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Population and
Development
Theories on Interrelations
Module 3a
Learning Objectives
Evaluate the existing evidence for
economic, social and environmental
consequences of population growth
Identify and analyze other exogenous
factors perpetuating /mitigating the effects
of population growth.
Development
Thesis:
Supply of some natural resources (nonrenewable) and capital is fixed
Supply would grow more slowly than the
population
Population
Development
5
Malthusian theory
continued
Coale-Hoover Theory
Conclusion of the theory: High
population growth causes poor socioeconomic development
Policy Implications: Government should
intervene to control population
continued
8
Coale-Hoover Theory:
Limitations
Assumed economic growth as a function
of only capital growth
Does not take into account the changes
in technology and labor quality (through
better heath and schooling of new
generation)
Empirical evidence: Relationship not
consistently negative (Blanchet)
9
10
Revisionist Theory- 1
Development
Population
Revisionist Theory- 2
POPOULATION DEVELOPMENT
International Population Conference,
1984, Mexico: USA position
Theory: Population is a neutral
phenomenon in the process of
economic development
Policy Implications: Other issues must
take priority, e.g. economic reforms,
free markets, democracy etc.
13
Current Thinking(NAS,1986)
The scientific evidence : still inconclusive,
links more clear at individual/household
level rather than at national/regional level
Implication of rapid population growth vary
considerably depending on economic,
cultural, institutional and demographic
differences among LDC.
continued
14
ICPD,1994, Cairo
Summary Slide
This concludes this session. The key
concepts introduced in this session
include:
Theories on inter-relationships between
population growth and development
Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian
theories
The consensus emerged from
previous three International
Conferences on Population
17
Population and
Development
Interrelations
Module 3b
18
20
Continued
21
24
26
Any efforts to
reduce
fertility will
have delayed
effect on
labor force
size
28
Year
Region
1995
World
2,735
MDC
598
Developing countries
2,127
Least developed countries 258
30
35
20
50
20
10
19
90
19
70
20
30
SSA
MDC
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
19
50
36
7000
5-9
10-14
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
37
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Uganda
South Africa
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
38
39
41
42
Policies Aggravating
Environmental Consequences of
Population
Resource subsidies
Use of inefficient technologies for
extraction of natural resources
Policies affecting population
redistribution
Consumption patterns
43
44
45
47
49
50
51
54
Summary Slide
This concludes this part. The key concepts
introduced in this module are:
Relationship between population growth
and agriculture
Relationship between population
growth, employment and education
Relationship between population growth
and environment
55