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ESCUELA PROFESIONAL
INGENIERIA ECONOMICA
TRABAJO ENCARGADO
EVALUACION DE IMPACTO DE PROGRAMAS SOCIALES
PROGRAMA: CAPACITACION AGRICOLA
CURSO: ELECTIVO
III
SEMESTRE
: IX
Puno - Per
2016
RESUMEN
INTRODUCCION
fin es mejorar la
. gen cult=ln(1+htcult/100)
. gen dim=aosedu*2+numh
. gen cult=ln(1+htcult/100)
. gen dim=aosedu*2+numh
. egen progdim=max(jefeho), by(dim)
. ttest ling, by(progdim)
Two-sample t test with equal variances
Group
Obs
Mean
0
1
513
487
combined
1000
diff
Std. Err.
Std. Dev.
6.013936
6.281294
.0187567
.0131184
.4248301
.2894973
5.977086
6.255519
6.050785
6.30707
6.144139
.0122942
.3887755
6.120014
6.168265
-.267359
.0231079
-.3127047
-.2220133
t = -11.5700
degrees of freedom =
998
Ha: diff != 0
Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0000
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
17.8581238
133.137117
1 17.8581238
998 .133403925
Total
150.995241
999 .151146388
ling
Coef.
progdim
_cons
.267359
6.013936
Std. Err.
.0231079
.016126
t
11.57
372.94
Number of obs
F( 1, 998)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
1000
133.87
0.0000
0.1183
0.1174
.36525
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
.2220133
5.982291
.3127047
6.04558
Obs
Mean
0
1
776
224
combined
1000
diff
Std. Err.
Std. Dev.
5.990125
6.677688
.0104135
.0084947
.2900873
.1271367
5.969683
6.660948
6.010567
6.694428
6.144139
.0122942
.3887755
6.120014
6.168265
-.6875627
.0199178
-.7266483
-.6484771
t = -34.5200
degrees of freedom =
998
Ha: diff != 0
Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0000
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
82.1739861
68.821255
1 82.1739861
998 .068959173
Total
150.995241
999 .151146388
ling
Coef.
progdims
_cons
.6875627
5.990125
Std. Err.
.0199178
.0094268
t
34.52
635.43
Number of obs
F( 1, 998)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
1000
1191.63
0.0000
0.5442
0.5438
.2626
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
.6484771
5.971627
.7266483
6.008624
Number of obs
F( 5, 502)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
ling
Coef.
progdims
jefeho
aosedu
cult
numh
_cons
.5611921
.3065268
-.0092398
4.270701
.1270549
5.334206
Robust
Std. Err.
.0167706
.0175855
.0087178
.7446189
.015094
.0705369
t
33.46
17.43
-1.06
5.74
8.42
75.62
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
0.290
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
=
508
476.35
0.0000
0.8482
.15814
.5941414
.3410771
.007888
5.733654
.1567102
5.47279
ling
progdim
jefeho
aosedu
cult
numh
_cons
Number of obs
F( 4, 503)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
Coef.
Robust
Std. Err.
.2300048 .0285828
0 (omitted)
-.0168581 .0147681
10.71053 1.143762
.2100687 .0213885
4.986682 .1059855
=
508
= 83.70
= 0.0000
= 0.5884
= .26015
P>|t|
8.05
0.000
.1738483
.2861613
-1.14
9.36
9.82
47.05
0.254
0.000
0.000
0.000
-.0458727
8.463394
.1680468
4.778453
.0121566
12.95767
.2520906
5.194911
METODO
IMPACTOS DEL PROGRAMA POR
COMUNIDADES DEL PROGRAMA
PARTICIPAR
EN
LAS
Number of obs
F( 1, 130)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
ling
Coef.
jefeho
_cons
.1822368
6.625119
Robust
Std. Err.
.0173948
.0083067
t
10.48
797.56
=
=
=
=
=
132
109.76
0.0000
0.5478
.07952
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
.1478233
6.608685
.2166504
6.641553
Number of obs
F( 1, 251)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
ling
Coef.
selec
_cons
.6234366
6.183919
Robust
Std. Err.
.02067
.0139778
t
30.16
442.41
=
=
=
=
=
253
909.71
0.0000
0.6947
.16625
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
.5827278
6.156391
.6641453
6.211448
Number of obs
F( 4, 248)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
ling
Coef.
selec
aosedu
cult
numh
_cons
.4576306
-.0030642
3.285661
.1322686
5.663204
Robust
Std. Err.
.0270437
.0085218
.6562924
.0124666
.0673842
t
16.92
-0.36
5.01
10.61
84.04
P>|t|
0.000
0.719
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
=
253
339.88
0.0000
0.8638
.11173
.5108953
.0137202
4.578278
.1568225
5.795923
Obs
Mean
mujer
hombre
513
487
combined
1000
diff
Std. Err.
Std. Dev.
6.013936
6.281294
.0187567
.0131184
.4248301
.2894973
5.977086
6.255519
6.050785
6.30707
6.144139
.0122942
.3887755
6.120014
6.168265
-.267359
.0231079
-.3127047
-.2220133
t = -11.5700
degrees of freedom =
998
Ha: diff != 0
Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0000
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
17.8581238
133.137117
1 17.8581238
998 .133403925
Total
150.995241
999 .151146388
ling
Coef.
jefeho
_cons
.267359
6.013936
Std. Err.
.0231079
.016126
t
11.57
372.94
Number of obs
F( 1, 998)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
1000
133.87
0.0000
0.1183
0.1174
.36525
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
.2220133
5.982291
.3127047
6.04558
Obs
Mean
seleccio
no selec
776
224
combined
1000
diff
Std. Err.
Std. Dev.
5.990125
6.677688
.0104135
.0084947
.2900873
.1271367
5.969683
6.660948
6.010567
6.694428
6.144139
.0122942
.3887755
6.120014
6.168265
-.6875627
.0199178
-.7266483
-.6484771
t = -34.5200
degrees of freedom =
998
Ha: diff != 0
Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0000
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
82.1739861
68.821255
1 82.1739861
998 .068959173
Total
150.995241
999 .151146388
ling
Coef.
selec
_cons
.6875627
5.990125
Std. Err.
.0199178
.0094268
t
34.52
635.43
Number of obs
F( 1, 998)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
1000
1191.63
0.0000
0.5442
0.5438
.2626
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
.6484771
5.971627
.7266483
6.008624
Number of obs
F( 1, 374)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
ling
Coef.
progdim
_cons
.3866322
5.797287
Robust
Std. Err.
.0300526
.0266137
t
12.87
217.83
=
=
=
=
=
376
165.51
0.0000
0.4168
.22893
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
.3275389
5.744956
.4457255
5.849618
Number of obs
F( 4, 371)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
ling
Coef.
progdim
aosedu
cult
numh
_cons
.3500337
-.003639
5.432314
.1434096
5.183446
Robust
Std. Err.
.0212514
.0112508
1.1358
.0229503
.0979632
t
16.47
-0.32
4.78
6.25
52.91
P>|t|
0.000
0.747
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
376
= 78.65
= 0.0000
= 0.6692
= .1731
.391822
.0184844
7.665726
.1885387
5.376079
Como se puede verse en la salida que sigue la asignacin del programa en los
pueblos no muestra ningn efecto secundario, despus de controlar con otras
variables.
Number of obs
F( 1, 251)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
ling
Coef.
progdims
_cons
.6234366
6.183919
Robust
Std. Err.
.02067
.0139778
t
30.16
442.41
=
=
=
=
=
253
909.71
0.0000
0.6947
.16625
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
.5827278
6.156391
.6641453
6.211448
Number of obs
F( 4, 127)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE
ling
Coef.
progdim
aosedu
cult
numh
_cons
.1743909
-.0041081
2.501123
.0667333
6.247799
Robust
Std. Err.
.0086492
.0035577
.3571234
.0071736
.0358716
t
20.16
-1.15
7.00
9.30
174.17
P>|t|
0.000
0.250
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
=
132
405.29
0.0000
0.9038
.03711
.1915061
.0029319
3.207805
.0809286
6.318782
En esta situacin se percibe que existe un leve efecto que indica que la variacin
de la variable progdim negativamente lo cual no muy significante. Por el ende no
existen otras razones por el cual se pueda existir otros efectos secundarios en la
regresin.
TECNICA DEL PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING (ENPAREJAMIENTO)
. pscore selec aosedu cult numh [pw=ics], pscore(ps98) blockid(blockf1) comsup level(0.001)
(0 real changes made)
****************************************************
Algorithm to estimate the propensity score
****************************************************
Freq.
Percent
Cum.
seleccionado
no seleccionado
776
224
77.60
22.40
77.60
100.00
Total
1,000
100.00
4.8911e+02)
log pseudolikelihood
log pseudolikelihood
log pseudolikelihood
log pseudolikelihood
log pseudolikelihood
=
=
=
=
=
-299.21936
-216.0279
-208.69885
-208.5107
-208.51055
Probit regression
Number of obs
Wald chi2(3)
Prob > chi2
Pseudo R2
selec
Coef.
aosedu
cult
numh
_cons
-.1113049
44.92002
.6610077
-4.548124
Robust
Std. Err.
.0874112
8.270072
.1303035
.7828904
z
-1.27
5.43
5.07
-5.81
P>|z|
0.203
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
508
47.12
0.0000
0.3032
.0600179
61.12907
.9163979
-3.013687
1%
5%
10%
25%
Percentiles
.0007689
.0039387
.0109798
.0478361
50%
.1591133
75%
90%
95%
99%
.4003003
.6131223
.7637703
.907492
Smallest
.0003677
.0004619
.0004631
.000594
Largest
.9486474
.9657537
.9791806
.9946083
Obs
Sum of Wgt.
989
989
Mean
Std. Dev.
.2440408
.2402751
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
.0577321
1.038781
3.137719
******************************************************
Step 1: Identification of the optimal number of blocks
Use option detail if you want more detailed output
******************************************************
**********************************************************
Step 2: Test of balancing property of the propensity score
Use option detail if you want more detailed output
**********************************************************
Variable cult is not balanced in block 1
Variable numh is not balanced in block 1
Variable cult is not balanced in block 2
Inferior
of block
of pscore
selccion de
participante 1 = si,
0 = no
seleccion no selecc
Total
0
.2
.3
.4
.6
.8
513
102
54
83
13
0
39
11
22
63
55
34
552
113
76
146
68
34
Total
765
224
989
n. treat.
n. contr.
ATT
Std. Err.
224
112
0.424
0.056
7.624
DEL
TRATAMIENTO
UTILIZANDO
MATCHING
n. treat.
n. contr.
ATT
Std. Err.
190
799
0.481
0.015
33.113
n. treat.
n. contr.
ATT
Std. Err.
103
283
0.683
0.024
29.016
EL EFECTO
MATCHING
PROMEDIO
DEL
TRATAMIENTO
UTILIZANDO
KERNEL
n. treat.
n. contr.
ATT
Std. Err.
224
765
0.462
Bootstrap statistics
Variable
Number of obs
Replications
Reps Observed
attk
=
=
1000
50
.4294425
.4384843
.4379779
.4944989 (N)
.4974345 (P)
.4974245 (BC)
Note: N = normal
P = percentile
BC = bias-corrected
ATT estimation with the Kernel Matching method
Bootstrapped standard errors
n. treat.
n. contr.
ATT
Std. Err.
224
765
0.462
0.016
28.540
Conclusiones: