2.4632

2.6701

2.9429

12 hr
8 hr

720
480

1.5884
2.0252

2.0328
2.5918

2.3270
2.9669

2.6987
3.4409

2.9745
3.7925

3.2482
4.1415

3.5210
4.4892

3.8808
4.9480

6 hr

360

2.4223

3.1000

3.5487

4.1156

4.5361

4.9536

5.3695

5.9182

5 hr

300

2.7162

3.4761

3.9792

4.6148

5.0864

5.5545

6.0209

6.6362

4 hr

240

3.0974

3.9639

4.5376

5.2625

5.8003

6.3341

6.8659

7.5676

3 hr
2 hr

180
120

3.6534
4.6461

4.6754
5.9459

5.3521
6.8064

6.2071
7.8938

6.8413
8.7004

7.4709
9.5011

8.0982
10.2988

8.9258
11.3513

1 hr

60

7.1479

9.1475

10.4714

12.1443

13.3852

14.6170

15.8444

17.4636

500 aos

1000 aos
2.5955
3.1492
4.1527
5.2948
6.3329
7.1012
8.0979
9.5513
12.1468
18.6874

Representacin matemtica de las curvas Intensidad - Duracin - Perodo de retorno:

10

Ln (d) =

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

0.9928
1.2045
1.5884
2.0252
2.4223
2.7162
3.0974
3.6534
4.6461

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

-0.0073
0.1861
0.4627
0.7057
0.8847
0.9992
1.1306
1.2956
1.5360

-0.0529
1.2999
3.0445
4.3567
5.2076
5.6994
6.1962
6.7282
7.3537

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

7.1479

4.0943

1.9668

8.0528

16.7637

4980

29.4942

58.1555

d=

9.1603

90.0755

47.8862

n=

10

Ln (d) =

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

1.2705
1.5415
2.0328
2.5918
3.1000
3.4761
3.9639
4.6754
5.9459

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

0.2394
0.4328
0.7094
0.9524
1.1314
1.2459
1.3772
1.5423
1.7827

1.7410
3.0228
4.6673
5.8796
6.6595
7.1063
7.5481
8.0092
8.5347

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

9.1475

4.0943

2.2135

9.0628

16.7637

4980

37.7453

58.1555

11.6269

62.2313

346.9435

d=

115.2746

Intensidad (mm/hr)

t=

Duracin de la lluvia (min)

T=

Perodo de retorno (aos)

K, m, n =

Parmetros de ajuste

n=

Regresin T= 2 aos
8.0000

f(x) = 90.0755 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994

6.0000
4.0000
2.0000
0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1000

1200

1400

1600

Duracin (m in)
I Vs. t
Power ( I Vs. t)

346.9435

4.7473

I=

-0.6164

Periodo de retorno para T = 5 aos


N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

In te n s id a d (m m /h r )

4.5006

en la cual:

d
I =dt n
tn

Periodo de retorno para T = 2 aos


N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

I=

Con lo que de la anterior expresin se obtiene:

KT
tn

-0.6164

In te n s id ad (m m /h r )

d= KT

Realizando un cambio de variable:

I=

Regresin T= 5 aos
12.0000

f(x) = 115.2746 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994

8.0000

4.0000

0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

Duracin (m in)
I vs T
Power (I vs T)

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1.4544
1.7646
2.3270
2.9669
3.5487
3.9792
4.5376
5.3521
6.8064

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

0.3746
0.5679
0.8446
1.0875
1.2666
1.3811
1.5124
1.6775
1.9179

2.7240
3.9669
5.5567
6.7141
7.4552
7.8773
8.2889
8.7111
9.1818

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

10.4714

4.0943

2.3487

9.6162

16.7637

4980

43.2083

58.1555

12.9787

70.0922

346.9435

4.8825

d=

131.9586

n=

10

Ln (d) =

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

1.6867
2.0465
2.6987
3.4409
4.1156
4.6148
5.2625
6.2071
7.8938

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

0.5228
0.7161
0.9928
1.2357
1.4148
1.5293
1.6606
1.8257
2.0661

3.8018
5.0021
6.5317
7.6291
8.3275
8.7226
9.1012
9.4807
9.8913

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

12.1443

4.0943

2.4969

10.2230

16.7637

4980

50.1108

5.0307

58.1555

d=

14.4607

153.0388

78.7111

n=

10

Ln (d) =

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

1.8591
2.2557
2.9745
3.7925
4.5361
5.0864
5.8003
6.8413
8.7004

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

0.6201
0.8134
1.0901
1.3330
1.5121
1.6266
1.7579
1.9230
2.1634

4.5094
5.6817
7.1719
8.2298
8.9002
9.2776
9.6344
9.9860
10.3571

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

13.3852

4.0943

2.5942

10.6214

16.7637

4980

55.2314

58.1555

d=

168.6774

15.4337

84.3694

n=

4.0000

0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1000

1200

1400

1600

1000

1200

1400

1600

Duracin (m in)
I vs T
Power (I vs T)

Regresin T= 25 aos
16.0000
12.0000

f(x) = 153.0388 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994

8.0000
4.0000
0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

Duracin (m in)
I vs T

346.9435

5.1280

f(x) = 131.9586 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994

8.0000

Power (I vs T)

-0.6164

Periodo de retorno para T = 50 aos


N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

12.0000

-0.6164

Periodo de retorno para T = 25 aos


N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Regresin T= 10 aos

In te n s id a d (m m /h r )

Ln (d) =

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

-0.6164

346.9435

In te n s id ad (m m /h r )

10

In te n s id ad (m m /h r )

Periodo de retorno para T = 10 aos


N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Regresin T= 50 aos
15.0000

f(x) = 168.6774 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994

10.0000

5.0000

0.0000
0

200

400

600

800

Dur acin (m in)


I vs T
Power (I vs T)

Ln (d) =

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

2.0301
2.4632
3.2482
4.1415
4.9536
5.5545
6.3341
7.4709
9.5011

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

0.7081
0.9015
1.1781
1.4211
1.6001
1.7146
1.8459
2.0110
2.2514

5.1496
6.2966
7.7511
8.7733
9.4184
9.7797
10.1169
10.4431
10.7786

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

14.6170

4.0943

2.6822

10.9818

16.7637

4980

60.3143

58.1555

16.3140

89.4892

346.9435

5.2160

d=

184.2004

n=

Periodo de retorno para T = 200 aos


x

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

2.2006
2.6701
3.5210
4.4892
5.3695
6.0209
6.8659
8.0982
10.2988

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

0.7887
0.9821
1.2587
1.5017
1.6807
1.7952
1.9266
2.0916
2.3320

5.7360
6.8597
8.2815
9.2711
9.8930
10.2396
10.5588
10.8618
11.1646

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

15.8444

4.0943

2.7628

11.3119

16.7637

10

4980

65.3786

58.1555

17.1203

94.1780

346.9435

5.2967

d=

199.6668

n=

f(x) = 184.2004 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1200

1400

1600

Dur acin (m in)


I vs T
Power (I vs T)

-0.6164

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ln (d) =

Regresin T= 100 aos

-0.6164

In te n s id a d (m m /h r )

10

In te n s id ad (m m /h r )

Periodo de retorno para T = 100 aos


N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Regresin T= 200 aos

f(x) = 199.6668 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994
0

200

400

600

800

Duracin (m in)
Column E
Power (Column E)

1000

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

2.4255
2.9429
3.8808
4.9480
5.9182
6.6362
7.5676
8.9258
11.3513

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

0.8860
1.0794
1.3560
1.5990
1.7780
1.8925
2.0239
2.1889
2.4293

6.4436
7.5394
8.9217
9.8718
10.4657
10.7946
11.0921
11.3671
11.6304

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

17.4636

4.0943

2.8601

11.7103

16.7637

10

4980

72.0600

58.1555

18.0933

99.8368

346.9435

5.3940

d=

220.0718

n=

Periodo de retorno para T = 1000 aos


x

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

2.5955
3.1492
4.1527
5.2948
6.3329
7.1012
8.0979
9.5513
12.1468

7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875

0.9538
1.1471
1.4238
1.6667
1.8458
1.9603
2.0916
2.2567
2.4971

6.9362
8.0124
9.3673
10.2899
10.8644
11.1809
11.4633
11.7188
11.9547

52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668
22.9201

60

18.6874

4.0943

2.9278

11.9876

16.7637

10

4980

77.1096

58.1555

18.7706

103.7756

346.9435

5.4617

d=

235.4934

n=

f(x) = 220.0718 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1200

1400

1600

Duracin (m in)
Column E
Power (Column E)

-0.6164

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ln (d) =

Regresin T= 500 aos

-0.6164

In te n s id a d (m m /h r )

Ln (d) =

In te n s id a d (m m /h r )

Periodo de retorno para T = 500 aos


N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Regresin T= 1000 aos

f(x) = 235.4934 x^-0.6164


R = 0.9994
0

200

400

600

800

Duracin (m in)
Column E
Power (Column E)

1000

Serie T= 2 aos
x

y
1440

0.9928

1080

1.2045

720

1.5884

480

2.0252

360

2.4223

300

2.7162

240

3.0974

180

3.6534

120

4.6461

60

7.1479

Serie T= 5 aos

1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120

1.2705
1.5415
2.0328
2.5918
3.1000
3.4761
3.9639
4.6754
5.9459

60

9.1475

Serie T= 10 aos

y
1440

1.4544

1080

1.7646

720

2.3270

480

2.9669

360

3.5487

300

3.9792

240

4.5376

180

5.3521

120

6.8064

60

10.4714

Serie T= 25 aos

y
1440

1.6867

1080

2.0465

720

2.6987

480

3.4409

360

4.1156

300

4.6148

240

5.2625

180

6.2071

120

7.8938

60

12.1443

Serie T= 50 aos

y
1440

1.8591

1080

2.2557

720

2.9745

480

3.7925

360

4.5361

300

5.0864

240

5.8003

180

6.8413

120

8.7004

60

13.3852

Serie T= 100 aos

y
1440

2.0301

1080

2.4632

720

3.2482

480

4.1415

360

4.9536

300

5.5545

240

6.3341

180

7.4709

120

9.5011

60

14.6170

Serie T= 200 aos

y
1440

2.2006

1080

2.6701

720

3.5210

480

4.4892

360

5.3695

300

6.0209

240

6.8659

180

8.0982

120

10.2988

60

15.8444

Serie T= 500 aos

y
1440

2.4255

1080

2.9429

720

3.8808

480

4.9480

360

5.9182

300

6.6362

240

7.5676

180

8.9258

120

11.3513

60

17.4636

Serie T= 1000 aos

y
1440

2.5955

1080

3.1492

720

4.1527

480

5.2948

360

6.3329

300

7.1012

240

8.0979

180

9.5513

120

12.1468

60

18.6874

Resumen de aplicacin de regresin potencial


Periodo de
Retorno (aos)

Trmino ctte. de
regresin (d)

Coef. de
regresin [n]

2
5
10
25

90.07554041413
115.27460523779
131.95857879403
153.03882361071

-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809

50
100
200
500
1000

168.67735344058
184.20041082099
199.66682717254
220.07182671153
235.49344188269

-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809
-0.61638608809

Promedio =

166.49526756500

-0.61638608809

d= KT

Regresin potencial
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

ln x

ln y

ln x*ln y

(lnx)^2

90.0755

0.6931

4.5006

3.1196

0.4805

5
10
25
50
100

115.2746
131.9586
153.0388
168.6774
184.2004

1.6094
2.3026
3.2189
3.9120
4.6052

4.7473
4.8825
5.0307
5.1280
5.2160

7.6405
11.2423
16.1932
20.0608
24.0207

2.5903
5.3019
10.3612
15.3039
21.2076

200
500

199.6668
220.0718

5.2983
6.2146

5.2967
5.3940

28.0633
33.5213

28.0722
38.6214

1000

235.4934

6.9078

5.4617

37.7280

47.7171

1498.4574

34.7619

45.6574

181.5897

169.6559

Promedio =
9

Ln (K) =

1892

4.5011

Termino constante de regresin (K) =


Coef. de regresin (m) =

C o n s t a n t e d e Re g r e s i n d

En funcin del cambio de variable realizado, se realiza otra regresin de potencia entre las columnas del periodo de retorno (T) y el trmino constante de regresin (d),
para obtener valores de la ecuacin:

240.0000
220.0000

f(x) = 90.1141 x^0.1481


R = 0.9709

200.0000
180.0000
160.0000
140.0000
120.0000
100.0000
0

K=

90.1141
0.148086

90.1141

m=

0.1481

50

100

150

200

250

300

Pe rodo de Retorno (aos )


d Vs. T

Power ( d Vs. T)

350

400

450

500

y
2

90.0755

115.2746

10

131.9586

25

153.0388

50

168.6774

100

184.2004

200

199.6668

500

220.0718

1000

235.4934

La ecuacin de intensidad vlida para la cuenca resulta:


Donde:

0.148086
90.1141

I=

I = intensidad de precipitacin (mm/hr)

* T

T = Periodo de Retorno (aos)

0.6163861

t = Tiempo de duracin de precipitacin (min)

Tabla de intensidades - Tiempo de duracin

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

60
120
180
240
300
360
420
480
540
600
660
720
780
840
900
960
1020
1080
1140
1200
1260
1320
1380
1440

INTENSIDAD (mm/h)

Duracion (hr)

pmax en
24hr(mm)

Duracin en minutos
2

10

25

50

100

200

500

1000

8.00
5.22

9.17
5.98

10.16
6.63

11.64
7.59

12.89
8.41

14.29
9.32

15.83
10.33

18.13
11.83

20.09
13.11

4.07
3.41

4.66
3.90

5.16
4.32

5.91
4.95

6.55
5.49

7.26
6.08

8.04
6.74

9.21
7.72

10.21
8.55

2.97
2.65

3.40
3.04

3.77
3.37

4.31
3.86

4.78
4.27

5.30
4.73

5.87
5.25

6.72
6.01

7.45
6.66

2.41
2.22

2.76
2.54

3.06
2.82

3.51
3.23

3.89
3.58

4.31
3.97

4.77
4.39

5.46
5.03

6.06
5.58

2.07
1.94

2.37
2.22

2.62
2.46

3.00
2.81

3.33
3.12

3.69
3.46

4.09
3.83

4.68
4.39

5.19
4.86

1.83
1.73

2.09
1.98

2.32
2.20

2.65
2.52

2.94
2.79

3.26
3.09

3.61
3.42

4.14
3.92

4.58
4.34

1.65
1.57

1.89
1.80

2.09
2.00

2.39
2.29

2.65
2.53

2.94
2.81

3.26
3.11

3.73
3.56

4.13
3.95

1.51
1.45
1.40

1.73
1.66
1.60

1.91
1.84
1.77

2.19
2.11
2.03

2.43
2.33
2.25

2.69
2.59
2.49

2.98
2.87
2.76

3.42
3.28
3.16

3.79
3.64
3.50

1.35
1.30

1.54
1.49

1.71
1.65

1.96
1.89

2.17
2.10

2.41
2.33

2.67
2.58

3.05
2.95

3.38
3.27

1.26
1.23

1.45
1.40

1.60
1.56

1.84
1.78

2.03
1.97

2.25
2.19

2.50
2.42

2.86
2.78

3.17
3.08

1.19
1.16

1.36
1.33

1.51
1.47

1.73
1.68

1.92
1.87

2.13
2.07

2.36
2.29

2.70
2.62

2.99
2.91

1.13

1.29

1.43

1.64

1.82

2.01

2.23

2.56

2.83

Curvas IDF de la cuenca


25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
0

120

240

360

480

600

720

TIEMPO DE DURACION (min)

840

960

1080

1200

1320

1440

1560