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LCCI International Qualifications

Business Statistics
Level 3

Model Answers
Series 2 2012 (3009)

For further
information
contact us:

Tel. +44 (0) 8707 202909


Email. enquiries@ediplc.com
www.lcci.org.uk

Business Statistics Level 3


Series 2 2012

How to use this booklet


Model Answers have been developed by EDI to offer additional information and guidance to Centres,
teachers and candidates as they prepare for LCCI International Qualifications. The contents of this
booklet are divided into 3 elements:
(1)

Questions

reproduced from the printed examination paper

(2)

Model Answers

summary of the main points that the Chief Examiner expected to


see in the answers to each question in the examination paper, plus
a fully worked example or sample answer (where applicable)

(3)

Helpful Hints

where appropriate, additional guidance relating to individual


questions or to examination technique

Teachers and candidates should find this booklet an invaluable teaching tool and an aid to success.
EDI provides Model Answers to help candidates gain a general understanding of the standard required.
The general standard of model answers is one that would achieve a Distinction grade. EDI accepts that
candidates may offer other answers that could be equally valid.

Education Development International plc 2012


All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise
without prior written permission of the Publisher. The book may not be lent, resold, hired out or
otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover, other than that in which it is
published, without the prior consent of the Publisher.

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 1 of 18

QUESTION 1
A company wishes to estimate a regression line for the relationship between sales and advertising.
To arrive at its decision regarding the best model to use the company calculates three correlation
coefficients.
(a)

(i)

The sales in any month depend on that months advertising with r = 0.15

(ii)

The sales in any month depend on 50% of the previous months advertising
and 50% of that months advertising with r = 0.66

(iii)

The sales in any month depend on the previous months advertising with r = 0.94

Interpret each of the above correlation coefficients and state which of the suggested models you would
chose as the basis for predicting sales. Justify your answer.
(5 marks)
The advertising and sales figures for the last twelve months is shown in the following table.
Month

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Advertising
00

20

22

36

45

26

35

80

65

36

72

29

35

Sales
000

33

45

47

65

89

37

55

117

85

49

105

38

(b)

Using your conclusions from part (a) estimate the least squares regression line for
the above data.
(10 marks)

(c)

Estimate the level of sales in May 2012 when advertising in April 2012 is 85,000 and May 2012
90,000. Comment on the likely accuracy of your answer.
(5 marks)
(Total 20 marks)

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 2 of 18

MODEL ANSWER TO QUESTION 1


Syllabus Topic 3.1: Correlation and regression
(a)

(i)
(ii)
(iii)

This is low positive correlation


This is reasonably strong positive correlation
This is strong positive correlation coefficient.

The best model to use is the sales in any month depend on the previous
months advertising as the coefficient of correlation is 0.94
(b)

x = 466 y = 732 x2 = 24052 xy = 36477

n xy x y

y bx

n x x

11 36477 466 732


= 1.268 (1.27)
11 24052 466 2

732
466
= 12.818 (12.82)
1.268
11
11

y = 12.818 +1.268x
(c)

y = 12.818 + 85x1.268 = 120.619 (000)

Given the value of the coefficient of correlation the estimate could be considered
to be accurate, however the level of advertising is outside the range of the data on
which the regression equation is based (extrapolation) which reduces the likelihood
of accuracy.

3x1

2
4x1
1m 1 ft 1 cao

1m 1cao
1 cao
1m 1ft 1cao

2
1cao

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 3 of 18

QUESTION 2
The average weight of a paperback book is 650 grams with a standard deviation of 50 grams. An
internet bookshop usually receives orders for three books at a time. Assume the weight of the books is
normally distributed.
(a)

Find the probability that an order for three books weighs:


(i)
(ii)
(iii)

under 1900 grams


over 1975 grams
between 1900 and 1975 grams.
(13 marks)

The weight of the packaging for three books is normally distributed with mean 200 grams and standard
deviation of 20 grams.
(b)

Find the probability that an order for three books and its packaging weighs more than
2250 grams.
(4 marks)

The companys delivery contract charges 2.75 for all deliveries which weigh 2250 grams and below and
3.50 for deliveries which weigh more than 2250 grams.
(c)

Estimate the expected cost for the delivery of 3 books.


(3 marks)
(Total 20 marks)

MODEL ANSWER TO QUESTION 2


Syllabus Topic 4.2: Normal distribution
(a)

Joint mean = 3 x x = 3 x 650 = 1950 grams


Joint Standard deviation =

(i)

3 sd 2 =

Under 1900 grams z =

3 50 2 =

7500 = 86.6

x x 1900 1950
=
= 0.58 (0.6), table p = 0.726
86.6
sd

Over 1975 grams z =

x x 1975 1950
=
= 0.29 (0.3), table p = 0.618
86.6
sd

1m 1ft

(iii)

1900 to 1950 = 0.726 0.5 = 0.226


1950 to 1975 = 0.618 - 0.5 = 0.118
Between 1900 and 1975 grams = 0.344

z=
(c)

1cao
1cao

Joint mean = x1 x 2 = 1950+ 200 = 2150


Joint standard deviation =

sd 12 sd 22 =

86.6 2 20 2 = 88.9

x x 2250 2150
=
= 1.1, table p = 0.864 answer = 1 - 0.864 = 0.136
88.9
sd

Expected cost = 2.75 x 0.864 +3.50 x 0.136 = 2.85

ASE3009/2/12/MA

1m
1cao

Answer = 1 0.618 = 0.382

(b)

1m 1ft 1cao
1m 1ft 1 cao

Ans 1-0.726 = 0.274


(ii)

1m 1cao

Page 4 of 18

1cao
1ft 1cao
1m 1ft 1 cao

QUESTION 3
(a)

Explain what is meant by the standard error of the mean.


(4 marks)

A company advertises its job vacancies in the newspapers and through an internet recruitment site.
A random sample of vacancies showed the response rate from the two media.
Job

Newspapers

37

45

36

57

29

21

46

89

Internet site

43

42

45

61

36

26

45

102

(b)

Test whether the mean is higher from the internet site than the newspapers.
(12 marks)

(c)

State the alternative hypothesis if you had carried out a two tail test and the conclusions
you would come to.
(4 marks)
(Total 20 marks)

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 5 of 18

MODEL ANSWER TO QUESTION 3


Syllabus Topic 2.1: Measures of location, Syllabus Topic 2.2: Measures of location,
Syllabus Topic 5.1: Procedure for significance, Syllabus Topic 5.2: Type I and Type II errors
Syllabus Topic 5.3: Significance tests n=>30
(a)

The standard error of the mean is the standard deviation of the distribution of
the means when samples of a given size are taken from a population.

2x2

It equals se

Where is the population standard deviation and n is the sample size.


(b)

Null hypothesis: There is no difference in the mean response of the two media.
Alternative hypothesis: The internet site provides a greater mean response.

1cao
1cao

Degrees of freedom = n 1 = 8-1 = 7


Critical t value one tail = 1.90/3.00

1 cao
1cao

Job

Newspapers

37

45

36

57

29

21

46

89

Internet site

43

42

45

61

36

26

45

102

Difference d

-6

-9

-4

-7

-5

-13

d2

d d

36

81

16

49

25

64

16

1 169

Total

d 1cao
2

d or
-40

d d
1cao

386

d d

d = 40/8 = 5 sdd =

z=

n 1

36

64

186

186
= 5.16
7

d 0
50
=
= -2.74
sd d
5.16
n

1m 1cao

Conclusions: Reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 significance level. The internet site
provides a greater response rate. Accept the null hypothesis at the 0.01 significance level.
There is no difference in the response rate between the two media.
(c)

1m 1cao

2ft

The alternative hypothesis would be H1: There is a difference in the mean


response between the two media.
A two tail test has critical t values of 2.37 and 3.50. The conclusion would be the
same as the absolute calculated t value >2.37 and < 3.50

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 6 of 18

2x2

QUESTION 4
A doctors surgery records the number of patients who attend per quarter over a three year period.
Patients (000)
Year/Quarter

2009

36

28

48

68

2010

44

36

56

76

2011

44

36

64

76

(a)

Graph the data and comment on the pattern shown.


(4 marks)

(b)

Find the four quarter centred moving average and the average quarterly variations
for the time series.
(10 marks)

(c)

(i)

Estimate the number of patients in quarter 1 and quarter 2 of 2012.

(ii)

If a basic payment of 10.50 is made for each attendance at the surgery what
is the total expected income of the surgery for the estimated number of patients
over the first two quarters of 2012?
(6 marks)
(Total 20 marks)

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 7 of 18

MODEL ANSWER TO QUESTION 4


Syllabus Topic 3.2: Time series
(a)
Times Series

1 axes,
scale labels
2 plots

80

Number of Patients

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

1
1

2
2

2009

3
3

4
4

2
3
6
7
2010
Tim e periods

2
10
2011

11

Comment: The data shows a strong quarterly variation with an upwards trend.
Patients

Moving
total 1

12

1 comment

Moving
Moving
Additive
OR
total 2 average/Trend Differences Multiplicative
Factors

36

MA/Trend = 6

28
48

180

368

46

1.04

68

188

384

48

20

1.42

44

196

400

50

-6

0.88

36

204

416

52

-16

0.69

56

212

424

53

1.06

76

212

424

53

23

1.43

44

212

432

54

-10

0.81

36

220

440

55

-19

0.65

64

220

76
1m cao

ASE3009/2/12/MA

1m 1ft

1m 1ft

1m 1ft or

Page 8 of 18

1m 1ft

Differences = 2

MODEL ANSWER TOQUESTION 4 CONTINUED


(b)
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
1

Year 2008

20

23

2009

-6

-16

2010

-10

-19

Total quarterly variation

-16

-35

43

Average quarterly variation

-8

-17.5

2.5

21.5

(c)

(i)

Growth rate per quarter = Tn T1


n1

1m 1cao

= 55 46 = 1.29
81

Predicted patients quarter 1 2012 = (55 + 1.29 x 3) 8 = 58.87 8 = 50.87


Predicted patients quarter 2 2012 = (55 + 1.29 x 4) 17.5 = 60.16 17.5 = 42.66
(ii)

1m 1cao

1m 1cao
1m 1cao

(50.87 + 42.66) x 10.50 = 93.74 x 10.50 = 982.07 (000)

OR

OR
Multiplicative Factors
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
1

Year 2008

1.04

1.42

1.06

1.43

2009

0.88

0.69

2010

0.81

0.65

Total quarterly variation

1.69

1.35

2.10

2.85

Average quarterly variation

0.85

0.67

1.05

1.43

(c)

(i)

Growth rate per quarter = Tn T1


n1

= 55 46 = 1.29
81

Predicted patients quarter 1 2012 = (55 + 1.29 x 3) 8 = 58.87 x 0.85 = 50.0


Predicted patients quarter 2 2012 = (55 + 1.29 x 4) 17.5 = 60.16 x 0.67 = 40.3
(ii)

(50 + 40.3) x 10.50 = 90.3 x 10.50 948.15 (000)

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 9 of 18

1m 1cao

1m 1cao
1m 1cao
1m 1cao

QUESTION 5
A company discusses with its marketing agency how it might collect information from its customers.
The agency suggests three possibilities:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(a)

personal interview
telephone interview
email interview.

Describe two advantages and two disadvantages of each method.


(12 marks)

(b)

A previous sample of 4000 customers showed that 37% of the customers held a
positive view of the company. How large a sample should be taken to be 95% certain
that the estimated results are within 3% of the views held by all customers?
(4 marks)

A survey using the sample size calculated in part (b) produces a result that 33% of customers hold a
positive view of the company.
(c)

By pooling the results of the two samples what percentage of customers hold a positive
view of the company?
(4 marks)
(Total 20 marks)

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 10 of 18

MODEL ANSWER TO QUESTION 5


Syllabus Topic 1.2: Survey methodology
(a)

Personal Interview. The interviewer and respondent meet face to face to conduct
the interview.
Advantages: Social clues e.g. body language, can be obtained. Questions can be
explained. Further information can be developed from the respondent. No time delay
between question and answer.
Disadvantages: Interviewer bias or interference in the process, time taken to
transcribe the interview, cost especially if respondents are widely spread. Need to
agree a mutually agreeable time and place for the interview.

2+2

2+2

Telephone interview. The interview is carried out using the telephone.


Advantages: A wider range of respondent can be reached as there is no need for
a face to face meeting. The cost will be lower. Able to react to the respondents
replies.
Disadvantages: No social clues available, no awareness of the circumstances in
which the interview takes place which may affect the responses. Easier for the
respondent to break-off the interview. Unable to standardise the process.

2+2

Email interview. A questionnaire is drawn up in the usual way and distributed


by email to the respondents.

More than one


word answers
for full credit

Advantages: A wider range of respondent can be reached as there is no need for


a face to face meeting. The cost will be lower. No need for an agreed time for an
interview. The respondent can answer at their own pace. The responses can be
downloaded directly to the computer. The respondent may be prepared to give
answers which might not usually be acceptable. The respondent has time to think
about the answer.
Disadvantages: Complete lack of social clues. Unable to extend/develop a question.
The interviewee may cost a lot of time for the interviewer. Due to the asynchronous
communication of time, the interviewee might wait sometimes for days or weeks
before he/she answers the questions. The interviewee may fail to respond.
Spontaneous answers may be reduced.
(b)

z = 1.96 d = 0.03
2

n = z /(d x(p(1-p))
(c)

1.96 /(0.03 x (0.37x0.63)) = 995


(1036 if z =2 used)

1.96 1cao
1m 1ft 1cao

Pooled probability = 4000 x 0.37 + 995 x 0.33 = 1480 + 328.35


= 1808.35/4995 = 0.362

1m 1ft
1m 1cao

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 11 of 18

QUESTION 6
A company sources its products from a number of countries and records the number of items sold by
price and country.
Origin

Under 8

8 and under 12

12 and under 20

20 and over

France

70

50

30

30

Spain

110

80

40

50

USA

60

60

30

20

Australia

70

40

20

20

(a)

Test whether there is an association between price and country of origin.


(12 marks)

Ten years ago the proportions of products bought by the company from each country were.

(b)

France

Spain

USA

Australia

24%

33%

24%

19%

Test whether the origin of the products has changed over the ten year period.
(8 marks)
(Total 20 marks)

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 12 of 18

MODEL ANSWER TOQUESTION 6


Syllabus Topic 1.1: Graphical presentation
Syllabus Topic 5.5: Chi-square tests
(a)

Null hypothesis: There is no association between the number of bottles sold


in different price categories and the countries of origin.
Alternative hypothesis: There is association between the number of bottles
sold in different price categories and the countries of origin.
Degrees of freedom = (R-1)(C-1) = (4 -1)(4 1) = 9
Critical 2 = 16.92/21.67
Contributions to 2

Expected Values
53.1

27.7

27.7

0.03

0.18

0.19

0.19

111.3 82.6

43.1

43.1

0.01

0.08

0.22

1.11

67.6

50.1

26.2

26.2

0.85

1.94

0.57

1.45

59.6

44.2

23.1

23.1

1.81

0.40

0.41

0.41

71.5

1
1

Expected
values 1m
2cao
Contributions
to 2 1m 2cao

1cao

2 = 9.86

(b)

Conclusions: The calculated value of 2 is less than the critical values. There is no
association between the number of bottles sold in different price categories and the
countries of origin.

2 ft

Null hypothesis: The origin of products by country has not changed.


Alternative hypothesis: The origin of products by country has changed.

Degrees of freedom = n-1 = 3


Critical 2 = 7.81/11.34

180

280

170

150

Observed

187.2

257.4

187.2

148.2

Expected

0.28

1.98

1.58

0.02

Contributions to 2

1cao
1cao
1m
1cao

2 = 3.86
Conclusions: The calculated value of 2 is less than the critical values. The origin of
products by country has not changed.

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 13 of 18

2ft

QUESTION 7
The table below gives the revenues and volume of sales for four types of printer sold by a computer
supplies company in 2005 and 2010
2005

2010

Printer

Revenue (000)

Quantity (00)

Revenue (000)

Quantity (00)

Axk 47

700

14

799

17

Mxk16

1848

22

3135

33

Uxb

900

15

624

13

Imf

1520

19

910

14

(a)

Calculate:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)

the Laspeyres base year weighted price index number for 2010 based on 2005
the Paasche current year weighted price index number for 2010 based on 2005
Comment on the difference in your answers in (i) and (ii).
(10 marks)

(b)

Identify and describe five factors involved in creating a general price index such
as the Retail Price Index.
(10 marks)
(Total 20 marks)

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 14 of 18

MODEL ANSWER TO QUESTION 7


Syllabus Topic 2.5: Index numbers
(a)

The prices for year 2005 = 700/14 = 50, 84, 60, 80


The prices for year 2010 = 799/17 = 47, 95, 48, 65

p q
0

=4968

Laspeyres =

pq

1 0

pq
p q

1 0
0

Paasche =

pq
p q

1 1

=5468

p q

0 1

=5522

1m 2 cao

100 =

4703 x 100
4968

= 94.7

1m

5468 x 100
5522

= 99.0

1m

1 1

pq

=4703

1m 2cao

0 1

Comment: Both indices show a reduction in price. The Paasche by less than the
Laspeyres due to the increase in weight for item Mxk16

2x1

(b)

5x2

Prices. How the prices are collected and which prices should be collected?
Choice of goods and services. Items need to be chosen which are representative
of the whole of the consumption for the population
Base year. A starting year for the index has to be chosen which allows for reliable
comparisons in later years. The base year value = 100
Weights. How is the relative importance of the items in the index determined?
This is usually based on the proportion of annual expenditure by consumers on the
representative items.
Choice of index number. How is the price index going to be constructed? Usually
this is based on

WI
W

where W = the weights of the subgroups identified and I is

the value of the index for each subgroup.

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 15 of 18

QUESTION 8
A partnership takes a random sample of the businesses it audits and records the size of the fee it
charges.

(a)

Fee charged 000

Frequency

100 and under 200

23

200 and under 300

36

300 and under 400

58

400 and under 500

48

500 and under 600

25

600 and under 1000

10

Estimate the arithmetic mean and the standard deviation of fee charged.
(9 marks)

The median for the above data is 370.55.


(b)

Estimate the coefficient of skew.


(3 marks)

Three years previously a sample of 150 audit fees showed the arithmetic mean was 340.1 (000) with a
standard deviation of 159.8 (000).
(c)

Test whether the mean fee has changed over the three year period.
(8 marks)
(Total 20 marks)

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 16 of 18

MODEL ANSWER TO QUESTION 8


Syllabus Topic 2.1: Measures of location
Syllabus Topic 2.2: Measures of location
Syllabus Topic 2.3: Measures of skewness
Syllabus Topic 5.1: Procedures for significance
(a)

fx

200

76100

fx
f

(b)

(c)

x x

4598950

fx

33555000

f =1cao
Mp 1cao
fx 1m

f x
1m

= 76100/200 = 380.5

x / fx2

1m 1cao

f x x
f

sd

4598950
= 151.64
200

1m 1ft 1cao

Coefficient of Skew = (3(Mean median)/standard deviation)

1m

= 3(380.5(000)-370.55)/151.64(000) = 0.197

1cao
1 for correct unit
1cao

Null hypothesis: There has been no change in the fee charged over the three year
period
Alternative hypothesis: There has been a change in the fee charged over the three
year period.
Two tail test for large samples Critical z values = 1.96/2.58

x1 x 2
2
1`

2
2

s
s

n1 n2

380.5 340.1
151.64 2 159.8 2

200
150

= 40.4/16.89 = 2.39 (2.4)

Conclusions: Reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level. There has been a change in the
fee charged over the three year period.
Accept the null hypothesis at the 0.01 level. There has not been a change in the fee charged
over the three year period.

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 17 of 18

1cao
1

1m 1ft 1cao

2ft

LEVEL 3

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 18 of 18

Education Development International Plc 2012

EDI
International House
Siskin Parkway East
Middlemarch Business Park
Coventry CV3 4PE
UK
Tel. +44 (0) 8707 202909
Fax. +44 (0) 2476 516505
Email. enquiries@ediplc.com
www.ediplc.com

ASE3009/2/12/MA

Page 19 of 18

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