The Policy of Obama Administration

3/11/2016
President Obamas Interview With Jeffrey Goldberg on Syria and Foreign Policy - The Atlantic
The
Obama
Doctrine
TheU.S.presidenttalksthroughhishardestdecisionsabout
Americasroleintheworld.
By
JEFFREYGOLDBERG
PhotographsbyRuvenAfanador
APRIL 2016 ISSUE

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/
POLITICS
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RIDAY,AUGUST30,2013,thedaythefecklessBarackObama
broughttoaprematureendAmericasreignastheworldssole
indispensablesuperpoweror,alternatively,thedaythe
sagaciousBarackObamapeeredintotheMiddleEasternabyss
andsteppedbackfromtheconsumingvoidbeganwithathunderingspeech
givenonObamasbehalfbyhissecretaryofstate,JohnKerry,inWashington,
D.C.ThesubjectofKerrysuncharacteristicallyChurchillianremarks,
deliveredintheTreatyRoomattheStateDepartment,wasthegassingof
civiliansbythepresidentofSyria,Basharal-Assad.
OBAMA ON ...
1. Why hes proud of not striking Assad in 2013
2. The necessity of pivoting from the Middle East to Asia and other regions
3. Why Ukraine will always be vulnerable to Russian domination
4. Resisting John Kerrys requests to attack Syrian-regime targets
5. Why Saudi Arabia should share the Middle East with Iran
6. How ISIS is like the Joker
7. Why Putin is not completely stupid
8. How France and Great Britain contributed to the mess in Libya
9. Why ISIS isnt an existential threat, but climate change is
10. Why he resents Netanyahus lectures
Obama,inwhoseCabinetKerryservesfaithfully,butwithsome
exasperation,ishimselfgiventovaultingoratory,butnotusuallyofthe
martialsortassociatedwithChurchill.Obamabelievesthatthe
Manichaeanism,andeloquentlyrenderedbellicosity,commonlyassociated
withChurchillwerejustifiedbyHitlersrise,andwereattimesdefensiblein
thestruggleagainsttheSovietUnion.Buthealsothinksrhetoricshouldbe
weaponizedsparingly,ifatall,intodaysmoreambiguousandcomplicated
internationalarena.ThepresidentbelievesthatChurchillianrhetoricand,
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moretothepoint,Churchillianhabitsofthought,helpedbringhis
predecessor,GeorgeW.Bush,toruinouswarinIraq.Obamaenteredthe
WhiteHousebentongettingoutofIraqandAfghanistan;hewasnotseeking
newdragonstoslay.Andhewasparticularlymindfulofpromisingvictoryin
conflictshebelievedtobeunwinnable.Ifyouweretosay,forinstance,that
weregoingtoridAfghanistanoftheTalibanandbuildaprosperous
democracyinstead,thepresidentisawarethatsomeone,sevenyearslater,is
goingtoholdyoutothatpromise,BenRhodes,Obamasdeputynationalsecurityadviser,andhisforeign-policyamanuensis,toldmenotlongago.
ButKerrysrousingremarksonthatAugustday,whichhadbeendraftedin
partbyRhodes,werethreadedwithrighteousangerandboldpromises,
includingthebarelyconcealedthreatofimminentattack.Kerry,likeObama
himself,washorrifiedbythesinscommittedbytheSyrianregimeinits
attempttoputdownatwo-year-oldrebellion.IntheDamascussuburbof
Ghoutaninedaysearlier,Assadsarmyhadmurderedmorethan1,400
civilianswithsaringas.ThestrongsentimentinsidetheObama
administrationwasthatAssadhadearneddirepunishment.InSituation
RoommeetingsthatfollowedtheattackonGhouta,onlytheWhiteHouse
chiefofstaff,DenisMcDonough,cautionedexplicitlyabouttheperilsof
intervention.JohnKerryarguedvociferouslyforaction.
Aspreviousstormsinhistoryhavegathered,whenunspeakablecrimeswere
withinourpowertostopthem,wehavebeenwarnedagainstthetemptations
oflookingtheotherway,Kerrysaidinhisspeech.Historyisfullofleaders
whohavewarnedagainstinaction,indifference,andespeciallyagainst
silencewhenitmatteredmost.
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KerrycountedPresidentObamaamongthoseleaders.Ayearearlier,when
theadministrationsuspectedthattheAssadregimewascontemplatingthe
useofchemicalweapons,Obamahaddeclared:Wehavebeenveryclearto
theAssadregimethataredlineforusiswestartseeingawholebunchof
chemicalweaponsmovingaroundorbeingutilized.Thatwouldchangemy
calculus.Thatwouldchangemyequation.
Despitethisthreat,Obamaseemedtomanycriticstobecoldlydetached
fromthesufferingofinnocentSyrians.Lateinthesummerof2011,hehad
calledforAssadsdeparture.ForthesakeoftheSyrianpeople,Obama
said,thetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.ButObama
initiallydidlittletobringaboutAssadsend.
Heresisteddemandstoactinpartbecauseheassumed,basedontheanalysis
ofU.S.intelligence,thatAssadwouldfallwithouthishelp.Hethought
AssadwouldgothewayMubarakwent,DennisRoss,aformerMiddleEast
advisertoObama,toldme,referringtothequickdepartureofEgyptian
PresidentHosniMubarakinearly2011,amomentthatrepresentedthe
acmeoftheArabSpring.ButasAssadclungtopower,Obamasresistanceto
directinterventiononlygrew.Afterseveralmonthsofdeliberation,he
authorizedtheCIAtotrainandfundSyrianrebels,buthealsosharedthe
outlookofhisformerdefensesecretary,RobertGates,whohadroutinely
askedinmeetings,Shouldntwefinishupthetwowarswehavebeforewe
lookforanother?
RELATED STORY
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Portrait of a Presidential Mind
ThecurrentU.S.ambassadortotheUnitedNations,SamanthaPower,whois
themostdispositionallyinterventionistamongObamassenioradvisers,had
arguedearlyforarmingSyriasrebels.Power,whoduringthisperiodserved
ontheNationalSecurityCouncilstaff,istheauthorofacelebratedbook
excoriatingasuccessionofU.S.presidentsfortheirfailurestoprevent
genocide.Thebook,AProblemFromHell,publishedin2002,drewObamato
PowerwhilehewasintheU.S.Senate,thoughthetwowerenotanobvious
ideologicalmatch.Powerisapartisanofthedoctrineknownas
responsibilitytoprotect,whichholdsthatsovereigntyshouldnotbe
consideredinviolatewhenacountryisslaughteringitsowncitizens.She
lobbiedhimtoendorsethisdoctrineinthespeechhedeliveredwhenhe
acceptedtheNobelPeacePrizein2009,buthedeclined.Obamagenerally
doesnotbelieveapresidentshouldplaceAmericansoldiersatgreatriskin
ordertopreventhumanitariandisasters,unlessthosedisastersposeadirect
securitythreattotheUnitedStates.
PowersometimesarguedwithObamainfrontofotherNationalSecurity
Councilofficials,tothepointwherehecouldnolongerconcealhis
frustration.Samantha,enough,Ivealreadyreadyourbook,heonce
snapped.
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Obama in the Oval Office, where, two and a half years ago, he shocked national-security aides by calling off air strikes on Syria
(Ruven Afanador)
Obama,unlikeliberalinterventionists,isanadmireroftheforeign-policy
realismofPresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushand,inparticular,ofBushsnationalsecurityadviser,BrentScowcroft(Ilovethatguy,Obamaoncetoldme).
BushandScowcroftremovedSaddamHusseinsarmyfromKuwaitin1991,
andtheydeftlymanagedthedisintegrationoftheSovietUnion;Scowcroft
also,onBushsbehalf,toastedtheleadersofChinashortlyaftertheslaughter
inTiananmenSquare.AsObamawaswritinghiscampaignmanifesto,The
AudacityofHope,in2006,SusanRice,thenaninformaladviser,feltit
necessarytoremindhimtoincludeatleastonelineofpraisefortheforeign
policyofPresidentBillClinton,topartiallybalancethepraiseheshoweredon
BushandScowcroft.
AttheoutsetoftheSyrianuprising,inearly2011,Powerarguedthatthe
rebels,drawnfromtheranksofordinarycitizens,deservedAmericas
enthusiasticsupport.Othersnotedthattherebelswerefarmersanddoctors
andcarpenters,comparingtheserevolutionariestothemenwhowon
Americaswarforindependence.
RELATED STORY
Obama on the World
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Obamaflippedthispleaonitshead.Whenyouhaveaprofessionalarmy,
heoncetoldme,thatiswellarmedandsponsoredbytwolargestatesIran
andRussiawhohavehugestakesinthis,andtheyarefightingagainsta
farmer,acarpenter,anengineerwhostartedoutasprotestersandsuddenly
nowseethemselvesinthemidstofacivilconflictHepaused.Thenotion
thatwecouldhaveinacleanwaythatdidntcommitU.S.militaryforces
changedtheequationonthegroundtherewasnevertrue.Themessage
Obamatelegraphedinspeechesandinterviewswasclear:Hewouldnotend
uplikethesecondPresidentBushapresidentwhobecametragically
overextendedintheMiddleEast,whosedecisionsfilledthewardsofWalter
Reedwithgrievouslywoundedsoldiers,whowashelplesstostopthe
obliterationofhisreputation,evenwhenherecalibratedhispoliciesinhis
secondterm.ObamawouldsayprivatelythatthefirsttaskofanAmerican
presidentinthepost-BushinternationalarenawasDontdostupidshit.
ObamasreticencefrustratedPowerandothersonhisnational-securityteam
whohadapreferenceforaction.HillaryClinton,whenshewasObamas
secretaryofstate,arguedforanearlyandassertiveresponsetoAssads
violence.In2014,aftersheleftoffice,Clintontoldmethatthefailureto
helpbuildupacrediblefightingforceofthepeoplewhoweretheoriginators
oftheprotestsagainstAssadleftabigvacuum,whichthejihadistshave
nowfilled.WhenTheAtlanticpublishedthisstatement,andalsopublished
Clintonsassessmentthatgreatnationsneedorganizingprinciples,
andDontdostupidstuffisnotanorganizingprinciple,Obamabecame
rip-shitangry,accordingtooneofhissenioradvisers.Thepresidentdid
notunderstandhowDontdostupidshitcouldbeconsidereda
controversialslogan.BenRhodesrecallsthatthequestionswewereasking
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intheWhiteHousewereWhoexactlyisinthestupid-shitcaucus?Whois
prostupidshit?TheIraqinvasion,Obamabelieved,shouldhavetaught
DemocraticinterventionistslikeClinton,whohadvotedforitsauthorization,
thedangersofdoingstupidshit.(ClintonquicklyapologizedtoObamafor
hercomments,andaClintonspokesmanannouncedthatthetwowouldhug
itoutonMarthasVineyardwhentheycrossedpathstherelater.)
Video: Obama's Red Line That Wasn't
Inside the presidents last-minute decision not to bomb Syria in 2013
Syria,forObama,representedaslopepotentiallyasslipperyasIraq.Inhis
firstterm,hecametobelievethatonlyahandfulofthreatsintheMiddleEast
conceivablywarranteddirectU.S.militaryintervention.Theseincludedthe
threatposedbyalQaeda;threatstothecontinuedexistenceofIsrael(It
wouldbeamoralfailingformeaspresidentoftheUnitedStatesnotto
defendIsrael,heoncetoldme);and,notunrelatedtoIsraelssecurity,the
threatposedbyanuclear-armedIran.ThedangertotheUnitedStatesposed
bytheAssadregimedidnotrisetothelevelofthesechallenges.
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GivenObamasreticenceaboutintervention,thebright-redlinehedrewfor
Assadinthesummerof2012wasstriking.Evenhisownadviserswere
surprised.Ididntknowitwascoming,hissecretaryofdefenseatthetime,
LeonPanetta,toldme.IwastoldthatVicePresidentJoeBidenrepeatedly
warnedObamaagainstdrawingaredlineonchemicalweapons,fearingthat
itwouldonedayhavetobeenforced.
Kerry,inhisremarksonAugust30,2013,suggestedthatAssadshouldbe
punishedinpartbecausethecredibilityandthefutureinterestsofthe
UnitedStatesofAmericaandourallieswereatstake.Itisdirectlyrelated
toourcredibilityandwhethercountriesstillbelievetheUnitedStateswhenit
sayssomething.TheyarewatchingtoseeifSyriacangetawaywithit,
becausethenmaybetheytoocanputtheworldatgreaterrisk.
Ninetyminuteslater,attheWhiteHouse,ObamareinforcedKerrysmessage
inapublicstatement:Itsimportantforustorecognizethatwhenover
1,000peoplearekilled,includinghundredsofinnocentchildren,throughthe
useofaweaponthat98or99percentofhumanitysaysshouldnotbeused
eveninwar,andthereisnoaction,thenweresendingasignalthatthat
internationalnormdoesntmeanmuch.Andthatisadangertoournational
security.
ItappearedasthoughObamahaddrawntheconclusionthatdamageto
Americancredibilityinoneregionoftheworldwouldbleedintoothers,and
thatU.S.deterrentcredibilitywasindeedatstakeinSyria.Assad,itseemed,
hadsucceededinpushingthepresidenttoaplaceheneverthoughthewould
havetogo.ObamagenerallybelievesthattheWashingtonforeign-policy
establishment,whichhesecretlydisdains,makesafetishofcredibility
particularlythesortofcredibilitypurchasedwithforce.Thepreservationof
credibility,hesays,ledtoVietnam.WithintheWhiteHouse,Obamawould
arguethatdroppingbombsonsomeonetoprovethatyourewillingtodrop
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bombsonsomeoneisjustabouttheworstreasontouseforce.
Americannational-securitycredibility,asitisconventionallyunderstoodin
thePentagon,theStateDepartment,andtheclusterofthinktanks
headquarteredwithinwalkingdistanceoftheWhiteHouse,isanintangible
yetpotentforceonethat,whenproperlynurtured,keepsAmericasfriends
feelingsecureandkeepstheinternationalorderstable.
InWhiteHousemeetingsthatcrucialweekinAugust,Biden,whoordinarily
sharedObamasworriesaboutAmericanoverreach,arguedpassionatelythat
bignationsdontbluff.AmericasclosestalliesinEuropeandacrossthe
MiddleEastbelievedObamawasthreateningmilitaryaction,andhisown
advisersdidaswell.AtajointpressconferencewithObamaattheWhite
HousethepreviousMay,DavidCameron,theBritishprimeminister,had
said,Syriashistoryisbeingwritteninthebloodofherpeople,anditis
happeningonourwatch.Cameronsstatement,oneofhisadviserstoldme,
wasmeanttoencourageObamatowardmore-decisiveaction.Theprime
ministerwascertainlyundertheimpressionthatthepresidentwouldenforce
theredline,theadvisertoldme.TheSaudiambassadorinWashingtonat
thetime,Adelal-Jubeir,toldfriends,andhissuperiorsinRiyadh,thatthe
presidentwasfinallyreadytostrike.Obamafiguredouthowimportantthis
is,Jubeir,whoisnowtheSaudiforeignminister,toldoneinterlocutor.He
willdefinitelystrike.
ObamahadalreadyorderedthePentagontodeveloptargetlists.FiveArleigh
BurkeclassdestroyerswereintheMediterranean,readytofirecruise
missilesatregimetargets.FrenchPresidentFranoisHollande,themost
enthusiasticallypro-interventionamongEuropesleaders,waspreparingto
strikeaswell.Allweek,WhiteHouseofficialshadpubliclybuiltthecasethat
Assadhadcommittedacrimeagainsthumanity.Kerrysspeechwouldmark
theculminationofthiscampaign.
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Butthepresidenthadgrownqueasy.InthedaysafterthegassingofGhouta,
Obamawouldlatertellme,hefoundhimselfrecoilingfromtheideaofan
attackunsanctionedbyinternationallaworbyCongress.TheAmerican
peopleseemedunenthusiasticaboutaSyriaintervention;sotoodidoneof
thefewforeignleadersObamarespects,AngelaMerkel,theGerman
chancellor.ShetoldhimthathercountrywouldnotparticipateinaSyria
campaign.Andinastunningdevelopment,onThursday,August29,the
BritishParliamentdeniedDavidCameronitsblessingforanattack.John
Kerrylatertoldmethatwhenheheardthat,internally,Iwent,Oops.
ObamawasalsounsettledbyasurprisevisitearlyintheweekfromJames
Clapper,hisdirectorofnationalintelligence,whointerruptedthePresidents
DailyBrief,thethreatreportObamareceiveseachmorningfromClappers
analysts,tomakeclearthattheintelligenceonSyriasuseofsaringas,while
robust,wasnotaslamdunk.Hechosethetermcarefully.Clapper,the
chiefofanintelligencecommunitytraumatizedbyitsfailuresintherun-upto
theIraqWar,wasnotgoingtooverpromise,inthemanneroftheonetime
CIAdirectorGeorgeTenet,whofamouslyguaranteedGeorgeW.Busha
slamdunkinIraq.
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Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with members of the National Security Council, including Susan Rice
and John Kerry (second and third from left), in December 2014. (Pete Souza / White House)
WhilethePentagonandtheWhiteHousesnational-securityapparatuses
werestillmovingtowardwar(JohnKerrytoldmehewasexpectingastrike
thedayafterhisspeech),thepresidenthadcometobelievethathewas
walkingintoatraponelaidbothbyalliesandbyadversaries,andby
conventionalexpectationsofwhatanAmericanpresidentissupposedtodo.
Manyofhisadvisersdidnotgraspthedepthofthepresidentsmisgivings;his
Cabinetandhisallieswerecertainlyunawareofthem.Buthisdoubtswere
growing.LateonFridayafternoon,Obamadeterminedthathewassimply
notpreparedtoauthorizeastrike.HeaskedMcDonough,hischiefofstaff,to
takeawalkwithhimontheSouthLawnoftheWhiteHouse.Obamadidnot
chooseMcDonoughrandomly:HeistheObamaaidemostaversetoU.S.
militaryintervention,andsomeonewho,inthewordsofoneofhis
colleagues,thinksintermsoftraps.Obama,ordinarilyapreternaturally
confidentman,waslookingforvalidation,andtryingtodevisewaysto
explainhischangeofheart,bothtohisownaidesandtothepublic.Heand
McDonoughstayedoutsideforanhour.Obamatoldhimhewasworriedthat
Assadwouldplaceciviliansashumanshieldsaroundobvioustargets.He
alsopointedoutanunderlyingflawintheproposedstrike:U.S.missiles
wouldnotbefiredatchemical-weaponsdepots,forfearofsendingplumesof
poisonintotheair.Astrikewouldtargetmilitaryunitsthathaddelivered
theseweapons,butnottheweaponsthemselves.
ObamaalsosharedwithMcDonoughalong-standingresentment:Hewas
tiredofwatchingWashingtonunthinkinglydrifttowardwarinMuslim
countries.Fouryearsearlier,thepresidentbelieved,thePentagonhad
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jammedhimonatroopsurgeforAfghanistan.Now,onSyria,hewas
beginningtofeeljammedagain.
WhenthetwomencamebacktotheOvalOffice,thepresidenttoldhis
national-securityaidesthatheplannedtostanddown.Therewouldbeno
attackthenextday;hewantedtoreferthemattertoCongressforavote.
Aidesintheroomwereshocked.SusanRice,nowObamasnational-security
adviser,arguedthatthedamagetoAmericascredibilitywouldbeseriousand
lasting.Othershaddifficultyfathominghowthepresidentcouldreverse
himselfthedaybeforeaplannedstrike.Obama,however,wascompletely
calm.Ifyouvebeenaroundhim,youknowwhenhesambivalentabout
something,whenitsa5149decision,BenRhodestoldme.Buthewas
completelyatease.
Notlongago,IaskedObamatodescribehisthinkingonthatday.Helisted
thepracticalworriesthathadpreoccupiedhim.WehadUNinspectorson
thegroundwhowerecompletingtheirwork,andwecouldnotrisktakinga
shotwhiletheywerethere.AsecondmajorfactorwasthefailureofCameron
toobtaintheconsentofhisparliament.
Thethird,andmostimportant,factor,hetoldme,wasourassessmentthat
whilewecouldinflictsomedamageonAssad,wecouldnot,throughamissile
strike,eliminatethechemicalweaponsthemselves,andwhatIwouldthen
facewastheprospectofAssadhavingsurvivedthestrikeandclaiminghehad
successfullydefiedtheUnitedStates,thattheUnitedStateshadacted
unlawfullyintheabsenceofaUNmandate,andthatthatwouldhave
potentiallystrengthenedhishandratherthanweakenedit.
Thefourthfactor,hesaid,wasofdeeperphilosophicalimportance.This
fallsinthecategoryofsomethingthatIhadbeenbroodingonforsometime,
hesaid.Ihadcomeintoofficewiththestrongbeliefthatthescopeof
executivepowerinnational-securityissuesisverybroad,butnotlimitless.
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ObamaknewhisdecisionnottobombSyriawouldlikelyupsetAmericas
allies.Itdid.TheprimeministerofFrance,ManuelValls,toldmethathis
governmentwasalreadyworriedabouttheconsequencesofearlierinaction
inSyriawhenwordcameofthestand-down.Bynotinterveningearly,we
havecreatedamonster,Vallstoldme.Wewereabsolutelycertainthatthe
U.S.administrationwouldsayyes.WorkingwiththeAmericans,wehad
alreadyseenthetargets.Itwasagreatsurprise.Ifwehadbombedaswas
planned,Ithinkthingswouldbedifferenttoday.ThecrownprinceofAbu
Dhabi,MohammedbinZayedal-Nahyan,whowasalreadyupsetwith
ObamaforabandoningHosniMubarak,theformerpresidentofEgypt,
fumedtoAmericanvisitorsthattheU.S.wasledbyanuntrustworthy
president.ThekingofJordan,AbdullahIIalreadydismayedbywhathesaw
asObamasillogicaldesiretodistancetheU.S.fromitstraditionalSunniArab
alliesandcreateanewalliancewithIran,AssadsShiasponsorcomplained
privately,IthinkIbelieveinAmericanpowermorethanObamadoes.The
Saudis,too,wereinfuriated.TheyhadnevertrustedObamahehad,long
beforehebecamepresident,referredtothemasaso-calledallyoftheU.S.
IranisthenewgreatpoweroftheMiddleEast,andtheU.S.istheold,
Jubeir,theSaudiambassadorinWashington,toldhissuperiorsinRiyadh.
ObamasdecisioncausedtremorsacrossWashingtonaswell.JohnMcCain
andLindseyGraham,thetwoleadingRepublicanhawksintheSenate,had
metwithObamaintheWhiteHouseearlierintheweekandhadbeen
promisedanattack.Theywereangeredbytheabout-face.Damagewasdone
eveninsidetheadministration.NeitherChuckHagel,thenthesecretaryof
defense,norJohnKerrywasintheOvalOfficewhenthepresidentinformed
histeamofhisthinking.Kerrywouldnotlearnaboutthechangeuntillater
thatevening.Ijustgotfuckedover,hetoldafriendshortlyaftertalkingto
thepresidentthatnight.(WhenIaskedKerryrecentlyaboutthattumultuous
night,hesaid,Ididntstoptoanalyzeit.Ifiguredthepresidenthadareason
tomakeadecisionand,honestly,Iunderstoodhisnotion.)
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Thenextfewdayswerechaotic.ThepresidentaskedCongresstoauthorize
theuseofforcetheirrepressibleKerryservedaschieflobbyistandit
quicklybecameapparentintheWhiteHousethatCongresshadlittleinterest
inastrike.WhenIspokewithBidenrecentlyaboutthered-linedecision,he
madespecialnoteofthisfact.ItmatterstohaveCongresswithyou,interms
ofyourabilitytosustainwhatyousetouttodo,hesaid.Obamadidntgoto
Congresstogethimselfoffthehook.Hehadhisdoubtsatthatpoint,buthe
knewthatifhewasgoingtodoanything,hebetterdamnwellhavethepublic
withhim,oritwouldbeaveryshortride.Congresssclearambivalence
convincedBidenthatObamawascorrecttofeartheslipperyslope.What
happenswhenwegetaplaneshotdown?Dowenotgoinandrescue?,Biden
asked.YouneedthesupportoftheAmericanpeople.
Amidtheconfusion,adeusexmachinaappearedintheformoftheRussian
president,VladimirPutin.AttheG20summitinSt.Petersburg,whichwas
heldtheweekaftertheSyriareversal,ObamapulledPutinaside,herecalled
tome,andtoldtheRussianpresidentthatifheforcedAssadtogetridofthe
chemicalweapons,thatthatwouldeliminatetheneedforustakingamilitary
strike.Withinweeks,Kerry,workingwithhisRussiancounterpart,Sergey
Lavrov,wouldengineertheremovalofmostofSyriaschemical-weapons
arsenalaprogramwhoseexistenceAssaduntilthenhadrefusedtoeven
acknowledge.
THE MOMENT OBAMA DECIDED NOT TO

ENFORCE HIS RED LINE AND BOMB SYRIA, HE
BROKE WITH WHAT HE CALLS, DERISIVELY,
THE WASHINGTON PLAYBOOK. THIS WAS
HIS LIBERATION DAY.
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Thearrangementwonthepresidentpraisefrom,ofallpeople,Benjamin
Netanyahu,theIsraeliprimeminister,withwhomhehashadaconsistently
contentiousrelationship.TheremovalofSyriaschemical-weapons
stockpilesrepresentedtheonerayoflightinaverydarkregion,Netanyahu
toldmenotlongafterthedealwasannounced.
JohnKerrytodayexpressesnopatienceforthosewhoargue,ashehimself
oncedid,thatObamashouldhavebombedAssad-regimesitesinorderto
buttressAmericasdeterrentcapability.Youdstillhavetheweaponsthere,
andyoudprobablybefightingISILforcontroloftheweapons,hesaid,
referringtotheIslamicState,theterrorgroupalsoknownasISIS.Itjust
doesntmakesense.ButIcantdenytoyouthatthisnotionabouttheredline
beingcrossedand[Obamas]notdoinganythinggainedalifeofitsown.
Obamaunderstandsthatthedecisionhemadetostepbackfromairstrikes,
andtoallowtheviolationofaredlinehehimselfhaddrawntogo
unpunished,willbeinterrogatedmercilesslybyhistorians.Buttodaythat
decisionisasourceofdeepsatisfactionforhim.
Imveryproudofthismoment,hetoldme.Theoverwhelmingweightof
conventionalwisdomandthemachineryofournational-securityapparatus
hadgonefairlyfar.Theperceptionwasthatmycredibilitywasatstake,that
Americascredibilitywasatstake.Andsoformetopressthepausebuttonat
thatmoment,Iknew,wouldcostmepolitically.AndthefactthatIwasableto
pullbackfromtheimmediatepressuresandthinkthroughinmyownmind
whatwasinAmericasinterest,notonlywithrespecttoSyriabutalsowith
respecttoourdemocracy,wasastoughadecisionasIvemadeandIbelieve
ultimatelyitwastherightdecisiontomake.
Thiswasthemomentthepresidentbelieveshefinallybrokewithwhathe
calls,derisively,theWashingtonplaybook.
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WhereamIcontroversial?Whenitcomestotheuseofmilitarypower,he
said.Thatisthesourceofthecontroversy.Theresaplaybookin
Washingtonthatpresidentsaresupposedtofollow.Itsaplaybookthat
comesoutoftheforeign-policyestablishment.Andtheplaybookprescribes
responsestodifferentevents,andtheseresponsestendtobemilitarized
responses.WhereAmericaisdirectlythreatened,theplaybookworks.But
theplaybookcanalsobeatrapthatcanleadtobaddecisions.Inthemidstof
aninternationalchallengelikeSyria,yougetjudgedharshlyifyoudont
followtheplaybook,eveniftherearegoodreasonswhyitdoesnotapply.
Ihavecometobelievethat,inObamasmind,August30,2013,washis
liberationday,thedayhedefiednotonlytheforeign-policyestablishment
anditscruise-missileplaybook,butalsothedemandsofAmericas
frustrating,high-maintenancealliesintheMiddleEastcountries,he
complainsprivatelytofriendsandadvisers,thatseektoexploitAmerican
musclefortheirownnarrowandsectarianends.By2013,Obamas
resentmentswerewelldeveloped.Heresentedmilitaryleaderswhobelieved
theycouldfixanyproblemifthecommanderinchiefwouldsimplygivethem
whattheywanted,andheresentedtheforeign-policythink-tankcomplex.A
widelyheldsentimentinsidetheWhiteHouseisthatmanyofthemost
prominentforeign-policythinktanksinWashingtonaredoingthebiddingof
theirArabandpro-Israelfunders.Iveheardoneadministrationofficialrefer
toMassachusettsAvenue,thehomeofmanyofthesethinktanks,asAraboccupiedterritory.
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Obama talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin

prior to the opening session of the G20 in Antalya in
November of 2015. (Cem Oksuz / Reuters)
Forsomeforeign-policyexperts,evenwithinhisownadministration,
Obamasabout-faceonenforcingtheredlinewasadispiritingmomentin
whichhedisplayedirresolutionandnavet,anddidlastingdamageto
Americasstandingintheworld.Oncethecommanderinchiefdrawsthat
redline,LeonPanetta,whoservedasCIAdirectorandthenassecretaryof
defenseinObamasfirstterm,toldmerecently,thenIthinkthecredibility
ofthecommanderinchiefandthisnationisatstakeifhedoesntenforceit.
RightafterObamasreversal,HillaryClintonsaidprivately,Ifyousay
youregoingtostrike,youhavetostrike.Theresnochoice.
Assadiseffectivelybeingrewardedfortheuseofchemicalweapons,rather
thanpunishedasoriginallyplanned.ShadiHamid,ascholaratthe
BrookingsInstitution,wroteforTheAtlanticatthetime.Hehasmanagedto
removethethreatofU.S.militaryactionwhilegivingverylittleupinreturn.
EvencommentatorswhohavebeenbroadlysympathetictoObamaspolicies
sawthisepisodeascalamitous.GideonRose,theeditorofForeignAffairs,
wroterecentlythatObamashandlingofthiscrisisfirstcasually
announcingamajorcommitment,thenditheringaboutlivinguptoit,then
franticallytossingtheballtoCongressforadecisionwasacasestudyin
embarrassinglyamateurishimprovisation.
Obamasdefenders,however,arguethathedidnodamagetoU.S.
credibility,citingAssadssubsequentagreementtohavehischemical
weaponsremoved.Thethreatofforcewascredibleenoughforthemtogive
uptheirchemicalweapons,TimKaine,aDemocraticsenatorfromVirginia,
toldme.Wethreatenedmilitaryactionandtheyresponded.Thats
deterrentcredibility.
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HistorymayrecordAugust30,2013,asthedayObamapreventedtheU.S.
fromenteringyetanotherdisastrousMuslimcivilwar,andthedayhe
removedthethreatofachemicalattackonIsrael,Turkey,orJordan.Orit
couldberememberedasthedayhelettheMiddleEastslipfromAmericas
grasp,intothehandsofRussia,Iran,andISIS.
FIRSTSPOKEWITHOBAMAaboutforeignpolicywhenhewasaU.S.
senator,in2006.Atthetime,Iwasfamiliarmainlywiththetextofa
speechhehaddeliveredfouryearsearlier,ataChicagoantiwarrally.
Itwasanunusualspeechforanantiwarrallyinthatitwasnot
antiwar;Obama,whowasthenanIllinoisstatesenator,arguedonlyagainst
onespecificand,atthetime,stilltheoretical,war.Isuffernoillusionsabout
SaddamHussein,hesaid.Heisabrutalman.AruthlessmanButIalso
knowthatSaddamposesnoimminentanddirectthreattotheUnitedStates
ortohisneighbors.Headded,IknowthataninvasionofIraqwithouta
clearrationaleandwithoutstronginternationalsupportwillonlyfanthe
flamesoftheMiddleEast,andencouragetheworst,ratherthanbest,
impulsesoftheArabworld,andstrengthentherecruitmentarmofalQaeda.
Thisspeechhadmademecuriousaboutitsauthor.Iwantedtolearnhowan
Illinoisstatesenator,apart-timelawprofessorwhospenthisdaystraveling
betweenChicagoandSpringfield,hadcometoamoreprescient
understandingofthecomingquagmirethanthemostexperiencedforeignpolicythinkersofhisparty,includingsuchfiguresasHillaryClinton,Joe
Biden,andJohnKerry,nottomention,ofcourse,mostRepublicansand
manyforeign-policyanalystsandwriters,includingme.
Sincethatfirstmeetingin2006,IveinterviewedObamaperiodically,mainly
onmattersrelatedtotheMiddleEast.Butoverthepastfewmonths,Ive
spentseveralhourstalkingwithhimaboutthebroadestthemesofhislong
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gameforeignpolicy,includingthethemesheismosteagertodiscuss
namely,theonesthathavenothingtodowiththeMiddleEast.
ISISisnotanexistentialthreattotheUnitedStates,hetoldmeinoneof
theseconversations.Climatechangeisapotentialexistentialthreattothe
entireworldifwedontdosomethingaboutit.Obamaexplainedthat
climatechangeworrieshiminparticularbecauseitisapoliticalproblem
perfectlydesignedtorepelgovernmentintervention.Itinvolveseverysingle
country,anditisacomparativelyslow-movingemergency,sothereisalways
somethingseeminglymoreurgentontheagenda.
Atthemoment,ofcourse,themosturgentoftheseeminglymoreurgent
issuesisSyria.Butatanygivenmoment,Obamasentirepresidencycouldbe
upendedbyNorthKoreanaggression,oranassaultbyRussiaonamemberof
NATO,oranISIS-plannedattackonU.S.soil.Fewpresidentshavefacedsuch
diversetestsontheinternationalstageasObamahas,andthechallengefor
him,asforallpresidents,hasbeentodistinguishthemerelyurgentfromthe
trulyimportant,andtofocusontheimportant.
MygoalinourrecentconversationswastoseetheworldthroughObamas
eyes,andtounderstandwhathebelievesAmericasroleintheworldshould
be.Thisarticleisinformedbyourrecentseriesofconversations,whichtook
placeintheOvalOffice;overlunchinhisdiningroom;aboardAirForceOne;
andinKualaLumpurduringhismostrecentvisittoAsia,inNovember.Itis
alsoinformedbymypreviousinterviewswithhimandbyhisspeechesand
prolificpublicruminations,aswellasbyconversationswithhistopforeignpolicyandnational-securityadvisers,foreignleadersandtheirambassadors
inWashington,friendsofthepresidentandotherswhohavespokenwithhim
abouthispoliciesanddecisions,andhisadversariesandcritics.
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Leon Panetta (left) attends a press briefing on military strategy in January 2012. Panetta, then Obamas secretary of
defense, has criticized the president's failure to enforce the Syrian red line. (Aharaz N. Ghanbari / AP)
Overthecourseofourconversations,IcametoseeObamaasapresident
whohasgrownsteadilymorefatalisticabouttheconstraintsonAmericas
abilitytodirectglobalevents,evenashehas,lateinhispresidency,
accumulatedasetofpotentiallyhistoricforeign-policyachievements
controversial,provisionalachievements,tobesure,butachievements
nonetheless:theopeningtoCuba,theParisclimate-changeaccord,the
Trans-PacificPartnershiptradeagreement,and,ofcourse,theIrannuclear
deal.Theseheaccomplisheddespitehisgrowingsensethatlargerforcesthe
riptideoftribalfeelinginaworldthatshouldhavealreadysheditsatavism;
theresilienceofsmallmenwhorulelargecountriesinwayscontrarytotheir
ownbestinterests;thepersistenceoffearasagoverninghumanemotion
frequentlyconspireagainstthebestofAmericasintentions.Buthealsohas
cometolearn,hetoldme,thatverylittleisaccomplishedininternational
affairswithoutU.S.leadership.
Obamatalkedmethroughthisapparentcontradiction.Iwantapresident
whohasthesensethatyoucantfixeverything,hesaid.Butontheother
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hand,ifwedontsettheagenda,itdoesnthappen.Heexplainedwhathe
meant.Thefactis,thereisnotasummitIveattendedsinceIvebeen
presidentwherewearenotsettingtheagenda,wherewearenotresponsible
forthekeyresults,hesaid.Thatstruewhetheryouretalkingabout
nuclearsecurity,whetheryouretalkingaboutsavingtheworldfinancial
system,whetheryouretalkingaboutclimate.
Oneday,overlunchintheOvalOfficediningroom,Iaskedthepresident
howhethoughthisforeignpolicymightbeunderstoodbyhistorians.He
startedbydescribingformeafour-boxgridrepresentingthemainschoolsof
Americanforeign-policythought.Oneboxhecalledisolationism,whichhe
dismissedoutofhand.Theworldisever-shrinking,hesaid.Withdrawalis
untenable.Theotherboxeshelabeledrealism,liberalinterventionism,and
internationalism.Isupposeyoucouldcallmearealistinbelievingwecant,
atanygivenmoment,relievealltheworldsmisery,hesaid.Wehaveto
choosewherewecanmakearealimpact.Healsonotedthathewasquite
obviouslyaninternationalist,devotedasheistostrengtheningmultilateral
organizationsandinternationalnorms.
Itoldhimmyimpressionwasthatthevarioustraumasofthepastsevenyears
have,ifanything,intensifiedhiscommitmenttorealist-drivenrestraint.Had
nearlytwofulltermsintheWhiteHousesouredhimoninterventionism?
Forallofourwarts,theUnitedStateshasclearlybeenaforceforgoodinthe
world,hesaid.Ifyoucompareustoprevioussuperpowers,weactlesson
thebasisofnakedself-interest,andhavebeeninterestedinestablishing
normsthatbenefiteveryone.Ifitispossibletodogoodatabearablecost,to
savelives,wewilldoit.
Ifacrisis,orahumanitariancatastrophe,doesnotmeethisstringent
standardforwhatconstitutesadirectnational-securitythreat,Obamasaid,
hedoesntbelievethatheshouldbeforcedintosilence.Heisnotsomuchthe
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realist,hesuggested,thathewontpassjudgmentonotherleaders.Though
hehassofarruledouttheuseofdirectAmericanpowertodeposeAssad,he
wasnotwrong,heargued,tocallonAssadtogo.Oftentimeswhenyouget
criticsofourSyriapolicy,oneofthethingsthattheyllpointoutisYoucalled
forAssadtogo,butyoudidntforcehimtogo.Youdidnotinvade.Andthe
notionisthatifyouwerentgoingtooverthrowtheregime,youshouldnt
havesaidanything.Thatsaweirdargumenttome,thenotionthatifweuse
ourmoralauthoritytosayThisisabrutalregime,andthisisnothowaleader
shouldtreathispeople,onceyoudothat,youareobligedtoinvadethe
countryandinstallagovernmentyouprefer.
Iamverymuchtheinternationalist,Obamasaidinalaterconversation.
AndIamalsoanidealistinsofarasIbelievethatweshouldbepromoting
values,likedemocracyandhumanrightsandnormsandvalues,becausenot
onlydotheyserveourintereststhemorepeopleadoptvaluesthatweshare
inthesamewaythat,economically,ifpeopleadoptruleoflawandproperty
rightsandsoforth,thatistoouradvantagebutbecauseitmakestheworlda
betterplace.AndImwillingtosaythatinaverycornyway,andinawaythat
probablyBrentScowcroftwouldnotsay.
Havingsaidthat,hecontinued,Ialsobelievethattheworldisatough,
complicated,messy,meanplace,andfullofhardshipandtragedy.Andin
ordertoadvancebothoursecurityinterestsandthoseidealsandvaluesthat
wecareabout,wevegottobehardheadedatthesametimeaswere
bighearted,andpickandchooseourspots,andrecognizethattherearegoing
tobetimeswherethebestthatwecandoistoshineaspotlightonsomething
thatsterrible,butnotbelievethatwecanautomaticallysolveit.Thereare
goingtobetimeswhereoursecurityinterestsconflictwithourconcerns
abouthumanrights.Therearegoingtobetimeswherewecandosomething
aboutinnocentpeoplebeingkilled,buttherearegoingtobetimeswherewe
cant.
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IfObamaeverquestionedwhetherAmericareallyistheworldsone
indispensablenation,henolongerdoesso.Butheistherarepresidentwho
seemsattimestoresentindispensability,ratherthanembraceit.Freeriders
aggravateme,hetoldme.Recently,ObamawarnedthatGreatBritain
wouldnolongerbeabletoclaimaspecialrelationshipwiththeUnited
Statesifitdidnotcommittospendingatleast2percentofitsGDPon
defense.Youhavetopayyourfairshare,ObamatoldDavidCameron,who
subsequentlymetthe2percentthreshold.
Partofhismissionaspresident,Obamaexplained,istospurothercountries
totakeactionforthemselves,ratherthanwaitfortheU.S.tolead.The
defenseoftheliberalinternationalorderagainstjihadistterror,Russian
adventurism,andChinesebullyingdependsinpart,hebelieves,onthe
willingnessofothernationstosharetheburdenwiththeU.S.Thisiswhythe
controversysurroundingtheassertionmadebyananonymous
administrationofficialtoTheNewYorkerduringtheLibyacrisisof2011
thathispolicyconsistedofleadingfrombehindperturbedhim.Wedont
havetoalwaysbetheoneswhoareupfront,hetoldme.Sometimeswere
goingtogetwhatwewantpreciselybecausewearesharingintheagenda.
TheironyisthatitwaspreciselyinordertopreventtheEuropeansandthe
Arabstatesfromholdingourcoatswhilewedidallthefightingthatwe,by
design,insistedthattheyleadduringthemissiontoremoveMuammar
QaddafifrompowerinLibya.Itwaspartoftheantifreeridercampaign.
Thepresidentalsoseemstobelievethatsharingleadershipwithother
countriesisawaytocheckAmericasmoreunrulyimpulses.Oneofthe
reasonsIamsofocusedontakingactionmultilaterallywhereourdirect
interestsarenotatstakeisthatmultilateralismregulateshubris,he
explained.HeconsistentlyinvokeswhatheunderstandstobeAmericaspast
failuresoverseasasameansofcheckingAmericanself-righteousness.We
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havehistory,hesaid.WehavehistoryinIran,wehavehistoryinIndonesia
andCentralAmerica.Sowehavetobemindfulofourhistorywhenwestart
talkingaboutintervening,andunderstandthesourceofotherpeoples
suspicions.
Obama and Cuban President Ral Castro at the Summit of the Americas last spring (Pete Souza / White House)
Inhiseffortstooff-loadsomeofAmericasforeign-policyresponsibilitiesto
itsallies,Obamaappearstobeaclassicretrenchmentpresidentinthe
mannerofDwightD.EisenhowerandRichardNixon.Retrenchment,inthis
context,isdefinedaspullingback,spendingless,cuttingrisk,andshifting
burdenstoallies,StephenSestanovich,anexpertonpresidentialforeign
policyattheCouncilonForeignRelations,explainedtome.IfJohnMcCain
hadbeenelectedin2008,youwouldstillhaveseensomedegreeof
retrenchment,Sestanovichsaid.Itswhatthecountrywanted.Ifyoucome
intoofficeinthemiddleofawarthatisnotgoingwell,youreconvincedthat
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theAmericanpeoplehavehiredyoutodoless.Onedifferencebetween
EisenhowerandNixon,ontheonehand,andObama,ontheother,
Sestanovichsaid,isthatObamaappearstohavehadapersonal,ideological
commitmenttotheideathatforeignpolicyhadconsumedtoomuchofthe
nationsattentionandresources.
IaskedObamaaboutretrenchment.Almosteverygreatworldpowerhas
succumbedtooverextension,hesaid.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheidea
thateverytimethereisaproblem,wesendinourmilitarytoimposeorder.
Wejustcantdothat.
Butoncehedecidesthataparticularchallengerepresentsadirectnationalsecuritythreat,hehasshownawillingnesstoactunilaterally.Thisisoneof
thelargerironiesoftheObamapresidency:Hehasrelentlesslyquestioned
theefficacyofforce,buthehasalsobecomethemostsuccessfulterroristhunterinthehistoryofthepresidency,onewhowillhandtohissuccessora
setoftoolsanaccomplishedassassinwouldenvy.Heappliesdifferent
standardstodirectthreatstotheU.S.,BenRhodessays.Forinstance,
despitehismisgivingsaboutSyria,hehasnothadasecondthoughtabout
drones.Somecriticsargueheshouldhavehadafewsecondthoughtsabout
whattheyseeastheoveruseofdrones.ButJohnBrennan,ObamasCIA
director,toldmerecentlythatheandthepresidenthavesimilarviews.One
ofthemisthatsometimesyouhavetotakealifetosaveevenmorelives.We
haveasimilarviewofjust-wartheory.Thepresidentrequiresnear-certainty
ofnocollateraldamage.Butifhebelievesitisnecessarytoact,hedoesnt
hesitate.
ThosewhospeakwithObamaaboutjihadistthoughtsaythathepossessesa
no-illusionsunderstandingoftheforcesthatdriveapocalypticviolence
amongradicalMuslims,buthehasbeencarefulaboutarticulatingthat
publicly,outofconcernthathewillexacerbateanti-Muslimxenophobia.He
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hasatragicrealistsunderstandingofsin,cowardice,andcorruption,anda
Hobbesianappreciationofhowfearshapeshumanbehavior.Andyethe
consistently,andwithapparentsincerity,professesoptimismthattheworld
isbendingtowardjustice.Heis,inaway,aHobbesianoptimist.
Video: Jeffrey Goldberg speaks with Ben Rhodes
Jeffrey Goldberg speaks to Deputy National-Security Adviser Ben Rhodes about the United States new ties
with Cuba and its impact on American foreign policy at-large.
Thecontradictionsdonotendthere.Thoughhehasareputationfor
prudence,hehasalsobeeneagertoquestionsomeofthelong-standing
assumptionsundergirdingtraditionalU.S.foreign-policythinking.Toa
remarkabledegree,heiswillingtoquestionwhyAmericasenemiesareits
enemies,orwhysomeofitsfriendsareitsfriends.Heoverthrewhalfa
centuryofbipartisanconsensusinordertoreestablishtieswithCuba.He
questionedwhytheU.S.shouldavoidsendingitsforcesintoPakistantokill
al-Qaedaleaders,andheprivatelyquestionswhyPakistan,whichhebelieves
isadisastrouslydysfunctionalcountry,shouldbeconsideredanallyofthe
U.S.atall.AccordingtoLeonPanetta,hehasquestionedwhytheU.S.should
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maintainIsraelsso-calledqualitativemilitaryedge,whichgrantsitaccessto
moresophisticatedweaponssystemsthanAmericasAraballiesreceive;but
hehasalsoquestioned,oftenharshly,therolethatAmericasSunniArab
alliesplayinfomentinganti-Americanterrorism.Heisclearlyirritatedthat
foreign-policyorthodoxycompelshimtotreatSaudiArabiaasanally.Andof
coursehedecidedearlyon,inthefaceofgreatcriticism,thathewantedto
reachouttoAmericasmostardentMiddleEasternfoe,Iran.Thenuclear
dealhestruckwithIranproves,ifnothingelse,thatObamaisnotrisk-averse.
Hehasbetglobalsecurityandhisownlegacythatoneoftheworldsleading
statesponsorsofterrorismwilladheretoanagreementtocurtailitsnuclear
program.
DROPPING BOMBS ON SOMEONE TO PROVE

THAT YOURE WILLING TO DROP BOMBS ON
SOMEONE IS JUST ABOUT THE WORST
REASON TO USE FORCE.
Itisassumed,atleastamonghiscritics,thatObamasoughttheIrandeal
becausehehasavisionofahistoricAmerican-Persianrapprochement.But
hisdesireforthenuclearagreementwasbornofpessimismasmuchasitwas
ofoptimism.TheIrandealwasneverprimarilyabouttryingtoopenanew
eraofrelationsbetweentheU.S.andIran,SusanRicetoldme.Itwasfar
morepragmaticandminimalist.Theaimwasverysimplytomakea
dangerouscountrysubstantiallylessdangerous.Noonehadanyexpectation
thatIranwouldbeamorebenignactor.
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ONCEMENTIONEDTOOBAMAascenefromTheGodfather:PartIII,in
whichMichaelCorleonecomplainsangrilyabouthisfailureto
escapethegraspoforganizedcrime.ItoldObamathattheMiddle
EastistohispresidencywhattheMobistoCorleone,andIstartedto
quotetheAlPacinoline:JustwhenIthoughtIwasout
Itpullsyoubackin,Obamasaid,completingthethought.
ThestoryofObamasencounterwiththeMiddleEastfollowsanarcof
disenchantment.Inhisfirstextendedspreeoffame,asapresidential
candidatein2008,Obamaoftenspokewithhopeabouttheregion.InBerlin
thatsummer,inaspeechto200,000adoringGermans,hesaid,Thisisthe
momentwemusthelpanswerthecallforanewdawnintheMiddleEast.
Thenextyear,aspresident,hegaveaspeechinCairomeanttoresetU.S.
relationswiththeworldsMuslims.HespokeaboutMuslimsinhisown
family,andhischildhoodyearsinIndonesia,andconfessedAmericassins
evenashecriticizedthoseintheMuslimworldwhodemonizedtheU.S.
Whatdrewthemostattention,though,washispromisetoaddresstheIsraeliPalestinianconflict,whichwasthenthoughttobethecentralanimating
concernofArabMuslims.HissympathyforthePalestiniansmovedthe
audience,butcomplicatedhisrelationswithBenjaminNetanyahu,theIsraeli
primeministerespeciallybecauseObamahadalsodecidedtobypass
JerusalemonhisfirstpresidentialvisittotheMiddleEast.
WhenIaskedObamarecentlywhathehadhopedtoaccomplishwithhis
Cairoresetspeech,hesaidthathehadbeentryingunsuccessfully,he
acknowledgedtopersuadeMuslimstomorecloselyexaminetherootsof
theirunhappiness.
Myargumentwasthis:LetsallstoppretendingthatthecauseoftheMiddle
EastsproblemsisIsrael,hetoldme.Wewanttoworktohelpachieve
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statehoodanddignityforthePalestinians,butIwashopingthatmyspeech
couldtriggeradiscussion,couldcreatespaceforMuslimstoaddressthereal
problemstheyareconfrontingproblemsofgovernance,andthefactthat
somecurrentsofIslamhavenotgonethroughareformationthatwouldhelp
peopleadapttheirreligiousdoctrinestomodernity.Mythoughtwas,Iwould
communicatethattheU.S.isnotstandinginthewayofthisprogress,thatwe
wouldhelp,inwhateverwaypossible,toadvancethegoalsofapractical,
successfulArabagendathatprovidedabetterlifeforordinarypeople.
British Prime Minister David Cameron, flanked by U.K. officials, attends dinner at the White House in January 2015.
(Pete Souza / White House)
ThroughthefirstflushoftheArabSpring,in2011,Obamacontinuedto
speakoptimisticallyabouttheMiddleEastsfuture,comingascloseashe
everwouldtoembracingtheso-calledfreedomagendaofGeorgeW.Bush,
whichwascharacterizedinpartbythebeliefthatdemocraticvaluescouldbe
implantedintheMiddleEast.HeequatedprotestersinTunisiaandTahrir
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SquarewithRosaParksandthepatriotsofBoston.
Afterdecadesofacceptingtheworldasitisintheregion,wehaveachance
topursuetheworldasitshouldbe,hesaidinaspeechatthetime.The
UnitedStatessupportsasetofuniversalrights.Andtheserightsincludefree
speech,thefreedomofpeacefulassembly,thefreedomofreligion,equality
formenandwomenundertheruleoflaw,andtherighttochooseyourown
leadersOursupportfortheseprinciplesisnotasecondaryinterest.
Butoverthenextthreeyears,astheArabSpringgaveupitsearlypromise,
andbrutalityanddysfunctionoverwhelmedtheMiddleEast,thepresident
grewdisillusioned.SomeofhisdeepestdisappointmentsconcernMiddle
Easternleadersthemselves.BenjaminNetanyahuisinhisowncategory:
ObamahaslongbelievedthatNetanyahucouldbringaboutatwo-state
solutionthatwouldprotectIsraelsstatusasaJewish-majoritydemocracy,
butistoofearfulandpoliticallyparalyzedtodoso.Obamahasalsonothad
muchpatienceforNetanyahuandotherMiddleEasternleaderswhoquestion
hisunderstandingoftheregion.InoneofNetanyahusmeetingswiththe
president,theIsraeliprimeministerlaunchedintosomethingofalecture
aboutthedangersofthebrutalregioninwhichhelives,andObamafeltthat
Netanyahuwasbehavinginacondescendingfashion,andwasalsoavoiding
thesubjectathand:peacenegotiations.Finally,thepresidentinterruptedthe
primeminister:Bibi,youhavetounderstandsomething,hesaid.Imthe
AfricanAmericansonofasinglemother,andIlivehere,inthishouse.Ilive
intheWhiteHouse.ImanagedtogetelectedpresidentoftheUnitedStates.
YouthinkIdontunderstandwhatyouretalkingabout,butIdo.Other
leadersalsofrustratehimimmensely.Earlyon,ObamasawRecepTayyip
Erdoan,thepresidentofTurkey,asthesortofmoderateMuslimleaderwho
wouldbridgethedividebetweenEastandWestbutObamanowconsiders
himafailureandanauthoritarian,onewhorefusestousehisenormousarmy
tobringstabilitytoSyria.AndonthesidelinesofaNATOsummitinWalesin
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2014,ObamapulledasideKingAbdullahIIofJordan.Obamasaidhehad
heardthatAbdullahhadcomplainedtofriendsintheU.S.Congressabouthis
leadership,andtoldthekingthatifhehadcomplaints,heshouldraisethem
directly.Thekingdeniedthathehadspokenillofhim.
Inrecentdays,thepresidenthastakentojokingprivately,AllIneedinthe
MiddleEastisafewsmartautocrats.Obamahasalwayshadafondnessfor
pragmatic,emotionallycontainedtechnocrats,tellingaides,Ifonly
everyonecouldbeliketheScandinavians,thiswouldallbeeasy.
TheunravelingoftheArabSpringdarkenedthepresidentsviewofwhatthe
U.S.couldachieveintheMiddleEast,andmadehimrealizehowmuchthe
chaostherewasdistractingfromotherpriorities.Thepresidentrecognized
duringthecourseoftheArabSpringthattheMiddleEastwasconsumingus,
JohnBrennan,whoservedinObamasfirsttermashischiefcounterterrorism
adviser,toldmerecently.
ButwhatsealedObamasfatalisticviewwasthefailureofhis
administrationsinterventioninLibya,in2011.Thatinterventionwasmeant
topreventthecountrysthen-dictator,MuammarQaddafi,fromslaughtering
thepeopleofBenghazi,ashewasthreateningtodo.Obamadidnotwantto
jointhefight;hewascounseledbyJoeBidenandhisfirst-termsecretaryof
defenseRobertGates,amongothers,tosteerclear.Butastrongfaction
withinthenational-securityteamSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonand
SusanRice,whowasthentheambassadortotheUnitedNations,alongwith
SamanthaPower,BenRhodes,andAntonyBlinken,whowasthenBidens
national-securityadviserlobbiedhardtoprotectBenghazi,andprevailed.
(Biden,whoisacerbicaboutClintonsforeign-policyjudgment,hassaid
privately,HillaryjustwantstobeGoldaMeir.)Americanbombsfell,the
peopleofBenghaziweresparedfromwhatmayormaynothavebeena
massacre,andQaddafiwascapturedandexecuted.
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ButObamasaystodayoftheintervention,Itdidntwork.TheU.S.,he
believes,plannedtheLibyaoperationcarefullyandyetthecountryisstilla
disaster.
Why,givenwhatseemstobethepresidentsnaturalreticencetowardgetting
militarilyensnarledwhereAmericannationalsecurityisnotdirectlyatstake,
didheaccepttherecommendationofhismoreactivistadviserstointervene?
ThesocialorderinLibyahasbrokendown,Obamasaid,explaininghis
thinkingatthetime.YouhavemassiveprotestsagainstQaddafi.Youvegot
tribaldivisionsinsideofLibya.Benghaziisafocalpointfortheopposition
regime.AndQaddafiismarchinghisarmytowardBenghazi,andhehassaid,
Wewillkillthemlikerats.
Now,optiononewouldbetodonothing,andthereweresomeinmy
administrationwhosaid,astragicastheLibyansituationmaybe,itsnotour
problem.ThewayIlookedatitwasthatitwouldbeourproblemif,infact,
completechaosandcivilwarbrokeoutinLibya.Butthisisnotsoatthecore
ofU.S.intereststhatitmakessenseforustounilaterallystrikeagainstthe
Qaddafiregime.Atthatpoint,youvegotEuropeandanumberofGulf
countrieswhodespiseQaddafi,orareconcernedonahumanitarianbasis,
whoarecallingforaction.Butwhathasbeenahabitoverthelastseveral
decadesinthesecircumstancesispeoplepushingustoactbutthenshowing
anunwillingnesstoputanyskininthegame.
Freeriders?,Iinterjected.
Freeriders,hesaid,andcontinued.SowhatIsaidatthatpointwas,we
shouldactaspartofaninternationalcoalition.Butbecausethisisnotatthe
coreofourinterests,weneedtogetaUNmandate;weneedEuropeansand
Gulfcountriestobeactivelyinvolvedinthecoalition;wewillapplythe
militarycapabilitiesthatareuniquetous,butweexpectotherstocarrytheir
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weight.Andweworkedwithourdefenseteamstoensurethatwecould
executeastrategywithoutputtingbootsonthegroundandwithoutalongtermmilitarycommitmentinLibya.
SoweactuallyexecutedthisplanaswellasIcouldhaveexpected:Wegota
UNmandate,webuiltacoalition,itcostus$1billionwhich,whenitcomes
tomilitaryoperations,isverycheap.Weavertedlarge-scalecivilian
casualties,wepreventedwhatalmostsurelywouldhavebeenaprolonged
andbloodycivilconflict.Anddespiteallthat,Libyaisamess.
Messisthepresidentsdiplomaticterm;privately,hecallsLibyaashit
show,inpartbecauseitssubsequentlybecomeanISIShavenonethathe
hasalreadytargetedwithairstrikes.Itbecameashitshow,Obamabelieves,
forreasonsthathadlesstodowithAmericanincompetencethanwiththe
passivityofAmericasalliesandwiththeobduratepoweroftribalism.
WhenIgobackandIaskmyselfwhatwentwrong,Obamasaid,theres
roomforcriticism,becauseIhadmorefaithintheEuropeans,givenLibyas
proximity,beinginvestedinthefollow-up,hesaid.HenotedthatNicolas
Sarkozy,theFrenchpresident,losthisjobthefollowingyear.Andhesaidthat
BritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronsoonstoppedpayingattention,
becomingdistractedbyarangeofotherthings.OfFrance,hesaid,
Sarkozywantedtotrumpettheflightshewastakingintheaircampaign,
despitethefactthatwehadwipedoutalltheairdefensesandessentiallyset
uptheentireinfrastructurefortheintervention.Thissortofbraggingwas
fine,Obamasaid,becauseitallowedtheU.S.topurchaseFrances
involvementinawaythatmadeitlessexpensiveforusandlessriskyforus.
Inotherwords,givingFranceextracreditinexchangeforlessriskandcostto
theUnitedStateswasausefultrade-offexceptthatfromtheperspectiveof
alotofthefolksintheforeign-policyestablishment,well,thatwasterrible.If
weregoingtodosomething,obviouslywevegottobeupfront,andnobody
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elseissharinginthespotlight.
ObamaalsoblamedinternalLibyandynamics.Thedegreeoftribaldivision
inLibyawasgreaterthanouranalystshadexpected.Andourabilitytohave
anykindofstructuretherethatwecouldinteractwithandstarttrainingand
startprovidingresourcesbrokedownveryquickly.
LibyaprovedtohimthattheMiddleEastwasbestavoided.Thereisnoway
weshouldcommittogoverningtheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,he
recentlytoldaformercolleaguefromtheSenate.Thatwouldbeabasic,
fundamentalmistake.
RESIDENTOBAMADIDNOTcomeintoofficepreoccupiedbythe
MiddleEast.HeisthefirstchildofthePacifictobecome
presidentborninHawaii,raisedthereand,forfouryears,in
IndonesiaandheisfixatedonturningAmericasattentionto
Asia.ForObama,Asiarepresentsthefuture.AfricaandLatinAmerica,inhis
view,deservefarmoreU.S.attentionthantheyreceive.Europe,aboutwhich
heisunromantic,isasourceofglobalstabilitythatrequires,tohisoccasional
annoyance,Americanhand-holding.AndtheMiddleEastisaregiontobe
avoidedonethat,thankstoAmericasenergyrevolution,willsoonbeof
negligiblerelevancetotheU.S.economy.
ItisnotoilbutanotheroftheMiddleEastsexports,terrorism,thatshapes
Obamasunderstandingofhisresponsibilitiesthere.Earlyin2014,Obamas
intelligenceadviserstoldhimthatISISwasofmarginalimportance.According
toadministrationofficials,GeneralLloydAustin,thenthecommanderof
CentralCommand,whichoverseesU.S.militaryoperationsintheMiddle
East,toldtheWhiteHousethattheIslamicStatewasaflashinthepan.
ThisanalysisledObama,inaninterviewwithTheNewYorker,todescribethe
constellationofjihadistgroupsinIraqandSyriaasterrorismsjayveeteam.
(AspokesmanforAustintoldme,AtnotimehasGeneralAustinever
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consideredISILaflashinthepanphenomenon.)
MESS IS THE PRESIDENTS DIPLOMATIC TERM

FOR WHAT U.S. INTERVENTION LEFT BEHIND
IN LIBYA; PRIVATELY, HE CALLS IT A SHIT
SHOW.
Butbylatespringof2014,afterISIStookthenorthern-IraqcityofMosul,he
cametobelievethatU.S.intelligencehadfailedtoappreciatetheseverityof
thethreatandtheinadequaciesoftheIraqiarmy,andhisviewshifted.After
ISISbeheadedthreeAmericanciviliansinSyria,itbecameobvioustoObama
thatdefeatingthegroupwasofmoreimmediateurgencytotheU.S.than
overthrowingBasharal-Assad.
AdvisersrecallthatObamawouldciteapivotalmomentinTheDarkKnight,
the2008Batmanmovie,tohelpexplainnotonlyhowheunderstoodtherole
ofISIS,buthowheunderstoodthelargerecosysteminwhichitgrew.Theres
asceneinthebeginninginwhichthegangleadersofGothamaremeeting,
thepresidentwouldsay.Thesearemenwhohadthecitydividedup.They
werethugs,buttherewasakindoforder.Everyonehadhisturf.Andthenthe
Jokercomesinandlightsthewholecityonfire.ISIListheJoker.Ithasthe
capacitytosetthewholeregiononfire.Thatswhywehavetofightit.
TheriseoftheIslamicStatedeepenedObamasconvictionthattheMiddle
Eastcouldnotbefixednotonhiswatch,andnotforagenerationtocome.
NARAINYWEDNESDAYinmid-November,PresidentObama
appearedonastageattheAsia-PacificEconomicCooperation
(APEC)summitinManilawithJackMa,thefounderofthe
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Chinesee-commercecompanyAlibaba,anda31-year-old
FilipinainventornamedAisaMijeno.TheballroomwascrowdedwithAsian
CEOs,Americanbusinessleaders,andgovernmentofficialsfromacrossthe
region.Obama,whowasgreetedwarmly,firstdeliveredinformalremarks
frombehindapodium,mainlyaboutthethreatofclimatechange.
Obamamadenomentionofthesubjectpreoccupyingmuchoftherestofthe
worldtheISISattacksinParisfivedaysearlier,whichhadkilled130people.
ObamahadarrivedinManilathedaybeforefromaG20summitheldin
Antalya,Turkey.TheParisattackshadbeenamaintopicofconversationin
Antalya,whereObamaheldaparticularlycontentiouspressconferenceon
thesubject.
ThetravelingWhiteHousepresscorpswasunrelenting:Isntittimeforyour
strategytochange?onereporterasked.ThiswasfollowedbyCouldIask
youtoaddressyourcriticswhosaythatyourreluctancetoenteranother
MiddleEastwar,andyourpreferenceofdiplomacyoverusingthemilitary,
makestheUnitedStatesweakerandemboldensourenemies?Andthen
camethisimperishablequestion,fromaCNNreporter:Ifyoullforgivethe
languagewhycantwetakeoutthesebastards?Whichwasfollowedby
Doyouthinkyoureallyunderstandthisenemywellenoughtodefeatthem
andtoprotectthehomeland?
Asthequestionsunspooled,Obamabecameprogressivelymoreirritated.He
describedhisISISstrategyatlength,buttheonlytimeheexhibitedanemotion
otherthandisdainwaswhenheaddressedanemergingcontroversyabout
Americasrefugeepolicy.Republicangovernorsandpresidentialcandidates
hadsuddenlytakentodemandingthattheUnitedStatesblockSyrian
refugeesfromcomingtoAmerica.TedCruzhadproposedacceptingonly
ChristianSyrians.ChrisChristiehadsaidthatallrefugees,including
orphansunder5,shouldbebannedfromentryuntilpropervetting
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procedureshadbeenputinplace.
ThisrhetoricappearedtofrustrateObamaimmensely.WhenIhearfolks
saythat,well,maybeweshouldjustadmittheChristiansbutnotthe
Muslims;whenIhearpoliticalleaderssuggestingthattherewouldbea
religioustestforwhichpersonwhosfleeingfromawar-torncountryis
admitted,Obamatoldtheassembledreporters,thatsnotAmerican.
Thatsnotwhoweare.Wedonthavereligiousteststoourcompassion.
ARENT THE SAUDIS YOUR FRIENDS? THE

PRIME MINISTER ASKED. OBAMA SMILED.
ITS COMPLICATED.
AirForceOnedepartedAntalyaandarrived10hourslaterinManila.Thats
whenthepresidentsadviserscametounderstand,inthewordsofone
official,thateveryonebackhomehadlosttheirminds.SusanRice,trying
tocomprehendtherisinganxiety,searchedherhoteltelevisioninvainfor
CNN,findingonlytheBBCandFoxNews.Shetoggledbetweenthetwo,
lookingforthemean,shetoldpeopleonthetrip.
Later,thepresidentwouldsaythathehadfailedtofullyappreciatethefear
manyAmericanswereexperiencingaboutthepossibilityofaParis-style
attackintheU.S.Greatdistance,afranticschedule,andthejet-laghazethat
envelopsaglobe-spanningpresidentialtripwereworkingagainsthim.Buthe
hasneverbelievedthatterrorismposesathreattoAmericacommensurate
withthefearitgenerates.Evenduringtheperiodin2014whenISISwas
executingitsAmericancaptivesinSyria,hisemotionswereincheck.Valerie
Jarrett,Obamasclosestadviser,toldhimpeoplewereworriedthatthegroup
wouldsoontakeitsbeheadingcampaigntotheU.S.Theyrenotcoming
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heretochopourheadsoff,hereassuredher.Obamafrequentlyremindshis
staffthatterrorismtakesfarfewerlivesinAmericathanhandguns,car
accidents,andfallsinbathtubsdo.Severalyearsago,heexpressedtomehis
admirationforIsraelisresilienceinthefaceofconstantterrorism,anditis
clearthathewouldliketoseeresiliencereplacepanicinAmericansociety.
Nevertheless,hisadvisersarefightingaconstantrearguardactiontokeep
Obamafromplacingterrorisminwhatheconsidersitsproperperspective,
outofconcernthathewillseeminsensitivetothefearsoftheAmerican
people.
Obama and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry look on

during a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan at the World Climate Change Conference 2015
(COP21), in Paris in December. (Kevin Lamarque /
Reuters)
ThefrustrationamongObamasadvisersspillsoverintothePentagonand
theStateDepartment.JohnKerry,forone,seemsmorealarmedaboutISIS
thanthepresidentdoes.Recently,whenIaskedthesecretaryofstatea
generalquestionistheMiddleEaststillimportanttotheU.S.?heanswered
bytalkingexclusivelyaboutISIS.Thisisathreattoeverybodyintheworld,
hesaid,agroupovertlycommittedtodestroyingpeopleintheWestandin
theMiddleEast.Imaginewhatwouldhappenifwedontstandandfight
them,ifwedontleadacoalitionaswearedoing,bytheway.Ifwedidntdo
that,youcouldhavealliesandfriendsofoursfall.Youcouldhaveamassive
migrationintoEuropethatdestroysEurope,leadstothepuredestructionof
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Europe,endstheEuropeanproject,andeveryonerunsforcoverandyouve
gotthe1930salloveragain,withnationalismandfascismandotherthings
breakingout.Ofcoursewehaveaninterestinthis,ahugeinterestinthis.
WhenInotedtoKerrythatthepresidentsrhetoricdoesntmatchhis,he
said,PresidentObamaseesallofthis,buthedoesntginitupintothiskind
ofhethinksweareontrack.Hehasescalatedhisefforts.Buthesnottrying
tocreatehysteriaIthinkthepresidentisalwaysinclinedtotrytokeep
thingsonanappropriateequilibrium.Irespectthat.
Obamamodulateshisdiscussionofterrorismforseveralreasons:Heis,by
nature,Spockian.Andhebelievesthatamisplacedword,orafrightened
look,oranill-consideredhyperbolicclaim,couldtipthecountryintopanic.
Thesortofpanicheworriesaboutmostisthetypethatwouldmanifestitself
inanti-MuslimxenophobiaorinachallengetoAmericanopennessandtothe
constitutionalorder
Thepresidentalsogetsfrustratedthatterrorismkeepsswampinghislarger
agenda,particularlyasitrelatestorebalancingAmericasglobalpriorities.
Foryears,thepivottoAsiahasbeenaparamountpriorityofhis.Americas
economicfutureliesinAsia,hebelieves,andthechallengeposedbyChinas
riserequiresconstantattention.Fromhisearliestdaysinoffice,Obamahas
beenfocusedonrebuildingthesometimes-threadbaretiesbetweentheU.S.
anditsAsiantreatypartners,andheisperpetuallyonthehuntfor
opportunitiestodrawotherAsiannationsintotheU.S.orbit.Hisdramatic
openingtoBurmawasonesuchopportunity;Vietnamandtheentire
constellationofSoutheastAsiancountriesfearfulofChinesedomination
presentedothers.
InManila,atAPEC,Obamawasdeterminedtokeeptheconversationfocused
onthisagenda,andnotonwhatheviewedasthecontainablechallenge
presentedbyISIS.Obamassecretaryofdefense,AshtonCarter,toldmenot
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longagothatObamahasmaintainedhisfocusonAsiaevenasSyriaandother
MiddleEasternconflictscontinuetoflare.Obamabelieves,Cartersaid,that
AsiaisthepartoftheworldofgreatestconsequencetotheAmericanfuture,
andthatnopresidentcantakehiseyeoffofthis.Headded,Heconsistently
asks,eveninthemidstofeverythingelsethatsgoingon,Wherearewein
theAsia-Pacificrebalance?Whereareweintermsofresources?Hesbeen
extremelyconsistentaboutthat,evenintimesofMiddleEasttension.
AfterObamafinishedhispresentationonclimatechange,hejoinedMaand
Mijeno,whohadseatedthemselvesonnearbyarmchairs,whereObamawas
preparingtointerviewtheminthemannerofadaytimetalk-showhostan
approachthatseemedtoinduceamomentaryboutofstatus-inversionvertigo
inanaudiencenotaccustomedtosuchbehaviorintheirownleaders.Obama
beganbyaskingMaaquestionaboutclimatechange.Ma,unsurprisingly,
agreedwithObamathatitwasaveryimportantissue.ThenObamaturnedto
Mijeno.AlaboratoryoperatinginthehiddenrecessesoftheWestWingcould
nothavefashionedapersonmoreexpertlydesignedtoappealtoObamas
wonkishenthusiasmsthanMijeno,ayoungengineerwho,withherbrother,
hadinventedalampthatissomehowpoweredbysaltwater.
Justtobeclear,Aisa,sowithsomesaltwater,thedevicethatyouvesetup
canprovideamIright?abouteighthoursoflighting?,Obamaasked.
Eighthoursoflighting,sheresponded.
Obama:Andthelampis$20
Mijeno:Around$20.
IthinkAisaisaperfectexampleofwhatwereseeinginalotofcountries
youngentrepreneurscomingupwithleapfrogtechnologies,inthesameways
thatinlargeportionsofAsiaandAfrica,theoldlandlinephonesnevergotset
up,Obamasaid,becausethoseareasjumpedstraighttomobilephones.
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ObamaencouragedJackMatofundherwork.Sheswon,bytheway,alotof
prizesandgottenalotofattention,sothisisnotlikeoneofthoseinfomercials
whereyouorderit,andyoucantmakethethingwork,hesaid,tolaughter.
Thenextday,aboardAirForceOneenroutetoKualaLumpur,Imentionedto
ObamathatheseemedgenuinelyhappytobeonstagewithMaandMijeno,
andthenIpivotedawayfromAsia,askinghimifanythingabouttheMiddle
Eastmakeshimhappy.
Rightnow,Idontthinkthatanybodycanbefeelinggoodaboutthe
situationintheMiddleEast,hesaid.Youhavecountriesthatarefailingto
provideprosperityandopportunityfortheirpeople.Youvegotaviolent,
extremistideology,orideologies,thatareturbochargedthroughsocial
media.Youvegotcountriesthathaveveryfewcivictraditions,sothatas
autocraticregimesstartfraying,theonlyorganizingprinciplesaresectarian.
Hewenton,ContrastthatwithSoutheastAsia,whichstillhashuge
problemsenormouspoverty,corruptionbutisfilledwithstriving,
ambitious,energeticpeoplewhoareeverysingledayscratchingandclawing
tobuildbusinessesandgeteducationandfindjobsandbuildinfrastructure.
Thecontrastisprettystark.
InAsia,aswellasinLatinAmericaandAfrica,Obamasays,heseesyoung
peopleyearningforself-improvement,modernity,education,andmaterial
wealth.
TheyarenotthinkingabouthowtokillAmericans,hesays.Whattheyre
thinkingaboutisHowdoIgetabettereducation?HowdoIcreatesomethingof
value?
HethenmadeanobservationthatIcametorealizewasrepresentativeofhis
bleakest,mostvisceralunderstandingoftheMiddleEasttodaynotthesort
ofunderstandingthataWhiteHousestillorientedaroundthemesofhope
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andchangemightchoosetoadvertise.Ifwerenottalkingtothem,hesaid,
referringtoyoungAsiansandAfricansandLatinAmericans,becausethe
onlythingweredoingisfiguringouthowtodestroyorcordonofforcontrol
themalicious,nihilistic,violentpartsofhumanity,thenweremissingthe
boat.
Obamascriticsarguethatheisineffectiveincordoningofftheviolent
nihilistsofradicalIslambecausehedoesntunderstandthethreat.Hedoes
resistrefractingradicalIslamthroughtheclashofcivilizationsprism
popularizedbythelatepoliticalscientistSamuelHuntington.Butthisis
because,heandhisadvisersargue,hedoesnotwanttoenlargetheranksof
theenemy.ThegoalisnottoforceaHuntingtontemplateontothis
conflict,saidJohnBrennan,theCIAdirector.
BothFranoisHollandeandDavidCameronhavespokenaboutthethreatof
radicalIslaminmoreHuntingtonesqueterms,andIveheardthatbothmen
wishObamawouldusemore-directlanguageindiscussingthethreat.WhenI
mentionedthistoObamahesaid,HollandeandCameronhaveused
phrases,likeradicalIslam,thatwehavenotusedonaregularbasisasourway
oftargetingterrorism.ButIveneverhadaconversationwhentheysaid,
Man,howcomeyourenotusingthisphrasethewayyouhearRepublicans
sayit?ObamasayshehasdemandedthatMuslimleadersdomoreto
eliminatethethreatofviolentfundamentalism.ItisveryclearwhatI
mean,hetoldme,whichisthatthereisaviolent,radical,fanatical,
nihilisticinterpretationofIslambyafactionatinyfactionwithinthe
Muslimcommunitythatisourenemy,andthathastobedefeated.
Hethenofferedacritiquethatsoundedmoreinlinewiththerhetoricof
CameronandHollande.ThereisalsotheneedforIslamasawholeto
challengethatinterpretationofIslam,toisolateit,andtoundergoavigorous
discussionwithintheircommunityabouthowIslamworksaspartofa
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peaceful,modernsociety,hesaid.Butheadded,Idonotpersuade
peaceful,tolerantMuslimstoengageinthatdebateifImnotsensitiveto
theirconcernthattheyarebeingtaggedwithabroadbrush.
Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Washington, D.C., April 2015 (Pete Souza / White House)
Inprivateencounterswithotherworldleaders,Obamahasarguedthatthere
willbenocomprehensivesolutiontoIslamistterrorismuntilIslamreconciles
itselftomodernityandundergoessomeofthereformsthathavechanged
Christianity.
Thoughhehasargued,controversially,thattheMiddleEastsconflictsdate
backmillennia,healsobelievesthattheintensifiedMuslimfuryofrecent
yearswasencouragedbycountriesconsideredfriendsoftheU.S.Ina
meetingduringAPECwithMalcolmTurnbull,thenewprimeministerof
Australia,ObamadescribedhowhehaswatchedIndonesiagraduallymove
fromarelaxed,syncretisticIslamtoamorefundamentalist,unforgiving
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interpretation;largenumbersofIndonesianwomen,heobserved,havenow
adoptedthehijab,theMuslimheadcovering.
Why,Turnbullasked,wasthishappening?
Because,Obamaanswered,theSaudisandotherGulfArabshavefunneled
money,andlargenumbersofimamsandteachers,intothecountry.Inthe
1990s,theSaudisheavilyfundedWahhabistmadrassas,seminariesthat
teachthefundamentalistversionofIslamfavoredbytheSaudirulingfamily,
ObamatoldTurnbull.Today,IslaminIndonesiaismuchmoreArabin
orientationthanitwaswhenhelivedthere,hesaid.
ArenttheSaudisyourfriends?,Turnbullasked.
Obamasmiled.Itscomplicated,hesaid.
ObamaspatiencewithSaudiArabiahasalwaysbeenlimited.Inhisfirst
foreign-policycommentaryofnote,that2002speechattheantiwarrallyin
Chicago,hesaid,Youwantafight,PresidentBush?Letsfighttomakesure
ourso-calledalliesintheMiddleEasttheSaudisandtheEgyptiansstop
oppressingtheirownpeople,andsuppressingdissent,andtolerating
corruptionandinequality.IntheWhiteHousethesedays,oneoccasionally
hearsObamasNationalSecurityCouncilofficialspointedlyreminding
visitorsthatthelargemajorityof9/11hijackerswerenotIranian,butSaudi
andObamahimselfrailsagainstSaudiArabiasstate-sanctionedmisogyny,
arguinginprivatethatacountrycannotfunctioninthemodernworldwhen
itisrepressinghalfofitspopulation.Inmeetingswithforeignleaders,
Obamahassaid,Youcangaugethesuccessofasocietybyhowittreatsits
women.
HisfrustrationwiththeSaudisinformshisanalysisofMiddleEasternpower
politics.AtonepointIobservedtohimthatheislesslikelythanprevious
presidentstoaxiomaticallysidewithSaudiArabiainitsdisputewithits
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archrival,Iran.Hedidntdisagree.
Iran,since1979,hasbeenanenemyoftheUnitedStates,andhasengaged
instate-sponsoredterrorism,isagenuinethreattoIsraelandmanyofour
allies,andengagesinallkindsofdestructivebehavior,thepresidentsaid.
Andmyviewhasneverbeenthatweshouldthrowourtraditionalallies
theSaudisoverboardinfavorofIran.
ButhewentontosaythattheSaudisneedtosharetheMiddleEastwith
theirIranianfoes.ThecompetitionbetweentheSaudisandtheIranians
whichhashelpedtofeedproxywarsandchaosinSyriaandIraqandYemen
requiresustosaytoourfriendsaswellastotheIraniansthattheyneedto
findaneffectivewaytosharetheneighborhoodandinstitutesomesortof
coldpeace,hesaid.AnapproachthatsaidtoourfriendsYouareright,Iran
isthesourceofallproblems,andwewillsupportyouindealingwithIran
wouldessentiallymeanthatasthesesectarianconflictscontinuetorageand
ourGulfpartners,ourtraditionalfriends,donothavetheabilitytoputoutthe
flamesontheirownordecisivelywinontheirown,andwouldmeanthatwe
havetostartcominginandusingourmilitarypowertosettlescores.Andthat
wouldbeintheinterestneitheroftheUnitedStatesnoroftheMiddleEast.
OneofthemostdestructiveforcesintheMiddleEast,Obamabelieves,is
tribalismaforcenopresidentcanneutralize.Tribalism,mademanifestin
thereversiontosect,creed,clan,andvillagebythedesperatecitizensof
failingstates,isthesourceofmuchoftheMuslimMiddleEastsproblems,
anditisanothersourceofhisfatalism.Obamahasdeeprespectforthe
destructiveresilienceoftribalismpartofhismemoir,DreamsFromMy
Father,concernsthewayinwhichtribalisminpost-colonialKenyahelped
ruinhisfatherslifewhichgoessomedistanceinexplainingwhyheisso
fastidiousaboutavoidingentanglementsintribalconflicts.
ItisliterallyinmyDNAtobesuspiciousoftribalism,hetoldme.I
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understandthetribalimpulse,andacknowledgethepoweroftribaldivision.
Ivebeennavigatingtribaldivisionsmywholelife.Intheend,itsthesource
ofalotofdestructiveacts.
HILEFLYINGTOKualaLumpurwiththepresident,Irecalleda
passingreferencehehadoncemadetomeaboutthe
Hobbesianargumentforstronggovernmentasanantidote
totheunforgivingstateofnature.WhenObamalooksat
swathesoftheMiddleEast,Hobbesswarofallagainstalliswhathesees.
IhavearecognitionthatusservingastheLeviathanclampsdownandtames
someoftheseimpulses,Obamahadsaid.SoItriedtoreopenthis
conversationwithanunfortunatelyprolixquestionabout,amongother
things,theHobbesiannotionthatpeopleorganizethemselvesinto
collectivestostaveofftheirsupremefear,whichisdeath.
BenRhodesandJoshuaEarnest,theWhiteHousespokesman,whowere
seatedonacouchtothesideofObamasdeskonAirForceOne,couldbarely
suppresstheiramusementatmydiscursiveness.Ipausedandsaid,IbetifI
askedthatinapressconferencemycolleagueswouldjustthrowmeoutofthe
room.
Iwouldbereallyintoit,Obamasaid,buteverybodyelsewouldberolling
theireyes.
Rhodesinterjected:Whycantwegetthebastards?Thatquestion,theone
puttothepresidentbytheCNNreporteratthepressconferenceinTurkey,
hadbecomeatopicofsardonicconversationduringthetrip.
Iturnedtothepresident:Well,yeah,andalso,whycantwegetthe
bastards?
Hetookthefirstquestion.
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Look,Iamnotoftheviewthathumanbeingsareinherentlyevil,hesaid.I
believethattheresmoregoodthanbadinhumanity.Andifyoulookatthe
trajectoryofhistory,Iamoptimistic.
Ibelievethatoverall,humanityhasbecomelessviolent,moretolerant,
healthier,betterfed,moreempathetic,moreabletomanagedifference.But
itshugelyuneven.Andwhathasbeenclearthroughoutthe20thand21st
centuriesisthattheprogresswemakeinsocialorderandtamingourbaser
impulsesandsteadyingourfearscanbereversedveryquickly.Socialorder
startsbreakingdownifpeopleareunderprofoundstress.Thenthedefault
positionistribeus/them,ahostilitytowardtheunfamiliarortheunknown.
Hecontinued,Rightnow,acrosstheglobe,youreseeingplacesthatare
undergoingseverestressbecauseofglobalization,becauseofthecollisionof
culturesbroughtaboutbytheInternetandsocialmedia,becauseofscarcities
someofwhichwillbeattributabletoclimatechangeoverthenextseveral
decadesbecauseofpopulationgrowth.Andinthoseplaces,theMiddleEast
beingExhibitA,thedefaultpositionforalotoffolksistoorganizetightlyin
thetribeandtopushbackorstrikeoutagainstthosewhoaredifferent.
AgrouplikeISIListhedistillationofeveryworstimpulsealongtheselines.
Thenotionthatweareasmallgroupthatdefinesourselvesprimarilybythe
degreetowhichwecankillotherswhoarenotlikeus,andattemptingto
imposearigidorthodoxythatproducesnothing,thatcelebratesnothing,that
reallyiscontrarytoeverybitofhumanprogressitindicatesthedegreeto
whichthatkindofmentalitycanstilltakerootandgainadherentsinthe21st
century.
Soyourappreciationfortribalismspowermakesyouwanttostayaway?,I
asked.Inotherwords,whenpeoplesayWhydontyoujustgogetthe
bastards?,youstepback?
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Wehavetodeterminethebesttoolstorollbackthosekindsofattitudes,he
said.Therearegoingtobetimeswhereeitherbecauseitsnotadirectthreat
tousorbecausewejustdonthavethetoolsinourtoolkittohaveahuge
impactthat,tragically,wehavetorefrainfromjumpinginwithbothfeet.
IaskedObamawhetherhewouldhavesenttheMarinestoRwandain1994
tostopthegenocideasitwashappening,hadhebeenpresidentatthetime.
Giventhespeedwithwhichthekillingtookplace,andhowlongittakesto
crankupthemachineryoftheU.S.government,Iunderstandwhywedidnot
actfastenough,hesaid.Now,weshouldlearnfromthat.Iactuallythink
thatRwandaisaninterestingtestcasebecauseitspossiblenotguaranteed,
butitspossiblethatthiswasasituationwherethequickapplicationofforce
mighthavebeenenough.
HerelatedthistoSyria:Ironically,itsprobablyeasiertomakeanargument
thatarelativelysmallforceinsertedquicklywithinternationalsupportwould
haveresultedinavertinggenocide[moresuccessfullyinRwanda]thanin
Syriarightnow,wherethedegreetowhichthevariousgroupsarearmedand
hardenedfightersandaresupportedbyawholehostofexternalactorswitha
lotofresourcesrequiresamuchlargercommitmentofforces.
BAMA-ADMINISTRATIONOFFICIALSARGUEthathehasa
comprehensibleapproachtofightingterrorism:adroneair
force,SpecialForcesraids,aclandestineCIA-aidedarmyof
10,000rebelsbattlinginSyria.SowhydoesObamastumble
whenexplainingtotheAmericanpeoplethathe,too,caresaboutterrorism?
TheTurkeypressconference,Itoldhim,wasamomentforyouasa
politiciantosay,Yeah,Ihatethebastardstoo,andbytheway,Iamtaking
outthebastards.Theeasythingtodowouldhavebeentoreassure
Americansinvisceraltermsthathewillkillthepeoplewhowanttokillthem.
Doeshefearaknee-jerkreactioninthedirectionofanotherMiddleEast
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invasion?OrishejustinalterablySpockian?
Everypresidenthasstrengthsandweaknesses,heanswered.Andthereis
nodoubtthattherearetimeswhereIhavenotbeenattentiveenoughto
feelingsandemotionsandpoliticsincommunicatingwhatweredoingand
howweredoingit.
ButforAmericatobesuccessfulinleadingtheworld,hecontinued,I
believethatwehavetoavoidbeingsimplistic.Ithinkwehavetobuild
resilienceandmakesurethatourpoliticaldebatesaregroundedinreality.
ItsnotthatIdontappreciatethevalueoftheaterinpolitical
communications;itsthatthehabitswethemedia,politicianshavegotten
into,andhowwetalkabouttheseissues,aresodetachedsooftenfromwhat
weneedtobedoingthatformetosatisfythecablenewshype-festwouldlead
tousmakingworseandworsedecisionsovertime.
Obama with Jack Ma, the chairman of Alibaba, at the APEC summit in the Phillippines last Novemberdays after
ISIS killed 130 people in Paris (Aaron Favila / AP)
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AsAirForceOnebeganitsdescenttowardKualaLumpur,thepresident
mentionedthesuccessfulU.S.-ledefforttostoptheEbolaepidemicinWest
Africaasapositiveexampleofsteady,nonhystericalmanagementofa
terrifyingcrisis.
DuringthecoupleofmonthsinwhicheverybodywassureEbolawasgoing
todestroytheEarthandtherewas24/7coverageofEbola,ifIhadfedthe
panicorinanywaystrayedfromHerearethefacts,hereswhatneedstobe
done,hereshowwerehandlingit,thelikelihoodofyougettingEbolaisvery
slim,andhereswhatweneedtodobothdomesticallyandoverseastostamp
outthisepidemic,thenmaybepeoplewouldhavesaidObamaistaking
thisasseriouslyasheneedstobe.Butfeedingthepanicbyoverreacting
couldhaveshutdowntraveltoandfromthreeAfricancountriesthatwere
alreadycripplinglypoor,inwaysthatmighthavedestroyedtheireconomies
whichwouldlikelyhavemeant,amongotherthings,arecurrenceofEbola.
Headded,Itwouldhavealsomeantthatwemighthavewastedahuge
amountofresourcesinourpublic-healthsystemsthatneedtobedevotedto
fluvaccinationsandotherthingsthatactuallykillpeopleinlargenumbersin
America.
Theplanelanded.Thepresident,leaningbackinhisofficechairwithhis
jacketoffandhistieaskew,didnotseemtonotice.Outside,onthetarmac,I
couldseethatwhatappearedtobealargeportionoftheMalaysianArmed
Forceshadassembledtowelcomehim.Ashecontinuedtalking,Ibeganto
worrythatthewaitingsoldiersanddignitarieswouldgethot.Ithinkwerein
Malaysia,Isaid.Itseemstobeoutsidethisplane.
Heconcededthatthiswastrue,butseemedtobeinnorush,soIpressedhim
abouthispublicreactiontoterrorism:Ifheshowedmoreemotion,wouldnt
thatcalmpeopledownratherthanrilethemup?
IhavefriendswhohavekidsinParisrightnow,hesaid.AndyouandIand
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awholebunchofpeoplewhoarewritingaboutwhathappenedinParishave
strolledalongthesamestreetswherepeopleweregunneddown.Andits
righttofeelfearful.Anditsimportantforusnottoevergetcomplacent.
Theresadifferencebetweenresilienceandcomplacency.Hewentonto
describeanotherdifferencebetweenmakingconsidereddecisionsand
makingrash,emotionalones.Whatitmeans,actually,isthatyoucareso
muchthatyouwanttogetitrightandyourenotgoingtoindulgeineither
impetuousor,insomecases,manufacturedresponsesthatmakegoodsound
bitesbutdontproduceresults.Thestakesaretoohightoplaythosegames.
ISIS IS NOT AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO THE

UNITED STATES. CLIMATE CHANGE IS A
POTENTIAL EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
ENTIRE WORLD IF WE DONT DO SOMETHING
ABOUT IT.
Withthat,Obamastoodupandsaid,Okay,gottago.Heheadedoutofhis
officeanddownthestairs,totheredcarpetandthehonorguardandthe
clusterofMalaysianofficialswaitingtogreethim,andthentohisarmored
limousine,flowntoKualaLumpuraheadofhim.(Earlyinhisfirstterm,still
unaccustomedtothemassivemilitaryoperationittakestomoveapresident
fromoneplacetoanother,henotedruefullytoaides,Ihavetheworlds
largestcarbonfootprint.)
Thepresidentsfirststopwasanothereventdesignedtohighlighthisturnto
Asia,thisoneatown-hallmeetingwithstudentsandentrepreneurs
participatingintheadministrationsYoungSoutheastAsianLeaders
Initiative.ObamaenteredthelecturehallatTaylorsUniversitytohuge
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applause.Hemadesomeopeningremarks,thencharmedhisaudienceinan
extendedQ&Asession.
Butthoseofuswatchingfromthepresssectionbecamedistractedbynews
comingacrossourphonesaboutanewjihadistattack,thisoneinMali.
Obama,busilymesmerizingadoringAsianentrepreneurs,hadnoidea.Only
whenhegotintohislimousinewithSusanRicedidhegetthenews.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha

Power (left) and Secretary of State John Kerry (center)
listen as Obama speaks about the Ebola epidemic in
September 2014. (Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP)
Laterthatevening,IvisitedthepresidentinhissuiteattheRitz-Carltonhotel
indowntownKualaLumpur.Thestreetsaroundthehotelhadbeensealed.
Armoredvehiclesringedthebuilding;thelobbywasfilledwithSWATteams.I
tooktheelevatortoafloorcrowdedwithSecretServiceagents,whopointed
metoastaircase;theelevatortoObamasfloorwasdisabledforsecurity
reasons.Uptwoflights,toahallwaywithmoreagents.Amomentswait,and
thenObamaopenedthedoor.Histwo-storysuitewasoutlandish:Tara-like
drapes,overstuffedcouches.Itwasenormousandlonelyandclaustrophobic
allatonce.
ItsliketheHearstCastle,Iobserved.
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Well,itsalongwayfromtheHamptonInninDesMoines,Obamasaid.
ESPNwasplayinginthebackground.
Whenwesatdown,Ipointedouttothepresidentacentralchallengeofhis
pivottoAsia.Earlierintheday,atthemomenthewastryingtoinspirea
groupofgiftedandeagerhijab-wearingIndonesianentrepreneursand
Burmeseinnovators,attentionwasdivertedbythelatestIslamistterror
attack.
Awriteratheart,hehadasuggestion:Itsprobablyaprettyeasywaytostart
thestory,hesaid,referringtothisarticle.
Possibly,Isaid,butitskindofacheaptrick.
Itscheap,butitworks,Obamasaid.Weretalkingtothesekids,andthen
theresthisattackgoingon.
Thesplit-screenqualityofthedaypromptedaconversationabouttworecent
meetingshedheld,onethatgeneratedmajorinternationalcontroversyand
headlines,andonethatdidnot.Theonethatdrewsomuchattention,I
suggested,wouldultimatelybejudgedlessconsequential.ThiswastheGulf
summitinMayof2015atCampDavid,meanttomollifyacrowdofvisiting
sheikhsandprinceswhofearedtheimpendingIrandeal.Theothermeeting
tookplacetwomonthslater,intheOvalOffice,betweenObamaandthe
generalsecretaryoftheVietnameseCommunistParty,NguyenPhuTrong.
ThismeetingtookplaceonlybecauseJohnKerryhadpushedtheWhite
Housetoviolateprotocol,sincethegeneralsecretarywasnotaheadofstate.
Butthegoalstrumpeddecorum:ObamawantedtolobbytheVietnameseon
theTrans-PacificPartnershiphisnegotiatorssoonextractedapromisefrom
theVietnamesethattheywouldlegalizeindependentlaborunionsandhe
wantedtodeepencooperationonstrategicissues.Administrationofficials
haverepeatedlyhintedtomethatVietnammayonedaysoonhosta
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permanentU.S.militarypresence,tochecktheambitionsofthecountryit
nowfearsmost,China.TheU.S.NavysreturntoCamRanhBaywouldcount
asoneofthemoreimprobabledevelopmentsinrecentAmericanhistory.
WejustmovedtheVietnameseCommunistPartytorecognizelaborrightsin
awaythatwecouldneverdobybullyingthemorscaringthem,Obamatold
me,callingthisakeyvictoryinhiscampaigntoreplacestick-wavingwith
diplomaticpersuasion.
Inotedthatthe200orsoyoungSoutheastAsiansintheroomearlierthatday
includingcitizensofCommunist-ruledcountriesseemedtoloveAmerica.
Theydo,Obamasaid.InVietnamrightnow,Americapollsat80
percent.
Obama visits a refugee center in Kuala Lumpur on a tour through Southeast Asia last fall. He sees the region as
more integral to Americas future than the Middle East. (Susan Walsh / AP)
TheresurgentpopularityofAmericathroughoutSoutheastAsiameansthat
wecandoreallybig,importantstuffwhich,bytheway,thenhas
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ramificationsacrosstheboard,hesaid,becausewhenMalaysiajoinsthe
anti-ISILcampaign,thathelpsusleverageresourcesandcredibilityinourfight
againstterrorism.WhenwehavestrongrelationswithIndonesia,thathelps
uswhenwearegoingtoParisandtryingtonegotiateaclimatetreaty,where
thetemptationofaRussiaorsomeoftheseothercountriesmaybetoskew
thedealinawaythatisunhelpful.
ObamathencitedAmericasincreasedinfluenceinLatinAmerica
increased,hesaid,inpartbyhisremovalofaregion-widestumblingblock
whenhereestablishedtieswithCubaasproofthathisdeliberate,
nonthreatening,diplomacy-centeredapproachtoforeignrelationsis
working.TheALBAmovement,agroupofLatinAmericangovernments
orientedaroundanti-Americanism,hassignificantlyweakenedduringhis
timeaspresident.WhenIcameintooffice,atthefirstSummitofthe
AmericasthatIattended,HugoChvezthelateanti-AmericanVenezuelan
dictatorwasstillthedominantfigureintheconversation,hesaid.We
madeaverystrategicdecisionearlyon,whichwas,ratherthanblowhimup
asthis10-footgiantadversary,toright-sizetheproblemandsay,Wedont
likewhatsgoingoninVenezuela,butitsnotathreattotheUnitedStates.
Obamasaidthattoachievethisrebalancing,theU.S.hadtoabsorbthe
diatribesandinsultsofsuperannuatedCastromanqus.WhenIsaw
Chvez,IshookhishandandhehandedmeaMarxistcritiqueoftheU.S.
LatinAmericarelationship,Obamarecalled.AndIhadtositthereand
listentoOrtegaDanielOrtega,theradicalleftistpresidentofNicaragua
makeanhour-longrantagainsttheUnitedStates.Butusbeingthere,not
takingallthatstuffseriouslybecauseitreallywasntathreattoushelped
neutralizetheregionsanti-Americanism.
ThepresidentsunwillingnesstocounterthebaitingbyAmericanadversaries
canfeelemotionallyunsatisfying,Isaid,andItoldhimthateverysooften,
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IdliketoseehimgiveVladimirPutinthefinger.Itsatavistic,Isaid,
understandingmyaudience.
Itis,thepresidentrespondedcoolly.Thisiswhattheyrelookingfor.
HedescribedarelationshipwithPutinthatdoesntquiteconformtocommon
perceptions.IhadbeenundertheimpressionthatObamaviewedPutinas
nasty,brutish,andshort.But,Obamatoldme,Putinisnotparticularlynasty.
Thetruthis,actually,Putin,inallofourmeetings,isscrupulouslypolite,
veryfrank.Ourmeetingsareverybusinesslike.Heneverkeepsmewaiting
twohourslikehedoesabunchoftheseotherfolks.ObamasaidthatPutin
believeshisrelationshipwiththeU.S.ismoreimportantthanAmericanstend
tothink.Hesconstantlyinterestedinbeingseenasourpeerandasworking
withus,becausehesnotcompletelystupid.HeunderstandsthatRussias
overallpositionintheworldissignificantlydiminished.Andthefactthathe
invadesCrimeaoristryingtopropupAssaddoesntsuddenlymakehima
player.Youdontseehiminanyofthesemeetingsoutherehelpingtoshape
theagenda.Forthatmatter,theresnotaG20meetingwheretheRussians
settheagendaaroundanyoftheissuesthatareimportant.
USSIASINVASIONOFCRIMEAinearly2014,anditsdecisiontouse
forcetobuttresstheruleofitsclientBasharal-Assad,havebeen
citedbyObamascriticsasproofthatthepost-red-lineworldno
longerfearsAmerica.
SowhenItalkedwiththepresidentintheOvalOfficeinlateJanuary,Iagain
raisedthisquestionofdeterrentcredibility.Theargumentismade,Isaid,
thatVladimirPutinwatchedyouinSyriaandthought,Hestoological,hes
toorational,hestoointoretrenchment.Imgoingtopushhimalittlebitfurther
inUkraine.
Obamadidntmuchlikemylineofinquiry.Look,thistheoryissoeasily
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disposedofthatImalwayspuzzledbyhowpeoplemaketheargument.I
dontthinkanybodythoughtthatGeorgeW.Bushwasoverlyrationalor
cautiousinhisuseofmilitaryforce.AndasIrecall,becauseapparently
nobodyinthistowndoes,PutinwentintoGeorgiaonBushswatch,right
smackdabinthemiddleofushavingover100,000troopsdeployedinIraq.
ObamawasreferringtoPutins2008invasionofGeorgia,aformerSoviet
republic,whichwasundertakenformanyofthesamereasonsPutinlater
invadedUkrainetokeepanexSovietrepublicinRussiassphereof
influence.
PutinactedinUkraineinresponsetoaclientstatethatwasabouttoslipout
ofhisgrasp.Andheimprovisedinawaytohangontohiscontrolthere,he
said.HesdonetheexactsamethinginSyria,atenormouscosttothewellbeingofhisowncountry.AndthenotionthatsomehowRussiaisinastronger
positionnow,inSyriaorinUkraine,thantheywerebeforetheyinvaded
UkraineorbeforehehadtodeploymilitaryforcestoSyriaistofundamentally
misunderstandthenatureofpowerinforeignaffairsorintheworld
generally.Realpowermeansyoucangetwhatyouwantwithouthavingto
exertviolence.RussiawasmuchmorepowerfulwhenUkrainelookedlikean
independentcountrybutwasakleptocracythathecouldpullthestringson.
Obamastheoryhereissimple:UkraineisacoreRussianinterestbutnotan
Americanone,soRussiawillalwaysbeabletomaintainescalatory
dominancethere.
ThefactisthatUkraine,whichisanon-NATOcountry,isgoingtobe
vulnerabletomilitarydominationbyRussianomatterwhatwedo,hesaid.
IaskedObamawhetherhispositiononUkrainewasrealisticorfatalistic.
Itsrealistic,hesaid.Butthisisanexampleofwherewehavetobevery
clearaboutwhatourcoreinterestsareandwhatwearewillingtogotowar
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for.Andattheendoftheday,theresalwaysgoingtobesomeambiguity.
Hethenofferedupacritiquehehadhearddirectedagainsthim,inorderto
knockitdown.Ithinkthatthebestargumentyoucanmakeonthesideof
thosewhoarecriticsofmyforeignpolicyisthatthepresidentdoesntexploit
ambiguityenough.Hedoesntmaybereactinwaysthatmightcausepeople
tothink,Wow,thisguymightbealittlecrazy.
ThecrazyNixonapproach,Isaid:Confuseandfrightenyourenemiesby
makingthemthinkyourecapableofcommittingirrationalacts.
ButletsexaminetheNixontheory,hesaid.Sowedroppedmore
ordnanceonCambodiaandLaosthanonEuropeinWorldWarII,andyet,
ultimately,Nixonwithdrew,KissingerwenttoParis,andallweleftbehind
waschaos,slaughter,andauthoritariangovernmentsthatfinally,overtime,
haveemergedfromthathell.WhenIgotovisitthosecountries,Imgoingto
betryingtofigureouthowwecan,today,helpthemremovebombsthatare
stillblowingoffthelegsoflittlekids.Inwhatwaydidthatstrategypromote
ourinterests?
ButwhatifPutinwerethreateningtomoveagainst,say,Moldovaanother
vulnerablepost-Sovietstate?WouldntitbehelpfulforPutintobelievethat
Obamamightgetangryandirrationalaboutthat?
Video: Jeffrey Goldberg speaks with James Bennet about The

Obama Doctrine.
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Jeffrey Goldberg speaks with James Bennet about the process of collecting interviews and writing The
Obama Doctrine.
ThereisnoevidenceinmodernAmericanforeignpolicythatthatshow
peoplerespond.Peoplerespondbasedonwhattheirimperativesare,andif
itsreallyimportanttosomebody,anditsnotthatimportanttous,theyknow
that,andweknowthat,hesaid.Therearewaystodeter,butitrequiresyou
tobeveryclearaheadoftimeaboutwhatisworthgoingtowarforandwhatis
not.Now,ifthereissomebodyinthistownthatwouldclaimthatwewould
considergoingtowarwithRussiaoverCrimeaandeasternUkraine,they
shouldspeakupandbeveryclearaboutit.Theideathattalkingtoughor
engaginginsomemilitaryactionthatistangentialtothatparticularareais
somehowgoingtoinfluencethedecisionmakingofRussiaorChinais
contrarytoalltheevidencewehaveseenoverthelast50years.
Obamawentontosaythatthebeliefinthepossibilitiesofprojected
toughnessisrootedinmythologiesaboutRonaldReagansforeignpolicy.
Ifyouthinkabout,letssay,theIranhostagecrisis,thereisanarrativethat
hasbeenpromotedtodaybysomeoftheRepublicancandidatesthattheday
Reaganwaselected,becausehelookedtough,theIraniansdecided,We
betterturnoverthesehostages,hesaid.Infactwhathadhappenedwas
thattherewasalongnegotiationwiththeIraniansandbecausetheyso
dislikedCartereventhoughthenegotiationshadbeencompletedthey
heldthosehostagesuntilthedayReagangotelected.Reagansposture,his
rhetoric,etc.,hadnothingtodowiththeirrelease.Whenyouthinkofthe
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militaryactionsthatReagantook,youhaveGrenadawhichishardtoargue
helpedourabilitytoshapeworldevents,althoughitwasgoodpoliticsforhim
backhome.YouhavetheIran-Contraaffair,inwhichwesupportedrightwingparamilitariesanddidnothingtoenhanceourimageinCentral
America,anditwasntsuccessfulatall.HeremindedmethatReagans
greatfoe,DanielOrtega,istodaytheunrepentantpresidentofNicaragua.
ObamaalsocitedReagansdecisiontoalmostimmediatelypullU.S.forces
fromLebanonafter241servicemenwerekilledinaHezbollahattackin
1983.Apparentlyallthesethingsreallyhelpedusgaincredibilitywiththe
RussiansandtheChinese,becausethatsthenarrativethatistold,hesaid
sarcastically.Now,IactuallythinkthatRonaldReaganhadagreatsuccess
inforeignpolicy,whichwastorecognizetheopportunitythatGorbachev
presentedandtoengageinextensivediplomacywhichwasroundly
criticizedbysomeofthesamepeoplewhonowuseRonaldReaganto
promotethenotionthatweshouldgoaroundbombingpeople.
NACONVERSATIONattheendofJanuary,Iaskedthepresidentto
describeformethethreatsheworriesaboutmostasheprepares,in
thecomingmonths,tohandoffpowertohissuccessor.
AsIsurveythenext20years,climatechangeworriesme
profoundlybecauseoftheeffectsthatithasonalltheotherproblemsthatwe
face,hesaid.Ifyoustartseeingmoreseveredrought;moresignificant
famine;moredisplacementfromtheIndiansubcontinentandcoastalregions
inAfricaandAsia;thecontinuingproblemsofscarcity,refugees,poverty,
diseasethismakeseveryotherproblemwevegotworse.Thatsaboveand
beyondjusttheexistentialissuesofaplanetthatstartsgettingintoabad
feedbackloop.
Terrorism,hesaid,isalsoalong-termproblemwhencombinedwiththe
problemoffailedstates.
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WhatcountrydoesheconsiderthegreatestchallengetoAmericainthe
comingdecades?Intermsoftraditionalgreat-staterelations,Idobelieve
thattherelationshipbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaisgoingtobethe
mostcritical,hesaid.IfwegetthatrightandChinacontinuesonapeaceful
rise,thenwehaveapartnerthatisgrowingincapabilityandsharingwithus
theburdensandresponsibilitiesofmaintaininganinternationalorder.If
Chinafails;ifitisnotabletomaintainatrajectorythatsatisfiesitspopulation
andhastoresorttonationalismasanorganizingprinciple;ifitfeelsso
overwhelmedthatitnevertakesontheresponsibilitiesofacountryitssizein
maintainingtheinternationalorder;ifitviewstheworldonlyintermsof
regionalspheresofinfluencethennotonlydoweseethepotentialfor
conflictwithChina,butwewillfindourselveshavingmoredifficultydealing
withtheseotherchallengesthataregoingtocome.
Manypeople,Inoted,wantthepresidenttobemoreforcefulinconfronting
China,especiallyintheSouthChinaSea.HillaryClinton,forone,hasbeen
heardtosayinprivatesettings,Idontwantmygrandchildrentoliveina
worlddominatedbytheChinese.
Ivebeenveryexplicitinsayingthatwehavemoretofearfromaweakened,
threatenedChinathanasuccessful,risingChina,Obamasaid.Ithinkwe
havetobefirmwhereChinasactionsareundermininginternational
interests,andifyoulookathowweveoperatedintheSouthChinaSea,we
havebeenabletomobilizemostofAsiatoisolateChinainwaysthathave
surprisedChina,frankly,andhaveverymuchservedourinterestin
strengtheningouralliances.
Aweak,flailingRussiaconstitutesathreataswell,thoughnotquiteatop-tier
threat.UnlikeChina,theyhavedemographicproblems,economicstructural
problems,thatwouldrequirenotonlyvisionbutagenerationtoovercome,
Obamasaid.ThepaththatPutinistakingisnotgoingtohelpthem
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overcomethosechallenges.Butinthatenvironment,thetemptationto
projectmilitaryforcetoshowgreatnessisstrong,andthatswhatPutins
inclinationis.SoIdontunderestimatethedangersthere.
Obamareturned
toapointhehadmaderepeatedlytome,onethathehopesthecountry,and
thenextpresident,absorbs:Youknow,thenotionthatdiplomacyand
technocratsandbureaucratssomehowarehelpingtokeepAmericasafeand
secure,mostpeoplethink,Eh,thatsnonsense.Butitstrue.Andbytheway,
itstheelementofAmericanpowerthattherestoftheworldappreciates
unambiguously.Whenwedeploytroops,theresalwaysasenseonthepartof
othercountriesthat,evenwherenecessary,sovereigntyisbeingviolated.
VERTHEPASTYEAR,JohnKerryhasvisitedtheWhiteHouse
regularlytoaskObamatoviolateSyriassovereignty.On
severaloccasions,KerryhasaskedObamatolaunchmissilesat
specificregimetargets,undercoverofnight,tosenda
messagetotheregime.Thegoal,Kerryhassaid,isnottooverthrowAssad
buttoencouragehim,andIranandRussia,tonegotiatepeace.Whenthe
Assadalliancehashadtheupperhandonthebattlefield,asithasthesepast
severalmonths,ithasshownnoinclinationtotakeseriouslyKerrys
entreatiestonegotiateingoodfaith.Afewcruisemissiles,Kerryhasargued,
mightconcentratetheattentionofAssadandhisbackers.Kerryslooking
likeachumpwiththeRussians,becausehehasnoleverage,asenior
administrationofficialtoldme.
TheU.S.wouldnthavetoclaimcreditfortheattacks,KerryhastoldObama
butAssadwouldsurelyknowthemissilesreturnaddress.
ObamahassteadfastlyresistedKerrysrequests,andseemstohavegrown
impatientwithhislobbying.Recently,whenKerryhandedObamaawritten
outlineofnewstepstobringmorepressuretobearonAssad,Obamasaid,
Oh,anotherproposal?AdministrationofficialshavetoldmethatVice
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PresidentBiden,too,hasbecomefrustratedwithKerrysdemandsforaction.
Hehassaidprivatelytothesecretaryofstate,John,rememberVietnam?
Rememberhowthatstarted?AtaNationalSecurityCouncilmeetingheldat
thePentagoninDecember,Obamaannouncedthatnooneexceptthe
secretaryofdefenseshouldbringhimproposalsformilitaryaction.Pentagon
officialsunderstoodObamasannouncementtobeabrushbackpitch
directedatKerry.
OBAMA HAS BET THAT THE PRICE OF DIRECT

U.S. ACTION IN SYRIA WOULD BE HIGHER
THAN THE PRICE OF INACTION.
OnedayinJanuary,inKerrysofficeattheStateDepartment,Iexpressedthe
obvious:Hehasmoreofabiastowardactionthanthepresidentdoes.
Ido,probably,Kerryacknowledged.Look,thefinalsayonthesethingsis
inhishandsIdsaythatIthinkwevehadaverysymbiotic,synergistic,
whateveryoucallit,relationship,whichworksveryeffectively.BecauseIll
comeinwiththebiastowardLetstrytodothis,letstrytodothat,letsget
thisdone.
ObamascautiononSyriahasvexedthoseintheadministrationwhohave
seenopportunities,atdifferentmomentsoverthepastfouryears,totiltthe
battlefieldagainstAssad.SomethoughtthatPutinsdecisiontofighton
behalfofAssadwouldpromptObamatointensifyAmericaneffortstohelp
anti-regimerebels.ButObama,atleastasofthiswriting,wouldnotbe
moved,inpartbecausehebelievedthatitwasnothisbusinesstostopRussia
frommakingwhathethoughtwasaterriblemistake.Theyare
overextended.Theyrebleeding,hetoldme.Andtheireconomyhas
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contractedforthreeyearsinarow,drastically.
Obama meets with Jordan's King Abdullah II at the

White House in February of 2015. (Kevin Lamarque /
Reuters)
InrecentNationalSecurityCouncilmeetings,Obamasstrategywas
occasionallyreferredtoastheTomSawyerapproach.Obamasviewwas
thatifPutinwantedtoexpendhisregimesresourcesbypaintingthefencein
Syria,theU.S.shouldlethim.Bylatewinter,though,whenitappearedthat
RussiawasmakingadvancesinitscampaigntosolidifyAssadsrule,the
WhiteHousebegandiscussingwaystodeepensupportfortherebels,though
thepresidentsambivalenceaboutmore-extensiveengagementremained.In
conversationsIhadwithNationalSecurityCouncilofficialsoverthepast
coupleofmonths,IsensedaforebodingthataneventanotherSan
Bernardinostyleattack,forinstancewouldcompeltheUnitedStatesto
takenewanddirectactioninSyria.ForObama,thiswouldbeanightmare.
IftherehadbeennoIraq,noAfghanistan,andnoLibya,Obamatoldme,he
mightbemoreapttotakerisksinSyria.Apresidentdoesnotmakedecisions
inavacuum.Hedoesnothaveablankslate.Anypresidentwhowas
thoughtful,Ibelieve,wouldrecognizethatafteroveradecadeofwar,with
obligationsthatarestilltothisdayrequiringgreatamountsofresourcesand
attentioninAfghanistan,withtheexperienceofIraq,withthestrainsthatits
placedonourmilitaryanythoughtfulpresidentwouldhesitateabout
makingarenewedcommitmentintheexactsameregionoftheworldwith
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someoftheexactsamedynamicsandthesameprobabilityofan
unsatisfactoryoutcome.
Areyoutoocautious?,Iasked.
No,hesaid.DoIthinkthathadwenotinvadedIraqandwerewenotstill
involvedinsendingbillionsofdollarsandanumberofmilitarytrainersand
advisersintoAfghanistan,wouldIpotentiallyhavethoughtabouttakingon
someadditionalrisktohelptrytoshapetheSyriasituation?Idontknow.
Whathasstruckmeisthat,evenashissecretaryofstatewarnsaboutadire,
Syria-fueledEuropeanapocalypse,Obamahasnotrecategorizedthe
countryscivilwarasatop-tiersecuritythreat.
ObamashesitationtojointhebattleforSyriaisheldoutasproofbyhiscritics
thatheistoonaive;hisdecisionin2013nottofiremissilesisproof,they
argue,thatheisabluffer.
Thiscritiquefrustratesthepresident.NobodyremembersbinLaden
anymore,hesays.Nobodytalksaboutmeordering30,000moretroops
intoAfghanistan.Thered-linecrisis,hesaid,isthepointoftheinverted
pyramiduponwhichallothertheoriesrest.
OneafternooninlateJanuary,asIwasleavingtheOvalOffice,Imentioned
toObamaamomentfromaninterviewin2012whenhetoldmethathe
wouldnotallowIrantogainpossessionofanuclearweapon.Yousaid,Im
thepresidentoftheUnitedStates,Idontbluff.
Hesaid,Idont.
Shortlyafterthatinterviewfouryearsago,EhudBarak,whowasthenthe
defenseministerofIsrael,askedmewhetherIthoughtObamasno-bluff
promisewasitselfabluff.IansweredthatIfounditdifficulttoimaginethat
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theleaderoftheUnitedStateswouldbluffaboutsomethingsoconsequential.
ButBaraksquestionhadstayedwithme.SoasIstoodinthedoorwaywith
thepresident,Iasked:Wasitabluff?Itoldhimthatfewpeoplenowbelieve
heactuallywouldhaveattackedIrantokeepitfromgettinganuclear
weapon.
Thatsinteresting,hesaid,noncommittally.
Istartedtotalk:Doyou
Heinterrupted.Iactuallywouldhave,hesaid,meaningthathewouldhave
struckIransnuclearfacilities.IfIsawthembreakout.
Headded,Now,theargumentthatcantberesolved,becauseitsentirely
situational,waswhatconstitutesthemgettingthebomb.Thiswasthe
argumentIwashavingwithBibiNetanyahu.NetanyahuwantedObamato
preventIranfrombeingcapableofbuildingabomb,notmerelyfrom
possessingabomb.
Youwererighttobelieveit,thepresidentsaid.Andthenhemadehiskey
point.ThiswasinthecategoryofanAmericaninterest.
IwasremindedthenofsomethingDerekChollet,aformerNationalSecurity
Councilofficial,toldme:Obamaisagambler,notabluffer.
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Ruven Afanador
Thepresidenthasplacedsomehugebets.LastMay,ashewastryingtomove
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theIrannucleardealthroughCongress,Itoldhimthattheagreementwas
makingmenervous.Hisresponsewastelling.Look,20yearsfromnow,Im
stillgoingtobearound,Godwilling.IfIranhasanuclearweapon,itsmy
nameonthis,hesaid.Ithinkitsfairtosaythatinadditiontoourprofound
national-securityinterests,Ihaveapersonalinterestinlockingthisdown.
InthematteroftheSyrianregimeanditsIranianandRussiansponsors,
Obamahasbet,andseemspreparedtocontinuebetting,thatthepriceof
directU.S.actionwouldbehigherthanthepriceofinaction.Andheis
sanguineenoughtolivewiththeperilousambiguitiesofhisdecisions.
ThoughinhisNobelPeacePrizespeechin2009,Obamasaid,Inaction
tearsatourconscienceandcanleadtomorecostlyinterventionlater,today
theopinionsofhumanitarianinterventionistsdonotseemtomovehim,at
leastnotpublicly.Heundoubtedlyknowsthatanext-generationSamantha
Powerwillwritecriticallyofhisunwillingnesstodomoretopreventthe
continuingslaughterinSyria.(Forthatmatter,SamanthaPowerwillalsobe
thesubjectofcriticismfromthenextSamanthaPower.)Ashecomestothe
endofhispresidency,Obamabelieveshehasdonehiscountryalargefavor
bykeepingitoutofthemaelstromandhebelieves,Isuspect,thathistorians
willonedayjudgehimwiseforhavingdoneso.
InsidetheWestWing,officialssaythatObama,asapresidentwhoinherited
afinancialcrisisandtwoactivewarsfromhispredecessor,iskeentoleavea
cleanbarntowhoeversucceedshim.ThisiswhythefightagainstISIS,a
groupheconsiderstobeadirect,thoughnotexistential,threattotheU.S.,is
hismosturgentpriorityfortheremainderofhispresidency;killingthesocalledcaliphoftheIslamicState,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,isoneofthetop
goalsoftheAmericannational-securityapparatusinObamaslastyear.
Ofcourse,ISISwasmidwifedintoexistence,inpart,bytheAssadregime.Yet
byObamasstringentstandards,Assadscontinuedruleforthemomentstill
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doesntrisetothelevelofdirectchallengetoAmericasnationalsecurity.
Thisiswhatissocontroversialaboutthepresidentsapproach,andwhatwill
becontroversialforyearstocomethestandardhehasusedtodefinewhat,
exactly,constitutesadirectthreat.
Obamahascometoanumberofdovetailingconclusionsabouttheworld,
andaboutAmericasroleinit.ThefirstisthattheMiddleEastisnolonger
terriblyimportanttoAmericaninterests.Thesecondisthatevenifthe
MiddleEastweresurpassinglyimportant,therewouldstillbelittlean
Americanpresidentcoulddotomakeitabetterplace.Thethirdisthatthe
innateAmericandesiretofixthesortsofproblemsthatmanifestthemselves
mostdrasticallyintheMiddleEastinevitablyleadstowarfare,tothedeaths
ofU.S.soldiers,andtotheeventualhemorrhagingofU.S.credibilityand
power.Thefourthisthattheworldcannotaffordtoseethediminishmentof
U.S.power.JustastheleadersofseveralAmericanallieshavefound
Obamasleadershipinadequatetothetasksbeforehim,hehimselfhasfound
worldleadershipwanting:globalpartnerswhooftenlackthevisionandthe
willtospendpoliticalcapitalinpursuitofbroad,progressivegoals,and
adversarieswhoarenot,inhismind,asrationalasheis.Obamabelievesthat
historyhassides,andthatAmericasadversariesandsomeofitsputative
allieshavesituatedthemselvesonthewrongone,aplacewheretribalism,
fundamentalism,sectarianism,andmilitarismstillflourish.Whattheydont
understandisthathistoryisbendinginhisdirection.
ThecentralargumentisthatbykeepingAmericafromimmersingitselfin
thecrisesoftheMiddleEast,theforeign-policyestablishmentbelievesthat
thepresidentisprecipitatingourdecline,BenRhodestoldme.Butthe
presidenthimselftakestheoppositeview,whichisthatoverextensioninthe
MiddleEastwillultimatelyharmoureconomy,harmourabilitytolookfor
otheropportunitiesandtodealwithotherchallenges,and,mostimportant,
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endangerthelivesofAmericanservicemembersforreasonsthatarenotin
thedirectAmericannational-securityinterest.
Ifyouareasupporterofthepresident,hisstrategymakeseminentsense:
Doubledowninthosepartsoftheworldwheresuccessisplausible,andlimit
Americasexposuretotherest.Hiscriticsbelieve,however,thatproblems
likethosepresentedbytheMiddleEastdontsolvethemselvesthat,without
Americanintervention,theymetastasize.
Atthemoment,Syria,wherehistoryappearstobebendingtowardgreater
chaos,posesthemostdirectchallengetothepresidentsworldview.
GeorgeW.Bushwasalsoagambler,notabluffer.Hewillberemembered
harshlyforthethingshedidintheMiddleEast.BarackObamaisgambling
thathewillbejudgedwellforthethingshedidntdo.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR

JEFFREY GOLDBERG is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and a recipient of the
National Magazine Award for Reporting. He is the author of Prisoners: A Story of
Friendship and Terror.
Twitter Email
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APRIL 2016 ISSUE

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