Nine key drivers of change

for the global wealth and

asset management industry

Tumultuous change may be in store for the global

wealth and asset management industry in the
year ahead. The US interest rate environment is
likely to shift direction before the end of the year,
oal`l`]jkl_jY\mYdla_`l]faf_kaf[]l`]_dgZYd
fYf[aYd[jakak ?>;!&;gf[]jfkgn]j\]Ylagfaf
the Eurozone and an outright recession in many
emerging-market economies will also weigh
`]Ynadqgfl`]p]\%af[ge]mfan]jk]&9f\l`]
opportunities, or threats, of technology are ever
hj]k]fl&9f]oZj]]\g^l][`jekak\gllaf_
the horizon, offering services at rock-bottom
pricing, unparalleled levels of transparency and
Y\a_alar]\[mklge]j]ph]ja]f[]&L`]af]nalYZd]
rise of the machines in the form of electronic
distribution platforms and robo-advisors may
reshape distribution, wealth management and
l`][gj]Zmkaf]kkeg\]dg^eYfqjekZgl`Yl
the institutional and retail level.

| Nine key drivers of change for the global wealth and asset management industry

In order of impact, we anticipate the top nine drivers for change in

the global wealth and asset management industry will be:
1. The year of MiFID II and transparency. As the signature
post-GFC regulatory legislation in the US, the Dodd-Frank Act
restructured the compliance environment for that nations
fYf[aYdk]jna[]kaf\mkljq&KaeadYjdq$Ea>A<AAoadd`Yn]Y
widespread effect on the regulatory framework for the
=mjgh]Yfo]Ydl`Yf\Ykk]leYfY_]e]flaf\mkljq&9k=mjgh]
is the worlds second-largest market in terms of assets under
eYfY_]e]fl 9ME!$Ea>A<AAoaddY^^][legkl_dgZYdjek$
particularly in how they distribute products, incentivize their
client-facing advisors, and communicate and interact with
[da]flk&AfeYfq[Yk]k$*()-oaddk]]Ykk]leYfY_]e]fljek
thoroughly reviewing and possibly rewriting their playbooks
gf`golgoaff]oZmkaf]kkaf=mjgh]&Afl`]MK$l`]MK
Department of Labor should shortly issue a decision on whether
client-facing advisors will be bound by a highly stringent
\m[aYjq\mlqg^[Yj]afj]kh][llgj]laj]e]flY[[gmflk$Yk
ghhgk]\lgl`]hj]nagmkklYf\Yj\g^kmalYZadalq&L`]f]ojmd]k
and enhanced regulatory framework may very well restructure
how total fees are disclosed and how funds are distributed in the
]fgjegmkj]laj]e]fl%hdYffaf_khY[]&Afk`gjl$l`][gehd]pYf\
changing compliance environment will continue to drive change
afl`]af\mkljq&
2. The drive to grow the top line will likely accelerate M&A
activity. Growth through traditional organic strategies such
as increased spending on marketing, advertising, enhancing
the product suite and hiring strategically is costly and can
lYc]lae]lg\]dan]jlYf_aZd]j]kmdlk&K`Yj]`gd\]jkg^hmZda[dq

ljY\]\jekl]f\lghj]^]jlgk]]j]kmdlkkggf]jjYl`]jl`Yf
dYl]j&>mjl`]j$nYdmYlagfhj]eamekg^eYfqYkk]leYfY_]e]fl
jek$hYjla[mdYjdql`gk]l`YlYj]keYddlgea\kar]$Yj]Z][geaf_
`a_`dqYlljY[lan]&9kkm[`$kljYl]_a[E9Y[lanalqoadddac]dqjak]
ka_fa[Yfldq$\jan]fZql`]\]kaj]^gjYkk]leYfY_]e]fljek
lgjYha\dq_jgol`]ajZmkaf]kk$ZmlafYf][gfgea[Yd$]^[a]fl
Yf\lae]dqeYff]jl`YlY\\knYdm]^gjYddklYc]`gd\]jk&

3. The spending on private wealth management (PWM) growth

will cool and refocus. Kaf[]l`]?>;$k]n]jYdjek`Yn]
Z]]fafYn]jalYZd]YjekjY[]g^kh]f\af_lg]phYf\l`]aj
private wealth management businesses in terms of increasing
`]Y\[gmflYf\Zmad\af_gml[YhY[alq&L`]`a_`dqk[YdYZd]
business model in wealth management offerings made it a
dg_a[Yd_jgol`Yj]Yafl`]`a_`dqjakc%Yn]jk]hgkl%?>;]jY&>gj
*()-$l`]^j]frqlgZjaf_afegj]Yf\egj]k]Ykgf]\Y\nakgjk
and more proven books of business, and the heavy investment
in brand equity and marketing that came with the increased
[YhY[alq$oaddfYddqh]Yc&Afkl]Y\$HOEZmkaf]kkkljYl]_qoadd
change direction and shift focus toward organic growth, as well
Yk`golgaehjgn]hjg\m[lanalq$hjglYZadalqYf\j]n]fm]koal`
]paklaf_j]kgmj[]kYf\oal`]paklaf_[da]flkZqj]kljm[lmjaf_
afl]jfYdhjg[]kk]kYf\]f`Yf[af_l`][da]fl]ph]ja]f[]&>mjl`]j$
a far more targeted and personalized approach to marketing
and client service will slowly be implemented, in which client^Y[af_HOEY\nakgjk[Yj]^mddq[mklgear]l`]aj[geemfa[Ylagf
Yf\k]jna[]klgkh][a[eYjc]lk]_e]flk$km[`YkY^m]fl
oge]f$eYkkeYjc]l$eYkkY^m]fl$`a_`f]logjl` @FO!Yf\
mdljY%`a_`f]logjl` M@FO!&

Nine key drivers of change for the global wealth and asset management industry |

4. The day of reckoning in pensions is near. L`]]flaj]_dgZYd

h]fkagfkkqkl]eo`]l`]jhmZda[k][lgj\]f]\Z]f]lhdYfk
gjhjanYl]af\ana\mYdkkYnaf_afYlYp%k`]dl]j]\j]laj]e]fl
Y[[gmflkm^^]jk^jgeYnYkl\][al_Yh[gn]j]\ZqYl`af
nYjfak`g^khjYqhYafl&Kaehdqhml$_j]Ylhjgeak]k`Yn]
been made, often in legally binding government-guaranteed
[gfljY[lk$Yf\jgkq]ph][lYlagfko]j]k]lYZgml^mlmj]
fYf[aYdYf\`]Ydl`[Yj]k][mjalq&Q]l$afeYfq[Yk]k$^Yjlgg
few assets have been set aside to fund those future promises
Yf\]ph][lYlagfk&9[[gmflaf_j]^gjeoadd^mjl`]jaf[]flanar]
policymakers and stakeholders to address the growing and
ljgmZd]kge]\][alafh]fkagf^mf\af_&L`]\Yqg^j][cgfaf_oadd
likely require more public sector debt to be issued to partially
^mf\l`][mjj]fl\][al$Yko]ddYkka_fa[Yfldqj]kljm[lmj]l`]
Z]f]lkqkl]e$gjYld]YklY_j]Yl]jhmZda[\]ZYl]YZgml`go
little actual capital has been set aside to safely meet growing
]ph][lYlagfkg^^mlmj]h]fkagfkgdn]f[qYf\j]laj]e]flk][mjalq&

All the 13 major pension markets (in the chart below) have experienced an increase
in their pension assets during the past 10 years. However, the general litmus test for
adequate funding is for assets to be at least 150% of GDP.
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10-year CAGR

Australia

Brazil1

Hong Kong

10.0%

UK

France
Canada

Germany2

8.0%

Ireland

Netherlands

Switzerland4
US5
18.9

6.0%
4.0%
2.0%

South Africa

Japan3

0.0%
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Pension AUM/GDP %*
Total Assets 2013e
Kgmj[]2Lgo]jkOYlkgf
Fgl]k2
"9kk]lk'?<HjYlag^gjl`]ogjd\ak[Yd[mdYl]\afMK$Yf\Ykk]lko]j]]klaeYl]\Ykg^+)<][]eZ]j*()+&
)& :jYradkh]fkagfYkk]lkaf[dm\]gfdql`gk]^jge[dgk]\]flala]k&
*& ?]jeYfq[gdd][lkh]fkagfYkk]lkgfdq^gj[gehYfqh]fkagfk[`]e]k&
+& L`ak\g]kfgl[gflYafl`]mf^mf\]\Z]f]lgZda_Ylagfg^[gjhgjYl]h]fkagfk Y[[gmflj][]anYZd]k!&
,& L`akaf[dm\]kgfdql`]lglYdg^Ymlgfgegmkh]fkagf^mf\k$oal`gml[gfka\]jaf_afkmjYf[][gehYfa]kYkk]lk&
-& L`akaf[dm\]kAJ9k&

| Nine key drivers of change for the global wealth and asset management industry

180%

200%

But at the same time, liabilities are also rising. In the US, in particular, the funded
status (proportion of all future liabilities that can safely be met based upon current
assets and actuarial assumptions) is steadily declining.
Aggregate funded status of US DB public plans^^

87%
84%

79%

76%

2007

2008

2009

2010

72%

75%

2011

2012

72%

2013 E

Kgmj[]2;]fl]j^gjJ]laj]e]flJ]k]Yj[`Yl:gklgf;gdd]_]
VVJ]hj]k]flkl`]^mf\]\klYlmk^gj)),klYl]Yf\+.dg[Ydh]fkagfhdYfkafl`]MK$oal`*()+Y[lmYjaYdnYdm]g^Ykk]lkg^MK*&1ljaddagf&

5. The robo-advisor has arrived. A number of electronic

hdYl^gjek`Yn]Y[`a]n]\fgla[]YZd]9ME_jgol`gn]jl`]hYkl
few years and still more will enter the market and see even
kljgf_]j_jgol`&>]Ylmjaf_gfdaf]lggdkYf\najlmYdY\na[]^m]d]\
by algorithms, these low-cost, automated advisory platforms,
g^^]j]\ZqZgl`]klYZdak`]\jekYf\f]ol][`fgdg_qklYjl%mhk$
very effectively target the lower- to middle-income segments
g^l`]eYjc]l$o`a[`akYj_mYZdqgn]j0(g^l`]hghmdYlagfaf
eYfq][gfgea]k&>mjl`]j$l`]k]hdYl^gjekYj]afn]klaf_`]Ynadq
af]f`Yf[af_l`][da]fl]ph]ja]f[]$Yc]qYj]Yo`]j]egkl
jekYj]dggcaf_lg\jan]_jgol`$hYjla[mdYjdq^gjl][`%kYnnq
eadd]ffaYdk&Hjgb][laf_^gjoYj\$l`][`Ydd]f_]^gjYmlgeYl]\
Y\nakgjqhdYl^gjekoaddfglkgem[`Z]kmklYaf]\9ME_jgol`
ZmljYl`]jkmklYafYZadalqg^l`]Zmkaf]kkeg\]dYf\hjglYZadalq&

EYfqeYjc]lk]_e]flkYj]k]jna[]\Zql`]k]YmlgeYl]\
hdYl^gjek^gj^j]]gj^gjYe]j]lgc]f[`Yj_]&O`ad]alak
dYm\YZd]l`YlYhjanYl]k][lgjjeakg^^]jaf_Y^j]]gjdgkk%
making service to lower- or middle-income investors, it is
still unclear whether rock-bottom pricing can eventually
d]Y\lg_]f]jYlaf_hgkalan]Yf\_jgoaf_gh]jYlaf_[Yk`go$
hjglYZadalqYf\dgf_%l]jenaYZadalq&:q[gehYjakgf$f]oklYjl%mh
airlines are launched each year in the global aviation market
and grow rapidly due to rock-bottom pricing, and they are
j]Y\qlgkY[ja[]gh]jYlaf_[Yk`goafl`]k`gjljmflgZmad\
eYjc]lk`Yj]&9f\]n]jqq]Yj$l`]j]Yj]YdkgYajdaf]kl`Yl[]Yk]
operations due to cut-rate pricing and negative operating
[Yk`go&

Nine key drivers of change for the global wealth and asset management industry |

6. ETFs have become the giant gorilla in the room.F]lafgok

lg_dgZYd]p[`Yf_]%ljY\]\^mf\k =L>k!Yf\]p[`Yf_]%ljY\]\
hjg\m[lk =LHk!oadddac]dq]p[]]\l`][geZaf]\f]lafgok
into all alternative investment products within two or three
q]Yjk&9[[gj\af_lg=L>?A$YDgf\gf%ZYk]\afn]kle]flaf\mkljq
j]k]Yj[`je$f]oafgokaflgl`]=L>af\mkljqe]Ykmj]\
MK++0Zaddagfaf*(),$Yf\lglYd9MEYj]]ph][l]\lgkmjhYkk
MK+ljaddagfafl`]jkl`Yd^g^*()-&:q[gehYjakgf$Y[[gj\af_
lg;`a[Y_g%ZYk]\@]\_]>mf\J]k]Yj[`$Af[&$`]\_]^mf\
[YhalYdaf[j]Yk]\ZqMK*+.&.Zaddagfaf*(),$o`a[`af[dm\]\
MK/.&,Zaddagfg^f]lf]oafgok$lgj]Y[`YhhjgpaeYl]dq
MK*&0-ljaddagf&9[[gj\af_lgl`]Ydl]jfYlan]Ykk]lk\YlY
hjgna\]jHj]iaf$l`]_dgZYdYdl]jfYlan]hjg\m[lkaf\mkljq
including hedge funds as well as private equity, private debt,
j]Yd]klYl]Yf\af^jYkljm[lmj]af[j]Yk]\ZqMK.1(Zaddagf
af*(),Yf\]f\]\l`]q]YjYlYjgmf\MK.&1ljaddagf$mh
^jgeMK.&*ljaddagfaf*()+&;d]Yjdq$l`]lglYdYdl]jfYlan]
afn]kle]flaf\mkljq$o`]j]k]n]jYdl`gmkYf\jekgh]jYl]
Yf\fgkaf_d]je[gfljgdkegj]l`Yf)g^lglYdeYjc]lk`Yj]$
ak[]jlYafdqdYj_]jl`Yfl`]=L>mfan]jk]&:q[gehYjakgf$af
=L>k$l`]lghl`j]]hjg\m[lhjgna\]jk[gfljgdgn]j/(g^l`]
_dgZYdeYjc]l&@go]n]j$=L>kYj]\]l]jeaf]\lgaf`]jall`]
]Yjl`&Afn]klgjk$^jgel`]keYdd]klj]lYad[da]flklgl`]dYj_]kl
afklalmlagfk$fgoZ]ll]jmf\]jklYf\o`Yl=L>kYj]$o`Ylaf\a[]k
Yj]$Yf\$egj]g^l]fl`Yffgl$`golg]nYdmYl]l`]e&>mjl`]j$
egklafn]klgjk[YfdggcZY[cYlhYklaf\]ph]j^gjeYf[]Yf\
Z]f[`eYjcaloal`l`]Y[lmYdj]kmdlkg^l`]ajgofhgjl^gdag&
9kkm[`$Yfqjeg^^]jaf_Y[lan]eYfY_]e]fl$]al`]jYkY
registered or an alternative product, will be forced to compete
^gjafn]klgjkYll]flagfYf\oYdd]lk`Yj]Y_Yafkl=L>k$o`]l`]j
l`]qdac]algjfgl&

?jgol`af=L>9ME`YkkmjhYkk]\l`]_jgol`afemlmYd^mf\k9MEY[jgkkl`]MK$=mjgh]Yf\9kaY%HY[a[
2014 AUM two-year CAGR*
26%
22%

10%

11%

12%
7%

US

Europe^
Mutual funds

9kaY%HY[a[
ETFs

Kgmj[]2=L>DYf\k[Yh]$:dY[cJg[c$<][]eZ]j*(),3Afl]jfYlagfYdImYjl]jdq
KlYlakla[YdJ]d]Yk]k$=>9E9
Fgl]k2
")*egfl`k]f\af_<][]eZ]j9ME`YkZ]]flYc]f^gj=L>k$o`ad])*egfl`k]f\af_K]hl]eZ]j9ME`YkZ]]flYc]f^gjemlmYd^mf\k
lg[Yd[mdYl]l`]log%q]Yj[gehgmf\YffmYd_jgol`jYl] ;9?J!&
VJ]hj]k]flk;9?J^gjemlmYd^mf\k9ME^gjZgl`M;ALKYf\fgf%M;ALK&

| Nine key drivers of change for the global wealth and asset management industry

7. Fixed income is still alive and very much kicking. Oa\]khj]Y\hjgfgmf[]e]flk

YZgmll`]aeeaf]fl\]eak]g^l`]p]\%af[ge]Ykk]l[dYkko]j]nYkldqhj]eYlmj]&F]l
afgokaflgp]\af[ge]af*(),o]j]kljgf_dqZmddak`&L`]r]jg%jYl]]fnajgfe]fl
oadddac]dqlYc]Ylmjfafl`]MKl`akq]Yj&>mjl`]j$\]eYf\^gj[YhalYdhj]k]jnYlagfYf\
af[ge]$]p`aZal]\egkl[d]YjdqZql`]_jgol`g^gml[ge]%gja]flYl]\kgdmlagfkkm[`Yk
target date funds, is stronger than ever, owing to the rapidly growing market segment
g^h]fkagf]jkYf\ZYZqZgge]jk&<]eYf\akZggeaf_^gjZgf\%dac]hjg\m[lk$km[`
Ykj]Yd]klYl]afn]kle]flljmklk J=ALk!$hj]^]jj]\k`Yj]kakkm]\Zqafn]kle]fl%_jY\]
[gjhgjYl]kYf\af^jYkljm[lmj]fYf[]hYjlf]jk`ahk&Afk`gjl$afn]klgjkoYfllgZmq
p]\af[ge]$Yf\l`]qoYfllgZmqalfgo&?an]fl`]hj]k]fldgo%jYl]]fnajgfe]fl$
l`][`Ydd]f_]^gjp]\%af[ge]eYfY_]jkoadd[]jlYafdqZ]afY[`a]naf_Yf][gfgea[Yddq
kmklYafYZd]Zmkaf]kkeg\]d$hYjla[mdYjdq^gjk`gjl%lgea\%\mjYlagfhjg\m[lk&

9^l]jYeml]\*()+$p]\af[ge]afgokaehjgn]\af*(),
250
200

Net sales (in US$b)

150
100
50
0
-50

-100
-150
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2012
Equity

Q3

Q4

Q1

2013
Bond

Money market

Q2

Q3

2014
Balanced

Other

Kgmj[]2=mjgh]Yf>mf\Yf\9kk]lEYfY_]e]fl9kkg[aYlagf =>9E9!

Nine key drivers of change for the global wealth and asset management industry |

8. Emerging markets (EMs) will see limited growth. L`]j][]fl

ruble crisis, weakening global commodity prices and the bubble
af;`af]k]]imalqeYjc]lk`Yn]^gj[]\l`]]flaj]=Eafn]kle]fl
[geemfalqlgj]Ykk]kkl`]aj]klaeYl]kg^^mlmj]_jgol`&
O`ad]l`]j]oadd[]jlYafdqZ]hg[c]lkg^jYha\_jgol`af[]jlYaf
eYjc]lk$km[`YkAf\gf]kaYYf\Af\aY$egklg^l`]=Emfan]jk]
oadd^Y[]j]\m[]\afn]klgj\]eYf\&Fg\gmZlafn]klgjkaf
emerging and frontier markets are all too familiar with volatility
Yf\jakc&AfgokoaddZ]`glafkge]q]YjkZmlfglafgl`]jk&>gj
*()-$hYjla[mdYjdq_an]fl`][gjj][lagfaf_dgZYd[geeg\alq
hja[]k$l`]j]oadddac]dqZ]f]lgmlgokafl`]=EYkk]l[dYkk$
Zgl`gfl`]p]\af[ge]Yf\]imalqka\]k$Yf\Ykk]leYfY_]jk
will likely rationalize capacity in terms of spending, product
kmal]Yf\`]Y\[gmflYkYj]kmdl&;`afY$afhYjla[mdYj$akkm[`
a potentially vast market that it more than merits continued
investment and attention, albeit somewhat moderated from
j][]flq]Yjk&@go]n]j$af[j]Ykaf_[gf[]jfkYZgml]p[]kkan]
volatility, transparency and regulatory oversight, as well as a
_]f]jYdj]lj]f[`e]flg^l`]_dgZYd=EYkk]l[dYkkl`akq]Yj$oadd
daeall`]Za\^gj]phgkmj]lg;`afY&Gf]\Yq$;`afYoaddZ][ge]
Ylgh%n]eYjc]l^gjl`]_dgZYdo]Ydl`Yf\Ykk]leYfY_]e]fl
af\mkljqZmlfglaf*()-&

After having experienced double-digit growth for years, China is now heading for more muted growth

14.2%
12.7%
11.3%
10.1%

9.6%

10.4%
9.3%

9.2%

7.7%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

7.7%

2013

Chinas GDP growth rate

Note: 201318 are estimates
Kgmj[]2AE>

| Nine key drivers of change for the global wealth and asset management industry

7.4%

2014

7.1%

6.8%

6.6%

6.4%

2015

2016

2017

2018

L`Yl\]ZYl]oadddYj_]dqj]eYaf[gff]\lgY[Y\]eaYYf\l`]
e]\aY&>gjl`]j]klg^*()-$hmZda[dqljY\]\Ykk]leYfY_]jk
will look to enhance their capital structure and return cash to
k`Yj]`gd\]jk]n]fegj]jYha\dql`jgm_`k`Yj]ZmqZY[ck&

9. Share buybacks will accelerate.L`]j]akem[`\]ZYl]afl`]

fYf[aYde]\aYYf\Y[Y\]eaYYZgmlo`]l`]jk`Yj]ZmqZY[ck
Yj]l`]egkl]^^][lan]mk]g^]p[]kkgh]jYlaf_[Yk`goYk
ghhgk]\lg\ana\]f\af[j]Yk]kgjegj][YhalYd]ph]f\almj]&

K]n]jYdjek`Yn]Z]]fmkaf_k`Yj]ZmqZY[ckYkYeg\]g^hYqaf_ZY[clgk`Yj]`gd\]jk
Buyback in 3Q14 (US$m)**

AMG

BEN

FII^

IVZ

LM

NTRS

TROW

and outstanding repurchase authorizations indicate share buyback activity is likely to continue
Outstanding stock repurchase authorization (US$m) as on September 2014**

1,737

1,277

617
412
190

273

20
AMG*

BEN*

FII*

IVZ

LM

NTRS

TROW*

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Fgl]k2
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"GmlklYf\af_klg[cj]hmj[`Yk]Yml`gjarYlagf afMKe!akaf\a[Ylan]$Yjjan]\YlZqemdlahdqaf_l`]gmlklYf\af_fmeZ]jg^k`Yj]klgZ]
j]hmj[`Yk]\$Yk\ak[dgk]\Zql`]je$oal`l`]k`Yj][dgkaf_hja[]gf-<][]eZ]j*(),&
"">gddgoaf_akl`]daklg^jek]pYeaf]\^gjl`][`YjlkYZgn]2
9Z]j\]]f9kk]lEYfY_]e]fl 9<F!$9ddaYf[]:]jfkl]af 9:!$9^daYl]\EYfY_]jk?jgmh 9E?!$>]\]jYl]\Afn]klgjk >AA!$>jYfcdafJ]kgmj[]k
:=F!$Afn]k[g ANR!$D]__EYkgf DE!$EYf?jgmh =E?!$FYlapak CF!$Fgjl`]jfLjmkl FLJK!$K[`jg\]jk K<J!$L&Jgo]Hja[] LJGO!

Nine key drivers of change for the global wealth and asset management industry |

;gflY[lk
Michael Lee
?dgZYdO]Ydl`9kk]lEYfY_]e]fl
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