Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Poblacin
(habitantes)
4,706
5,114
4,654
6,563
Censo 1
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
1,981
1,993
Censo 2
1,981
1,993
2,007
1,993
2,007
2,007
Tasa (%/ao)
0.96
-0.05
1.13
-0.75
1.09
2.93
Censo 1
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
Censo 2
1,981
1,981
1,993
1,993
Censo 3
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
Tasa (%/ao)
-0.02
1.06
1.14
1.23
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
2,007
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
Curva seleccionada
Poblacin de ao base
Tasa de crecimiento
Pf8
6,563 habitantes
1.06 %/ao
TODO ARITMETICO
Ao
###
###
###
###
###
r=
###
###
###
###
###
###
Curva seleccionada:
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
Curva 2 =
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
Tasa (%/ao)
1.16
###
###
###
Tasa (%/ao)
0.94
###
###
###
Diferencias
###
0
473
5,474
335
8,905
149
5,291
11
399
848
508
587
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
Curva 5 =
Poblacin
(habitantes)
4,706
5,114
4,654
6,563
Censo 1
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
1,981
1,993
Censo 2
1,981
1,993
2,007
1,993
2,007
2,007
Tasa (%)
0.93
-0.05
0.95
-0.78
0.96
2.49
Censo 1
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
Censo 2
1,981
1,981
1,993
1,993
Censo 3
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
Tasa (%)
0.84
0.95
-0.25
1.46
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
2,007
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
Curva seleccionada
Poblacin de ao base
Tasa de crecimiento
Pf11
6,563 habitantes
1.30 %
ODO GEOMETRICO
Ao
###
###
###
###
###
log(1+r) =
ara el ao base, en aos.
r =
###
###
###
###
###
Curva seleccionada:
Tasa seleccionada:
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
Curva 2 =
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
Tasa (%)
1.30
###
###
###
Tasa (%)
1.10
###
###
###
Diferencias
###
0
1,205
5,478
1,103
9,542
1,069
3,575
1,534
1,104
6,474
655
123
570
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
:
:
:
:
:
Poblacin
(habitantes)
4,706
5,114
4,654
6,563
Censo 1
Censo 2
Censo 3
Pf1
1,972
1,981
1,993
Pf2
1,972
1,981
2,007
Pf3
1,972
1,993
2,007
Pf4
1,981
1,993
2,007
Constante
A =
B =
C =
A =
B =
C =
A =
B =
C =
A =
B =
C =
Censo 1
1,972
Censo 2
1,981
Constante
A =
B =
C =
Valor
6,563.0
150.86
2.958
Censo 3
1,993
Censo 4
2,007
2,007
6,563
2,667
6,563
6,563
6,563
6,563
Curva seleccionada
Constante de poblacin (A)
Constante de poblacin (B)
Constante de poblacin (C)
=
=
=
=
Pf5
6,563.0 habitantes
150.86 habitantes/ao
2.958 habitantes/ao2
ODO PARABOLICO
Ao
###
###
###
###
###
A=
###
###
###
###
###
C=
B=
A=
###
C=
Curva Pf2:
Curva
Ao
###
###
###
###
Valor
2,667.1
-197.70
-3.984
6,563.0
63.45
0.297
6,563.0
191.89
3.967
6,563.0
230.42
6.719
Curva Pf3:
Ao
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
C=
Diferencias
A=
0
3,896
1,079
859
2,023
105
###
###
habitantes/ao
#
#
#
#
1P =
2P =
Pn - Po
n-1
( Pn - Pn-1) - ( P1 - Po)
n-2
Poblacin
(habitantes)
4,706
5,114
4,654
6,563
3.0 Interpolando
Ao
1,975
1,985
1,995
2,005
Poblacin base
Prom. de los inc. variables
Prom. de los inc. de inc. Variables
Poblacin
(habitantes)
4,842
4,960
4,926
6,290
Pn = 6,563
1P = 573.67
2P = 759.50
DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES
2P 2
les de poblacin
Pf = Po ( 1 + r t )
Po =
r =
t = 0, en
6,563 habitantes
1.06 %/ao
2,007
Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) t
Po =
r =
t = 0, en
6,563 habitantes
1.30 %
2,007
Pf = A + B t + C t 2
A =
B =
C =
t = 0, en
6,563.0 hab.
150.86 hab./ao
2.958 hab./ao2
2,007
6,563
573.67
759.50
2,007
Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) t
Po =
t = 0, en
r =
6,563 habitantes
2,007
1.20 %
Aritmtica
Geomtrica
Parablica
6,563
6,632
6,702
6,771
6,841
6,910
6,979
7,049
7,118
7,187
7,257
7,326
7,396
7,465
7,534
7,604
7,673
7,743
7,812
7,881
7,951
8,020
8,090
8,159
6,563
6,648
6,734
6,822
6,910
7,000
7,091
7,183
7,276
7,371
7,466
7,563
7,662
7,761
7,862
7,964
8,067
8,172
8,278
8,385
8,494
8,604
8,716
8,829
6,563
6,717
6,877
7,042
7,214
7,391
7,575
7,764
7,959
8,160
8,367
8,580
8,799
9,024
9,255
9,492
9,734
9,983
10,237
10,497
10,764
11,036
11,314
11,598
Incrementos
Variables
6,563
6,662
6,769
6,883
7,005
7,135
7,272
7,416
7,569
7,729
7,896
8,071
8,254
8,444
8,642
8,848
9,061
9,281
9,510
9,745
9,989
10,240
10,499
10,765
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
Poblacion en miles
8,000
7,000
6,000
2,005
2,010
2,015
2,020
2,025
2,030
2,035
Tiempo en aos
C urva
Geomtrica
Parablica
Incrementos Variables
Tasa Referencial
Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) t
Po =
r =
t = 0, en
Ao
Horizonte
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
6,563 habitantes
1.30 %
2,007
Poblacion
(hab)
6,648
6,734
6,822
6,910
7,000
7,091
7,183
7,276
7,371
7,466
7,563
7,662
7,761
7,862
7,964
8,067
8,172
8,278
8,385
8,494
8,604
8,716
+ m(m + 1)2P2
Ao
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
Tasa Referencial
6,563
6,642
6,721
6,802
6,884
6,966
7,050
7,135
7,220
7,307
7,394
7,483
7,573
7,664
7,756
7,849
7,943
8,038
8,135
8,233
8,331
8,431
8,532
8,635
25
Variables
2,030
2,035
Tasa Referencial