Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Decision Making
Modelling for Decisions
Simulation
Trade-off analysis
Cost-benefit analysis
Reading: chapter 9
Decision type
Decision context
Stakeholders
Legacy decisions
Supporting data
Managerial
Strategic
Phase I: Intelligence
Define problem
Collect and synthesize data
Develop model
Identify alternatives (options
or choices)
Evaluate alternatives
(objectives)
Search choices
Understand sensitivities
Make decision(s)
Physical models
Mathematical models
Differential equations for dynamic systems (finite
element analysis, computational fluid dynamics,
population model)
Discrete event simulation (traffic simulation)
Formal language in computer science
Physical models
Scale model of airplane for the simulation in the
wind tunnel
Vehicle used in crash tests
3D printing
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Characteristics
- Intuitive, you dont need indepth training for
understanding
- Good for conceptual clarity
and understand
- Not good to support
computing and analysis
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Games
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Physical simulation
Hardware-in-the-loop simulation
Environmental simulation
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Identification of alternatives
Sensitivity analysis
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Reliability
Maintainability
Ease of use
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Subjective value
method
1 = poor
4 = good
2 = fair 3 = satisfact
5 = superior
5-point scale
Actual measurement
method
An explicit mapping
between a measure and a
score
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Three
alternatives
and four
criteria
Which one are
you going to
select?
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Develop a relative ranking for each criterion (e.g., $/10 for both
profit potential and risk and use a 5point scale for market share
with 5=H, 4=MH, 3=M, etc.) giving the following:
Profit potential
Profit risk
Market share
SW II
14.0
3.5
3.0
SW III
15.0
5.0
1.0
SW IV
13.0
4.5
3.0
SW I
10.0
4.0
5.0
SW I
6.50
0.80
0.75
8.05
SW II
9.10
0.70
0.45
10.25
SW III
9.75
1.00
0.15
10.90
SW IV
8.45
0.90
0.45
9.80
Under the given weights and the ranking values chosen, it would be
best for the firm to offer SW III. SW II is found to be a close second
choice.
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