The Trend of The Birth Rate in India, 1911-50

Population Investigation Committee
The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50

Author(s): A. Ghosh
Reviewed work(s):
Source: Population Studies, Vol. 10, No. 1 (Jul., 1956), pp. 53-68
Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. on behalf of the Population Investigation Committee
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The Trendof theBirthRatein India, I9I

By A.
I-50
GHOSH
I
In an earlierpaper' on the trendsof birthrates in West Bengal, an attempt
was made to estimatethe true level of the birthratesin thatregion by devising
a formulafor correctingthe registeredvital statisticsfor the region on the basis
of a criticalstudyof certainsystematicbiases displayedby the statistics.
Since the completionof that paper the Governmentof India, in connection
with the Census of 195I, has published a reportentitledEstimationof Birthand
Death Rates in India duringI94I-5 0.2 In this reportthe actuariesassociated with
the census of 195 I have analyseda mass of materialand have triedto arriveat
regions of India during
firmestimatesof the birthand death ratesfor different
1941-50.
KingsleyDavis has also triedto computebirthestimatesforthe major
These two publicationsthus enable us to
provinces of India during I926-30.3
examine two independentlyestimatedrates of omission in the two decades (i.e.
I926-30
and 1941-50).
In the earlierpaper it was shown thatwe can apply our formulain estimating
the rates of omission for several decades provided that we can use the rate of
omission for any specificperiod as a given datum. Thus using the rates of
omission as estimatedby the census actuariesfor I941-50 as a datum we can
estimatethe ratesof omissionfor I9II-20,
192I-30
and
1931-40
from the
formulaitself.
In the presentpaper it will be shown thatthe formuladevised forWest Bengal
is valid for a much larger area, comprisingthe provinces of Assam, Bengal,
Bihar, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh.4 The rates of omission
estimatedby our formulafor I92z-30 will be comparedwith the corresponding
ratesof omissionfor I926-30 as estimatedby KingsleyDavis, and it will be shown
thatin all the cases the two agree quite closely.
The only provinces in which the formula does not seem to apply are the
Punjab, Madras and Bombay. The possible reason why these provinces do not
follow this common patternwill be discussed and rates of omission for these
three calculated on the basis of other considerations. With the estimatesfor
these nine provinces,an all-India rate of birth and a rate of omission will be
fortheperiod1911-50.
estimated
1 A. Ghosh, "Demographic Trends in India during I90I-50

", PopulationStudies,vol. ix, no. 3,
March I956, pp. 2I7-36.
2 CensusofIndia,Paper No. 6,
I954.
3 K. Davis, The Population
ofIndiaand Pakistan. Princeton,I95I.
4 In India before I947
were comprisedof these nine
the units under directBritishadministration
provinces. In freeIndia theseprovinceshave been designatedas States. In thispapertheseunitswill
be referredto as provincesto avoid confusion. Of the nine provincesBengal and the Punjab were
partitionedduringthe creationof the State of Pakistan In the paper we referto the regionsincluded
in the Indian Union and known as West Bengal and East Punjab.
53
54
A.
GHOSH
II
While the reliabilityof the registrationstatisticsin different
parts of India
is questioned by most expertson Indian demography,theygenerallyagree that
the registrationseriesis still of some value for indicatingthe trendas it is free
fromsudden jumps or irregularities.' We also showed in our earlierstudythat
the registrationstatisticsare fairlyconsistentwithintheirframeworkand suffer
from systematicbias ratherthan random irregularitieson a large scale. In
analysingthe series of registeredbirthsin West Bengal over a period of over
fiftyyears we noted a number of featureswhich revealed the existence of a
systematicbias in the series. These featuresmay be summarizedas follows:
(i) The registeredbirthrate showed a steadydecline over the years,a decline
not confirmedby subsequent census counts. This decline in the birth rate
was seen to be highestin the districtswitha markedrise in the population. The
higherthe rate of increasein the population of an area, the steeperwas the fall
in the birthrate.
(ii) The absolute numberof birthsregisteredtends to fluctuateabout a mean,
in spite of a sharp rise in population, and this cannot be explained even by
of the population.
assuminga reasonablefallin the fertility
(iii) The short-rangefluctuationsin the birth rate for contiguous areas
throughoutthe last fiftyyears showed a high seasonal correlationwhich may
be expected over neighbouringareas.
An analysis of the birth rate in the nine provinces we are now considering
shows thatin the provincesof Assam, Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, UttarPradesh and
Madhya Pradesh most of these featuresare present in the registrationdata.
The followingtable shows the registeredbirthrate for the nine provincesover
the last fftyyears.
Table
Provinces
...
...
Assam
...
W. Bengal*
Bihar and Orissa
UttarPradesh
MadhyaPradesh ...
Madras
Bombay ...
E. Punjab*......
...
I90I-I0
...
...
...
...
Crude BirthRate per i,ooo (registered)during
35-7
37.6
41.0
4I*4
49 -6
30- 8
33'4
4I.2
* FiguresforBengal and Punjab for I90I-I0
I9II-20
32.3
32-8
38 -8
42- 2
45 5
30.7
34.2
43 - 8
and I9II-20
I92I-30
I93I-40
30? 3
25. 6
27'5
31.5
34- 2
194I-50
i6-8
43-7
4I*2
34 7
20-5
22-9
24. 8
37.0
30. 8
42- 2
37.2
43 . 0
39-
28.5
36.3
35-
34 6
35'9
32.9
referto the provincesbeforethepartition.
In the firstfiveprovinces(includingBihar and Orissa as one unit as in earlier

officialreports)the birth rate shows a consistentfall throughoutthe last fifty
' " Since the adequacy of registration
has apparentlychanged very little in India during several
decades any pronouncedincreaseor decreasein the registeredbirthrateshould indicatea similartrend
is fairlyuniformand
in the actual rate", Davis, op. cit.,p. 68. " It will be seen thatunder-registration
does not take suddenleaps and bounds fromyearto year", cf. Vital Statisticsof WestBengalI94I-50,
CensusofIndia,195 I, vol. vi, partIB, p. z.
THE
TREND
OF
THE
BIRTH
RATE
IN
INDIA,
55
I911-50
But in the
years,decliningin some cases to almost half the rate of I9OI-IO.
last threeprovincesof Bombay, Madras and the Punjab an almost constantrate
is maintainedthroughoutthe period. It is significantin this connection that
all Indian demographic studies agree that these three provinces maintain a
reasonably efficientstandard of registration.' It is also generallyrecognised
that the provinces which show the steepest decline over the decades are also
those which have the least reliable systemsof registration(e.g. Assam and
Bengal). This featureis clearly brought out in the following table, showing
as estimatedby thecensusauthorities
thepercentageomissionin birthregistration
for 1941-50 and by Davis for I926-30, with the apparent percentagefall in
thebirthrateas recordedsincei90I-IO.
Table z
EstimatedPercentageof
Omission in Registered
Births
Provinces
1926-30
...
Assam
W. Bengal
Bihar and Orissa
UttarPradesh
Madhya Pradesh
...
Madras ...
Bombay.
W. Punjab
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..
...
...
...
...
...
45 *6
...
...
...
(27- 9)
22
...
...
25 *4
7'.
i6 i
22
1941-50
per cent of I90I-I0
194I-50
64- 0
42-
Per centFall
in BirthRate
39- 6
35 * 8
i8*o
53
46
44
40
25
13'7
i8
I8
4I
In the firstfive areas the rate of omission has increased considerablysince
I926-30 and the birthrate has fallensharplyduringthe whole period, while in
the last three areas the rate of omission has remainedstationaryand the birth
rate has also continuedat practicallythe same level. We may conclude from
systemof registrationappear to show a
this that provinces with an inefficient
steadydecline in the birthrate primarilybecause of a steadilyincreasingrate of
omissionin registrationover time.
The above conclusion is reinforcedif we consider the second featurenoted
in our earlierstudiesin West Bengal, thatis, the constancyin theabsolutenumber
of birthsregistered,given below for the provinces since I9 I I-0.2
1 The census actuariesof I95 I classifiedthe provincesas following:
A. " Registrationmay be regarded as reasonablysatisfactory. . . Bombay, Madras, the Punjab
and Madhya Pradesh."
B. " Registrationcannot be regardedas reasonablysatisfactory. . . Uttar Pradesh,Bihar, Orissa,
West Bengal and Assam." (op. Cit., p. 2). Further. . . " it appears that in states like Assam and
bad while in UttarPradeshand West Bengal it is comparativelybetter
is particularly
Bihar registration
thoughstillbad enough. In the major portionof Madhya Pradeshand Punjab it is not unsatisfactory.
As regardsbirthratesit seems clearlyestablishedthatwherethe registeredrateis lower thepercentage
omissionis high. This shows thatthe lower birthrate which is being shown in the recentyears by
thanto any substantialreductionof birthsin the
data is due more to under-registration
the registration
country", op. cit., p. 43.
ofregistration
in theofficial
healthpublications.
2 The tablehas been compiledfromtheannualfigures
are forthe yearsup to I947. The figureforBengal is forthe provincebefore
The figuresfor I94I-50
the partition.
56
A.
GHOSH
Table 3
Average Numberof BirthsRegistered,in io,ooo's
Decades
Assam
Biharand
Orissa
Bengal
Uttar
Pradesh
Madras
Bombay
67
I9II-20
...
19
I47
I32
I97
I23
I92I-30
...
20
I32
I23
I59
I42
69
I93I-40
...
24
I4I
I32
I77
I67
77
I94I-50
...
I8
II0
I33
I54
i62
74
The firstfiveregionsdo not show an increasingtrendin the numbersof births

while a clearlyincreasingtrendis seen in the case of the last two regions. If
we consider the very considerable increase in the population of those areas
since I 9I I-20, a steadyrisein the numberof birthsregisteredwould be expected,
even if therehad been a substantialdeclinein fertility.Indeed, unless therehad
the numbersof birthsin all regions should
been a sensationaldecline in fertility
have shown a steady rise. It is thereforesignificantthat the provinces which
are known to have efficientsystemsof registrationshow the expected rise.
Again, as in the case of our studyof West Bengal, we can see that the rate of
decline in the registeredbirthrate is correlatedwith the rate of increasein the
population. This is demonstratedin Table 4, which compares the percentage
fallin the birthratesince I 9I I-20 withthe percentageincreasein the population.
Table 4
PercentageIncrease
of Female Population,
Province
I91I-20
Assam
...
...
...
W. Bengal ...
Biharand Orissa.
UttarPradesh.
Madhya Pradesh ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
to
66
36
7
I941-50
PercentageDecline in
RegisteredBirthRate,
19II-20
to
I94I-50
48
47
42
4I
22
I9
In spite of ratherwide divergenciesthereis a definiteassociationbetweenthe

rate of fall in the birth rate and the rate of increase of the population. This
supportsthe view thatin all these regions the rate of omiQsionis a functionof
the population increase. The constancyof the absolute number of registered
births suggests that in all these regions the registeredbirths referto a more
or less fixedsample of an increasingpopulation.
We may conclude thatthe firstsix provincesshow a tendencyto a systematic
which would occur if a fixedsample of an increasingpopulation
underestimation
were kept under observation and if the births of this fixed sample were substitutedfor those of the entire population, other errors being fairlyconstant
during the period. This being so, it is worth drawing attentionto the factors
bias referred
to.
whichmighthave producedthe systematic
It is not difficultto visualise how such a situationmay have arisen. The
registrationdepartmentsin most regions are known to be lagging behind as
THE
TREND
OF
THE
BIRTH
RATE
IN
INDIA,
57
I9II-50
regardsthe expansion of theirstaff. The traditionaland stillexistingemployee

of the village. As the population
at the village level is the headmanor chowkider
has graduallyincreased,the village area has also spreadand theburdenof work
vastly increased without any augmentationof the staffto take over the extra
burden. The headmanhas been forcedto a simplesolution. He has not increased
his coverage withthe increaseof work in his jurisdiction. He has been covering
the original sample and thus tracingthe vital events of the same population as
in the formeryears,this coverage being determinedby contiguityand accessibility. In recordingthe birthsand deaths of a practicallyfixedpopulation he
is also subject to some omission. But this rate of omission, as far as his fixed
sample is concerned,is practicallyconstant. That is, he is working with the
same level of efficiency.Registeringthe vital historyof a fixedpopulation with
a constantrate of omission has produced severalfeaturesin his records.
(i) The shortrange rise and fallin the area is correctlyreflectedin the sample
and is correlatedwiththe rise and fallin the regionas a whole.
(ii) As estimatesof total births or deaths his records become increasingly
deficientin proportionto the population increase withinthis legal jurisdiction.
In regionswith a staticpopulationhe has maintainedthe same level of efficiency
while in regions with a rapidlyincreasingpopulation his record of births or
deaths loses all semblanceto reality.
In all the firstsix provinces mentionedbefore (i.e., Assam, Bengal, Bihar,
Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh) this force had been at work and
thereforethe correctionformule which were devised for West Bengal may be
applied in all these regions. The threeexceptionsto this rule are the provinces
of Bombay, Madras and the Punjab. But theseare exceptionswhich demonstrate
the rule. The firstsix provinces discussed beforeare all provinceswhich were
settledtemporarilyor permanentlywith privatelandlords. In all these regions
the collectionof land revenueand otheressentialrevenueoperationsare entrusted
forthispurpose. The governto privatelandlords,who maintaintheirown staff
officerwith no important
is
a
kind
of
welfare
ment employedvillage headman
In
the
other
administrativeresponsibilities.
provinces (i.e. Bombay, Madras
These
three
is
different.
the
case
the
provincesare knownas ryotwari
and
Punjab)
the
collects
revenue
the
in
which
directlyfrom the rural
areas,
government
is thus the agency
headman
The
the
headman.
village
people through
village
on
carries
administrative
functions.
the
which
important
through
government
in
areas
settled
with
while
that
landlords
the
is
understandable
It
private
to
of
the
no
heed
to
the
has
requests
villagefunctionary augment
government paid
his staffto keep pace with the increasingwork, it has taken care to see that
areas to collect the
adequate staffis maintainedin the directlysettledryotwari
in which the
functions
out
other
and
to
revenue
carry
important
necessary
in the
a
in
deterioration
This
has
resulted
is
gradual
government interested.
in
the
landlord-settled
headman
the
the
of
directly
areas,though
coverage
village
settledprovinces have maintainedapproximatelya constantlevel of efficiency.
The problemof correctingthe registrationstatisticsfor the two separategroups
of provincesmay thus be consideredas requiringtwo distinctapproaches.
E
58
A.
GHOSLT
III
therateof omissionin the
In thepresentsectionwe shallattempt
to estimate
groupof privately
settledprovinceswhichhave a steadilydeteriorating
system
forthisgroupofprovinceswas devised
ofregistration.
The correction
formula
in theearlierpaperas follows:
Let PObe theinitialfemalepopulationin a regionandBo thenumberofbirths
on an averagebo out
occurring
thereat timeto. Let thevillageofficial
register
of Bo birthsin the sameperiod,coveringpo women. His initialcorrection
be Bo/bo. At timet1 let thefemalepopulationriseto p1.
factorwill therefore
is stillcoveringonlypo females. Let his new birthregisterbe
But the official
bl, whichwill be of the orderof bo,subjectto smallchanges. To correcthis
recordsforboth the initialomissionand theincreasedue to a fixedcoverage
forcorrection
we arriveat theformula
as follows:
in an increasing
population,
bl P1iBo
As theratioP1/Pocan be easilyevaluatedforspecificdecadesfromthecensus,
recordof birthsforanyspecificperiodwill enableus to estimate
thecorrected
theinitialerrorbo /BO,I Taking the initialdecade as i9i i-zo, we obtainthe
followingratiosof the averagefemalepopulationsof succeedingdecadesto
thatof I9II-zo.
Table 5
Ratio of Average Female Populationof SucceedingDecades
to I9II-20
Decade
I9 II-20
I92I-30
I93I-40
I94I-50
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..
Assam
B. and 0.
U.P.
I, 00
II 3
I-40
I, 00
I104
I1i6
I*27
I, 00
I-OI
I1I2
I*27
i66
M.P.
W. Bengal
I* 00
I I 00
I02
i-o6
I I
I*22
I I
i6
I36
as the initialdecadeis, of course,arbitrary

and has
The selectionof I9II-20
are
not
units
available
beentakenbecausedataon thepresent
provincial
uniformly
beforethisdate. Butit can be easilyshownthatifwe takeanyarbitrary
period
and its populationas the initialstarting
pointsuch a selectionwill not affect
theresultprovidedthetotalomissionof thisperiodis also takenas theinitial
as follows:
omission. This maybe demonstrated
be t4 , also
Let theinitialperiodbe to and the periodunderconsideration
let ti be anyintermediate
period. Then the correctionfactorby our formula
fortheomissionin theithperiodwillbe
Bi Pi Bo
bi Po -bo
1 In the earlierpaper the ratioPI /Pohas been takenas representing
themarriedfemalepopulationof
age I -50, which is the relevantpopulation for birthcorrectionin our formula. But owing to the
of obtainingdetailsby age over the entireperiod,and speciallyfor the partitionedareas this
difficulty
populationhas been replacedby the totalfemalepopulation. However, our data will not be affected
degree. The ratiosof totalfemalepopulationin the two decades and theadult female
in anysignificant
populationin the two decades are generallyquite close.
THE
TREND
OF
THE
BIRTH
RAT'E
IN
INDIA,
1911-50
59
This simplyimpliesthatifthetotalomissionin theithperiodis due onlyto the

initialomissionrateandthepopulationgrowthduringthisperiod,whichgrowth
has been completely
excludedfromthe currentcoverage,thenthe correction
factorforthecurrent
periodmaybe obtainedbyweighting
theinitialcorrection
factorby theratioofthetwo populations.
Now usingtheithperiodas theoriginalperiodwe obtainthecorrection
factor
fort4 j in thesamewayas follows:
Pi+ *Bi
Ps *bs
in theabove expression
forBi/bitheexpression
We can substitute
given earlier
in termsof theinitialperiodto, as follows:
P
P +*Pi
BoP
Pi rPo 0
Bi
B+j?
Pi_b_
Pi +-Bo
PO+bo
in thisderivation
The assumptions
is thesameas in ourmainderivation
ofB1
whichis discussedearlierin thissection. This is thattheheadmanis covering
an approximately
fixedpopulationwitha constant
andthatthepopulaefficiency
tionwhichis escapinghis coveragehas thesamerateof birthas thepopulation
the selectionof any
whichis beingcoveredby him. Withtheseassumptions
periodas theinitialperiodand its totalomissionas theinitialomissiondo not
thecalculationof a laterperiod.
affect
to thatin I9II-20
as
Using the ratiosof the femalepopulationin I94I-50,
oftherateofomissionin I 9I I-20 (which
givenin Table S we obtainan estimate
initialperiod)fromthe censusestimateof thetotal
in thiscase is our arbitrary
omissionin I94I-5o as follows:
P1941-50 B1911-20_
B1941-50.
P1911-20
b1941-50
b1911-20.
whereB standsfortheactualbirthsand b standsfortherecordedbirths.Table 6

gives the initialrate of omissionin our arbitrary
period (I9Ii-zo) as given
below:
Table 6
InitialRate of Omission
(per cent) as derived
frompresentFormula
Province
Assam ..
W. Bengal
...
BiharandOrissa
UttarPradesh ...
MadhyaPradesh
...
3 5 *8
...
..22-6
I
...
2I.5
i8. 5
0o0
6o
A.
GHOSH
Usingthe populationratiosof Table 5 withthe above ratesin our formula

for
we arriveat the rateof omissionforthe successivedecadesfromi9ii-20
thedifferent
provincesas follows:
Table 7
Rate of Omission (per cent)
Decade
...
I9II-20
...
1921-30
1931-40 .57
1941-50
...
Assam
B. and 0.
W. Bengal
35 8
22-6
210 5
23 7
32-1
42 1
...
...
...
...
472
...
...
64.o
224.8
32.3
39 4
M.P.
U.P.
i8.5
200
?5
27.2
35 8
0?6
10- 3
i8
Comparisonof these estimatedratesof omissionwith ratesestimatedby

savefor
KingsleyDavis forthedecadeI92I-30, is possibleforall theprovinces,
West Bengal.' In the followingtablewe have comparedthe ratesestimated
by Davis for I926-30 withour ratefor I92I-30 exceptforWestBengal. For
ratesestimated
alternative
WestBengalwe have substituted
by us fromfertility
enquiriesas givenin theearlierpaper.2
Table 8
Province
...
Biharand Orissa ...
...
...
...
W. Bengal
...
UttarPradesh
...
...
Madhya Pradesh ...
Omission
Rate by
presentFormula
foa I92I-30
Omission Rate
estimatedby
Davis for I926-30
64- 0
47 2
23 7
24- 8
20-0
5. 6
45 . 6
(27- 9)
25 . 4
I94I-50
...
Assam
Census
Omission
Rate for
...
...
...
...
...
42-I
39-4
3 5 *8
i8*o
22. 3
7*I
and thosearrivedat by Davis by thereverse

our own estimates
Considering
survivalmethod,thetwo setsare quiteclose in mostof thecases. It appears,
forthewholeregioncomprising
thatourmethodgivesvalidestimates
therefore,
to noteas in Table 7 thatin WestBengal,
thesesix provinces.It is interesting
Biharand Orissa,and UttarPradeshratesof omissionin I9II-zo werefairly
as earlyas in I9II-20.
This is
close. Assamhad a poor systemof registration
in Assamare verypoor. It is mostlikelythat
quitelikelyforcommunications
the ratesof omissionin Assamand East Bengal(now East Pakistan)are quite
highand of the sameorderforthe samereason. MadhyaPradeshhad almost
in the earlieryears,but with populationincrease the
completeregistration
in thisregion. The highlyvarying
situationis fastdeteriorating
everywhere
ratesofpopulationincrease
rateof omissiontodayis theresultbothof differing
initialrateswithwhichtheregionsstarted.
and also of thedifferent
1 Davis has calculatedthe omission rate in I926-30 for Bengal as a whole. We have shown in a
note in the appendixthatthisrate is quite consistent,but is not applicable to West Bengal.
2 Loc. cit.
THE
TREND
OF
THE
BIRTH
RATE
INDIA,
IN
6i
I9II-510
IV
systemin six
It has been seen thatout of nine provinces,the registration
the actualnumberof births. But we have also
underestimating
is increasingly
seenthatBombay,Madrasand thePunjabhave a moreor less constantrateof
with no evidenceof any increasinginaccuracy. The following
registration
periodsshow thatthe
fordifferent
figuresforthe ratesof omissionestimated
rates of omissionhave not increasedand may even have decreasedslightly
in theseprovinces.
Table 9
Rate of Omission (per cent)
Madras
Bombay
Punjab
..
...
...
Census
Davis
Census
Province
I90I-I Iz926-30
.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1941-50
i6* I
i9. 8
26.5
22z8
7-0
13.7
i8 6
4.I
declinein therateof
It is not safeto suggestthattherehas beena consistent
in I926-30 and I94I-5o are small,whiletheestimate
omissionas thedifferences
seemssomewhathigh. But we shallnot be greatlyin
forMadrasin I90I-I0
rateofomissionfortheseprovincesduring19I I-50.
errorifwe assumea constant
estimatethe birthsfor Bombay,Madras and the Punjab
We can therefore
by workingon theaveragerateof omissionduringig26-5o as derivedby combiningthetwo ratesforI926-30 and I949-5o. The averagerateis takenon the
duringthisperiodare not significant.In any
assumptionthatthe differences
case theorderof difference,
especiallyduringI926-30 and I949-50, is not large
additionalerrorin theestimates.
enoughto causeanysignificant
Calculatingthebirthsforthe firstsix provinceson the basis of the formula
discussedin SectionIII, and forthelast threeon thebasis of a constanterror
birthrateforthe
of omissionas discussedabove,we give below the corrected
forthedecadesI9II-20, I92I-30, I93I-40 andI94I-50.
nineprovinces
Table io
BirthRate per I,000 PopulationReconstructedby
PresentFormulxfor
Province
Assam ...
Bihar and Orissa
W. Bengal ...
UttarPradesh ...
MadhyaPradesh
...
Madras ...
...
Bombay
...
Punjab.
I9II-20
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
50'3
50-I
4I*8
5I*2
45 5
36 I
43 3
456
1921-30
5I.3
46.3
37 6
42.5
43.4
37 5
45 0
42-3
I93I-40
1941-50
59 8
46 6
40 6
47 0
46.7
37 0
40?9
40'8
46.7
44 8
35 4
38 o
45-2
36 2Z
4I.3
4I.I
Biharand Orissa,Bengaland theUnited

In termsof thesecorrected
figures,
to decline,thoughthisdeclineis ratheroffset
Provincesshowa slighttendency
6z
A.
GHOSH
The provincesof Assam,Bombay,MadhyaPradesh,Madras

duringI93I-40.
withonlyrandomfluctuaremainedstationary
and the Punjabhave practically
tions. The birthratesforthecombinedprovinceson an all-Indiascale,ignoring
the regionswhichwere previouslynot partof BritishIndia, are givenbelow
birthratesshownforcomparison.
withtheregistered
Table
ii
Registered
BirthRate
per i,ooo
Decade
Reconstructed
BirthRate
per i,ooo from
Formule
EstimatedRate
of Omission
(per cent) in
Registration
All Provinces
I9II-20
1921-30
I93I-40
I941-50
...
...
...
. -...
...
...
45 5
37 5
...
42'4
45 2
38- 8
34-2
34 2
..
*27.5
i8-6
19.4
24.4
29 2
For the group as a whole trendis perhapsslightlydownwards,with an

of the
to notethattheeffect
But it is interesting
riseduringI93I-40.
offsetting
series,
thisrisein theregistered
errorof omissionwithtimehas offset
increasing
downwardtrendduringthe whole period.
thusappearingto show a definite
deterioraratesofomissionindicatethattherehasbeena consistent
The estimated
theperiodbut becauseit has been gradualand
throughout
tionin registration
has not disturbedthe apparenttrend,it is not easilydetected. Unlessthereis
thisapparentdownwardtrendwillcontinue
system,
a changein theregistration
in thefuture.
statistics
to appearin theregistered
V
deathsmaybe obtained
ofinfant
oftheextentofunder-registration
An estimate
by methodsanalogousto those used for the correctionof birthregistration.
formulaexpressedas
we can use a correction
In the case of infantmortality
follows:
D
2d,
Bi -Do
D o -do
whereD1 is theactualnumberofinfantdeathsin theperiodunderconsideration;

taking
di aretherecordeddeathsin theperiod;B1 and Bo arethebirthsactually
initial
and
the
under
consideration
and
the
period;
period
place during
Do
and do are theactualand therecordedinfantdeathssuchthatdo/Dois theinitial
in thiscaseis theuse oftheratioofbirths
The onlyalteration
rateofregistration.
theincreasein omission
insteadof thatof thefemalepopulationforcorrecting
due to the increasein the population. Whilethe ratioof populationincrease
wouldhave givenus similarresultsthebirthratiomaybe morerelevantin the
case of infantdeathsthana simpleindexof populationincrease. In any case
in theresultby eithercalculationwas foundnotto be verylarge.
thedifference
TREND
THE
OF
THE
BIRTH
RATE
IN
INDIA,
63
1911-50
we
Fromour earlierestimatesof the errorof omissionin birthregistration,
can evaluatethevalueof B1IBoforthefirstsixprovinces.As in thecase of the
of totalomissionduringanyperiodwillnow enable
estimates
birthcorrection,
us to evaluatedo/Do,or the initialrate of deathregistration.Adoptingthe
in thecensusof 193 I as thecorrectrateofinfant
mortality
actuarialrateofinfant
and takingour estimatesof the correctednumberof
for I92I-30
mortality
ofinitialomissionin theregistration
we arriveat thefollowing
percentage
births,
ofinfantmortality.
Table iz
EstimatedRate of
Omission in Infant
MortalityRegistration
(per cent)
Province
...
W. Bengal ...
Assam
Biharand Orissa ...
. ...
UttarPradesh
Madhya Pradesh ...
54-9
56. 2
54 9
46.o
.
...
29.7
38. 5
Madras
Bombay
...
...
00
The firstset of figuresshows the initialrateof omissionin provinceswith

an increasingomissionin time,while the second set shows the ratefor the
provincesof Bombayand Madras,witha constantrate of omission. In the
Punjabtherateofomissionis almostnegligible.
The followingtableshowsthe rateof omissionduringthefourdecadesfor
thedifferent
provinces,withtheexceptionof thePunjab.
Table
I3
Rate of Omission (per cent)in RegisteredInfantMortality

Decades
I9II-20
Assam
...
I921-30
...
I93I-40
I94I-50
..
...
56'2
6i*2
68.7
736
West
Bengal
Bihar
Orissa
Uttar
Pradesh
47 8
48v8
55 ?
54 9
56 6
46o
46 5
6I.7
6i-i
64 5
53 4
57 5
Madhya
Pradesh
Bombay
38.5
I0s0
38.5
5 7
i8 i
38.5
3855
Madras
29.7
29.7
29.7
29'7
featureof theomissionrateis thatwhilethenumberof infant

An interesting
the infant
thishas not affected
underestimated,
deathshas been progressively
increasein the
rateto the same extentbecauseof the simultaneous
mortality
of births. The net effectmay be seen in Table 14,
under-registration
rateto thecorrected
whichshows the ratio of the recordedinfantmortality
rate.
64
A.
GHOSH
Table I4
RegisteredInfantMortalityRate as percentageof Corrected
InfantMortalityrate
Assam
Decades
1911-20
...
...
1921-30 ...
1931-40
1941-50
. **
68.4
73 5
...
72c9
73 3
...
Bihar
Orissa
West
Bengal
Uttar
Pradesh
58.4
6o-8
56-8
56-6
72 4
70'7
67-4
65*7
66-2
66-9
63c7
63*3
Madras
Bombay
77.8
83.1
79-1
8o-8
84.I
75I
79c2
77 4
formulaforinfantmortality.Thus
This resultfollowsfromour correction
if D1 be the numberof infantsactuallydying,and B1 the numberof infants
actuallyborn,thenby our formulawe have
D1
B1
d1BDDo
. bjPjBo
Pobo
Bodo
Thus as Bl/Bois verynearlyequal to P1/Poin mostcases,theratioduringthe

to thetwo initialratesof omissionof births
decadestendsto be proportionate
and deaths.
arrivedat by our formulxmaybe comparedwithsimilarrates
The estimates
methods. Table I 5 gives the
using different
computedby otherauthorities
and
I92I-30
estimatedratesas calculatedby the censusactuariesfor I90I-II,
I94I-5O.1
Table I 5
Rates of InfantMortalityper i,ooo Live Births.
Province
Regis- Actu- Rate Regis- Actu- Regis- Rate Regis- Actu- Rate
from tered arial tered from tered arial from
tered arial
Rate Form- Rate Rate FormRate Form- Rate Rate
Rate
ulx
ulx
ulk
1911-20
Bengal (W.)
Assam ...
Bihar f
U.P.
...
Madras ...
Bombay ...
1901-I1
1911-20
205
298
208
298
283
330
1921-30
1941-50
1931-40
i8i
242
159
230
115
i6o
147
143
235
134
236
125
237
202
221
193
298
304
178
242
I56
214
148
237
233
298
352
178
266
153
240
120
212
210
197
274
237
225
219
152
237
202
211
296
271
177
I64
207
154
237
208
178
178
237
in thecensus
are based on theratesof infantmortality
As our own estimates
and I94I-50
of
I90I-II
the
other
two
estimates
of I93I, thecomparisonwith
is quitegood in thecase of thefigures
of I94I-50
is ofinterest.The agreement
wheretheupperrangeof theactuarialrateis given,thoughin thecase of the
that
not so close. It shouldbe remembered
it is naturally
decade of Iqoi-ii
1 Census
p. i6i.
ofIndia1931, vol. i, Report,
Censusof India 195I. Paper no. 2, LifeTables,195I Census,Table 9, page 20 (onlytheupper
limitof the estimatedrangehas been given here.)
THE
TREND
OF
THE
BIRTH
RATE
IN
INDIA,
I9II-50
65
thecensuscalculations
areforrather
widerareasandnotforindividual
provinces.
Consideringthe veryapproximate
natureof theseestimates,
the agreement
is
byno meanspoor.
VI
in birthsand infantdeathsmaynow
The calculationsof under-registration
be used-toestimate
theapproximate
numberofbirthsandthenumberssurviving
for specificcensusyears. In thissectionwe shallgive such estimatesforthe
yearsI920,
I930, I940
andI950.
It mustbe notedthatthecorrection
system
discussedinthispaperis a correction
foran averageovera decaderather
thanfora specifcyear. Randomfluctuations
in therateof omissionin specific
yearswillnotbe allowedforin ourcorrection.
But it has beenpointedout earlierthattherateof omissiondoes not showany
the orderof sucherrorshould
violentchangefromyearto yearand therefore
the results,also
not be large. For comparison,Table i6, whichsummarizes
censusand the
gives the numberrecordedat age o-i in the corresponding
numberof birthsestimated
by the censusactuariesof I95 I on thebasis of the
ofage o-i in respective
censusyears.
censusenumerations
ofinfants
At theoutsetit maybe usefulto pointout thattheestimates
of birthsmade
infants
by the I95 I censusactuarieson thebasisof theenumerated
are,on their
own admission,too low for the followingreasons: First,no correctionfor
infantdeaths,which
underenumeration
has beenmade,and secondly,registered
arethemselves
underestimates,
havebeenused. The actuaries'opinionis quoted
below.'
briefly
In general,
it maybe seenthatthereis evidenceofsignificant
underenumerationin the censuscountsof infantsaged o-i in all thethreecensusesof I92I,
1931 and 1941 in varying
degrees. In 195 I thereis muchlessevidenceofunderenumeration
in mostof theprovinces,
and thisagreeswiththegeneralopinion
of theactuariesof theI951 censuswho comment
as follows:
" Leaving out Assam,practically
all the past censusesin the variousstates
of infants. Only I95 I censusdata except
give evidenceof underenumeration
forMadrasdo not give evidenceof underenumeration
accordingto themethod
adoptedhere."2
VII
ratesof
Using our estimatesof actualbirths,we mayexaminethe fertility
the
shows
of
Table
number
births
marriedwomen of reproductive
age,
I7
per i,ooo marriedwomenaged i1-503 in the different
provincesduringthe
fourdecades.
1 " In all probabilitythereis underenumeration
(in the census) and not overenumeration.. . . If
anythingit may well be understateddue to omission of infantsfrombeing recordedin the census.
The latteris more trueof the Indian census. It therefore
appearsthatthe extentof omissionin registrationbroughtout . . . maywell be takenas an estimateof the lower side of under-registration.
" If anything,the registeredvalue of I which is adopted in the calculationsis an underestimate[of
infantmortality].The combinedeffectis thatthe expression(I-r. I) is overstatedwith the consequent
resultthatthe numberof births. . . is understated." CensusofIndia,Paper no. 6, I954, " Estimation
of Birthand Death Rates in India during I94I-50, p. 50.
2 Cenrus
ofIndia,Paperno. 6, I954, p. 53.
3 Where figuresof age compositionfor marriedwomen were not available for some regions for
certainperiods,estimateshave been used.
66
A.
GHOSH
Table i6
Births
Registered
Our
Census
Number Estimated
Estimate
Counts of
by
of Infants of Births
Infants
Province Years
Actuaries
for
aged (o-i)
(o-i) at
Years of fromCensus
from
EnumeraCounts
Census
Formula*
tion
_______ ______ * ___________ ___________ ___________I__
I22,404
I920
I34,858
I60,393
203,936
I40,649
I86,844
I930
Assam
Bengal
(West)
Bihar
Orissa
Uttar
Pradesh
Madhya
Pradesh
I54,796
2I2,I40
I90,660
266,380
Estimateof Underenumeration
of Infantsper
cent of
Regis- Census
tered Counts
Births36
47
I9
20
59
64
32
5
693,467
2I
13
678,032
24
I940
I950
I93,500
269,840
287,I9I
230,990
I56,I55
IIO,I38
2I3,200
290,370
364,848
305,938
I920
I930
5Io,o6I
58I,962
505,9I9
5II,280
544,372
5I7,339
603,408
675,600
I940
I950
565,250
59I,474
925,506
684,7I6
632,059
65o,686
957,209
76I,450
3I
42
34
I5
86o,6oo
I,658,845
I,73I,I07
I,382,328
32
39
45
2,039,499
2,1II6,466
2,308,509
2,0I7,920
I9
20
27
36
I9
20
34
I940
I950
2,ooi,2i8
I,I57,I24
I920
I930
I940
I950
I,388,700
I,497,I78
I,37I,700
2,o56,o50
I,568,855
I,794,000
2,I59,906
I1,806,004
657,603
440,880
I,I7I,966
837,69I
I,662,I92
I,693,I73
I,680,595
I1,295,505
946,270
2,I25,49I
I,642,848
I,700,758
I,5I4,853
2,2I9,I58
I920
388,252
462,I23
544,08I
470,2I0
544,08I
I930
542,593
633,926
664,2I7
653,254
703,6I9
62I,586
707,758
720,429
739,I79
I940
408,529
Madras
I920
I930
I940
I950
969,269
I,I39,207
I,I40,700
1,280,i90
Bombay
I920
I930
I940
6I2,500
I920
I930
I950
Punjab
Our
Estimates
of Births
fromthe
Formula
I940
I950
55I,I74
627,946
485,304
I,025,492
I,48I,I64
i,647,5I2
i,622,745
I,023,656
I,463,962
I,584,I98
I,538,540
I,094,972
I,308,68I
I,292,724
I,408,349
604,609
603,945
766,578
809,035
593,I75
7I6,952
755,8I7
38I,492
356,307
402,369
394,957
395,494
437,486
570,I45
647,732
362,200
442,870
485,892
443,548
522,404
479,429
I4
700,05I
I0
i8
3I
2
I1,204,30I
I1,722,237
i,863,762
I,8I0,047
I5
I5
I5
I5
9
24
3I
22
2I
4
I6
750,854
907,534
956,730
2I
24
2I
444,3I9
455,I77
25
420,478
498,727
* These estimateshave been arrivedat by correcting

theregisteredbirthand infantdeathsforspecific
census years,and by applyinga furthercorrectionfor deathsoccurringthroughoutthe calendaryear.
Table I 7
Birthsper I,ooo MarriedWomen aged I5-50
by Decades
Province
I9II-20
Assam
...
...
...
W. Bengal
BiharandOrissa...
UtterPradesh ...
Pradesh...
Madhya
Madras.
Bombay ...
E. Punjab.
India
..
...
...
...
. ...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
284
I92I-30
290
..
...
...
...
...
...
..
...
Io
...
259
239
245
237
2I7
.260
...
...
237
254
225
230
I93I-40
I94I-50
334
267
207
237
2II
I9I
230
2I7
2I7
I96
234
I95
I82
I85
2I4
209
239
i8i
208
253
224
228
200
THE
TREND
OF
THE
BIRTH
RATE
IN
INDIA,
1911-50
67
the sametypeof movement

as wereseen
ratesshow practically
The fertility
provinces. Thereis a slighttendency
in the crudebirthratesforthe different
towardsa declinein West Bengal,Bihar,Orissa and UttarPradesh. Assam,
trend. For
Madras,Bombayand the Punjab (East) do not show any definite
as a wholethetrendseemsto be one ofveryslightdecline,and this
thecountry
withthatarrivedat byDavis.'
conclusionis in broadagreement
the
The relativepositionsof the provinceshave remainedapproximately
ratesin Assamand thePunjab
theperiod. Thus thefertility
samethroughout
higherwhilethe rateforMadrasis generallylowerthanthatof
are generally
fromeach otheronlyto a
the otherprovinces. Those otherprovincesdiffer
natureof the estimates
minordegree. Indeed, consideringthe approximate
shouldnotbe regardedas verysignificant.
suchdifferences
be concludedthatduringtheperiod
it maytherefore
theresults,
Summarising
levelsinIndia. Further
hasbeena veryslightchangeinthefertility
1911-50 there
regionshave remainedalmostconstant,such
the relativepositionsof different
theentireareaequally.
changesas did takeplaceaffected
APPENDIX
NoteonBengal
We have seenearlierthatKingsleyDavis's estimateof a rateof omissionof
fromour estimateof 27.9 per
4I *2 per centforBengalin I926-30 is different
to notethatDavis's estimate
It is interesting
centforWestBengalin I92I-30.
of the errorof omissionat 4I 2 per centforBengalis also borneout by the
ofthecensusactuariesof I 93I, who putthefigureat 37 percentduring
estimate
Acceptingthecensusestimateof an omissionrateof 37 per cent,the
I92I-30.
birthrategivesus a figureof4I 9 perthousand.Usingthiscorrected
corrected
byusingour formula.
ratewe can workbackto therateof omissionin I9II-20
forBengal as a
to I9II-20
The ratioof populationincreaseduringI92I-30
wholewas I 05. Accordingto our formulatheinitialomissionratein I9II-20
of I92I beingz6-4 percent,which
comesout as 29 percent,thecensusestimate
agreesfairlywell withour estimate.It is thusevidentthatworkingback to
withother
our formulaforBengalas a whole givesfiguresconsistent
I9II-20
estimates,acceptinga figureroughlyequal to Davis's estimatefor I926-30.
We may,therefore,
safelysaythattherateforBengalas a wholeforlaterperiods
is higher than that of West Bengal. The omission rate for I949-50 for West
is lowerthanwhatwouldbe obtained
bythecensusactuaries
Bengalas calculated
if we
forBengal as a whole duringthisperiod. This is quite understandable
compare rates of omission of Assam with those of West Bengal in I94I-50.
In I949-50 therateof omissionforAssamwas 64 percentagainst42 I percent

forWestBengal. East Bengal,beinga verybackwardarea as regardstransport
and beingverydenselypopulated,it is morelikelythat
and communications
placed
its rateof omissionwill be nearerto thatof Assamwhichis similarly
" It
1 " There is some evidence here that afterI92I the birthrate startedto decline slightly"....
would not do to extrapolatethe past trendpartlybecause of possible errorsin the figuresand partly
because thereis hardlyany trend,observable", Davis, op. cit.,p. 69.
68
A.
GHOSH
thanto thatof highlyurbanisedWestBengal. The followingtableshowsthe

relevant
figures:
RegisteredBirth
Rate for
Bengal
Decade
19II-20
I92I-30
...
..
...
.
32 8
28 5
Corrected
BirthRate
Bengal
44*7
4I-9
Omission Rate
per cent
26 (census) 29 (formula)
37 (census)
41
(Davis)
As partitionof the provincetook place in I946 the censusof I 9I is limited

ofbothEast andWestBengalthusshows
to theWestBengalarea. Our scrutiny
thatit would be wrongto compareDavis's estimateforthe whole of Bengal
have
withtheareaincludedin WestBengalwhichis whatthecensusauthorities
done.

The Trend of The Birth Rate in India, 1911-50

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The Trend of The Birth Rate in India, 1911-50

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Population Investigation Committee

The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50

The Trendof theBirthRatein India, I9I

estimatethe ratesof omissionfor I9II-20,

1 A. Ghosh, "Demographic Trends in India during I90I-50

Crude BirthRate per i,ooo (registered)during

* FiguresforBengal and Punjab for I90I-I0

referto the provincesbeforethepartition.

In the firstfiveprovinces(includingBihar and Orissa as one unit as in earlier

per cent of I90I-I0

In the firstfive areas the rate of omission has increased considerablysince

I926-30 and the birthrate has fallensharplyduringthe whole period, while in

The firstfiveregionsdo not show an increasingtrendin the numbersof births

In spite of ratherwide divergenciesthereis a definiteassociationbetweenthe

regardsthe expansion of theirstaff. The traditionaland stillexistingemployee

as the initialdecadeis, of course,arbitrary

This simplyimpliesthatifthetotalomissionin theithperiodis due onlyto the

whereB standsfortheactualbirthsand b standsfortherecordedbirths.Table 6

Usingthe populationratiosof Table 5 withthe above ratesin our formula

Comparisonof these estimatedratesof omissionwith ratesestimatedby

Biharand Orissa ...

and thosearrivedat by Davis by thereverse

Biharand Orissa,Bengaland theUnited

The provincesof Assam,Bombay,MadhyaPradesh,Madras

For the group as a whole trendis perhapsslightlydownwards,with an

whereD1 is theactualnumberofinfantdeathsin theperiodunderconsideration;

The firstset of figuresshows the initialrateof omissionin provinceswith

Rate of Omission (per cent)in RegisteredInfantMortality

featureof theomissionrateis thatwhilethenumberof infant

Thus as Bl/Bois verynearlyequal to P1/Poin mostcases,theratioduringthe

limitof the estimatedrangehas been given here.)

* These estimateshave been arrivedat by correcting

the sametypeof movement

In I949-50 therateof omissionforAssamwas 64 percentagainst42 I percent

thanto thatof highlyurbanisedWestBengal. The followingtableshowsthe

As partitionof the provincetook place in I946 the censusof I 9I is limited

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