Nature and Management:

english version
A natural disaster is unforeseen, severe and immediate. Pollution, ozone
depletion in the stratosphere and global warming come in this category.
Natural disasters include cyclones, earthquakes, floods, drought (though
these two are now being increasingly considered man- made disasters) heat
and cold waves, landslides, avalanches, flash floods, severe thunderstorms,
hail, low level wind shears, and microburst.

Earth
Image Courtesy :
go.standard.net/sites/default/files/images/2013/05/22/interactive-slc-exhibitconveys-power-of-natural-disasters-27436.jpg

The destructive potential of any natural hazard is estimated basically by its

spatial extent and severity. Spatial extent upto which the effect of a
disastrous event could be felt may easily be classified into small, medium and
large scales. The phenomenon extending from a few kilometers to a few tens
of kilometers are termed as small scale.

Growing industrialisation and unjustified exploitation of natural resources

have brought our echo system to a verge of non-reversibility and imbalance.
This has led to a threat from a set of natural hazards like pollution, global
warming and ozone depletion on large or global scale.

Management:

The management aspect of disaster may be classified as: (a) early warning
system; (b) rescue operations; (c) relief operations; (d) rehabilitation; and (e)
long range planning. The most important is the early warning systems. Unless
sufficient advance notice is available, evacuation of the population likely to
be affected cannot be undertaken.

There are two aspects of early warning system. One is the availability of an

effective technique to forecast the disaster with its extent and the other is
effective communication of the same to the civil authority responsible for
rescue operations.

In some phenomena, such as cyclones, flood, etc. the time available to

respond to the hazard is of the order of a few days. Hence early warning,
communication, and rescue operations are possible. But, in a few cases like
flash floods, microburst, etc., the response time is of the order of few minutes
only, which calls for a very fast early warning and efficient communication
system.

The human-activity-induced hazards like pollution and global warming have

already started showing their precursors, giving sufficient time to control and
avoid these hazards by long term planning. On the contrary, in earthquakes
no proven methods has yet been evolved to give any prior warning and so
post-hazard mitigation is the only alternative.

Role of Communication For a developing country like India, the role of

communication in disaster mitigation is extremely critical. Vast areas of the
country do not have telephone/ telegraph links. These can neither be
provided in a short span of time available for mitigation nor are there
resources to do so.

We have to depend on existing links, many of which completely break down

during the disaster. The various types available for dissemination of disaster
warning as well as arranging mitigation are: (a) land line links; (b)
underground cable links; (c) wireless links; (d) microwave (LOS); and (e)
satellite links. The only effective communication which is likely to remain
completely or partially unaffected is the satellite link.

This assumes that the earth stations at the two ends are suitably located to
remain unaffected. Further link between the earth station and the affected
area is usually through microwave/ land line, which has its limitation as it
may break down.

The most effective way of dissemination of warning is Disaster Warning

System (DWS) used by the IMD for issue of cyclone bulletin to the coastal
areas. This could be extended to the entire earthquake/ flood prone areas.
Experience has shown that it remains completely unaffected under the
severest cyclonic condition. However, the system is limited to one way
communication only.

For effective two way communication, VHF/UHF links should be established

from every earth station to the affected zone. Use of existing police VHF/UHF
link can be made. The only addition required is the missing link between the
nearest earth station to police headquarters. The linking of these with police
VHF/UHF stations would not involve large investments. This would be a cost
effective and reliable communication system for disaster warning and
mitigation.

Earthquake:

Stated simply, an earthquake is a vehement shake of the earth from natural

causes. Technically an earthquake is a phenomenon of strong vibrations
occurring on the ground, consequent to release of large amount of energy
within a short period of time because of some disturbance in the earths crust
or in the upper part of the mantle.

Causes:

The theory of plate tectonics offers a comprehensive explanation for several

geological phenomena continental drift, mountain building and volcanism,
and, of course, earthquake. According to this theory, when the molten mass
that was the earth billions of years ago cooled down, the crust that was
formed was not one homogenous piece but broken into about a dozen large
plates and several smaller ones with their thickness ranging from 30 km
down to the lithosphere at depth of about 100 km or so.

The plates are in incessant motion, with speeds of about 1 cm to 5 cm a year.

This mobile jigsaw puzzle is what is termed as the continental drift, which
results in the formation of mountains, midoceanic ridges, ocean trenches,
volcanoes and seismic energy buildup. Where two places converge or collide,

a deep trench forms and one plate is deflected downwards into the
asthenosphere which lies below the crust and the lithosphere.

When two thick continential plates collide, rocks on the land are relatively
light and too buoyant to descend into the asthenosphere. The result is a huge
zone of crushing, with rocks and other materials being folded. And this is how
the Himalayas have emerged or, in fact, are continuing to emerge.

As the deformation of the plate margins goes on, energy builds up in rocks in
the form of elastic strain which continues till it exceeds their elastic limits and
the rocks give way. The sudden release of stored elastic energy causes
earthquakes.

Earthquakes in India are caused by the release of elastic strain energy

created and replenished by the stresses from the collision between the Indian
plate and the Eurasian plate. The most intense earthquakes occur on the
boundaries of the Indian plate to the east, north and west.

In the Indian plate, faults are created when this rubs against the Eurasian
plate. (When an earthquake occurs along a fault line within the plate, it is
called an intra-plate earthquake. The majority of the earthquakes occur along
plate boundaries.)

Earthquakes are also caused by volcanic activity. Construction of large water

reservoirs may also cause earthquakesthese are called reservoir-induced
earthquakes.

Earthquake Zones:

The movement of the plates and occurrence of earthquakes seem to be

concentrated in certain areas or zones of the earth.

Based on intensity and frequency of occurrence, world map is divided into the

following earthquake zones or belts

Circum-Pacific Belt Surrounds the Pacific Ocean and accounts for more than
three-fourths of the worlds earthquakes. Sometimes called the Ring of Fire,
its epicentre are the coastal margins of North and South America and East
Asia. These represent the eastern and western margins of the Pacific Ocean
respectively. The occurrence of maximum number of earthquakes in this
region is due to four ideal conditions

(i) Junction of continental and oceanic margins

(ii) Zone of young folded mountains

(iii) Zone of active volcanoes

(iv) Subduction zone of destructive or convergent plate boundaries

Mid-Continental Belt:

Also called the Mediterranean Belt or Alpine-Himalayan Belt, it accounts for

about 21 per cent of the total seismic shocks. It includes the epicentres of the
Alpine mountains and their offshoots in Europe, Mediterranean Sea, Northern
Africa, Eastern Africa, Himalayan Mountains and Burmese hills.

Mid-Atlantic Ridge Belt:

The epicentres of this region are along the mid-Atlantic Ridge and the islands
near the ridge. This belt represents the zone of moderate and shallow focus
earthquakesthe reason for this being the creation of transform faults and
fractures because of splitting of plates followed by their movement in the
opposite direction.

Based on seismic data and different geological and geophysical parameters,

the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) had initially divided the country into five
seismic zones. In 2003, however, BIS redefined the seismic map of India by
merging zones I and II.

Thus India has four such zones nowII, III, IV and V. There is thus no part of
the country that can be termed earthquake free. Of the five seismic zones,
zone V is the most active region and zone I shows least seismic activity.

The entire north-eastern region falls in zone V. Besides the North- East, zone
V includes parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand,
Rann of Kachch in Gujarat, northern Bihar and the Andaman and Nicobar
islands. One of the reasons for this region being prone to earthquake is the
presence of the young-fold Himalayan Mountains here which have frequent
tectonic movements.

Zone IV which is the next most active region of seismic activity covers Sikkim,
Delhi, remaining parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar,
northern parts of Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, parts of Gujarat and small
portions of Maharashtra near the west coast.

Zone III comprises Kerala, Goa, Lakshadweep, remaining parts of Uttar

Pradesh and West Bengal, parts of Punjab, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya
Pradesh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The remaining states with
lesser known activity fall in zone II.

The states of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh
and Bihar, the Bihar-Nepal border, the Rann of Katchh in Gujarat and the
Andaman Islands fall into the unstable belt which stretches right across the
globe.

The high seismicity of the Indian subcontinent arises from the tectonic
disturbances associated with the northward movement of the Indian plate,
which is underthrasting the Eurasian plate.

The Himalayan region has been the site for great earthquakes of the world of
magnitude greater than 8.0. This highly seismic belt is a branch of one of the
three major seismic belts of the world called the Alpide-Himalayan Belt. The
high seismicity region extends from Hindukush in the west to Sadiya in the
northeast which further extends down to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Different institutions including the Indian Meteorogical Department and the

Indian School of Mines, have after a study of mechanics of several
earthquakes in the north- eastern region found that the thrust faulting was
generally indicated along with Dawki fault and the Indo-Burma border.

Dr. H. Teiedemann, a member of the Earthquake Engineering Research

Institute of the Seismological Society of America, said in 1985 that the
increased interplay activity near the north-eastern boundary in the Indian
plate coupled with thrusting of the Himalayan Burmese sector pointed to the
danger of earthquakes in the region.

Tracking an earthquake:

There are three kinds of seismic waves. Waves that move the fastest are
called primary, or P, waves. These waves, like sound waves, travel
longitudinally by alternate compression and expansion of the medium, like
the movement of the bellows of an accordion. Somewhat slower are the
secondary, or S, waves which propagate transversely in the form of snakelike
wriggles at right angle to the directions of travel.

These cannot travel through liquids or gases. The slowest earthquake waves
are the long, or L, waves which cause the most extensive damage as they
move along the earths surface. Incidentally, L waves on sea floor cause sea
waves on the surface called tsunamis. They rise to 100 feet or more and
cause damage when they break on habitated coasts.

All three kinds can be detected and recorded by sensitive instruments called
seismographs. A seismograph is usually anchored to the ground and carries a

hinged or suspended mass that is set into oscillation by ground movement

during an earthquake.

The instrument can record both horizontal and vertical ground movement in
the form of wavy lines on paper or film. From the record, called a
seismogram, it is possible to find out how strong the quake was, where it
began and how long it lasted.

The location of the epicentre of a quake is determined from the time of arrival
of the P and S waves at the seismographic station. Since P waves travel at a
speed of about 8 km per second and S waves at 5 km per second, it is
possible to compute the distance of their origin from the seismic record. If the
distance from three stations are computed, the exact location can be pin
pointed. A circle of appropriate radius is drawn around each station. The
epicentre lies where the circles intersect.

Magnitude and intensity are the two ways in which a quakes strength is
generally expressed. The magnitude is a measure that depends on the
seismic energy radiated by the quake as recorded on seismographs.

The intensity, in turn, is a measure that depends on the damage caused by

the quake. It does not have a mathematical basis but is based on observed
effects.

A quakes magnitude is usually measured in terms of the Richter scale.

Devised by the American seismologist, Charles Francis Richter, in 1932, the
Richter scale is not a physical device but a logarithmic scale based on
recordings of seismographs, instruments which automatically detect and
record the intensity, direction and duration of a movement on the ground.

The scale starts at one and has no upper limit. Since it is a logarithmic scale,
each unit is 10 times greater than the previous one; in other words, an
increase of one unit (whole number) on the Richter scale signifies a 10-fold
jump in the quakes size (or 31 times more energy released).

On this scale, the smallest quake felt by humans is about 3.0, and the
smallest quake capable of causing damage is about 4.5. The strongest quake
ever recorded had a magnitude of 8.9. Richter magnitude effects are confined
to the vicinity of the epicentre.

The Richter scale has been immensely modified and upgraded since it was
introduced. It remains the most widely known and used scale for measuring
the magnitude of an earthquake.

For measurement of the intensity of an earthquake, the Modified Mercalli

Intensity Scale is used. The 12-point Mercalli scale measures the intensity of
shaking during an earthquake and is assessed by inspecting the damage and
interviewing survivors of the earthquake. As such, it is extremely subjective.

Furthermore, because the intensity of shaking varies from one place to

another during an earthquake, different Mercalli ratings can be given for the
same earthquake. Unlike the Mercalli scale, the Richter scale measures the
magnitude of an earthquake at its epicentre.

What are aftershocks?

Aftershocks are earthquakes that often occur during the days and months
that follow some larger quake. Aftershocks occur in the same general region
as the main shock and are believed to be the result of minor readjustment of
stress at place in the fault zones. Generally, major quakes are followed by a
larger number of aftershocks, decreasing in frequency with time.

Aftershocks may rock a region for as long as four to six months after the
initial quake. However, strong ones last only a few days. Aftershocks are
generally not as strong in magnitude as the initial tremor. But a small chance
of them being stronger in magnitude cannot be ruled out, in which case the
first and aftershocks become known as foreshocks.

How frequently do quakes occur?

Earthquakes occur every day around the world. Each day there are about
1,000 very small earthquakes measuring 1 to 2 on the Richter scale.
Approximately, there is one every 87 seconds. Annually, on an average, there
are 800 quakes capable of causing damage with a magnitude of 5-5.9, and 18
major ones with a magnitude of 7 or more.

Prediction of earthquakes:

The science of earthquake prediction is at its infancy at present, even though

several intensive attempts in this direction have been going on for the last
two to three decades in the USA, Russia, Japan, China and India. In spite of
some breakthroughs the notable example being the prediction of the 1975
Haicheng earthquake of China (7.3M)there is yet no reliable system to
predict an earthquake. For, just a year later in 1976, the seismologists could
not predict the Tangshan earthquake.

To predict earthquakes one has to first fully understand the underlying

dynamics. For example, even though it is known that this intense seismic
activity is a result of the north-northeastern movement and under thrusting of
the Indian plate, it is not known what fraction of the strain energy is being
released by earthquakes along the belt.

Aside from such dynamic imputs, an empirical basis of prediction can be

founded by recognising, monitoring and interpreting observable and
decipherable precursory phenomena. Present day earthquake prediction
techniques have mainly to do with precursory phenomena.

The parameters that are normally looked at include electrical resistivities,

geomagnetic properties, variation in the ratio of compressional to shear wave
velocities, etc. Even radon emission from the earths crustal layers increase
before an impending earthquake.

One approach is to predict earthquakes on the basis of changes believed or

known to precede an earthquake. Such earthquake precursors include

abnormal tilting of ground, change in strain in rock, dilatancy of rocks which

could be measured by a change in velocities, ground and water levels, sharp
changes in pressure, and unusual lights in the sky.

The behaviour of some animals is also believed to undergo a distinct change

prior to an earthquake. Some lower creatures are perhaps more sensitive to
sound and vibrations than humans; or endowed with what one may call
prescience. Another approach is to estimate the probabilistic occurrence of an
earthquake statistically by relating the past occurrences to weather
conditions, volcanic activity and tidal forces.

There have been some notable Indian efforts too in developing prediction
models in the Himalayan-belt context. One relates to the so- called seismic
gaps, which postulates that great earthquakes rupture the Himalayan arc
whose total length is about 1700 km. Of this, about 1400 km is supposed to
have been ruptured releasing part of the pent-up energy during the last four
great earthquakes, leaving a portion of about 300 km to be broken in a
future great earthquake.

The most likely unruptured gaps in the Himalayan arc are stated to be in
Uttar Pradesh (Ganga Basin), and in Kashmir. Proponents of this model have
postulated that the entire Himalayan detachment would rupture in 180-240
years, the rupture being caused by a 8.0 M plus earthquake. This hypothesis
forms the basis for the apprehension of the Tehri dam being subjected to
earthquakes of this magnitude.

Some scientists have noted that certain cycles of low and high seismicity
characterise the Alpide belt. For example, after an extremely active cycle
from 1934 to 1951, with 14 earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.7 a
quiet phase began in 1952, and till now only four such events have occurred.

In the world scientific community, the latest in earthquake prediction

techniques have come from the United States. One method developed by the
Americans involves the use of laser beams. These beams are shot from an
observatory to a geostationary satellite in space.

On hitting the satellite, the waves are reflected back to the observatory. A
substantial difference in the time taken by the laser beams to travel between
the two points is an indication of considerable tectonic plate movement, and
perhaps an imminent earthquake.

A recent study of Indonesian reefs showed that corals record cyclical

environmental events and could predict a massive earthquake in the eastern
Indian Ocean within the next 20 years. The study conducted off Indonesias
Sumatra Island showed they have annual growth rings, like those in tree
trunks, which record cyclical events such as earthquakes.

Scientists said the earthquake could be similar to the magnitude 9.15

earthquake which sparked the devastating 2004 tsunami and left more than
two lakh people either dead or missing across Asia.

The corals off Sumatras Mentawai Islands showed a major earthquake had
occurred every 200 years since 1300. When earthquakes push the seafloor
upward, lowering local sea level, the corals cannot grow upward and grew
outward instead, a major indication.

An area off Sumatra that has been the source of disastrous earthquakes, still
carries a lot of pent-up pressure that could result in another strong quake,
noted the study reported in the journal Nature.

It is not, however, clear as of now whether a precise earthquake prediction

and warning system can be developed and put to any effective use.

Damage caused by an earthquake:

The greatest damage in an earthquake is caused by the destruction of

buildings and resultant loss of life and property and destruction of
infrastructure.

The earthquakes having the same magnitude on the Richter scale may vary
in damage from place to place. The extent of damage that an earthquake can
cause may depend on more than one factor. The depth of the focus may be
one factor. Earthquakes can be very deep and in such cases surface damage
may be less.

The extent of damage also depends on how populated and developed an area
is. A great earthquake in an uninhabited or virtually uninhabited area will be
less damaging than a large earthquake in a highly populated area.

The National Buildings Organisation of India lists weaknesses in burnt brick

buildings as follows:

i. Poor strength of material in tension-and shear.

ii. Toothed joint causing a vertical plane of weakness between perpendicular

walls.

iii. Large openings placed too close to the corners. Long rooms having long
walls unsupported by cross-walls.

iv. Unsymmetrical plan, or with too many projections.

v. Use of heavy roofs having flexibility in plan.

vi. Use of light roofs with little binding effects on walls.

How to minimise damage?

Some measures to prevent building collapse during the earthquake are:

symmetry and rectangularity of building; symmetry in locating openings;

simplicity in elevation or avoidance of ornamentation; intersecting internal
walls so as to divide the total plan in square enclosures of not more than 6 m
wide; use of steel or wooden dowels going into walls meeting at corners
(shear walls) or T-junctions to provide effective bonding; use of bond beam or
band of reinforced concrete at lintel levels of openings and serving as lintel
too. The last one is the one feature that is most effective in ensuring the
integrity of enclosures like a rigid box.

For masonry construction, the BIS has specified that materials to be used
should be well-burnt bricks and not sun-dried bricks. The use of arches to
span over openings is a source of weakness and should be avoided unless
steel ties are provided.

Scientists have suggested designing buildings to counter quake movement by

shifting the centre of gravity with the help of a steel weight placed on the top
of the buildings.

In plain areas or towns which are located on a river bank, or situated on a

thick layer of alluvial soil (like Ahmedabad), the deep piles technology may
be useful. In this technique, thick, columns of concrete and steel are inserted
10-30 metre deep into the soil beneath the regular foundation. In case of
earthquakes, these pillars provide extra strength and prevent the buildings
from collapsing.

In the base isolation technique, heavy blocks of rubber and steel are put
between the foundation and the building. During a quake, the rubber absorbs
the shocks.

In high-rises, enlarged structures on the top floors should be avoided.

Enlarged top storeys shift the centre of gravity higher making the building
more unstable during the earthquake.

Soft first storeys should be avoided. In cities, many buildings stand on

columns. The ground floor is generally used for parking and walls start from
the first floor. These buildings collapse quickly during an earthquake.

Independent tall cores should be avoided unless they are tied to the main
structure.

Cyclones:

Tropical cyclones, the most destructive of natures phenomena, are known to

form over all tropical oceans except over the South Atlantic and the South
Pacific, east of about 140 W. An intense low pressure area in the atmosphere
is formed before/after the monsoon. It is associated with fierce wind and
heavy rainfall. Horizontally it extends from 500 to 1000 km and vertically
from the surface to about 14 km.

Severe tropical cyclones cause considerable damage to property and

agricultural crops. The principal dangers posed are: (a) fierce winds; (b)
torrential rains and associated flooding; and (c) high storm tides (combined
effect of storm surge and tides). Rainfall up to 20 to 30 cm a day is common.

The highest ever sustained winds recorded in the case of tropical cyclones
are 317 kmph. Storm surge (rise of sea level) of four metres are common. The
highest sea level elevation in the world due to continued effect of storm
surge and astronomical high tide occurred in 1876 near Bakerganj, where the
sea level rose by about 12 metres above the mean sea level on that occasion.

Tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal occur in two district seasons, the
pre-monsoon months of April-May and the post-monsoon months of OctoberNovember. On an average, in fact, almost half a dozen tropical cyclones form
in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea every year, out of which two or
three may be severe.

Out of these, the stormiest months are May-June, October and November.
Compared to the pre- monsoon season of May, June, when severe storms are
rare, the months of October and November are known for severe cyclones.
The IMD has published the tracks of the cyclones since 1891 and updates
them every year in its quarterly scientific journal, Mausam.

As 90 per cent of the deaths in severe cyclones all over the world occur in
high storm surges accompanying them, the only feasible method to save the
lives of human beings and animals is to evacuate them to safe inland cyclone
shelters as early as possible after the receipt of advance cyclone warnings
from the IMD. The evacuation of people is difficult in flat coastal districts as in
Bangladesh where the tides of six to 10 metres above the sea level
submerges offshore islands and travels inland for considerable distances.

Tropical cyclones are by nature devastating mainly because of their place of

birth, namely, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This is a narrow
belt at the equator, where the trade winds of the two hemispheres meet.

It is a region of high radiation energy which supplies the necessary heat for
the vaporisation of sea water into the air. This moist unstable air rises,
generates convective clouds and leads to an atmospheric disturbance with a
fall in surface atmospheric pressure. This causes a convergence of
surrounding air towards this region of low pressure.

The converging mass of air gains a rotary motion because of what is known
as the Coriolis force caused by the rotation of the Earth. However, under
favourable circumstances, such as high sea-surface temperatures, this low
pressure area can get accentuated.

The convective instability builds up into an organised system with high-speed

winds circulating around the low pressure interior. The net result is a well
formed cyclone consisting of a central region of light winds known as the
eye. The eye has an average radius of 20 to 30 km. in fact, in a mature
storm like in Bangladesh. It can even be as much as 50 km.

Given the existing scientific knowledge about cyclones, it is not yet possible
to physically dissipate the buildup of a massive cyclone. Cures are generally
worse than the disease. For example, while seeding by sodium iodide crystals
has been attempted in some parts of the world with marginal successa
more effective prescription proposed sometimes is a nuclear explosion.
Obviously, that would be trading one disaster for an even greater one.

Accepted technology, therefore, only provides the capability to detect and

track cyclones with sophisticated satellite imagery and ground- based radar
systems. But here too the limitations are glaring. Atmospheric science, for
example, is not yet in a position to unambiguously predict the motion and
behaviour of a cyclone more than 24 hours ahead of its arrival. So all that is
possible in that brief span is to warn the vulnerable sections of the population
of the imminent danger and adopt measures to move them to safer cyclone
withstanding structures.

The frequency, intensity and coastal impact of cyclones varies from region to
region. Interestingly, the frequency of tropical cyclones is the least in the
north Indian Ocean regions of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea; they
are also of moderate intensities. But the cyclones are deadliest when they
cross the coast bordering North Bay of Bengal (coastal areas of Orissa, West
Bengal and Bangladesh).

This is mainly due to storm surges (tidal waves) that occur in this region
inundating the coastal areas. Over the last two-and-a-half centuries, 17 of the
22 severe tropical cycloneseach causing loss of more than 10,000 human
livestook place in the North Bay of Bengal. While gales and strong winds, as
well as torrential rain, that usually accompany a cyclone can cause sufficient
havoc to property and agriculture, loss of human life and cattle is mainly due
to storm surges.

If the terrain is shallow and shaped like a funnel, like that of Bangladesh
much of the exposed land is just about at the mean sea level or even less
storm surges get enormously amplified. Coastal inundation due to a
combination of high tide and storm surge can cause the worst disaster.

India has an efficient cyclone warning system. Tropical cyclones are tracked
with the help of (i) regular observation from weather network of surface and
upper air observation stations, (ii) ships report, (iii) cyclone detection radars,
(iv) satellites, and (v) reports from commercial aircraft.

Ships of merchant fleet have meteorological instruments for taking

observations at sea. A network of cyclone detection radars have been set up

along the coast at Kolkata, Paradip, Visakhapatnam, Machilipatnam, Chennai,
Karaikal, Kochi, Goa, Mumbai and Bhuj. The range of these radars is 400 km.
When the cyclone is beyond the range of coastal radars, its intensity and
movement is monitored with weather satellites.

Warnings are issued by the area cyclone warning centres located at Kolkata,
Chennai and Mumbai, and cyclone warning centres at Bhubaneswar,
Visakhapatnam and Ahmedabad.

IMD has developed a system known as Disaster Warning System (DWS) to

transmit cyclone warning bulletins through INSAT-DWS to the recipients. This
consists of the following elements:

(i) The cyclone warning centre for originating the area code of the districts
and disaster warning message;

(ii) The earth station located near the cyclone warning centre with uplink
facility in C-band and suitable communication links;

(iii) The C/S band transponder on board INSAT; and

(iv) The INSAT-DWS receivers located in cyclone prone areas.

Typically, in a cyclone the maximum devastative effects are within about 100
km from the centre and on the right of the storm track where all the islands
lie. Evacuating the population just 24 hours before would require an army of
high speed boats, an unfeasible proposition for a resourcepoor country. The
obvious solution, therefore, would be to provide a large number of storm
shelters in the particularly vulnerable areas.

Floods:

So inured are we to the annual phenomena of floods in season, that one more
village practically washed away by a flash flood causes no more than a ripple.
But for the people there it is a traumatic experience.

In most cases flooding is caused by a river over-spilling its banks due to (a)
excessive precipitation, (b) obstruction in the river bed, (c) inadequate
waterways at rail/road crossings, (d) drainage congestion, and (e) change in
river course.

Flood forecasting in India commenced in 1958 with the establishment of a

unit in Central Water Commission (CWC). Earlier, it used to be done by a
conventional methodgauge to gauge or discharge correlation by which
future gauges at forecast points are estimated on the basis of gauge
discharge observed at some upstream station. Gradually, other parameters
like precipitation, etc. were incorporated. Nowadays, computer-based
hydrological models are being used for inflow and flood forecasting.

The basic information required for flood forecasting is rainfall data of the
catchment area of the river. Due to poor communication and inaccessibility,
complete information is not always available. However, with sophisticated
high-powered S-band radars, it is now possible to estimate the rainfall in an
area of up to 200 km around the radar site.

This system is used extensively in the US for estimating the rainfall potential
in the catchment areas of major rivers an issue of flood forecast warning. The
use of radar for the precipitation estimate is based on the principle that the
amount of echo return from a volume of cloud depends on the number and
size of hydrometeros in it. The empirical relationship between the echo return
and the rainfall rates has been developed for various types of rain.

Using fast switching digital circuits, the return video is digitised, integrated,
normalised and contoured into standard six or seven rainfall rates.
Observations taken every ten minutes can be cumulatively added and
averaged to give 24-hour rainfall prediction over the region. Through
appropriate modes, the information from a number of radar sites can be sent

to a central office where powerful computers process the data and yield the
overall rainfall potential of the weather system.

The advantage of using radars for hydrological work lies in the fact that the
information over the inaccessible region is available without actual human
intervention. Of course, there are many assumptions which do not always
hold good, thereby introducing large errors in the result.

But with suitable calibration with actual gauge measurements correction

factors could be applied. Another advantage of the radar measurement that it
puts the time for the collection of rainfall data thereby increasing the lead
time available for rescue/evacuation efforts in the region likely to be affected.

There are two ways to reduce flood damagestructural and nonstructural

measures. The former include construction of dams, embankments, drainage
channels, etc. This has not helped much as population has moved into areas
where flooding used to occur and has been controlled due to structure.
Whenever flooding level is higher than what the structure can hold, the result
is devastating.

The non-structural approach calls for removing populations from the flood
plains. Another important aspect is to reduce the silting of rivers.
Afforestation in the catchment areas, along the river banks, helps in
maintaining the effective river volume.

The National Flood Commission (NFC) was set up specifically to deal with the
problem of floods. But it is evident that, over the last four decades or so,
flood control efforts have proved counter-productive because they have not
included adequate planning for conservation of watersheds.

As a result the increasing siltation of rivers is accelerating their rate of flow in

flood, eventually forcing even well built embankments to give way. As is well
known, embankments increase the force of the river by channelling it over a
narrow area instead of permitting it to spread. The danger of relying too
heavily on the system of embankments for flood control has been well
documented.

Apart from the depletion in forest cover, overgrazing contributes greatly to

soil loss in the catchment areas. Even in the mountainous areas, where
efforts have been made to plant trees on steep slopes to reduce the soil loss
during rains, mountain goats have impeded the process of regeneration.
Cattle and goats also destroy the plant cover that springs up after the rain
which is crucial for holding down the soil.

Human activity is yet another factor. Quarrying, road construction, and other
building activity in sensitive catchment areas add to the soil loss.

As a result of all these factors, the silt load of many rivers has increased
greatly. The siltation level of dams, which has generally been underestimated
at the time of construction has had to be revised by 50 to 400 per cent in
some cases. Siltation reduces the capacity of reservoirs.

Consequently in order to save the dam, unscheduled and panic releases of

water are resorted to often without giving adequate warning to people
downstream who live in the path of the released water. Thus ironically dams
built partly to assist in flood control, are today contributing to the devastation
caused by floods.

The phenomenon that really ought to engage the minds of planners is how
and why the flood-prone area in the country is increasing each year. Even
areas which have never known floods in the past are now affected. The NFC
estimates that 40 million hectares are flood-prone of which 32 million
hectares can be protected.

Although flood management is a state subject, the Union government

provides Central assistance to the flood-prone states for a few specified
schemes, which are technical and promotional in nature.

Some such Centrally-sponsored schemes are: critical anti-erosion works in

Ganga basin states, critical anti-erosion works in coastal and other than
Ganga basin states, maintenance of flood protection works of Kosi and

Gandak projects, etc. The Central government provides special assistance to

the Border States and north eastern states for taking up some special priority
works.

The Central Water Commission is engaged in flood forecasting on inter-state

river basins through 134 river-level forecasting and 25 inflow forecasting
stations on major dams/barrages throughout the country.

Tsunami:

A tsunami is a series of travelling ocean waves which are set off by geological
disturbances near the floor of the ocean. The waves of very, very long
wavelengths and period rush across the ocean and increase their momentum
over a stretch of thousands of kilometers. Some tsunamis may appear as a
tide but they are not tidal waves in reality.

While tides are caused by gravitational influences of the moon, sun and the
planets, tsunamis are seismic sea waves. That is, they are related to an
earthquake- related mechanism of generation. Tsunamis are usually a result
of earthquakes, but may be at times caused by landslides or volcanic
eruption or, very rarely, a large meteorite impact on the ocean.

The tsunami can be understood at the basic level by looking at the series of
concentric ripples formed in a lake when a stone is thrown into it. A tsunami
is like those ripples but caused by a disturbance much greater in magnitude.

Tsunamis are shallow-water waves different from the wind-generated waves

which usually have a period of five to twenty seconds which refers to the time
between two successional waves of about 100 to 200 metres. Tsunamis
behave as shallow-water waves because of their long wavelengths.

They have a period in the range of ten minutes to two hours and a
wavelength exceeding 500 km. The rate of energy loss of a wave is inversely
related to its wavelength. So tsunamis lose little energy as they propagate as

they have a very large wavelength. So they will travel at high speeds in deep
waters and travel great distances as well losing little energy.

A tsunami that occurs 1000 metres deep in water has a speed of 356 km per
hour. At 6000 m, it travels at 873 Ion per hour. It travels at different speeds in
water: it travels slow in water that is shallow and fast in deep water. As an
average ocean depth of 5000 m is assumed, one talks of tsunamis as having
an average speed of about 750 km per hour.

Propagation of Tsunamis:

The long gravity tsunami waves are caused by two interacting processes.
There is the slope of the sea surface which creates a horizontal pressure
force. Then there is the piling up or lowering of sea surface as water moves in
varying speeds in the direction that the wave form is moving.

These processes together create propagating waves. A tsunami can be

caused by any disturbance that displaces a large water mass from its
equilibrium position. An undersea earthquake causes buckling of the sea
floor, something that occurs at subduction zones, places where drifting plates
that constitute the outer shell of the earth converge and the heavier oceanic
plate dips below the lighter continents.

As a plate plunges into the interior of the earth it gets stuck against the edge
of a continental plate for a while, when stresses build up, then the locked
zone gives way. Parts of the ocean floor then snap upward and other areas
sink downward. In the instant after the quake, the sea surface shape
resembles the contours of the seafloor.

But then gravity acts to return the sea surface to its original shape. The
ripples then race outward and a tsunami is caused. Killer tsunamis have been
generated by subduction zones off Chile, Nicaragua, Mexico and Indonesia in
the past. There were 17 tsunamis in the Pacific from 1992 to 1996 which
resulted in 1,700 deaths.

During a submarine landslide, the equilibrium sea-level is altered by

sediment moving along the floor of the sea. Gravitational forces then
propagate a tsunami. Again, a marine volcanic eruption can generate an
impulsive force that displaces the water column and gives birth to a tsunami.
Above water landslides and objects in space are capable of disturbing the
water when the falling debris, like meteorites, displace the water from its
equilibrium position.

As a tsunami leaves deep waters and propagates into the shallow waters, it
transforms. This is because as the depth of the water decreases, the speed of
the tsunami reduces. But the change of total energy of the tsunami remains
constant. With decrease in speed, height of the tsunami wave grows. A
tsunami which was imperceptible in deep water may grow to many metres
high and this is called the shoaling effect.

Tsunami attacks can come in different forms depending upon the geometry of
the seafloor warping that first caused the waves. Sometimes, the sea seems
to at first draw a breath but then this withdrawal is followed by arrival of the
crest of a tsunami wave. Tsunamis have been known to occur suddenly
without warning.

The water level on the shore rises to many metres: more than 15 m for
tsunamis originating at a distance and over 30 metres for tsunamis that
originate near the earthquakes epicentre. Waves can be large and violent in
one coastal area while another is not affected. Areas can be flooded inland to
305 metres or more; when tsunami waves retreat, they carry things and
people out to sea. Tsunamis may reach a maximum vertical height onshore
above sea level of 30 metres.

The size of the tsunami waves is determined by the quantum of deformation

of the sea floor. Greater the vertical displacement, greater will be the wave
size. For tsunamis to occur, earthquakes must happen underneath or near the
ocean. They must be large and create movements in the ocean floor. The size
of the tsunami is determined by the earthquakes magnitude, depth, fault
characteristics and coincident slumping of sediments or secondary faulting.

Occurrence:

Subduction zones off Chile, Nicaragua, Mexico and Indonesia have created
killer tsunamis. The Pacific among the oceans has witnessed most number of
tsunamis (over 790 since 1990).

One of the deadliest tsunamis occurred in Asia on December 26, 2005.

Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Bangladesh and
Somalia bore the brunt of the disaster that killed over 55,000 people.

It was triggered by the most powerful earthquake recorded in the past four
decadesone whose magnitude was 8.9 on the Richter scale. A tsunami with
a magnitude 9.2 temblor struck Alaska in 1964.

Geographical Changes Caused by Tsunamis:

Tsunamis and earthquakes can cause changes in geography. The December

26 earthquake and tsunami shifted the North Pole by 2.5 cm in the direction
of 145 degrees East longitude and reduced the length of the day by 2.68
microseconds. This in turn affected the velocity of earths rotation and the
Coriolis force which plays a strong role in weather patterns.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands may have moved by about 1.25 m owing
to the impact of the colossal earthquake and the tsunami.

Warning Systems:

The warning of an oncoming tsunami cannot be obtained by merely detecting

an earthquake in the seas; it involves a number of complex steps which have
to be completed in a systematic and quick fashion. It was in 1965, that the
international warning system was started.

It is administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA). The member states of the NOAA include the major Pacific Rim
countries in North America, Asia and South America, Pacific Islands, Australia
and New Zealand. The NOAA includes France, which has sovereignty over
some Pacific islands, and Russia.

Computer systems at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) in Hawaii

monitor data from seismic stations in the USA and elsewhere warning is
issued when an earthquake is shallow, located under the sea or close to it
and has a magnitude that is more than a pre-determined threshold.

The NOAA has developed the Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of
Tsunamis (DART) gauge. Each gauge has a very sensitive pressure recorder
on the sea floor in which can detect the change in the height of the ocean it
even if it is by just one cm. The data is transmitted acoustically to a surface
buoy which then relays it over satellite to the warning centre. There are
seven DART gauges deployed at present and four more are being planned.

PTWC has improved its performance rapidly as high-quality seismic data has
been made available to it. The time it needed to issue a warning has fallen
from up to 90 minutes some six years ago to 25 minutes or even less today.

The Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) constitutes computer models

developed by the NOAA which can simulate the generation of a tsunami and
its inundation of dry land.

The Indian Ocean is not prone to tsunamis. Only two have occurred in this
ocean including one on December 26, 2004. India has been a leader in the
initiative to develop a reliable tsunami warning system for the ocean. It has
decided to set up a sophisticated system for detecting deep sea movements
and develop a network with the countries in the Indian Ocean region for
sharing information on tsunamis.

The Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting System (DOARS) will be set up
six kilometers deep under the sea. It will have pressure sensors to detect the
water movement. The sensors will be linked to the satellite that will relay
information to the earth station. Some 6-12 more sensors would be installed

later and the data buoys would be linked to the system that would record
changes in the water level.

The Indian government plans to set up a network with Indonesia, Myanmar

and Thailand which would calculate the magnitude and intensity of tsunamis
from the data available to it. DART-type gauges will be installed by the
government and it will join 26 countries in a network that warn each other
about tsunamis.

A state-of-the-art National Tsunami Early Warning Centre, which has the

capability to detect earthquakes of more than 6 magnitude in the Indian
Ocean was inaugurated in 2007 in India. Set up by the Ministry of Earth
Sciences in the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services
(INCOIS), the 125-crore tsunami warning system would take 30 minutes to
analyse the seismic data following an earthquake. The system comprises a
real-time network of seismic stations, bottom pressure recorders (BPRs), and
30 tide gauges to detect tsunamigenic earthquakes and monitor tsunamis.

Disaster Management and Planning:

Many regions in India are highly vulnerable to natural and other disasters on
account of geological conditions. Disaster management has therefore
emerged as a high priority. Going beyond the historical focus on relief and
rehabilitation after the catastrophe, there is a need to look ahead and plan for
disaster preparedness and mitigation. So, the development process needs to
be sensitive towards disaster prevention, preparedness as well as mitigation
to ensure that periodic shocks to development efforts are minimised.

About 60 per cent of the landmass in India is susceptible to earthquakes and

over 8 per cent is prone to floods. Of the nearly 7,500 km long coastline,
more than 5,500 km is prone to cyclones. Around 68 per cent area is also
susceptible to drought. All this entails huge economic losses and causes
developmental setbacks.

However, Indias commitment to mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into

the process of development planning at all levels so as to achieve sustainable

development is yet to be carried forward across sectors through actionable

programmes for achieving the desired result.

Tenth Five Year Plan Strategy and Approach:

The Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-07) recognised disaster management as a

development issue for the first time. It was prepared in the backdrop of the
Orissa super cyclone (1999) and the massive Gujarat earthquake (2001).
Later the Tsunami in the Indian Ocean which devastated coastal communities
in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Puducherry and Andaman in 2004
became the tipping point for initiating a series of steps by the government.
India became one of the first countries to declare a national commitment to
set up appropriate institutional mechanisms for more effective disaster
management at the national, state and district levels. The Disaster
Management Bill was subsequently adopted unanimously.

The Plan devoted a separate article to disaster management and made a

number of important prescriptions to mainstream disaster risk reduction into
the process of development. The prescriptions were broadly divided into
three categories:

I. Policy guidelines at macro level to inform and guide the preparation and
implementation of development plans-across sectors.

II. Operational guidelines for integrating disaster management practices into

development plans and programmes, and

III. Specific developmental schemes for prevention and mitigation of

disasters.

The significant initiatives on disaster management taken during the Plan

period included the following:

i. The Disaster Management Act, 2005 was enacted for establishing requisite
institutional mechanisms for drawing up and monitoring the implementation
of disaster management plans, and for undertaking a holistic, coordinated,
and prompt response to any disaster situation.

ii. Setting up of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) as an

apex body responsible for laying down of policies, plans and guidelines on
disaster management so as to ensure timely and effective response to
disasters.

iii. The guidelines on management of earthquake, chemical disasters, and

chemical (industrial) disasters were finalised during the Plan period.

iv. Arunachal Pradesh, Goa, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Mizoram,

Puducherry, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh have constituted State Disaster
Management Authorities (SDMAs). The other states and UTs are in the
process of constituting the same.

v. An eight battalion-strong National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) was set

up comprising 144 specialised response teams on various types of disasters
of which around 72 are for nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) disasters.

vi. Revamping of the civil defence set-up to strengthen local efforts for
disaster preparedness and effective response. Fire services also strengthened
and modernised to a multi-hazard response force.

vii. A comprehensive Human Resource Plan for disaster management was

developed.

viii. Inclusion of disaster management in the curriculum of middle and

secondary school education. The subject has also been included in the postinduction and in-service training of civil and police officers. Modules have also
been identified to include disaster management aspects in the course
curriculum for engineering, architecture, and medical degrees.

ix. The National Institute for Disaster Management (NIDM) was established as
the apex training institute for disaster management in India.

x. Model-building by-laws for town and country planning legislations, land use
zonation, development control legislations were finalised.

xi. The Bureau of Indian Standards issued building codes for construction of
different types of buildings in different seismic zones in India. The National
Building Code was also revised, taking into consideration the natural hazards
and risks of various regions of India.

xii. Implementation of the National Programme for Capacity Building of

Engineers in Earthquake Risk Management to train 10,000 engineers and
10,000 architects on safe construction techniques and architectural practices.

xiii. A web-enabled centralised inventory of resources was developed to

minimise response time in emergencies. Over 1, 10,000 records from 600
districts have already been uploaded.

xiv. Sale construction practices and dos and donts for various hazards
were also disseminated for creating public awareness.

Eleventh Plan Strategies and Initiatives:

The Eleventh Plan (2008-2013) aims at consolidating the entire process of

disaster management by giving impetus to projects and programmes that
develop and nurture the culture of safety and integration of disaster
prevention and mitigation into the development process. To assist the
Planning Commission in appraisal of projects, broad and generic guidelines
which are not disaster or theme specific have to be adopted.

Conceptualisation of hazard scenarios and associated vulnerability and risk

assessments in a given situation will necessarily have to depend on available
maps, master plans and building and land use regulations, National Building
Code of India, and the various Safety Standards and Codes of the Bureau of
Indian Standards. The guidelines will cover the following aspects in the
Eleventh Plan:

i. Multi-hazard prone area/district recognised by the NDMA will be reported in

the revised National Building Code of India of the Bureau of Indian Standards.

ii. A project/scheme should be based on a detailed hazard and risk

assessment and wherever required, environmental clearance will also be
taken.

iii. All major stages of project/scheme development, namely, planning, site

investigations and designs, will be subject to a process of rigorous peer
review and will be accordingly certified.

iv. All schemes for generating basic input data for hazard and vulnerability
impact analysis to be made operational.

v. Mainstreaming disaster reduction into already approved projects in sectors

of education, housing, infrastructure, urban development, and the like.
Design of school buildings under the programme would include hazard
resistant features, in multi-hazard prone (earthquake, cyclone, flood), highrisk areas. Similarly, existing infrastructure like bridges and roads will also be
strengthened and upgraded to mitigate disaster at a subsequent stage.

Outside the framework of Plan schemes, many innovative measures will also
be adopted to encourage disaster risk reduction measures in the corporate
sector, non-government organisations, and among individuals.

Fiscal measures like rebates on income and property tax for retrofitting
unsafe buildings, compulsory risk insurance for bank loan on all types of

properties will also be introduced to mobilise resources for safe construction

and retrofitting of existing constructions in all disaster prone areas. Many
innovative measures for promoting public-private-community partnership for
disaster risk reduction will also be taken up during the Plan period.

An Extended Disaster Risk Mitigation Project has been identified for being
taken up for preparation of a Project Report during the Eleventh Plan. This
will be supplemented by activities under various other national/state level
mitigation projects.

, .

. , , , , (
' ' )
, , , ,
, , , microburst
.

: go.standard.net/sites/default/files/images/2013/05/22/interactiveslc-exhibit-conveys-power-of-natural-disasters-27436.jpg

.
,
.
.


. , ,

.

: () ;
() ; () ; () ;
() .
. ,
.

. ,

.

, , ,
. , ,
. , , microburst
,
,
.

, .
,
.

. /

 .
.

, ,
.
: () ; () ; ()
; () (LOS) ; ()
.
, .

.

/ , .

(DWS) . /
.
. ,
.

, /
.
/ .

. /
.
.

 , '
'.


, .

, , , .
,
, 30 ..

100
.

5 .. 1 , .
, midoceanic , ,

, .
,
.

continential ,

.
, .
, ,
.

,
.
.



. ,
.

,
. ( ,
- .
.)

.
-
.

,
belts-

. ' '
,
.
.
conditions-

(i)

 (ii)

(iii)

(iv)

- :

,
21 . epicentres
, , ,
, .

epicentres
.


.

, (BIS)
. 2003 , , BIS,

.

 -II III, IV,

. V
.

- , ,
, Kachch ,
, .

.

IV ,
, , , ,
,
.

III , , , , , ,
, , , , ,
.
.

-, , , , ,
, Katchh
.

underthrasting
, .

8.0
.
"Alpide " .
Sadiya
.


Dawki -
Meteorogical
, .

H. Teiedemann,
,
-
1985 .

. ,
, . ,
,
. , S,
wriggles snakelike
.

.

, ,
. ,
, 'L' .
100 habitated
.

.

.


. ,
, ,
.

. 5
. , S 8 .
,
. ,
.
.
.

'' ''

.
.

, ,
.
.

. ,
1932 , ,
,
.

.
, 10
; , ( )
10 ( 31
).

 , 3.0,
4.5 .
8.9 .
.

.
.

,
. 12

. , .

,
. ,
.

,
.

. ,
,
.

. , .


.
foreshocks ,
.

.
1 to 2 1,000 . ,
87 . , , 5-5.9
800 7 18
.

, , ,
, .

(7.3M) 1975 Haicheng
breakthroughs-. , 1976 , , Tangshan
.

. ,
-
,
.

imputs , ,
decipherable precursory
.

precursory .

,

resistivities, ,
.

.
, ,
,
dilatancy .

.
; .
,
.

-
. 1700
..,
so-, . , 1400 .. "
" 300 .. ,
.

unruptured (
) , .
180-240 ,
8.0 .
.

 Alpide
. , 7.7 14
1934 1951
, 1952 ,
.

,
.
.
.

,
.


, .

20
.

, .

2004
9.15
.

Mentawai ,
,
,
1300.
200 .

 ,

, .

, ,

.

.

. .

.

.
''
''
.

. .

II.

III. .

IV. , unsymmetrical .

. .

VI . .

:
rectangularity; ;

; 6
;
( )
;

.
.

, BIS,
.

.

, ( )
, '
' . ,
, 10-30
. ,
.

' '

. ,
.

, .

.

' ' . ,

.
.
.

,
.

, ,
/ 140
,

 .
. 500 1000
14 .. .

. : ()
; () ; ()
( ). 20
30 . .

317
. ( ) .


12 Bakerganj 1876 .

, -
, - .
, ,
,
, .

, -, .
,
, ,
. 1891
,
.

90
,

 . 10
,
.

, ,
(ITCZ). ,
.

.
,

.
.

. ,
, ,
.

. ''
.
20 30 .. . ,
. 50 .. .

,
.
.

, -
. ,
.

 , ,
,
. .
, , 24

.


.

,
. , ,
;
. (,
)
.

() .
, 10,000 22
- 17
.
, ,
,
.

,

.

.

()

(ii) (iii) ,
, (iv) , (v)
.

. ,
, , , , , , ,
. 400
.
,
.

, ,
,
.