Journal of the Transportation Research Board

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD

NO.

1739

Evaluating Intelligent
Transportation Systems,
Advanced Traveler
Information Systems, and
Other Artificial Intelligence
Applications
Planning and Administration
Click on article title to reach abstract; abstracts link to full textclick on Full Text icon.

CONTENTS
Foreword

Comparison of Low-Fidelity TRANSIMS and High-Fidelity CORSIM Highway Simulation Models with
Intelligent Transportation System Data
L. R. Rilett, Kyu-Ok Kim, and Bryan Raney

ARTIMIS Telephone Travel Information Service: Current Use Patterns and User Satisfaction
Lisa Aultman-Hall, Sarah Bowling, and Jill Clemons Asher

Likely Users of Advanced Traveler Information Systems: Evidence from the Seattle Region
Shomik Raj Mehndiratta, Michael A. Kemp, Jane E. Lappin, and Eric Nierenberg

Benefit-Cost Evaluation of Traveler Information: Seattles Washington State Department of

Transportation Website
Douglass B. Lee, Jr.

Seattle Metropolitan Model Deployment Initiative Evaluation: Results and Key Findings from Modeling
Karl Wunderlich, James Bunch, and James Larkin

Fast Emergency Vehicle Preemption Systems

Shuetsu Shibuya, Toshihiro Yoshida, Zuiki Yamashiro, and Makoto Miyawaki

Assessment of Rural Intelligent Transportation System Wireless Communications Solutions

Qingyan Yang, Virginia Sisiopiku, Jim A. Arnold, Paul Pisano, and Gary Nelson

Estimating an Origin-Destination Table Under Repeated Counts of In-Out Volumes at Highway Ramps:
Use of Artificial Neural Networks
Shinya Kikuchi and Mitsuru Tanaka

Dynamic Estimation of Origin-Destination Travel Time and Flow on a Long Freeway Corridor:
Neural Kalman Filter
Hironori Suzuki, Takashi Nakatsuji, Yordphol Tanaboriboon, and Kiyoshi Takahashi

Performance Evaluation of Neural Networks in Concrete Condition Assessment

D. R. Martinelli and Samir N. Shoukry

Knowledge Acquisition, Verification, and Validation in an Expert System for Improved Traffic Safety
Lisa Herland, Bjrn Mller, and Rein Schandersson

Determining the Overall Value of Implemented New Technology in Transportation:

Integrated Multiple Objective-Attribute Methodology
Stephen G. Mattingly, R. Jayakrishnan, and Michael G. McNally

Transportation Research Record 1739

ISSN 0361-1981
ISBN 0-309-06742-1
Subscriber Category
IA planning and administration
Printed in the United States of America
Sponsorship of Transportation Research Record 1739
GROUP 3OPERATION, SAFETY, AND MAINTENANCE OF TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
Alison Smiley, Human Factors North, Inc. (Chairman)
Facilities and Operations Section
Jonathan Upchurch, University of Massachusetts (Chairman)
Committee on Communications
Dennis L. Foderberg, Minnesota Guidestar (Chairman)
Committee on Transportation System Management
GROUP 5INTERGROUP RESOURCES AND ISSUES
Kumares C. Sinha, Purdue University (Chairman)
Committee on Artificial Intelligence
James A. Wentworth, Federal Highway Administration (Chairman), Jeffrey Adler, Nii O. Attoh-Okine, Edmond Chin-Ping
Chang, Shih-Miao Chin, Michael J. Demetsky, Ardeshir Faghri, Safwan A. Khedr, Shinya Kikuchi, David Roy Martinelli,
Shashi Sathisan Nambisan, Prahlad D. Pant, Christopher A. Pribe, Matti T. Pursula, W. M. Kim Roddis, Rein Schandersson,
Yung-Ching Shen, Samir N. Shoukry, Brian L. Smith, Nazemeh Sobhi, Gary S. Spring, Hualiang Teng
Committee on Intelligent Transportation Systems
Richard J. Weiland, Weiland Consulting Company (Chairman), William T. Birge, Daniel Brand, G. Sadler Bridges,
Edmond Chin-Ping Chang, Melvyn D. Cheslow, Patrick J. Conroy, Eugene Farber, Robert L. French, William J. Harris, Jr.,
Leslie N. Jacobson, Christine M. Johnson, William F. Johnson, Allan M. Kirson, Job J. Klijnhout, Jane E. Lappin,
Joel E. Markowitz, Richard F. Pearlman, H. Douglas Robertson, Lyle Saxton, Michael Schagrin, Steven E. Shladover,
Heinz Sodeikat, William M. Spreitzer, Raymond E. Starsman, Joseph M. Sussman

Transportation Research Board Staff

James A. Scott, Transportation Planner
Freda R. Morgan, Administrative Assistant
Richard A. Cunard, Engineer of Traffic and Operations
Robert Hilterbrand, Administrative Assistant
Sponsorship is indicated by a footnote at the end of each paper. The organizational units, officers, and members are as of
December 31, 1999.

FOREWORD
The papers contained in this volume were among those presented at the 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research
Board in January 2000. Nearly 1,600 papers were submitted by authors; more than 1,000 were presented at the meeting; and
approximately 600 were accepted for publication in the 2000 Transportation Research Record series. The published papers will
also be issued on CD-ROM, which will be available for purchase in late 2000. It should be noted that the preprint CD-ROM
distributed at the 2000 meeting contains unedited, draft versions of presented papers, whereas the papers published in the 2000
Records include author revisions made in response to review comments.
Starting with the 1999 volumes, the title of the Record series has included Journal of the Transportation Research Board to
reflect more accurately the nature of this publication series and the peer-review process conducted in the acceptance of papers
for publication. Each paper published in this volume was peer reviewed by the sponsoring committee acknowledged at the end
of the text; members of the sponsoring committees for the papers in this volume are identified on page ii. Additional information about the Transportation Research Record series and the peer-review process can be found on the inside front cover. The
Transportation Research Board appreciates the interest shown by authors in offering their papers and looks forward to future
submissions.

Comparison of Low-Fidelity TRANSIMS and

High-Fidelity CORSIM Highway Simulation
Models with Intelligent Transportation
System Data
L. R. Rilett, Kyu-Ok Kim, and Bryan Raney
L. R. Rilett, Department of Civil Engineering and Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, College Station,
TX 77843. K.-O. Kim and B. Raney, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, College Station, TX 77843.

FULL
TEXT

In recent years there has been increased emphasis in the transportation modeling field on replacing
macroscopic supply functions with simulation models. For example, the highway supply relationship in the
Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) is based on a low-fidelity microsimulation
model. How the TRANSIMS low-fidelity highway simulation module compares with a high-fidelity model
and with empirical observations from intelligent transportation system (ITS) implementation projects
has been examined. A section of Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas, was used as a test bed and ITS data
were obtained for calibration and validation purposes. For comparison, the high-fidelity CORSIM model,
which is used extensively in North America for operational analyses, was calibrated and tested with the
same data. The two models did equally well at replicating the baseline volume data. In addition, the mean
travel time output from the calibrated TRANSIMS model tended to be about 20 percent greater than the
mean travel time from the calibrated CORSIM model. In general, the observed travel times were
found to lie between the simulated values from the TRANSIMS and CORSIM models. More important,
the link and corridor travel time variability appeared to be significantly less than the observed travel time
variability. It is hypothesized that this difference may affect certain measures of effectiveness, such as
automobile emissions, that will be used by transportation planners.

ARTIMIS Telephone Travel

Information Service
Current Use Patterns and User Satisfaction
Lisa Aultman-Hall, Sarah Bowling, and Jill Clemons Asher
L. Aultman-Hall and S. Bowling, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 50406-0281.
J. C. Asher, Division of Traffic, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort, KY 40501.

FULL
TEXT

In February and March 1999, an ARTIMIS (advanced regional traffic interactive management and
information system) traffic advisory telephone service (TATS) user satisfaction survey was conducted.
Evaluation of the Greater Cincinnati and northern Kentucky service had the following objectives:
(a) to assess overall satisfaction; ( b) to determine the preference of access with an N11 dialing code;
and ( c) to determine the influence on travel behavior. A total of 65 percent of users indicated they
would be willing to pay for the service. On average, the maximum amount people would pay per call
is $0.25. Users were asked what portion of the time the traffic information affected their travel behavior:
route taken (average, 71 percent of the time), departure time (average, 34 percent), and destination
(average, 25 percent). The information rarely affected mode used; however, users indicated that, on
average, they postponed their trips 14 percent of the time. About 80 percent of the users believed
they would personally benefit from a nationwide N11 dialing code. The study results suggest that
a nationwide three-digit access code for traffic information would be a benefit to overall system
performance. According to the analysis, the respondents indicated they make an average of 19 trips
per year to other areas where they could use a service like ARTIMIS TATS. Users change their travel
behavior as a result of the traffic information. They were very satisfied with the service. There was a
preference, and good recall, for the 211 number currently provided by the Kentucky Transportation
Cabinet and the Ohio Department of Transportation in northern Kentucky and Cincinnati, which
replaced a seven-digit number.

Likely Users of Advanced Traveler

Information Systems
Evidence from the Seattle Region
Shomik Raj Mehndiratta, Michael A. Kemp, Jane E. Lappin, and
Eric Nierenberg
S. R. Mehndiratta and M. A. Kemp, Charles River Associates Incorporated, 200 Clarendon Street, T-33,
Boston, MA 02116-5092. J. E. Lappin, U.S. Department of Transportation User Acceptance Research, EG&G at the Volpe
National Transportation Systems Center, 55 Broadway, Cambridge, MA 02142-1093. E. Nierenberg, Department of
Economics and Graduate School of Business, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.

FULL
TEXT

Findings about the claimed use of and interest in traveler information systems among segments of the
general population in the Seattle metropolitan region are reported. The research is based on data
collected from a 1997 intelligent transportation system supplement to the Puget Sound Regional
Councils transportation panel travel diary study. In general, interest in traffic information was found
to be a function of complex travel behavior, demographics, and factors related to attitudinal and
technology interest. It was also found that the potential market for advanced traveler information
systems (ATIS) includes several market segments with different needs; each is drawn to ATIS for
distinct and varying reasons. First, the so-called control seeker segment includes people who desire
greater than average control over their environment. In a traffic information context, that translates to
better knowledge of their travel times, especially in congested travel environments. The second segment
of interest, dubbed webheads, includes individuals who are very comfortable with high technology,
and it is possible that they would be drawn to ATIS at least partially through specific high-technology
dissemination media. A third segment is made up of individuals who are less comfortable with (or less
interested in) technology and are primarily interested in pretrip information, which they use to make
departure time and route choice decisions.

Benefit-Cost Evaluation of
Traveler Information
Seattles Washington State Department of
Transportation Website
Douglass B. Lee, Jr.
Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, DTS-49, Kendall Square, Cambridge, MA 02142.

FULL
TEXT

The Washington State Department of Transportation website allows those with access to a computer
and the Internet to obtain current information about traffic conditions on freeways and bridges in the
metropolitan Seattle area. Potential benefits of disseminating real-time traveler information are time
and cost savings to users as a result of informed travel choices (route, time, mode, destination, add or
forgo a trip), increased user confidence in travel choices, and reduction in congestion, pollution, and
other external costs. These benefits depend on how many users access the information, what choices
they make, how much time they save or in what other ways they find the information valuable, and how
their choices affect the transportation system. Although a good deal of this information is available for
Seattle or can be estimated from comparable contexts, the data are inadequate to determine within a
broad range whether net benefits are positive or negative. A spreadsheet model is presented that allows
relevant data to be appliedand what if numbers to be inserted where necessaryas a basis for
identifying the performance characteristics and levels needed to make a traveler information service a
worthwhile investment.

Seattle Metropolitan Model Deployment

Initiative Evaluation
Results and Key Findings from Modeling
Karl Wunderlich, James Bunch, and James Larkin
Mitretek Systems, Inc., 600 Maryland Avenue SW, Suite 755, Washington, DC 20024.

FULL
TEXT

At the request of the Joint Program Office for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) of the FHWA,
Mitretek Systems conducted a modeling analysis of ITS impacts in support of the metropolitan model
deployment initiative evaluation program. The Mitretek modeling study supports the evaluation of
the Seattle model deployment Smart Trek, testing a series of hypotheses that could not be addressed
in controlled field studies or survey research. Using both a regional planning model and a subarea
simulation, the study includes a series of experiments to quantify impacts from integrating ITS
technologies and services both across jurisdictions and between functional components. The analysis
addressed (a) subarea-wide impacts of traffic signal coordination on major arterials, (b) the impact of
integrating arterial data into the current freeway-based advanced traveler information service (ATIS),
and (c) interactions at the corridor and the regional levels from concurrent deployment of signal
coordination and the enhanced freeway and arterial ATIS. Results from that study have been
summarized, detailing findings for a 300-km2 mixed freeway and arterial subarea network drawn
from the roadway system north of downtown Seattle. The coordination of traffic signals along two
major arterials resulted in a 7 percent reduction in overall subarea delay and a 3 percent reduction in
total stops. More efficient route diversions for ATIS users result from the integration of arterial data
into the current web-based service. At currently estimated levels of ATIS usage (6 percent of travelers),
this improved diversion efficiency reduces overall subarea delay (users and nonusers) by over 3 percent.

Fast Emergency Vehicle

Preemption Systems
Shuetsu Shibuya, Toshihiro Yoshida, Zuiki Yamashiro, and Makoto Miyawaki
Traffic Bureau, Traffic Regulation Department, National Police Agency, 2-1-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku,
Tokyo Met. 100-8974, Japan.

FULL
TEXT

In an automotive society that increasingly depends on cars, the National Police Agency is tackling the
problem of operation support of emergency vehicles for incidents, accidents, and other emergency cases
in order to manage traffic appropriately. This support of emergency vehicle operations is considered to
be one of nine developing fields in Japans intelligent transportation systems. Recently, to deal with an
increasing crime rate, a growing number of accidents, and problems with the elderly, more and more
emergency vehicles are being dispatched. Against this background, it is indispensable for the police
administration, as the manager of traffic and as an important instrument for maintaining peace and
order, to help emergency vehicles in urgent situations reach the scene at the earliest possible moment
and to prevent accidents during operations. Fast emergency preemption systems have a two-way
communication function through the use of an infrared beacon, which is the key infrastructure of a
traffic control system. Such a system supports the operation of emergency vehicles in a safe and
effective manner by using route guidance and priority signal control; it also warns civilian vehicles
about approaching emergency vehicles.

Assessment of Rural Intelligent

Transportation System Wireless
Communications Solutions
Qingyan Yang, Virginia Sisiopiku, Jim A. Arnold, Paul Pisano, and Gary G. Nelson
Q. Yang, ITERIS Inc., 27301 Dequindre Road, Madison Heights, MI 48071. V. Sisiopiku, Department of Civil Engineering,
Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824. J. A. Arnold, FHWA Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, Office of
Operations Research and Development, 6300 Georgetown Pike, McLean, VA 22101. P. Pisano, FHWA, Office of Transportation
Operations, 400 Seventh Street Southwest, Washington, DC 20590. G. G. Nelson, Mitretek Systems, 600 Maryland Avenue
Southwest, Suite 755, Washington, DC 20024.

FULL
TEXT

Rural transportation systems have different features and needs than their urban counterparts.
To address safety and efficiency concerns in rural environments, advanced rural transportation
systems (ARTS) test and deploy appropriate intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies,
many of which require communication support. However, wireless communication systems that
currently serve urban areas often are not available or suitable in rural environments. Thus, a need
exists to identify communication solutions that are likely to address successfully the needs and features
of ARTS applications. Current and emerging wireless communications systems and technologies have
been systematically assessed with respect to rural ITS applications. Wireless communication functions
associated with rural ITS functions are first identified. Then requirements for applicable communication
technologies in the rural environment are defined. Existing and emerging wireless communication
systems and technologies are reviewed and evaluated by a systematic process of assessing rural ITS
wireless solutions. Finally, recommendations for future research and operational tests are offered. The
analysis results are expected to benefit rural ITS planners by identifying suitable wireless solutions for
different rural contexts.

Estimating an Origin-Destination Table

Under Repeated Counts of In-Out
Volumes at Highway Ramps
Use of Artificial Neural Networks
Shinya Kikuchi and Mitsuru Tanaka
S. Kikuchi, Transportation Engineering Program, Department of Civil Engineering, 342 DuPont Hall, University of Delaware,
Newark, DE 19716-3120. M. Tanaka, McCormick and Taylor Associates, Two Commerce Square, 10th Floor, 2001 Market Street,
Philadelphia, PA 19106.

FULL
TEXT

A method is proposed that applies an artificial neural network model to estimate an origin-destination
(O-D) matrix for a freeway network for which the data on inflow and outflow at the ramps are gathered
regularly. This problem is the same as estimating the elements of an O-D table, given that many sets of
data about the right-hand column total (trip production) and the bottom row total (trip attraction) are
available. A neural network model is developed to emulate the stimulus-response process on the freeway
traffic, in which the stimulus is the inflow at the entrance ramps and the response the outflow at the exit
ramps. After the neural network of a particular structure is trained by many sets of data (e.g., sets of
daily volumes), the weights of the neural network are found to represent the ramp-to-ramp volume
expressed in the proportion of the in-flow at the corresponding ramps. The model is applied to estimate
a ramp-to-ramp O-D table for the Tokyo expressway network. The result is compared with the actual
O-D table obtained from a survey. The model is found to be useful not only for estimating the O-D
volume with much less data than for the traditional method, but also for verifying the existence of a
pattern in the traffic flow.

Dynamic Estimation of Origin-Destination

Travel Time and Flow on a
Long Freeway Corridor
Neural Kalman Filter
Hironori Suzuki, Takashi Nakatsuji, Yordphol Tanaboriboon, and
Kiyoshi Takahashi
H. Suzuki, Y. Tanaboriboon, and K. Takahashi, School of Civil Engineering, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klongluang,
Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. T. Nakatsuji, Graduate School of Civil Engineering, Hokkaido University, Kita-13, Nishi-8, Kitaku,
Sapporo 060-8628, Japan.

FULL
TEXT

A model was formulated for estimating dynamic origin-destination (O-D) travel time and flow on a long
freeway with a neural Kalman filter originally developed by the authors. The model predicts O-D travel
times and flows simultaneously by using traffic detector data such as link traffic volumes, spot speeds,
and off-ramp volumes. The model is based on a Kalman filter that consists of two equations: state and
measurement. First, the state and measurement equations of the Kalman filter were modified to consider
the influence of traffic states for some previous time steps. Then artificial neural network models were
integrated with the Kalman filter to enable nonlinear formulations of the state and measurement
equations. Finally, a macroscopic traffic flow simulation model was introduced to simulate traffic states
on a freeway in advance and predict traffic variables such as O-D travel times, link traffic volumes, spot
speeds, and off-ramp volumes. The new model was compared with a regression Kalman filter in which
the state and measurement equations are defined by regression models. The numerical analysis indicated
that the new model was capable of estimating nonlinearity of dynamic O-D travel time and flow and
helped to improve their estimation precision under free-flow traffic states as well as congested flow states.

Performance Evaluation of Neural Networks

in Concrete Condition Assessment
D. R. Martinelli and Samir N. Shoukry
D. R. Martinelli, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506.
S. N. Shoukry, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506.

FULL
TEXT

A neural network modeling approach is used to identify concrete specimens that contain internal cracks.
Different types of neural nets are used and their performance is evaluated. Correct classification of the
signals received from a cracked specimen could be achieved with an accuracy of 75 percent for the test
set and 95 percent for the training set. These recognition rates lead to the correct classification of all the
individual test specimens. Although some neural net architectures may show high performance with a
particular training data set, their results might be inconsistent. In situations in which the number of data
sets is small, consistent performance of a neural network may be achieved by shuffling the training and
testing data sets.

Knowledge Acquisition, Verification, and

Validation in an Expert System for
Improved Traffic Safety
Lisa Herland, Bjrn Mller, and Rein Schandersson
L. Herland and R. Schandersson, Civil Engineering, VTI, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, SE-581 95
Linkping, Sweden. B. Mller, Computer Engineering, Pitch Kunskapsutveckling AB, Nygatan 35, S-582 19 Linkping, Sweden.

FULL
TEXT

KLOTS (knowledge-based local traffic safety support) is a Swedish expert system that provides advice
on traffic safety problems and countermeasures in urban areas. The system is briefly described and the
processes of knowledge collection, verification, and validation used in its development are explained.
The user defines a safety problem with input forms. The result from the system is an analysis and a list
of countermeasures, each with specific comments that reflect the problem. The principle of presenting a
list instead of a single solution is intended to make the user more active in the process of finding an
appropriate countermeasure. In practice, KLOTS may be used for providing advice, testing solutions,
and making checks. It also may be used for educational purposes. The knowledge in KLOTS was
obtained from experts during interviews and is structured in the form of rules for evaluating each
problem specified. Development of the system has indicated that the experts must have recent practical
experience of traffic safety problems. Presenting real-world cases to the experts and asking them to
explain how they would solve them has proved to be the most successful interview technique. It has been
possible to achieve a consensus among experts. Extensive testing, verification, and validation are carried
out before new versions of KLOTS are released. Both end user validation and knowledge verification
are described. Development and widespread use of the system show both the feasibility of constructing
knowledge-based systems for traffic safety and a demand for such systems.

Determining the Overall Value of

Implemented New Technology in
Transportation
Integrated Multiple Objective-Attribute Methodology
Stephen G. Mattingly, R. Jayakrishnan, and Michael G. McNally
Institute of Transportation Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine,
523 Social Science Tower, Irvine, CA 92697-3600.

FULL
TEXT

Two existing techniques are integrated and a methodology for evaluating transportation projects,
especially complex projects that involve new technologies, is created. While integrating the multiattribute
value function technique with the analytic hierarchy process, a new scaling approach is introduced
through use of a linear scaling proxy. Additionally, the approach identifies an overall worth for a project.
This overall worth provides decision makers with a quantitative value they can use to compare different
projects or to estimate and compare hypothetical results. The methodology is demonstrated in a sample
problem. The methodologys application to the Anaheim field operational test is then described. Often,
evaluations fail to look at all the potential areas a project may affect. This methodology simplifies the
process for including institutional issues in the final results of an evaluation.