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Final Report - January 2015

Global Talent Trends and Issues


for the Travel & Tourism Sector

January - 2015

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Global Talent Trends and Issues


for the Travel & Tourism Sector

A report prepared by Oxford Economics for the World Travel & Tourism Council

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Contents

Final Report - January 2015

Foreword

Introduction

Human capital issues in context

12

Talent demand-supply balance and


enabling environment analysis

26

Economic cost impact of talent


gaps and deficiencies

45

Annex A

51

Annex B

52

Annex C

60

Annex D

62

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Foreword
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is the global authority
on the economic and social contribution of Travel & Tourism.
It promotes sustainable growth for the sector, working with
governments and international institutions to create jobs, to drive
exports and to generate prosperity.

At a global level, the research shows that the industry is facing a


shortfall of 14 million jobs that is equivalent to the population of
Cambodia and stands to reduce its contribution to global GDP
by US$ 610 billion over the next ten years, 5.8% less than our
baseline forecasts.

Members are the Chairs, Presidents and Chief Executives of the


worlds leading, private sector Travel & Tourism businesses. These
Members bring specialist knowledge to guide government policy
and decision-making, raising awareness of the importance of the
sector as an economic generator of wealth.

This research also shows that Travel & Tourisms Human Capital
challenges are significantly higher than those faced in other
sectors, with 37 out of 46 countries showing a talent deficit or
shortage in Travel & Tourism over the next ten years, compared
with only 6 out of 46 for the economy as a whole.

Over the next ten years, WTTCs forecasts project that


Travel & Tourism will contribute US$11 trillion (US$3.4 trillion
directly) and support 347 million jobs around the world (126
million directly over 25 million more direct jobs than in 2013). The
growth in Travel & Tourism employment, at over 4% per year for
the next ten years, will bring about enormous development across
the world. Our research shows however, that without the right
policies in place now, some countries are likely to have large gaps
that will make it difficult, if not impossible, for them to fulfil their
growth potential.

The situation is more pressing at the lower educational attainment


levels, i.e. unskilled labour, and the impacts will hit in the next five
years. This is a problem which needs to be addressed now.

WTTC is pleased to produce this report on Global Talent Trends


and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector that for the first time,
quantifies the scale of the Travel & Tourism talent problem. It highlights
the economic impact that the HR challenge will have on the global
economy if not addressed soon. It looks at the scale of the problem
(the talent deficit) in 46 countries and then assesses how well
placed these countries are (the enabling environment) to address
the challenges they face. A combined ranking of the talent deficit
and enabling environment highlights those countries where Travel &
Tourism is most at risk from human capital issues over the next five to
ten years, and those which will likely be able to manage future growth.

WTTC urges the industry both public and private sector to act
now to address the anticipated talent shortage. Travel & Tourism
has the power to create jobs across the economy - at different skills
levels, for often marginalised sectors of society such as young
people and women, and in areas where other opportunities are
scarce. We are a people industry we depend on quality people
to deliver a quality product and we need the right policies,
programmes and partnerships in place to ensure that the workforce
of the future knows about the opportunities in our sector, and has
the appropriate skills and knowledge to support future growth.
In the years to come, progress in developing and retaining talent will
require a much stronger and more co-ordinated effort between the
private sector, educational establishments and government. WTTC
and its Members will be at the forefront of this debate, discussion
and action to ensure the continued strength of Travel & Tourism.

David Scowsill
President & CEO
World Travel & Tourism Council

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Introduction

The rapid pace and extent of change in global and national markets for talent will
be significant across the economy as a whole and specifically for Travel & Tourism.
The market for Travel & Tourism talent is already challenged with high staff turnover,
competition with other industry sectors for the best people, and in some cases,
adverse supply trends such as declining demographics. New regulations, new
technology (which in some cases is squeezing out existing roles and creating demand
for new roles), shifts in customer service preferences, changing visitor markets, as
well as other industry drivers, all have the potential to transform the type of skills that
employees in Travel & Tourism will need to possess in future and employers will need to
train staff in.
Planning for and meeting future talent demand in Travel & Tourism is going to require
companies and governments to implement and promote proactive and careful talent
supply management policies and together with education, develop stronger and more
coordinated talent efforts. A thriving Travel & Tourism sector will also require regular
monitoring and projecting of talent demand, supply and imbalances to predict in
advance any looming shortages.
Although there are many talent commonalities facing the Travel & Tourism globally,
the talent environment is far from uniform across countries for demand, supply and
imbalances, and the enabling talent environment. There is huge diversity across
countries in terms of the general development and maturity of Travel & Tourism and the
stage they are at in the sectors growth cycle. So an understanding of the talent picture
for different countries is vital as a one-size fits all analytical picture and policy response
will be incorrect and ineffective. Understanding the sectors outlook and issues will be
crucial if Travel & Tourism is to realise its growth potential over the next decade.

Travel & Tourism is one of the worlds largest economic sectors. Current global
Travel & Tourism direct employment is over 100 million jobs (103 million jobs, 2014
forecast estimate1). Global Travel & Tourism direct employment is forecast to grow
at a faster pace (2.0% pa) than most other major industries and the global economy
employment average2. This is a result of a number of factors including the ongoing
structural transformation from industry to services in advanced and emerging
economies and the growth of the middle class globally resulting in changing consumer
patterns favourable to Travel & Tourism. In fact, many countries have even more
aspirational growth targets than assumed in the WTTC baseline scenario which would
require Travel & Tourism direct employment to grow even faster. For some of these
countries, given the analysis in this report, these aspirations will be very difficult to
realise given the projected talent trend deficits.

Source: WTTC annual economic impact research, March 2014


2
Source: WTTC annual economic impact research, March 2014
1

It is against this backdrop that WTTC commissioned Oxford Economics, one of the
worlds leading providers of global economic analysis, advice and models, to conduct this
research on 46 countries. The countries are geographically diverse, encompass all of the
worlds major economies and include countries such as Barbados, Morocco and Thailand
where Travel & Tourism is a particularly important sector. The 46 countries account for
81% and 88% of direct world Travel & Tourism employment and GDP respectively.

In the long-run economy-wide growth projections are constrained by the economys long-run potential output, which depends, among other
factors, on the long-run labour supply. Although sector-level demand projections are less directly constrained by overall labour supply on the
general assumption that demand for labour will be met from within the wider economy labour pool.

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1.1

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Why talent matters: Negative impacts of


Travel & Tourism talent gaps and deficiencies

The projections for Travel & Tourism direct employment from WTTCs annual
economic impact research are based on top-down macroeconomic domestic
and international demand projections, linked to Oxford Economics Global
Macroeconomic Model3 and Tourism Economics Tourism Decision Metrics Model.
These demand-orientated growth projections for Travel & Tourism employment,
however, implicitly depend on a sufficient volume, availability and quality of talent
supply, which can be retained within the sector. If this is not the case, countries will
struggle to realise these growth projections.

In practice and over the long-run, there is no guarantee that each countrys
Travel & Tourism demand for talent will be met by its domestic supply (and external
supply). Nor is it guaranteed that a countrys Travel & Tourism talent base will be
compatible with the level of competitiveness needed to compete internationally
and achieve the projected international demand growth.

Talent labour shortages, where many hard-to-fill vacancies go permanently


unfilled, lead to below-potential employment levels and growth in the near-term
and foregone investment and growth in the longer-term.

Talent vacancies, which in many cases may only be met by raising pay
levels substantially and attracting staff from other sectors, lead to higher
company operating costs and reduced profits in the short-term, and eroded
competitiveness and weaker growth and investment in the longer-term. An
alternative solution to filling these vacancies could be promotion of staff within the
sector before they are ready to proficiently fill these roles. The impacts of this are
different but again tend to be negative.

Talent skill gaps amongst existing employees, where positions are filled by
under-qualified and under-experienced staff, lead to inferior customer service and
quality standards, and create a host of other HR challenges.

Talent gaps, where migrant labour has to substitute for a shortage of


indigenous labour (in volume and quality terms), can affect the authenticity of
a countrys Travel & Tourism offer and its long-term brand, competitiveness
and international image.

The sectors often transient labour can limit its ability to deliver a consistently high
quality visitor experience. High staff turnover directly leads to higher recruitment
and advertising costs, higher training costs, reduced returns to training and an
increased workload on existing staff.

Together Travel & Tourism talent gaps and deficiencies impact on costs,
bottom-line profitability, competitiveness, service, quality, brand, investment and
ultimately future growth.

Talent is increasingly seen as a key enabler for wider economic development,


facilitator of growth and source of competitiveness. In this way, talent is no different to
other supply-side factors like land, capital, technology and infrastructure. However,
traditionally - as the literature review for this study has shown, with the exception of
some countries - governments generally have not prioritised human resources and
training to the same extent, for example, as infrastructure.

The impacts of Travel & Tourism talent imbalances and deficiencies are listed below.
These clearly demonstrate why talent issues are so important to the sectors growth
sustainability and bottom-line.

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Final Report - January 2015

Labour and skills are a crucial


component in the tourism
supply chain. Enhancing the
quality of service is pivotal in
building a regions reputation
both domestically and globally,
and making it competitive in
the international marketplace. It
ensures that once tourists visit
your destination, they will want to
return and bring others with them
Source: Australia Government 2012: Tackling
labour and skills issues in the tourism and
hospitality industry: A guide to developing tourism
employment plans

All of the above impacts relate to negative imbalances where the supply of
talent falls short of demand, directly affecting industry employers. But there are
negative consequences also where there is an excess supply of Travel & Tourism
talent, which affects more today and tomorrows future employees. These
negative consequences include, among others, downward pressure on wage
levels and lack of employment and career progression opportunities. In the 1990s
and early 2000s, the global economy experienced a boom and bust in the IT
talent market. During the tech boom, talent was attracted to IT by the growing job
opportunities and financial remuneration on offer. The dot com crash led to heavy
jobs losses and remuneration fell behind other sectors. Even as the IT industry
and talent demand market quickly recovered, the perception of the industry was
scarred and supply was slow to respond leading to global talent shortages which
are still prevalent today.

Developing more tourism


infrastructurehotels,
resorts, transportation,
tourist destinations, and other
amenitiesis not enough to
meet the needs of this rapidly
expanding industry in China.
The government and private
enterprises must invest in tourism
and hospitality education to fill
the critical gap in workers who
understand international best
practices. China has invested
billions of dollars in infrastructure,
but now is the time to invest
in human resources and skills
development
Source: The Hospitality Talent Gap, China
Business Review

12

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Human Capital Issues in Context

13

Structural characteristics of the Travel & Tourism sector


Travel & Tourism is highly diverse in terms of its sub-sector mix, occupations and talent
requirements: sub-sectors range from hotels to air transport, while occupations range
from concierges to pilots.
A relatively high proportion of the Travel & Tourism workforce is employed in
elementary, low skilled occupations, e.g. cleaners, waitresses. The sector has a
below economy average proportion (at least in advanced economies) of its workforce
employed in higher skilled professional occupations.
The Travel & Tourism workforce is also younger and more female-orientated versus the
global economy average. In addition a high share of the workforce is part-time, casual
and seasonal. The sector is more likely to recruit foreign workers compared to the
economy average5.
Evidence from the survey of WTTC member companies supports the assertion that
Travel & Tourism is an important employer of young people. All but one of the member
companies had hired a school or university leaver to their first job in the past two years.
Nearly all companies offer some form of work experience or internship programmes, or
provide further education and training programmes in order to specifically attract young
people and retain them within their organisations.

2.1

Travel & Tourism talent supply


The supply of talent to Travel & Tourism is broad and comes from many sources given
the diversity of sectors, occupation roles and range of talent requirements.
Some employee skills are transferable across Travel & Tourism sub-sectors and from
other sectors in the economy. But some other talent requirements are more specific
and are supplied from more narrow and well-defined sources.
For certain sectors and roles, there are typically few skill barriers for people to enter Travel
& Tourism compared to other sectors. This is a positive in the sense that people can work
in the sector with little prior experience or qualifications, and train on the job. They can
thus be recruited from a wide pool of labour. But this can also be a negative in terms of its
impact on perceived career attractiveness and pathways6.

Academic articles and published reports have focused a great deal on human capital
issues, many of which have enormous implications and impact on
Travel & Tourism companies and the future of the in sector as a whole. These issues
include the structural characteristics of the Travel & Tourism sector; Travel & Tourism
talent supply; imbalances between Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply; why
Travel & Tourism experiences talent challenges; Travel & Tourism talent projections;
and Travel & Tourism talent best practice policy examples, including case studies.

The talent market, in general and for Travel & Tourism, is becoming increasingly global
with higher cross-border migration7.
Looking to the future, the following megatrends will exert a significant influence on the
future supply of talent to Travel & Tourism, although to varying degrees by country:
declining youth demographics; retirement of the baby boom generation; rising female
labour market participation; a general shift towards a more highly skilled (in education
attainment terms) labour supply as older, less skilled workers retire; and the potential for
some reverse migration back to fast growing emerging economies8.

This chapter also integrates highlights from a survey of senior HR professionals


from WTTC member companies4. The survey examined talent recruitment and
development, aiming to understand the scale of current talent gaps and the particular
difficulties in recruiting quality staff.

UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insights-tourism
WTTC Human Capital Research: http://www.wttc.org/focus/research-for-action/policy-research/human-capital-research/
7
The Hospitality Talent Gap, China Business Review: http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/the-hospitality-talent-gap/
8
The World Economic Forum, cited in The Hospitality Talent Gap, China Business Review: http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/the-hospitality-talentgap/
5

4
The 41 respondents to the survey represent the talent situation amongst companies from almost all
Travel & Tourism industries and cover 25 countries, as well as a collective view for Europe and the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC). The survey was administered by WTTC and designed in conjunction
with Oxford Economics.

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Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

2.2

Final Report - January 2015

2.2.3

Imbalances between Travel & Tourism talent


demand and supply

Economy-wide talent imbalances


Talent imbalances in Travel & Tourism take many forms, covering both shortages and
surpluses:

Shortage or surplus of particular occupations, e.g. chefs, pilots

Shortage or surplus of job-specific skills, e.g. foreign languages, IT

Shortage or surplus of certain soft skills, e.g. customer service, problem solving

2.2.4

2.2.1 Survey of WTTC member companies

Lack of country-specific Travel & Tourism talent


imbalance evidence

Impacts of talent imbalances

The main effects of talent shortages on Travel & Tourism businesses in


the UK have been to increase the workload of other staff and to create
difficulties meeting customer service objectives. Skill shortages have also
caused significant numbers of tourism establishments to have difficulties
meeting quality standards. Increased operating costs, and losing business
or orders to competitors, were also commonly mentioned by tourism
establishments as negative impacts of skill shortages.

A key finding from the literature review was the lack of countries actually
undertaking and publishing research on Travel & Tourism talent issues. This holds
also for those countries with the largest (in absolute and relative terms) and fastest
growing Travel & Tourism industries, and for countries which this research predicts
will experience the greatest future talent hotspots and stretch points.

According to the survey of WTTC member companies, the impact of the


difficulties of recruiting tends to manifest itself by creating a higher workload
and engendering lower morale and less creativity among the existing
workforce. The effects of internal skill gaps, where some staff are not fully
proficient in their roles, are similar. While none of the HR managers said that
they had yet had to withdraw products or services from the market due to a
lack of staff, one quarter admitted that a further impact of recruitment issues
is a difficulty in meeting quality standards. Recruitment difficulties can also
force companies into moving staff into new positions or over-promoting in
order to fill gaps. This in turn can fuel other issues for HR teams and spur job
turnover or bring about a lack of job proficiency among a proportion of the
workforce. Vacancies aside, having staff that are not proficient in their roles
also impacts the morale and workloads of the rest of the employees and can
affect the quality of service levels provided to customers.

It could be the case that in many countries, stakeholders, away from the cold face
of Travel & Tourism (e.g. from government and education), are not aware or made
aware of talent challenges because of this lack of reported evidence. It is hoped
that this research may fill some of that gap in evidence and prompt these countries
to look more closely at Travel & Tourism talent issues and build on this research.

The limited evidence that exists from literature shows that: the UK has a higher
share of Travel & Tourism businesses and employees with skill gaps (21% and
9%) compared to the economy average; in Australia, according to analysis by the
Australian Government, a very high share (half) of Travel & Tourism businesses
faces recruitment, retention and skill shortages9; and in Rwanda technical skill
gaps are reported to be as high as 25% of Travel & Tourisms total employment in
Rwanda and 50% of staff need language training in English, French and Chinese
(languages aligned to visitor origin markets).

Australia Government 2012: Tackling labour and skills issues in the tourism and hospitality industry: A guide to developing tourism employment plans:
https://www.austrade.gov.au/Tourism/Policies/National-long-term-strategy/Working-groups/Labour-and-Skills Manpower Group - 2014 Talent
Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.co.uk/media/137404/2014_talent_shortage_wp_us2.pdf

According to the ManpowerGroup talent shortage survey, covering 37,000


employers from 42 countries10, the top 10 jobs employers found difficulty
filling in 2014 across the whole economy were, in descending order: skilled
trades and engineers (ranked 1 and 2 for three consecutive years), technicians,
sales representatives, accounting & finance staff, management/executives,
sales managers, IT staff, office support staff and drivers. Although as this
represents talent shortages across the economy, this is by no means fully
representative of talent shortages in Travel & Tourism, although all of these
roles are required by the Travel & Tourism sector.

Section 1.2 has already established a framework for analysing impacts of


Travel & Tourism talent gaps and deficiencies. In general, evidence from literature
on the impact of Travel & Tourism talent imbalances is limited. This is partly because
the aim of some of the reviewed reports is to identify current and potential future
imbalances with the hope of addressing these imbalances and avoiding negative
impacts.
Some evidence, however, exists for UK Travel & Tourism11 and from the survey of
WTTC member companies.

Over half of the Travel & Tourism companies in the WTTC member survey described
their experience of hiring staff as difficult, with the challenge greatest for higher skilled
and more professional roles. Alongside engineers, chefs and other technical roles,
other jobs that are particularly difficult to recruit for include accountants and food &
beverage managers. Nearly two-thirds of the companies also reported that recruiting
staff has become more difficult in the past two years.

2.2.2

15

At the broader economy-wide level, the ManpowerGroup talent shortage survey12


provides analysis of the impact of talent shortages. Over half of employers
experiencing a talent shortage say it has a medium to high impact on their ability
to meet client needs. Other impacts, in descending order of occurrence, include:
reduced competitiveness/productivity, increased employee turnover, reduced
innovation and creativity, lower employee morale and higher wage costs.

Manpower Group - 2014 Talent Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.co.uk/media/137404/2014_talent_shortage_wp_us2.pdf


https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tourism-sector-skills-insights
12
Manpower Group - 2014 Talent Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.co.uk/media/137404/2014_talent_shortage_wp_us2.pdf
10
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2.3

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Why the Travel & Tourism sector experiences


talent gaps and deficiencies

Retention

The Travel & Tourism sector faces talent problems from high staff turnover and
leakage of talent to other sectors20, which is often far in excess of the demand from
Travel & Tourisms expansion21.

Career attractiveness and pathways

In the UK, turnover ranges from 7.5% for self-catered accommodation to over a
quarter for pubs, bars and nightclubs22.

The seasonal nature of Travel & Tourism demand in many destinations means that
it is often difficult to offer year-round full-time employment which other sectors can
and do offer13.

The geographically remote location of some Travel & Tourism businesses can also
mean limited local talent supply. This can be exacerbated by other constraints
such as lack of local housing and transport connecting tourism businesses to
larger pools of labour14.

According to the survey of WTTC member companies, average annual staff


turnover was 18%, ranging from a high of 36% to a low of 3%. Recruitment is thus
an on-going activity. Job roles in elementary occupations, sales and customer
services and those with skilled trades have the highest levels of turnover.

In some countries cultural and social issues make Travel & Tourism less attractive
than other sectors, and place a glass ceiling on female employment participation15.

The WTTC member survey also concluded that companies have to place
emphasis on creating structures and systems within their organisations to best
retain their workforce. The survey also highlighted flexible recruitment and
retention practices as the new necessities of workforce planning.

Low barriers to enter the sector can have a drawback: namely the perception of
low skilled, low paid, menial transient jobs16.

A lack of clear staff development pathways, unsociable working hours and low
earnings potential (for some job roles) combine to create a poor recruitment image
for the sector17.

Travel & Tourism has some unique features that make it a challenging sector to recruit
and retain talent and skills.

Uncompetitive pay

Competition

Travel & Tourism often faces strong competition from other fast-growing sectors
recruiting similar types of talent and often paying higher salaries18.

Survey results of WTTC member companies show that for two-thirds of senior
HR managers, recruitment challenges over the next five years are expected to get
even more difficult as competition for talent is expected to further increase among
sectors and across geographies. The survey found that a strong employer brand
can both improve application rates for new employees and increase engagement
and retention among the current workforce.

13

17

Rather than facing an overall general lack of applicants for vacancies, WTTC
member countries reported that some applicants who apply to vacancies tend
to want higher levels of pay than can be offered, or do not have the required skills
or experience required. In many cases also, applicants were said to lack the right
attitude or motivation to fit with the company. Trying to maintain competitiveness
through benchmarking the salaries of similar roles in competitor companies and
industries is becoming common place among WTTC member companies.

Education supply

A report by the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation


of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC) also identified the problem
of losing talent to other sectors and employers failure to attract qualified
personnel into the sector19.

In some countries there is a lack of provision of Travel & Tourism courses from
education institutions, often due to a lack of qualified tourism educators23.

Where Travel & Tourism courses are offered, the curricula can be poorly designed
and outdated. There often needs to be a greater balance between theory and
practice, a change from a traditional teaching mode to a more modernized,
international, innovative, and interactive teaching mode, and in general greater
responsiveness to and alignment with the sectors needs.

Although growing, the number of Travel & Tourism apprenticeships and volume of
vocational provision in general typically falls short of demand.

British Columbia Labour Market Strategy: http://www.jtst.gov.bc.ca/skills_for_growth/

McKinsey Global Institute - Talent tensions ahead: A CEO briefing, Richard Dobbs, Susan Lund, and Anu Madgavkar: http://www.mckinsey.com/
insights/economic_studies/talent_tensions_ahead_a_ceo_briefing
15
http://www.yoursingapore.com/TravelRave/resources/TravelRave2013-Highlights-Report_Navigating-the-next-wave-in-Asia%27-Tourism.pdf
16
UK state of nation report 2013: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/reports/state-of-the-nation-hospitality-and-tourism
17
UK state of nation report 2013: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/reports/state-of-the-nation-hospitality-and-tourism
18
UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insightstourism
19
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
14

UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insightstourism
21
Anecdotal evidence suggests turnover in Chinese hotels is as high as 40%.
22
State of the Nation 2013 Hospitality and Tourism report: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/reports/state-of-the-nation-hospitality-and-tourism
23
Rwanda Development Board Rwanda Skill Survey 2012 T&H Report: http://www.lmis.gov.rw/scripts/publication/reports/Tourism.pdf
20

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Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Structural characteristics

Economy-wide reasons for talent shortages

Some occupations are heavily gender biased, e.g. housekeepers (female) versus
chefs (male). This limits potential talent supply if, for example, few males apply for
housekeeping positions24.

Travel & Tourism sector practice and training


Not all employers proactively pursue or have in place a strategy to address talent
challenges. In some cases this is understandable given that many Travel & Tourism
businesses are small and lack talent management capacity by not having an inhouse human resources department.

Some firms under-invest in staff up-skilling, which is likely to be partly linked to the
transient nature and high turnover characteristics of the workforce.

In some countries, there is a lack of training to nurture middle managers and a lack
of relevant rotational opportunities with workplaces25.

Young employees are more likely to engage with training which meets their
personal as well as company needs and aspirations. So for young people,
purely functional, task-related training is valued less than more generic skills
development26.

2.4

In economies with fast growing Travel & Tourism industries, more focus has often
been placed on investing in physical infrastructure rather than talent27.

Too few countries undertake either formal Travel & Tourism workforce planning
exercises or detailed talent studies.

There is often a lack of industry-government-education engagement to discuss


and resolve talent issues.

Some countries have very favourable immigration policies which support


Travel & Tourism talent supply, for example Gulf countries, others do not28.

UK state of nation report: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/reports/state-of-the-nation-hospitality-and-tourism


http://www.yoursingapore.com/TravelRave/resources/TravelRave2013-Highlights-Report_Navigating-the-next-wave-in-Asia%27-Tourismpdf
26
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
27
The Hospitality Talent Gap, China Business Review: http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/the-hospitality-talent-gap/
28
Canadian Tourism Research Institute The Future of Canadas Tourism Sector
http://cthrc.ca/~/media/Files/CTHRC/Home/research_publications/labour_market_information/Supply_Demand/SupplyDemand_Report_Current_
EN.ashx and British Columbia Labour Market Strategy: http://www.jtst.gov.bc.ca/skills_for_growth/
24

25

It is useful to compare the factors above, for why Travel & Tourism experiences
talent gaps and deficiencies, with economy-wide reasons why employers
have difficulty filling jobs. According to the ManpowerGroup talent shortage
survey29, the main reasons employers had difficulty filling jobs in 2014 include, in
descending order: lack of technical competence (hard skills), lack of applicants,
lack of experience, lack of workplace competence (soft skills), looking for more
pay than is offered, undesirable geographic destination, poor image of business
sector/occupation and lack of applicants willing to work in part-time/contingent
roles. It is clear that many of these reasons correlate closely with the factors
identified specifically for Travel & Tourism.

Travel & Tourism future talent projections


Replacement demand will form a major component of future Travel & Tourism job
openings. Replacement demand refers to the talent requirement to replace workforce
leavers (either temporarily or permanently) due to retirement, maternity leave and
joining other sectors amongst other reasons, and to backfill jobs vacated by an
existing, promoted worker.

Replacement demand is not unique to Travel & Tourism. All sectors in any dynamic
economy with retirement and labour churn have a talent requirement relating to
replacement demand. The extent of replacement demand depends on a number
of factors including the age and gender structure of the workforce, staff turnover
and an industrys relative appeal. Travel & Tourisms younger than average age
structure should reduce replacement demand but its more female-orientated
workforce and high staff turnover would increase it. It is difficult to compare
replacement demand across sectors due to limited data availability and therefore
difficult to assess whether Travel & Tourism has a larger relative replacement
demand talent requirement.

The balance between new roles and replacement demand will vary by country. In
countries with more mature and slower growing Travel & Tourism industries, and
older workforces, replacement demand will account for a higher share of vacancies.

In the UK, for example, replacement demand30 will be 4 times as large as


expansion demand (the growth in the stock of sector jobs/new job roles)31.

There will be a rising gradient of talent demand across Travel & Tourism a slow
shift to more high skilled openings but there will still be significant opportunities
and demand for people with low qualifications32.

There will be a growing demand for managerial skills and customer service. Future
managers will need to have broader management and business competencies33.

Government policy and engagement


Manpower Group - 2014 Talent Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.co.uk/media/137404/2014_talent_shortage_wp_us2.pdf


A breakdown of the different sources of this replacement demand is not available.
31
UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insightstourism
32
UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insightstourism
33
http://www.yoursingapore.com/TravelRave/resources/TravelRave2013-Highlights-Report_Navigating-the-next-wave-in-Asia%27-Tourism.pdf
29

30

19

20

2.5

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

In some countries, especially those where Travel & Tourism is rapidly growing from
a relatively immature base, even where talent supply is increasing, the volume of
talent supply with specific industry qualifications is only a fraction of the volume of
future Travel & Tourism talent demand.

Looking ahead, future talent trends and demand vary globally in the sector. For
example34, in Canada talent shortages in Travel & Tourism are projected to increase
substantially as the babyboom generation retires. Although immigration and higher
labour market participation by women will partially offset the departure of baby
boomers, these two factors are not expected to be enough. The projected talent
shortfall is equivalent to 10% of total employment, with shortages most severe for
food and beverage services35. In Hainan, China, a huge talent shortage is projected
given the predicted tripling in demand in a short period of time36 while in Asia there is
predicted to be an 8 million talent shortage by 2021 in Travel & Tourism37. The supply
of hotel managers is expected to meet less than half of potential demand.

This sub-section first highlights examples of general economy-wide and


Travel & Tourism specific talent best practice from literature. This is followed by four
case study examples: Singapore, Australia, Canada and Egypt.

The ManpowerGroup talent shortage survey38 report provides evidence on how


employers are bridging their talent gaps. It describes how HR managers need to focus
on three areas - people practices, talent sources and work models but presently
employers are twice as likely to focus on people practices compared to both talent
sources and work models.

Strategies employers are pursuing to overcome talent shortages in each of these


three areas include, among others:
People practices: Providing additional training and development to
existing staff, utilising non-traditional or previously untried recruitment
practices, redefining qualifying criteria to include individual who
lack required skills but have the potential to acquire them, increasing
starting salaries and providing clear career development opportunities
during recruitment.
Talent sources: Adapting talent sourcing to recruit more untapped
talent pools, recruiting candidates outside the local region and country,
partnering with educational institutions to create curricula aligned to talent
needs and considering new locations to operate from where a larger and
higher quality pool of talent exists.

Note these examples are determined by the availability of literature evidence. As said above, a key finding from the literature review was the lack of
countries undertaking and publishing research on Travel & Tourism talent issues, including producing projections.
35
Canadian Tourism Research Institute The Future of Canadas Tourism Sector: http://cthrc.ca/~/media/Files/CTHRC/Home/research_publications/
labour_market_information/Supply_Demand/SupplyDemand_Report_Current_EN.ashx
36
http://www.whatsonsanya.com/news-18722.html
37
2012 Study by the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) and The Boston Consulting Group
38
Manpower Group - 2014 Talent Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.co.uk/media/137404/2014_talent_shortage_wp_us2.pdf

21

Work models: Increasing the focus on improving the talent pipeline,


redesigning work procedures, offering more flexible work arrangements
and providing virtual work options.

The ManpowerGroup talent shortage survey report also outlines the evolving role
of HR practitioners. They are now expected to be experts in supply and demand,
marketers (since talent is now also a savvy and sophisticated consumer) and
designers (thinking differently how to structure work to access, mobilise, optimise
and unleash the potential of current and prospective employees).

Countries where the environment is conducive to growth in Travel & Tourism


human resources have:

Travel & Tourism talent best practice policy

2.5.1 Economy-wide talent best practice

34

Final Report - January 2015

A strong customer service base

A youthful workforce

A flexible labour market

Positive perceptions of T&T jobs

An open policy to hiring foreign, high quality labour

Prioritised Travel & Tourism

Less competition for jobs from other sectors such as retail

Spare labour market capacity and female participation

High quality company training of employees

22

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

2.5.2

Final Report - January 2015

2.5.3

General Travel & Tourism talent best practice


Literature findings on general Travel & Tourism talent best practice can be grouped
under three headings: industry, education and government.

23

Singapore case study


For Singapore only, its case study evidence covers both economy-wide and
Travel & Tourism talent best practice. Singapore generally is a regarded as an
exemplar for its talent policies.

Economy-wide talent best practice

INDUSTRY

EDUCATION

Mainstream and prioritise talent


management as a central corporate
objective and have in place a talent
strategy39

Provide a sufficient volume and


quality of Travel & Tourism-related
vocational training and accredited
apprenticeships

Explore alternate talent sources


outside of firms and the
Travel & Tourism sector

Have in place a sufficient number


of Travel & Tourism educators so
that this does not act as a supply
constraint

Create partnerships to share part


time or seasonal workers between
businesses in Travel & Tourism and/
or other sectors
Offer different work options to suit
different workers (e.g. to females,
older workers etc)40
Provide clear career guidance
information and communicate
effectively with future talent pools

Have a modern Travel & Tourism


course curricula, and standardise
and certify Travel & Tourism
qualifications
Engage with industry and
governments to teach the right skills
for future employability

GOVERNMENT

Singapore produces a Strategic and Skills-in-Demand List. This is a compilation


of occupations that are key to supporting the growth of key economic sectors in
Singapore. This also lists the skill-sets that are expected to be in strong demand
by industries in the coming years. Job-seekers refer to this list to help them in their
career planning.

In addition to the Skills-in-Demand List, the Manpower Resources Guide is an


initiative by the Ministry of Manpower, in collaboration with several government
agencies and education institutions, to highlight the sources of local manpower
from which companies can tap to meet their immediate and near-term manpower
needs. The guide outlines the specific skill sets in which Singapores new labour
supply will be trained, as well as the salary ranges of occupations. This helps
employers to find and attract the right talent for their needs. Included in the guide
is a special feature on other viable sources of manpower (e.g. older workers and
return-to-work women), which is especially important in a tight labour market such
as Singapores. The guide also provides contact information for each manpower
resource to help employers recruit directly from specific sources.

Both of the above examples clearly contribute to high quality, up-to-date and
transparent labour market intelligence which go a long way to eliminating
information asymmetries for employers, employees and students.

Undertake forward-looking
workforce planning and industry
talent research, including for
example, research to understand
investment required to address skills
gaps41
Have in place a Travel & Tourism
talent strategy at all education levels
including lifelong learning
Engage regularly with industry and
other stakeholders

Travel & Tourism talent best practice42

Put in place supportive and


appropriate immigration policies
linked to the most acute industry and
occupation talent shortages

Offer clear career pathways to


young workers to promote
Travel & Tourism as a viable and
rewarding career option
Offer more apprenticeships
Greater corporate input to
Travel & Tourism education and
training design and teaching

The survey of WTTC member companies showed that the majority of companies have talent strategies in place for both the immediate future and in
the short term (2-5 years). However, this share drops to less than one-third for those that have a strategy with a longer term view.
40
According to the survey, WTTC member companies offer a vast array of benefits to many of its employees, including, among others: bonuses that
are based on the overall performance of the company: 94%; private healthcare: 78%; individual performance-related pay: 72%; share options for
employees: 53%; and subsidised childcare: 19%.
41
European Commission 2012, Rethinking Education: Investing in Skills for Better Socioeconomic Outcomes

The Singapore Government has invested heavily in Travel & Tourisms manpower
capabilities. This funding has represented a sizable share of total Government
spending on developing the industry, highlighting the recognition given to talent
and its importance to the sector. The goals of the funding included: ramping up
advanced specialist training in new niche tourism areas where gaps existed,
staying ahead of regional competitors, and increasing accessibility to new
education opportunities with the help of scholarships.

Singapore has previously developed a Tourism Talent Plan in collaboration with


its Workforce Development Agency. The plan aimed to prepare the workforce to
meet a projected spike in manpower demand, driven by new tourism investments,
including two integrated resorts, and new events. The holistic three-pronged
approach comprised continuing education and training for adult workers, preemployment training for students, and industry development to attract more
workers to join Travel & Tourism. To enlarge the pool of workers with service skills
for tourism jobs, the Workforce Development Agency developed the
Certified Service Professional program (CSP), which extends portable skills
training in service excellence to workers who want to join the tourism sector.

39

Navigating the next phase of Asias tourism: http://www.yoursingapore.com/TravelRave/resources/TravelRave2013-Highlights-Report_Navigatingthe-next-wave-in-Asia%27-Tourism.pdf

42

24

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

2.5.4

Australia case study43


2.5.5

A National Workforce Development Fund was set up by Service Skills Australia to


help individual enterprises and industry sectors expand their workforce capacity
by providing employers and workers with the opportunity to enhance their skills
through formal training. The fund, supported by the Australian Government as
well as the private sector, also helps to recruit and retain quality staff in the service
industries. The backing from the Australian Government was considered to give
the scheme credibility and status.
By developing managerial skills as part of formal training, employees receiving the
training started to view roles within the Travel & Tourism industry as a more viable
long-term career path. With education and labour organisations involved in the
fund, participants were given the option of a range of training and development
opportunities including accredited courses, traineeships, apprenticeships,
workshops, short courses, non-accredited training and blended learning.
As a result of the National Workforce Development Fund, Service Skills Australia
recognised better outcomes for both employees and employers within
Travel & Tourism. Overall skills were improved and staff turnover was reduced.

Canada case study44


2.5.6

Final Report - January 2015

The overall goal of the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council (CTHRC) is
to improve the quality and competitiveness of the Canadian tourism labour force.
Primarily, the CTHRC assists businesses with HR planning and training, as well as
offering consultancy services in the development of occupational standards, skill
standards, training, assessment, certification and administration.

The CTHRC aims to reduce the impact of poorly trained employees on


customer service, revenue, job satisfaction and morale, benefitting both
employees and employers.

Direct backing from the Canadian Government, which funds all development
and updates of standards, training and certification programmes, has brought
recognition to the importance of standards within Travel & Tourism. The
programme and programme standards are further validated by their inclusion in
public and private education systems.

Overall, the funding programme has proved successful, providing suitable


training resources to support all levels of training in Travel & Tourism at both a
local and regional level.

2.5.7

Egypt case study


According to COMCEC45, tourism in Egypt is set to grow in the next decade and
will have a significant role in the sustainability of the countrys culture, economy,
environment and state security.

43
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
44
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
45
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).

46
47

25

However, despite large-scale investment from the Government, domestic private


sector and FDI, Egypts international tourism competitiveness is being jeopardized
by poor service levels. Indeed this is confirmed later in the report by Egypts poor
ranking for its Travel & Tourism enabling environment which is a more serious issue
for the country than the sectors demand-supply balance projections.

To address this, efforts are being made to improve the skills of personnel
employed in the tourism sector.

The Ministry of Tourism, through the Egyptian Tourism Federation46, aims to


promote increased professionalism in management within the hotel and tourism
industry. It acknowledges the need to invest in human resources through continual
investment in academic and occupational skills.

Training is demand-driven and takes account of market-needs and the education


system together. It primarily focuses on capacity building of senior managers and
creating a competitive and sustainable tourism product.

Employees benefit from industry-relevant skills upgrades, while organisations benefit


from a stream of qualified staff to meet current and future needs within the industry.

The effective partnership between involved stakeholders - the Government,


industry and the education system - is indicative of the importance placed on
Egypts Travel & Tourism potential. The multi-strand partnership has ensured
consistent interest and focus on human resources and talent enhancement.

Lao National Institute for Tourism and Hospitality


case study

Located in Vientiane, the Lao National Institute of Tourism and Hospitalitys (LANITH)
mission is to be the countrys most valuable tourism education resource. It has
established a national tourism curriculum, using forward-thinking teaching methods,
and provides international-level training facilities, resources and equipment47.

LANITH was set up in 2008 to maximise service and product capacity in


Travel & Tourism. It was developed with the support of Luxembourg Development
and formally accredited by the Laos Ministry of Education and Sports in 2013.

LANITH provides training aimed at both school leavers and tourism professionals.
New students take a two-year Diploma in Tourism and Hospitality while the Passport
to Success training program is available to employees already working in the sector.

Passport to Success started in 2011 and is now the biggest industry training
program in Laos, offering short vocational courses in areas such as customer
service, kitchen management and food production. To date, almost 1,000
hospitality and tourism staff have studied subjects such as customer service, food
and beverage operations, management and communications.

LANITH were winners of the 2014 WTTC Tourism for Tomorrow People award. The
institute was recognised for developing tourism intelligently and sustainably, while
also ensuring that its Lao citizens benefit from growth of the sector.

www.etf.org.eg
Pacific Asia Travel Association: http://www.pata.org/Members/6461

26

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Talent demand-supply balance &


enabling environment analysis

27

Final Report - January 2015

3.1

Talent demand-supply balance projection


analysis
Quantifying the future Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply imbalance patterns
and trends is needed not only to identify how future talent needs for Travel & Tourism
may differ from the economy as a whole, but also to look specifically at where
geographical stretch points might be, when (e.g. in short, medium and/or long term) and
at what level of educational attainment (university, high school and below high school).

The research uses two methodological approaches to assess the


country-by-country Travel & Tourism talent demand, supply and imbalances and the
talent enabling environment in each country. This chapter summarises the results
of the talent analysis. Results are presented first for each of the two methodology
approaches, followed by the combined composite rank analysis. See Annex B for full
methodological details.

3.1.1 Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply projections:


Long-run (2014-2024) top and bottom 5 growth

The top 5 and bottom 5 countries for Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply
growth in the long-run to 2024 are presented in Table 3.1 below.
The top 5 rankings for both Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply future growth
are dominated by emerging economies in the Middle East and South East Asia, as well
as Costa Rica (demand) and Turkey (demand and supply).
The bottom 5 rankings are dominated by ageing European and North East Asian
countries, plus Australia (demand) and Russia (supply).

Table 3.1: Top and bottom 5 countries for Travel & Tourism
talent demand and supply growth (2014-2024)
Top & Bottom 5 countries for Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply growth
(Long-run, 2014-2024)

RANK

DEMAND

Caveat: This research is a first step to building a rich and comparable global evidence base on Travel & Tourism talent demand, supply and imbalances,
and the current talent enabling environment. But in order to deepen and broaden global Travel & Tourism talent analysis, and improve the robustness
of the analysis, other research stages could be undertaken, notably a bespoke industry survey with a much larger sample than achieved by the survey
of WTTC member companies, and in-depth consultations with a range of stakeholders. This should be borne in mind when viewing and drawing
conclusions from the results of this chapter.

SUPPLY

THAILAND

SAUDI ARABIA

TURKEY

BAHRAIN

SAUDI ARABIA

OMAN

OMAN

TURKEY

COSTA RICA

PHILIPPINES

SOUTH KOREA

42

42

AUSTRIA

AUSTRALIA

43

43

CZECH REPUBLIC

JAPAN

44

44

SOUTH KOREA

GERMANY

45

45

JAPAN

NORWAY

46

46

RUSSIA

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

28

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Figures 3.1 to 3.4 overleaf chart the talent demand-supply balance projections across
the 46 countries for:

The long-run (2014-2024) for all education attainment levels combined;

The long-run (2014-2024) for all education levels combined versus the
Total Economy long-run outlook;

The long-run (2014-2024) by individual education attainment levels; and

The long-run (2014-2024) for all education levels combined versus the
medium-run (2014-2019) outlook.

Final Report - January 2015

3.1.3

Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance


projections: Long-run (2014-2024)
37 of the 46 countries are forecast to have deficit Travel & Tourism talent trends
over the next decade, e.g. talent demand growth faster than talent supply growth (Fig
3.1). This is either because of strong projected growth in
Travel & Tourism talent demand, weak projected growth in Travel & Tourism talent
supply, or a combination of both.
The following 12 countries are projected to have the most acute deficit
Travel & Tourism talent trends (demand growth more than 1 percentage point
faster than supply growth): Thailand, Poland, Taiwan, Russia, Peru, Costa Rica,
Argentina, Sweden, Singapore, Italy, Turkey and Greece. For some of these
countries, the source of the talent trend deficit is a combination of strong talent demand
growth (given the strong forecast for Travel & Tourism direct employment) and weak
talent supply growth (typically linked to weak demographics).
Of these countries, Greece and Italy, with current and projected high unemployment,
may be more able to avoid experiencing acute talent shortages by drawing in the
unemployed to meet demand. Although this assumes a geographical matching of
where demand will be and where the unemployed reside, or a high degree of labour
mobility, which will not always be true.
In contrast, tight labour markets such as Singapore, where unemployment is low and
the economy is close to full employment, and Travel & Tourism is a less attractive
career than the economy average job, may find it difficult to avoid an acute talent
shortage. Perhaps for this reason it should be of no surprise that Singapore is a leading
case study for Travel & Tourism talent best practice because of the challenges and
pressures that it faces.
The Philippines and India are projected to have marginal Travel & Tourism talent
surplus trends (although talent supply growth is less than half of one percentage point
faster than demand growth). Given margins for error in the analysis and the relative
small size of the projected surplus trend, this should not be interpreted to mean that
these two countries will be immune to talent challenges. Neither of these two countries
ranks particularly strongly for their talent enabling environment. For both, apart from
the pillars for demographics and relative industry attractiveness, they score relatively
poorly across other pillars.

Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance


projections: Travel & Tourism versus Total Economy
Over the long-run to 2024, Travel & Tourisms talent balance projections are
considerably more challenging compared to the wider economy.
For the total economy, only 6 countries are forecast to have deficit talent trends over
the next decade (one of which is Singapore), compared to 37 of the 46 for Travel &
Tourism (Fig 3.2). No countries are projected to have economy-wide talent deficit
trends of greater than 1 percentage point, compared to 12 countries for Travel &
Tourism.
Travel & Tourism talent demand growth is faster than the economy average
employment growth in all 46 countries.

Note recap the figures refer to the percentage point difference in projected
Travel & Tourism talent supply growth minus projected Travel & Tourism talent demand
growth. A positive figure refers to a trend talent surplus and a negative figure a trend
talent deficit.

3.1.2

29

Travel & Tourism also has less favourable talent supply projections in two-thirds of
the 46 countries, although the differences are relatively small. This is because Travel
& Tourisms talent demand structure is more weighted towards lower education
attainment levels which are decreasing as a share of total labour supply in most
economies.

3.1.4

Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance


projections: Education attainment level
Travel & Tourism talent balance projections vary significantly by education attainment
level in the long-run to 2024 (Fig 3.3).
Compared to the analysis for all education attainment levels combined, fewer
countries (21 versus 37) are projected to have deficit talent trends over the next decade
at college / university level. This figure rises to 34 countries at high school level and 43
countries below high school level.
For the number of countries with projected talent deficit trends of greater than 1
percentage point, the figures are 10 for college / university level, 11 for high school level
and 32 for below high school level (recall the figure for all education attainment levels
combined is 12).
43 of 46 countries with projected talent deficit trends at below high school level,
of which for 32 the deficit is greater than 1 percentage point, is a striking finding.
Countries not forecast to have deficit talent trends at college / university level include:
Philippines, India, Norway, Egypt, Australia, Germany, Colombia, Brazil, Indonesia,
South Africa, Morocco and China. Many of these emerging economies have seen a
rapid explosion in their recent supply of university-educated persons, a trend which is
expected to continue. Although the quality of all of the expansion in this new graduate
supply is often raised as an issue for concern, especially amongst multinationals
operating in these countries who can benchmark to other countries.
Countries forecast to have the largest deficit talent trends below high school level
include: Thailand, Peru, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, South Korea, Russia, Poland,
Chile, Malaysia, China, Singapore, Mexico, Egypt and Greece. Continued high and
growing demand for below high school level talent with the effect of technology
not seemingly replacing this demand (see box below) - and a declining share of the
labour supply with below high school attainment, are they key factors behind this
challenging talent projection for Travel & Tourism.

30

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Fig 3.1: Balance between demand for and


supply of talent in the Travel & Tourism
Sector (2014-2024)
Travel & Tourism
All education levels
Long-run (2014-2024)

31

Fig 3.2: Balance between demand for and


supply of talent in the Travel & Tourism
Sector versus Total Economy (2014-2024)
Travel & Tourism
Total Economy
All education levels All education levels
Long-run (2014-2024) Long-run (2014-2024)

Impact of technology on Travel & Tourism employment


Much has been written about the impact that technology has in replacing jobs
in some industries an issue on-going since the industrial revolution, but one
gathering pace with the combination of massive computing efficiencies and the
internet of things being able to supplant jobs currently requiring cognition, and
therefore people, to perform.
According to the survey of WTTC member companies, HR managers believe
that future technology will only be able to replace Travel & Tourism roles to some
extent and mainly with support and administrative roles.
Tourism services benefit and are enhanced by human interactions, yet HR
managers recognise how the move in creating more self-service opportunities for
customers could reduce certain staffing needs. At the same time, it is the training
for the expected introduction of new technologies over both the short and mediumterms that HR managers most need to prepare their current workforce for.

3.1.5

Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance


projections: Medium (2014-2019) versus long-run
(2014-2024)
Slightly more countries (40) are forecast to have Travel & Tourism deficit talent trends
in the medium-run (next five years) compared to 37 in the long-run (next ten years
(Fig 3.4). The difference is even greater when looking at the number of countries
with projected talent deficit trends in excess of 1 percentage point (21 versus 12).
Countries with noticeably more acute medium versus long-run talent challenges
include: Bahrain, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Oman, Switzerland and
Bermuda.
The reason for this is that demand growth is stronger in the medium versus long-run.
Travel & Tourisms talent challenges are therefore clearly more than a long-term issue.
They are impacting on the sector today and will have a greater impact in the next 5 years
compared to the next 10 years. Given the lag between action and impact on the pipeline
of talent supply, interventions to boost Travel & Tourism talent supply, in volume and
quality terms, cannot be postponed. This is even more pressing where countries have
major events or new resort openings where talent demand is lumpy and can spike, and
where countries have ambitious aspirations for Travel & Tourism with growth even faster
than assumed in the baseline demand scenario used in this study.
Notes: Trend talent surplus > 0; Trend talent demand-supply balance 0;
Trend talent deficit < 0
Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

Notes: Trend talent surplus > 0; Trend talent demand-supply balance 0;


Trend talent deficit < 0
Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

32

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Fig 3.3: Balance between demand for and supply of


talent in the Travel & Tourism Sector by Education
Attainment Level (2014-2024)
Long-run
(2014-2024)

Travel & Tourism


College
High
BelowHigh
University level School level School level

Fig 3.4: Balance between demand for and supply of


talent in the Travel & Tourism Sector in the LongRun (2014-2024) and Medium-Run (2014-2019)
Travel & Tourism
Travel & Tourism
All education levels All education levels
Long-run (2014-2024) Mid-run (2014-2019)

33

Final Report - January 2015

Table 3.2: Countries with projected talent deficit trends < -1% (acute talent shortages)
Travel & Tourism: Talent deficit
All education
levels

All education
levels

College /
University level

High school
level

Below High
school level

Long-run
(2014-2024)

Medium-run
(2014-2024)

Long-run
(2014-2024)

Long-run
(2014-2024)

Long-run
(2014-2024)

-2.9

-1.4

-2.1

-1.3

-1.6
-1.6
-1.4
-1.6
-2.5
-1.1
-2.3
-2.6

-1.4

Notes: Trend talent surplus > 0; Trend talent demand-supply balance 0;


Trend talent deficit < 0
Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

Notes: Trend talent surplus > 0; Trend talent demand-supply balance 0;


Trend talent deficit < 0
Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

Notes: Trend talent surplus > 0; Trend talent demand-supply balance 0; Trend talent deficit < 0
Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

34

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

3.1.6

Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance


projections: Expert feedback from WTTC member
companies
In the survey of senior HR professionals of WTTC member companies, respondents
were asked to provide feedback on whether they perceived Oxford Economics country
or region talent demand-supply balance projections (the analysis above) to be either
too optimistic or pessimistic. This qualitative in-country/region and on-the-ground
expertise is helpful to complement and road test the quantitative projection analysis.
In total and across all education attainment levels, and on balance, the projections
for the Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance were identified as being too
optimistic for 16 countries or regions, and too pessimistic for 11 countries/regions
(not all countries were covered by the survey so no feedback in Table 3.3 below is not
necessarily an indication of agreement with the projection). However in many cases
there was only one response per country so given the small sample, it is difficult and
would be wrong to draw strong conclusions from the survey responses for these
countries. In addition the projections refer to a
ten-year timeframe whereas the current situation in countries and the actual recent
experiences of WTTC member countries may have influenced responses.
That said, two clear messages emerge from the feedback:
1. WTTC member companies believe that the future Travel & Tourism
talent environment will be more challenging than implied by the
quantitative demand-supply balance analysis, especially for countries
which rank better. In particular, and where there was a reasonable number
of country responses, there tended to be unanimous strong opinions about
the demand-supply balance projection being too optimistic for India,
Germany and Morocco.
2. WTTC member countries believe the outlook is not as challenging, or
the talent situation will not be as bad, for the following countries ranked
at the bottom: Thailand, Poland, Taiwan and Russia.

China was an interesting case where there was a mixed response with 3
respondents saying the projection was too optimistic and 5 too pessimistic. This
may jointly reflect concerns about meeting Chinas strong talent demand outlook,
but at the same time confidence in Chinas proven track record of doing what is
necessary to realise its wider economy and sector-specific growth potential.

In terms of broad responses by education attainment level, the feedback suggests


that demand-supply balance projections are too optimistic for university (e.g.
India) and high school (e.g. Morocco) level and too pessimistic for below high
school (e.g. Thailand) level.

35

Final Report - January 2015

Table 3.3: Feedback from WTTC member


companies on Travel & Tourism
demand-supply balance projections

Supply minus demand growth


(Long-run, 2014-2024)

Travel &
Tourism

Feedback
from survey of
WTTC member
companies

Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic

Too optimistic

Too optimistic
Too optimistic

Too pessimistic

Too pessimistic
Too pessimistic
Too pessimistic
Too pessimistic

Notes: Trend talent surplus > 0; Trend talent demand-supply balance 0;


Trend talent deficit < 0
Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

36

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

In addition to feedback on whether the overall projections were too optimistic or


pessimistic, WTTC member companies also provided some useful additional insights
which are summarised below.

Countries where projections were deemed optimistic



India: Indias economy is on an upturn and there will be severe skill shortages in
the hospitality industry. It is already happening now.
India and China: While China and India may produce a lot of college graduates, many
of them chose not to stay in the Travel & Tourism industry or aspire to go overseas as
in the case of India. Also, in these two countries, Travel & Tourism expansions are into
tertiary markets where the educated may not chose to go work in.
GCC countries: In the Gulf region countries, despite graduating from a few
hospitality colleges, the young nationals do not work in hospitality (as a result of
salary, culture and working times). Today, there is no structure to develop young
people in hospitality below high school.

Netherlands and France: In the Netherlands and France, it will be more difficult
to attract people to the Travel & Tourism sector because of lack of flexibility and
demands of the sector in flexibility.

Japan: Japan already faces difficulty in recruiting quality human resources in the
lodging and ground transportation industries.

South Africa: The South African education system is currently not progressing so
there will be an even greater talent shortage as currently experienced.

Final Report - January 2015

Fig 3.5: Thailand - balance between demand for and supply of talent in the Travel & Tourism
Sector in the Long-Run (2014-2024), Medium-Run (2014-2019) and Short-Run (2014-2015)
and By Education Attainment Level
Thailand:
T&T
supply
minus
demand
future
balance
Thailand:Talent
Talent supply
supply
minus
demand
future
balance
Thailand:
Talent
supply
minusfuture
demand
future balanceThailand: T&T
Thailand:
supply
minus
demand
future
balance
Thailand:
minus
demand
balance
supplyT&T
minus
demand
future
balance
0.0

0.0

-0.5

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

-1.5

-1.5

-2.0

-2.0

-2.5

-2.5

-3.0

-3.0

-3.5
-4.0
-4.5

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

0.0

-1.0

-1.0

-2.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0
-3.5
Economy:
Total supply minus
Economy: Total supply
minus
demand
demand
-5.0
-4.0
T&T: Total
skill weighted supply
T&T: Total skill weighted
supply
minus
demand
minus
demand
-4.5
-6.0
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)

Oxford
Economics, WTTC
Source: OxfordSource:
Economics,
WTTC

-3.0
T&T: College
T&T: College educated
supplyeducated
minus supply minus
demand
demand
-4.0
High school
T&T: High schoolT&T:
educated
supplyeducated supply
minus demand minus demand
-5.0
Below
high school educated
T&T: Below highT&T:
school
educated
supply minus demand
supply minus demand
-6.0
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)

Oxford
Economics, WTTC
Source: OxfordSource:
Economics,
WTTC

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

India is projected to have a modest Travel & Tourism talent surplus trend in the
long-run, similar to the economy as a whole. Surplus talent trends are projected
for college and high school level, but a talent deficit trend is projected for below
high school level.

Countries where projections were deemed pessimistic

3.1.7

Poland: The Poland forecast is too pessimistic. The Travel & Tourism market is
rather stable and compared to the existing number of schools and faculties related
to this area, there is even a slight surplus of potential talents.

Thailand: Thailand seems overly pessimistic as the number of people outweighs


the industry growth.

Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance


projections: Country comparison, Thailand versus India
Before turning to results for the Travel & Tourism enabling environment, it is helpful and
useful for illustration to compare talent demand-supply balance projections for two
countries with contrasting outlooks.
Thailand is projected to have acute Travel & Tourism talent deficit trends, which are
even more severe than for the economy as a whole. Deficit talent trends are projected
across each of the three education attainment levels in the medium and long-run, with
the deficit trend more critical below high school level.

37

Fig 3.6: India - balance between demand for and supply of talent in the Travel & Tourism
Sector in the Long-Run (2014-2024), Medium-Run (2014-2019) and Short-Run (2014-2015)
and By Education Attainment Level
India: T&T supply minus demand future balance
India: Talent supply minus demand future balance
India: Talent
India:
supply
Talent
minus
supply
demand
minus
future
demand
balance
future balance India: T&T supply
India: T&T
minus
supply
demand
minus
future
demand
balance
future balance
0.7

3.0

0.7

Economy: Total supply


Economy:
minusTotal
demand
supply minus demand

0.6

0.6

2.5
T&T: Total skill weighted
T&T: Total
supply
skillminus
weighted
demand
supply minus demand

0.5

0.5

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

-1.0

-0.1

-0.1

-1.5

-0.5

-2.0
-0.2
Short-run (2014-15)
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Long-run (2014-24)

Source: Oxford Economics,


Source: Oxford
WTTC
Economics, WTTC

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

2.5

2.0

0.4

-0.2

3.0

-0.5 educated
T&T: College
T&T: supply
Collegeminus
educated supply minus
demand
demand
-1.0
T&T: High school educated
T&T: Highsupply
schoolminus
educated supply minus
demand
demand
-1.5
T&T: Below high school
T&T: Below
educated
highsupply
school educated supply
minus demand minus demand
-2.0
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)

Source: Oxford Economics,


Source: Oxford
WTTC
Economics, WTTC

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

38

3.2

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Talent enabling environment analysis

Final Report - January 2015

For Switzerland, ranked 3rd out of the 46 countries, it demonstrates global


excellence across a number of pillars customer service, training, the general
quality of its human resources etc offsetting weaknesses in demographics,
spare labour market capacity and Travel & Tourisms relative attractiveness.
Switzerland tops the INSEAD Global Talent Competitiveness Index and the WEF
Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (including the human resources pillar).

There is therefore no clear blueprint to achieve a top ranking talent enabling


environment score except to demonstrate excellence across a number, but not
necessarily all, pillars.

For Russia, its bottom rank is explained by weaknesses in customer service,


demographics, openness, the prioritisation of the Travel & Tourism sector and
training. For Egypt its talent pillar weaknesses are in customer service, openness,
the general quality of human resources and training, more than offsetting
the sectors relative attractiveness as an employer and the high prioritisation
accorded to Travel & Tourism. For some of the lowly ranked European countries,
demographics are a key weakness, along with other factors: Greece (customer
service and training), Germany (industry relative attractiveness and low
prioritisation), and Italy (labour market flexibility).

An analysis of the literature identified the characteristics of a country that are important
in enabling the development and growth of talent for Travel & Tourism, the enabling
environment. These are:








A strong customer service base


A youthful workforce
A flexible labour market
Positive perceptions of T&T jobs
An open policy to hiring foreign, high quality labour
Prioritised Travel & Tourism
Less competition for jobs from other sectors such as retail
Spare labour market capacity and female participation
High quality company training of employees

3.2.1 Talent enabling environment: Overall and individual pillars


The top and bottom five ranked countries according to the talent enabling environment
analysis are as follows (see Table 3.4):
Top 5 ranked: Qatar (rank 1 of 46), UAE, Switzerland, Singapore and
Malaysia (rank 5).
Bottom 5 ranked: Russia (rank 1 of 46), Egypt, Italy, Argentina and
Colombia (rank 42).

Table 3.4 explains a countrys overall ranking by also showing its standardised
z-scores for each pillar. Z-scores for each variable within each pillar are provided
in Annex C.

There are several different reasons why the countries listed above rank top and bottom.

For the UAE and Qatar, ranked 1st and 2nd, demographics, labour market
flexibility and openness are key pillar strengths. For Singapore, ranked 4th,
customer service, labour market flexibility, openness, general quality of human
resources and training are the main pillar strengths.

39

Other notable observations from Table 3.4 include:


The threat from growing retail sectors in China and India could pose to
Travel & Tourism in terms of competing for talent.

The largely untapped female talent supply potential in predominantly Muslim


countries with low female labour participation rates (e.g. GCC and North African
countries, Malaysia etc).

The potential talent supply pool in weak European economies where


unemployment remains high, including high youth unemployment Greece,
Italy, Spain, France and other economies such as South Africa and India with
untapped labour. This contrast with tight labour markets with low unemployment
and close to full employment in Singapore and South Korea.

Like other global indices similar to this talent enabling environment analysis, countries
can use the results in Table 3.4 (and more detailed analysis in Annex C) to pinpoint
areas of talent strength to maintain, showcase and improve, and identify areas of
weakness to address. Although not fully comprehensive, this information, alongside
the talent demand-supply balance projections, would serve as a useful starting point
for countries considering developing talent strategies for Travel & Tourism.

40

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

3.2.2

Table 3.4: Travel & Tourism talent enabling environment pillar z scores
Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environment overall and pillar z scores
Overal

Weight

Customer
service

Demographics

Flexibility
of labour
market

Industry
relative
attractiveness

Openness

Prioritisation
of T&T and
existing T&T
skill base

Quality of
general
human
resources

100%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Qatar

0.88

1.33

1.65

1.73

0.69

2.06

-0.59

UAE

0.81

0.64

1.82

1.80

0.26

2.09

0.93

Switzerland

0.76

1.61

-0.45

2.01

-0.31

1.08

Singapore

0.58

0.84

0.01

2.04

-1.21

Malaysia

0.52

0.75

1.11

1.28

0.03

US

0.46

0.66

-0.26

1.89

Austria

0.44

1.54

-0.50

-020

Sweden

0.42

1.44

-0.45

UK

0.38

0.44

Thailand

0.37

0.62

Costa Rica

0.36

0.07

Canada

0.33

0.82

Bermuda

0.31

-0.71

Barbados

0.28

Netherlands
Saudi Arabia
Bahrain

0.17

-0.13

Morocco

0.11

-0.73

10%

10%

0.55

2.08

-1.14

0.47

0.90

-0.01

-0.83

0.52

0.09

1.42

0.58

-0.03

1.65

1.07

0.63

1.41

0.43

-0.28

0.89

0.45

1.03

0.00

0.14

-0.49

0.82

-0.48

0.29

-0.28

1.46

0.64

0.28

0.86

0.46

-0.31

0.82

0.63

0.99

0.05

1.25

-0.95

-0.67

0.67

-0.20

1.07

-0.28

0.61

1.11

-0.40

1.31

0.80

0.50

0.42

1.14

1.87

0.27

1.06

0.07

1.12

1.30

0.00

0.78

-0.74

-0.03

-0.16

-0.64

0.85

1.00

-0.68

-0.21

0.53

0.13

0.36

-0.22

0.18

-0.47

1.75

-0.03

0.05

-0.40

1.11

0.04

0.40

0.65

-0.08

0.98

-0.21

-0.08

2.08

0.37

-1.27

1.95

-0.08

-0.71

-0.08

0.98

-0.89

-0.21

2.26

0.37

-0.29

0.73

-0.08

0.25

0.55

-0.59

-0.79

1.40

0.81

0.40

1.04

0.26

0.38

1.33

0.21

0.09

1.07

1.56

-0.19

0.71

-0.80

-0.19

-0.62

-1.13

-0.04

1.22

0.58

2.98

1.13

0.36

-0.31

-0.33

-0.61

0.00

0.82

0.41

2.29

-0.18

1.49

-1.50

-0.84

-0.43

-0.92

0.11

-0.69

1.01

0.38

2.35

Taiwan

0.07

-1.19

0.25

-1.15

0.43

-1.36

0.06

1.83

-0.14

0.44

-0.75

-0.44

0.37

-0.85

-0.42

-0.72

-0.64

0.04

1.26

Australia

0.00

0.48

-0.13

0.13

-0.65

-0.77

-0.28

0.30

0.51

-0.22

0.36

-0.21

-0.65

-0.35

-0.64

0.27

0.53

0.18

0.21

0.46

Norway

-0.02

China

-0.03

0.26

-0.29

-1.00

1.01

0.63

-0.33

0.80

-0.99

0.21

0.84

-1.02

0.21

1.09

-0.71

0.70

-0.58

-0.04

-1.42

0.19

-0.47

Japan

-0.05

2.45

-0.99

-0.98

1.12

-0.84

-0.42

0.10

0.31

-0.30

0.92

Peru

-0.06

-0.26

1.02

-0.36

-0.02

-0.36

-0.49

-1.02

0.99

0.12

-1.34

Turkey
Chile

-0.06

0.62

0.77

1.05

1.05

-0.53

-0.20

-0.68

-0.35

-0.25

-0.98

-0.07

-0.77

0.37

-0.08

1.34

0.54

-0.64

0.31

-1.24

-0.16

-0.10

Mexico

-0.10

-0.29

0.98

-0.51

-1.01

-0.19

0.69

-0.80

-1.19

-0.42

-0.62

South Korea

-0.14

1.04

-0.13

-0.41

-0.18

-0.68

-0.56

0.18

0.59

-0.35

-0.08

France

Oman

-0.14

-0.62

-0.54

-1.14

1.13

-0.80

0.40

0.17

0.29

0.65

0.34

Phillippines

-0.15

0.42

1.10

-0.39

-0.31

-0.96

-0.10

-1.27

-1.11

0.03

-0.32

Spain

-0.15

-0.75

-0.64

-0.86

-0.87

0.15

0.82

0.25

-1.09

1.86

-0.95

Kuwait

-0.15

-0.69

1.25

-0.04

1.08

1.08

-2.02

-0.54

2.38

-0.47

-1.62

Brazil

-0.16

-0.35

0.75

-0.53

1.32

-0.64

-0.71

-1.01

-0.12

-0.02

-0.01

Indonesia

-0.16

-0.84

0.85

0.86

1.41

-0.21

-0.67

-1.57

-0.83

-0.14

-0.39

India

-0.19

-0.66

1.02

0.48

-0.88

-0.77

-0.31

-1.34

-1.78

0.70

-0.63

Germany

-0.21

0.75

-0.85

-0.81

-0.44

-0.14

-1.08

0.64

-0.74

-0.25

1.23

Czech
Republic

-0.22

-0.57

-0.53

-0.44

0.53

-0.53

0.01

0.08

0.14

0.06

-0.02

Greece

-0.22

-1.06

-0.71

-0.46

0.02

-0.30

1.13

-0.19

-0.98

1.70

-1.88

Poland

-0.28

-0.27

-0.41

-0.27

0.41

-0.76

-1.39

-0.27

0.54

0.38

-0.33

Colombia

-0.28

-0.07

0.81

0.08

1.08

-0.11

-0.67

-0.89

-1.30

0.40

-1.43

Argentina

-0.33

-2.61

0.51

-1.09

-0.46

0.40

-0.45

-0.70

0.48

0.07

-0.98

Italy

-0.33

-0.49

-0.82

-1.02

-0.33

-0.04

-0.24

0.05

0.46

0.52

-1.28

Egypt

-0.38

-0.99

0.90

-0.58

2.48

-1.13

0.55

-1.58

-0.83

-0.46

-2.15

Russia

-0.74

-2.49

-0.36

0.04

-1.23

-1.08

-1.55

-0.94

1.26

0.31

-1.39

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC


Talent enabling environment: z score > 0 above average performance; z score < 0 below average performance

Talent enabling environment: Country comparison,


Singapore versus Russia
The comparison between Singapore and Russias talent enabling environment pillar
z-scores provides an interesting contrast and clearly shows in which areas Singapore
performs stronger, and where Russia needs to improve: customer service, labour
market flexibility, openness, prioritisation of the industry, general quality of human
resources and training.

Training
Recruitment Spare lacompetition bour market
capacity
and female
participation
10%

South Africa

41

Final Report - January 2015

Table 3.5: Travel & Tourism talent enabling environment


pillar z-scores, Singapore versus Russia
Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environment pillar z score

SINGAPORE

RUSSIA

Customer service

0.84

-2.49

Demographics

0.01

-0.36

Flexibility of labour market

2.04

0.04

Industry relative attractiveness

-1.21

-1.23

Openness

1.07

-1.08

Prioritisation of Travel & Tourism and existing Travel & Tourism skills base

0.63

-1.55

Quality of general human resources

1.41

-0.94

Recruitment competition

0.43

1.26

-0.28

0.31

Training

0.89

-1.39

Overall

0.58

-0.74

Spare labour market capacity and female participation

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC


Talent enabling environment: z score > 0 above average performance; z score < 0 below average performance

42

3.3

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

43

Final Report - January 2015

Table 3.6: Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance projections and
talent enabling environment ranks

Composite talent measure


The results of the composite Travel & Tourism talent score ranks, combining analysis
from both talent assessment methodologies, are presented in Table 3.6 overleaf. These
rankings can be interpreted to show how the extent of Travel & Tourism talent hotspots
or stretch points is expected to range between countries in future in terms of both the
volume (supply less demand) and quality of the talent enabling environment.

As Table 3.6 shows, the overall top and bottom 5 ranked countries are:
Top 5 ranked: UAE, Qatar, US, Barbados and Bahrain.
Bottom 5 ranked: Russia, Poland, Argentina, Italy and Greece.

Travel & Tourism: Talent demand-supply balance projections and


talent enabling environmental ranks
Combined

Methodology 1

Methodology 2

Talent demand Talent supply


projections
projections
(2014-2024)
(2014-2024)
Weights

100%

10%

10%

Talent
demand-supply balance
projections
(2014-2024)

Talent
enabling
environment

30%

50%

Rank difference:
Talent demand-supply
balance projections
minus talent enabling
environment

UAE

35

15

13

Qatar

34

12

22

21
10

US

17

22

16

In general, although not always, the top and bottom ranked countries rank
relatively strong or weak for the talent demand-supply balance projections and the
talent enabling environment scores.

Barbados

26

10

14

-4

Bahrain

39

17

-13

Canada

19

21

17

12

Switzerland

23

24

32

29

Table 3.6 also highlights differences in ranking results between the two
methodologies. There are notable differences reflecting the two opposing but
complementary concepts being measured: methodology 1 focuses on future
demand and supply volume projections, while methodology 2 is more about
current talent supply characteristics. In fact these differences help to explain some
of the feedback from WTTC Member companies on which
demand-supply balance projections were deemed to be too optimistic or
pessimistic: too optimistic - India, Germany, Brazil and Indonesia (their talent
enabling environment ranks are much weaker than their demand-supply balance
ranks); too pessimistic Taiwan and Thailand (their talent enabling environment
ranks are stronger than their demand-supply balance ranks).

Australia

27

22

-16

Norway

39

23

-20

UK

10

13

29

26

17

Morocco

11

31

11

13

18

-5

Austria

12

42

29

22
-7

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC


Talent demand: 1 = best rank (weakest demand growth); 46 = worst rank (strongest demand growth)
Talent supply: 1 = best rank (strongest supply growth); 46 = worst rank (weakest supply growth)
Talent demand-supply balance: 1 = best rank (largest relative trend balance surplus); 46 = worst rank
(largest relative trend balance deficit)
Talent enabling environment: 1 = best rank; 46 = worst rank

South Africa

13

25

17

12

19

Malaysia

14

36

14

34

29
12

Bermuda

15

11

34

25

13

Saudi Arabia

16

44

21

16

Singapore

17

26

31

38

34

Philippines

18

29

32

-31

China

19

10

25

14

24

-10

Netherlands

20

16

28

31

15

16

Sweden

21

28

32

39

31

India

22

21

10

37

-35

Japan

23

45

18

25

-7

Costa Rica

24

42

15

41

11

30

Brazil

25

18

18

35

-26

Chile

26

15

23

20

28

-8

Oman

27

43

33

20

13

Mexico

28

33

13

19

29

-10

Indonesia

29

22

19

11

36

-25

Germany

30

41

38

-31

France

31

12

30

24

31

-7

Colombia

32

27

42

-34

Thailand

33

46

37

46

10

36

Spain

34

33

23

33

-10

Egypt

35

30

45

-40

South Korea

36

44

27

30

-3

Turkey

37

45

36

27

Kuwait

38

40

30

34

-4

Taiwan

39

32

38

44

21

23

Peru

40

41

16

42

26

16

Czech Republic

41

43

28

39

-11

Greece

42

14

36

35

40

-5

Italy

43

24

35

37

44

-7

Argentina

44

38

20

40

43

-3

Poland

45

37

40

45

41

Russia

46

20

46

43

46

-3

44

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Figure 3.7 below plots results from both methodologies on a single chart. A number of
observations can be made:
Almost no countries are located in the ideal (from a Travel & Tourism
perspective) bottom right quadrant these would be countries with a
projected talent trend surplus and strong talent enabling environment. This
is indicative of the general talent challenge facing the sector globally.
Most countries are located to the left of the y-axis (indicating a projected
talent balance deficit), but have a wide range of talent enabling
environment ranks (although this is to be expected because by default a
ranking measure will have low and high ratings).
The least ideal countries, from a sector talent perspective, are those in the
top left quadrant. These are countries with a projected talent trend deficit
and weak talent enabling environment. They include those countries which
rank weakest for the combined composite ranks (column two of Table 3.6)
such as Russia, Poland, Italy, Greece and Argentina.
Countries such as Singapore and Switzerland, while also having projected
talent trend deficits, at least have the advantage of top rankings for their
Travel & Tourism talent enabling environment. That said, if the Travel &
Tourism sector in these countries struggles to exploit this strong talent
enabling environment for example if it is unable to hire the workforce that
it needs the enabling environment will be of limited benefit to the sector.

Fig 3.7: Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance


projections and talent enabling environment ranks
Travel & Tourism: Talent trend and talent enabling environment
TOP RANK -------- Talent enabling environment -------- BOTTOM RANK

Travel & Tourism: Talent trend and talent enabling environment


TALENT PROJECTED TREND DEFICIT
WEAK TALENT ENABLING
ENVIRONMENT

50

Italy

Russia

Egypt

45

Argentina Greece
Poland

40

India
35

Brazil

30
25

Peru

China
20

Taiwan

Bahrain

15

Thailand

10

US
Singapore
Switzerland

TALENT PROJECTED TREND SURPLUS


STRONG TALENT ENABLING ENVIRONMENT

0
-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

DEFICIT ---------- Talent balance projected trend (2014-2024) ---------- SURPLUS

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

4.0

Final Report - January 2015

45

Economic cost impact of talent gaps


and deficiencies
Talent challenges directly affect the sustainable growth of Travel & Tourism as well as
the day-to-day operations and bottom-line of companies. Overall impacts of these
challenges are manifested in a number of ways, including:

Below-potential growth and lower employment

Reduced investment and less innovation

Upward pressure on wages leading to higher operating costs and reduced profits,
which combined with other factors would lower productivity

Eroded competitiveness and inferior customer service and quality standards

Higher recruitment and advertising costs, higher training costs, reduced returns
to training and increased workload on and lower morale amongst existing staff, all
resulting from high staff turnover

46

4.1

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Economic cost impact assumptions


It is not possible, or within the scope of this study, to model all of the above impacts
in detail. But what can be done, in a stylised way, is to combine the principle of these
impacts, with the results of the talent balance projection and enabling environment
analysis, to arrive at assumptions to model the macroeconomic cost impact of Travel &
Tourism talent gaps and assumptions. These assumptions are summarised in Table 4.1
overleaf and described next.

Employment adjustment: The impact of projected talent trend deficits is


modelled by reducing Travel & Tourism direct employment growth, in each year to
2024, for each country projected to experience a talent trend deficit. This assumes
that the sector would struggle to supply its talent volume requirement and
Travel & Tourism would therefore grow at a rate below its full potential. The precise
assumption used is to take the minimum projected talent trend deficit figure for the
medium and long-term, adjusted by a factor of 0.75, and deduct this from baseline
direct employment growth. The less than full adjustment factor of 0.75 assumes
that Travel & Tourism would find some way to mitigate part of the projected talent
trend deficit, but not the entire deficit. Some of the feedback from WTTC member
countries has also been incorporated directly into fine-tuning the employment
impact assumptions in terms of which talent balance projections were deemed to
be too optimistic and too pessimistic.
Labour market productivity adjustment: The impact of a weak Travel & Tourism
talent enabling environment, as well as the pressures caused by projected
talent trend deficits, are modelled by reducing Travel & Tourism direct labour
productivity growth relative to the baseline in each year to 2024. Only countries
ranked in the bottom half of the composite talent ranks have their productivity
adjusted. Within this group of countries, the bottom third (ranked 39 to 46) have
an annual average productivity growth adjustment of -1.5 percentage points
compared to the baseline, the middle third (ranked 31 to 38) a -1.0 percentage
point adjustment and the upper third (ranked 23 to 30) an adjustment of -0.5
percentage points. This reduction in labour market productivity growth captures
a host of impacts: reduced bottom-line profitability, reduced innovation, eroded
competitiveness and negative effects from high staff turnover.
Indirect and induced impact adjustments: The impact of talent gaps and
deficiencies is primarily modelled in terms of its impact on direct Travel & Tourism
employment and GDP (the latter via effects on both employment and labour
market productivity). But this will also affect the indirect and induced contribution
of Travel & Tourism via multiplier effects. This impact is therefore modelled by
assuming the same employment and GDP multipliers as the baseline scenario
for each country, and applying the same indirect and induced labour productivity
levels (the latter should not be directly affected by talent challenges in
Travel & Tourism). There could be an additional impact on Travel & Tourisms
indirect contribution via reduced investment but this would be difficult to model
and derive an impact assumption from the talent analysis.

47

Final Report - January 2015

Table 4.1: Economic cost impact


assumptions of Travel & Tourism
talent gaps and deficiencies

Travel & Tourism: Country economic cost


impact of talent gaps and deficiencies
assumptions

(2014-2024 pp adjustment to annual average growth versus


baseline)
Employment

Labour
productivity

Thailand

-2.3

-1.0

Poland

-1.5

-1.5

Taiwan

-1.5

-1.5

Russia

-1.5

-1.5

Argentina

-1.3

-1.5

Italy

-1.3

-1.5

Peru

-1.2

-1.5

Turkey

-1.5

-1.0

Czech Republic

-1.0

-1.5

Greece

-0.8

-1.5

Costa Rica

-1.5

-0.5

France

-0.7

-1.0

South Korea

-0.7

-1.0

Colombia

-0.6

-1.0

Spain

-0.7

-1.0

Oman

-1.1

-0.5

Kuwait

-0.6

-1.0

Malaysia

-1.3

0.0

Morocco

-1.3

0.0

Sweden

-1.2

0.0

Singapore

-1.2

0.0

Switzerland

-1.2

0.0

Saudi Arabia

-1.2

0.0

Japan

-0.6

-0.5

Indonesia

-0.6

-0.5

Bermuda

-1.0

0.0

Egypt

0.0

-1.0

Chile

-0.5

-0.5

Austria

-1.0

0.0

Bahrain

-1.0

0.0

Brazil

-0.5

-0.5

Mexico

-0.4

-0.5

UK

-0.8

0.0

Germany

-0.3

-0.5

UAE

-0.7

0.0

Canada

-0.7

0.0

Netherlands

-0.7

0.0

South Africa

-0.7

0.0

Barbados

-0.6

0.0

Qatar

-0.5

0.0

China

-0.4

0.0

US

-0.4

0.0

Australia

-0.4

0.0

India

-0.4

0.0

Norway

0.0

0.0

Philippines

0.0

0.0

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

48

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

4.2

Final Report - January 2015

49

Economic cost impact results: 14 million jobs


and nearly US$610 billion GDP by 2024
The impact results of Travel & Tourism talent gaps and deficiencies are presented in
Table 4.2 (global impacts) and Table 4.3 overleaf (individual country impacts). Note global
impacts relate to the sum of impacts for the 46 countries covered by this study. Recall
these countries account for 81% and 88% of direct world Travel & Tourism employment
and GDP respectively, so capture the majority of the global sector.

In terms of direct impacts, talent gaps and deficiencies could cost the global
economy:
5.5 million jobs and US$270 billion GDP (measured in 2013 prices and
exchange rates). This is compared to the baseline projected level in 2024.
Cumulative direct GDP impacts would be even larger over a ten-year period.
This is equivalent to lowering the level of global direct Travel & Tourism
employment by 4.4% compared to the baseline projected level in 2024, and
global direct Travel & Tourism GDP by 8.0% (the combined effect of lower
employment and lower productivity).
Annual average global direct Travel & Tourism employment growth to 2024
would slow from 2.0% in the baseline scenario to 1.6%, and GDP long-run
average growth from 4.2% to 3.3%.

14.1 million jobs and around US$610 billion GDP (measured in 2013 prices
and exchange rates) compared to the baseline projected level in 2024 (again
cumulative total GDP impacts would be even larger over a ten-year period).

This does not mean that the demand-orientated forecasts in WTTCs


annual economic impact research are over-optimistic or invalid, but
stress the need for some countries to take greater action to tackle talent
challenges in order to realise the growth potential of their
Travel & Tourism sectors.

Table 4.2: World economic cost impact of talent


gaps and deficiencies
Travel & Tourism: World economic cost
impact of talent gaps and deficiencies
(2024 versus baseline)

UNITS

DIRECT

TOTAL

Millions

-5.5

-14.1

-4.4%

-4.0%

US$ bn 2013 prices


& exchanges rates

-270

-607

-8.0%

-5.5%

T&T employment

T&T GDP

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

In terms of total impacts, adding the indirect and induced impacts, talent gaps
and deficiencies could cost the global economy:

This is equivalent to lowering the level of global total Travel & Tourism
employment by 4.0% compared to the baseline projected level in 2024,
and global direct Travel & Tourism GDP by 5.5% (this relative impact is
lower than the direct GDP impact because indirect and induced labour
productivity is unchanged).

In terms of individual country impacts:


Largest relative impacts: Relative to the size of their respective Travel &
Tourism total economic contribution in 2024, countries most negatively
impacted by talent gaps and deficiencies, in employment and GDP terms,
include: Thailand, Russia, Poland, Taiwan, Italy and Turkey. Polands annual
average direct Travel & Tourism employment growth to 2024 would slow
from 3.2% in the baseline scenario to 1.7%. Taiwans annual average direct
Travel & Tourism GDP growth to 2024 would slow from 3.3% in the baseline
scenario to 0.3%.
Largest absolute impacts: Given the size of Travel & Tourism markets in
each country, the largest absolute total job impacts would occur in China,
Thailand, India, Indonesia and US, and the largest absolute GDP impacts in
China, US, Italy, Russia and France.
It is evident from Table 4.3 that the impacts for the majority of countries
are negative. Although the relative scale of impact varies from a relatively
negligible to a sizable impact, with those countries facing sizable negative
impacts most at risk from talent gaps and deficiencies.

50

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Travel & Tourism: Country economic cost impact of talent gaps and deficiencies
(2024 versus baseline)
Total T&T employment

Total T&T GDP

US$ bn 2013 prices & exchange rates unless stated

000s unless stated

Impact

% Impact

2024
baseline

Impact

% Impact

2024
baseline

China

-3,773

Thailand

-20%

8,255

China

-78

Thailand

-23%

137

Thailand

-1,617

Russia

-14%

4,647

US

-76

Poland

-19%

45

India

-1,584

Taiwan

-14%

814

Italy

-43

Taiwan

-18%

36

Indonesia

-647

Poland

-14%

1,027

Russia

-36

Italy

-17%

251

US

-647

Costa Rica

-14%

355

France

-32

Russia

-17%

216

Russia

-640

Turkey

-14%

3,047

Thailand

-32

Turkey

-17%

158

Brazil

-467

Italy

-12%

3,094

UK

-28

Argentina

-16%

66

Turkey

-412

Argentina

-12%

2,219

Japan

-27

Peru

-16%

37

Mexico

-385

Malaysia

-12%

2,648

Turkey

-26

Costa Rica

-15%

10

Italy

-372

Morocco

-12%

2,429

Spain

-24

Czech Rep.

-14%

24

UK

-352

Sweden

-11%

716

Brazil

-19

Greece

-13%

53

Malaysia

-312

Peru

-11%

1,676

Mexico

-17

Oman

-12%

10

Morocco

-281

Singapore

-11%

354

Indonesia

-11

Malaysia

-12%

84

Argentina

-265

Switzerland

-11%

561

Argentina

-11

Morocco

-12%

36

Japan

-264

Saudi Arabia

-11%

599

Malaysia

-10

Sweden

-11%

87

France

-219

Oman

-10%

116

Sweden

-10

Singapore

-11%

51

Spain

-192

Bermuda

-10%

Canada

-9

Switzerland

-11%

57

Peru

-189

Austria

-9%

674

South Korea

-9

Saudi Arabia

-11%

53

Poland

-140

Czech Rep.

-9%

577

India

-9

France

-10%

310

Taiwan

-111

Bahrain

-9%

121

Poland

-8

South Korea

-10%

92

South Africa

-111

Greece

-8%

846

Germany

-8

Bermuda

-10%

South Korea

-104

UK

-8%

4,662

Australia

-8

Spain

-10%

251

Colombia

-92

UAE

-7%

696

Greece

-7

Austria

-9%

68

Canada

-86

France

-7%

3,262

Taiwan

-7

Colombia

-9%

31

Sweden

-81

Canada

-7%

1,286

Austria

-6

Bahrain

-9%

Greece

-67

Netherlands

-7%

932

Switzerland

-6

Kuwait

-9%

13

Saudi Arabia

-65

South Korea

-6%

1,624

Peru

-6

UK

-8%

375

Australia

-64

South Africa

-6%

1,774

Saudi Arabia

-6

Japan

-7%

381

Switzerland

-61

Spain

-6%

3,077

Singapore

-6

Indonesia

-7%

158

Netherlands

-61

Colombia

-6%

1,494

Netherlands

-4

UEA

-7%

51

Australia

-60

Barbados

-6%

54

Morocco

-4

Canada

-7%

136

Germany

-55

Japan

-6%

4,660

UEA

-3

Netherlands

-7%

65

Czech Rep.

-54

Indonesia

-5%

11,957

Czech Rep.

-3

Chile

-7%

39

Costa Rica

-48

Kuwait

-5%

135

South Africa

-3

South Africa

-6%

50

UAE

-48

Chile

-5%

801

Colombia

-3

Brazil

-6%

309

Singapore

-40

Qatar

-5%

121

Chile

-2

Barbados

-6%

Chile

-38

Brazil

-4%

10,684

Egypt

-2

Mexico

-6%

289

Oman

-12

China

-4%

93,039

Costa Rica

-2

Qatar

-5%

28

Bahrain

-11

Mexico

-4%

9,602

Qatar

-1

Egypt

-4%

51

Egypt

-10

US

-4%

17,560

Oman

-1

Germany

-4%

198

Kuwait

-7

Australia

-4%

1,636

Kuwait

-1

China

-4%

1,933

Qatar

-6

India

-4%

43,837

Bahrain

-1

US

-4%

2,056

Barbados

-3

Germany

-2%

2,187

Barbados

Australia

-4%

213

Bermuda

-1

Egypt

0%

3,673

Bermuda

India

-4%

239

Norway

Norway

0%

43

Phillippines

Phillippines

0%

54

Norway

Norway

0%

224

Phillippines

Phillippines

0%

5,491

Annex A

Table 4.3: Country economic cost impact of talent gaps and deficiencies

51

Literature review bibliography


Australia Government 2012: Tackling labour and skills issues in the tourism and hospitality industry:
A guide to developing tourism employment plans: https://www.austrade.gov.au/Tourism/
Policies/National-long-term-strategy/Working-groups/Labour-and-Skills
British Columbia Labour Market Strategy: http://www.jtst.gov.bc.ca/skills_for_growth/
British Columbia Tourism Labour Market Strategy: https://www.go2hr.ca/research/bc-tourismlabour-market-strategy
Canadian Tourism Research Institute The Future of Canadas Tourism Sector: http://cthrc.
ca/en/research_publications/~/media/Files/CTHRC/Home/research_publications/labour_market_
information/Supply_Demand/SupplyDemand_Report_Current_EN.ashx
CEDEFOP Future skills supply and demand in Europe
CEDEFOP Panorama series 115 Trends and Skills Needs in Tourism: http://www.cedefop.
europa.eu/EN/Files/5161_en.pdf
E&Y Tracking global trends: How six key developments are shaping the business world Demographic shifts transform the global workforce
India Hospitality Review - Shortage of Skilled Manpower in Hospitality Industry: http://www.
indiahospitalityreview.com/article/shortage-skilled-manpower-hospitality-industry
Local Governments engagement in tourism Australia (2006): http://www.lga.sa.gov.au/
webdata/resources/files/Local_Governments_Engagement_in_Tourism_-_July_2006.pdf
Manpower Group - 2013 Talent Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.com/
wps/wcm/connect/587d2b45-c47a-4647-a7c1-e7a74f68fb85/2013_Talent_Shortage_Survey_
Results_US_high+res.pdf?MOD=AJPERES
Manpower Group - 2014 Talent Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.co.uk/
media/137404/2014_talent_shortage_wp_us2.pdf
McKinsey and Company The State of Human Capital 2012: http://www.mckinsey.com/client_
service/organization/expertise/human_capital
McKinsey Global Institute - Talent tensions ahead: A CEO briefing, Richard Dobbs, Susan Lund,
and Anu Madgavkar: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/talent_tensions_
ahead_a_ceo_briefing
Navigating the next phase of Asias tourism: http://www.yoursingapore.com/TravelRave/
resources/TravelRave2013-Highlights-Report_Navigating-the-next-wave-in-Asia%27-Tourism.pdf
New Zealand Tourism and Hospitality Workforce Strategy: http://www.tianz.org.nz/content/
library/TourismHospWkbkLR1.pdf and Shortage of Skilled Manpower in Hospitality Industry,
Kamlesh Barot, President, FHRAI magazine
New Zealand Tourism Skills Shortage Report: http://www.dol.govt.nz/PDFs/industry-profiletourism.pdf
Rwanda Development Board Rwanda Skill Survey 2012 T&H Report: http://www.lmis.gov.
rw/scripts/publication/reports/Tourism.pdf
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of
Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of Tourism Workforce In the OIC
Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
Talent shortage becomes major bottleneck for Hainan tourism development: http://www.
whatsonsanya.com/news-18722.html
The Boston Consulting Group: Creating people advantage 2011 - Time to Act: HR certainties
in uncertain times: http://www.bcg.com/documents/file87639.pdf
The Hospitality Talent Gap, China Business Review: http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/thehospitality-talent-gap/
UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.
org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insights-tourism
UK State of Nation Report 2013: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/reports/state-of-thenation-hospitality-and-tourism
UNDP 2013 Human Development Report: http://hdr.undp.org/en/2013-report
World Economic Forum Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013: http://www.weforum.
org/reports/travel-tourism-competitiveness-report-2013

52

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Annex B

Analytical methodologies to assess talent


Annex B provides an overview of the quantitative approaches used to assess


country-by-country Travel & Tourism talent demand, supply and imbalances, and
the talent enabling environment in each country.

The two main approaches, which are then combined to produce a composite
country ranking, are:
1.Talent demand-supply balance projections; and
2.Talent enabling environment analysis.

Final Report - January 2015

53

The 46 countries covered by Oxford Economics Global Talent service is the same
list of countries covered in this research study. This geographically diverse list
encompasses all of the worlds major economies, including: the G8, the BRICs,
other industrialised nations, other emergers such as Mexico, UAE, South Africa,
Indonesia and Singapore, and economies where Travel & Tourism is a particularly
important sector like Barbados, Morocco, Turkey and Thailand.
The 46 countries account for 81% and 88% of direct world Travel & Tourism
employment and GDP respectively.

Travel & Tourism talent demand projections

Methodology 1: Talent demand-supply balance


projections

For each country, aggregate industry talent demand projections are taken
straight from the direct Travel & Tourism employment series from WTTCs annual
economic impact research.

Source of demand and supply projections

The breakdown of Travel & Tourism talent demand by occupation and highest
education attainment level is based on the weighted sector matrices from Oxford
Economics Global Talent service. This is necessary because Travel & Tourism
is not an officially classified statistical industry sector on its own, but instead is a
combination of multiple industry sectors. According to published country TSAs,
the majority of Travel & Tourism direct employment is in the following industries:
hotels & catering, transportation, wholesale & retail and other personal services.
The precise weights used for each country are based on rounded average data
from eight diverse countries which published detailed TSA Travel & Tourism
employment data. This allocates an employment weight of 55% to hotels &
catering and an equal 15% weighting to the three other sectors. The occupation
and highest education attainment breakdown from each of these four sectors,
taken from Oxford Economics Global Talent service, is then weighted to produce
the breakdowns for Travel & Tourism as a whole.

The underpinning evidence base for talent demand-supply balance projections


are WTTCs annual economic impact research and Oxford Economics Global
Talent service. A brief background on both is provided next.

WTTC annual economic impact research: WTTCs annual economic


impact research covers historic series and forecasts for simulated Tourism
Satellite Accounts (TSA) for 184 countries from 1988 to 2024. This provides a
comprehensive assessment of the direct economic size of the Travel & Tourism
sector (in GDP and employment terms), individual segments (e.g. business
versus leisure and domestic versus international) and the sectors links with other
sectors and broader economic contribution in terms of its indirect and induced
contribution. By using the direct Travel & Tourism employment series from
WTTCs annual economic impact research, this ensures consistency between this
research and WTTCs published employment series for Travel & Tourism.

Oxford Economics Global Talent service: Oxford Economics Global Talent


service provides decision-makers with pioneering global research into how major
economic, business, and market shifts are transforming the global need for talent,
along with how demographic, education, and technology trends are reshaping
the future supply of talent. The full service covers three interlocking components:
(1) data and forecasts on talent, employment, business, economic, and
demographic trends in 46 countries and 18 industry sectors; (2) corporate insights
and strategies for managing talent in a time of business transformation; and (3)
preferential access to Oxford Economics team of economists, business analysts,
and information services. In other words the Global Talent service is a rich source
of both talent demand and supply historic data and projections. Talent demand
information comprises a breakdown of employment by industry, occupation
and education attainment level. Talent supply information encompasses
demographics and migration, labour supply and participation rates, a breakdown
of the talent supply stock by broad education attainment level, and a breakdown of
graduate supply by broad subject.

Travel & Tourism talent supply projections


Aggregate Travel & Tourism talent supply projections are created from weighted
education attainment level labour supply forecasts from Oxford Economics
Global Talent service. These forecasts encompass a range of supply dynamics
including demographics, migration, labour participation rates and shifts in
education participation and attainment.

The weights for each education attainment level are based on the education
attainment breakdown of each countrys Travel & Tourism employment / talent
demand series. To give an example, the weights for the US in 2014 are as follows:
college level (50%), high school level (47%) and below high school level (3%). The
weights for the UAE are: college level (14%), high school level (54%) and below
high school level (32%). Although the weights should not necessarily be fixed
but instead vary in line with changes in the structure of demand over time, actual
changes in demand over the period under consideration are relatively small.
Varying with weights would make minimal difference to the Travel & Tourism talent
supply projections.

54

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance projections


Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance projections are calculated as: the
percentage point difference in the projected growth in Travel & Tourism talent supply
minus the projected growth in Travel & Tourism talent demand.
This measures whether the Travel & Tourism talent balance position will get better
(a positive percentage growth difference) or worse over time (a negative percentage
growth difference).
To be clear, methodology 1 does not quantify Travel & Tourisms talent demandsupply balance today. This can only be obtained by undertaking a very detailed
survey of the sector with a large sample size.
Methodology 1 instead measures whether the talent balance position will get better
or worse over time versus today by comparing growth rates in the demand for and
supply of talent.
Methodology 1 also does not produce a detailed, quantified projection of the talent
demand, supply and balance of specific Travel & Tourism job roles and sectors,
e.g. for pilots and chefs, or hotels and air transport. This would require much more
granular data than is currently available from the two main evidence bases used.

Methodology 2: Talent enabling environment analysis


Methodology 1 provides a robust high-level and forward-looking snapshot of


Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply, and whether the talent balance trend
will be a deficit or surplus.

To complement methodology 1, methodology 2 considers in more depth current


talent supply characteristics which are identified from literature as important to
the sector. These characteristics are converted into an overall talent enabling
environment rank (in a similar way to how global indices like the World Economic
Forum competitiveness index are compiled).

Talent enabling environment pillar framework


The framework for assessing each countrys Travel & Tourism talent enabling
environment is based around the following pillars. These pillars are informed by
the general literature review (as opposed to any specific report which defines
characteristic of the sectors talent enabling environment), pillars used in
economy-wide talent indices and practically also by the actual data which exists.
A pillar for education is not directly included because education attainment levels
of labour supply are analysed under methodology 1.

A brief description is provided to explain the rationale for each pillar and how it relates
to a stronger or weaker Travel & Tourism enabling talent environment.

Final Report - January 2015

55

1. Customer service: Countries with a stronger customer service base an


essential skill for Travel & Tourism are assumed to have a more enabling
talent environment for the sector.
2. Demographics: Given the structural characteristics of the
Travel & Tourism workforce, countries with more youthful workforces and
a lower share of workers nearing retirement are associated with a more
enabling talent environment.
3. Flexibility of labour market: A more flexible labour market is positively
correlated with a more enabling talent environment.
4. Industry relative attractiveness: Countries where Travel & Tourism jobs
are perceived to be relatively less attractive than the economy-average job
proxied by the share of jobs in higher versus lower grade and paid roles are assumed to have a less enabling talent environment.
5. Openness: More open economies, in terms of the ease of hiring
foreign, high quality labour, are associated with a more enabling talent
environment.
6. Prioritisation of Travel & Tourism and existing Travel & Tourism
skills base: Countries where Travel & Tourism as a sector is prioritised
by government and the education & training system - and where there
is a strong tradition in Travel & Tourism and meeting its talent needs, is
assumed to be a positive characteristic for the enabling talent environment.
7. Quality of general human resources: A general high quality of human
resources across the economy is positively correlated with a more enabling
talent environment.
8. Recruitment competition: Countries where Travel & Tourism faces
stiff recruitment competition from other industries requiring similar
types of talent, such as retail, is assumed to result in a less enabling
talent environment. Forecast growth in Travel & Tourism employment is
benchmarked against retail employment growth.
9. Spare labour market capacity and female participation: A tight labour
market, as measured by the unemployment rate, and low female labour
participation rates, are associated with a less enabling talent environment
due to the lack of available domestic talent and under-utilised female talent
(recall Travel & Tourism in general is more female-orientated).
10. Training: Economies where company training of its employees is
more frequent and of higher quality is associated with a more enabling
talent environment.

56

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Talent enabling environment pillar proxy variables


In an ideal situation, a single perfect variable would exist to quantify and measure
a countrys talent performance for each pillar. Instead, as is the case with the
majority of global indices, especially those without a large bespoke survey to
complement secondary data, it is necessary to:
Identify proxy variables that relate closest to these pillars;
These variables must have data available across all or most of 46 countries
covered by this study48; and
There must be an unambiguous ranking order for each variable from a
best to worst score.

The full list of proxy variables used is summarised in Table 3.1 overleaf.

As evident from the table, across the ten pillars a total of 25 variables are utilised.
The main data sources are: UN, OECD, International Labor Organisation (ILO),
World Economic Forum Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report (with several
variables taken from the indexs human resource pillar), Oxford Economics Global
Talent database, INSEAD Global Talent Competitiveness Index and the Heidrick &
Struggles Global Talent Index (compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit).

The variables are a mixture of hard statistical figures compiled by statistic


agencies and executive survey questions. While the latter are arguably subjective,
there are no alternatives and their inclusion is preferable as opposed to excluding
an important dimension of Travel & Tourisms enabling talent environment.
Data for each variable are standardised using z-scores, as is done for many
global indices. Z-scores are preferable to ranking on a variable-by variable
basis because the latter approach potentially exaggerates differences between
countries because countries falling within a large rank range may actually differ
little in value terms.

Table A.1: Talent enabling environment pillar proxy variables


Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environmental pillar variables and sources
Pillar and variable
Customer service

Degree of customer orientation

To include as broad a range of relevant variables as possible, some estimation of data was required to fill gaps. This involve using data for similar
countries where it existed or estimating based on other variables where full country data exists.

Year

Source

Additional detail

Executive opinion survey question: How well do companies


in your country treat customers?

2013

WEF T&T Competitiveness Report

2014
2014
2014
2014

2014-2024

UN
UN
UN
UN
UN
UN
UN

2013

WEF T&T Competitiveness Report

Executive opinion survey question: How would you


charicterize the hiring and firing of workers in your country?

2014

Oxford Economics Global Talent

High level occupations sum of executives, professional


and technical & administrative roles

Openness
Net migration % total population
International migrant stock % total population
Ease of hiring foreign labour

2008 - 2012
2013
2013

OECD
UN
WEF T&T Competitiveness Report

Qualified labour inflow

2013

INSEAD Global Talent


Competitiveness Index

Executive opinion survey question from WEF: Does your


country retain and attract talented people?

Prioritisation of T&T and existing T&T skills base


Government prioritisation of T&T industry

2013

WEF T&T Competitiveness Report

Executive opinion survey question: How much of a priority is the


development of the T&T industry for the government of your country?

2014

WTTC/Oxford Economics Annual


Economic Impact Research

Quality of general human resources


INSEAD Global Talent Competitiveness
Index overall score

2013

INSEAD Global Talent


Competitiveness Index

Heidrick & Struggles Global Talent Index overall score


Quality of labour force

2015
2015

Heidrick & Struggles Global Talent Index


Heidrick & Struggles Global Talent Index

Talent environment

2015

Heidrick & Struggles Global Talent Index

Availability of qualified labour

2013

WEF T&T Competitiveness Report


(Sub-pillar measure)

Recruitment competition
Wholesale & retail employment demand growth
Wholesale & retail employment demand growth
pp difference T&T employment demand growth

2014 - 2024
2014 - 2024

Oxford Economics Global Talent


Oxford Economics Global Talent

Latest
available

ILO

Female labour force participation rate pp difference total labour force participation rate

Latest
available

ILO

Unemployment rate

2014

ILO

Training
Extent of staff training

2013

WEF T&T Competitiveness Report

Executive opinion survey question: To what extent do companies


in your country invest in training and employee development?

Local availability specialised research & training

2013

WEF T&T Competitiveness Report

Executive opinion survey question: In your country, to what


extent are high-quality, specialized training services available?

Demographics
15-24% total population
15-39% total population
15-64% total population
50-64% 15-64 population
15-24% total population pp change in share
15-39% total population pp change in share
pp change in 15-64% total population
Flexibility of labour market
Hiring and firing practices

Industry relative attractiveness


High level occupation share T&T minus
whole economy

T&T direct employment % total economy


employment

Spare labour market capacity & female participation


Female labour force participation rate

48

57

Final Report - January 2015

Executive opinion survey question: To what extent does labour


regulation in your country limit the ability to hire foreign labor?

Composite sub-index comprising: researchers and technicians in


R&D (UNESCO, World Bank, EIU); quality of workforce, language
skills of workforce, technical skills of workforce and local managers
(EIU business environment rankings)
Composite sub-index comprising: R&D % GDP, degree of
restrictiveness of labour laws and wage regulation (EIU business
environmet rankings): protection of intellectual and private property and meritocratic remuneration (EIU risk briefing)

58

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Talent enabling environment pillar equal weights


To produce an overall Travel & Tourism talent enabling environment z-score and
rank, it is necessary to weight each of the pillars.

As is the case with most composite indices like this, there are no hard and
fast rules to inform what the value of these weights should be. This is in terms
of whether they should be equal or vary, and whether they should be the same
for each country.

The standard technical practice, and most transparent and least controversial
approach, is to uniformly apply equal weights to all pillars and all countries. This is
the approach adopted for this study.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) larger weight for openness and labour
market flexibility: A larger weight (50%) is applied to the openness pillar for
the following countries only: Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi
Arabia. This reflects the much greater importance and role of foreign labour
in these countries, especially for Travel & Tourism, and consequently the
reduced importance of domestic talent measures. A larger weight of 20%
is also applied to the labour market flexibility pillar as this is closely linked
to the openness pillar.
Gulf Cooperation Council smaller weight for openness and labour
market flexibility: Although foreign labour is more important today in GCC
countries, many of these countries have aspirations to reduce the foreign
share of the workforce. Thus it is useful to analyse their talent enabling
environment today with a zero weight for the openness and labour market
flexibility pillars. In truth the effect of foreign labour permeates across other
pillars customer service, demographics, industry relative attractiveness
and quality of general human resources so it is difficult with the available
data to make a true assessment of the talent enabling environment in GCC
countries related solely to the national workforce.

Table A.2: Talent enabling environment pillar weights


Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environmental pillar
Weights

Customer service

10.0%

Demographics

10.0%

Flexibility of labour market

10.0%

Industry relative attactiveness

10.0%

Openness

10.0%

Prioritisation of T&T and existing T&T skill base

10.0%

Quality of human resources

10.0%

Recruitment competition

10.0%

Spare labour market capacity and female participation

10.0%

Training

10.0%

Sum

100.0%

59

Sensitivity analysis country ranks are compared to the core equal weighting
rank results in Annex C, highlighting which country ranks change by most and
in which direction.

Composite talent measure combining results of methodologies


1 and 2
As methodologies 1 and 2 are complementary, their respective rankings can be
weighted as per below to produce an overall Travel & Tourism composite talent rank.
Like for the talent enabling environment measure, there are no obvious rules to inform
the choice of these weights so an uncontroversial approach to weight each equally is
applied.

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC

Weight for methodology 1: Talent demand-supply balance projections = 50%


Talent demand projections weight = 10%
Talent supply projections weight = 10%

Talent enabling environment pillar weights sensitivity analysis


That said, on the basis of the literature review, and known differences in talent
markets across countries, a case can be made for applying non-equal pillar
weights and different pillar weights for different groups of countries.

In Annex C, sensitivity analysis is presented for the following:


Non-equal pillar weights: Larger weights are applied to the following
pillars on the basis of their implied relative importance from the literature
review: demographics, industry relative attractiveness, openness and
recruitment competition.

Talent demand-supply balance projections weight = 30%


Weight for methodology 2: Talent enabling environment analysis = 50%

The country rankings developed, from combining methodologies 1 and 2 to


produce an overall Travel & Tourism composite talent rank, can be interpreted
to show how the extent of Travel & Tourism talent hotspots or stretch points is
expected to range between countries in future in terms of both the volume (supply
less demand) and quality of the talent enabling environment.

60

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Annex C

Travel & Tourism:


Customer Demographics
service

Flexibility Industry
of labour relative
market
attractiviness

Talent enabling environment pillar variable z scores


Openness

Prioritisation of T&T Quality of general human resources


and existing T&T
skills base

Recruitment
competition

Spare labour market capacity Training


and female participation

Degree of
customer
orientation

15-24%
total population

15-39%
total population

15-64%
total population

50-64%
15-64
population

pp change Hiring
in 15-64% and firing
total pop- practices
ulation

High level
occupation share
T&T minus
whole
economy

Net
migration
% total
population

International
migrant
stock %
total population

Ease of
hiring
foreign
labour

Qualified
labour
inflow

Government prioritisation
of T&T
industry

T&T direct
employment
% total
economy
employment

INSEAD
Global
Talent
Competitiveness
Index
overall
score

Heidrick &
Struggles
Global
Talent
Index
overall
score

Quality
of labour
force

Talent environmet

Availability
of qualified
labour

Wholesale
& retail
wmployment
demand
growth

Wholesale
& retail
wmployment
demand
growth pp
difference
T&T employment
demand
growth

Female labour force


participation rate

Female labour force


participation rate pp
difference
total labour
force
participation rate

Unemployment rate

Extent
of staff
training

Local
availability
specialised
research &
training

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

20142024

2013

2014

20082012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2013

2015

2015

2015

2013

20142024

20142024

Latest
available

Latest
available

2014

2013

2013

WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report

UN

UN

UN

UN

UN

WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report

Oxford
Economics
Global
Talent

OECD

UN

WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report

INSEAD
Global
Talent
Competitiveness
Index

WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report

WTTC/
Oxford
Economics Annual
Economic
Impact
Research

INSEAD
Global
Talent
Competitiveness
Index

Heidrick &
Struggles
Global
Talent
Index

Heidrick &
Struggles
Global
Talent
Index

Heidrick &
Struggles
Global
Talent
Index

WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report

Oxford
Economics
Global
Talent

Oxford
ILO
Economics
Global
Talent

ILO

ILO

WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report

WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report

Argentina

-2.61

0.78

0.28

-0.46

0.70

0.94

-1.09

1.08

-0.20

-0.21

1.02

-0.68

-0.61

-0.29

-0.73

-0.12

-0.09

-1.49

-0.82

-0.09

0.73

-0.50

-0.08

0.31

-1.29

-0.67

Australia

0.48

-0.20

-0.24

-0.18

-0.05

-0.65

-0.65

-0.65

0.09

0.96

-1.44

-0.02

0.35

0.20

0.81

1.53

1.37

0.66

-0.42

0.94

-0.15

0.72

0.37

0.00

0.16

0.77

Austria

1.54

-0.65

-0.62

-0.02

-0.43

-0.36

-0.20

0.46

0.08

0.35

-0.66

-0.06

0.91

0.73

0.85

0.59

0.77

1.49

0.11

1.20

0.40

0.38

0.38

-0.18

0.64

1.86

Bahrain

-0.13

0.26

1.59

1.89

1.88

1.20

0.58

-0.19

2.29

2.33

0.66

0.48

0.63

0.08

-0.26

-0.66

-1.71

-1.08

0.48

-1.01

-0.04

-0.64

-2.24

-0.05

0.25

-0.26

Barbados

-0.71

0.02

-0.16

0.62

-0.23

-0.46

0.98

-0.21

-0.14

0.13

-0.53

0.52

1.51

3.00

0.41

0.63

0.47

0.52

0.17

0.19

-0.49

1.00

0.57

0.69

0.10

-0.26

Bermuda

-0.71

0.02

-0.16

0.62

-0.23

-0.46

0.98

-0.03

-0.14

1.04

-0.53

0.52

1.51

2.65

0.41

0.47

0.52

0.17

-0.98

-1.39

2.29

0.77

2.23

0.10

-0.26

Brazil

0.63

-0.35

0.91

-0.52

0.30

0.82

1.16

-0.53

1.08

-0.21

-0.43

-1.02

0.10

-1.01

-0.41

-0.92

-0.59

-0.60

-0.75

-1.46

0.07

-0.20

0.07

-0.01

-0.05

0.01

-0.04

0.82

-0.40

-0.40

0.17

-0.56

-1.17

1.75

-0.68

0.35

0.61

-0.36

0.68

0.14

-0.95

0.96

1.47

1.48

0.66

1.15

0.24

-0.04

1.02

0.60

0.13

0.31

0.99

Chile

-0.77

0.77

0.16

0.37

0.33

0.00

-0.08

1.15

-0.14

-0.33

1.00

0.44

-0.93

-0.35

0.18

-0.03

-0.31

0.25

0.79

-1.09

-1.31

-0.35

-0.35

-0.04

-0.13

-0.06

China

-1.02

0.20

0.15

1.16

0.34

-0.57

1.19

1.01

-0.15

-0.44

1.52

-0.29

-0.72

-0.44

-0.45

-0.11

-0.81

-0.17

0.69

-1.10

-1.56

1.35

0.55

-0.32

-0.34

-0.60

Colombia

-0.07

1.29

0.45

-0.17

0.96

1.10

0.08

0.41

-0.20

0.43

0.42

-1.60

-0.57

-0.77

-1.40

-0.69

-0.68

-1.08

-0.45

-1.50

-1.22

0.05

-0.19

0.70

-1.88

-0.98

Costa Rica

0.07

1.22

0.64

0.52

0.82

0.76

1.00

1.30

0.07

-0.01

-0.47

0.29

0.73

0.32

-0.22

0.07

-0.03

-0.02

0.60

-0.90

0.34

-0.45

-0.66

0.00

0.13

0.23

Czech Rep.

-0.57

-1.00

-0.30

0.12

-0.25

-0.83

-0.44

-0.44

0.03

-0.24

-0.50

-1.53

-0.56

-0.57

0.53

0.03

0.05

0.25

-0.38

0.78

-0.13

-0.06

0.06

0.10

-0.43

0.40

Egypt

-0.99

1.41

0.55

-0.81

1.22

1.49

-0.58

2.48

-0.20

-0.43

-1.13

-2.73

0.63

0.47

-2.10

-1.06

-1.31

-0.91

-1.55

-1.06

-0.73

-2.27

-1.91

0.63

-2.74

-1.56

France

-0.62

-0.52

-0.68

-0.74

-0.42

-0.25

-1.14

-0.18

-0.09

0.14

-1.30

-0.60

0.57

0.24

0.61

1.13

1.06

1.08

-1.19

0.69

0.12

0.13

0.55

0.86

-0.22

0.89

0.75

-1.11

-0.90

-0.28

-0.84

-0.55

-0.81

-0.88

-0.06

0.16

-0.33

0.21

-1.21

-0.96

0.77

1.32

1.36

1.16

-0.14

0.18

-1.13

-0.37

-0.42

-0.15

0.61

1.86

Greece

-1.06

-1.30

-0.70

-0.35

-0.39

-0.07

-0.46

0.53

-0.05

0.01

0.14

-2.49

-0.06

2.32

-0.81

-0.17

-0.40

0.00

0.42

-0.77

-1.08

-0.53

0.01

3.00

-2.36

-1.40

India

-0.66

1.52

0.61

-0.25

1.17

1.62

0.48

1.14

-0.24

-0.42

-1.22

0.02

-1.02

0.41

-1.87

-0.54

0.39

-0.75

-1.86

-1.81

-1.77

0.25

-0.04

1.10

-0.61

-0.65

Indonesia

-0.84

0.98

0.44

-0.18

1.11

1.99

0.86

1.32

-0.37

-0.44

-0.06

-0.37

-0.82

-0.53

-1.91

-1.80

-1.63

-2.33

-0.88

-0.79

-0.85

0.10

-0.78

-0.01

-0.16

-0.62

Italy

-0.49

-1.30

-0.93

-0.54

-0.53

0.00

-1.02

-0.46

0.05

0.03

0.53

-2.30

-0.95

0.47

-0.02

0.08

-0.22

0.00

0.23

0.56

0.42

-0.96

-0.04

1.20

-2.59

0.04

Japan

2.45

-1.39

-0.99

-1.20

-0.58

-0.44

-0.98

-0.71

-0.24

-0.35

-1.27

-0.33

-0.09

-0.75

0.57

0.07

0.30

0.75

-0.63

1.22

-0.09

-0.15

-0.18

-0.39

0.84

0.99

Kuwait

-0.69

0.39

1.72

1.19

2.23

0.87

-0.04

-0.87

2.02

2.61

0.83

-0.48

-3.00

-1.05

-0.96

-0.59

-0.62

-0.66

-0.05

1.77

2.64

0.64

-1.10

-0.63

-1.70

-1.53

Canada

Germany

Malaysia

0.75

1.67

0.85

0.33

1.17

0.89

1.28

0.03

0.05

-0.02

0.75

0.25

0.77

1.30

-0.06

-0.66

-0.65

-0.75

0.75

-0.21

0.46

-0.22

-0.81

-0.48

0.79

0.85

Mexico

-0.29

1.49

0.49

-0.34

1.21

1.69

-0.51

1.34

-0.48

-0.40

0.08

-0.72

0.24

1.13

-1.36

-0.54

-0.64

-0.41

-0.51

-1.59

-1.01

-0.63

-0.84

-0.20

-0.96

-0.28

Morocco

-0.73

1.44

0.62

-0.01

1.07

0.13

0.41

2.98

-0.18

-0.44

0.06

-0.75

1.25

1.74

-2.14

-1.64

-1.56

-1.67

-0.72

-1.18

-0.70

-2.06

-1.65

0.52

-1.20

-0.64

Netherlands

0.55

-0.58

-0.75

-0.34

-0.61

-0.43

-0.79

-0.89

-0.03

0.15

1.27

0.60

-0.52

1.32

1.16

1.27

1.34

1.08

0.72

0.52

0.15

0.74

0.37

0.26

0.76

1.91

Norway

0.26

-0.24

-0.46

-0.38

-0.16

-0.15

-1.00

-0.35

0.38

0.25

0.80

0.64

-0.70

0.04

0.92

1.57

1.36

0.66

0.26

-0.08

-1.38

0.26

0.79

-0.43

0.73

0.95

Oman

0.38

2.67

2.85

1.50

2.68

0.63

0.44

0.25

0.47

1.11

-1.36

0.48

0.93

-0.19

-0.26

-0.66

-1.71

-1.08

-1.15

-1.48

0.04

1.56

-1.48

0.04

-0.01

-1.26

-0.26

1.57

0.60

-0.42

1.26

1.53

-0.36

1.12

-0.44

-0.43

-0.30

-0.41

-0.26

-0.72

-1.16

-1.00

-1.15

-0.83

-0.91

0.20

1.32

-1.38

-1.75

-0.16

-1.47

-1.20

0.42

1.91

0.57

-1.00

1.42

1.68

-0.39

1.13

-0.26

-0.43

-1.25

-1.14

0.18

-0.38

-1.48

-0.79

-0.16

-0.58

-1.83

-1.33

-1.02

-0.26

0.43

0.14

0.04

-0.68

-0.27

-0.55

-0.03

0.61

-0.43

-1.82

-0.27

0.02

-0.11

-0.36

-0.69

-2.07

-1.96

-0.81

0.14

-0.07

0.03

-0.41

-0.79

-0.01

0.77

-0.05

-0.58

0.26

-0.76

0.10

Qatar

1.33

-0.12

2.85

3.00

2.56

0.66

1.73

0.69

3.00

3.00

1.88

0.48

-0.16

-1.03

0.06

0.32

0.19

0.22

1.34

1.87

2.17

-0.18

0.23

0.62

0.67

0.27

Russia

-2.49

-0.72

-0.05

0.75

-0.47

-0.98

0.04

-1.23

0.10

-0.05

-1.38

-2.18

-1.93

-1.17

-0.61

-0.45

-0.34

-0.41

-1.80

1.49

1.16

-0.09

-3.00

-0.93

-1.62

-1.16

Saudi Arabia

0.09

0.64

0.97

0.27

1.67

2.17

1.56

1.40

0.27

1.15

0.77

0.48

-0.62

-0.98

-0.26

-0.66

-1.71

-1.08

0.85

-1.78

-0.12

1.06

0.51

0.00

-0.04

-0.04

Singapore

0.84

0.17

0.03

1.34

-0.19

-1.19

2.04

-1.21

0.96

1.73

0.97

0.87

1.09

0.18

1.32

-1.53

1.52

1.49

1.40

0.37

0.45

-2.58

-2.82

-0.09

0.90

0.88

-0.69

1.46

0.75

-0.44

1.27

1.34

-1.19

2.29

0.03

-0.21

-1.88

-0.56

0.53

0.32

-0.77

-0.91

-0.58

-0.08

-2.79

0.00

0.08

0.60

0.07

-0.68

0.22

-0.51
0.09

Peru
Phillippines
Poland

South Africa
South Korea

1.04

-0.06

-0.12

1.19

-0.15

-1.39

-0.41

-1.01

-0.23

-0.32

-1.19

0.37

-0.45

-0.67

0.30

0.45

0.36

0.75

-0.26

1.28

0.30

-0.17

0.34

3.00

-0.25

-0.75

-1.45

-0.58

-0.12

-0.17

0.10

-0.86

-0.31

0.03

0.26

0.58

-1.45

1.05

0.59

0.02

0.23

0.14

0.08

0.57

-0.73

-1.24

-0.05

-0.22

-0.49

-2.06

0.16

Sweden

1.44

-0.42

-0.60

-0.81

-0.25

-0.16

-0.95

-0.05

0.19

0.36

0.91

0.56

-0.36

-0.04

1.24

1.69

1.58

1.08

0.51

0.96

1.00

0.15

0.27

3.00

0.82

1.40

Switzerland

1.61

-0.71

-0.51

0.04

-0.32

-0.24

2.01

-0.31

0.40

1.02

1.33

0.91

0.61

-0.42

1.36

1.42

1.46

1.49

1.43

0.72

0.52

1.30

0.75

0.33

0.96

2.34

Taiwan

1.26

-0.06

-0.12

1.19

-0.15

-1.39

0.13

-0.75

-0.03

-0.26

-1.41

0.37

0.06

-0.61

0.30

0.73

0.53

1.41

-0.29

0.26

0.62

0.91

0.31

-0.47

0.07

0.64

Thailand

0.62

-0.09

-0.03

1.03

0.05

-0.06

1.12

0.80

-0.08

-0.16

0.11

-0.17

0.68

0.88

-1.44

-0.88

-0.65

-1.00

0.05

0.72

2.36

-0.66

0.55

-0.34

-0.46

-0.82

Turkey

0.62

0.98

0.50

0.01

0.96

1.23

1.05

-0.02

0.04

-0.32

-0.55

-1.26

0.33

-0.74

-1.24

-0.78

-0.83

-0.50

-0.11

-1.51

0.15

1.25

0.22

-0.76

-0.90

-1.05

UAE

0.64

-0.02

3.00

3.00

3.00

0.82

1.80

0.26

3.00

3.00

1.96

0.72

1.20

0.66

0.65

0.84

0.65

0.72

1.31

-0.39

0.16

-0.68

-2.46

-0.33

0.49

0.55

UK

0.44

-0.53

-0.54

-0.51

-0.23

0.07

1.31

-0.67

0.12

0.18

0.61

0.79

0.18

0.65

1.12

1.26

0.91

1.41

1.09

0.00

-0.40

0.51

0.39

0.16

0.58

1.54

US

0.66

-0.03

-0.34

-0.19

-0.35

-0.56

1.89

-0.48

0.09

0.28

0.22

0.75

-0.43

-0.12

1.04

2.85

1.71

2.24

1.06

0.36

0.05

0.67

0.42

0.10

0.55

1.16

Spain

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC


Talent enabling environment:
z score > 0 = above average performance;
z score < 0 = below average performance

61

Final Report - January 2015

62

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Annex D

Talent enabling environment sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis 1:
Non-equal pillar weights

Sensitivity assumption adjustments


Non-equal pillar weights: Larger weights are applied to the following pillars
on the basis of their implied relative importance from the literature review:
demographics, industry relative attractiveness, openness and recruitment
competition.

Big movers up the ranks: Kuwait, Argentina, Peru,


Indonesia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Big movers down the ranks: France, Australia, Spain,


Taiwan, Norway, Japan and South Korea.

Gulf Cooperation Council smaller weight for openness and labour market
flexibility: Although foreign labour is more important today in GCC countries,
many of these countries have aspirations to reduce the foreign share of the
workforce. Thus it is useful to analyse their talent enabling environment today with
a zero weight for the openness and labour market flexibility pillars. In truth the effect
of foreign labour permeates across other pillars customer service, demographics,
industry relative attractiveness and quality of general human resources so it is
difficult with the available data to make a true assessment of the talent enabling
environment in GCC countries related solely to the national workforce.

Sensitivity analysis talent enabling environment


pillar weights
Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environmental pillar weights
Sensivity analysis 1:
Non-equal weights

Sensivity analysis 2:
GCG larger weight openness
and labour market flexibility

Sensivity analysis 3:
GCC smaller weight openness
and labour market flexibility

Customer service

10.0%

6.7%

3.8%

12.5%

Demographics

10.0%

15.0%

3.8%

12.5%

Flexibility of labour market

10.0%

6.7%

20.0%

0.0%

Industry relative attactiveness

10.0%

15.0%

3.8%

12.5%

Openness

10.0%

15.0%

50.0%

0.0%

Prioritisation of T&T and existing T&T skill base

10.0%

6.7%

3.8%

12.5%

Quality of human resources

10.0%

6.7%

3.8%

12.5%

Recruitment competition

10.0%

15.0%

3.8%

12.5%

Spare labour market capacity and female participation

10.0%

6.7%

3.8%

12.5%

Training

10.0%

6.7%

3.8%

12.5%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Sum

Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environmental


overall ranks
Core: Equal weights

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) larger weight for openness and labour
market flexibility: A larger weight (50%) is applied to the openness pillar for
the following countries only: Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi
Arabia. This reflects the much greater importance and role of foreign labour in
these countries, especially for the travel & Tourism industry, and consequently
the reduced importance of domestic talent measures. A larger weight of 20%
is also applied to the labour market flexibility pillar as this is closely linked to the
openness pillar.

Core: Equal weights

63

Final Report - January 2015

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC


1 = best rank; 46 = worst rank

Sensivity analysis 1:
Non-equal weights

Rank
change

Qatar

Qatar

UAE

UAE

Switzerland

Switzerland

Singapore

Malaysia

Malaysia

Thailand

US

Singapore

-2

Austria

Costa Rica

Sweden

Sweden

UK

Saudi Arabia

10

Thailand

10

Austria

11

Costa Rica

11

Morocco

12

Canada

12

US

13

Bermuda

13

Bahrain

14

Barbados

14

South Africa

15

Netherlands

15

Kuwait

19

16

Saudi Arabia

16

Oman

17

Bahrain

17

Peru

18

Morocco

18

UK

-9

19

South Africa

19

Netherlands

-4

20

Oman

20

Canada

-8

21

Taiwan

21

Barbados

-7

22

Australia

22

Bermuda

-9

23

Norway

23

China

24

China

24

Chile

25

Japan

25

Mexico

26

Peru

26

Argentina

17

27

Turkey

27

Indonesia

28

Chile

28

Brazil

29

Mexico

29

Turkey

-2

30

South Korea

30

Taiwan

-9

31

France

31

Philippines

32

Philippines

32

Norway

33

Spain

33

Australia

34

Kuwait

34

Egypt

35

Brazil

35

India

36

Indonesia

36

South Korea

-6

37

India

37

France

-6

38

Germany

38

Colombia

39

Czech Republic

39

Argentina

-14

40

Greece

40

Japan

41

Poland

41

Spain

-8

42

Colombia

42

Czech Republic

-3

43

Argentina

43

Greece

-3

44

Italy

44

Italy

45

Egypt

45

Germany

46

Russia

46

Russia

-3
7
-6
4
5

1
-9
-11
11
2

0
-7
0

64

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

Final Report - January 2015

Sensitivity analysis 2 and 3: Gulf Cooperation


Council alternate weights for openness and
labour market flexibility pillars
Sensitivity analysis 2: Larger weight for openness (50%) and
labour market flexibility (20%) pillars

Big movers up the ranks: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia


and Bahrain.

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC


1 = best rank; 46 = worst rank

65

Sensitivity analysis 3: Smaller weight for


openness (0%) and labour market flexibility
(0%) pillars
Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environmental
overall ranks

Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environmental


overall ranks

Core: Equal weights

Core: Equal weights

Sensivity analysis 2:
weight openness and labour
market flexibility

Rank
change

Sensivity analysis 3:
GCC smaller weight openness
and labour market flexibility

Rank
change

Qatar

Qatar

-1

UAE

Austria

Switzerland

Switzerland

Switzerland

Saudi Arabia

12

Singapore

Sweden

Singapore

-1

Malaysia

UAE

US

Bahrain

11

US

Malaysia

Austria

Malaysia

-2

Austria

South Africa

Sweden

Sweden

Sweden

Costa Rica

UK

US

-3

UK

Singapore

-5

10

Thailand

10

Austria

-3

10

Thailand

10

Thailand

11

Costa Rica

11

Costa Rica

11

Costa Rica

11

Netherlands

12

Canada

12

UK

-3

12

Canada

12

US

13

Bermuda

13

Canada

-1

13

Bermuda

13

Bermuda

-1

14

Barbados

14

Kuwait

20

14

Barbados

14

Barbados

20

15

Netherlands

15

Thailand

-5

15

Netherlands

15

UK

-5

16

Saudi Arabia

16

Netherlands

-1

16

Saudi Arabia

16

Canada

-1

17

Bahrain

17

Barbados

-3

17

Bahrain

17

Japan

-3

18

Morocco

Bermuda

-5

18

Morocco

18

Australia

19

South Africa

19

Taiwan

19

South Africa

19

Taiwan

20

Oman

20

South Africa

-1

20

Oman

20

Morocco

-2

21

Taiwan

21

Morocco

-3

21

Taiwan

21

Oman

-1

22

Australia

22

Turkey

22

Australia

22

France

23

Norway

-1

23

Norway

23

Peru

Qatar

UAE

UAE

Qatar

Switzerland

Singapore

Malaysia

6
7

18

23

Australia

4
-3
-1
12

0
4
-3

4
2

24

China

24

Norway

-1

-5

25

Japan

25

Bahrain

-8

-3

26

Peru

26

Phillippines

27

Turkey

27

Saudi Arabia

-11

28

Chile

28

South Korea

29

Mexico

29

Mexico

30

South Korea

30

Brazil

-2

31

France

31

Spain

China

-8

32

Philippines

32

Turkey

-5

33

South Korea

-3

33

Spain

33

Germany

34

Spain

-1

34

Kuwait

34

Chile

Brazil

35

Poland

35

Brazil

35

Czech Republic

Indonesia

36

Czech Republic

36

Indonesia

36

Greece

37

India

37

Brazil

-2

37

India

37

India

38

Germany

38

Argentina

38

Germany

38

Poland

39

Czech Republic

39

Japan

-14

39

Czech Republic

39

Egypt

40

Greece

40

Colombia

40

Greece

40

China

-16

41

Poland

41

Indonesia

-5

41

Poland

41

Italy

42

Colombia

42

Indonesia

-6
-9

24

China

24

Peru

25

Japan

25

Oman

26

Peru

26

Norway

27

Turkey

27

Chile

28

Chile

28

France

29

Mexico

29

Phillippines

30

South Korea

30

India

31

France

31

Mexico

32

Philippines

32

33

Spain

34

Kuwait

35
36

3
3
7

Big movers down the ranks: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman,


Qatar and UAE.

5
-6

42

Colombia

42

Italy

43

Argentina

43

Germany

-5

43

Argentina

43

Kuwait

44

Italy

44

Greece

-4

44

Italy

44

Argentina

-1

45

Egypt

45

Egypt

45

Egypt

45

Colombia

-3

46

Russia

46

Russia

46

Russia

46

Russia

Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC


1 = best rank; 46 = worst rank

66

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector

67

Final Report - January 2015

The Harlequin Building 65 Southwark Street


London SE1 0HR - United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0) 207 481 8007
Fax +44 (0) 207 488 1008
Email enquiries@wttc.org
www.wttc.org

68

Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector