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Harald Hruschka *, Martin Lukanowicz, Christian Buchta

Department of Marketing, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstrasse 31, D-93053 Regensburg, Germany

Telekom Control, Mariahilferstrasse 77, A-1060 Vienna, Austria

Department of Tourism, University of Economics, Augasse 2, A-1090 Vienna, Austria

Received for publication 14 July 1998

Abstract

We introduce a multivariate binomial logit model measuring cross-category dependence and sales promotion effects of a retail

assortment. This model requires as data both the market baskets of individual shoppers and the categories currently promoted in

a retail outlet. A special section describes the stepwise procedure used to estimate parameters of this model. Its application is

demonstrated analyzing 6147 purchases that were acquired in a medium-sized supermarket. We finally discuss the managerial

relevance of this model for sales promotion decisions of retail firms. 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

yogurt).

The main focus of our study is the measurement of In contrast to these approaches, the following contri-

dependencies and sales promotion effects across the cate- butions are able to reproduce influences of many (i.e.

gories of a retail assortment. Both dependencies and sales more than one) different categories on purchases of a

promotion effects are conceived with regard to shoppers’ category. Hruschka (1991) develops a probabilistic model

purchase probabilities. We use market basket data ac- consisting of logit equations, which measures cross-

quired by scanner technology together with appropriate category dependence by interaction parameters. He stud-

software where a market basket is the set of items (cate- ies market baskets for an assortment of 72 categories.

gories) that a buyer acquires in the same purchase. The Another probabilistic approach uses data mining algo-

other part of our database consists of information on the rithms to discover association rules that indicate how

categories currently featured in a retail outlet. frequent pairs of subsets of assortment categories are

One finds a few contributions dealing with the mea- purchased together (Agrawal and Sikant, 1994).

surement of cross-category dependence in the literature. There is a dearth of studies investigating the impact

Böcker (1975, 1978) uses pairwise association measures of promotions on non-promoted products, especially

to identify relationships between pairs of categories. with regard to complementary effects. Walters (1991) or

Similar approaches may be found in Julander (1992), Mulhern and Leone (1991) find evidence of asymmetric

Dickinson et al. (1992) and Bultez et al. (1996). Chin- promotion effects between pairs of categories. Schmalen

tagunta and Haldar (1995) use sophisticated bivariate and Pechtl (1995) study cross-category promotion effects

hazard and probit models to measure cross-category of coffee on other categories. Effects are measured by

dependence with regard to purchase times or choices, but growth of monetary sales of the other category. Sales

they still only consider pairs of categories (pasta and growth is somewhat higher only in one of the other

categories (cut cheese).

Chintagunta and Haldar (1995) extend their models

mentioned above by including price and promotion vari-

* Corresponding author. Tel.: 0049 941 943 2277; fax: 0049 941 943 ables. For the pairs of product categories considered they

2278. obtain higher interdependence measures compared to

0969-6989/99/$ — see front matter 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

PII: S 0 9 6 9 - 6 9 8 9 ( 9 8 ) 0 0 0 2 6 - 5

100 H. Hruschka et al. / Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 6 (1999) 99—105

model specifications without independent variables. purchases of category i from purchases of the rest of the

Manchanda et al. (1997) analyse multi-category pur- assortment.

chases in four categories (laundry detergents, fabric b denotes the effect of a sales promotion of category

G

softeners, cakemix and cake frosting) using a multivariate i on the main effect of the same category, b the effect on

GHG

probit model. They obtain significant complementary the interaction of categories i and j by a sales promotion

price effects between laundry detergents and fabric of category i.

softeners (cakemix and cake frosting). Conditional probabilities of purchases of category i

In the next section we lay out the multivariate logit given purchases of other related categories (whose

model. This is followed by a section giving information a O0) collected in the index set Z and sales promotions

GH G

on the estimation method. Then results of an empirical X"+X , 2, X , are derived from the loglinear model

'

study are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the as

managerial relevance of this model for sales promotion

P "1/(1#exp(!(aG #bG X

decisions of retail firms. G8G 6 G

# (aG #bG X #bG X ) ½ )))

H HG G HH H H

HZ8G

2. Multivariate logit model with

aG "a , bG "b , bG "b . (2)

We extend the model of Hruschka (1991) by including H GH HG GHG HH GHH

cross-category sales promotion effects influencing This model consists of one binomial logit equation for

purchase probabilities. Purchases ½ (i"1, I) and sales each of the categories considered. It is a multivariate

G

promotion X (i"1, I) in I product categories are binary binomial logit model using the terminology of Nerlove

G

variables. We assume that promotion of category i may and Press (1973).

influence purchases of category i via its main effect as well The relationship of the multivariate logit formulation

as joint purchases of other categories jOi via interaction to the loglinear model implies cross-equation parameter

parameters. restrictions of the following type (Maddala, 1987):

We start from the loglinear model for joint purchase

aG "aH"a . (3)

probabilites P(½ , 2, ½ ):

' H G GH

These restrictions come up to equality conditions for

' first-order interactions. The coefficient of interaction of

ln P(½ , 2, ½ )"a # (a #b X ) ½

' G G G G category j in the equation of category i, aG equals the

G H

coefficient of category i in the equation of category j, aH .

G

'\ ' We call two categories purchase complements (substi-

# (a #b X #b X )½ ½ , (1)

GH GHG G GHH H G H tutes) if joint purchases are more (less) frequent compared

G HG> to the case of stochastic independence (Mulhern and

where a is the main effect of category i (the change of the Leone, 1991). Our definition is based on product interde-

G pendencies in terms of customers’ purchases (Betancourt

log expected joint probabilities by a purchase of category

i), and a the first-order interaction between the two and Gautschi, 1990).

GH A parameter aG greater (less) than zero indicates that

categories i and j. Interactions measure the deviation of H

the log observed joint probabilities from the log expected both categories are complements (substitutes). A para-

joint probabilities if only main effects are considered. meter equal to zero shows that they are independent. To

The model includes interactions between pairs of be more specific, there is conditional independence with

categories (first-order interactions) and neglects higher- those categories jOi, which have no interaction para-

order interactions (e.g. between triples of categories). This meter different from zero in the logit equation of category

may be justified by the high number of variables (catego- i. If the logit equation of category i has no interaction

ries) of retail applications and the better interpretability parameters at all, its purchases are totally independent

of such a simplified model. A similar approach is taken in from purchases of the rest of the assortment.

conjoint-analysis models (e.g. Green et al., 1989). We distinguish the following types of effects of a sales

Omission of any first-order interaction a gives promotion of category i:

GH

a model, where the purchase of category i is conditionally E more purchases of the same category (bG '0);

independent from the purchase of category j given pur-

E less joint purchases of categories i and j (bG (0);

chases of other categories. By leaving out any a with HG

GI E more joint purchases of categories i and j (bG '0).

kOj as well, one obtains a model according to which the HG

purchase of both categories i and k is independent from In the extreme a promotion may make two categories

the purchase of category j. If all interactions a with jOi purchase complements that without promotion joint

GH

are excluded, we arrive at total independence of purchases are stochastically independent.

H. Hruschka et al. / Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 6 (1999) 99—105 101

3. Estimation of the multivariate logit model special software installed in the data-processing center of

the retail chain. The purchases of the data set occurred

Estimation of the multivariate logit model proceeds in on four successive saturdays. As frequencies for indi-

the following way: vidual items as a rule become very low, we analyze data

1. Basic multivariate logit model: on the category level. In agreement with the classification

scheme of the retail chain 150 categories are distin-

E determination of significant cross effects for all pairs of guished.

categories; Results demonstrate that dependence exists for 73

E specification of the multivariate logit model by com- categories. Only 4.9% of the pairs formed by these 73

bining interaction parameters corresponding to all sig- categories have significant interaction parameters. The

nificant cross effects and all main effect parameters; purchases of certain categories are totally independent of

E single equation estimation of the multivariate logit purchases of the remaining categories. Table 1 shows

model; those isolated categories and their main effects, which

E stepwise elimination of interaction parameters; attain at least 100 purchases in the data set.

E estimation of the multivariate model for all categories Using interaction parameters of the multivariate

taking cross-equation equality restrictions into ac- binomial model one can identify clusters consisting of

count. more than one category that are independent from other

2. Introduction of the additional parameters of the ex- parts of the assortment (Fig. 1 contains a MDS map

tended model. computed on the basis of interaction parameters.).

3. Stepwise elimination of additional parameters. These clusters are:

Single logit equations for each category are estimated E detergents and related products;

by generalized least squares. To include parameter re- E household cleansers, other cleansers;

strictions the whole system of binomial logit equations is E tobacco, cigars, cigarette paper;

formulated as one multivariate nonlinear regression E tropical fruit, frozen fruit;

model. Parameter estimates (or variance weighted ave- E baby related products (food, care, hygienic);

rages) obtained in the single equation step serve as initial E red wine, white wine;

values for the multivariate nonlinear least squares es- E beer, water.

timation (Gallant, 1987).

The vast number of possible model specifications The categories most frequently bought are:

because of the high number of categories even when bread (1078 purchases);

restricting to constant terms and first order interactions fruit (1050 purchases);

forces to use a coarse model search heuristic. In several vegetables (846 purchases);

steps, the parameter with maximal insignificance is se- yoghurt (782 purchases);

lected as candidate for elimination from the model. It is journals (713 purchases);

actually eliminated, if the normed fit index of the unres- milk (705 purchases).

tricted model with this parameter included compared to Table 2 contains main effects and interaction para-

the restricted model without this parameter is less than meters of the logit equations of these categories. Bread

0.02. Stepwise elimination stops, if all parameters are has the strongest interactions with cut cheese and fruit or

significant at a"0.05. vegetables, fruit with vegetables and yoghurt, vegetables

The normed fit index gives the relative improvement of with fruit and milk, yoghurt with milk and fruit, milk

the sum of weighted squared errors of an unrestricted with yoghurt and vegetables. Journals only interact with

model (SSE ) compared to a restricted model (SSE ): bread.

3 0

SSE !SSE

0 3. (4) Table 1

SSE

0 Independent categories

In the case of perfect fit the normed fit index assumes the Category Purchases aG

value one.

Champagne 116 !1.398

Cigarettes 443 !0.796

Frozen potato and flour products 108 !1.398

4. Empirical study Frozen poultry 157 !1.301

Gifts 193 !1.222

The empirical study is based on a data set consisting of Office articles 100 !1.523

6147 purchases acquired in a medium sized supermarket Rolls 265 !1.046

Snacks 251 !1.046

of the same retail chain. Usual scanner data were read in, Soft drinks 555 !0.770

transformed to and stored as market basket data by

102 H. Hruschka et al. / Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 6 (1999) 99—105

On the whole, results confirm expectations that most gories promotion does not change their own main effect

categories of a retail assortment are complements as they (bG "0), i.e. the purchase frequency does not significantly

allow customers to do one-stop shopping (Betancourt increase (or decrease), if a category is promoted:

and Gautschi, 1990). Almost all of the interactions dis-

E deli;

covered comprise categories that are complements. The

E spread;

only substitutes found are cigars and tobacco as well as

E sweets;

cigars and cigarette paper. This may be explained by the

E vermouth and dessert wine;

fact that these categories are restricted to basically the

E dog food;

same consumption activity.

E toilet tissue;

The logit model is computationally more efficient than

E red wine;

the data mining approach of Agrawal and Sikant (1994)

E dishwashing detergents;

mentioned above. The latter leads to computing times for

E electric appliances.

small simulation problems with 20 categories which are

much higher than those necessary for the multivariate It may be possible that promotion in these categories

binomial logit model when applied to a real-world data only lead to switching of customers within a category. Of

set. course, to study this hypothesis one has to use brand-

Maximally, 47 categories are promoted per week. After specific data.

eliminating 26 categories that are promoted in every For salt & garlic as well as cat food the multivariate

week and categories with very low purchase frequencies, logit model indicates more purchases if these categories

28 promoted categories remain. For the following cate- are promoted (i.e. higher main effects because of bG equal

H. Hruschka et al. / Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 6 (1999) 99—105 103

Table 2

Main and interaction effects

Bread Fruit Milk Journals Vegetables Yoghurt

Baking products 0.190 0.176

Bread 0.279 0.161 0.265 0.279 0.173

Butter 0.170 0.155 0.270

Canned milk 0.114

Canned vegetables 0.170 0.152

Cheese 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.146 0.238

Chocolate 0.170 0.182

Cut cheese 0.529 0.111 0.238 0.260 0.140

Deli 0.238 0.386

Dental care 0.286

Durable milk 0.173 0.185

Eggs 0.223 0.179 0.324

Fat & oil 0.140 0.086 0.204

Fruit 0.279 0.140 0.401 0.312

Fruit juice 0.272

Hygienic tissue 0.179

Journals 0.265

Milk 0.161 0.140 0.400 0.487

Pasta 0.121 0.255

Rice & legume 0.061

Salt & garlic 0.260

Soups & sauces 0.127 0.188 0.179

Sour canned food 0.230 0.199

Spices & mustard 0.093

Toilet tissue 0.182

Vegetables 0.279 0.401 0.400

Whole-meat bread 0.290

Yoghurt 0.173 0.312 0.487

to 0.176 and 0.230, respectively), but no effects on interac- i and j are only related if i is promoted:

tions (i.e. the interaction parameters are the same as

without feature, bG "0). Especially, salt & garlic is a rice & legume P milk (0.318);

HG soups & sauces P baking products (0.223).

category only weakly related to consumption activities.

Promoting it therefore does not change consumption

The multivariate logit model demonstrates that for

patterns of other categories.

some categories promotion decreases the joint purchase

For some of the other categories effects of promotion

probability compared to the situation without promo-

on interactions can be confirmed. Promotion increases

tion:

complementary relationships in some categories (para-

meters bG are shown in parentheses): flour P baking products (!0.276);

HG

canned vegetables P pasta (0.236); flour P fat & oil (!0.276);

canned vegetables P soups sauces (0.251); bread P fruit (!0.375);

dried fruit P baking products (0.338); bread P milk (!0.108);

hair care P hygienic products (0.021); deli P canned fish (!0.046);

soups & sauces P canned vegetables (0.206). exotic fruit P frozen fruit (!0.495);

fruit P bread (!0.215);

Most of these category pairs are complements with hygienic tissue P dental care (!0.260).

regard to consumption acitivities. Note that promotion

of canned vegetables increases the complementary rela- Accelerated purchases (of e.g. flour, tissue), reduction

tionship with soups & sauces, while promotion of soups of consumption activities including the categories on the

& sauces in turn increases the complementary relation- right-hand side (e.g. fruit or bread) or substitution in

ship with canned vegetables. consumption activities (e.g. of frozen by exotic fruit)

Promotion in some categories lead to complementary caused by promotion may be responsible for these

relationships with certain other categories, i.e. categories results.

104 H. Hruschka et al. / Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 6 (1999) 99—105

the retailer’s profits may be higher if he promotes

Market basket data offer new possibilities to provide only A. According to the empirical results this may be

information that is relevant from the point of view of valid for canned vegetables and pasta, dried fruit and

retail managers. Hitherto the most popular approaches baking products as well as hair care and hygienic

showing interdependencies in retail assortments rely on products.

association measures for pairs of categories. We present- Such categories are also appropriate for loss leader-

ed a multivariate binomial logit model for market basket pricing. This means that they are offered with a lower

data analysis which overcomes limitations of these bi- price, which besides own category sales also increases

variate methods. It separates simple effects of frequency purchase probabilities of related high-margin categories.

from interactions between categories. It allows to identify This way the retailer earns higher profits.

single categories as well as clusters of categories that are On the other hand, if effects of promoting category

independent from the rest of the assortment with regard A are positive with regard to B and vice versa, it may

to purchase probabilities. Moreover, the multivariate be of advantage to promote both. The results for

logit also measures cross-category effects of sales promo- soups & sauces and canned vegetables provide an

tions on purchase probabilities. example.

Nevertheless this new approach has certain limita- Promotion of categories may reduce purchases in

tions. It only considers whether or not items are pur- certain other categories. This makes promotion or loss-

chased together, but neglects how much of these items leader pricing less attractive. Relevant examples in our

are purchased. In the form presented here, individual study are bread and fruit or milk, deli and fish, exotic

shoppers are not identified and interdependencies across fruit and frozen fruit.

purchases of an individual or household are neglected

due to data restrictions. Moreover, homogeneity across

purchases is assumed. Of course, most of these limi-

tations draw attention to possible extensions of the Acknowledgements

model.

The capability to give a more valid picture of pur- We thank Helmut Schmalen and his co-workers at the

chases of categories and their interdependencies is Department of Marketing of the University of Passau for

of managerial relevance. The multivariate logit model their help in providing the data and discussing results.

calibrated on basket data is suited for assisting retail Partial support by the Austrian Research Foundation

managers in taking sales promotion and assortment (Project P 7527) is acknowledged.

decisions.

With regard to sales promotion the relevant literature

focuses on the effects of features, displays, coupons and

price cuts on purchases of the same category or brand

(Blattberg and Neslin, 1990). Despite the obvious import- References

ance of increasing purchase probabilities of the same

category or item (i.e. strong positive influences of promo- Agrawal, R., Sikant, R., 1994. Fast algorithms for mining asssociation

rules. Proceedings of the VLDB Conference. Santiago, Chile.

tions on main effects), in many situations promotions are Betancourt, R., Gautschi, D., 1990. Demand complementarities, Hause-

effective only if they stimulate sales of non-promoted hold production, and retail assortments. Marketing Science 9,

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categories or items to current customers (Mulhern and Bishop, Y.M.M., Fienberg, S.E., Holland, P.W., 1975. Discrete multi-

Leone, 1991). To take an example from our empirical variate analysis. Theory and Practice. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

Blattberg, R.C., Neslin, S.A., 1990. Sales promotion. Prentice-Hall,

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