STAT171 Statistical Data Analysis

2015 Mid Semester Test for reference in 2016

Summary of questions
Q1, 2, 4(a) and 7 were contained in Assignment One, 2016
Q3, 4(b), 5, and 6 were General discrete (not covered in time for inclusion in Assignment One

Question 1 [14 marks]

Some points of interest for show canaries:
16% of canaries have a black band above their eyes and 84% dont;
23% of canaries have toes of equal length, and 77% dont; and
65% have neither.
(a)

Formally define sensible event notation, and summarise the event and probability information
in the question.

(b)

List the elements in the sample space using formal notation.

(c)

What is the probability that a canary has both a black band and toes of equal length?

(d)

Are the two events of a canary having a black band above its eyes and having toes of equal
length statistically independent? Briefly explain why or why not.

Check answers:
(a) Let B = {canary has a black band} , L={canary has toes of equal length} , P(B)=0.16 , P(L)=0.23
, P(B L) = 0.65

(b) S = B L, B L , B L, B L

(c) 0.04 (d) NOT indep as P(BL) P(B)P(L) etc.

Question 2 [14 marks]

At a local show, there are three breeders who regularly show their canaries. Some canaries have
a striped tail, but the proportions vary by breeder.
61% of canaries bred by Greg have a striped tail;
52% of canaries bred by Erin have a striped tail;
43% of canaries bred by Jarod have a striped tail.
At this years show:
Gregs canaries constitute one-half of the number shown;
Erins canaries constitute one-third of the number shown; and
Jarods canaries constitute one-sixth of the number shown.
The winner of best canary in show is announced as one with a striped tail. What is the probability
the winning canary was shown by Erin?
Give your answer as an exact fraction or a decimal to 4 significant figures.
Check answer: 52/165 0.3152

Question 3 [14 marks]

Canaries are transported to shows in small cages, which have a maximum
capacity of four birds per cage. The long term probabilities for X = the number of
canaries per cage arriving at a show are:
x
P(X=x)

1
0.05

2
0.32

3
0.16

4
0.47

(a)

What is the expected number of canaries per cage arriving at the show?

(b)

What is the standard deviation of the number of canaries per cage arriving at the show?

(c)

What is the median of the number of number of canaries per cage arriving at the show?

(d)

Each transport cage is worth $85, and each show canary is valued at $100.
(i)

Write the linear equation for T (the total value in $ of the cage and the canaries inside)
as a function of X (the number of canaries per cage).

(ii)

What is the average value of a cage and canaries inside?

(iii)

What is the standard deviation of the value of a cage and canaries inside?

Check answers: (a) 3.05 (b) 0.9937 (c) 3 (d)(i) T = 85 + 100 * X (ii) 390 (iii) 99.37

Question 4 [14 marks]

(a)

Judge Amy rated a sample of 23 canaries.

Her scores are presented in the stem-and-leaf plot.
The mean is  = 8.67 and standard deviation sx = 2.134.
When individual judges deliver their scores to be compiled,
they must be linearly scaled to have an average of 8 and a
standard deviation of 2.
Obtain the linear function which will give a mean of 8 and a
standard deviation of 2 to Amys transformed scores. Give the
coefficients as exact fractions or to at least 4 significant figures.

(b)

Stem-and-leaf of Amy
N = 23
Leaf Unit = 0.10
1
1
1
4
6
(7)
10
4
3
1
1

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

055
05
0555555
055555
5
00
0

A fun part of the show is the awarding of three prizes for those canaries owned by children
judged to be the best whistlers. Exactly two children entered their canaries for this
competition. Zoe entered six canaries, and Brett entered five canaries. If the prizes are
awarded at random, evaluate the following (give exact fractions or 4 significant figures for all
answers):
(i)

What is the probability that Zoe wins one prize, and Brett wins two prizes?

(ii)

What is the number of prizes Zoe can expect to win?

(ii)

What is the standard deviation of the number of prizes winnable by Zoe?

Check answers: (a) Y = -0.1256 + 0.9372*X (b)(i) 4/11 (ii) 18/11 (iii)
0.77139
2

Question 5 [14 marks]

Sometimes canaries need to see a veterinarian. Canary visits to a particular vet occur at a rate of
1.2 per week. Give all probabilities to at least four significant figures.
figu
(a)

What is an appropriate model for the number of canary visits to this vet? (distribution and
parameter value).

(b)

What extra assumption are you making to be able to use this model? Be explicit in your
answer.

(c)

In one week,, what is the probability of exactly two canary visits?

(d)

In four different weeks, what is the probability of exactly two canary

anary visits each week?
week

(e)

In evaluating the answer to part (d),

(d why is it essential that the weeks be different?
different

(f)

In a four week period, what is the probability of exactly eight canary

anary visits?
visits

(g)

Explain briefly why the probabilities in parts (d) and (f) are so different.
different In particular, explain
why one is larger than the other.

Check answers:
(a) Poisson
= 1.2 per week
(b) canary visits to the vet are occurring randomly (or ... independent of each other)
(c) 0.2169
(d) 0.002217
(e) the counts in the four weeks must be independent ... this will not be the case if the weeks are
not different
(f) 0.05752
(g) The event {exactly 2 canary visits in each of four weeks} is a subset of the event {exactly eight
canary visits total four week period}

Question 6 [14 marks]

16%
6% of canaries have a black band above their eyes, and 84% do not.
For all numeric answers, give at least 4 significant
sig
figures.
(a)

What is the probability that in a show with 17 canaries, there are 3 with black bands?

(b)

What is the probability a judge has to inspect exactly 11 canaries until the fourth one with a
black band is encountered?

(c)

Sometimes, a genetic mutation gives rise to a green canary ... this occurs at a
rate of 2.133 per million canaries. Once per year, a large prize is awarded to
the owner of a green canary if there is more than one winner, the prize is
shared. This year, it is estimated that in the entire country there are 4.25 million
captive canaries. What is the probability the prize is shared (that is, there are at
least two green canaries) this year?

Check answers: (a) 0.2425 (b) 0.02321 (c) 0.998836

Question 7 [16 marks]

A breeding room has three cages each with a specific male and female canary paired as shown in
the following diagram:
Cage 1
Cage 2
Cage 3
M1 F1
M2 F2
M3 F3
A new assistant accidentally leaves all three cage doors open, allowing all six canaries to all fly out
into the room. The assistant catches the birds and puts them back two to a cage.
Define events:
A = {all six canaries are placed back in their correct cages}.
B = {the canaries are correctly paired, but not necessarily placed back in their correct cages}.
C = {each cage contains exactly one male and one female canary}
All probabilities are to be given as an exact fraction.
Answer parts (a), (b) and (c) if the canaries are returned to the cages totally at random.
(a)

What is P(A)?

(b)

What is P(B)?

(c)

What is P(C)?

Answer parts (d), (e) and (f) if the assistant can tell male and female canaries apart, and puts
them back with a male and female in each cage.
(d)

What is P(C)?

(e)

What is P(B)?

(f)

What is P(A)?

(g)

State the statistical relation between events A and C.

Check answers: (a) 1/90 (b) 1/15 (c) 2/5 (d) 1 (e) 1/6 (g) A C