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China'sPollutionMayNotBeDecreasingasFastasHopedScientificAmerican

CL I MAT E

China's Pollution May Not Be Decreasing as Fast as

Hoped
A new study questions the dip in Chinas CO2 emissions
By Bobby Magill, Climate Central on March 29, 2016

Beijing, China.
J Aaron Farr/Flickr, CC BY 2.0

Chinasgreenhousegasemissionsareonadownwardtrajectory,butits

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emissionsmaynothavefallenquiteasmuchoverthepasttwoyearsasthe
ChinesegovernmentandtheInternationalEnergyAgencyhavesuggested.

ThatstheconclusionofanewstudypublishedinthejournalNatureClimate
Change,whichsaysChinasemissionsmayhaveactuallyincreasedin2014,
ratherthanfallen.

TheInternationalEnergyAgencyestimatedlastyearthatboththedeclinein
Chinascoaluseandfallingelectricitydemandreduceditscarbondioxide
emissionsby1.5percentin2014,leadingtoa0.2percentreductioninglobal
emissions.

Theactualemissionspicturemaybeabitmorecomplicated,however.

WeestimatethatChinascarbondioxideemissionsin2014actuallyincreased
byapproximately0.5percent,saidstudycoauthorRobbieAndrew,a
researcherattheCenterforInternationalClimateandEnvironmental
Research,orCICERO,inOslo,Norway.

Chinaistheworldslargestgreenhousegasemitterinpartbecauseitisthe
worldsgreatestburnerofcoalforelectricity.Coalistheglobesleadingsource
ofgreenhousegasemissionsdrivingclimatechange.

EstimatesofChinasgreenhousegasemissionsarebasedinlargeparton
officialChinesereportsontheamountofcoalitburnsdatathatChinas
governmentroutinelyrevisesovertime,affectingscientistsestimatesofthe
countrysgreenhousegasemissions.

Chinahasreportedthatitscoalusefell2.9percentin2014whenmeasuredby
weight,and3.7percentin2015.Thedeclinecomesasthecountrygrappleswith
astrugglingeconomy,chokingurbanairpollutionandaneedtoreduce

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greenhousegasemissionstoupholditsendoftheParisclimateagreement.

Butareductionincoalusedoesntnecessarilytranslateintolowercarbon
dioxideemissionsfromcoalfiredpowerplants.

Carbondioxideemissionsdependmainlyontheenergycontentofcoal,not
howmuchitweighs.Chinaisburningmoreenergydensecoal,meaningthat
carbondioxideemissionsdecreaselessthantheamountofcoalburned,
Andrewsaid.

Thestudy,publishedMonday,showsthateventhoughChinadecreaseditscoal
consumption2.9percentin2014,revisedstatisticsshowthatcoalenergy
consumptionwentdownbyjust0.7percentthatyear,leadingtoanetincrease
inemissionsof0.5percent.

Despitethatincreasein2014,thestudyconcludesthatChinasemissionsare
likelytohavedecreasedin2015.Anotherstudypublishedthismonthsuggested
Chinasemissionsmayhavepeakedalready.

OurestimatesshowthatthegrowthinChineseemissionshasslowedalotin
thepasttwotothreeyears,andisnowmuchlowerthanatanypointsincethe
early2000s,saidstudyleadauthorJanIvarKorsbakken,seniorclimate
economicsresearcheratCICERO.Thereisalotofuncertaintyinthenumbers,
butweshowthatthisslowdownisalmostcertainlyreal.

ThestudysaysverylittleaboutfuturetrendsinChinasemissions,hesaid.

IEAspokesmanGregFrostsaiditusuallytakestwoyearsfortheagencytofully
accountformostcountriesenergyuseandcarbonemissions.Afullaccounting
for2014willbereleasedthissummer,hesaid.

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Scientistsunaffiliatedwiththestudysaidithighlightstheuncertaintyindata
releasedbytheChinesegovernment.

ThebroadercontextisskepticismofChina'sreportedcoalconsumptionand
CO2emissions,saidRobJackson,aStanfordUniversityearthsystemsscience
professor.They'vetendedtorevisetheirestimatesupwardsretroactively.The
mostimportantpartofthenewpaperistheauthors'confirmationthat
fundamentalchangesareunderwayinChina'scoaluse.That'sgoodnewsfor
everyone,andIagreewiththem."

RanpingSong,developingcountryclimateactionmanagerfortheWorld
ResourcesInstitute,saidthathehasatechnicalquibblewiththestudys
specificestimateofChinasemissionsgrowthin2014,butheagreeswithits
generalconclusion.

SomeofChinasdataisuncertain,butthereisclearlyadownwardtrendinboth
Chinasenergyandcoalconsumption,hesaid.

InsteadoffocusingontheexacttimingofChinasemissionpeak,themore
importantquestioniswhetherChinaisbuildingafoundationfordeep
decarbonizationoverthelongterm,Songsaid.Thedebate,therefore,should
focusonmeasuresthatwillenablerecenttrendstolastinasustainable
manner.

ThisarticleisreproducedwithpermissionfromClimateCentral.Thearticle
wasfirstpublishedonMarch29,2016.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

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2 016 S CI E N TI F I CA ME RI CA N , A DI V I S I ON OF N A TU RE A ME RI CA , I N C.

A LLRI GHTS RE S E RV E D.

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