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Authors Lindsay Shutes, Marijke Kuiper, Edward Smeets & Martine Rutten
Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels exists when all people, at all times, have
physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life. (FAO, 1996)
Factor cost
Intermediate input
Producers demand
Increases in the demand for land, labour and capital lead to improved
household incomes
Increased incomes in net exporting countries
Diversification opportunities for farmers
Countries become more self-sufficient in fuel; relying less on oil imports
Increases in agricultural productivity
Hindrance
Domestic sales
Availability
Producer
prices
Access
Consumer
prices
Food
production
Household
income
from land,
labour &
capital
Food
trade
Utilisation
Food
basket
Nutrient
consumption
Households
Product
markets
Government savings
Government
Transfers
Saving &
investment
Government
consumption
Investment
demand
Imports
Exports
Key:
Wages
& rents
Private
consumption
Hope
Factor
markets
Rest of
the World
Direct effect
Foreign savings
Indirect effect
Figure 2. The impact of biofuels on key income and expenditure flows in an economy
Adapted from Lfgren et al. (2001).
The direct and indirect effects of biofuels on food security are modelled in
the MAGNET global computable general equilibrium model which has been
extended to include multiple household types. The model produces longterm projections for agricultural, energy and other markets for 129 regions
of the world and 57 standard commodities plus additional biofuel products.
The results of the model show the impact of biofuels on food security for a
range of household types. Households that are engaged in agriculture
and/or spend a low share of their income on food may be net gainers from
an expansion in biofuel production. In contrast, poor urban households that
spend a high proportion of their income on food are likely to become more
food insecure as biofuel production expands.
References
Key:
Positive
Neutral/uncertain
Negative
Figure 1. The impact of increased biofuel production on three dimensions of food security
LEI Wageningen UR
P.O. Box 29703, 2502 LS The Hague
Contact: lindsay.shutes@wur.nl
T + 31 (0)70 335 82 81
http://www.wageningenur.nl/en/Expertise-Services/Research-Institutes/lei/Research-Areas/International-policy.htm