HDM-4 Applications

HDM-4 Applications

Project Appraisal

Project Formulation

Maintenance Policy Optimization

Road Works Programming

Network Strategic Analysis

Standards & Policies

2

Project Appraisal
Concerned with the economic justification of a project
defined by other means.

Project types

New construction, upgrading

Reconstruction, resealing

Widening, lane addition

Economic indicators

Net Present Value (NPV)

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

3

Paving a Gravel Road

Current Policy (Without Project)
- Gravel resurfacing when
thickness of gravel is less
than 50mm
- Routine maintenance
- Grading every 182 days
Gravel
Road with
300 AADT

Proposed Project (With Project)

- Upgrade the road to a paved
standard
- After upgrading, routine
maintenance, patching 100% of
the potholes, and resealing
when damaged area > 20%

Two Project Alternatives

4

Roughness Progression
Gravel Road with 300 AADT
20.0
18.0

Roughness (IRI)

16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2005

2010

2015

2020

Year
Without Project

With Project

2025

Comparison of Alternatives
Evaluation Period = 20 years
Discount rate = 12.00 %
---- Present Values ---------------Internal
Construction & Road
Net
Rate of
Length
Maintenance User
Total Present Return
(km) Alt.
Costs
Costs Costs Value
(%)
10.0

Without
With

0.18
1.75

5.10
3.10

5.28
4.85

0.43

Is the project economically justified?

6

15.5

Net Economic Benefits

Stream of Economic Costs (M US$)
Without Project
With Project
Road Road Total
Road Road Total
Net
Year
Agency User Society Agency User Society Benefits
-1.61
2006
0.01
0.47
0.48
1.60
0.49
2.09
0.20
2007
0.01
0.50
0.51
0.02
0.29
0.31
0.22
2008
0.01
0.53
0.54
0.02
0.30
0.32
0.23
2009
0.01
0.55
0.56
0.02
0.31
0.33
0.24
2010
0.01
0.57
0.58
0.02
0.32
0.34
0.34
2011
0.10
0.59
0.69
0.02
0.33
0.35
0.20
2012
0.01
0.56
0.57
0.02
0.34
0.36
0.27
2013
0.01
0.63
0.64
0.02
0.35
0.37
0.28
2014
0.01
0.66
0.67
0.02
0.36
0.39
0.29
2015
0.01
0.68
0.69
0.02
0.38
0.40
0.30
2016
0.01
0.70
0.71
0.02
0.39
0.41
0.40
2017
0.10
0.73
0.82
0.02
0.40
0.43
0.25
2018
0.01
0.68
0.69
0.02
0.42
0.44
0.33
2019
0.01
0.77
0.78
0.02
0.43
0.46
0.12
2020
0.01
0.80
0.81
0.25
0.45
0.70
0.44
2021
0.10
0.83
0.93
0.02
0.47
0.49
0.29
2022
0.01
0.78
0.80
0.02
0.48
0.51
0.37
2023
0.01
0.88
0.90
0.02
0.50
0.52
0.39
2024
0.01
0.92
0.93
0.02
0.52
0.54
1.04
2025
0.01
0.95
0.96
-0.62
0.54
-0.08
Present Value at 12% Disc 5.28
4.85
0.43
Net Present Value at 12% (M US$)
0.43
7

Discount Rate Sensitivity

Discount
Net Present
Rate
Value, NPV
(%)
(%)
5.0%
2.03
6.0%
1.71
7.0%
1.42
8.0%
1.17
9.0%
0.95
10.0%
0.75
11.0%
0.58
0.43
12.0%
13.0%
0.29
14.0%
0.16
15.0%
0.05
15.5%
0.00
16.0%
-0.05
17.0%
-0.14
18.0%
-0.22
19.0%
-0.29
20.0%
-0.36

Net
Present
Value
at 12%

Internal
Rate of
Return

Project Formulation
Concerned with the economic comparison of project
alternatives to better define the project.

Compares many project alternatives, e.g.

Surface

Types
Surface Thicknesses
Geometric standards
Timing of intervention

Compares alternatives in terms of net benefits

and agency costs (economic efficiency frontier
graph)
8

Optimal Timing for Paving

- Regravel and grading every 182 days

- Upgrade in 2006
Gravel
Road with
300 AADT

- Upgrade in 2007
- Upgrade in 2008
- Upgrade in 2009

Many Project Alternatives

9

Economic Efficiency Frontier

Gravel Road with 300 AADT
0.50

Upgrade in 2007

Net Present Value at 12%

0.45
0.40

Upgrade in 2009
Upgrade in 2008

0.35

Upgrade in 2006

0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.00

Grading every 182 days

0.50
1.00
1.50
Present Value of Agency Costs at 12%

Which is the optimal alternative?

10

2.00

Maintenance Policy Optimization

Concerned with finding an optimal maintenance
policy and funding for a given road class.

User defines road classes in terms of condition

and traffic
A series of condition responsive road works are
evaluated
The alternative with highest NPV is identified
along with the recurrent and capital resources
needed to implement the alternative
11

Asphalt Road Maintenance

- Reconstruction when roughness > 8.0 IRI
- 25 mm reseal when damaged area > 10%
- 25 mm reseal when damaged area > 20%
- 25 mm reseal when damaged area > 30%

A Paved Road
in Fair Condition

- 40 mm overlay when roughness > 3.0 IRI

- 40 mm overlay when roughness > 4.0 IRI
- 40 mm overlay when roughness > 5.0 IRI
- 80 mm overlay when roughness > 3.0 IRI
- 80 mm overlay when roughness > 4.0 IRI
- 80 mm overlay when roughness > 5.0 IRI

- All include routine maintenance and patching 100% of potholes

12

Roughness Progression
Paved Road 1500 AADT/3.0 IRI
9.0
8.0

Roughness (IRI)

7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2005

2010

2015
Year

13

2020

2025

Economic Efficiency Frontier

Paved Road 1500 AADT/3.0 IRI
0.70
40mm at 4.0 IRI

Net Present Value at 12%

0.60

40mm at 5.0 IRI

0.50

80mm at 5.0 IRI

40mm at 3.0 IRI

25mm at 10%

80mm at 4.0 IRI

25mm at 20%

0.40

25mm at 30%

0.30
0.20
80mm at 3.0 IRI

0.10
Reconstruction at 8.0 IRI

0.00
0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Present Value of Agency Costs at 12%

Which is the optimal maintenance policy?

14

1.40

1.60

Road Works Programming

Concerned with the preparation of single or multiyear road work and expenditure programmes under
specified budget constraints.

Objective: prioritise candidate road

projects in each year within annual budget

constraint
Annual budgets obtained from strategic
maintenance plan
15

Procedure

Use specified standards to screen network &

identify candidate projects, e.g.
road

sections which exceed specified condition

roads with inadequate capacity
pavements which need strengthening
upgrade pavements with high traffic volumes

Determine maintenance or improvement options

Specify budget limits & periods
Optimise using selected objective
Produce optimal list of projects for budget
period
16

Evaluation of Road Sections

Good Condition Roads
- Reseal 25 mm in 2006
- Reseal 25 mm in 2007
- Reseal 25 mm in 2008
- Reseal 25 mm in 2009

Homogeneous Road Sections

Fair Condition Roads

- Overlay 40 mm in 2006
- Overlay 40 mm in 2007
- Overlay 40 mm in 2008
- Overlay 40 mm in 2009
- Overlay 80 mm in 2006
- Overlay 80 mm in 2007
- Overlay 80 mm in 2008
- Overlay 80 mm in 2009

17

Poor Condition Roads

- Overlay 80 mm in 2006
- Overlay 80 mm in 2007
- Overlay 80 mm in 2008
- Overlay 80 mm in 2009
- Overlay 100 mm in 2006
- Overlay 100 mm in 2007
- Overlay 100 mm in 2008
- Overlay 100 mm in 2009

Unconstrained Work Program

18

Constrained Work Program

19

Work Program Output

Priority
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
:
1
2
3
:
1
2
3
:

Road
Section
N1-2
N4-7
N2-5
R312-1
R458-3
:
N4-16
R13-23
N521-5
:
N1-6
N7-9
F2140-8
:

Length Province Type of

(km) or District Road Work
20.5
2
Resealing
23.5
7
Overlay 40mm
12.5
5
Reconstruct
30
4
Widen 4 lane
36.2
3
Overlay 60mm
:
:
:
32.1
6
Reconstruct
22.4
4
Overlay 40mm
45.2
2
Widen 4 lane
:
:
:
30.2
4
Resealing
17.8
3
Overlay 60mm
56.1
1
Reconstruct
:
:
:

20

Scheduled
Year
2000
2003
2000
2003
2000
2003
2000
2003
2000
2003
:
:
2001
2004
2001
2004
2001
2004
:
:
2002
2005
2002
2005
2002
2005
:
:

Cost Cumulative
$m
S$m
5.4
5.4
10.9
16.3
8.6
24.9
31.4
56.3
16.3
72.6
:
22.8
22.8
9.7
32.5
41.3
73.8
:
8.2
8.2
9.2
17.4
34.9
52.3
:

Network Strategy Analysis

Concerned with the analysis of
entire road networks to determine funding needs and/or
to predict future performance under budget constraints

Objectives:
Determine

budget allocations for road

maintenance and improvement
Prepare for work programmes
Determine long term network performance
Assess impact on road users
21

Strategic Planning

Forecast scenarios of revenues & available

budget
Assess current condition of assets
Forecast traffic demands (from road network
plan)
Evaluate impact of strategies on performance
and costs - using predictive model
Optimize strategies under alternative budget
scenarios - maximize NPV for each scenario
Determine multi-year program allocations &
performance

22

Strategic Planning Approach

Matrix of Road Classes
A.C.

L
M
H

Road Network
Resource
Constraints

Optimal Program under

Budgetary Constraints

Optimization
Module
23

Program
without
Budgetary
Constraints

Diagnostic of the Network Condition

Roughness in 1998
< 3.5 IRI
28%

3.5 < IRI <

5.0
8%

> 5.0 IRI

64%

24

Diagnostic of Road User Costs

Typical Road User Costs (Rs/vehicle-km)
35.0
30.0
25.0
Car
Wagon
Bus
S. Truck
M. Truck
H. Truck

20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2

5
6
7
8
Roughness (IRI)
25

10

11

Diagnostic of Agency Costs

Typical Periodic Maintenance Costs
30 cm Gran. Base / 25 cm AC
30 cm Gran. Base / 20 cm AC
30 cm Gran. Base / 15 cm AC

Reconstruction

25 cm Overlay
20 cm Overlay

Structural
Overlays

15 cm Overlay
13 cm Overlay
7.5 cm Overlay

Functional
Overlays

5 cm Overlay
30 mm TST

Functional
Reseals

25 mm DST

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Financial Costs (Million Rs/km)

26

25.00

Diagnostic of Road Classes

Primary Network

Surface
Asphalt
Concrete

Traffic (ADT)
< 1000
1000 - 3000
3000 - 5000
5000 - 7000
> 7000
Total
%

Good
Fair
Poor
Very Poor
< 3.5 IRI
3.5 < IRI < 5.0
5.0 < IRI < 7.0
> 7.0 IRI
< 2500 BI
2500 < BI < 3500 3500 < BI < 5000
> 5000 BI
<5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25%
368
438
22
98
90
214
105
21
10
36
86
179 315
15
20
63
87
126
38
117 156
61
64
15
46
1286 463 256
0
138 276
0
97
213
15
0
46
46% 17% 9%
0%
5% 10% 0%
3%
8%
1%
0%
2%
72%
15%
11%
2%

%
13%
23%
17%
21%
25%

Total
1553
1346
474
429
773
4575

%
34%
29%
10%
9%
17%

Secondary Network

Surface
Surface
Treatment

Good
Fair
Poor
Very Poor
< 3.5 IRI
3.5 < IRI < 5.0
5.0 < IRI < 7.0
> 7.0 IRI
< 2500 BI
2500 < BI < 3500 3500 < BI < 5000
> 5000 BI
Traffic (ADT) <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25% <5% 5-25% >25%
< 1000
132
66
476
125 754
1000 - 3000
22
71
47 1206
3000 - 5000
13
211
18
232
5000 - 7000
15
46
37
331
> 7000
49
25
69
14
616
Total
0
0
49
132
15
25
0
216 758
0
241 3139
%
0%
0%
1%
3%
0%
1%
0%
5% 17% 0%
5% 69%
1%
4%
21%
74%

Total
368
648
472
592
710
2790

27

Solution Catalog per Budget Level

Primary Network

Surface
Asphalt
Concrete

Traffic (ADT) <5%

< 1000
01 - 3
1000 - 3000 03 - 7
3000 - 5000 03 - 3
5000 - 7000 03 - 5
> 7000
03 - 3

Secondary Network

Surface
Surface
Treatment

Traffic (ADT) <5%

< 1000
1000 - 3000
3000 - 5000
5000 - 7000
> 7000
-

Good
< 3.5 IRI
< 2500 BI
5-25%
>25%
01 - 3
02 - 5
02 - 1
04 - 5
04 - 5
04 - 3
04 - 3

<5%
-

Good
< 3.5 IRI
< 2500 BI
5-25%
>25%
04 - 1

Fair
3.5 < IRI < 5.0
2500 < BI < 3500
<5%
5-25%
>25%
01 - 7
04 - 3
05 - 1

Periodic Operations (Billion Rs)

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
6
6
6
6

Fair
3.5 < IRI < 5.0
2500 < BI < 3500
5-25%
>25%
04 - 5
03 - 3
05 - 3
04 - 3
04 - 1
05 - 3

Year 5
6
28

Year 6
6

<5%
-

Poor
5.0 < IRI < 7.0
3500 < BI < 5000
5-25%
>25%
05 - 3
05 - 1
05 - 3
12 - 3
12 - 3

<5%
-

Poor
5.0 < IRI < 7.0
3500 < BI < 5000
5-25%
>25%
04 - 5
04 - 7
04 - 3
04 - 3
04 - 3
04 - 3
04 - 1
06 - 1
-

Net Present Value

B Rs
M$
243
5404

Consequences to Society
Society Net Benefits Present Value (Billion Rs)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0

Periodic Expenditures (Billion Rs/year)

29

Consequences to the Network

Scenario: 6 Billion Rs per year
8.5

80%

7.5

70%

6.5

60%
50%

5.5

40%

4.5

30%
20%

3.5

10%

Year
30

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

2.5
1999

0%

Average Roughness (IRI)

90%

1998

Network Condition (%)

100%

Poor
Fair
Good
Avg. IRI

Consequences to the Agency

Budget Scenarios (Billion Rs per year)
1.0
2.0

Period: Years
7 to 20

3.0

Period: Years
1 to 6

4.5
6.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Periodic Expenditures per Period (Billion Rs.)
31

Consequences to the Users

Network Road User Costs (Billion Rs)
250
6 Billion
Rs per
Year
Case

200
150
100
50
0
1999

Without
Project
Case

Savings:
152 Billion Rs

2000

2001

2002

Year
32

2003

2004

Support Definition of Budget Level

Budget
Scenarios

Average Network Roughness (IRI)

(Rs B per year)

1.0

2.0

6
3.0

4.5

6.0

3
2
1998

1999

2000

2001
Year

2002

33

2003

2004

Support for Allocation of Resources

Maintenance Budget ($m)
Region

Primary Roads
Flexible

Secondary Roads

Gravel

Flexible

Gravel

North

45.9

18.7

34.5

21.8

East

34.6

13.5

24.9

11.8

South

52.1

21.0

45.0

21.8

West

27.2

20.4

19.5

12.3

34

Optimal Budget Requirements

250

US $ m/year .

200
Development
Improvement
Periodic
Routine

150
100
50
0
2003

2004

2005

35

2006

Support for Programming of Works

Link
52
58
32
25
3
5
12
15
16
6
11
13

From
To
Length Width
City
City
Type (km)
(m)
Peshawar Jamrud
AC
19
7.3
AC
86
7.3
Chichawat Sahiwal
Shahdara Muridke
AC
15
7.3
Khanewal Mian Channu AC
46
7.3
Hala
Sakrand
ST
41
7.3
ST
56
7.3
Qazi AhmeMoro
Panu Aqil Ghotki
ST
28
7.3
Daherki Ubaro
ST
14
7.3
Ubaro
Sadiq Abad
ST
41
7.3
25
7.3
Moro
Nowshero Fer ST
Rohri
Panu Aqil
ST
32
7.3
25
7.3
Ghotki
Mir Pur Mathe ST

Rough
All
Rut
Total
ness Cracks Depth Traffic Road
Cost
(IRI)
(%) (mm) (ADT) Class Solution B Rs
3.3
27.5
14
3657 P3AZ 02 - 1
0.01
1.5
26.7
6
4628 P3AZ 02 - 1
0.07
9.9
0.0
0 13994 P5DX 06 - 1
0.15
9.3
76.6
0
9754 P5DZ 12 - 1
0.50
7.3
30.3
4
7040 S5DZ 12 - 1
0.43
7.7
47.9
4
8000 S5DZ 12 - 1
0.59
7.8
32.1
3
8736 S5DZ 12 - 1
0.30
10.7
26.2
10
8832 S5DZ 12 - 1
0.15
8.3
41.8
8
8880 S5DZ 12 - 1
0.43
8.6
32.6
7
7013 S5DZ 12 - 1
0.26
7.4
41.9
13 11101 S5DZ 12 - 1
0.34
8.5
36.1
5
8074 S5DZ 12 - 1
0.26

36

NPV
B Rs
0.46
2.06
2.72
7.29
5.37
7.34
3.67
1.84
5.37
3.28
4.19
3.28

NPV/
Cost
31.46
31.46
18.14
14.59
12.40
12.40
12.40
12.40
12.40
12.40
12.40
12.40

Standards & Policies

Concerned with specific studies designed to define
rational technical standards and vehicle policies

Road pricing
road use costs (to define fuel levies)
congestion charges
weight-distance charges

Vehicle regulations
axle load limits
energy consumption, vehicle emissions & noise

Engineering Standards
sustainable road network size
pavement design and maintenance standards

37

Technical Standards

Net Present Value at 12%

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
100

200

300

400

Traffic (ADT)

What is the optimal traffic threshold for paving?

38

Average Agency Costs ($/km/yr)

Vehicle Policies
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000

Non-vehicle-related

Vehicle-related

10000

6000

3000

1000

300

Loading-related

How much road damage is caused by trucks?

39