Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Bulkcarrier Earnings
Avg. $/day
Mar '15-
Sep '15-
Aug '15
Feb '16
Change
Capesize
8,995
7,889
-12%
Panamax (spot)
7,910
6,227
-21%
Panamax (trip)
6,076
4,085
-33%
Handymax (52k)
7,125
5,053
-29%
Handysize (t/c)
Weighted Avg.
6,490
7,414
5,615
5,947
-13%
-20%
Tanker Earnings
Avg. $/day
Mar '15-
Sep '15-
Avg. $/day
%
Change
Aug '15
Feb '16
Change
25,667
16,167
-37%
56,281
73,063
30%
14,767
6,742
-54%
44,688
45,599
2%
12,500
7,150
-43%
37,876
34,219
-10%
11,417
6,983
-39%
Products (dirty)
25,485
24,916
-2%
9,483
7,258
-23%
Products (clean)
23,536
17,682
-25%
10,050
7,492
-25%
-3%
7,883
9,907
6,633
6,663
-16%
-33%
Weighted Avg.
31,050
30,090
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Figure 1.1.3
10
Jan-16
30
Jan-15
80
Jan-14
40
Jan-13
60
Jan-12
Jan-11
$ ,000/d
Jan-10
Figure 1.1.1
Jan-09
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-08
70
Jan-07
ClarkSea Index
Jan-07
10
Jan-06
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
50
Jan-06
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
$ ,000/d
$ ,000/d
60
40
50
30
40
30
20
20
10
Figure 1.1.2
110
50
100
90
20
60
50
40
30
Figure 1.1.4
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
70
Jan-07
Jan-06
60
Jan-07
Jan-06
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
10
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
GDP (% yoy)
OECD
USA
Japan
European Union
Germany
France
UK
Italy
Russia
China
Developing Asia
South Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong SAR
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
India
Africa
S & C America
WORLD
2013
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.7
0.4
0.7
1.7
-1.7
1.3
7.7
7.0
2.9
2.2
3.1
4.4
2.8
4.7
6.9
5.2
2.9
3.3
2014
1.8
2.4
0.0
3.4
1.6
0.2
2.9
-0.4
0.6
7.3
6.8
3.3
3.8
2.5
2.9
0.9
6.0
7.3
5.0
1.3
3.4
2015
1.9
2.5
0.6
3.5
1.5
1.1
2.2
0.8
-3.8
6.9
6.6
2.7
2.2
2.5
2.2
2.5
4.7
7.3
3.5
-0.3
3.1
2016* 2017*
2.1
2.1
2.6
2.6
1.0
0.3
3.5
3.6
1.7
1.7
1.3
1.5
2.2
2.2
1.3
1.2
-0.6
1.0
6.3
6.0
6.3
6.2
3.2
3.6
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.6
4.5
5.0
7.5
7.5
4.0
4.7
-0.3
1.6
3.4
3.6
8%
2014
2015(e)
7%
2016(f)
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
World
Advanced Emerging
Economies Economies
Source: IMF
Figure 1.2.1
Industrial Production
30
25
% p.a.
160
China
$/bbl
140
20
120
15
100
10
5
80
60
-5
40
Figure 1.2.2
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-05
-20
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
20
Jan-07
-15
Jan-06
-10
Figure 1.2.3
11
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
12
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
y-o-y % growth
Crude Oil
Container
Gas & Chems
16%
1.6
14%
12%
Seaborne trade
growth
10%
1.4
1.2
8%
6%
4%
1.0
0.8
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
0.6
0.4
0.2
-6%
2011-14
2005-10
2000-04
2016(f)
mt
Oil
Dry Bulk
Other
2,000
30%
25%
1,500
20%
1,000
15%
10%
500
5%
0
Figure 1.3.3
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0%
2006
2016(f)
1,344
-1.5%
1,130
-0.4%
2,228
1.9%
4,702
0.3%
1,938
3.5%
1,063
3.6%
3,001
3.5%
623
3.7%
1,762
4.5%
869
2.8%
10,958
2.2%
Figure 1.3.2
2005
2015(e)
1,365
2.0%
1,135
-6.4%
2,188
2.1%
4,687
-0.1%
1,872
3.8%
1,026
6.3%
2,899
4.7%
601
2.7%
1,686
2.9%
845
2.5%
10,718
2.0%
Figure 1.3.1
2,500
2015(e)
1995-99
2016(f)
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
0.0
1990-94
-8%
Seaborne Trades
(mt)
2012
1,110
5.5%
Coal
1,123
12.3%
Other Dry Bulk
1,999
3.4%
Total Dry Bulk
4,232
Trades (mt)
6.2%
Crude
1,906
2.9%
Products
915
0.5%
Total Oil Trades
2,822
(mt)
2.2%
Total Gas &
556
Chems Trade (mt) 1.1%
Total Container
1,463
Trade (mt)
3.6%
Total Other Dry
768
Trade (mt)
5.4%
Total Seaborne
9,841
Trade (mt)
4.3%
Iron Ore
2013
1,190
7.2%
1,179
5.0%
2,112
5.7%
4,481
5.9%
1,836
-3.7%
957
4.5%
2,793
-1.0%
571
2.7%
1,543
5.4%
796
3.7%
10,184
3.5%
2014
1,338
12.5%
1,213
2.8%
2,143
1.5%
4,694
4.8%
1,805
-1.7%
965
0.9%
2,770
-0.8%
585
2.5%
1,638
6.2%
825
3.6%
10,512
3.2%
13
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Tanker Demand
Following average growth of 1.0% p.a. in 200514, seaborne oil trade (crude and products
combined) grew by an encouraging 4.7% in
2015, supporting tanker demand. Seaborne
crude trade grew 3.8% to 37.6m bpd in 2015,
as the low oil price boosted refinery throughput
and spurred stockbuilding. The surge in trade
also led to greater waiting time, whilst demand
for tankers for oil storage also increased. Crude
tanker deadweight demand is estimated to have
risen 3.6% in 2015, with long-haul trade from
the Middle East to Asia rising firmly. Seaborne
products trade rose 6.3% to 23.0m bpd, partly
underpinned by firmer demand for transportation fuels. Expansion in refinery capacity in the
Middle East bolstered products trade from the
region, particularly to Asia, and intra-European
trade also increased. Overall, product tanker
demand grew by an estimated 5.9% in 2015.
Tanker Supply
Total
14
2012
13.8
-3.2%
23.0
-1.8%
21.2
3.9%
32.2
3.4%
90.1
1.1%
2013
13.6
-1.1%
23.4
2.1%
21.9
3.4%
32.4
0.6%
91.4
1.4%
2014
13.5
-0.9%
23.5
0.2%
22.5
2.6%
32.6
0.6%
92.1
0.7%
2015
13.7
1.5%
23.7
0.8%
23.5
4.5%
32.8
0.7%
93.7
1.8%
2016(f)
13.7
0.0%
23.8
0.4%
24.1
2.8%
33.2
1.2%
94.8
1.2%
2011
9.5
6.3%
16.8
5.5%
7.1
4.4%
10.5
2.1%
13.5
2.4%
31.6
-4.3%
88.9
1.0%
2012
9.8
4.0%
18.0
6.8%
7.4
4.2%
9.7
-7.3%
13.7
1.5%
32.0
1.2%
90.6
1.9%
2013
9.7
-1.4%
18.4
2.5%
7.4
0.4%
9.1
-6.4%
13.9
1.1%
32.6
1.9%
91.1
0.5%
2014
9.7
0.4%
18.3
-0.5%
7.5
1.6%
8.5
-7.0%
13.9
0.2%
35.2
7.9%
93.1
2.2%
2015
10.4
6.8%
18.9
3.0%
7.7
1.5%
8.5
0.6%
14.0
0.6%
36.4
3.4%
95.8
2.9%
2016(f)
10.4
-0.1%
19.2
2.0%
7.8
1.4%
8.7
1.8%
14.0
0.3%
36.0
-1.1%
96.1
0.3%
Crude Exports
(MBpd)
Middle East
Africa
Caribs & L .Am
FSU
Others
WORLD TOTAL
Crude Imports
(MBpd)
United States
EU Europe
China
Other Asia
Others
WORLD TOTAL
Products Exports
(MBpd)
Asia
Europe
2011
14.3
-3.0%
23.4
-2.0%
20.4
2.9%
31.1
2.5%
89.1
0.5%
Latin America
Others
WORLD TOTAL
Products Imports
(MBpd)
Europe
Total Asia
Others
WORLD TOTAL
2011
17.9
8.9%
6.3
-13.8%
4.5
1.2%
4.8
-8.0%
3.6
-12.1%
37.2
-1.1%
2012
17.4
-2.8%
7.4
16.9%
4.6
1.4%
4.9
1.9%
4.0
10.3%
38.3
2.9%
2013
17.6
0.8%
6.6
-10.6%
4.4
-5.0%
4.8
-1.8%
3.5
-11.1%
36.9
-3.7%
2014
17.1
-2.8%
6.3
-4.8%
4.5
3.6%
4.7
-2.3%
3.7
4.0%
36.2
-1.7%
2015
17.4
1.9%
6.1
-2.6%
4.7
3.6%
5.1
8.4%
4.3
17.5%
37.6
3.8%
2016(f)
18.1
3.9%
6.2
1.8%
4.7
0.5%
5.2
2.7%
4.7
8.7%
38.9
3.5%
2011
6.7
-7.4%
9.0
-3.9%
4.6
4.2%
12.8
2.4%
4.1
0.3%
37.2
-1.1%
2012
6.1
-9.0%
9.6
6.9%
4.9
7.4%
13.5
5.3%
4.2
1.4%
38.3
2.9%
2013
2014
5.1
4.5
-15.7% -13.3%
9.0
8.9
-5.6% -1.7%
5.1
5.6
3.6% 10.1%
13.4
13.3
-0.8% -1.0%
4.2
4.0
0.3%
-4.1%
36.9
36.2
-3.7% -1.7%
2015
4.2
-6.5%
9.4
6.2%
6.1
9.3%
13.8
4.5%
4.0
-0.5%
37.6
3.8%
2016(f)
4.4
4.4%
6.2
-34.1%
4.7
-23.2%
5.2
-62.3%
18.4
359.4%
38.9
3.5%
2011
5.5
4.4%
5.1
4.2%
0.7
-14.0%
8.4
3.6%
19.7
3.2%
2012
5.5
-1.2%
5.4
6.1%
0.7
-1.9%
8.2
-1.5%
19.8
0.5%
2013
5.8
6.1%
5.5
1.2%
0.7
-2.0%
8.7
6.2%
20.7
4.5%
2014
5.8
1.0%
5.4
-2.5%
0.6
-9.8%
9.1
3.7%
20.9
0.9%
2015
6.1
3.7%
5.6
4.4%
0.6
-5.7%
10.0
10.0%
22.2
6.3%
2016(f)
6.4
5.0%
5.7
1.6%
0.6
4.5%
10.4
3.7%
23.0
3.6%
2011
6.5
2.3%
7.2
5.8%
6.0
1.1%
19.7
3.2%
2012
6.5
-0.1%
7.3
2.7%
6.0
-1.3%
19.8
0.5%
2013
6.8
5.3%
7.7
5.0%
6.1
3.1%
20.7
4.5%
2014
6.7
-2.3%
7.8
1.1%
6.4
4.1%
20.9
0.9%
2015
6.9
2.8%
8.4
7.0%
7.0
9.2%
22.2
6.3%
2016(f)
7.1
3.0%
8.6
2.6%
7.4
5.3%
23.0
3.6%
So urce: Oil and Tanker Trades Outlo o k: Clarkso ns Research. (f)=fo recasts.
Crude demand derived fro m crude and DP P trade. P ro ducts demand derived fro m DP P ,
CP P and veg o il trade.
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Average Values,
2006-2015
Softer
Firmer
-30%
+30%
+60%
-60%
-90%
Weak!
+90%
7%
-120%
Strong!
+120%
2006-15
Average
Value
43,583
40,821
90.8
Market
Rate
64,846
48,433
80.0
Spot ($/day)
1 year t/c ($/day)
5 year old ($m)
35,031
30,529
63.3
46,713
35,875
60.0
Spot ($/day)
1 year t/c ($/day)
5 year old ($m)
35,031
22,744
47.4
37,954
26,712
46.0
Spot ($/day)
1 year t/c ($/day)
5 year old ($m)
Clean Products Average
Tanker Average
16,813
17,862
33.6
21,536
17,769
29.0
Ship by Type
VLCC
VLCC Average
Suezmax
Suezmax Average
Aframax
Aframax Average
Clean Products
(30k dwt)
2015
% diff. from
Average
49%
19%
-12%
19%
33%
18%
-5%
15%
8%
17%
-3%
8%
28%
-1%
-14%
5%
13%
2016 YTD
Market % diff. from
Rate
Average
59,417
36%
52,667
29%
76.0
-16%
16%
41,067
17%
37,444
23%
57.0
-10%
10%
30,302
-14%
29,778
31%
40.0
-16%
1%
16,676
-1%
18,194
2%
27.5
-18%
-6%
7%
This Year
-12%
10%
-4%
-2%
-16%
5%
-5%
-5%
-22%
13%
-13%
-7%
-29%
2%
-4%
-10%
-6%
Worse
Better
Bit Worse
Bit Worse
Worse
Bit Better
Bit Worse
Bit Worse
Worse!
Better
Worse
Bit Worse
Worse!
Bit Better
Bit Worse
Worse
Bit Worse
Benchmark
secondhand
prices in the majority of
tanker sectors have generally declined in the year to
date. The price for a 5 year
old
uncoated
Aframax
stood at $40m at the end of
February 2016.
$,000/d
m dwt
Tanker Lay-Up
VLCC 1 Year T/C
Aframax 1 Year T/C
90
80
80
70
60
70
50
60
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Figure 1.4.2
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
15
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Soft
by 5.8% in dwt terms, partly as demolition almost halved y-o-y to 0.8m dwt and deliveries
(8.7m dwt) reached the highest level since
2008. The MR and LR2 fleets expanded particularly rapidly in 2015, by 9% and 10% respectively. Meanwhile, product tanker ordering has
been fairly subdued since 2014. This, as well as
strong delivery levels, led to a decline in the
size of the product tanker orderbook in 2015.
The VLCC Market
Conditions in the VLCC market were very positive in 2015, supported by a tight supplydemand balance. Average VLCC earnings
more than doubled y-o-y to $64,846/day in
2015 and exceeded $100,000/day in December
for the first time since mid-2008. VLCC demand
rose firmly, as the low oil price boosted oil demand and stockbuilding, while fleet growth was
sluggish. Reflecting the strong market conditions, demolition activity was very subdued, with
just two units reported scrapped, while contracting doubled y-o-y to 20.4m dwt.
The Suezmax Market
In 2015, the Suezmax fleet grew 1.9% in dwt
terms, while deadweight demand expanded by
5.0%. Improved refinery margins in Europe, on
the back of the low oil price, boosted intraregional crude trade and shipments to the region from WAF and the Middle East. Suezmax
market fundamentals improved notably, with
average earnings rising 68% y-o-y to $46,713/
day. Ordering remained firm, while demolition
activity has stalled.
The Aframax Market
Average Aframax earnings increased 54% y-o-y
in 2015 to $37,954/day. Following two consecutive years of decline, crude Aframax demand
expanded last year (by 2.2%) on the back of
firm growth in intra-regional trade. Meanwhile,
crude Aframax fleet growth remained very limited. Crude Aframax contracting increased in
2015, with 59 vessels ordered, compared to just
8 and 11 in 2013 and 2014 respectively.
The Products Market
The products market performed strongly in
2015, with earnings firming across all size sec-
16
2013
190.2
1.6%
76.2
4.9%
96.9
-0.7%
29.9
0.4%
107.7
2.6%
500.8
1.8%
Year End
2014
194.2
2.1%
76.0
-0.3%
96.0
-0.9%
29.8
-0.3%
111.7
3.8%
507.8
1.4%
2015
200.3
3.1%
77.4
1.9%
99.0
3.1%
29.4
-1.3%
118.3
5.9%
524.3
3.3%
Forecast
2016
2017
213.4 224.1
6.6%
5.0%
80.8
86.7
4.5%
7.2%
103.0 108.0
6.6%
4.9%
30.2
31.2
2.5%
3.4%
123.7 127.0
4.6%
2.7%
551.0 576.8
5.1%
4.7%
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
$'000/d
300
50
Aframax One Yr
T/C Rate
45
250
10%
y-o-y change
Crude Oil
Oil Products
8%
40
6%
35
MR One Yr
T/C Rate
200
30
150
25
20
100
4%
2%
0%
15
-2%
10
Figure 1.4.3
70%
100
2016(f)
2015
2014
2013
m dwt
year to date
90
60%
500
Contracting
80
Product
tanker
orderbook as
% of the fleet
400
2012
450
2011
Figure 1.4.4
550
2010
600
2009
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
-6%
2008
-4%
2007
2006
50
50%
70
Deliveries
60
350
40%
50
300
30%
250
200
20%
150
Scrapping
40
30
20
Figure 1.4.5
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
0
2002
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
0%
1995
10
2000
50
10%
1998
Crude tanker
orderbook as
% of the fleet
1996
100
Figure 1.4.6
17
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Bulkcarrier market conditions came under renewed severe pressure in 2015, reflecting the
impact of a considerable slowdown in seaborne
dry bulk trade and existing oversupply pressures. Average bulkcarrier earnings declined
28% y-o-y to $7,123/day in 2015, the lowest
level since 1999, and have slumped even further in 2016 so far. Asset prices have decreased significantly, and pressure on bulkcarrier owners has been severe. Against this backdrop of extremely challenging market conditions, bulker demolition surged last year, helping to limit overall fleet growth to the slowest
pace in fifteen years. Meanwhile, newbuild contracting activity was very subdued in 2015 and
fell to the lowest level since 2001, and the orderbook declined by almost 30% in terms of
tonnage over the course of the year. Idling and
lay-up of bulkcarrier tonnage has also increased significantly in recent months.
Bulkcarrier Demand
2015 saw a significant shift in bulkcarrier demand, with seaborne dry bulk trade estimated
to have declined marginally to total 4.7bn
tonnes, following average growth of around 7%
p.a. in the preceding five year period. Chinese
dry bulk imports have been a key driver of the
overall expansion in dry bulk trade in recent
years. In 2010-14, growth in dry bulk imports
into China accounted for more than 50% of the
expansion in global seaborne dry bulk trade.
However, Chinese dry bulk imports fell by 3% in
2015, partly reflecting the maturing of the Chinese economy. Weakness in Chinas construction industry and property sector contributed to
a 2% decline in the countrys steel output, limiting growth in seaborne iron ore imports to 2% in
2015, following expansion of 15% in 2014.
Meanwhile, global seaborne coal trade declined
for the first time in almost three decades to total
1.1bn tonnes in 2015, reflecting the impact of
weak coal demand and coal quality restrictions
in China, as well as expanding domestic coal
production in India. Meanwhile, growth in minor
bulk trade softened to 0.7%, following average
annual growth of 5.3% in 2010-14.
Bulkcarrier Supply
The bulkcarrier fleet expanded 2.4% in dwt
terms in 2015, which was the slowest pace of
18
2015(e)
939.7
2.8%
249.8
0.1%
112.1
-3.2%
63.0
6.4%
1,364.6
2.0%
2016(f)
921.6
-1.9%
249.4
-0.2%
106.3
-5.2%
67.0
6.2%
1,344.2
-1.5%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(e)
437.8
493.7
579.0
717.0
766.9
9.0%
12.8%
17.3% 23.8%
7.0%
Brazil
326.3
322.4
320.4
337.7
362.0
6.5%
-1.2%
-0.6%
5.4%
7.2%
Other
288.5
294.1
290.2
283.7
235.8
1.9%
1.9%
-1.3%
-2.2%
-16.9%
TOTAL
1,052.7 1,110.2 1,189.6 1,338.3 1,364.6
6.2%
5.5%
7.2%
12.5%
2.0%
Coking Coal Imports
(mt)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(e)
India
32.6
35.2
35.0
43.8
49.2
-6.1%
8.0%
-0.4%
25.1%
12.2%
China
24.6
34.6
60.0
47.7
35.5
-23.6%
40.4%
73.6% -20.5% -25.4%
EU 27
46.3
44.9
44.2
45.0
44.0
2.2%
-3.2%
-1.4%
1.7%
-2.3%
Others
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7
5.1
-8.0%
1.9%
-1.8%
-2.3%
8.4%
TOTAL
224.4
233.7
264.4
262.1
252.0
-5.0%
4.2%
13.2%
-0.9%
-3.9%
Coking Coal Exports
(mt)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(e)
Australia
117.1
124.2
145.7
150.9
153.7
-17.9%
6.1%
17.3%
3.6%
1.9%
USA
59.3
59.0
56.4
53.2
39.7
24.1%
-0.5%
-4.5%
-5.5%
-25.4%
Other
48.0
50.5
62.4
58.0
58.6
4.8%
5.2%
23.5%
-7.1%
1.0%
TOTAL
224.4
233.7
264.4
262.1
252.0
-5.0%
4.2%
13.2%
-0.9%
-3.9%
Steam Coal Imports
(mt)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(e)
India
94.6
122.9
140.3
172.1
162.1
26.8%
29.8%
14.2% 22.7%
-5.8%
China
141.0
194.1
204.9
191.4
128.3
29.2%
37.6%
5.6%
-6.6%
-33.0%
Other Asia
337.6
347.5
354.4
363.7
373.0
2.9%
2.0%
2.6%
2.6%
4.2%
EU 27
128.9
147.6
138.9
136.7
127.7
19.0%
14.5%
-5.9%
-1.6%
-6.6%
Other
73.6
77.4
76.3
86.5
91.6
1.5%
5.3%
-1.5%
13.3%
6.0%
TOTAL
775.8
889.5
914.9
950.4
882.7
11.8%
14.7%
2.9%
3.9%
-7.1%
Steam Coal Exports
(mt)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(e)
Indonesia
350.6
381.8
415.5
408.2
355.6
18.4%
8.9%
8.8%
-1.8%
-12.9%
Australia
154.8
184.2
199.2
224.2
224.5
3.4%
19.0%
8.1%
12.6%
0.1%
Others
270.3
323.5
300.2
318.0
302.6
8.9%
19.7%
-7.2%
5.9%
-4.8%
TOTAL
775.8
889.5
914.9
950.4
882.7
11.8%
14.7%
2.9%
3.9%
-7.1%
Grain and Minor Bulk Trade
(mt)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(e)
Wheat&Coarse Grain
254.5
279.0
286.8
315.1
319.1
3.5%
9.6%
2.8%
9.9%
1.3%
Soybean
90.7
95.9
104.8
116.6
127.7
-6.8%
5.7%
9.2%
11.3%
9.4%
Minor Bulk*
1588.6 1624.1 1720.7 1711.4 1740.8
7.9%
2.2%
5.9%
-0.5%
1.7%
TOTAL DRY BULK 3,986.6 4,232.4 4,481.1 4,694.0 4,687.0
6.7%
6.2%
5.9%
4.8%
-0.1%
*Minor bulk total includes phosphate rock and bauxite/alumina
(f)=forecasts
Source: Dry Bulk Trade Outlook: Clarksons Research
2016(f)
803.4
4.8%
358.5
-1.0%
182.3
-22.7%
1,344.2
-1.5%
Other Asia
EU 27
Others
TOTAL
2011
665.4
10.4%
222.4
1.9%
112.6
-3.2%
52.3
-3.9%
1,052.7
6.2%
2012
723.5
8.7%
225.9
1.6%
107.2
-4.8%
53.6
2.5%
1,110.2
5.5%
2013
2014
794.9
913.8
9.9%
15.0%
229.2
249.5
1.5%
8.9%
112.2
115.8
4.7%
3.2%
53.2
59.2
-0.8%
11.4%
1,189.6 1,338.3
7.2%
12.5%
2016(f)
51.9
5.4%
32.7
-8.0%
42.1
-4.2%
5.2
2.7%
250.2
-0.7%
2016(f)
155.6
1.2%
36.9
-7.0%
57.7
-1.6%
250.2
-0.7%
2016(f)
157.1
-3.1%
118.0
-8.0%
388.7
4.2%
120.9
-5.3%
94.8
3.5%
879.6
-0.4%
2016(f)
346.7
-2.5%
231.2
3.0%
301.7
-0.3%
879.6
-0.4%
2016(f)
325.9
2.1%
134.0
4.9%
1768.2
1.6%
4,702.0
0.3%
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Average Values,
2006-2015
Softer
Firmer
-30%
+30%
-60%
+60%
-90%
Weak!
Strong!
+90%
-75%
-120%
+120%
Secondhand
Market
Rate
Indicator
Spot ($/day)
1 year t/c ($/day)
5 year old ($m.)
Capesize Average
Panamax
Spot ($/day)
(75k dwt)
1 year t/c ($/day)
5 year old ($m.)
Panamax Average
Supramax
Trip ($/day)
1 year t/c ($/day)
(52k dwt)
5 year old ($m.)
Supramax Average
Dry Bulk Average
2006-15
Average
Value
40,623
40,797
60.3
Market
Rate
9,060
10,049
25.0
19,340
22,685
36.2
7,335
7,492
14.0
19,835
20,191
32.0
6,578
7,620
13.5
2015
% diff. from
Average
-78%
-75%
-59%
-71%
-62%
-67%
-61%
-63%
-67%
-62%
-58%
-62%
-65%
2016 YTD
Market % diff. from
Rate
Average
3,262
-92%
5,331
-87%
23.8
-61%
-80%
4,916
-75%
5,108
-77%
13.0
-64%
-72%
3,356
-83%
4,667
-77%
12.0
-62%
-74%
-75%
This Year
-14%
-12%
-2%
-9%
-13%
-11%
-3%
-9%
-16%
-15%
-5%
-12%
-10%
Worse
Worse
Bit Worse
Bit Worse
Worse
Worse
Bit Worse
Bit Worse
Worse
Worse
Bit Worse
Worse
Bit Worse
prices fell
declined in all sectors during 2015 and have continued to fall in the year to
date, reflecting weak market
sentiment.
The
secondhand price for a 5
year old Capesize stood at
$23.8m at the end of February 2016, down 39%
y-o-y.
Overall, the dry bulk market is 75% below the longterm historical trend.
$,000/d
m dwt
70
Bulkcarrier Lay-Up
160
60
140
50
120
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Figure 1.5.2
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
19
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Soft
20
Year End
Forecast
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Capesize
280.0
293.9
308.2
309.4
309.7
308.3
12.0%
5.0%
4.9%
0.4%
0.1%
-0.4%
Panamax
Handymax
Handysize
Total Fleet
2017
169.2
184.2
192.3
195.2
196.6
198.5
12.0%
8.9%
4.4%
1.5%
0.7%
1.0%
147.4
158.3
166.6
179.4
189.7
195.8
12.2%
7.4%
5.2%
7.7%
5.7%
3.2%
90.1
89.5
90.6
91.9
91.8
90.9
1.6%
-0.7%
1.3%
1.5%
-0.1% -1.0%
686.7
726.0
757.7
775.8
787.8
793.5
10.6%
5.7%
4.4%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
100
$ million
$ ,000/d
80
72
90
80
64
5 Year Old
Panamax
70
56
60
48
50
40
15 Year Old
Panamax
5,500
mt
y-o-y growth
18%
Iron Ore
Coal
Grain
Minor Bulk
Dry Bulk Trade Growth
5,000
4,500
16%
14%
4,000
12%
3,500
10%
3,000
8%
2,500
6%
16
1,000
0%
10
500
-2%
-4%
Jan-16
Jan-14
Jan-12
Jan-10
Jan-08
Jan-06
Jan-02
Jan-00
Jan-98
Jan-96
Jan-94
Jan-92
Jan-04
Figure 1.5.4
Figure 1.5.3
90%
180
80%
160
70%
140
60%
120
500
50%
100
400
40%
80
300
30%
60
200
20%
40
100
10%
20
0%
900
700
600
m dwt
year to date
2016/17 = Forecasts.
Handysize
Handymax
Panamax
Capesize
800
2016(f)
20
2014
2%
2012
1,500
2010
24
2008
30
2006
4%
2004
2,000
2002
32
2000
40
Orderbook as
% of Fleet
Contracting
Deliveries
Figure 1.5.5
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
Scrapping
Figure 1.5.6
21
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Container Fleet
('000 TEU)
2013
4,083
-2.5%
7,443
1.1%
3,555
13.8%
2,058
30.5%
2,219
-0.4%
19,357
4.8%
Year End
Forecast
2014
2015
2016
2017
4,009 4,015 4,009 3,992
-1.8% 0.1% -0.1% -0.4%
7,453 7,468 7,254 7,008
0.1%
0.2% -2.9% -3.4%
4,096 4,797 5,284 5,570
15.2% 17.1% 10.2% 5.4%
2,695 3,457 3,965 4,724
30.9% 28.3% 14.7% 19.2%
2,189 2,184 2,159 2,117
-1.3% -0.2% -1.2% -1.9%
20,443 21,921 22,671 23,411
5.6%
7.2%
3.4% 3.3%
Over the last six months, the containership market has come under renewed pressure, partly
as a result of slower growth in seaborne box
trade. Boxship charter earnings were volatile in
2015, and improved in the first half of the year,
having remained at historically weak levels for
some time. However, these gains were relinquished in the second half of the year. Earnings
have remained at historically low levels into early 2016, with the Panamax one year charter
rate standing at $5,800/day in February 2016,
down from over $15,000/day in mid-2015. While
the slowdown in a key part of the cascade
trend, and limited supply growth in the small
and medium sized boxship fleets had supported
improved earnings in early 2015, the cumulative
impact of slower growth in seaborne container
trade took its toll on the market as the year
went on. Reduced vessel demand also contributed to an increase in the level of idle capacity,
to more than 8% of the fleet by early March
2016, the highest level in six years. Meanwhile,
the box freight market remained highly volatile
and subject to severe downward pressure in
2015 and into early 2016, significantly impacting liner company performance. Freight rates
have declined to near-record lows on several
occasions since mid-2015, as liner companies
continue to struggle to manage the impact of
robust deliveries of very large containerships.
Small
(<3,000 TEU)
Intermediate
(3-8,000 TEU)
Deep Sea
(8-12,000 TEU)
Large
(12,000 TEU +)
Other Container Capable vessels
Containership Demand
Containership Outlook
Containership Supply
At the start of March 2016, the containership
fleet numbered 5,230 ships of 19.8m TEU. Con-
22
Total Container
Fleet ('000 TEU)
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Following improvements in
Firm
Soft
Softer
Firmer
-30%
+30%
-60%
+60%
-90%
Weak!
+90%
-48%
-120%
Strong!
+120%
Market
Rate
Indicator
1 year t/c ($/day)
10 year old ($m.)
2006-15
Average
Value
7,846
10.2
Market
Rate
8,220
6.0
9,904
14.8
10,825
8.5
10,592
16.7
11,339
8.5
13,042
22.1
13,544
11.0
18,222
21.2
15,660
12.0
Ship by Type
2015
% diff. from
Average
5%
-41%
-18%
9%
-43%
-17%
7%
-49%
-21%
4%
-50%
-23%
-14%
-43%
-29%
-22%
2016 YTD
Market % diff. from
Rate
Average
6,475
-17%
4.8
-53%
-35%
7,000
-29%
7.0
-53%
-41%
6,650
-37%
7.0
-58%
-48%
6,000
-54%
9.0
-59%
-57%
5,875
-68%
9.5
-55%
-61%
-48%
This Year
-22%
-12%
-17%
-39%
-10%
-24%
-44%
-9%
-27%
-58%
-9%
-33%
-54%
-12%
-33%
-27%
Worse!
Worse
Worse
Worse!!
Worse
Worse!
Worse!!
Bit Worse
Worse!
Worse!!
Bit Worse
Worse!!
Worse!!
Worse
Worse!!
Worse!
60
3,500
'000 TEU
year to date
55
50
Contracting
45
2,500
40
Deliveries
35
2,000
30
25
1,500
20
Scrapping
15
1,000
10
5
500
Figure 1.6.2
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
Jan-16
Jan-14
Jan-12
Jan-10
Jan-08
Jan-06
Jan-04
Jan-02
Jan-00
Jan-98
Jan-96
Figure 1.6.3
23
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Average Values,
2006-2015
Reefer Sector
Outside of the three major volume sectors, market performance has also been mixed over the
last six months. For more details on each of the
following markets, see Section 2.
MPP Sector
The MPP market has come under considerable
pressure in recent years. The sector has continued to face competition from the containership
and bulkcarrier fleets, two sectors with sizeable
levels of surplus capacity. Shipments of project
cargoes have also reportedly weakened, owing
to reduced investment in energy and offshore
projects. The guideline one year charter rate for
a 21,000 dwt MPP stood at $9,500/day at the
end of February 2016, down 5% y-o-y.
24
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
180
$,000/day
18
LNG Carrier
160,000 cbm
Spot Rate
160
16
VLGC Timecharter
Equivalent Earnings
140
14
20
0
Jan-16
Jul-11
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
40
Jul-15
Jan-15
60
Jul-14
Jan-14
80
Jul-13
10
Jan-13
100
Jul-12
12
Jan-12
120
Jan-11
$000/day
Figure 1.7.1
$000/day
Figure 1.7.2
000/day
3,500-4,000 lm Ro-Ro
2,000-2,500 lm Ro-Ro
2,000-2,500 lm Ro-Pax
50
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
10
6,500 ceu PCTC
4,500 ceu PCTC
Figure 1.7.3
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15
Feb-15
May-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
Feb-14
May-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
Feb-13
May-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Source: Clarksons Research
May-12
Figure 1.7.4
25
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
26
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Ordering Trends
6,000
Other
Offshore
Gas Carriers
Containerships
Bulkers
Tankers
180
120
5,000
Average no. of
annual contracts in
2007-15
4,000
Shipbuilding Deliveries by
Builder Country
m dwt
China
South Korea
Japan
Other Asia
Europe
Other
160
140
3,000
80
2,000
60
40
1,000
20
Figure 1.8.1
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
Figure 1.8.2
1996
1994
1992
1990
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Index
175
500
150
400
125
300
Figure 1.8.3
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Jan-16
Jan-14
Jan-12
Jan-10
Jan-08
Jan-06
50
Jan-04
Jan-00
75
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
100
Jan-02
100
200
Figure 1.8.4
27
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Shipbuilding Contracts
No.
120
28
100
80
60
40
20
0
<=1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
65
Tankers
Bulkcarriers
Gas Carriers
Containerships
Other
60
55
50
55
50
45
45
40
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
China
Other
60
Figure 1.9.1
2016
Figure 1.9.2
Scrap Prices
m dwt
Tankers
4.0
2014
Demolition Trends
4.5
2012
2016
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
10
1996
10
2014
15
2012
15
2010
20
2008
20
2006
25
2004
25
2002
30
2000
30
1998
35
1996
35
2000
40
1998
65
Demolition by Country
m dwt
Bulkers
3-month
moving
average
600
$/ldt
550
3.5
500
3.0
450
400
2.5
350
2.0
300
1.5
250
1.0
200
Figure 1.9.3
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
100
Jul-13
0.0
Jan-13
150
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
0.5
Figure 1.9.4
29
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
30
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Financial Markets
140
$bn
No
Follow On**
IPO
Bond (RHS)
100
90
120
$m
IPO
Follow On
Bond
No
2014 2015
1,637 825
8,466 4,130
9,483 6,982
80
100
100
80
70
60
80
60
Includes OTC.
2016* = year to date.
50
40
60
40
30
40
20
20
10
20
Figure 1.10.1
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Figure 1.10.2
2016*
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2009
2008
% y-o-y growth
200
20%
300
% y-o-y growth
6%
250
5%
15%
200
150
10%
100
5%
4%
Points show fleet
growth in GT in
2015 (RHS)
150
3%
2%
100
1%
50
50
7%
0%
0%
0
Figure 1.10.3
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Korean Register
Bureau Veritas
Lloyd's Register
American Bureau
Japan
Greece
China P.R.
Bahamas
Malta
Singapore
Hong Kong
Marshall Is.
Liberia
Panama
DNV GL
-5%
-1%
Figure 1.10.4
31
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
7
8
10
12
14
18
22
24
26
28
30
35
36
38
40
42
46
48
54
57
58
64
69
70
72
74
76
79
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
99
107
108
112
116
119
124
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
129
129
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
Table 6
Table 7
130
131
132
133
133
134
134
135
135
136
136
137
137
138
138
139
139
140
140
141
141
142
142
143
143
143
143
144
144
145
145
146
146
147
147
148
148
149
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
156
156
157
158
158
159
159
160
160
161
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
CONTENTS
Table 59
Table 60
Table 61
Table 62
Table 63
Table 64
Table 65
Table 66
Table 67
Table 68
Table 69
Table 70
161
162
162
163
163
164
164
164
164
165
165
165
166
166
167
167
168
168
169
169
170
170
171
171
172
172
173
173
174
174
175
176
177
178
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
188
188
Cruise Industry
Once again, our cruise industry chapter was written by Bill
Ebersold, former Director of Statistics and Economic Analysis
for the U.S. Maritime Administration, and currently a consultant
and writer on the cruise industry.
Data Validity
Please note that the cut-off date for fleet and commercial data
in this report is 1st March 2016.
Disclaimer
The material and the information (including, without limitation,
any future rates) contained herein (together, the "Information")
are provided by Clarkson Research Services Limited
("Clarksons Research") for general information purposes. The
Information is drawn from Clarksons Research's database and
other sources. Clarksons Research advises that: (i) any Information extracted from Clarksons Research's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted from the databases of other maritime data
collection agencies may differ from the Information extracted
from Clarksons Researchs database; (iii ) whilst Clarksons
Research has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the
Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data
compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iv) the provision of
the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate
further enquiries; (v) the provision of the Information is not an
endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons Research and its 'connected persons', and
is not intended to recommend any decision by the recipient;
(vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it may not be accurate. The Information is
provided on "as is" and as available basis. Clarksons Research and its connected persons make no representations or
warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect
to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is
therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk.
This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use
of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part of the Information may be disclosed to, or used or relied upon by, any
other person or used for any other purpose without the prior
written consent of Clarksons Research. Especially, the information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of
raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual
property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Research, its
connected persons and/or its licensors.
To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons Research and its
connected persons shall not be liable to the recipient or any
third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense
including without limitation, direct, indirect, consequential loss
or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption
in business, loss of goodwill, loss of data arising out of, or in
connection with, the use of and the reliance on the Information
whether in contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable.
These exclusions do not apply to (i) death or personal injury
caused by the negligence of Clarksons Research and its
connected persons or (ii) the liability of Clarksons Research
and its connected persons for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation. In this disclaimer 'connected persons' means, in
relation to Clarksons Research, its ultimate holding company,
subsidiaries and subsidiary undertakings of its ultimate holding
company and the respective shareholders, directors, officers,
employees and agents of each of them. This disclaimer shall
be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.
Clarksons Research
Spring 2016
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
Licenced to Mr. Panca Yudha Kurniawan of CNOOC SES Ltd.. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. Shipping Review Outlook Spring 2016.
CONTENTS