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South

China Sea:
The Strategic Implica5ons of Chinas
Ar5cial Islands
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presenta5on to
Conference on Conict in the South China Sea
co-sponsored by the Council on Southeast Asian Studies and
Ins5tute for Vietnamese Culture and Educa5on
MacMillen Center for Interna5onal Area Studies
Yale University, New Haven, May 6-7,2016

Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Na5onalism
Fisheries
Hydrocarbons
Geo-strategic Impera5ves
Conclusion

1. Chinese Na5onalism
Elite na5onalism
Great Dream of
Na5onal Revitalisa5on
Great na5onal
rejuvena5on
Mass na5onalism
an5-Japanese
Chauvinism aggressive
patrio5sm/impunity
Hac5vism

Chinas Posi5on Paper


on the South China Sea (2014)
Chinese ac5vi5es in the South China Sea
date back to over 2,000 years ago. China
was the rst country to discover, name,
explore and exploit the resources of the
South China Sea Islands and the rst to
con5nuously exercise sovereign powers
over them.

Domes5c Actors
Fishing industry
Oil industry
China Na5onal Oshore Oil Corpora5on (CNOOC)

Provincial governments
Mari5me Enforcement Agencies
Coast Guard, State Oceanographic Administra5on

Peoples Libera5on Army Navy

2. Fisheries

Hainan Baosha 001

32,000 ton seafood processing ship

3. Hydrocarbons

Oil Reserves

Chinas Na5onal Mobile Territory


HYSY 981

4. Geo-strategic Impera5ves
U.S. Rebalancing is Containment
Counter-interven5on strategy
Protec5on of Sea Lines of
Communica5on
Power Projec5on
Naval Bases Hainan and Woody Islands
Ar5cial Islands forward opera5ng bases

United States
Rebalancing is
Containment of
China

Chinas Counter-IntervenDon Strategy


Put U.S. Forces in
Western Pacic at Risk

Protec5on of Major Shipping Routes

PLAN
Exercise in
South
China Sea
Early 2014

Power Projec5on Naval Bases

Woody Island, Paracels

Sansha raised
to prefecturelevel city in July
2012 with
continuing
responsibility
over Paracel
Islands,
Macclesfield
Bank and the
Spratly Islands

Chinas ArDcial Islands Not Land ReclamaDon

China is Only Catching Up

Subi Reef

5. Conclusion
What is the purpose?
China Says

Improve living condi5ons


Meteorological data
Scien5c research
Search and rescue
Shelter for shing boats
Base for oil explora5on
Support Coast Guard
Military defence

Analysts Say
Forward Opera5ng Bases
Fuel storage
Piers for naval combatants
Military aircrai
Long-range radar
Advanced an5-aircrai
missile systems
Air Defence Iden5ca5on
Zone

South China Sea:


The Strategic Implica5ons of Chinas
Ar5cial Islands
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Email: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au
Website: Scribd.com

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