Turkish Membership to the European Union

International Relations Paper

 Table of contents

Table of contents……………………………………………………………………………………...….p.2
1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………….....p.3
2. A Brief History………………………………………………………………………………………….p.5
3. Criteria for Accession……………………………………………………………………………..…..p.7
4. European Identity……………………………………………………………………………………...p.8
5. The debate
5.1. Is Turkey a European country?.................................................................................p.9
5.2. Geography…………………………………………………………………………….….p.10
5.3. History……………………………………………………………………………………..p.11
5.4. Religion……………………………………………………………………………………p.11
5.5. Demography and Migration……………………………………………………………..p.13
5.6. Geostrategic Importance………………………………………………………………..p.13
5.7. Human rights, minority rights and the principle of liberty…………………………… p.14
5.8. Economy…………………………………………………………………………………..p.15
6. Public Opinion………………………………………………………………………………………..p.16
7. State of Accession Talks……………………………………………………………………………p.16
8. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………p.19
Bibliography…...............……………………………………………………………………………….p.20

2
1. Introduction
The prospect of Turkey’s membership in the European Union has inspired a lively debate
since the European Council decided to open accession negotiations with Turkey on 3 October
2005 after intense bargaining. For the first time, European Heads of State and Government
offered Turkey a concrete perspective of membership more than four decades after its application
for association with the European Economic Community in 1959. This was a turning point in the
long history of the EU-Turkey relations. European leaders were motivated by the impressive
reforms Turkey had carried out following its recognition as a candidate state at the Helsinki
summit in 1999 and the decision to open accession talks was justified by the consideration that
Turkey had sufficiently fulfilled the so-called Copenhagen criteria1 set by the European Council in
1993.
According to these criteria, the candidate country must have achieved stability of
institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law and human rights as well as implementation
of the Community Acquis2 (the rights and obligations that EU countries share) and the existence
of a functioning market economy able to cope with competitive pressures within the EU.
There is no doubt that Turkey has made significant progress toward transforming the
country into a modern democracy and meeting all aspects of the Copenhagen political criteria for
EU accession. But a number of stumbling blocks still remain on Turkey’s road and the negotiation
talks are not progressing easily. In fact, the EU suspended eight of the 35 negotiating areas (or
chapters) due to a lack of progress, in particular on Turkey’s relations with Cyprus (Ankara
Protocol) and human rights, while several EU governments are blocking some parts of the talks.
So far, out of 35, twelve chapters have been opened and only one has been provisionally closed3
(science and research). According to the former Enlargement Commissioner, Olli Rehn, Turkey
still has a long way to go before it can be a full member of the EU; it should recognise Cyprus and
implement the internal reform programme. But the Turkish Minister for EU affairs and Chief
Negotiator, Egemen Bagis, declares that in spite of the difficulties experienced, Turkey still lives in
hope and “is determined to continue the negotiation process in the direction of full membership
with an increased speed”4.
1
See the Presidency Conclusions of the Copenhagen European Council:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/enlargement/ec/pdf/cop_en.pdf p.1 (assessed on 20 January 2010).
2
Source: Eurojargon page on the European Parliament website
http://europa.eu/abc/eurojargon/index_en.htm (assessed on 20 January 2010)
3
This is an overview of the current state of the accession negotiations with Turkey published by the
Commission on 21 December 2009:
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/enlargement_process/accession_process/how_does_a_country_join_the
_eu/negotiations_croatia_turkey/overview_negotiations_tr_en.pdf (assessed on 25 January 2010). The
provisional closure of negotiations on any chapter occurs only when all the Member States are satisfied
with the candidate's progress and the definitive closure at the end of the process:
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/the-policy/process-of-enlargement/closure-and-accession_en.htm (assessed
on 30 January 2010).
4
Egemen Bagis, “EU Diplomacy Papers 2010: Turkey's EU Membership Process: Prospects and
Challenges” www.coleurope.eu/file/content/.../ird/research/.../EDP_5_2010_Bagis.pdf (assessed on 23
January 2010).

3
 Over the past few years, public opinions throughout Europe have been increasingly
sceptical towards the very notion of Turkey joining the EU. On the Turkish side, enthusiasm has
considerably waned because Turks believe that some EU member states have turned too far
away from the very objectives of the EU’s enlargement policy, which are “to support the
democratization process and to facilitate economic and institutional reforms in applicant
countries5”. A variety of arguments are put forward ranging from the size of the country, its socio-
economic conditions and poor human rights record to its significantly Muslim population or the
fear of a massive Turkish migration wave flooding Europe, etc. Some of these arguments reflect
genuine problems while others can easily be refuted. Further, the recent accession of Central and
Eastern European countries revived the debate on the Union’s future and purpose. Discussions
on “European identity” and “the limits of Europe” encouraged considering some of the challenges
posed by Turkish membership.
Many indications suggest that the process will take time until the changes are truly felt in
all parts of Turkish society and recognized by public opinion in Europe. In fact, accession talks are
expected to last for at least 10-15 years and they are described in a Negotiating Framework
established by the European Commission as “an open-ended process, the outcome of which
cannot be guaranteed beforehand”6.
It is clear that the reforms required by the EU are hugely ambitious and that Turks will
need a lot of patience to keep alive their hopes of eventual membership. But the European Union
is a complex entity requiring a set of negotiations, rules, mechanisms complying with different
views. It is not just any loose international alliance. In a large number of policy areas, acting
together is more efficient, influential and successful than each acting alone. Enlargement is about
sharing a common political project based on common values, policies and institutions. Even
though Turkey claims that she is being treated differently from the other applicant countries, the
EU states that any applicant country, whatever its size, its population or its strategic relevance,
must fulfil the accession conditions. So whether or not Turkey eventually accedes to the EU, the
institutional, economic and social consequences would be far-reaching, but no one can deny that
this possible membership would offer considerable opportunities and benefits both for the EU and
for Turkey itself.
The objective of this paper is to provide you with a clearer understanding of the Turkish
membership issue. After presenting a brief history of the EU-Turkish relationship and exploring
the different criteria Turkey must comply with, this paper examines whether Turkey belongs to
Europe in many respects and tackles the very notion of the European Identity. Then, it focuses on
the different aspects of the debate with the main arguments in favour and against Turkey’s
membership. Finally, this paper analyzes the public opinions on the issues previously discussed
and offers an overview of the current state of accession talks.

5
Arikan, H., Turkey and the EU : an awkward candidate for EU membership?, Aldershot, England, 2006, p.
56.
6
Negotiating Framework published on the European Commission on Enlargement website:
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/turkey/st20002_05_tr_framedoc_en.pdf (assessed on 31 January 2010).

4
2. A Brief History
The perspective of Turkey becoming member of the European Union has a long and
troubled history. From the very beginnings of the creation of the EU, Turkey has shown a keen
interest in the integration process in Europe.
But actually its close alignment with the West can go back to well before when the country
adhered to the Council of Europe in 1949, became a full member of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organisation (NATO) in 1952.
The following key dates7 chronologically describe the EU-Turkey relations from 1959 as
the starting point:

• September 1959: Turkey applies for associate membership of the European Economic
Community.

• September 1963: An association agreement known Ankara Agreement is signed to take

Turkey into a Customs Union* with the EEC and to eventual membership. A first financial
protocol is also signed.

• November 1970: The Additional Protocol and the second financial protocol are signed in
Brussels, preparing the ground for the establishment of the customs union.

• During the first half of the 1980s, relations between Turkey and the EEC come to a
virtual freeze following the military coup d'état on 12 September 1980.

• 14 April 1987: Turkey makes an application for full EEC membership which has been
rejected in 1989, on the basis of its economic instability and its human rights record.
However, the Commission explicitly supports Turkey’s eligibility for membership.

• March 1995: Turkey-EU Association Council finalises the agreement creating a customs
union between Turkey and the EU.

• December 1997: At the Luxembourg European Council, Turkey is declared eligible to

become a member of the European Union.

• December 1999: EU Helsinki Council recognises Turkey as an EU candidate country on

an equal footing with other candidate countries.

• March 2001: The EU Council of Ministers adopts EU-Turkey Accession Partnership*.

• March 2001: Turkish government adopts its National Programme for the adoption the
Acquis*.

• September 2001: Turkish parliament adopts over a major constitutional reform in order to
meet the Copenhagen political criteria for EU membership.

7
Source: European Commission on Enlargement : http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/candidate-
countries/turkey/relation/index_en.htm (assessed on 31 January 2010) and Euractiv dossier on Turkey:
http://www.euractiv.com/en/enlargement/eu-turkey-relations/article-129678 (assessed on 31 January 2010).

5
 • 13 December 2002: The Copenhagen summit resolves that if the European Council in
December 2004, on the basis of recommendation from the Commission, decides that
Turkey fulfils the Copenhagen political criteria, the EU would open accession
negotiations. Meanwhile, EU leaders agree to extend and deepen co-operation on the
customs union and to provide Turkey with increased pre-accession financial assistance.

• May 2003: the EU Council of Ministers decides on the principles, priorities, intermediate
objectives and conditions of an Accession Partnership with Turkey.

• January 2004: Turkey signs the protocol banning death penalty in all circumstances, a
move welcomed by the EU.

• 17 Dec. 2004: European Council decides to open accession negotiations with Turkey on
3 October 2005.

• 23 May 2005: Turkey names Economy Minister Ali Babacan as the country's chief
accession negotiator.

• 29 July 2005: Turkey signs a protocol to the Ankara agreement, extending the EU-15
customs union to the ten new member states including Cyprus. Ankara also issues a
declaration on non-recognition of Cyprus.

• 3 October 2005: Adoption by the Council of a Negotiating Framework setting out the
principles governing the negotiations followed by the formal opening of Accession
negotiations with Turkey.

• October 2005: Starting of the screening process concerning the analytical examination of
the Acquis.

• December 2005: Adoption by the Council of a revised Accession Partnership for Turkey.

• 12 April 2006: The selection panel for the European Capital of Culture 2010
recommends Istanbul.

• 12 June 2006: EU starts concrete accession negotiations with Turkey.

• December 2006: Due to the Turkish failure to apply to Cyprus the Additional Protocol to
the Ankara Agreement, the Council decides to follow the Commission’s recommendations
and suspend talks with Turkey on eight of the 35 negotiating chapters.

• 26 June 2007: Two further negotiating chapters, on statistics and financial control, are
opened. However, the opening of the chapter on economic and monetary union is taken
off agenda.

• 22 July 2007: Erdogan's ruling AKP gets re-elected with 47,6%8 (TUIK) of vote in early
parliamentary elections.

• 28 August 2007: Abdullah Gül is elected president of Turkey.

• February 2008: Adoption by the Council of a revised Accession Partnership for Turkey.

8
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute: 2007 Presidential Elections Voter Turnout.
http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Start.do (assessed on 2 February 2010)

6
 • June 2008: Negotiations are opened on two chapters: intellectual property and company
law.

• 2009: The Kurdish initiative is launched with a view to extending cultural and linguistic
rights to the Kurdish minority, whose condition is seen as a major problem in EU
accession talks.

• January 2009: Egemen Bagiş is appointed as Minister for EU accession and chief
negotiator.

• 8 July 2009: Turkey adopts a law aimed at meeting EU criteria to limit the power of the
military courts, despite warnings from the army that this might escalate tensions with
government.

• 10 October 2009: Turkey and Armenia signed a peace accord in Zurich aimed at opening
borders between the neighbouring countries. The rapprochement is seen as a
precondition for Turkish accession.

• 14 October 2009: The latest progress report on Turkish accession is published.

3. Criteria for accession

The requirements for becoming a member of the EU have increased over time as a result
of the development of the EU to cover more policy areas and due to the contentious status of the
candidate countries.
The Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union states that any European country may apply for
membership if it respects the principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and the
rule of law9. But "Europe" and its borders are left undefined in the Treaties. Whether a country is
European or not is a subject to political assessment by the EU institutions. Furthermore, a country
can only become member if it fulfils all criteria of accession.
In order to obtain full EU membership, the candidate countries must fulfil the so-called
“Copenhagen criteria”. These criteria were defined by the 1993 Copenhagen European Council in
an attempt to ensure that new members do not bring insurmountable political and economic
problems into the Union10. Thus as a result of the challenges of Central and East European
countries recent accession, conditionality became a central element of EU enlargement policy.

Copenhagen Criteria11
1. Political: stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect
for and protection of minorities
9
See the Conditions for Enlargement on the European Commission on Enlargement website:
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/the-policy/conditions-for-enlargement/index_en.htm (assessed on 2
February 2010)
10
Christensen, M., Policy Brief-. EU-Turkey relations and the functioning of the EU, May 2009.
http://accesstr.ces.metu.edu.tr/dosya/christensen.pdf (assessed on 5 February 2010)
11
See Accession criteria on the European Commission on Enlargement website:
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/enlargement_process/accession_process/criteria/index_en.htm (assessed on
5 February 2010)

7
2. Economic: a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and
market forces in the EU.
3. Capacity to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the objectives of
political, economic and monetary union.
4. Adoption of the entire body of European legislation and its effective implementation
through appropriate administrative and judicial structures12.

Turkey was granted candidate status by the Helsinki European Council Summit in 1999,
and accession negotiations began in October 2005. Accession negotiations are based on the
principle of differentiation - which means that each candidate country's length of negotiations
depends on its level of preparation for accession. With this new principle, the EU was able to give
Turkey the status of candidate country as its stage of preparation did not fit into any potential
groupings with the other candidate countries.
In addition, the new principle made it possible for the EU not to commit to any specific
date of entry while providing incentives for the candidate countries to continue to reform and
prepare for membership. As a result, Turkey was kept on the accession process without specific
commitments by the EU.
The latest accession principle is the ‘absorption capacity’ of the EU. The aim of the
principle is to ensure that the speed of the European integration process is not disturbed by the
accession of new member states. It is often used as a political tactic by the EU as enlargement
can always been delayed on the grounds that the EU is not ready to absorb new members.
Moreover, the concept has been very prevalent in the discussion over Turkish enlargement which
is considered as a concern for the institutional and socio-economic balance in the EU with its
relatively large population, economic impact, and socio-cultural differences13.

4. European Identity
The accession of Turkey to the EU raises profound questions about the very nature of
European identity and the boundaries of its civilisation. The debate turns on two opposing
conceptions of European identity. On Mr Sarkozy’s view, European identity is linked with ethnicity,
history, geography and a Christian heritage.
Another way of seeing European identity is to consider that Europe is about values: democracy,
human rights, the rule of law, religious and political tolerance. Any country that embraces this way
of life becomes European by virtue of this choice and is therefore eligible for EU membership14.

12
Membership criteria also require that the candidate country must have created the conditions for its
integration through the adjustment of its administrative structures, as underlined by the Madrid European
Council in December 1995.
13
Timmerman, C., Karlsson, I., European and Turkish voices in favour and against Turkish accession to the
European Union, New York : P.I.E. Peter Lang, 2008, p. 100.
14
Blair, D., Will Turkey's EU membership dream come true, 24 September 2009,
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/will-turkeys-eu-membership-dream-come-true-
1895718.html (assessed on 5 February 2010).

8
In fact, people in Europe fear a gradual deterioration of the identity of Europe because of Turkish
EU-accession. But it is important to know what actually identity means and when it is being
threatened. Identity concerns characteristics that give people an individuality that makes them
different from others. The most visible and decisive ones are language and religion, if we are
talking about population groups rather than about individuals. In the EU the coexistence of
different languages is still a source of barriers but this does not need to be an obstacle to the
creation of a European identity, especially if the speakers of these languages many and varied,
who consider themselves part of different nations, are familiar with one another through their
historic and geographical ties15.

The European Union has become a multiethnic entity. Individual EU countries may be
more or less homogeneous, but at the continental level, heterogeneity is dominant in the fact that
Europe is composed of distinct nations16. The only universally binding identity in such a European
mosaic is the identity of “Europeanness” which must hold together different identities17.

The statement by Giscard d’Estaing that Turkey “does not belong in a Europe which is
characterised by Christianity”, is notorious. This statement, in its turn, reinforced the prejudice of
Turkish commentators that the EU is a “Christian club”18.
Little by little, Turkish people perceive the European Union as a Christian club, which
doesn't consider Turkey as part of a Europe defined as a cultural and religious homogeneous
block.

5. The debate

5.1. Is Turkey a European country?

Turkey has always been considered to be an awkward candidate by the EU. In fact, as a
long-standing aspirant for EU membership, Turkey seems to be more different, or “less
European”, from the other EU member states.
The issue of Turkish membership has heated the debate on “whether Turkey is
European”. But the answer to this question depends on a variety of factors such as geography,
culture, history… the choices made by Turkey itself and the acceptance of other European
countries.

15
Timmerman, C., Rochtus, D., European and Turkish voices in favour and against Turkish accession to the
European Union, New York : P.I.E. Peter Lang, 2008, p. 25.
16
Akçapar, B., Turkey's new European era : foreign policy on the road to EU membership, Rowman &
Littlefield Publishers, 2007, p. 26.
17
Littoz-Monnet, A., Turkey and the European Union, the implications of a specific enlargement, 2004,
http://www.egmontinstitute.be/papers/050404Turquie-ALM-BVP.pdf (assessed on 12 February 2010).
18
Öymen, O., Turkish challenge: Turkey, Europe and the world towards the 21st century, Nicosia, Northern
Cyprus : Rustem, 2000, p. 122.

9
5.2. Geography

There has been much debate about the “Europeanness” of Turkey, on the basis that only
3% of its territory lies in geographic Europe. It has been one of the main arguments put forward
by the opponents to the accession of Turkey to the EU, but not the most convincing.
Geographically, Turkey lies clearly on the dividing line between Europe and Asia, its territory
forming part of both continents. Whereas Europe’s borders to the north, west and south are
undisputed, those to the east and south-east remain open to interpretation.
Valery Giscard d’Estaing, one of the most prominent opponents of a Turkish membership,
pointed out in an article in the Financial Times that “five-sixths of Turkey’s territory, and her
capital, are located outside Europe”19. This is by far the weakest of the arguments against Turkish
membership because it does not take into account the fact that the entirety of Cyprus lying east of
the capital Ankara, French Guyana in South America, Tahiti in the Pacific ocean, Reunion in the
Indian ocean and many other portions of territories are part of the European Union20. Furthermore,
the Turkish territory on the European side is substantially larger than EU-members such as Malta,
Cyprus, Luxemburg and Slovenia. The treaty of Rome states that any European country can
become a member of the community, not that the entirety of the territory must be situated on the
European continent.

19
Akçapar, B., Turkey's new European era : foreign policy on the road to EU membership, Rowman &
Littlefield Publishers, 2007, p. 37.
20
Timmerman, C., Karlsson, I., European and Turkish voices in favour and against Turkish accession to the
European Union, New York : P.I.E. Peter Lang, 2008, p. 105.

10
 The geographical argument has been thus suggested rather to give the impression that
there are concrete grounds against Turkish membership. Europe cannot be defined by any
absolute geographical criteria.

5.3. History
The second argument is about Turkey’s history. Some observers argue that Turkey does
not belong to Europe from a historical point of view. They claim that it does not share Europe’s
Judeo-Christian heritage and rationalist tradition considered as the roots on which European
identity is founded.
Nevertheless, others invoke the fact that the Byzantine Empire as well as the Ottoman
Empire have significantly contributed to shape Europe and that as a result Turks also became the
heirs to a rich Judeo-Christian culture in Anatolia after conquering Constantinople. According to
Gerrit De Vylder, the Turkish Ottoman Empire was an integral part of European civilisation and
culture. He argues that this region always acted as the “bridge of the world”21. After all, the
Ottoman Empire was known as the “sick man of Europe”. But most Europeans have not been
taught about the Ottoman role in European history. They seem to know nothing more than the fact
that Turks once tried to invade Europe22.
Names such as Saint Nicholas, Croesus and places like Troy and Ephesus remind that
the region which today is the heart of Turkey was one of the cradles of European civilisation.
In 1856, Turkey was recognized as a European power invited to join the “European Concert”
deciding Europe’s destiny alongside Austria, France, Great Britain, Prussia, Sardinia and Russia.
In the meantime, successive Sultans increased their efforts to ‘westernise’ their territory.
Later on, the reforms undertaken by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk following the break-up of the
Ottoman Empire and his successful fight for national independence in the 1920s transformed
Turkey into a modern and civilized state. For Ataturk and reformist Turks, civilization meant
westernization. So Turkey chose Europe, its political institutions and the idea of a secular state.
Many proponents of enlargement have also argued that there are close links between Anatolia
and European history from Alexander the Great up to the Ottoman Empire23. On this basis, it can
be safely stated that the historical dimension is very significant with regard to the very definition of
European identity. The long history of contact the Ottoman Empire with Europe and its
modernization based on the European model are evidence that Turkey has always been in line
with the West.

5.4. Religion

21
Timmerman, C., De Vylder, G., European and Turkish voices in favour and against Turkish accession to
the European Union, New York : P.I.E. Peter Lang, 2008, p. 56.
22
op.cit.
23
Littoz-Monnet, A., Turkey and the European Union, the implications of a specific enlargement, 2004,
http://www.egmontinstitute.be/papers/050404Turquie-ALM-BVP.pdf (assessed on 12 February 2010).

11
 Besides the many practical objections to Turkish membership, objections of a cultural-
religious nature are increasingly being raised. The element that most explains why opponents
consider Turkey “different”, seems to be religion. Ever since the foundation of modern day Turkey
in 1923, this country with a predominantly Muslim population has been a secular democracy
closely aligned with the West. Although Turkey has a secular constitution, with no official state
religion, 99% of the Turkish population is Muslim.
The underlying fear is that the membership of a country with such a large Muslim
population would contribute to the reinforcement of Islam in Europe because of its weight within
the EU institutions.
The EU is identified by some as a “Christian club”. In fact, the opponents of Turkey’s EU
membership argue that a “Muslim country is incompatible with the common Christian roots" of
Europe24. Thus, Turkish membership is seen as having an important political cultural dimension,
which did not emerge with previous enlargements.
However, according to Dirk Rochtus25, the fact that 99% of the Turkish population is born
into the Islamic culture does not necessarily mean that being Turkish is the same as being a
Muslim. Although the EU originates from a Christian source of inspiration, it does not present itself
as a “Christian club”. Many proponents of secularism will insist that the EU should take Turkey as
a future member to show it is multicultural and not a “Christian club”.
Furthermore, ignorance of Islam in Europe feeds prejudice that has only been
exacerbated by the actions of terrorists who have justified their crimes in religious terms.
Specifically, after the adoption of a multi-party system in 1946 and the representation of political
Islam in that system, the debate on the role of religion in the Turkish state became more intense.
The success of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the parliamentary elections on 22
July 2007 allowed it to form a single-party government under Prime Minister Erdogan for his
second legislature. However, the candidacy of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül and the prospect of
having a moderate Islamist party ruling both the government and the presidency has
alarmed secularist forces in Turkey, the military and the main opposition leader, the Republican
People’s Party (CHP) alike. In fact, the AKP is accused of undermining the country’s secularist
foundations. While claiming secular credit for pursuing Turkey's EU membership and arguing that
it is the Muslim equivalent of the Christian-Democratic parties of Western Europe, the AKP seems
to be engaged is an increasing cultural Islamization26.
There is no denying that modernizing a largely Muslim country based on the shared
values of Europe would be a very valuable achievement for Europe in the war against terrorism.

24
Open Europe Press Summary Archive, New survey shows most Europeans would oppose Turkish
accession, http://www.openeurope.org.uk/media-centre/summary.aspx?id=1017 (assessed on 16 February
2010).
25
Timmerman, C., Rochtus, D., European and Turkish voices in favour and against Turkish accession to the
European Union, New York : P.I.E. Peter Lang, 2008, p. 29.
26
Tibi, B., Islamists Approach Europe, Turkey's Islamist Danger, The Middle East Quarterly, Winter
2009,
http://www.meforum.org/2047/islamists-approach-europe (assessed on 27 February 2010)

12
Additionally, as a candidate member state of the EU currently and a full member state in the
future, Turkey will play an essential role in modernizing and transforming Muslim countries toward
democracy. On this basis, Turkey’s membership would serve as a bridge between Europe and
the Islamic world to avoid a “clash of civilizations” and prove that Islam and modernity are
compatible.

5.5. Demography and Migration

One commonly raised point is that, when it joins the EU, Turkey will become the EU's
most populated Member State. Turkey's current population is 72 million27, and demographers
project it to increase to 80-85 million in the next 20 years. This compares with the largest current
EU Member State, Germany, which has 83 million people today, but whose population is
projected to decrease to around 80 million by 2020.
However, according to Ingmar Karlsson, in a system of double majorities, a Turkish
membership will not have a dramatic influence on how the union functions. A Turkish membership
will imply changes in the European Council and the European Parliament but not in the
Commission where Turkey will have one post or become part of the same system of rotation as
the other members28.
But of course, Turkey will be an important actor and increase the possibilities for the other
member states to make alliances to block or carry through decisions. Turkey’s political weight
would be comparable to that of Germany, based on voting weight by population share. Opponents
to Turkish accession therefore argue that Turkey will be a too powerful member for the EU.
Another challenge for the future is the fear of western Europeans about waves of Turkish
immigrants if Turkey is admitted as an EU member. One argument that could be raised is that a
Turkey integrated into the EU is less likely to flood Europe with migrant labour than if it is kept
outside the union29. This argument is based on the fact that the EU now has a long record of
stabilizing and helping to consolidate democracies and promote economic prosperity. In fact, an
increasingly democratic and prosperous Turkey is more likely to become a country that attracts
immigrants, particularly from Turkish communities in Europe. Greece, Spain, and Portugal, all of
which saw many of their nationals return following their EU accession, are a case in point in this
respect.

5.6. Geostrategic importance

One aspect of Turkey’s new geostrategic importance stems from its unique geopolitical
position of Turkey at the crossroads of the Balkans, the wider Middle East, South Caucasus,

27
Euractiv dossier on Turkey: http://www.euractiv.com/en/enlargement/eu-turkey-relations/article-129678
(assessed on 31 January 2010).
28
Timmerman, C., Karlsson, I., European and Turkish voices in favour and against Turkish accession to the
European Union, New York : P.I.E. Peter Lang, 2008, p. 99.
29
Report of the Independent Commission on Turkey, Turkey in Europe: More than a promise?, September
2004, http://www.independentcommissiononturkey.org/pdfs/2004_english.pdf (assessed on 3 March 2010).

13
Central Asia and beyond, its importance for the security of Europe’s energy supplies and its
political, economic and military weight would be great assets30.
Moreover, as a large Muslim country firmly embedded in the European Union, Turkey could play a
significant role in Europe’s relations with the Islamic world.
One of the arguments raised against this strategic position is that Turkish membership
would draw Europe into the conflicts of the Middle East. But developments in this turbulent region
already have profound repercussions on Europe’s stability and security, whether or not the EU
has direct borders with countries like Iraq, Iran and Syria. Turkey, with its pivotal position at the
heart of the
Eurasian region and as a western pillar of the wider Middle East, can be an important, stable and
prosperous ally in this area.

5.7. Human rights, minority rights and the principle of liberty

Although the Turkish Constitution stipulates that the Turkish state is based on a
democratic system and human rights, the human rights situation has improved only in recent
years. The EU member states' concerns over Turkey's human rights record still constitute a
major obstacle in its possible accession to the EU. The Helsinki Summit in December 1999 was A
major turning point for Turkey's EU prospects. In fact, the country was granted official candidate
status for membership. However, the country had to meet the Copenhagen Criteria to begin
accession negotiations. Then, Turkey took major steps in order to meet the Copenhagen political
criteria between 1999 and 2004, especially concerning human rights and respect for and the
protection of minorities. A key step in this process was the signing of the protocol on the de facto
abolition of the death penalty. And as the Commission report of 2004 emphasized Turkey’s
considerable progress concerning the Copenhagen political criteria, The European Council
decided in December 2004 to open accession negotiations with Turkey in October the following
year. ,. In the past three years Turkey has indeed achieved a remarkable level of legislative and
practical progress. the Erdogan government introduced important reform packages extending civil
and human rights. Furthermore, they included measures to eliminate regulations and practices
that had contributed to impunity for torture and ill-treatment. Laws on the forming of associations
and the right to assemble have been liberalised, and religious and ethnic minorities have acquired
greater legal rights (in particular the ban of Kurdish and other languages has been lifted).
But a number of issues still remain to be solved:

The Cyprus issue

The division of Cyprus into two separate Greek and Turkish communities represents one of the
most difficult issues of the European Union's sixth enlargement round, with the future of Turkey's
EU accession talks depending on the successful resolution of the problem.
30
Euractiv dossier on Turkey: http://www.euractiv.com/en/enlargement/eu-turkey-relations/article-129678
(assessed on 31 January 2010).

14
The Council's December 2004 decision to open accession talks with Turkey required a
compromise on the Cyprus issue. In July 2005, Turkey was obliged to sign a protocol adapting
the 1963 Ankara Agreement (referring to the opening of its ports and airports to trade) to the ten
new member states of the EU, including the Greek Cypriot government, which is not recognised
by Turkey. But at the same time Ankara issued a declaration saying that its signature did not
mean it had recognised the Republic of Cyprus. Turkey also refused to open its ports and airports
to Cyprus. As a result, the Council partially suspended Turkey's EU talks in 2006.

The Armenian issue

The issue of the Armenia is deeply sensitive in Turkey as the softening of Turkey's relationship
with Armenia is seen as a precondition for its membership. But recognition of the Armenian
genocide does not appear to be a precondition for membership any longer. In 2009, Turkey and
Armenia signed a peace agreement aimed at opening borders between the neighbouring
countries. This rapprochement will help the two countries overcome a history of animosity due to
the mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks during the First World War. The Commission
report also views positively the opening of a wide-ranging debate on cultural, political and
economic aspects of the Kurdish issue, but it stresses the need for concrete measures here,
underlining how broad interpretation of anti-terror legislation "has resulted in undue restrictions on
the exercise of fundamental rights".

The Kurdish issue

According to CIA Factbook, Kurds formed approximately 18% of the population in Turkey
(approximately 14 million) in 2008. The Kurdish minority has long complained that the Turkish
government was trying to destroy its identity and that they suffer from economic disadvantage and
human rights violations.
The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the best known and most radical of the Kurdish movements,
launched a guerrilla campaign in 1984 to gain an ethnic homeland in the Kurdish region in the
southeast. The conflict with the PKK resulted in thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands
of refugees. Furthermore, the PKK is considered as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US and
the European Union.
The capture of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in 1999 ceased the Kurdish guerrilla attacks briefly,
but they coon started again.
The condition of the Kurdish minority is seen as a major problem in EU accession talks. Partly in
order to increase its chances of EU membership, the Turkish government began to ease
restrictions on the use of the Kurdish language in 2003. A new “Kurdish initiative” is launched in
2009 with a view to extending cultural and linguistic rights to the Kurdish minority and to reducing
the military presence in the mainly Kurdish southeast of the country.

5.8. Economy

15
Turkey’s economy has traditionally been affected by macroeconomic instability and structural
deficiencies, many of which persist today. But the recent crises have shown the flexibility of the
Turkish economy, leading to a fast recovery and to far-reaching reforms of the institutional and
regulatory frameworks.
In view of the country’s size, geographic location and young and dynamic workforce Turkey’s
economic potential is undeniable. It is equally evident that EU membership would be highly
beneficial for the Turkish economy, providing a firm link to a stable system.

6. Public Opinion
The European sceptical attitude towards Turkey's EU accession is inspiring a popular
reaction among many Turks who are growing increasingly suspicious about the EU.
Actually, while in some countries the general attitude about Turkish membership seems
favourable, clear opposition is expressed among others. The autumn 2007 Eurobarometer survey
conducted by TNS Opinion indicates that scepticism seems to be strongest in countries with a
large Turkish minority, especially in Germany, France, Austria, the Netherlands and Belgium. This
shows that Turkey is seen through the experience of Turkish immigrants, who often strive to
integrate into the societies of host countries31.
The survey reveals that the most sensitive of all the arguments raised against Turkish
accession to the EU appears to be “cultural and religious differences”, with several conservative
European leaders, most notably France's President Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Chancellor
Angela Merkel, making the case for the EU as a 'Christian club'. Other elements include the size
of the country’s population, the fear of a flood of new immigrants and a certain acceptance of
financial burdens in order to bring Turkey’s economy up to European standards.
On the other hand, Turks have become increasingly critical of Turkey's future accession
because they gradually loosed trust in the EU.
In fact, the same Eurobarometer survey indicated that only 49% of the Turks still consider
EU membership a "good thing". But respondents were still twice as likely to consider it a good
rather than a bad thing (25%)32.

7. State of Accession Talks33

The EU opened membership negotiations with Turkey on 3rd October 2005. This was
done by adopting a negotiating framework for this candidate country.
The first stage of negotiations started immediately with the screening process. Screening
meetings were completed in October 2006. Following this, the Commission prepared screening
reports for each chapter.

31
Euractiv dossier on Turkey: http://www.euractiv.com/en/enlargement/eu-turkey-relations/article-129678
(assessed on 31 January 2010).
32
Op.cit.
33
Source: Delegation of the European Union to Turkey,
http://www.avrupa.info.tr/AB_ve_Turkiye/Muzakereler.html (assessed on 15 March 2010).

16
The first chapter to be negotiated, Chapter 25 - Science and Research, was opened and
provisionally closed on 12th June 2006.
In November 2006, the European Union expressed concern over restrictions to the free
movement of goods, including restrictions on means of transport to which Turkey had committed
by signing the Additional Protocol to the Ankara Agreement.
With no solution found, the European Council decided on 14-15 December 2006 to suspend
negotiations on eight chapters relevant to Turkey's restrictions with regard to the Republic of
Cyprus:
• Chapter 1 Free movement of goods
• Chapter 3 Right of establishment and freedom to provide services
• Chapter 9 Financial services
• Chapter 11 Agriculture and rural development
• Chapter 13 Fisheries
• Chapter 14 Transport policy
• Chapter 29 Customs union
• Chapter 30 External relations
It was also decided that no chapter would be provisionally closed until Turkey fulfils its
commitments under the additional protocol to the EU-Turkey association agreement.
However, this did not mean that the process of negotiations was blocked. As of January 2007, the
negotiations were back on the track on the chapters that were not suspended. To date, 10
chapters have been under negotiations, as the table below shows it.

Turkey
Negotiations Negotiations
State of Play: 19 December 2008
Opened Closed
1 – Free Movement of Goods
2 – Freedom of Movement of Workers
3 – Right of Est. & Freedom to Provide
Services
4 – Free Movement of Capital 19 December
2008
5 – Public Procurement
6 – Company Law 17 June 2008
7 – Intellectual Property Rights 17 June 2008
8 – Competition Policy
9 – Financial Services
19 December
10 – Information Society And Media
2008
11 – Agriculture And Rural Development
12 – Food Safety, Vet. & Phytosanoitary
Policy
13 – Fisheries

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14 – Transport Policy
15 – Energy
16 – Taxation 30 June 2009
17 – Economic And Monetary Policy
18 – Statistics 26 June 2007
19 – Social Policy And Employment
20 – Enterprise And Industrial Policy 29 March 2007
21 – Trans-European Networks 19 December
2007
22 – Regional Pol. & Coord. of Structural
Instr.
23 – Judiciary And Fundamental Rights
24 – Justice, Freedom And Security
25 – Science And Research 12 June 2006 12 June 2006
26 – Education And Culture
21 December
27 – Environment
2009
19 December
28 – Consumer And Health Protection
2007
29 – Customs Union
30 – External Relations
31 – Foreign, Security And Defence Policy
32 – Financial Control 26 June 2007
33 – Financial And Budgetary Provisions
34 – Institutions
35 – Other Issues

Source: http://www.avrupa.info.tr/AB_ve_Turkiye/Muzakereler.html

8. Conclusion
This paper, far from pretending to be exhaustive, has offered a general overview of the
main challenges raised by the Turkish membership to the European Union. At the sight of the
long key milestones list of the EU-Turkey relations, it is easy to understand that the relationship
between the two parties has always been a tedious, frustrating enterprise. The EU has been
foremost a peace project. For Turkey, as it has been for existing members, joining the EU is a
leap into a peaceful and prosperous space. As a long-standing candidate for membership, Turkey
is avid for modernity and respect as part of the advanced nations. Applying for membership to the

18
EU, this country knew that it would go through a lengthy process of negotiations and require
thorough reforming of almost every aspect of Turkish governance to comply with the accession
criteria. Among the many reforms, some have been more controversial within Turkey than others.
But Turkey did not know that it would face incessant EU requirements and be given a different
treatment from the other candidate countries. While Turkey has focused on membership in the
EU, successive EU decisions barred ongoing progress and made of Turkey the most long-lasting
candidate ever.
No one can deny that Turkey’s accession would offer considerable benefits both to the
European Union and to Turkey. Nevertheless, it is hard for the EU to give a definite yes as a
definite no to Turkey due to a number of unsolved factors.
Finally, there is no doubt that Turkey’s place in Europe has been confirmed over time. In
fact, the Turks have become part of every imaginable type of European framework. In sports,
Turks compete in European cup competitions. In music, Sertap Erener, a Turkish singer, won the
European song contest (Eurovision) in 2003, after which Turkey hosted the event broadcast live
all over Europe. And finally, Istanbul has been designated as the 2010 European Capital of
Culture. All these happenings show that Turkey and Europe have become inseparable over the
centuries.
To conclude, whether or not Turkey eventually accedes to the EU, the Europe of
tomorrow must be a place where people with different cultures and religions but the same
principles of civilization live together. The Turkish people envision and want to be part of such a
Europe.

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