World Vegetable Oil Outlook

The Global Market for Oilseeds and
Vegetable
g
Oils
Presentationthere
on 28
Nov at Oils
& Fats
of Olenex
in Hamburg
somebody
to pick
me Seminar
up tomorrow
at
the airport
Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke, Oil World,

Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals,
E-mail <Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de>
27 Nov 2013
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g
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global
research
and
there somebody
me up
tomorrow
at market analyses for
oilseeds, oils
& fats and oilmeals
the airport
unbiased information on the past and current global supply, demand
and price developments as well as forecasts

Daily, weekly and monthly publications on www.oilworld.de
27 Nov 2013
17 OILS & FATS
The huge palm oil supplies of last

year have been disposed of.
World stocks of palm oil reached
a record 11.6 Mn T as of end-Dec
2012, thereof:
Malaysia 2
2.6
6 & Indonesia 4.0
4 0 Mn T
With consumption picking up
sharply, stocks early-Sept had
declined by 1.8 Mn T in Malaysia
& Indonesia combined
Palm oil output
p smaller than
expected recently.
Only moderate rise in world
stocks in Oct/Dec
Annual Stocks / Usage Ratios (%)

22
Palm Oil
Soya Oil
20
Sun Oil
17 Oils/Fats
18
16
14
12
10
8
99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
27 Nov 2013
The annual growth in

world palm oil supplies
and usage were at or near
record highs in 2012/13
PALM OIL: World Supplies & Usage

6
Annual Growth in Mn T
Mn T
Supply Change
Usage Change
5
But the growth will be
4
slowing down in 2013/14
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
3
the airport
2
1
0
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
27 Nov 2013
Energy Market Impacts:

Palm oil prices (red line)
traded largely sideways in
March/Aug 2013
Daily Prices of Crude Palm Oil & Brent Oil (US-$/T)

1050
Crude palm oil, cif Rott.
1000
Brent crude oil, Brent/ICE
950
But palm oil appreciated

900
by $ 90-120 in the 5 weeks
to Nov 1 on smallerthere
than somebody
850 to pick me up tomorrow at
theand
airport
expected production
800
stocks and big demand
In Europe palm oil usage
for energy increased by
0.9 Mn T in 2012/13
750
700
SepOct NovDecJa13 FebMar AprMayJun Jly AugSepOct Nov
Prices from 3 Sept 2012 until 26 Nov 2013

27 Nov 2013
Arg. soya oil prices fell to the

lowest level in 32 months in
August 2013
reducing the premium over palm
oil to US $ 100
For vegetable oils most the
bearishness already discounted
But much greater downward
potential for oilmeal prices
Daily Prices of Soya Oil & RBD Palm Olein (US-$/T)

1600
1050
1400
900
Soya oil, Arg.fob
1200
750
1000
600
RBD palm olein, Mal.fob
800
450
600
300
Soya oil Premiums/discounts
400
150
200
-150
Ja10 Jun SepJa11 JunSep Ja12 JunSep Ja13 Jun Nov
Daily prices from 1 Jan 2010 until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
Soybean and Meal Prices Overvalued in Chicago

CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)
1400
CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures (US$/ST)

460
440
1350
Jan 2014
1300
420
400
380
1250
May 2014
1200
360
340
1150
Aug'13
Dec 2013
320
Sep
Oct
Nov
Daily futures from 1 Aug 2013 until 26 Nov 2013
50-day moving average
300
NovDecJan13 Feb Mar Apr May JunJly Aug Sep Oct Nov
Daily futures from 2 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
CBOT: Daily Corn Futures (c/bu)

December 2013 position
650
CBOT: Daily Wheat Futures (c/bu)

950
900
600
850
550
800
750
500
450
Daily futures
400
Nov'12Ja'13 Feb Mar Apr May JunJly AugSep Oct Nov
Daily futures 1 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013
700
650
Dec 2013 position

50-day
y moving
g average
g
600
OctNov DecJa13Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly AugSepOct Nov
Daily futures 19 Oct 2012 until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
10 Oilseeds : W orld Crushings

450
Total and An nu al Ch ang e (M n T)
35
400
30
W orld Crushings
350
25
300
20
250
15
200
10
150
100
A nnual change
50
0
92/93
-5
-10
95/96
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
27 Nov 2013
Crushings of 10 Oilseeds (Mn T)

100
China the world largest
crusher - Large and new
capacities (competitive)
- China has become a
net exporter of soy meal
90
China
80
70
60
U.S.A.
50
In Brazil the domestic
crushers lost market
shares to soybean
exporters
EU-27
40
30
Brazil
I di
India
20
10
Argentina
95/96 97/98 99/1 0 01/0 2 03/0 4 05/0 6 07/0 8 09/1 0 11/12 13/14
October / September
27 Nov 2013
12 OILMEALS : World Disappearance

Change from Previous Season (in Mn T)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
4
-4
-6
-8
Soyameal
y
12 Meals
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
27 Nov 2013
Weekly Prices of Soya Pellets, 47% Arg., fob (US-$/T)

700
600
2011
2012
2013
500
400
300
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly AugSep Oct NovDec
Prices for 2013 until Nov 26

27 Nov 2013
Monthly Prices of Soya Meal, 48%, Brazil

with 10-yea r avera ge Ja n 1998 - D ec 2007 (in U S-$/T)
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
Soya pellets, 48%, Brazil, cif Rott.
Average 1998-2007: US-$ 220
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 1 2 '13
From Oct 1997 until 26 Nov 2013

27 Nov 2013
2 OILMEALS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T)

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Soya
y p
pell,, 48%,Brazil,cif
,
, Rott
Rape meal,34%,fob ex-mill Hmb
0
A/J11 O/D11 A/J12 O/D12 A/J13 O/D13 A/J14
J/M11 J/S11 J/M12 J/S12 J/M13 J/S13 J/M14
27 Nov 2013
3 OILSEEDS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T)

750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Soybeans,
y
U.S., cif Rotterdam
Sunseed, EU, cif Amsterdam
Rapeseed,Europe,00,cif Hamburg
A/J11 O/D11 A/J12 O/D12 A/J13 O/D13 A/J14

J/M11 J/S11 J/M12 J/S12 J/M13 J/S13 J/M14
27 Nov 2013
Soybeans Dominate the Global Oilseed Market
The Outlook
Th
O tl k
of Soybeans &
other Oilseeds
27 Nov 2013
Global Production of 10 Oilseeds

2013/14 = 494.4 Mn T
10 Oilseeds - - 494.4 Mn T
India 8%
China 10%
Soybeans 58%
Argentina 12%
Brazil 18%
Other 3 Oilseeds 2%
Copra & Palmkernels 4%
Groundnuts 6%
Canada & U.S.A. 24%

C.I.S. 7%
EU-27 6%
Rapeseed 14%
Cottonseed 9%
Other ctries 15%
Sunflowerseed 8%
27 Nov 2013
In past 25 years world

10 Oilseeds: World Area and Production
oilseed production more than 50 0
Production (Mn T)
doubled (strong demand)
46 0
Rising acreage and yields
42 0
About half of the acreage

increased came from grains.
But this shift will slow down.
38 0
Agricultural land has become

a limiting factor worldwide,
big potential in Russia + Braz
26 0
Area (Mn ha)
34 0
30 0
22 0
18 0
Land values more than

doubled in past 6 years
14 0
88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01
04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14

27 Nov 2013
In 13/14 USA and South

America account for:
- 80% of world exports of
10 oilseeds (131 Mn T)
10 OILSEEDS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T)

45
40
U.S.A.
35
30
-95% of world soybean
exports (total 109 Mn T)
25
20
In 2020:
the airport
Brazil + Arg will have to
15
produce at least 162-167
10
Mn T of soybeans (vs
Canada
130 in 2013).
5
Huge logistical needs !
Australia
Brazil
Oth. America
Ukraine
89/90
92/93
95/96
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
27 Nov 2013
17 Oils & Fats: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T)
Indonesia & Malaysia

have exported 43.5
Mn T of oils & fats in
2012/13,
25
Indonesia
20
15
. . thus accounting for

Malaysia
58% of total world
the airport
10
exports all oils &
fats (76 Mn) in 12/13
Argentina
5
U.S.A.
Canada
Ukraine
90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13
27 Nov 2013
10
The US likely to further

boost net imports of
oils/ fats to a record
2.0 Mn T in 2013/14
U.S.A.: Exports & Imports of 17 Oils & Fats ( Mn T )

Growing Domestic Supply Deficits Boost US Import Needs
4,5
4
Exports
3,5
. . Part of the story is

3
that the domestic
to pick me up tomorrow at
2,5
crush industry there somebody
the airport
cannot compete
2
. . Thus 44% of the US
soybean crop was
recently exported
Imports
15
1,5
1
93/94
91/92
97/98
95/96
01/02
05/06
09/10
13/14
99/00
03/04
07/08
11/12
Oc to b er/ Sept em be r
27 Nov 2013
Significant improvement in
production in most
countries in 2013/14
10 Oilseeds: Estimated Production Change in 2013/14

Annual Change from 2012/13 ( in Mn T)
Big increases in Argentina,

Brazil and the C.I.S.
India: Higher oilseed output
in 2013/14; slowdown of
veg. oil import needs; but
some crop damage
Major exception is China.
Much higher import needs.
4
2
0
-2
C.I.S.
EU
USA
Can
Bra
Arg
India
Australia
China
27 Nov 2013
11
CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings
Rising Chinese
import dependence
on declining domestic oilseed crops
Competition of
other crops
Total agricultural
land shrinking
g
96
88
80
72
64
56
48
40
32
24
16
8
0
Crushings (Mn T)
Production (Mn T)
92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
27 Nov 2013
CHINA: Imports of Oilseeds and Oils & Fats

CHINA: Rapidly rising
import requirements
Mainly of soybeans, but
also of rapeseed and
other agri commodities
Big jump in oilseed
imports by 9-10 Mn T is
likely in 2013/14
g stocks of
China building
oilseeds, oils & grains
70
Mn T
60
Oilseeds
50
40
30
20
Oils & Fats
10
0
92/93
95/96
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
27 Nov 2013
12
Imp orts o f S oybeans (M n T)

70
Ch ina
60
Re st of world
50
40
30
20
10
0
91/ 92 93/ 94 95/ 96 97/ 98 99/ 00
01 /02 03 /04 05 /06 07 /08 09 /10 11/ 12 13/ 14F
90/ 91 92/ 93 94/ 95 96/ 97 98/ 99
00 /01 02 /03 04 /05 06 /07 08 /09 10/ 11 12/ 13
Octob er/Septem ber

27 Nov 2013
The U.S.A.:
This summer, drought
damaged the US soya crop;
but less than expected
Soybean Crop Trend

140
Mn T
120
Reports about better than
expected yields in US soya,
confirmed by USDAs Nov 7
upward revision by 3.0 Mn T
100
80
U.S.A.
60
40
20
0
80/81
86/87
92/93
98/99
04/05 10/11
77/78
83/84
89/90 95/96
01/02
07/08
13/14
27 Nov 2013
13
World Soybean Production (Mn T)

and US Market Share (in %)
300
Mn T
270
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
81/82
70
%
World Production
60
50
40
U.S.A. Share in %
30
20
87/88
94/95
99/00
05/06
13/14
27 Nov 2013
Growing dependence on South
America - - but supply risks

owing to weather, strikes,
infrastructure shortages +
political issues (Argentina !)
Soybean Crop Trend

160 Mn T
140
120
With good weather from now,

higher plantings should boost S.
Amer. soybean output to a new
high in early 2014 by 1315 Mn T
100
80
U.S.A.
60
In 2013/14 S. American soya crop
70 Mn T above the US crop !
Favorable weather + crop outlook
in Brazil, Paraguay & Uruguay.
In Argentina very good rains in
Nov, following drought in Aug/Oct
40
20
Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay
0
80/81
86/87
92/93
98/99
04/05
10/11
77/78
83/84
89/90
95/96
01/02
07/08
13/14
27 Nov 2013
14
SOYBEANS : Output in 5 South American Countrie s

(Mn T)
13/14F
12/13
11/12 10/11
08/09
Brazil . . . . 88.20*
81.60
67.92 75.32
57.17
55.00*
Argentina
48.50* 39.70* 49.20*
31.50*
9.30*
9.00*
4.04*
7.38*
4.15
Paraguay .
2.70*
Bolivia . . .
2.60
2.37
1.78*
1.62
3.30*
3.20*
2.45*
1.80*
1.09*
Uruguay. .
Total . . . . 158.50*
144.90 116.48 135.48
95.52
In Brazil concern about crop losses from caterpillar infestation. The Bra
Government declared the state of emergency for Mato Grosso to
better control the disease (imports of non-authorized pesticides).
27 Nov 2013
The Argentine weather uncertainty

i one off the
is
th biggest
bi
t potential
t ti l
bullish factors on the supply side
27 Nov 2013
15
ARGENTINA : Soybe a n Bala nce ( Mn T )

March / Feb
Mar / Nov
2013F 2012
2011
13/14F 12/13 11/12
Open stocks
Open.stocks
3 22* 3.30*
3.22*
3 30* 4.30*
4 30*
3 22* 3.30*
3.22*
3 30* 4.30*
4 30*
Crop . . . . . . 48.50* 39.70* 49.20*
48.50* 39.70* 49.20*
Imports . . . .
-*
.01
-*
.01
Exports . . . .
Crushings . .
Other use . .
End. stocks
7.90* 6.34
36.50* 31.40
2.12*
5.20*
2.04*
3.22*
10.40
37.83
1.98*
3.30*
7.73* 6.30
29.93* 26.52
1.47*
12.60*
10.31
30.13
1.41* 1.41*
8.76* 11.66*
27 Nov 2013
Argentina:
Reserved soybean
selling by farmers
Keeping soybeans
as a hedge against
inflation and
currency
devaluation
Daily Selling Price of Argentine Peso per US-$

11
10
Official exchange rate

Inofficial exchange rate
9
8
7
6
5
4
Nov11Ja12 Mar May Jly
Sep Nov Ja13 Mar
May Jly
Sep Nov
Daily prices from Nov 2011 until 27 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
16
Assuming normal weather

in South America:
Ample oilseed supplies
ahead in 2013/14.
Biggest increases in
soybeans, sunflowerseed,
rapeseed and palmkernels
In 2013/14 world
production seen surging
by 28 Mn T and opening
stocks up 8 Mn T,
10 OILSEEDS: World Production (Mn T)

Avg.Change
15 Years
13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11

Soybeans . . . . 286.51* 267.16* 240.69 264.93
Cottonseed . . . 43.31
43 31* 44.99
44 99* 47.17
47 17 43.55
43 55
Grdnuts,shelled 29.14* 28.01* 27.25 27.75
Sunflowerseed
40.15* 35.58* 39.51 33.60
Rapeseed . . . . 67.72* 63.92* 61.43 61.82
Sesameseed .
Palmkernels .
Copra . . . . . .
Linseed . . . . .
Castorseed . .
Total. . . . . . .
.
3.93*
3.74*
3.83
3.83
. 14.63* 13.94* 13.29 12.54
.
5.33*
5.38*
5.26
4.80
.
2.27*
2.27
2.01*
2.01
2.13
1.82
.
1.42*
1.33*
2.00
1.56
. 494.42* 466.05* 442.56 456.20
to 12/13
+3.5%
+1 8%
+1.8%
+2.1%
+2.8%
+4.5%
+2.3%
+7.4%
+0.4%
-1.0%
1.0%
+0.7%
+3.3%
boosting world supplies

by 36 Mn T - - > BEARISH !
27 Nov 2013
USA: Soybean
exports again
front-loaded in
Sept/Febr 2013/14
Sharply higher
exports in 2013/14
Frontloaded exp
US exp. 18.3 Mn T
i Sep/Nov
in
S /N vs 16.8
16 8
U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T )

S ep t em be r / A ug u st
13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10
Op. stocks .
3.83
4.61
5.85 4.11
3.76
C
Crop
......
88 66
88.66
82 56 84.19
82.56
84 19 90.61
90 61 91.42
91 42
Imports . . . .
.60*
1.01
.46
.42
.43
08/09
5.58
80 75
80.75
.38
35.95
37.12
Exports
. . . . to 40.00*
there
somebody
pick me up
tomorrow
at 40.87 40.83
45.45* 46.11* 46.35* 44.85* 47.67
Crushings . .
the airport
Other use . .
2.74*
2.29* 2.42* 3.56* 3.00
34.84
45.23
2.88
End. stocks .
4.90*
3.83
4.61
5.85
4.11
3.76
Stock s/usage
5.6%
4.5%
5.4%
6.6%
4.5%
4.5%
85% exp. till Febr !
27 Nov 2013
17
World production of
rapeseed & canola
set to increase by
3.8 Mn T to a record
67 7 Mn T
67.7
Biggest jump in
Canada
Farmer selling?
CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T )

Augu st / J uly
13/14F
12/13
11/12
10/11
Op stocks
Op.
.61
61
.75
75*
2 19
2.19
2 75
2.75
14.02*
14.61
13.10*
Output . . . . . 16.50*
.12*
.13
.10
.21
Imports . . . .
Exports . . . .
Crushings . .
Other use. . .
7.70*
7.10*
.43*
7.27*
6.72
.30*
8.76*
7.00
.39*
7.20
6.31
.36*
End.stocks. .
2.00*
.61
.75*
2.19
27 Nov 2013
Sunflowerseed and Oil
Weekly Oilseed Prices in the EU (US-$/T)
Record crops of sunfl.seed in 780
the EU (8.5 Mn T) and C.I.S.

720
(20.2 Mn) this year
World output up 4
4.6
6 Mn T - -
creating price discounts
660
600
In Sep/Nov sunseed
prices
there
somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
below soya & rapeseed

the airport
540
Black Sea sun oil started to
480
recover- - now at US $ 910

World sun oil output +1.7 Mn
420
Sunseed, EU
Rapeseed, EU
360
Jan11 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja12Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja13 Mar May Jly Sep Nov
From Jan 2011 to 14 Nov 2013

27 Nov 2013
18
Growing Dominance of Palm Oil & Palmkernel Oil Worldwide

World consumption of all
oils & fats more than
doubled in the latest 20
years to 188 Mn T in 12/13
y
World Consumption of 17 Oils & Fats

200
Mn T
palm oil + palmkernel oil

15 other oils & fats
150
Palm oil and Pkernel oil:

annual growth rates were
more than double of those
of other oils & fats.
Today both oils account
worldwide for :
- - 33% of consumption
- - 63% of exports
100
50
0
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
27 Nov 2013
Palm oil has become

the most important
veg. oil worldwide
Palm oil production was
boosted by more than 4
times in the past 20 years
from 14 Mn T in 1993/94
and is estimated to reach
59 Mn T in 2013/14,
Th
Thereof:
f Malaysia
M l
i 20 M
Mn
and Indonesia 30 Mn T
17 Oils & Fats: World Production (Mn T)

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
4 Animal Fats
20
15
10
5
0
Palm oil
Soya oil
9 Other oils
Rape oil
Sun oil
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
27 Nov 2013
19
Rising Dependence on Palm Oil
17 Oils & Fats

W orld Exports in Mn T
1997/98 - 2012/13:
48
Palm oil exports (blue line) 45
42
almost quadrupled
39
36
Exports of all 16 other
33
Oils/Fats + 48%
30
27
24
In Oct/Sept 2013/14:
21
Palm oil exports (blue line) 18
15
likely to rise to 45 Mn T
12
9
Combined exports of soya,
6
sun & rapeseed oils (red) to 3
recover to 21 Mn T
0
97/98
Soy, Ra pe, Sun Oils

4 Anim al F ats
Palm O il
9 Other
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
27 Nov 2013
The Success Story of the past 30 Years

Substantial growth in world production of palm oil
In 1980:
4.6 Mn T
or
8% of 17 oils & fats
In 1990: 11.0 Mn T
or
14%
In 2000: 21.9 Mn T
or
19%
there 46.1
somebody
at
In 2010:
Mn toT pick me
or up tomorrow
27% (only
6% of area)
the airport
In 2011:
50.8 Mn T
or
28% (57% of exports)
In 2012: 53.7 Mn T (plus 5.9 Mn T of Palmkern oil)
In 2013: 56.3 Mn T
In 2020 at least 78 Mn T of palm oil required
27 Nov 2013
20
SOYA OIL: Production in the past 30 Years

In 1980:
In
I 1990:
1990
In 2000:
In 2010:
In 2011:
In 2012:
In 2013:
13.4 Mn T
16 1 M
16.1
Mn T
25.5 Mn T
40.2 Mn T
or
or
or
or
23% of 17 oils & fats

20%
19%
23%
41.5 Mn T
41.7 Mn T
42.8 Mn T
or
or
or
23%
22%
23%
27 Nov 2013
17 Oils & Fats: World Consumption, by Category

Jan/Dec 2012 total: 183.9 Mn T
World consumption of
oils/fats reached 184 Mn T
in Jan/Dec 2012
Of which:
Food use 133.7 Mn T
24.3 Mn (13.2%)
133 7 Mn (72
133.7
(72.7%)
7%)
17.1 Mn (9.3%)
Biofuels 24.3 Mn T
8.8 Mn (4.8%)
Chemicals 17.1 Mn T
Other use 8.8 Mn T
Food use
Chemicals
Other (animal feed, etc.)

Energy (biofuels)
27 Nov 2013
21
New Biodiesel
Programme in Brazil:
B7 to be implemented
probably in March 2014
This will imply a rise of
90-100 per month
Usage of soya oil for biodiesel may rise 0.7 Mn T
in 2014,
requiring sharply higher
soybean crush
BRAZIL : Biodiese l P roduction ( 1000 T )

January / Dec ember
B iodies el
2014F 2013
2012 2011 2010
P roduc tion . . 3380* 2600* 2386 2347 2096
2009
1418
Feeds toc k
S oy a oil. .
Tallow . . .
Cotton oil .
Other oils
1098
225
62
33
used
. . 2700* 2020*
..
505*
420*
..
90*
75*
..
85*
85
85*
85
1794 1906 1738

410
315
266
109
86
50
73
40
42
Bearish for meal

27 Nov 2013
ARGENTINA
: S oya Oil Bala nce (1000 T)

January / Dec em ber
2014F 2013F 2012 2011 2010
260*
267* 515* 377* 300*
Open. stoc k s . . .
P roduc tion . . . . . 7373*
6722* 6349 7114 7000
E xports . . . . . . . 5000*
4480* 4031 4378 4941
Cons umption .
of whic h for
biodies el . . .
elec tric ity . .
other us e(a) .
2009
430*
5772
4560
..
2270*
2249* 2567* 2597* 1982*
1342*
..
..
..
1900*
200*
170*
2104* 2455 2427 1815

-*
145* 112*(b ) 170* 167*
1179
163*
E nding stoc ks
363*
363
260* 267
260
267* 515
515*
(a) M ainly food.(b) M ore s un oil used for food.
377*
377
300*
300
27 Nov 2013
22
Rapidly Rising World Consumption of Oils & Fats

Demand Growth
doubled in past 10
years (up 62 Mn T)
biofuels
population
income
Growth in biodiesel
accelerated in 2013
1 7 O ils & F a ts : W o r ld D is a p p e a r a n c e
T o ta l U s a g e a n d A n n u a l C h a n g e (M n T )
1 95
1 80
1 65
1 50
1 35
1 20
1 05
90
75
60
45
30
15
0
W o rld D is a p p e a ra n c e
Annu al Chan ge
8 8 / 8 9 9 1 / 9 2 9 4 / 9 5 9 7 / 9 8 0 0 /0 1 0 3 /0 4 0 6 /0 7 0 9 /1 0
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
13/14
27 Nov 2013
We at Oil World forecast

an increase in global
consumption of 17
oils & fats by 6.7 Mn T
in 2013/14
17 OILS & FATS: Consumption Cha nge (in M n T)

Oc t o b e r /S e p t e m b e r
12/13
11/12 10/11 09/10
13/14 F
EU-27. . . . . . . -0.20 *
+0.26
U.S.A. . . . . . . . +0.27 *
+0.49
Argentina . . . . +0.35 *
-0.93
Brazil . . . . . . . +0.76 *
+0.04
China,
. . me
. +1.08
*
+1.09at
therefor
somebody
toPR
pick
up tomorrow
Sharply higher usage
India
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
+0.83
*
+0.86
the airport
biodiesel in Brazil
Indonesia . . . +1.13 *
+0.95
Malaysia . . . . +0.14 *
+0.19
Others
.
.
.
.
.
.
+2
+2.38
38
*
+2
+2.11
11
S i factor
Swing
f t Indonesia
I d
i
World. . . . . . . +6.73 *
+5.06
-0.33
+1.19
+0.53
+0.15
+1.04
+0.75
+0.99
-0.11
+2 59
+2.59
+6.79
-0.87
+0.90
+0.55
+0.60
+1.09
+0.48
+1.02
+0.08
+2 41
+2.41
+6.26
+0.93
-0.13
+0.79
+0.88
+1.38
+0.73
+0.60
-0.10
+2 12
+2.12
+7.21
27 Nov 2013
23
Concluding Remarks
27 Nov 2013
World Production of 4 Major Oils

Change on Year in Mn T
5
Palm Oil
Sun Oil
Soya Oil
Rape
p Oil
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
October / September
27 Nov 2013
24
CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb)
Soya oil futures are

undervalued on the
CBOT
relative to the world
market
55
53
51
49
47
45
w.heinz@oilworld.de,
k.hildmann@oilworld.de
Dec 2013
43
41
39
37
Nov DecJan13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
Daily futures from 2 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
Daily Prices of Soya Oil and Basis vs. CBOT Futures

1000
600
US-$/T
950
400
900
200
850

800
-200
the airport
points versus CBOT
750
-400
700
650
Jun13
Soya oil, fob Argentina (y1)

Daily basis vs. CBOT soya oil futures (y2)
600
-600
-800
Jly
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Daily prices and basis from 3 June until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
25
Daily Prices of 2 Oils (in US-$/T)

950
Soya oil, fob Argentina
925
900
the875
airport
850
Sun oil, fob Black Sea
825
Aug 1 Aug15
Sep 2 Sep16Sep26
Oct17 Nov 1
Nov26
Daily prices from 1 Aug 2013 until 26 Nov 2013

27 Nov 2013
Daily Prices of 2 Oils (US-$/T)

Coconut oil prices much
too high at US $ 1450 in
2nd week of Nov
1550
1450
1350
Coconut oil, cif Rott.

Crude palm oil, cif Rott.
p
to cur- 1250
Demand response
rent huge price premiums
1150
higher than the losses
done by the terrible there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
1050
typhoon Haiyan
the airport
950
850
750
Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
Oct Nov
Daily prices from 1 March 2013 till 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
26
17 OILS & FATS: Production & Demand

Change From Year Ago in Mn T
10
Production
Demand
8
6
4
2
0
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
10/11
12/13
O ct o b er / Se pt em be r
27 Nov 2013
World production of oils &

fats is likely to rise faster
than consumption in
coming months, mainly on
account of sun oil and
palm oil.
17 OILS & FATS: Production & End'g Stocks

Change From Year Ago in Mn T
10
Production
Ending stocks
In Oct/Dec 2013 the excess

6
of production over demand
somebody
to pick me up tomorrow at
will lead to a recovery there
in
4
world stocks of all oilsthe
& airport
fats
2
Likely to result in some
price pressure in the near
term.
0
-2
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Oc tob er / Se pt em ber
27 Nov 2013
27
17 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage

26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Stocks (Mn T)
Stocks/Usage (%)
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
End - S ept embe r

27 Nov 2013
In Europe palm oil

established a low of US $ 1600
776 in Dec 2012, ending
1400
its price cycle after 48
months
1200
Soya Oil & Palm Oil: Monthly Prices (US-$/MT)

Palm oil, crude cif Rott.
Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill
Th latest
The
l t t low
l
was much
h 1000
above those of preceding
cycles. But veg.oil prices 800
moved to a higher
600
plateau since 2007.
Weakness in crude
prices and
mineral oil p
slow down of biodiesel
production (e.g. USA) are
potential bearish factors
400
200
0
72
77
82
87
92
97
02
07
'13
Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until 26 Nov 2013

27 Nov 2013
28
Thank You
for Your Kind Attention !
If I can be of assistance to you in the future, you are invited to
contact me any time.
More details and background information are given in the Oil World
Weekly & Monthly Reports, which can all be obtained from the
Internet.
Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de
27 Nov 2013

the airport
27 Nov 2013
29

World Vegetable Oil Outlook

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World Vegetable Oil Outlook

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The Global Market for Oilseeds and

Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke, Oil World,

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Company Profil and Services

unbiased information on the past and current global supply, demand

and price developments as well as forecasts

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17 OILS & FATS

The huge palm oil supplies of last

Annual Stocks / Usage Ratios (%)

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The annual growth in

PALM OIL: World Supplies & Usage

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Energy Market Impacts:

Daily Prices of Crude Palm Oil & Brent Oil (US-$/T)

Brent crude oil, Brent/ICE

But palm oil appreciated

Prices from 3 Sept 2012 until 26 Nov 2013

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Arg. soya oil prices fell to the

Daily Prices of Soya Oil & RBD Palm Olein (US-$/T)

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Soybean and Meal Prices Overvalued in Chicago

CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures (US$/ST)

Daily futures from 1 Aug 2013 until 26 Nov 2013

50-day moving average

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CBOT: Daily Corn Futures (c/bu)

CBOT: Daily Wheat Futures (c/bu)

Daily futures 1 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013

Dec 2013 position

Daily futures 19 Oct 2012 until 26 Nov 2013

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10 Oilseeds : W orld Crushings

Total and An nu al Ch ang e (M n T)

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Crushings of 10 Oilseeds (Mn T)

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12 OILMEALS : World Disappearance

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Weekly Prices of Soya Pellets, 47% Arg., fob (US-$/T)

Prices for 2013 until Nov 26

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Monthly Prices of Soya Meal, 48%, Brazil

Soya pellets, 48%, Brazil, cif Rott.

Average 1998-2007: US-$ 220

From Oct 1997 until 26 Nov 2013

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2 OILMEALS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T)

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3 OILSEEDS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T)

A/J11 O/D11 A/J12 O/D12 A/J13 O/D13 A/J14

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Soybeans Dominate the Global Oilseed Market

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Global Production of 10 Oilseeds

Canada & U.S.A. 24%

Other ctries 15%

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In past 25 years world

Rising acreage and yields

About half of the acreage

Agricultural land has become