Vol.

: 292
2nd May,2016

Index

MarketView
1 Market View:

Consolidation in market is expected

CompanyUpdate
2
Last Saturday, we have discussed about the next trigger in the market is the corporate earnings. The

earning season has started and seems to have found the old edge. The business confidence has started
Aroundthe
to improve and the guidance is also relatively better. It true that the global problem has not subsided
Economy

3
meaningfully and the fear of hard landing is still looming. The Fed is also taking into account the uncer
tain global situation and is clearly divided for raising the rates. Recently they kept the rate unchanged
KnowledgeCorner 3 with some hawkish comments but the chances of raising the rates in June clearly depend on the data of

consumer spending and unemployment claims and some experts do not see any rate hike during this
MutualFund
4 fiscal. Our market has declined from the psychological level of 8000 and closed near to its 200 DMA.
The world market was expecting some more stimulus from The Bank of Japan which didnt happen and

CommodityCorner5 the currency market has started to behave violently and created high volatility in currency market and
equity too. The rise of Yen of almost 3% in a day pushed the corporate world over to unwind their Yen

ForexCorner
6 carry trade positions and run for the cover. So this volatility seems to be a temporary one for Indian market and any positive news from earnings front coupled with monsoon expectation may revive the market

uptrend. There are certain important technical resistances towards the journey of 8100-8200 but we
ReportCard
7 seem to be on track unless the important support of 7550-7600 is decisively broken.

ShortTermCallStatus8
Kamal Jhaveri

MD- Jhaveri Securities

Editor&Contributor
MargiShah

SpecialContributors
AsheshTrivedi
AdityaNahar

Forsuggestions,feedback
andqueries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com

-1-

Vol.: 292
2nd May, 2016

Company Update : Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

Financial Basics

Company Basics
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)

538268

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)

10.00
10.41

WONDERLA

P/E (x) (TTM)

37.11

P/BV (x) (TTM)

BETA
RONW (%)

5.51
0.6705
20.00

56.50
2182.90

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Non. Promoters
Public & Others
Govt Holding

% Holding
12.38
4.38
70.99
0.00
9.01
3.25

Valuation : WONDERLA is trading at ` 381. We recommend Accumulate with target price of ` 498 , valuing
stock 30xFY18E EPS of `16.62.The stock currently trades at 32.47x of FY16E, 27.93xof FY17E and 22.98x of FY18E.
Company Overview
Wonderla Holidays is one of the largest operators of amusement parks in India, which owns and operates two parks under
the brand name Wonderla, situated at Kochi , Bangalore, Hyderabad. In FY16, it had a cumulative annual footfall of .
Company has also developed the Wonderla Resort in Bangalore, a Three Star leisure resort, next to its amusement park,
comprising of 84 luxury rooms.
Investment rational
Wonderla Hyderabad- next feather in Wonderla s kitty
'Wonderla', the third theme park from Wonderla Holidays in the country and the first in the State, is built in 50 acres of land
with an investment of Rs. 250 crore. It has 43 attractions, which include 25 land based and 18 water based rides. A reverse
looping roller coaster imported from Netherlands, and space themed flying theatre that is yet to be opened, would be the
major attractions. Management plans to launch a fourth park in Chennai at a cost of Rs. 300 Cr. , that would be their biggest
theme based amusement park.
Strong operating experience - a key requirement as Operator
WHL s management has rich operating experience in operating the park, which is the key requirement for success in this
industry. The first park was opened in Kochi in 2000 and the next one in Bangalore in 2005. Thus, promoters have over 14
years of rich and successful experience in park operations. Amusement parks operate for 365 days from 11am-7pm and
alcohol-based beverages are not allowed inside.
Strong competitive advantage- High entry barrier
Development of large amusement parks typically require huge investment involving land acquisition, establishing of
infrastructure and rides, and regular investment in creation of new rides. Due to its highly capital intensive nature,
achieving the required footfall becomes highly critical, especially in newly developed parks, in order to break-even. ~250 Cr.
capex is required to established an amusement park .Companies existing parks of Wonderla at Bangalore and Kochi are generating sufficient revenue and have witnessed steady growth in footfalls over the years.
- 2-

Vol.:
292
2nd May,2016

Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :

The Bank of Japan unexpectedly held off from expanding monetary stimulus on Wednesday, 27 April 2016. The Bank of
Japan (BOJ) voted to keep its current level of asset purchases unchanged and rates on hold while announcing a 300 billion ($2.69 billion) lending program to support banks in the region hit by this month's Kyushu earthquake.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged after the conclusion of a two-day monetary policy meeting
on Wednesday, 27 April 2016. The Fed's signal that it was in no rush to raise rates relieved investors.
Bharti Airtel on Friday, 29 April 2016 said that it will undertake buyback of shares only after the approval from Delhi
High Court for the scheme of amalgamation of its wholly owned subsidiary with the company.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Among domestic macro economic data, Markit Economics will announce the India Manufacturing PMI for April 2016 on
Monday, 2 May 2016.
The Nikkei India Services PMI will be declared on Wednesday, 4 May 2016.
In the primary market, the initial public offer (IPO) of dairy firm Parag Milk Foods opens for bidding on Wednesday, 4
May 2016. The issue closes on Friday, 6 May 2016. The price band of the IPO is Rs 220 to Rs 227 per share.
On the global front, On Monday, 2 May 2016, Markit Economics will announce the Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI,
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and the Markit US Manufacturing PMI. Markit Economics will announce Caixin
China General Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, 3 May 2016. The influential monthly US nonfarm payroll data for April
2016 will be released by the Labor Department on Friday, 6 May 2016.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Mon : India manufacturing PMI, CCL products, HDFC, L&T finance earning
2. Tue: Adani ports, Adani power, BASF, Century textiles, Cera sanitary ware, MRF, Nitin spinners, TVS motors earnings
3. Wed: India Services PMI, SKS microfinance, Jindal steel, DHFL, Adani Enterprise, Hexaware technology earnings
4. Thu: Castrol, Eicher Motors, Emami, Gillette India, GE shipping, Godrej Properties, Hero MotoCorp, P&G earnings
5. Fri: Siemens , Wockhardt, Eveready Industries, Inox wind, Pfizer, Reliance Capital , SPARC, Titan Company earnings

Knowledge Corner :
Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)

Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a well-known method of estimating the price of an asset. The theory assumes an asset's return is
dependent on various macroeconomic, market and security-specific factors.

The APT was a revolutionary model as it helps the user decide whether a security is undervalued or overvalued and so an individual
can profit from the information. APT is also very useful for building portfolios because it allows managers to test whether their portfolios are exposed to certain factors.

- 3-

Vol.: 292
2nd May,2016

Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Fund Name

Fund (%)

Sector Weights

Scheme Name

Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme Regular Plan

AMC

Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd

Type

Small Cap

Chemicals

9.63

Category

Open-ended and Equity

Services

9.52

Launch Date

March 2007

Construction

6.91

Healthcare

6.67

Fund Manager

Pankaj Tibrewal

Textiles

4.28

Net Assets
(` In crore )

Rs. 817.5 crore as on Mar 31, 2016

Technology

4.21

Metals

3.62

History

2013

2014

2015

17.51
13.77

Cons Durable

10.64

2016

NAV (Rs)

13.14

24.61

26.68

26.41

Total Return (%)

-5.07

87.32

8.42

-1.02

-11.83

55.93

12.48

0.20

+/- S&P BSE Mid Small

-0.42

32.95

0.38

3.12

Rank (Fund/Category)

29/32

17/50

25/41

8/36

52 Week High (Rs)

14.22

24.61

27.86

52 Week Low (Rs)

9.78

12.31

24.35

Net Assets (Rs.Cr)

69.33

274.15

792.54

Expense Ratio (%)

2.79

2.89

2.71

+/- Nifty 50

Financial
Engineering

776.16
-

Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation

19.64

Sharpe Ratio

1.02

Beta

1.06
0.69

R-Squared
Alpha

15.04

Composition (%)
Equity

95.13

Debt

4.72

Cash

0.16

Fund Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

Fund Style
Investment Style
Growth

Blend

Value

Medium
Small

Fund
CNX Nify
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-

Capitalization

Large

Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

Vol.: 292
2nd May,2016

Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week rallied where gold prices surged to the largest weekly gain of the past 11 weeks and silver gained to its highest since January last year as the Bank of Japan's decision the previous day to hold off expanding monetary stimulus weighed on stock markets and the
dollar and on the heels of the Fed doing nothing. The FOMC closed out their 2 day meeting this past Wednesday by keeping the target interest rate
steady. The Fed tried to keep market participants thinking about future rate hikes only to be brushed aside for now. Fed Funds futures are pricing in a
12% probability of a rate hike in June and a 44% probability of a rate hike by September. These figures are markedly lower following the FOMC meeting
this past week. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) jolted markets by fixing the yuan 0.56% higher against the dollar, its strongest one-day move since
2005 when it decoupled with the dollar. The move came in the wake of two closely-watched central bank meetings earlier this week when the Federal
Reserve and the Bank of Japan both stood pat by leaving their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The U.S. central bank showed little sign it was in a
hurry to tighten monetary policy. The Commerce Department said its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in March rose by 0.8% on
an annual basis, down slightly from February's annual gains of 1.0%. The Core PCE Index, meanwhile, increased by 1.6%, also lower compared with
the previous month's level of 1.7%. Core PCE inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation. Thedollar then hit session-lows after the University of Michigan said consumer sentiment in April fell 0.7 to 89.0, dropping to a seven-month low. The Fed
kept the door open to a hike in June, but showed little sign it was in a hurry to tighten monetary policy. U.S. data supported views the Fed will take a
cautious stance in hiking rates this year. The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, fell to a sixmonth low on Friday of 71.8, down from 81.3 at the start of the month.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY GOLD JUNE @ 29900 SL 29600 TGT 30500-31000. BUY SILVER JULY @ 41850 SL 41200 TGT42500-43500

BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Base metals prices ended with gains last week where most of the gains came on Friday underpinned by a weaker dollar and expectations of economic recovery in the world's top consumer China. Prices remained supported ahead of new economic data in China that investors hope
will confirm that a recovery is gaining strength. China's central bank will improve the country's financial supervisory framework and further open up the
financial market to foreign firms during the 13th Five-Year Plan, vice governor Chen Yulu was quoted as saying in a central bank notice. The central
bank will increase the efficiency of financial services to the real economy in order to support China's economic transition, and will fend off financial risks,
Chen said in the notice posted on the People's Bank of China website. Chinese exchanges stepped up efforts to cool speculation in some commodities
and investors awaited a Federal Reserve policy decision. Bourses in China, the worlds biggest metals consumer, announced further measures to curb
speculation in contracts ranging from steel to iron ore and coking coal, including higher fees and a reduction in night hours. The moves add to a raft of
changes this month that have made it more expensive for investors to trade. Clues to Chinese demand will come next week with the release of surveys
of purchasing managers in the country's manufacturing sector. The metal, widely used in power and construction, jumped to $5,091 a tonne last week,
its highest in more than four weeks, on optimism about Chinese consumption after a slew of above consensus data on new loans, industrial production,
investment and housing. According to ILZSG forecasts, global demand for refined zinc metal will witness a growth of 3.5% to 14.33 million tonnes in
2016. The rising infrastructure investments in China will be the main driver for the global demand growth. The Chinese demand alone is predicted to
grow at 4.5% during the year. The usage in Europe is expected to remain stable after rising by 3.2% during 2015. The International Nickel Study Group
(INSG) has projected a 49,000-tonne deficit in the nickel market in 2016, an increase from its October forecast of a 23,000-tonne deficit for this year.
Prices remained supported ahead of new economic data in China that investors hope will confirm that a recovery is gaining strength.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY COPPER JUNE @ 332 SL 324 TGT 340-356. BUY ZINC MAY @ 126 SL 122 TGT 132-136. BUY NICKEL MAY @ 620
SL 590 TGT 656-670. BUY ALUMINIUM MAY @ 109.50 SL 106 TGT 112.50-114.BUY LEAD MAY @ 117 SL 114 TGT 121-125

ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL: Crude oil prices gained by more than three percent after U.S. crude output dropped and Federal Reserve policy makers signaled
theyre open to raising interest rates in June. However prices after rising to 2016 highs pared gains on Friday after a survey showed that OPEC production in April reached near-record highs, reiterating concerns related to the massive supply glut on global energy markets. A survey found that OPEC
increased production by 170,000 barrels per day from 32.47 million to 32.64 million bpd, according to shipping data and oil company sources. The total
nearly matched January's level of 32.65 million, following the return of Indonesia to the 13-member oil cartel. In April, significant gains from Iran and Iraq
more than offset a lack of production in Kuwait which was restrained by a three-day worker strike last week. Investors shrugged off a bullish report from
Baker Hughes after the oil services firm reported that U.S. oil rigs last week dropped by 11 to 332 last week to hit a fresh six-year low. The rig count has
moved lower in each of the last six weeks. Major reductions among U.S. oil rigs typically provide lagging indication that domestic production is about to
level off. Additionally, Saudi output is expected to edge up by 350,000 barrels to around 10.5 million barrels per day, sources told, just as tankers filled
with unsold oil are at sea seeking buyers. Still, falling production outside OPEC, notably in the United States, has raised hopes that the worst of the
nearly two-year excess of oil was over. Natural gas prices ended with around six percent losses as heavy supplies and forecasts for fading heat in the
eastern and central U.S. continue to weigh on the market. An explosion and fire on a major Spectra Energy Corp. pipeline that crosses half the U.S. is
disrupting natural gas shipments from western Pennsylvania to the Northeast. Crews shut off the gas feeding the flames, which burst out of Spectras
36-inch Texas Eastern pipeline a spokesman said. While repairs will start as soon as possible, its unclear when service will be restored, sources said.
This led to support prices on speculation that the outage will limit supplies to the Northeast. Stockpiles stand 48% above the five-year average for this
time of year. But traders are also watching signs that production is declining and set to fall further as companies cut spending on new drilling.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL MAY @ 2950 SL 2850 TGT 3050-3180. BUY NAT GAS MAY @ 136 SL 130 TGT 145-154.

- 5-

Vol.: 292
2nd May,2016

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

Market Recap :

The Indian rupee weakened slightly in early hours

on Monday, 02 May 2016 on increased demand for
the American currency from importers and banks.

The domestic currency opened at Rs 66.41 against

the dollar but recovered to a high of 66.31 so far
during the day.

In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last

seen trading at 66.37.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures

the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted
basket of six major currencies, was down 0.13% to
92.90.

Market Eye Week ahead :

USDINR ended below the primary trend line for the third consecutive week. The Average Directional moving index
(ADX) is below 20 on both daily and weekly charts indicating range bound movement for pair. A daily close below 66.32
will take the parity down around key supports at 66.10/65.95/65.81 marks respectively. On the other side, key resistance
levels are seen at 66.48/66.72/ 66.86/ 66.95/ 67.15 levels.

USD/INR
Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

USD/INR

66.24

66.46

66.68

66.90

67.12

66.91

66.47

66.67

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

EUR/INR

74.40

75.19

75.71

76.50

77.02

76.24

74.93

75.97

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

GBP/INR

95.24

96.33

97.14

98.23

99.04

97.95

96.05

97.42

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

JPY/INR

58.85

60.51

61.46

63.12

64.07

62.40

59.79

62.18

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

-- 46--

Vol.: 292
2nd May,2016

J Street Recommendations Report Card

Nifty last week opened at 7894.75, made high of 7992, fell to low of 7788 and finally closed the week at 7849.80 thereby showed a net
fall of 49 points. If a minor correction or retracement of the rise from 7516 to 7978 is witnessed then traders look for retracement levels
of the rise for accumulation. Retracement levels are placed 7800-7747-7695. Accumulate at retracement levels with a positional stop
loss of 7500. In the event of a breakout and close above 7992 expect the rally to be witnessed towards the next supply zone of
8217-8336. In the event of a fall and close below 7500, the slide can be seen towards 7231 and 6768.

Macroeconomic data, next batch of Q4 results of India Inc., trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)
and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate market
trend in the near term.

Top Fundamental Stocks

Rec. Date

CMP on Rec.

CMP

Target

Absolute
Return @
CMP

Wonderla Holidays

25/04/2016

387

381

498

-1%

Accumulate

Mold-Tek Packaging

04/04/2016

138

149

179

8%

Buy

Jamna Auto

22/02/2016

133

143

181

7%

Buy

MT Educare

1/2/2016

164

169

230

3%

Buy

Garware-Wall Ropes

28/12/2015

425

354

550

-17%

Buy

Welspun syntax

23/11/2015

121

106

223

-13%

Buy

Natco Pharma

2/11/2015

509

476

636

-6%

Buy

SRF

21/09/2015

1140

1357

1374

19%

Buy

Ahluwalia contracts

24/08/2015

235

279

368

19%

Buy

Infinite Computer Sol.

20/07/2015

190

220

255

16%

Buy

Ambika Cotton Mills

18/05/2015

880

850

1149

-3%

Buy

4/5/2015

298

260

430

-13%

Buy

Omkar speciality
Chemicals

16/03/2015

152

181

251

19%

Buy

DHFL

16/02/2015

252

204

368

-19%

Accumulate

TV Today Network

27/01/2015

222

313

337

41%

Buy

M&M

12/1/2015

1238

1336

1452

8%

Buy

Havells India

27/10/2014

274

335

346

22%

Buy

PTC India Fin. Ser.

7/7/2014

39

38

45

-2%

Buy

Adani Port

5/7/2014

280

234

347

-17%

Accumulate

Stocks

Sadbhav Engineering

Status

It'snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandhow
muchyoulosewhenyou'rewrong.
- 7-

Vol.: 292
2nd May,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

9Mar16

10Mar16

11Mar16

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

142.00 137.00

148

TA

3.6

382

378.00 390.00

360

SL

4.2

411

418

414.50 404.00

430

SL

4.0

HINDUNILVR BUY

845

858

851.50 875.00

825

TA

2.8

TATAMOTOR BUY

362

368

365.00 376.00

348

TA

3.0

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

RANGE

BANKBARODA SELL

140

144

RELCAPITAL BUY

374

SELL

14Mar16
15Mar16

AXISBANK

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

16Mar16

HDFC

SELL

1106

1128 1117.00 1080.00

1150

SL

3.8

17Mar16

ICICIBANK

BUY

223

233

228.00 240.00

210

TA

5.3

18Mar16

INDUSINDBK SELL

900

920

910.00 880.00

942

SL

3.5

21Mar16

VOLTAS

BUY

265

270

267.50 276.00

256

TA

3.2

10

22Mar16

INDIACEM

BUY

83

86

84.50

88.00

80

TA

4.1

11

23Mar16

BHEL

BUY

115

118

116.50 120.00

112

SL

3.8

12

28Mar16

TATASTEEL

BUY

314

320

317.00 328.00

304

TA

3.5

13

29Mar16

AXISBANK

SELL

421

428

424.50 411.00

440

SL

3.0

14

30Mar16

CIPLA

SELL

500

510

505.00 490.00

520

SL

2.9

15

31Mar16

BUY

6750

6860 6805.00 7120.00

6600

TA

4.6

16

4Apr16

BUY

2930

2990 2960.00 3140.00

2850

TA

5.8

17

5Apr16

SELL

94

97

95.50

90.00

100

TA

6.1

18

6Apr16

BAJAJFINANCE
HEROMO
TOCO
ORIENTAL
BANK
SBIN

SELL

182

186

184.00 174.00

191

SL

3.8

19

7Apr16

UNIONBANK SELL

126

129

127.50 120.00

133

SL

3.4

20

8Apr16

LT

SELL

1176

1198 1187.00 1132.00

1230

SL

3.6

21

11Apr16

TCS

SELL

2415

2463 2439.00 2375.00

2520

SL

3.2

22

12Apr16

MOTHERSUMI BUY

250

255

252.50 260.00

244

TA

6.8

23

13Apr16

110

113

111.50 115.00

107

SL

4.0

- 7-

ASHOKLEY

BUY

Vol.: 292
2nd May,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

STATUS

CMP

%
RETURN

24

18Apr16

DHFL

BUY

200

205

202.50 210.00

194

TA

3.9

25

20Apr16

SRTTRANSFIN BUY

990

1010 1035.00 1055.00

960

SL

4.0

26

21Apr16

HINDUNILVR BUY

894

914

904.00 935.00

860

SL

4.2

27

22Apr16

ICICIBANK

BUY

251

255

253.00 261.00

243

SL

3.8

28

25Apr16

ASHOKLEY

BUY

103

106

104.50 111.00

100

OPEN

0.0

29

26Apr16

CEATLTD

BUY

1130

1150 1035.00 1195.00

1100

OPEN

0.0

30

27Apr16

YESBANK

BUY

902

922

912.00 960.00

875

OPEN

0.0

31

28Apr16

RCOM

BUY

59

61

60.00

56

OPEN

0.0

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB

16

51.61

SL+EXIT

15

48.38

TOTAL

31

100

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

SL

66.00

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

- 7-

Vol.: 292
2nd May,2016