1 Report 1 - Edit Rabu.25

mPREFACE
Thanks to Allah SWT, for His blessing, we can solve this internship report on time. Also, thanks to Mr. Husnul
Abady, M.T as our supervisor in PPBJ department for the guidance, because of that we can get new experience
and knowledge.
The outlines of this report such as spare parts management, demand and classification and forecast for next
period. Doing this project report helped us to enhance our knowledge about implementation of some forecasting
The Spareparts Demand Forecasting Using

devotion towards the work.
SES, Crostons, and SBA Method
techniques in the real problem. Through this report we come to know about importance of team work and role of
We hope who goes through it will find it interesting and worth reading. All constructive feedback is cordially
invited
Surabaya, May 2016

Researcher,
Anis S.Nurr & Firdausi Gani.S
Table of Contents
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
Surabaya
1. Executive Summary.......................................
2. Motivation and Background........................... 2
3. Scope Of Work...............................................
4. An Overview of PT Petrokimia Gresik............. 4
5. Organizational Structure of PT Petrokimia Gresik
6. Procurement Process.....................................
Contact:
7. Spare Parts Management Framework............
15
@nurranisiti@gmail.com
8. Spare Parts Demand and Classification......... 27
@firdausiganisalihati@gmail.com
9. The Forecasting of Spare Parts Demand........ 30
10.
Methodology.............................
11.
Data and Process......................
12.
Analysis.....................................
13.
Conclusions...............................
1
3
10
14
39
19
21
22
Spare part Forecasting
14.
15.
References................................
Appendixes...............................
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report provides an analysis of forecast of some spare parts in re-order level goods. The method use in this
research are single exponential smoothing, Crostons method and SBA method. In data and process section, we
only provide one sample calculation, and the others calculation attached in appendix. The spare parts use in this
research are grind stone, conveyor fastener, v-belt, bearing, pressure indicator and valve.
Tambahin analisa
Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan didapatkan hasil error terkecil yaitu dengan menggunakan metode SES
dengan presentase rata-rata error sebesar 23,24%, sedangkan untuk metode SBA yaitu sebesar 26,25%
dan metode Crostons sebesar 36,72%.
MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND

Spare parts Forecast
In manufacturing company, the availability of spare parts is one of the important and considerate thing in order
to maintain the continuity of the production process. Spare parts have particular features which make extremely
delicate and sophisticate their management. Because future demand plays a very important role in production
planning and inventory management of spare parts, fairly accurate forecasts are needed. The manufacturing
sector has been trying to manage the uncertainty of demand of spare parts for many years, which has brought
about the development of many forecasting methods and techniques.
The number of spare parts in the warehouse must be maintain by warehouse management or department of
procurement. So, to maintain the availability of spare parts in the warehouse, the demand forecasting calculations
of spare parts must be conducted. However, because the demand is uncertain, the number of spare parts for the
next period is difficult to calculate. It is often assumed that the number does not match the reality.
There are several types of demand characteristics, i.e. slow-moving, intermittent, and lumpy. Furthermore, by
knowing the pattern of demand, it can be done in accordance with the prediction of the demand pattern. So far,
many studies who had already calculating spare parts demand forecasting by using several different methods.
Several methods can be used for forecasting are single exponential smoothing method, Monte Carlo simulation,
etc. Classical statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing and regression analysis, have been used by
decision makers for several decades in forecasting spare parts demand (Kaki, 2007).
In this report, Single Exponential Smoothing, Crostons Method and SBA Method are used to analyze the
demand forecasting of spare parts.
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SCOPE OF WORK
The Boundaries & Purpose
In this experiment, we can discuss about how the paramaters that can affect the recipe of the cupcake and how
to reduce the variation in the variable that affect on it.
The problems scope or boundary in this experiment are as follows :
1. Only using spare parts in re-order level goods,
2. History demand data from 2011 until 2014
The main purpose of this experiment is:
1. To predict demand spare parts in next year
Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya - 2016
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An Overview of PT Petrokimia Gresik

Company Profile
The website of PT Petrokimia Gresik (Petrokimia-Gresik,
2012) includes PT
Petrokimia Gresik si located at Gresik Regency, East Java
Province,
and
occupying land of 450 hectares. At the beginning the company
produced
ammonia, urea fertilizer and ZA, and now it has various businesses
and integrated Plan
facilities. PT Petrokima Gresik has developer high technology
plant started with
producing phosphoric Acid based fertilizer. Since 2005, PT Petrokimia Gresik has developer organic fertilizer
plant named petroganik indicating the spirit of continuous innovation and care to the environment of all
elements of the company. PT Petrokimia Gresik produces various kind of fertilizers, so PT Petrokimia Gresik
becomes the most complete fertilizer plant in Indonesia.
The Vision of PT Petrokimia Gresik si to be a fertilizer and chemical produser having high
competitiveness whose products are most wanted by consumers. Also, the mission of PT Petrokima Gresik
are:
1. To support national fertilizers supply in order to achieve food self sufficiency program,
2. To increase companys retur to facilitate the companys day to day operation as well as its
development program, and
3. To develop the business potential to support the national chemical industries and to be active in
community development.
The purpose and objective of PT Petrokimia Gresik is to executing and supporting the government policy
in the field of economy and national development in general, and in the field of industry, trade, service, and
transportaion especially (Annual Report, 2011).

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Name and The Form of Company

PT Petrokimia Gresik is one of the State Owned Enterprises or Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN), which
are within the scope of the Ministry of Industry which is under The Directorate of Metal. PT Petrokimia Gresik
engaged in the production of fertilizers, non-chemical fertilizers, and services. Initially, this fertilizer factory
called Surabaya Petrochemical Project which was later changed to PT Petrokimia Gresik.
The government has designed the existence of PT Petrokimia Gresik since 1956 through the Bureau of State
Designer or Biro Perancang Negara (BPN). However, a new factory was founded in 1960 based on MPRS decree
No. II / 1960 and Presidential Decree No. 260/1960. Physical construction of the first phase began in 1964 based
on Presidential Instruction No.I / 1963. The project was developed and hired by the contractor COSINDIT SPA of
Italy. However, in 1968 the project was stopped for a while due to uncertainty of political and economic
conditions in Indonesia. Construction of the project started back in February 1968 and can be completed and
began production in March 1972.
On July 10, 1972 Surabaya Petrochemical Project was inaugurated by President Soeharto in the form of
business entity Public Enterprise or Badan Usaha Perusahaan Umum (Perum). On July 10, 1975, they were
transferred to a Limited Liability Company (Persero) under the name of PT Petrokimia Gresik. Since 1997 until
now PT Petrokimia Gresik form a holding company with PT PUSRI Palembang based on PP No.28 / 1997 with a
99.99% stake held by PT PUSRI Palembang while 0.01% is owned by PT Petrokimia Gresik.
Company Location
PT Petrokima Gresik located at A. Yani Street and has a land area of 450 ha, but that has been handled by 300
ha. The area covers an area of land occupied 10 villages in three districts, namely:
o District of Gresik, includes sub district Ngipik, Karangturi, Sukorame, and Tlogopojok.
o District of Kebomas, includes sub district Kebomas, Tlogopatut, and Randu Agung.
o District of Manyar, includes sub district Romo Meduran, Coastal Corner, as well as the village Tepen.
Chosen areas above as the location of the PT Petrokimia Gresik is the result of a feasibility study in 1962 by
the Preparatory Committee Industry Project or Badan Persiapan Proyek Industri (BP3I), coordinated by the
Ministry of Basic Industry and Mines with the following considerations:
Enough available less productive land.

Enough water sources of the stream Brantas River and Bengawan Solo River.
Near to the largest fertilizer consumer area, namely plantations and sugarcane farmers.
Close to the port to facilitate transportation of plant equipment during construction, raw material procurement,
production and distribution of results through the navy.
Close to the center of power plants.
Vision and Mision

Vision of PT Petrokimia Gresik :
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"PT Petrokimia Gresik determined to become producers of fertilizers and other chemical products that are highly
competitive and most popular consumer products."
In Bahasa:
PT Petrokimia Gresik bertekad untuk menjadi produsen pupuk dan produk kimia lainnya yang berdaya saing
tinggi dan produknya paling banyak diminati konsumen.
Mision of PT Petrokimia Gresik :

Support the provision of national fertilizer to achieve food self-sufficiency program.
Increase efforts to support the results of operations and business development activities.
Develop business potential for the fulfillment of the national chemical industry and play an active role in
community development

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Companys Logo and The Meaning

PT Petrokimia Gresik own logo, which is a golden yellow buffalo and five-pointed green leaves with white
letters PG in the middle. Each of these symbols means as follows:
Picture 1. PT Petrokimia Gresiks Logo

Basic selection buffalo logo:
A tribute to area Kebomas

Have an attitude of hard-working, loyal, and honest.
Widely known Indonesian society and is a friend of the farmer.
Meaning of The Logo
Golden yellow color on the buffalo symbolizes grandeur.

Five-pointed green leaves:
The green leaves are symbolizes fertility and prosperity.
Leads five symbolizes the five principles of Pancasila.
Letter PG: Petrokimia Gresik
The white color of letter PG is symbolizing purity.
The black color in writing the name of the company symbolizes the depth, stability, and firm faith. Strong
values that always supports the entire work process
The overall meaning of logo:

"With a clean conscience based on the five principles of Pancasila, PT Petrokimia Gresik trying to achieve a just
and prosperous society for the nation to greatness."

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In Bahasa:
Dengan hati yang bersih berdasarkan lima sila Pancasila, PT Petrokimia Gresik berusaha mencapai
masyarakat yang adil dan makmur untuk menuju keagungan bangsa.
Supporting Infrastructure Unit
Special Pier
PT Petrokimia Gresik has facilities pier for own purpose or Dermaga Untuk Kepentingan Sendiri (DUKS)
sized 819 x 36 m with a capacity:
1.
2.
o
o
Unloading 3 million tons / year.

Standard 8 ships at once:
3 ship weighted 40,000-60,000 DWT (ocean side).
5 ship weighted 10,000 DWT (landside).
This dock is also equipped with loading and unloading facilities, which form two bulk loading crane, crane
unloading a versatile, two conveyor unloading raw materials, belt conveyor for the transportation of solid
materials, and pipeline facilities for transporting liquid materials.
Water Purification Unit
1. In Gunung Sari (Surabaya), from Brantas River sent to Gresik using a pipe along the 22 km, 14 inch
diameter and a capacity of 700 m3 / h.
2. In Babat, from Bengawan Solo River to Gresik via pipeline 55 km, 28 inch diameter, and the installed
capacity from 1700 to 2500 m3 / h.
Belt conveyor
As the supporting transportation infrastructure of raw materials and products, there are belt conveyor which
connected the pier with factories in production units I, II, and III with a total length of about 22 km.
Industrial Plant Equipment Unit
To support the maintenance of existing plant and can be used for fabrication and machining plant equipment
order another company that is managed by the Ministry of Equipment and Machinery.
Power Plant
The Company has three power plant units, namely:
1. From the gas turbine generator with a capacity of 33 MW to meet the needs of the process in the
production units.
2. From the steam turbine generator with a capacity of 20 MW is also consumed to meet the needs of the
process.
3. From PLN with a capacity of 15 MW is used for non-process such as hospitals, residential, office, GOR,
mosques, and others.
Waste Processing Unit

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PT Petrokimia Gresik perform waste management by using a system of reuse, recycle and recovery (3R) with
the support of: liquid waste with a capacity of 240 m3 / h, control facilities gas emissions in each production unit,
including bag filters, cyclonic separator, dust collector, electric precipitator (EP), dust scrubbers, etc.
Distribution Center
PT Petrokimia Gresik has a Warehouse Distribution Center in Medan, Lampung, Padang, Cigading,
Banyuwangi, Makasar and Gresik.
Laboratories
Production Laboratory, Calibration Laboratory, Laboratory of Chemical Test, Mechanical Test Laboratory,
Electrical Testing Laboratory, Valve test, Air Permeability Test, etc.

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Organizational Structure of PT Petrokimia Gresik

The picture below is a organization structural of PT Petrokimia Gresik:
Picture 2. Organization Structural in PT Petrokimia Gresik

Planning and Control Goods and Services Department or Departemen Perencanaan dan Pengawasan
Barang / Jasa (PPBJ)
The picure below is a organization structural of departemen perencanaan dan pengawasan barang / jasa:
Picture 3.
Organization Structural of Planning and Control Goods and Services (PPBJ) Departement
Department of planning and monitoring of goods and services (PPBJ) in charge planning what items are
needed by the user to support the production process as well as monitoring the performance of suppliers and
monitoring goods received from suppliers regarding the conformity of the goods to the specifications given when
making the order.
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Based on the level of consumption, the items are classified into five categories, namely Re Order Level
(ROL), Insurance (Z), intransit (I), Non Stock Item (H) and Surplus (E). For the category H and I are determined
by the users and for the category ROL and Z, the planning is done by the department based on the PPBJ with the
historical data and the company's plans in advance.
This department has six sections:
Planning material goods
This section is responsible to planning the amount of material, controlling the amount of inventory in the
warehouse, planned deadline for procurement, and to give the owner estimate. The availability of material is
divided into two categories: material stock and non-stock material. Material stocks implement the plan by using
quantum maximum and minimum based on historical data, the input of user-related and operational data on the
most important items. While the non-stock material without prior planning because the material is new, so there is
no historical data is earlier.
At the planning material, there are six sections, namely:
Staff planning plant I
Staff planning plant II
Staff planning plant III
Staff planning non-plant and general items
Staff planning of BB / BP / BD
Staff planning of ROL and insurance items
Services planning
This section is in charge of planning for the procurement of suppliers in the treatment plant, construction of
the plant, plant equipment repair and cleaning service.
Identification and evaluation techniques
This section is responsible to identify the material from giving up material specification category. And other
tasks is to evaluate the technical goods offered by the supplier or from the procurement process. In addition, this
section is also responsible for giving PartNumber on each material. Part of this material are signals that allow a
user to request the desired needs to deserahkan the PGM department.
At the Identification and evaluation techniques, there are four sections, namely:
1. Staff of mechanical and workshop
2. Staff of Electrical and Instruments
3. Staff of production, non factories and general items
4. Staff of data reporting services
Monitoring and receipt of goods and services
Warehouse of material
Warehouse assigned to accept the goods or materials that come from suppliers, storing goods or materials for
the plant, taking care of material goods well, and serve the people who need the goods to run the production,
especially user. Goods in the warehouse is not a raw material for production. Any goods stored in the warehouse
of materials have been verified before being placed on each of the warehouses that have been classified for each
item.
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This material parts warehouse is divided into four sections, namely:

1. Section ROL and general goods warehouse
2. Section warehouse of spare parts and fuel
3. Section sacks, chemicals and auxiliary materials
Warehouse of raw materials and internal transport
The warehouse of raw materials is one important part of the PPBJ department, because this section serves for
storage, treatment, and control of raw materials that have been delivered by suppliers.
Picture 4. Receiving Workflow

Warehouses managed by department PPBJ are:
Warehouse 1
: Files
Warehouse 2
:
Warehouse 3
: Spare parts
Warehouse 4
: Supporting materials
Warehouse 5
: Spare part
Warehouse 6
: Oli, Grease
Warehouse 7
: Chemical and supporting materials
Warehouse 8
: Spare part, electrical and instrument
Warehouse 9
: Welding gas
Warehouse 10
: Surplus goods
Warehouse 11
: Received goods from suppliers
Warehouse 12
: Pipe, fitting and general
Warehouse 13
: Spare parts and general

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Procurement Process
The procurement process began with the demand for goods or material needs of the user that called the
Material Requisition (MR) or request materials for the maintenance process called the Maintenance Material
Requisition (MMR). Then the user deliver on the plan located on each - each plant, and Candal of each - each
plant will deliver these requirements to the Candal PPBJ. If the required material needs have been available in the
warehouse, it will be immediately given by create a pick list or PB as a requirement for the user to take the goods
in the warehouse. However, if the goods are not available in warehouse, then this demand will continue to be
made a requisition (PR) by the planning section of the material.
In the PR created by Planning Material section, and it should be listed the value of the Owner Estimate (OE)
which can be used as a reference in the offer which will then be submitted to the Department of Procurement.
Then the procurement department will tendering an offer or invite to suppliers who can supply the goods in
accordance with the PR that has been made. After found the appropriate supplier, PPBJ can make purchase order
(PO) to the supplier contained the items specification. Every purchase order has a due date, so supplier must
fulfill the order before the due date.
When the supply arrived, then identifications and evaluation techniques section checking the items, whether
the items come in accordance by specifications or not. If the items or goods are appropriate, then, PPBJ will make
a PB. And the goods or item will send to warehouse, then sending a MMR to user.
SPARE PARTS MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

In manufacturing, a spare part is an item that can be used to repair an existing product. Often the key
element to successful procurement is spare part demand forecasting. Obviously, if the spare part demand is
deterministic, external factors are very restrictive (such as regulations that require a certain amount of spare parts
in stock) (Kaki, 2007).
External factors, such as supplier contracts
Judgemental demand forecast

Procurement procedure
Unit item costs
Statistical demand forecast
Requirements, such as service level

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Picture 5. General procurement procedure

Compared to manufacturing parts, also forecasting the demand of spare parts is a different task and generally a
more difficult one. As Patton (2007) states, It is possible to determine how many service parts are enough., but
it is more problematic that, contrary to parts used in manufacturing, the real demand is most likely to be very
much closer to zero than the theoretical maximum. In general, the spare item demand is intermittent and random.
The demand is not homogeneous between spare parts. Some parts are very commonly replaced whereas for some
there is a respectable probability that they will never be needed. This separates spare parts from parts needed in
manufacturing, where such probabilities do not exist, but the amount of components needed per product is
deterministic. Likewise, the life cycle has a large impact in forecasting spare parts. For manufacturing material,
the demand volume and life cycle are often somewhat known in advance, while the ramp-ups and -downs of a
product manufacturing line are planned beforehand, at least at some level. With spare parts, the life cycle impact
is much more uncertain, because there seldom exists information about the time dependency of spare part
demand: it is hard to estimate how the spare part demand will develop in the EOL phase based on demand in the
normal phase. In Figure 2.5, some important factors making a difference in demand are presented.
Table 1. Factors affecting the demand of manufacturing part vs spare part
Factor
Manufacturing part
Demand type
Life cycle impact
High volumes at steady level Low volume, intermittent

Predictable
Unpredictable and large
One
or
few
product Many products in different
Source of demand
Source of randomness in
demand
manufacturing lines
Traceable
Spare part
life cycles phases

Untraceable due to numerous
sources
Spare part is a supporting component of primary machine. Based on Oxford dictionary, spare parts means
a duplicate part to replace a lost or damaged part of a machine. Each time the machine is damaged it needed spare
parts replacement, so the availability of spare parts is essential. Some of the items below are an example of
machine spare parts, namely:
1
Grinding Stone
Grinder is a tool that serves to soften or to sharpen workpieces made of metal. The function of grinding stone
is as follows:
1
2
Eliminate uneven surfaces.

Surface finishing.

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For cutting.
Sharpening cutting tools.
Types and Functions of the grinding stone is different in its use, the following function of some type:
1
Flat Rock Grinding wheels, to perform grinding cutting tools such as hand tap, countersink, drill bits,
2
3
and so forth.
Cut wheel grinding wheels, to perform grinding cutting tools such as cutter, lathe chisel, and so forth.
Dish grinding wheels, a very shallow cup-style grinding wheel. The thinness allows grinding in slots
or crack. It is used primarily in cutter grinding and jig grinding.

Shaped grinding wheels, for cutting on extremely hard material, such as high strength steel (HSS), a
5
6
high alloy steel which is able to maintain its hardness characteristic at high temperatures.
Cylindrical grinding wheels, to perform grinding diameter in a type of product.
Saucer Grinding Wheels, a special grinding profile that is used to grind milling cutters and twist drills.
It is most common in non-machining areas, as saw filers use saucer wheels in the maintenance of saw
blades.
Diamond Grinding Wheels, used to grind hard materials such as concrete, gemstones etc.
Picture 6. Grinding Stone cutoff wheels for stationary saws 356 x 25,4 x 3 mm

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Picture 7. Grinding wheels for angled grinders 102 x 16 x 3,4 mm

2
Conveyor Fastener
Conveyor is a mechanical system that has the function of moving goods from one place to another.
Conveyor is widely used in industry to transport vast quantities of goods and sustainable. Fasteners
used to combine multiple parts or components into an assembly component.
Picture 8. Metal Steel conveyor fastener

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Picture 9. Stainless Steel Conveyor Fastener

3
V-belt
V-BELT used to transmit power from one shaft to another shaft through a pulley that rotates at the
same speed or different. V-belt pulleys is one element that serves to transmit engine power as well as
chain sprocket and gear.
Picture 10. V-Belts

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Bearing Ball
Bearing is a machine element that serves to limit elative motion between two or more components of
the machine to keep it moving in the desired direction. Bearing in charge of keeping shaft in order to
always rotate about the axis, or also maintaining a linear moving parts in order to stay on track. Bearing
capability in lowering the friction depends on several factors, namely the fineness of metal balls or rollers,
the smoothness of the inner surface and outer surface to resist the rolling of the balls or rollers. Balls and
roller serves to receive loads received from the outside. There are two types of load on the bearing to be
accepted that the burden of radial and thrust loads.
Picture 11. Bearing

Bearing can be classified based on the movement allowable by the design of the bearing itself,
based on the principle of works, and also based on the style or type of load can be tolerated. Here are
the types of bearing viewed from various aspects:
1
The type of bearing by friction in the bearing:

a Anti-friction bearing, is a bearing that would not cause friction. Example: roller and ball bearings
b Friction bearing is a bearing that works can lead to friction. Example: bush and plain bearing.
2 The type of bearing is based on a load held by the bearing:
a Journal Bearing is bearings designed to withstand the load which is perpendicular to the axis of the
b
horizontal shaft
Foot step or pivot bearing is bearing designed on a vertical shaft to hold the load in parallel to the
axis of the shaft.

Thrust bearing is bearings designed to withstand horizontal loads parallel to the axis of the
horizontal shaft.
The type of bearing is usually dependent motion principles, mechanisms, materials and usability.
Here are some types of bearings can be used in industry:
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Ball Bearing
Ball bearings are the most common types of bearings, used in many technical applications, from
machinery to household appliances. Bearing is quite simple but it has an effective rotation. So this
makes bearing the most widely used because it can handle both of rotary load (radial load) or
compressive load from the side (thrust load). However, this is only used for applications that load
is not too heavy. In ball bearing, the load transfer from the outside (outer race) into a series of balls
in, and then get into the inner race. Because the shape of the ball is round, the contact between the
inner race and the outer race is very minimal, so rotation is very soft.
Roller Bearing
The easiest illustration of this roller bearing type is a conveyor belt where load bearing given quite
heavy. As the name implies, roller bearing in the form of a cylindrical roller. So contact between
the inner race and the outer race is not reliant on a single point as the ball bearing, but in line (the
width of the roller). Because the fulcrum wider or more than one point, then the strength of the
foundation of the load is also greater. Roller bearing is also varied including needle bearing, which
uses a cylinder with a diameter that is very small, because of that, is equated with a needle
Ball thrust bearing

Bearings of this type are used for applications with a low round of motion. Cannot be used for
radial load.
Roller Thrust
Appropriate by its designation, roller thrust bearing in the form of roller bearings that can
withstand fairly heavy loads, commonly used in gear sets such as transmission or gear box, where
it took home and the rotating shaft
Tapered Roller
Bearings of this type has two parts opposing directions on the roller bearing. Thus, two roller
bearings can withstand the load of two-way trust them.
Magnetic Bearing
Magnetic Bearings are bearing most modern with working power or high speed. Usually use in the
system of certain systems and devices such as the flywheel. With the help of this magnetic
bearing, the flywheel can float on a magnetic field. Some types of flywheel can rotate more than
50 thousand rpm. Compared with the usual roller bearing or ball bearing to be directly melted in
this speed, because the magnetic bearing has no moving parts.

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Valve
Valve is a device attached to the piping system, which serves to regulate, control and direct the fluid
flow rate by opening, closing or partially closing the fluid flow. Valve has an important role in an industry
such as the oil and gas industry which includes jetting into the distillation column and control ignition in
the furnace.
Valve can be operated manually, either by using handles, levers and pedals, etc., in addition to
manually operated valve can also be operated automatically by using the principle of change of flow,
pressure and temperature. The change will affect the diaphragm, spring or piston so that it will
automatically move the valve to open and close system.
Picture 12. SOLENOID 2 WAY VALVE TYPE HE-8025-B-224 (a)
Picture 13. SOLENOID 2 WAY VALVE TYPE HE-8025-B-224 (b)

Types of Valve
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Here are various types of valve with the characteristics and workings of each:
a
Gate Valve
This type is designed to open and close the flow by way of closed and fully open so that the valve
is not suitable to regulate the flow rate due to less accurate in terms of controlling the amount of
flow.
Plug Valve
Has the same function as gate valve with the closing or opening the flow as a whole. However,
some application of this valve is used to control the flow as the gas flowing.
Ball Valve
These types can be operated on the fluid temperature is -450 F to -500 F, ball valve is a type of
quick opening valve which requires only 1/4 full rotation from the closed position to fully open.
Globe valve
The flow of the valve changes direction so as to produce large enough friction even in the wide
open. This valve type is quite important when used for tight closing, especially in the gas stream.
Needle Valve
Basically, this type is used in the instrument, gage and meter line service. This valve can be used
for throttling with very accurate and can also be used at high pressures and high temperatures.
Diaphragm Valve
This valve has the advantage to have a quiet and fluid flow will flow unimpeded, this type is
excellent for flow control and flow very tight closure even though in the pipeline contained
suspended solids. Diaphragm valve suitable for corrosive fluids, viscous material, fibrous
materials, sludge, solids in suspension, gas and pressurized air.
Butterfly Valve
A valve to a low pressure with a very simple design that is used to control and adjust the flow, to
fully open and fully closed only needed fourth round.

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Check valve
This type have been designed to prevent backflow, check valve consists of several types such as
lift check, check and ball check swing.
Pressure Relief Device

This type is classified as a safety valve, is used to prevent overpressure in the piping system and
prevent damage to the equipment. There are two types of safety valve is a relief valve and pop
valve, both types can be opened quickly. Relief valve is used to relieve excessive pressure while
the pop valve used for high pressure applications. However, both types should not be used when
the fluid is corrosive, involving back-pressure, involving pressure control or bypass valve.
Pressure Reducing Valve

The main function of this type is to keep the pressure in the piping system is always constant with
pressure from a source that has higher pressure.
Traps Valve
The function of the trap is to remove condensate from the steam piping (steam) in the absence of
steam that go wasted. Trap valve consists of three types of float traps, and inverted bucket trap
bucket trap. Trap sized adapted to discharge capacity of the actual or effective valve area is not
based on the size of the intlet and outlet pipe connections.

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Pressured Indicator
A pressure gauge is a measuring instrument that is used as an indicator of a change in pressure in
the process equipment.
Picture 14. Pressure Indicator Type MEX5-DF60-F19
Picture 13. Pressure Indicator Type S X 500 A4D D18
SPAREPARTS DEMAND AND CLASSIFICATION

In the manufacturing industry spare parts inventory in the warehouse are concerned. Management monitors the
inventory of spare parts in order not to empty. This is because if the spare part needed is not available in the
warehouse, it will affect the production process. Demand for spare parts which would not have been a problem

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that often occurs in the procurement management in the manufacturing industry. Based on Ingegneria, Di,
Gestione, & Sistemi (2010) the characteristics of the spare parts demand are as follows:
1.
Table 2.
The characteristics of the spare parts demand
Slow moving or smooth, this items have a behavior which is similar to that of the
2.
traditional articles, at low rotation, of a productive system

Strictly intermittent, they are characterized by extremely sporadic demand (therefore a
lot of period with no demand) with a not accentuated variability in the quantity of the
3.
single demand,
Erratic, the fundamental characteristics is the great variability of the requested quantity,
4.
but the demand is approximately constant as distribution in the time,

Lumpy, is the most difficult to control category, because it is characterized by a lot of
intervals with zero-demand and great variability in the quantity.
1. Special parts:
- Parts which can cause the cessation of the production process if broken
- The use that can be used for longer
- It is difficult to procure rapid or sudden
- Relative more expensive
- Must be placed in a special room
- Large diameter
2. Medium parts:
- Parts that must be present, but not causing substantial losses
- Used in standard time
- Not too difficult in the procurement process
- Medium price
- Must be placed in a special room
- Diameter smaller
3. Common parts:
- Parts that do not result in a big loss if damaged
- Use of which must be replaced
- It is not difficult in the procurement process
- The price is relatively cheap
- Placed in a normal room
- Average diameter
Based on (Ingegneria et al., 2010) Ghobbar et al. (2003, p.2105) suggest some cut values which allow a
more detailed characterization of the intermittent standard of spare parts demand. The intermittent
consumption of a spare part, as shown in Figure x.x (Ingegneria et al., 2010).
Where,
time
0

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= consumption of spare part (pieces)
ti = interval between two consecutive demands

The four categories of the spare parts demand (patterns) as they are defined by the present literature are as
follow:

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ADI = 1.32
Slow moving Intermittent
CV = 0.49
Erratic
Picture 14.
The categoriesLumpy
of the spare parts demand
For a valuation of this double characterization of spare parts demand, two parameters recognized in international
field are utilized:
ADI
Average inter-demand interval: average interval between two demands

of the spare part. It is usually expressed in periods, where the period is
the
referential time interval which the business utilizes for the purchases;
Coefficient of variation: standard deviation of the demand divided by the
CV
average demand.
ADI =
ti
i=1
CV =
Where
i=1
The Forecasting of Spare parts Demand
A company that will procure usually would see previous demand historical data to determine how many items
to be ordered for the next procurement. Demand forecasting do to meet the needs of production, so before the
next production do then the items required to be immediately available.
Forecasting is the process of estimating future demand in terms of quantity, timing, quality and location for
desired products and services. Forecasting is one of activity in medium range operations planning on operations
management. The purpose of forecasting is to reduce or clarify the uncertainty of the future conditions. Most
production forecasting system are built upon extrapolating time series data, so, organization or manufacturing use
an historical data or record of past activity. Since even todays rapidly changing environment fundamental
relationship still hold, this is a reasonable assumption as long as the look backward is not too far back and the
look forward is not too far distance.
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Forecasting have some characteristics, first is usually wrong, because there is an excess or shortage of goods
in the forecast, it is related with accuracy level. So, procurement team department must have enough data to do
forecast. Second is aggregate forecast are more accurate, because we no need forecast in detailed, since more
detailed will be less accuracy. Next is the longer forecast horizon the less accurate the forecast will be. Fourth is
forecast should include a measure of forecast error and a good forecast is more than single number.
Forecasting Method
In brief, a lot of forecasting methods have been elaborated and studied in the field of spare parts demand.
Table 4. Forecasting methods
Methods
Single
exponential
smoothing
Crostons
method
Inputs
- Historical data
- Smoothing constant
- Historical data
- Interval between
present and last
SyntetosBoylon
approximatio
n
Moving
Average
Weighted
moving
average
Additive
winter
non-zero demand
- Historical data
- Interval between
present and last
non-zero demand
- Historical data
- Number of data to
considerate
- Historical data
- Number of data to
Description
It adopts a smoothing
Mathematical Model
Exponential smoothing
constant of the real

demands
Evolution of SES which Exponential smoothing
also looks on intervals of
zero demand
Evolution of Croston in
order to decrease the error

of the expected estimate of
demand per time period
Mean of the past n
Arithmetic mean
demands
Mean of past n demands
Arithmetic mean
with decreasing weights
considerate
- Historical data
- Trend constant
- Periodicity constant
- Width of periodicity
Evolution of SES with the
- Exponential
introduction of additive
smoothing
- Sum of components
terms on the components
Multiplicative - Historical data
(trend, casual component)

Evolution of SES with the
winter
introduction of additive
smoothing
- constant
- Trend constant
- Periodicity constant
terms on the components

(trend, casual component)

- Exponential
smoothing
- Product of
components
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Bootstrap
method
- Width of periodicity
- Historical data
- Number of re-
Modern approach to
Probabilistic
statistical inference, failing
(re-sampling)
sampling
- Width of a sample
within a broader class of

resampling methods
Application of the
- Historical data
- Interval time T
binomial formula to
- Punctual value of the x
forecast
demand to forecast
Based on human
- Historical data
- Number of neurons
intelligence, it learns from
- Number of layers
a training set the
- Leaming algorithm
- Function of error
connection between inputs
Poisson
method
Neural
network
Probabilistic
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model
model
(binomial distribution)
Not
mathematical
model
and output (the forecast)

Forecasting can be subjective (using more intuitive or qualitative approaches) and objective (using
quantitative approaches), but only objective that based on historical data. There are two categories of objective
forecasting methods: causal/econometric and time series. Causal or econometric forecasting methods attempt to
predict outcomes based on changes in factors that are known or believed to impact those outcomes. Time series
methods attempt to estimate future outcomes on the basis of historical data. This time researcher using time series
method to do this research.
Simple time series method
The material or goods that have stable demand can use this method, because the calculation is easier and
relative simple than the others. The categories are:
a
Moving average
Moving average is one of stationary demand pattern, means not follow the trend and seasonality.
Moving Average (MA) is a popular method for averaging the results of recent sales history to
determine a projection for the short term. This method used to smooth the time series data that bumpy.
How to use this method is to take average of n last data.
F t = D i
i=1
Where,
n=number of periodsthemoving average
D i=demand period i

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This forecast formulation is to calculate the demand for period 4, because we use three first demand.
To forecast period 5, each average is moved ahead one period each time.
Weighted moving average

Weighted moving average is used of adjust moving average method to more closely reflect data
fluctuations. The forecast will be smooth if n is larger than
Ft = i D i
Where,
i=the weighted for period i
D i=demand period i
The weight
( ) that is assigned to each of the historical data periods. The total of assigned
weights ( ) must be 1.00.

b
The simplest exponential smoothing method is the single smoothing (SES) method where only one
parameter needs to be estimated. This method requires the number of periods best fit plus two years of
sales data, and is useful for items that have both trend and seasonality in the forecast. You can enter the
alpha and beta factor, or have the system calculate them. Alpha and beta factors are the smoothing
constant that the system uses to calculate the smoothed average for the general level or magnitude of sales
(alpha) and the trend component of the forecast (beta).
Ft = (last salesdemand data )+ (1 )( last forecast )
Fn +1=D n + ( 1 ) F n
Where,
=weighting factor=
2
N +1
Ft =forecast for the next period

D n=actual demand for present period
Fn =previously determined forecast for present period
If alpha values is more than 0.6 will cause a great deal of weight to be placed on the current period.
To provide stability, forecasters usually choose alpha values between 0.1 and 0.3. The value of 0.3 is
usually used for inconstant data, and alpha value closer to 0.1 are favored for more stable data.
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Crostons Method
This method is developed on 1972 by Croston, then is known as a Croston method. Calculation of
Crostons method using the number of demand and inter-arrival time between demands. The main
changes from the previous forecasting methods are forecasting renewed only when there is a demand and
not renewed when forecasting time interval has elapsed as usual exponential smoothing. Crostons method
not only focus on the big demand, but also considers the time between the request into the calculation. So
this model is suitable for forecasting spare parts that have intermittent demand patterns.
Crostons method is separating the renewed demand () and demand interval (). In the review
period t, if there is no demand in that period, the estimate of demand and inter-arrival time at the end of
time t, and , respectively remain unchanged. If there is a demand then Xt> 0, so the estimates are
updated with:
Ft +1=
Zt
pt
{
{
{
Zt=
Z t1 , if X t=0
. X t + (1 ) Zt , if X t >0
q t= q t1 +1,if X t=0
1, if X t > 0
pt =
p t1 ,if X t =0
. qt1 + ( 1 ) . p t1 ,if X t >0
Where,
X t =actual demand dataon period t
Z t =average demand forecasting on period t ( positive value )
pt =range average between demand nonzero observed on period t
q=range onlast demand
=smoothing factor ( constanta ) between 10

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SBA Method
Syntetos - Boylan Approximation (SBA) methods is a correction to the Crotons method. Syntetos
and Boylan (2001) showed that the original Crotons method is biased. To correct this bias then
Syntetos and Boylan proposes reducing Crotons forecasting methods by a factor
2 .
Zt
( 2 ) . p
Ft +1= 1
Where,
Z t =average demand forecasting on period t ( positive value )
pt =range average between demand nonzero observed on period t
3 ERROR MEASUREMENTS
Error is generally measured in two ways, deviation and bias.
a Deviation
Deviation used to measures address the amount that the forecast is in error, whether in a positive or
negative direction. The deviation is normally measured by the mean absolute deviation (MAD).
E =Dt F t
Error ( t )
1
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

This used to measures average absolute error deviation of forecast from actuals and the value must be
as small as possible.
E
|F D |
t n t = nt
Where,
D t =demand period t

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Mean Square Error (MSE)

This used to measures variance of forecast error but is not as easily interpreted as MAD, or MAPE.
MSE recognizes that large errors are disproportionately more expensive than small errors
2
Et 2
|F tDt|
n = n
Where,
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)

Mean absolute percent error (MAPE) do as same as MAD, but MAPE measures deviation as a
percentage of actual data.
Where,
|F tDt|
n
100 =
Et
Dt
100
n

Bias
Bias is a tendency of the forecast to be either consistently higher than or consistently lower than
actual. Bias is same as mean forecast error (MFE). This used to measures average deviation of forecast
from actuals and we want MFE to be as close to zero as possible, so it can be minimum bias. But, zero
MFE does not imply that forecasts are perfect (no error), it only that mean is on target
( DF )
n

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Where,
Ft =f orecast for thenext period
4 REORDER LEVEL (ROL) GOODS

ROL goods are goods that fast-moving or dynamic with routine requests from the user so it should always be
available in a certain amount. ROL goods are common and readily available items, so that the process of
purchasing or procurement can be done quickly.
There is typically a lag time between the point at which stock is ordered and the time in which it is delivered.
The reorder level of stock is often set at a figure higher than zero to take this time period into account. Therefore,
the reorder level is set so that the stock level will reach at or around zero about the time the next shipment of
stock is anticipated to arrive.
By having a realistic Re-Order Level, we would not only ensure that there have enough stock when required
but also that do not overstock. The Re-Order level takes into account the following:
The ongoing usage of the Item

The lag time between the point at which stock is ordered and the time in which it is delivered.
Optionally, a level of safety stock to cover instances where the normal delivery lead time has not been
met.
Order quantity
Re-order Level
Picture 15. Inventory level graphics

Stock
Lead time Usage. This is
evaluated from theSafety
lead time
(in days) multiplied by the Average Usage per day. This is
Lead time
the Re-Order Level in its simplest form. For example, item ABC has a supply lead time of 7 days, with a usage of
50 per day would give a Re-Order Level of 7 days x 50 = 350 units.
Safety Stock. It is use to cover instances where supply orders are not received on time, or we would like to keep
additional stock on hand for emergency situations. The Safety Stock can be a simple calculation such as having 2
days-worth of stock on hand at all times or a more complex calculation based on short-term future demand. By
including Safety Stock the Re-Order Level would now be calculated from:
Re-Order Level = (Lead Time x Demand per Day) + Safety Stock

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The Re-Order Quantity does not enter into this calculation as that quantity is based on other factors such as
Holding and Ordering Costs. This parameter merely triggers an Ordering action based upon when the current
stock has reduced to the Re-Order Level.
METHODOLOGY
A

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Data & Process

In this research, we use ROL goods as an object because these items are spare parts of the most crucial and most
widely asked by user. Observed object consists of six types of spare parts are three types of grind stone, two
types of conveyor and pressure indicator, also bearing ball, valve and v-belt that each as one piece. We determine
these items as an object using random sample technique in Microsoft excel then we get:
Table 5. Re-Order Level Goods
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NO
Part No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
045564.7
045566.0
039444.0
000381.5
035312.7
035313.9
009172.8
009452.3
054093.6
030774.9
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Item name
Grind stone A
Grind stone B
Grind stone C
Bearing, Ball
Conveyor A
Conveyor B
Pressure indicator A
Pressure indicator B
Valve, Powered
V-belt

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The following table is shows the usage and availability spare parts in warehouse in recent month (April 2016).
Total quality on hand is recent exist amount of goods at the warehouse. Assign is shows a number of recent usage
by user. And available is the rest spare parts available in warehouse.
Table 6. Usage and Availability Re-Order Level Goods in Warehouse on April 2016
Name of Goods
GRIND STONE -- BATU-GERINDA-102X16X3,4MM -- FLEXOVIT
GRIND STONE -- BATU-GERINDA-356X25,4X3MM -- FLEXOVIT
GRIND STONE -- A36PB-180X6.4X22.23MM -- K-FLEX
BEARING,BALL,ANNULAR -- BEARING-6204.2RS -- AKG
CONVEYOR BELT FASTENER -- 1,5E-STEEL -- FLEXCO
CONVEYOR BELT FASTENER -- 1E-STEEL -- JACKSON
PRESSURE INDICATOR -- MODEL S X 500 A4D D18 -- SCHUH
PRESSURE INDICATOR -- MEX5-DF60-F19 -- BAUMER
VALVE, SOLENOID 2 WAY -- HE-8025-B-224 -- ASCO
BELT,V -- V-BELT-C-109 -- BANDO
Total of
Quantity On
Hand
2250
248
100
843
1050
750
10
12
2
48
ASSIG
N
300
0
0
6
0
0
6
0
0
6
In this research we use historical demand data from 2011 until 2014 which is have different in every years,
even there is a big different demand in some spare parts. Based on expertise, that problem is a common condition
because a decisive whether more or less demand is user. Furthermore, the demand also follow the condition of
each machine. The following table shows the usage of re-order level goods from 2011 until 2014 along with the
averages:

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Table 6. Usage of Re-Order Level Goods

Name of Goods
GRIND STONE -- BATU-GERINDA-102X16X3,4MM -- FLEXOVIT
GRIND STONE -- BATU-GERINDA-356X25,4X3MM -- FLEXOVIT
GRIND STONE -- A36PB-180X6.4X22.23MM -- K-FLEX
BEARING,BALL,ANNULAR -- BEARING-6204.2RS -- AKG
CONVEYOR BELT FASTENER -- 1,5E-STEEL -- FLEXCO
CONVEYOR BELT FASTENER -- 1E-STEEL -- JACKSON
PRESSURE INDICATOR -- MODEL S X 500 A4D D18 -- SCHUH
PRESSURE INDICATOR -- MEX5-DF60-F19 -- BAUMER
VALVE, SOLENOID 2 WAY -- HE-8025-B-224 -- ASCO
BELT,V -- V-BELT-C-109 -- BANDO
2011
5450
1377
1850
1945
1125
350
37
17
2
6
Usage Total
2012 2013
3050 2790
976 1494
3350 500
2386 1823
600 1200
250
200
24
25
10
25
0
2
3
0
2014
3780
1515
300
2396
700
400
55
30
0
63
Averag
37
13
15
21
90
30
3
2
2
2
The pattern of demand for spare parts consists of four categories: slow moving, intermittent, erratic, and
lumpy. So, to determine the pattern we needs to calculate using of ADI and CV. This calculation use all chosen
spare parts for twelve periods. The following table show it:
Table 7. Demand Rate of Re-Order Level Goods Using ADI and CV
Demand
Per.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
ADI
STD
Avg.
CV
Grind
stone A
Grind
stone B
Grind
stone C
Bearing,
Ball
Conv. A
Conv.
B
0
500
320
550
449
0
0
656
518
0
543
232
3768
1.25
255.96
314.00
0.82
0
0
140
105
130
150
153
147
0
102
120
294
1341
1.00
83.35
111.75
0.75
0
150
60
140
190
150
110
160
0
120
180
240
1500
1.00
73.17
125.00
0.59
160
120
0
110
330
450
58
290
0
200
280
140
2138
1.10
137.52
178.17
0.77
0
50
90
0
66
95
140
110
135
0
0
220
906
1.25
70.00
75.50
0.93
0
0
30
40
25
15
14
18
13
0
0
145
300
1.13
39.96
25.00
1.60
Pressure
indicator
A
0
0
3
7
1
2
0
0
10
0
0
12
35
1.50
4.32
2.92
1.48
Pressure
indicator B
0
5
0
1
0
1
0
0
6
0
0
8
21
2.00
2.86
1.75
1.64
From table 7, we know that in ADI calculation, v-belt have the highest number and the lowest number are
valve and grindstone B and C. In CV calculation, valve have the highest number and grindstone C have the
lowest number. For more details, table 8 shows the value ADI and CV as well as a category for each spare parts
Page 4

Spare part
ADI
Grind stone A
1.25
Grind stone B
1.00
Grind stone C
1.00
Bearing, Ball
1.10
Conveyor A
1.25
Conveyor B
1.13
1.50
2.00
Valve, Powered
1.00
V-belt
2.20
0.2
0.6
Deman
Period
F, 0.2
d
314
1
0
251
2
500
301
3
320
305
4
550
354
5
449
373
6
0
298
7
0
239
8
656
322
9
518
361
10
0
289
11
543
340
12
232
318
Average
CV
0.82
0.75
0.59
0.77
0.93
1.60
1.48
1.64
3.46
1.37
F, 0.6
314
126
350
332
463
455
182
73
423
480
192
403
300
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Category
Erratic
Erratic
Erratic
Erratic
Erratic
Erratic
Table 9. Forecast and Error for Grindstone
A Using SES Method
Lumpy
Lumpy
Erratic
Lumpy
Grind stone A
MAD,
MAD,
MSE,
MSE,
MA
e, 0.2
e, 0.6
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.
Table 8. Spare Parts Demand Pattern
-314
199
15
196
76
-298
-239
334
157
-289
203
-86
-314
150
-12
87
-6
-182
-73
233
38
-192
140
-68
314
199
15
196
76
298
239
334
157
289
203
86
201
314
150
12
87
6
182
73
233
38
192
140
68
125
98596
39617
232
38489
5799
88972
56942
111489
24561
83535
41282
7440
49746
98596
22428
146
7597
31
33056
5289
54433
1453
36845
19718
4656
23687
From table 8 we know that grind stone, bearing, conveyor fastener and valve are erratic, while pressure indicator
and v-belt are lumpy.
Table 9 menunjukkan hasil peramalan permintaan item Grindstone A dengan menggunakan metode single
exponential smoothing. Dengan menggunakan data permintaan masa dan alpha 0.2 didapatkan hsail peramalan
untuk 12 periode selanjutnya. Nilai rata-rata error yang didapatkan dengan menggunakan metode SES adalah
21% hasil ini lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan menggunakan metode Crostons yaitu sebesar 32,87% yang
ditunjukkan pada Tabel 10. Tingkat error dengan menggunakan SBA method lebih besar dibandingkan dengan
Crostons. Tingkat error pada metode SBA yaitu sebesar 33,39% yang ditunjukkan pada Tabel 11. Untuk
perhitungan peramalan permintaan dan error untuk 9 item sparepart lainnya dapat dilihat pada Apendix 1.
Table 10. Forecast and Error for Grindstone A Using Crostons Method
Period
(t)
Demand
(Xt)
Gt
Zt ()
0.2
0
0
Pt
Ft
e, 0.2
MAD,
0.2
MSE,
0.2
MAPE,
0.2
0.00

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0
40
5
36
17
0
0
51
30
0
37
37
2

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
500
320
550
449
0
0
656
518
0
543
232
1
1
1
1
2
3
1
1
2
1
1
100.00
144.00
225.20
269.96
215.97
172.77
269.42
319.14
255.31
312.85
296.68
Average
0.20
0.36
0.49
0.59
0.87
1.30
1.24
1.19
1.35
1.28
1.23
0
500
400
461
457
248
133
218
268
189
244
500
-180
150
-12
-457
-248
523
300
-268
354
-12
500
180
150
12
457
248
523
300
268
354
12
54.18
250.41

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250000
32400
22500
156
209077
61295
273400
90255
71845
125481
145
94712.8
6
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100
56
27
3
0
0
80
58
0
65
5
32.87
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Table 11. Forecast and Error for Grindstone A Using SBA Method
Period
(t)
Demand
(Xt)
Gt
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
500
320
550
449
0
0
1
1
1
1
2
656
518
543
232
7
8
9
10
11
12
Zt ()
0.2
0
0
100
144
225.2
269.96
215.968
172.774
4
269.419
5
319.135
6
255.308
5
312.846
8
296.677
4
Pt
Zt/Pt
Ft
e, 0.2
MAD,
0.2
MSE,
0.2
MAPE,
0.2
0.00
0.20
0.36
0.49
0.59
0.87
0
500
400
461
457
248
0
0
450
360
415
412
0
500
-130
190
34
-412
0
500
130
190
34
412
0
250000
16900
36100
1134
169352
0
100
41
35
7
0
1.30
133
223
-223
223
49649
1.24
218
120
536
536
287499
82
1.19
268
196
322
322
103802
62
1.35
189
241
-241
241
58195
1.28
244
170
373
373
139211
69
1.23
242
220
12
12
80.16
247.76
153
92666.2
0
Average
33.39
Analysis
Analisis untuk hasil yang telah didapatkan adalah sebaga berikut. Figure 1, 2, dan 3 menunjukkan grafik
peramalan permintaan sparepart Grind stone A dengan menggunakan metode SES, Crostons, dan SBA dengan
menggunakan nilai alpha sebesar 0.2. Semakin kecil nilai alpha yang digunakan , maka kana semakin baik. Hal
ini dikarenakan akan menghasilkan hasil peramalan yang tidak berbeda jauh dengan data masa lalu.
Grind stone A
800
600
400
Amount
200
0
Demand
Ft (0.2)
Ft (0.6)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Page 7
Internship Report
Grind stone A
800
600
Demand
400
Amount
200
Ft
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period
Grind stone A
800
600
Amount
Demand
400
Ft
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
Period
Figure 4 menunjukkan hasil MAPE untuk 10 item spare part yang digunakan pada penelitian ini. Nilai MAPE
terbesar yaitu pada sparepart pressure indicator A sebesar 57,37% dengan menggunakan metode Crostons,
sedangkan nilai MAPE terkecil yaitu pada sparepart batu gerinda B sebesar 0.33% dengan menggunakan metode
SBA. Rata-rata nilai error terkecil yaitu dengan menggunakan metode SES sebesar 23,24%, selanjutnya dengan
metode SBA sebesar 26,25% dan metode Crostons sebesar 36,72%.
MAPE Chart ( = 0.2)

70.00
Batu gerinda A
Batu gerinda B
Batu gerinda C
Valve, Powered
Conveyor A
Bearing, Ball
Conveyor B
30.00
V-belt
20.00
Batu gerinda A
60.00
50.00
40.00
10.00
0.00
SES
CR
SBA

Page 8
Internship Report
Conclusions

Page 9
Internship Report
JD Edwards EnterpriseOne Applications Forecast Management Implementation Guide (get online:

www.oracle.com access May 2016)

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mPREFACE

The Spareparts Demand Forecasting Using

Surabaya, May 2016

Anis S.Nurr & Firdausi Gani.S

Spare part Forecasting

MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND

Spare part Forecasting

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

An Overview of PT Petrokimia Gresik

Petrokimia Gresik si located at Gresik Regency, East Java

occupying land of 450 hectares. At the beginning the company

and integrated Plan

facilities. PT Petrokima Gresik has developer high technology

plant started with

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

Name and The Form of Company

Enough available less productive land.

Vision and Mision

Spare part Forecasting

Mision of PT Petrokimia Gresik :

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

Companys Logo and The Meaning

Picture 1. PT Petrokimia Gresiks Logo

A tribute to area Kebomas

Meaning of The Logo

Golden yellow color on the buffalo symbolizes grandeur.

The overall meaning of logo:

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

Unloading 3 million tons / year.

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

Organizational Structure of PT Petrokimia Gresik

Picture 2. Organization Structural in PT Petrokimia Gresik

Spare part Forecasting

Spare part Forecasting

This material parts warehouse is divided into four sections, namely:

Picture 4. Receiving Workflow

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

SPARE PARTS MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

External factors, such as supplier contracts

Judgemental demand forecast

Unit item costs

Statistical demand forecast

Requirements, such as service level

Spare part Forecasting

Picture 5. General procurement procedure

High volumes at steady level Low volume, intermittent

life cycles phases

Eliminate uneven surfaces.

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

or crack. It is used primarily in cutter grinding and jig grinding.

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering

Spare part Forecasting

Picture 7. Grinding wheels for angled grinders 102 x 16 x 3,4 mm

Picture 8. Metal Steel conveyor fastener

Operation & Supply Chain Engineering